Virginia: Obama 51, Romney 43

posted at 8:32 pm on May 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Remember, according to WaPo’s back-of-the-envelope calculations, Romney’s probably looking at a ceiling of around 290 electoral votes — and that’s assuming he retakes Virginia and Colorado. If Obama holds onto the former, Mitt’s down to 277; if O holds onto the latter too, Romney drops to 268. Which means another term of Hopenchange.

No margin for error. Dude, I’m nervous:

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket wouldn’t do much to help Romney’s prospects in Virginia. The spread remains exactly the same at 51/43 with him in the mix. McDonnell has solid approval numbers with a 46/36 spread, but isn’t overwhelmingly popular…

Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama’s lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney’s margin for error there is.

PPP points out that Romney’s split among Republicans is 83/12 right now compared to O’s 91/6 split among Democrats. That gap will shrink as Santorum and Gingrich fans come around to accepting Mitt as nominee, so this race will tighten. Likewise, his overall favorable rating is 38/52, but that’s because fully 21 percent of McCain voters rate him unfavorably right now. That too will change. I’m just not sure it’ll change enough to erase an eight-point lead. And in case you’re wondering about the sample, it’s almost precisely the same as the exit poll four years ago. In 2008 the state split 39D/33R/27I; PPP’s poll splits 39D/32R/29I. Second look at Vice President Bob McDonnell? (I know the poll claims he wouldn’t make a difference, but c’mon.)

Fortunately Mitt’s working on the all-important Mike Bloomberg endorsement, which should dazzle the media and the “No Labels” crowd and pretty much no one else. Here he is in Bloomy’s hometown this morning, countering Obama’s Bin Laden football-spiking with a joint appearance with Rudy Giuliani while some angry liberal in the crowd screeches that he’s a racist. Thanks to Greg Hengler for the clip.


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Comment pages: 1 2 3

alchemist19 on May 1, 2012 at 9:08 PM

It’s been a few weeks but back when the Roanoke poll I looked up the census 2010 data for Northern VA and it indicated around 64000 people were moving into the region per year, mostly poorer DC residents and largely minorities racially. The state is at least as liberal today as it was in 2008.

Buckshot Bill on May 1, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Dude, get your panties out of your crack..Jeebus, it’s May.

StevefromMKE on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 PM

yep, several of us, including me, are going to (symbolically) write in sarah’s name… because we don’t want to vote for Sketchy. he thinks we will all obediently fall in line behind him, no matter how much he leans to the left to try to “attract independents.” he’s in for a surprise…

Sachiko on May 1, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Supreme Court Justice Eric Holder and Supreme Court Justice Kathleen Sebelius thanks you.

JPeterman on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 PM

It’s a fricken Tuesday, in May! Give me Liberty or give me Polls! Tell me why Bush was so hated again? Didn’t Obama personally double-tap Osama? 51% of me is voting for ABO. 43% of me is voting for the Mexican.

racquetballer on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 PM

mitchellvii on May 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM cicerone on May 1, 2012 at 9:22 PM

It’s his schtick folks, you know, like a joke!

Cindy Munford on May 1, 2012 at 9:35 PM

angryed shows up in 5…4….3…..2….

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 9:04 PM

..naw, mate, Truculent Ed is in a crack-induced coma after soiling himself over his beloved crapsack’s “Mission Accomplished” speech+football spike.

The War Planner on May 1, 2012 at 9:32 PM

How does crapping on angryed or me or anhone else alter the reality? Which is: Romney’s simply not the god of electability a lot of you dolts thought.

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:35 PM

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Ditto!

Cindy Munford on May 1, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Supreme Court Justice Eric Holder and Supreme Court Justice Kathleen Sebelius thanks you.

JPeterman on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Shouldn’t they be thanking the you and the other GOP groupies for putting up a weak candidate?

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:37 PM

How does crapping on angryed or me or anhone else alter the reality? Which is: Romney’s simply not the god of electability a lot of you dolts thought.

