Alec Baldwin: Let’s face it, it looks like Obama has this election in the bag

posted at 6:06 pm on May 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

Via Newsbusters. New poll out from PPP: With Gary Johnson running as a libertarian, Romney’s lead over Obama is down to two — in Montana. Meanwhile, over at Survey USA, Obama’s got a cushy four-point lead against Romney — in North Carolina.

Alternate headline: “Blogger drinking in the daytime again.”

ALEC BALDWIN: Well, you know, things for these guys aren’t going that well. You know the, the economy may stumble. It probably won’t stumble that badly between now and the election. For those people who look at these very handy benchmarks like the Dow, the Dow is still staying pretty well above 13,000. Which that kind of crowd of Romney’s really, really goes for. It’s the anniversary of this president getting Osama Bin Laden. And I think that the Republicans, I think that Romney, these guys are really, really getting scared. They really, they thought to themselves, after a tough primary – and they spent a lot of money on a bloody primary. It’s been a very ugly primary. I was one of the people that said very quickly that all Obama needs to do for the first month of the general election is just show clips of [Newt] Gingrich’s remarks about Romney. Just keep showing clips of Gingrich talking about Romney, in order to really, really get people off that.

Over at Nate Silver’s site, guestblogger John Sides has an interesting bunch of graphs suggesting that Obama’s more popular than he should be. What’s that mean? Well, they took 60 years of quarterly presidential job approval numbers, factored in economic data, scandals, wars, and time in office, and came up with a rough assessment of what any given president’s job approval “should” have been for a particular quarter. Funny thing about The One: Given the protracted crappiness of Obamanomics, he overperforms. A lot.

In fact, he is more popular than expected, and consistently so throughout these three years. His quarterly approval ratings are, on average, nine points higher than expected…

Only two other presidents have experienced a discrepancy between expected and actual approval in their first terms that was larger than the discrepancy in Mr. Obama’s first three years. One was George W. Bush, and this arises largely because the model doesn’t fully anticipate the quickness and size of the “rally effect” that took place after Sept. 11, 2001. The other was Ronald Reagan, whose first-term approval ratings exhibited more fluctuation than Mr. Obama’s but were about 10 points above the model’s expectations, on average.

Sides offers two possible explanations that I’ve flagged here before, more than once — personal likability plus the fact that, even now, a lot of voters out there still blame Bush for the state of the economy more than O. Some readers grumbled at me the last time I mentioned the likability gap between Obama and Romney on grounds that The One simply isn’t that likable and that personal appeal is wildly overrated when voters buckle down in October and do some hard thinking about whether they want four more years of this. I agree that few will vote for O simply because they like him more, but likability may skew their critical judgments of his policies just enough for swing voters to give him the benefit of the doubt on a second-term economic recovery, meaningful deficit reduction, etc. That is to say, likability and the “blame Bush” phenomenon aren’t completely distinct factors. Some people may be more inclined to blame Bush because they like Obama personally. Which, of course, is why his campaign is spending time doing moronic “slow jam the news” segments on Jimmy Fallon. No one with an ego the size of Obama’s wants to spend three minutes playing straight man to a late-night B-lister, but if it helps widen the likability gap, he’ll grin and bear it. (The Obama campaign’s obsession with the Seamus story is the flip side of this, of course.)

Exit question: Is that Survey USA poll trustworthy? Follow the link up top and you’ll find this in the crosstabs:

The bottom row shows the partisan split in the sample. Thirteen points in favor of the Democrats? The 2008 North Carolina exit poll showed only an 11-point spread and that was at the height of Hopenchange — and even then, Obama only won the state by 14,000 votes. C’mon.


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With Gary Johnson running as a libertarian, Romney’s lead over Obama is down to two — in Montana.

If Ron Paul were the nominee then Gary Johnson would be unlikely to run, and Ron Paul beats Obama by 49-41 in Montana, a wider margin then Romney even without Gary Johnson in the running.

FloatingRock on May 3, 2012 at 1:34 AM

Well, Drudge has up tonight that he admits now that he lied about his girlfriend…. That’s a start.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 1:26 AM

His composite birth certificate is nothing but the truth, of course.

