Virginia: Obama 51, Romney 43

posted at 8:32 pm on May 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Remember, according to WaPo’s back-of-the-envelope calculations, Romney’s probably looking at a ceiling of around 290 electoral votes — and that’s assuming he retakes Virginia and Colorado. If Obama holds onto the former, Mitt’s down to 277; if O holds onto the latter too, Romney drops to 268. Which means another term of Hopenchange.

No margin for error. Dude, I’m nervous:

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket wouldn’t do much to help Romney’s prospects in Virginia. The spread remains exactly the same at 51/43 with him in the mix. McDonnell has solid approval numbers with a 46/36 spread, but isn’t overwhelmingly popular…

Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama’s lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney’s margin for error there is.

PPP points out that Romney’s split among Republicans is 83/12 right now compared to O’s 91/6 split among Democrats. That gap will shrink as Santorum and Gingrich fans come around to accepting Mitt as nominee, so this race will tighten. Likewise, his overall favorable rating is 38/52, but that’s because fully 21 percent of McCain voters rate him unfavorably right now. That too will change. I’m just not sure it’ll change enough to erase an eight-point lead. And in case you’re wondering about the sample, it’s almost precisely the same as the exit poll four years ago. In 2008 the state split 39D/33R/27I; PPP’s poll splits 39D/32R/29I. Second look at Vice President Bob McDonnell? (I know the poll claims he wouldn’t make a difference, but c’mon.)

Fortunately Mitt’s working on the all-important Mike Bloomberg endorsement, which should dazzle the media and the “No Labels” crowd and pretty much no one else. Here he is in Bloomy’s hometown this morning, countering Obama’s Bin Laden football-spiking with a joint appearance with Rudy Giuliani while some angry liberal in the crowd screeches that he’s a racist. Thanks to Greg Hengler for the clip.


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