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:35 PM

..it doesn’t. FulminatingEd is an intransigent, obdurate tool. You make decent comments and carry on a conversation.

And that’s Mr Dolt to you, old son.

The War Planner on May 1, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Ditto!

Cindy Munford on May 1, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Have you seen this months bill for Lysol and mops? angrymike is threatening to turn in his keys.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:38 PM

enough with that stupid picture, i am so sick of obama close up. please stop those annoying pictures. What is it with all the close ups.

phatfawzi on May 1, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Shouldn’t they be thanking the you and the other GOP groupies for putting up a weak candidate?

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Good heavens, no. That would be accepting reality.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:41 PM

enough with that stupid picture, i am so sick of obama close up. please stop those annoying pictures. What is it with all the close ups.

phatfawzi on May 1, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Please provide Alla with a list of acceptable pictures and topics.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Va. is on life support to the federal government in DC. Do any of you sane people think that they are going to kill the golden goose? That would be like the federal employees voting for someone who will cut their pay and benefits. This is probably the last time that the blood sucking leeches can be defeated in a presidential election. Another 4 more years and the tipping point will have been passed. The courts and career employees in the government will have been replaced by Obama and his Marxists with their cronies and extreme liberal buddies. SCOTUS will be a goner and many of the Circuit courts too. Van Jones will look like a moderate next time around! But I look at Va. like I look at Wisconsin. If the people there are stupid enough to want to recall the only person working on their behalf then go right ahead. You know the state/county/city unions have your back and best interests at heart

inspectorudy on May 1, 2012 at 9:48 PM

And a bunch of liberals are moving there from MD – to get away from onerous taxes and regulation – and they’re promptly turning the place into another Maryland.

forest on May 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

And that is exactly what is going on in some of the states that should go red. The jackwagons are leaving the places that they have wrecked and are moving on. Then they vote for the same crap that they left behind to get away from. The country is going going down.

Mirimichi on May 1, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Dude just shut up with your constant crying and verbal poison.

mitchellvii on May 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

THIS!

cicerone on May 1, 2012 at 9:22 PM

You two are not discerning, nor do you have a sense of humor. Plus, is this how you behave when you visit other people’s homes?

Schadenfreude on May 1, 2012 at 9:48 PM

I’ve used adblock to block that picture so I don’t have to see that son of a b!tch winking at me.

Mark1971 on May 1, 2012 at 9:49 PM

..it doesn’t. FulminatingEd is an intransigent, obdurate tool. You make decent comments and carry on a conversation.

And that’s Mr Dolt to you, old son.

The War Planner on May 1, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Well, I mean “dolts” in the presidential-selection sense. Sometimes I get carried away with the personal epithets. I think all of us need to ask ourselves before commenting, “Would I say that to that person’s face if his/her spouse was present? Would I want to get shot over a presidential election?” LOL

Actually I think I’m about to impose a moratorium on myself as far as commenting in Romney threads goes. He’s the nominee, let’s see how he does. If he wins, I eat crow. If he loses, you eat crow and the GOP goes kerplooey. :)

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:49 PM

No margin for error. Dude, I’m nervous:

You are always nervous.

Terrye on May 1, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Lol everyone, relax. Allah is just doing his job. If polls show Romney down, he knows that it will lead to an uptick in hits because of 1) ABR folks showing up to gloat, which in turn leads to response by Romney supporters or people just supporting him on behalf of the party/country and 2) it induces panic. In the end, it’s all about hits. As far as I’m aware, none of the bloggers posted Romney leading in VA according to a Roanoke poll about a month ago, but they post this one. Allah is also doing this because it will lead to people just rippin’ on him. Hits are hits. Traffic is the name of the game, after all.

GOPRanknFile on May 1, 2012 at 9:50 PM

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:38 PM

I have not, I have been working so I haven’t been around much.

Cindy Munford on May 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Shouldn’t they be thanking the you and the other GOP groupies for putting up a weak candidate?