VorDaj on May 3, 2012 at 1:35 AM

Well, Drudge has up tonight that he admits now that he lied about his girlfriend…. That’s a start.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 1:26 AM

Maybe he never had a girlfriend. Maybe he’s . . .
Well, I know that a lot of his life story he tells is pure fiction.
For example, he states he lived with his mother and father until he was two, and then Barack Sr. left for Harvard. Well, documents released show that his mother took him to Seattle, WA and enrolled in college there. By the time Ann Dunham returned to Hawaii, Barack Sr. was at Harvard. From Harvard, it was back to Kenya. So actually, the little family unit never existed.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 1:35 AM

Here’s the link to the evidence that Ron Paul is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney in Montana:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/romney-leads-obama-narrowly-in-montana.html

FloatingRock on May 3, 2012 at 1:36 AM

The practical question is whether more people desire to kick Obama out of the Oval Office, or prevent Mitt from assuming the presidency.
Amen to that.

I am Tea Party, Conservative and right after the election of our present president (sorry he has tarnished the office so much I don’t capitalize it anymore) I put a bumper sticker on my car in a deep blue state that said Proud member of the Right Wing Resistance. So I have been against Obama from his first day. Now that we have a chance to upend and kill off all of Obama plans, we get Wah Wah Wah my guy didn’t win I’m taking my conservative toys and going home. Romney wouldn’t have been my choice, but it looks like he will get the nod and I will work as hard as I can for him to unseat the communist we have in the WH now. Do I like a lot of Romney’s policies absolutely not. I dislike Obama’s policies a whole lot more. Romney may have flip flopped on issues, Obama tells bold face lies. So its either Door A or Door B. stay home and you still get one or the other. I choose the man who has a transparent past and who worked to earn his wealth, unlike the empty talking, taxpayer fleecing community organizer.

stormridercx4 on May 3, 2012 at 1:42 AM

That’s what started this side subject thread – scroll up and read my earlier comments.

platypus on May 3, 2012 at 1:29 AM

Oops, sorry. I’m really tired. I’ve read a bunch of the threads, but sorta dropped in on this one

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 1:50 AM

His composite birth certificate is nothing but the truth, of course.

VorDaj on May 3, 2012 at 1:35 AM

I believe the man has a composite identity.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 1:51 AM

Maybe he never had a girlfriend. Maybe he’s . . .
Well, I know that a lot of his life story he tells is pure fiction.
For example, he states he lived with his mother and father until he was two, and then Barack Sr. left for Harvard. Well, documents released show that his mother took him to Seattle, WA and enrolled in college there. By the time Ann Dunham returned to Hawaii, Barack Sr. was at Harvard. From Harvard, it was back to Kenya. So actually, the little family unit never existed.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 1:35 AM

This is why I’ve been on him about his birth certificate and hidden documents since early 2008. It has been incredibly depressing since then to watch any questioning of his veracity be shouted down here amid opprobium.

If people start coming around, I expect them to do the heavy lifting and actually start vetting 0bama, because I’m tired of the abuse I’ve taken on this topic for 4 years.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 1:53 AM

I believe the man has a composite identity.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 1:51 AM

Dr. Barry Jeckle and Mr. Hussein Hyde.

VorDaj on May 3, 2012 at 1:55 AM

Floating Rock, you said that Paul would take WA State. How did that turn out?

Voter from WA State on May 3, 2012 at 1:52 AM

We don’t know yet, the state convention is forthcoming.

FloatingRock on May 3, 2012 at 1:58 AM

This is why I’ve been on him about his birth certificate and hidden documents since early 2008. It has been incredibly depressing since then to watch any questioning of his veracity be shouted down here amid opprobium.

If people start coming around, I expect them to do the heavy lifting and actually start vetting 0bama, because I’m tired of the abuse I’ve taken on this topic for 4 years.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 1:53 AM

In the beginning the patriot is a scarce man, and brave, and hated and scorned. If his cause succeeds, the timid will join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot.

VorDaj on May 3, 2012 at 1:59 AM

This is why I’ve been on him about his birth certificate and hidden documents since early 2008. It has been incredibly depressing since then to watch any questioning of his veracity be shouted down here amid opprobium.