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Good heavens, no. That would be accepting reality.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:41 PM

The reality is that for all the whining and complaining the anti Romney people were utterly and completely incapable of coming up with anyone any better who actually wanted to run…so instead they sit and whine and hope that Obama wins a second term so they can gloat.

Terrye on May 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Don’t know how much this means for this year, but I looked up the congressional vote results for VA in 2010, and here’s what I came up with:

Total Votes: 2,129,207
Republican Candidates: 1,181,905 (55.5%)
Democrat/non-Republican: 947,302 (44.5%)
Margin: 234,603

May not mean much in a Presidential election year, but that was a pretty solid Republican margin.

LooseCannon on May 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Shouldn’t they be thanking the you and the other GOP groupies for putting up a weak candidate?

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Good heavens, no. That would be accepting reality.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 9:41 PM

And so you are really good at accepting reality?

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Someone show Ed the Carter/Reagan polling..

Lord of the Wings on May 1, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Er, AP…

Lord of the Wings on May 1, 2012 at 9:59 PM

The reality is that for all the whining and complaining the anti Romney people were utterly and completely incapable of coming up with anyone any better who actually wanted to run…so instead they sit and whine and hope that Obama wins a second term so they can gloat.

Terrye on May 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

This. 100 times, this.

changer1701 on May 1, 2012 at 9:59 PM

The reality is that for all the whining and complaining the anti Romney people were utterly and completely incapable of coming up with anyone any better who actually wanted to run…so instead they sit and whine and hope that Obama wins a second term so they can gloat.

Terrye on May 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

And the gloaters will give up their rights to b$tch and moan about King Obama should he win reelection.

JPeterman on May 1, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Yes. The anybody-but-Mitt crowd failed. Utterly. And now they are lashing out. Prophesying doom. Threatening to stay home. Pretty pathetic.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:03 PM

And so you are really good at accepting reality?

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Reality is the fact that we have had the worst slection of candidates I have ever seen. That is reality.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 10:04 PM

It’s easy to see why Virginians would do a complete 180 since the elections of 2009 and 2010. SO much of the national mood has changed over that period, and what with all the great economic news, its only obvious. Duh.

Afterseven on May 1, 2012 at 10:04 PM

how can a 17 point gov win in 2009 and a gop overall 10% victory in 2010 now be a 8 point deficit ? The difference is one is fact and the other one is a guess,

rik on May 1, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Rasmussen had Romney at 45% and Obama at 44% last week in Virginia.

breffnian on May 1, 2012 at 10:06 PM

This will be the year we win PA.

rik on May 1, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Someone show Ed the Carter/Reagan polling..

Lord of the Wings on May 1, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Or the Bush/Kerry polling, on the very day of the ’04 election …

MSM pollsters are like algore “climate experts”: they see what they need to see.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

LOL…The only “whining” I see on this thread is from Mittbots.

I find Romney’s increasing unelectability sad, but not unexpected. Its not worth whining about.

Norwegian on May 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Reality is the fact that we have had the worst slection of candidates I have ever seen. That is reality.

katy the mean old lady on May 1, 2012 at 10:04 PM

It is what it is.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:12 PM

How many Virginia Reps and conservatives are going to follow the Jim Robinson route and not vote for POTUS because they hate Romney?

xkaydet65 on May 1, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Which is: Romney’s simply not the god of electability a lot of you dolts thought.

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:35 PM

dude … I know it …. however to paraphrase Rummy …
you don’t go to war with the Army who wish you had …
you go to war with the Army you have ..

and Mitt Romney is the Nominee … short of him falling over dead ..
or being caught naked in a room full of nude children …
or being found out he has 4 other wives …

this is what we got ….
Now I understand some of you are scared of the damage to conservatives
if Romney is elected and goes all liberal on us …

However i am more scared of four more years of the vacationary in chief …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Romney’s increasing unelectability

Norwegian on May 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Yeah yeah. Keep gnawing.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Actually I think I’m about to impose a moratorium on myself as far as commenting in Romney threads goes.