If people start coming around, I expect them to do the heavy lifting and actually start vetting 0bama, because I’m tired of the abuse I’ve taken on this topic for 4 years.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 1:53 AM

You’ve taken abuse at this site? Well, I don’t talk about the issues much, but like you, I’ve followed things for 4 years. I have faith that the truth will eventually come out. It always does. The six-month investigation conducted by Sheriff Arpaio’s Cold Case Posse gives me hope. Unassailable, irrefutable evidence that the long-form birth certificate Obama presented to the country on April 27, 2011 is a digital forgery. Pretty incredible. People are attacking Sheriff Arpaio, but nobody has been able to refute the evidence his team presented.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 2:04 AM

Those who are as mice and sheep have by their nature already implicitly done so, but will everyone else please raise your right hand and repeat after me. All together now.

I pledge allegiance, and my life and whatever is left of my liberty and my dignity, to all Birth Certificates or Certifications, or PDFs of same, layered or unlayered, pitched or kerned whichever which way, that Dear Leader Emperor Barack Hussein Louie Hugo Benito Isuzu Obama has now, ever has had or ever will have, and to fully trust that at least one of them is somewhat valid in at least one of the 57 states, or at least legible, and that Dear Leader Emperor Barack Hussein Louie Hugo Benito Isuzu Obama is a non-caesarian and hence natural born citizen of the third planet from the sun, one nation under Obama, invisible, with hope and change for all, except, of course, for Terry Lakin and Joe Arpio and Jack Cashill and Diana West and cane_loader and TarheelBen and anyone who knows how to spell any of their names. Amen.

Doesn’t everyone feel much better? Yes, so now we can put this totally inconsequential matter completely to rest once and for all. Always trust Dear Leader Emperor Barack Hussein Louie Hugo Benito Isuzu Obama in everything he says and does even if the connection between what he says and does is not apparent to your lowly mind. He wouldn’t be doing what he is doing to whom he is doing it if he didn’t know where he was at when he was doing it or he wouldn’t be where he was at if he didn’t know what he was doing and to whom he was doing it to.

Cheshire Cat on May 3, 2012 at 2:08 AM

stormridercx4 on May 3, 2012 at 1:42 AM

Amen.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 2:09 AM

Cheshire Cat on May 3, 2012 at 2:08 AM

LOL! :D

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 2:12 AM

He wouldn’t be doing what he is doing to whom he is doing it if he didn’t know where he was at when he was doing it or he wouldn’t be where he was at if he didn’t know what he was doing and to whom he was doing it to.

Cheshire Cat on May 3, 2012 at 2:08 AM

lol – what a great sentence :D

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 2:14 AM

Arpaio may still become the man that takes him down.

He’s fixin’ to release more info, including about the draft card.

What sweet justice it would be to see Barry arrested in Arizona for ballot fraud and fitted for pink undies….

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 2:17 AM

Arpaio may still become the man that takes him down.

He’s fixin’ to release more info, including about the draft card.

What sweet justice it would be to see Barry arrested in Arizona for ballot fraud and fitted for pink undies….

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 2:17 AM

Sheriff Arpaio has guts. He’s receiving death threats, etc.
Sometimes I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone. Millions of us are witnessing the greatest political scandal in U.S. history – and yet, there is a media blackout, Congress won’t touch it, and the courts won’t go there.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 2:29 AM

cane_loader, I followed your link to HuffPo. That’s a good example of the kind of reporting (or lack thereof) that many media outlets are doing. I guarantee you their reporter, Ms. Foley, has not looked at the evidence at all. And I would love to ask her what is “racially-charged” about this issue.

HuffPost’s Elise Foley reports:

Arpaio insisted that he is investigating the racially-charged “birther” claims, which have been thoroughly debunked, because of demand from Tea Partiers. Obama released his long-form birth certificate in April 2011, but that was not enough for Arpaio, who said in November 2011 that he wants to see the microfiche of that document.

Arpaio met with “birther queen” Orly Taitz in October 2011 to discuss the investigation, again declining to give findings to the press.

TarheelBen on May 3, 2012 at 2:58 AM

Alex Baldwin? Mr. “I’ll leave the United States if the Republican Bush wins.”? LMAO!!!

DannoJyd on May 3, 2012 at 3:34 AM

stormridercx4 on May 3, 2012 at 1:42 AM

I like how you make a reasoned pitch for a terribly flawed candidate. But you still take a gratuitous shot at conservatives who cannot vote for Mitt because of their principles, like their principles don’t matter but yours do? Tell me how that works.

swinia sutki on May 3, 2012 at 5:27 AM

Alec Baldwin is so handsome(ish). Why does he have to ruin it by speaking???

cynccook on May 2, 2012 at 6:11 PM

If that lard ass is handsome (ish) , I am drop dead GORGEOUS !!

cableguy615 on May 3, 2012 at 6:22 AM

..oh, please! Coffee’s for closers! He’s just a bloated bag of meat with lipstick and a pair of big brassno ballz.