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I’ve gone further and generally stopped reading the comments (this is the first few comments I’ve read in awhile). Can’t stand to see supposedly conservative people defending Romney as if he were some paragon of conservatism. I can understand voting for and supporting the guy over Obama, but the Coultermania is more than I can stomach.

besser tot als rot on May 1, 2012 at 10:18 PM

This is VIRGINIA, Please! Get over the fear.

Winebabe on May 1, 2012 at 10:18 PM

LOL…The only “whining” I see on this thread is from Mittbots.

I find Romney’s increasing unelectability sad, but not unexpected. Its not worth whining about.

Norwegian on May 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Whatever, dude. Don’t you have some more spare cash you can send to whiny little Santorum?

JPeterman on May 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Yes. The anybody-but-Mitt crowd failed. Utterly. And now they are lashing out. Prophesying doom. Threatening to stay home. Pretty pathetic.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:03 PM

It is hardly that simple. This is not a grudge fight.

We have real concerns with Mitts commitment to the Republican Party after all in 2002 he said his registration was only a technicality and he did not know a single Republican. He ran as a self identified Democrat Liberal Moderate. In four hears his record was very solid under his self identification. Not a single Conservative accomplishment.

Now Obama is running a very poor campaign so far. Mitt still has a chance but history tells us he needs to run solid conservative or he will lose. I suppose it is possible that Obama could still lose this but there is a long time before the election and it is not looking good for Mitt.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

I find Romney’s increasing unelectability sad, but not unexpected. Its not worth whining about.

Norwegian on May 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

then don’t…

jimver on May 1, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Now I understand some of you are scared of the damage to conservatives
if Romney is elected and goes all liberal on us …

However i am more scared of four more years of the vacationary in chief …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Well, that’s reasonable. I, however, am not sure which is more frightening. A center-left, big government statist Republican, or a far-left, big government, statist Democrat. Which will move the country further to the left in 4 years (given that Republican Congressional history indicates a strong resistance to government expansion under Democrat Presidents, but strong willingness to go along with government expansion under Republican Presidents)? Which will cause the country to be further to the left in 10 years, given potential backlash against whichever president is ultimately elected? I think it’s an open question.

besser tot als rot on May 1, 2012 at 10:23 PM

I am not voting FOR Romney … I am voting against Obama …

Romney is not my 1st.. 2nd… 3rd … or even 42 choice …

I just voted in our primary … Rick S.

but in Nov … I AM voting against Obama ..
and if that means I pull the lever for Romney … so be it

There will be no joy …. but I will do it …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Romney is not my 1st.. 2nd… 3rd … or even 42 choice …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:24 PM

He’s not even in my top 100,000,000.

besser tot als rot on May 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Shouldn’t they be thanking the you and the other GOP groupies for putting up a weak candidate?

ddrintn on May 1, 2012 at 9:37 PM

yeah, and where the heck is the ‘strong’ candidate that your side put up??…yeah, I thought so, your side couldn’t even convince a viable candidate to run…

jimver on May 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM

I suppose it is possible that Obama could still lose this but there is a long time before the election and it is not looking good for Mitt.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Sorry. I just don’t see it. Mitt was my third choice in the primary (I’m a Palin backer), but I like the guy and I think he’s doing quite well. Obama is in serious deepshit trouble. The tide is clearly going out on him. Mark my words. Obama will lose BIG in 2012. And I cannot wait.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:27 PM

give me a break…virginia aint an easy haul anymore but r’s still have the edge imo

therightwinger on May 1, 2012 at 10:30 PM

There will be no joy …. but I will do it …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Oh thank God.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:30 PM

I find Romney’s increasing unelectability sad, but not unexpected. Its not worth whining about.

Norwegian on May 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

then don’t…

jimver on May 1, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Touche!

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:32 PM

The lack of strong enthusiasm for Romney is exactly why he needs to be polling better. If the “electability” meme is shown to be a sham, this could be a brutally bad election day.

gumbyandpokey on May 1, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Sorry. I just don’t see it. Mitt was my third choice in the primary (I’m a Palin backer), but I like the guy and I think he’s doing quite well. Obama is in serious deepshit trouble. The tide is clearly going out on him. Mark my words. Obama will lose BIG in 2012. And I cannot wait.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:27 PM
Sorry the same was said when McCain ran. When Dole Ran. When Ford ran. When GHW Bush ran for the second term as a moderate.

It is not that I dislike moderates so much. It is just that they never pull off a win. Not since Nixon destroyed the Moderate Republican brand. Mitt has already destroyed any credibility he might have and by lying and changing positions all the time.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Congressional history indicates a strong resistance to government expansion under Democrat Presidents, but strong willingness to go along with government expansion under Republican Presidents)? Which will cause the country to be further to the left in 10 years, given potential backlash against whichever president is ultimately elected? I think it’s an open question.

besser tot als rot on May 1, 2012 at 10:23 PM

I understand your position …. and I share some of them …

I very well maybe on the wrong side of this ….
IMHO
If Obama wins – we crash hard …
if romney wins -and goes all liberal we crash but it takes longer ..
if romney wins and acts like a conservative … bonus … because we KNOW
BHO will not do anything conservative

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:34 PM

The lack of strong enthusiasm for Romney is exactly why he needs to be polling better.

Duh huh?

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:35 PM

The lack of strong enthusiasm for Romney is exactly why he needs to be polling better. If the “electability” meme is shown to be a sham, this could be a brutally bad election day.

gumbyandpokey on May 1, 2012 at 10:32 PM

So true.

Yet it seems he keeps on doing things that dispirit the base. Like he thinks he can take us for granted. Would have thought that five loses would have taught him something but seems not.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

PPP surveyed 680 Virginia voters from April 26th to 29th. (small Weekend Poll)

PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews

“If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.”
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Dems +7 …….any wonder why the margin?

Animal60 on May 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

This is another PeePeePee poll. If one of them actually has Obama behind, now THAT would be news. Otherwise . . .

WannabeAnglican on May 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Oh thank God.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:30 PM

this has always been my position …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:37 PM

The lack of strong enthusiasm for Romney is exactly why he needs to be polling better. If the “electability” meme is shown to be a sham, this could be a brutally bad election day.

gumbyandpokey on May 1, 2012 at 10:32 PM

If he should lose, that doesn’t necessarily mean the electability argument was a sham. That was based on who he was running against, campaign organization, funding, etc….none of that guarantees victory. Just means, in all likelihood, he had the best shot.

changer1701 on May 1, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Sorry the same was said when McCain ran. When Dole Ran. When Ford ran. When GHW Bush ran for the second term as a moderate.

It is not that I dislike moderates so much. It is just that they never pull off a win. Not since Nixon destroyed the Moderate Republican brand. Mitt has already destroyed any credibility he might have and by lying and changing positions all the time.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Right back at ya. And you’ve convinced me of nothing, except that you’re an Obama masochist.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Oh thank God.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:30 PM

this has always been my position …

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Fabulous. Sobs for everyone.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Bullshit.

ladyingray on May 1, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Well I am falling asleep at the keyboard … l8r

conservative tarheel on May 1, 2012 at 10:44 PM

If people are going to get upset every time there’s a Democratic poll showing Obama doing well, it’s going to be a rough seven months for them. The only numbers that matter are the job approval numbers–and he has yet to break through to 50% in VA. He’s actually at 46%, according to the Purple Poll for April. That’s typical for him. He’s doing lousy in PA as well–45%. And only a little better in OH–47%. He’s at 46% in FL. Any president with job approval numbers that low is in deep trouble. Why do you suppose he’s flying all around the world grandstanding, pounding his chest? That’s not confidence he’s showing, it’s flop-sweat. In fact, Romney is already a safe bet in NC, MO, IN, and AZ. If he wins FL and PA, it’s all over. Right now he’s looking good in my state–PA.

writeblock on May 1, 2012 at 10:44 PM

And Virginia is a state that Romney has always struggled in, much like Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on May 1, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Always struggled in Virginia, when? Anyway, I just don’t see a D+7 turnout in Virginia for this general election. No way. And one thing I suspect about polling in Virginia is that most of the sample comes from the northern part of the state. The southern and western parts of the state are harder to poll, and those areas are very rural, and very Red.