The War Planner on May 2, 2012 at 6:27 PM

cableguy615 on May 3, 2012 at 6:24 AM

Does anyone know ANYONE who’s going to vote for Ø who didn’t vote for him the 1st time?

Me neither…

We know lots of people who DID but who WON’T. These polls are bogus.

Mojave Mark on May 3, 2012 at 6:25 AM

Ron Paul beats Obama 49-41 in Montana. Among independents, he crushes O 55-33. Ron Paul is the best chance at beating Obama.

steve123 on May 3, 2012 at 6:36 AM

steve123 on May 3, 2012 at 6:36 AM

In Montana, one of the least populated states in the Union, where the isolationists live?

Not a very strong argument.

kingsjester on May 3, 2012 at 7:03 AM

But you still take a gratuitous shot at conservatives who cannot vote for Mitt because of their principles, like their principles don’t matter but yours do? Tell me how that works.

swinia sutki on May 3, 2012 at 5:27 AM

This is very simple. One of two men will be elected President in November, either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. That is your choice. There is no other.

Presuming you are a rational being who opposes the status quo of the Obama Regime, if you fail to vote for Romney, you are helping Obama. The only difference between voting for Obama, a 3rd party candidate, leaving the Presidential line blank, and staying home altogether is the degree to which you help Obama.

Even if you live in a “dark” red or blue state, your vote still has an effect: we discovered in 2000 how the “moral victory” of the popular vote has an effect – and some estimates say as many as 4 million voters didn’t vote for Bush because of the late news of his previous drunk driving arrest, which would have ensured it wasn’t close.

Now, if your “principles” are such that you are willing to help Obama to another term to uphold them, that’s your right as a citizen. Just don’t pretend you are doing something else, mmmkay? Own up to the responsibility for your actions, that’s all I ask.

But if your intent is to “send a message to the GOP,” I suggest you think about what message you are sending. You are saying you are an unreliable ally who cannot be counted upon when you don’t get your way in the primaries. Why would the Party spend any time worrying about you? You are declaring yourself implacable and irrelevant.

But if that’s what you want to do, far be it from me to get in your way.

Adjoran on May 3, 2012 at 7:48 AM

But if that’s what you want to do, far be it from me to get in your way.

Adjoran on May 3, 2012 at 7:48 AM

While you’re concerned about Conservatives being unreliable allies to the GOP, spare some concern for the GOP being unreliable allies, or even enemies, to conservatism. Just because the Democrats hate us, don’t assume the GOP loves us. They just use us and expect us to sit in the back quietly.

swinia sutki on May 3, 2012 at 8:00 AM

Yawn! another poll.

gerrym51 on May 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

nobama, nomittens!

Palin/West 2012

if not, then it’s Gary Johnson for me!

Pragmatic on May 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

But if your intent is to “send a message to the GOP,” I suggest you think about what message you are sending. You are saying you are an unreliable ally who cannot be counted upon when you don’t get your way in the primaries. Why would the Party spend any time worrying about you? You are declaring yourself implacable and irrelevant.

But if that’s what you want to do, far be it from me to get in your way.

Adjoran on May 3, 2012 at 7:48 AM

Spoken like a Party man.

Bmore on May 3, 2012 at 9:02 AM

I do not understand why people think voting for a third party is a good idea.

Voter from WA State on May 3, 2012 at 1:51 AM

The Republican Party formed as a third party response because the Whig leadership wouldn’t move fast enough on the conservative cause of abolition and freedom. Within 6 years of being formed (1854), they elected their first President, Lincoln (1860).

The Republican Party came about because the cause of conservative ideology is more important to conservatives than party loyalty. And if the RINOs don’t learn this lesson, they will get to relive history because of their refusal to learn from it.

dominigan on May 3, 2012 at 9:14 AM

But if your intent is to “send a message to the GOP,” I suggest you think about what message you are sending.

Adjoran on May 3, 2012 at 7:48 AM

…spoken like a Whig loyalist in 1854.