Based on McConnell’s blowout win, and the 2010 results, I really feel confident that we can flip Virginia back to the Red column.

TarheelBen on May 1, 2012 at 10:52 PM

What is it with you people? We’ve a nation to rescue and you’re going all eeyore. Think division of labor. Those who can should be selling the nominee like all get out. The rest of us have to focus on getting the collectivist-in-chief out of the oval office.

At the Chicago tea party rally on the 16th, a leader of the Illinois organization made of point saying that fiscal concerns were her exclusive concern. The thing was, on March 23rd, there was a Rally for Religious Freedom that was completely tea party in it’s implications. It was not only considerably larger, but it had a demographic spread, unlike the usual events. It had balloons and kids carrying each other around on a platform. It was a beautiful thing.

Our focus may vary but our purpose must be common. Kids, country, whatever motivation works for you. Romney for president, ready or not.

wolfsDad on May 1, 2012 at 10:52 PM

And in case you’re wondering about the sample, it’s almost precisely the same as the exit poll four years ago. In 2008 the state split 39D/33R/27I; PPP’s poll splits 39D/32R/29I.

I’m not wondering why AP wouldn’t question 2008 splits which obviously aren’t accurate in 2012. We need better pundits.

Basilsbest on May 1, 2012 at 10:56 PM

Dems +7 …….any wonder why the margin?

Animal60 on May 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

They’re basing it roughly on the 2008 turnout model. 2008 was a big year for the Dems. A lot has changed, and a lot of Hope and Change has gone under the bridge since then. A D+7 turnout in Virginia for this general election is not very likely.

TarheelBen on May 1, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Right back at ya. And you’ve convinced me of nothing, except that you’re an Obama masochist.

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Sorry the strikeout was an error. Just meant to quote.

My eyes are not what they used to be.

Just seems most Moderates want it both ways.

They want to be able to criticize the base.

They want the base to support them.

That never works yet they do it every time.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 11:01 PM

That gap will shrink as Santorum and Gingrich fans come around to accepting Mitt as nominee

Stop assuming this will happen. It’s not a given, certainly not if it’s taken for granted. I am very serious that Missouri will be in play, and it’s a must-win for Romney at this point.

alwaysfiredup on May 1, 2012 at 11:10 PM

They want to be able to criticize the base.

They want the base to support them.

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Lefties have a name for this, called “hippy punch”. I am not interested in voting for people who demean me. I am no abused spouse. I have a choice, and my choice is still Not Mitt. I will vote 3rd party, write-in or Leave It BlankTM. Mitt has to earn my vote and to date he has not. I am not alone.

alwaysfiredup on May 1, 2012 at 11:14 PM

Steveangell on May 1, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Oops.

But, yeah, I feel your frustration.

Still, the only thing that matters to me is kicking Barak’s boney leftist ass out of office.

Plus I weary of the endless attacks on Romney. I recognize his faults, but geez!

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Horse plop. Don’t believe it. Maybe a statistical tie, but not an 8-point spread.

J.E. Dyer on May 1, 2012 at 11:32 PM

T

hat gap will shrink as Santorum and Gingrich fans come around to accepting Mitt as nominee, so this race will tighten.

Likewise, his overall favorable rating is 38/52, but that’s because fully 21 percent of McCain voters rate him unfavorably right now. That too will change.

Second look at Vice President Bob McDonnell? (I know the poll claims he wouldn’t make a difference, but c’mon.)

AP….I used to think you were being sarcastic with this “Dude, I’m nervous”…but reading those 3 lines from this post…you ARE actually nervous. This is not good…not good at all.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on May 2, 2012 at 12:03 AM

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm……….have the campaigns (other than Obama’s) actually started yet?