History is about to repeat itself because party leadership refuses to learn from history.

How’s that for a message?

dominigan on May 3, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Jackass Baldwin is a moron when it comes to politics, and my family no longer watches anything he is on CAUSE of his liberal progressive views and the destruction of America. Now he has a young woman on his arms from his money and not his charm.

Brushjumper on May 3, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Jackass Baldwin is a moron when it comes to politics, and my family no longer watches anything he is on CAUSE of his liberal progressive views and the destruction of America. Now he has a young woman on his arms from his money and not his charm.

Brushjumper on May 3, 2012 at 9:34 AM

…the “blame Bush” phenomenon…

I so freaking hate this meme…if in three and a half years of a four year term you can’t mitigate what (you say) your predecessor did, you are the most epic failure anyone has ever seen and should be laughed out of office with a side order of boot to the ass.

James on May 2, 2012 at 6:19 PM

THIS!!!!

Gunlock Bill on May 3, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Ron Paul beats Obama 49-41 in Montana. Among independents, he crushes O 55-33. Ron Paul is the best chance at beating Obama.

steve123 on May 3, 2012 at 6:36 AM

Yah great. Don’t spend both of those electoral votes in one place. Here’s your sign.

Abiss on May 3, 2012 at 10:03 AM

The female commentator appeared that Alex;s deodorant was overpowered by his rant, or for the quickest way out of the studio.

MSGTAS on May 3, 2012 at 10:09 AM

While you’re concerned about Conservatives being unreliable allies to the GOP, spare some concern for the GOP being unreliable allies, or even enemies, to conservatism. Just because the Democrats hate us, don’t assume the GOP loves us. They just use us and expect us to sit in the back quietly.

swinia sutki on May 3, 2012 at 8:00 AM

Yes, you’re correct. But the establishment R’s didn’t take over the party in a single mid-term election sometime long ago in the past. Their views once were ‘fresh.’ They were the upstarts. They later became entrenced as ‘the establishment.’ Hear this: You won’t defeat them going the 3rd party route. They, the democrats, and the entire 5 column media complex – including a lot of ‘conservative’ blogs you think of as ‘friends’ – are not going to give a 3rd party any oxygen to breath. It will die stillborn in the dark. If it’s really successful, they might rise to ‘Libertarian’ party levels and win some piddly little race once every 12 years.

Let’s stop being petulant children stomping our stompy boots. We made MASSIVE gains in 2010. Particularly at the grassroots local/state level. THOSE are the people we’re growing up to be big boy politicians. We keep supporting those if they’ve kept the faith, and replace those that didn’t. We look to get a few more in the national ranks. We try to add thousands more at the local level. Wash, rinse, repeat over and over and over until we own it. All of it. Get down with that struggle or STFU and get out of the way. We’ve got an establishment to bury, and its going to take the time, focus, concentration, energy and effort of political adults to make it happen. You don’t have to get on the team, but you don’t want to stand in front of that bus either. Word.

Abiss on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Alec Baldwin; the father of the year.

http://www.babble.com/CS/blogs/strollerderby/archive/2007/04/19/alec-baldwin-s-raging-abuse-filled-message-to-daughter-may-cost-him-his-parental-rights.aspx

What sweet justice it would be to see Barry arrested in Arizona for ballot fraud and fitted for pink undies….

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 2:17 AM

If Frank Marshall Davis were still alive he could answer that….allegedly.

dthorny on May 3, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Abiss – well stated.

In fact we need to keep Mittens clearly concerned about what legislation he can get through the congress. Sen Lugar is probably about to understand that moving to DC and still calling yourself a Hoosier isn’t the smartest strategy in the world. So there – we probably get one in the Senate to “improve” it.

Keep Mittens on the right path. With Obama, in four years there is nothing left.

Zomcon JEM on May 3, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Alec Baldwin? Political pundit? That’s as bad as Uncle Joe down at the Junction or Billy Beemer down at Hannigan’s bar. Wow. That’s for that insightful analysis, Alec.

“I played one on TV.”

PorchDawg on May 3, 2012 at 3:48 PM

The only thing “in the bag” is Baldwin. In fact, it strikes me that damn near ALL (D)s are on drugs or drunk 24/7.

Colatteral Damage on May 4, 2012 at 3:34 PM

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