GarandFan on May 2, 2012 at 12:04 AM

give me a break…virginia aint an easy haul anymore but r’s still have the edge imo

therightwinger on May 1, 2012 at 10:30 PM

PPP showed their numbers, where are yours?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on May 2, 2012 at 12:05 AM

The reality is that for all the whining and complaining the anti Romney people were utterly and completely incapable of coming up with anyone any better who actually wanted to run…

Terrye on May 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

yeah, and where the heck is the ‘strong’ candidate that your side put up??…yeah, I thought so, your side couldn’t even convince a viable candidate to run…

jimver on May 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM

One more quick comment: uh, sugarbears, it wasn’t in my power to convince ANYbody to run or to come up with ANY candidate. That still doesn’t make Romney strong.

ddrintn on May 2, 2012 at 12:05 AM

Still, the only thing that matters to me is kicking Barak’s boney leftist ass out of office.

Plus I weary of the endless attacks on Romney. I recognize his faults, but geez!

minnesoter on May 1, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Same here. But if we want him out we have to win.

No moderate has won since Nixon. Question then is what must Mitt do to possibly have a change of winning.

Well obviously McCain showed that alienating the base makes you lose. Yet all I see Mitt supporters do is alienate us. Mitt as well. I mean what went though his mind thinking he could hire a gay marriage advocate with his record on that. This alienates huge numbers of the base. Most of the base is christian and opposed to gay marriage. That he was on foreign was hardly an excuse. I could care less if someone he hires is gay. But I care greatly when he hires a Gay Marriage spokesman. That is what he is period. Thus that is what Mitt is I now have no doubt. Totally unforced error.

Mitt keeps this up and it is simple. Obama will win the 2012 election and Mitt will just be another stupid McCain.

Steveangell on May 2, 2012 at 12:20 AM

One more quick comment: uh, sugarbears, it wasn’t in my power to convince ANYbody to run or to come up with ANY candidate. That still doesn’t make Romney strong.

ddrintn on May 2, 2012 at 12:05 AM

If Romney’s weak, why is Obama running scared?

writeblock on May 2, 2012 at 12:23 AM

If Romney’s weak, why is Obama running scared?

writeblock on May 2, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Obama’s scared? LOL

Right he is so scared that he is taking this victory lap and seems to care less that it is politically damaging him. He knows he has several points to spare. Thus more important to accomplish foreign objectives that we have no idea what are. We will have to wait and see.

But I see a very confident Obama.

Steveangell on May 2, 2012 at 12:40 AM

yep, several of us, including me, are going to (symbolically) write in sarah’s name… because we don’t want to vote for Sketchy. he thinks we will all obediently fall in line behind him, no matter how much he leans to the left to try to “attract independents.” he’s in for a surprise…

Sachiko on May 1, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Supreme Court Justice Eric Holder and Supreme Court Justice Kathleen Sebelius thanks you.

JPeterman on May 1, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Romney clearly decided he didn’t need the conservative vote. It was clearly a calculated risk on his part.

If he calculated wrong, whose fault is that exactly?

There Goes The Neighborhood on May 2, 2012 at 12:51 AM

It will appear as though hope and change has it all wrapped up until 6:00 on election night and then, then you will see progressive despair.

Tim Zank on May 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Progressive Republicans or Progressive Democrats?

There Goes The Neighborhood on May 2, 2012 at 12:55 AM

As long as you persist in this idiocy of panicking over every poll, I will continue to mock you as an idiot.

We both know you only post all these things because they are easy and make it look like you are actually doing something for the site instead of spending all your time sexting with Ace.

Adjoran on May 2, 2012 at 2:10 AM

So, they polled a whopping 680 people. I live in Virginia Beach, Va and I’m preeeeeety sure that there are more people then that living in my little area of the beach. And where were these people living? Northern Virginia is basically DC light. It’s where all the DC bureaucrats live. Now, good ole Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Hampton (commonly referred to as Tidewater or Hampton Roads) is a military area. We have a fricken Battleship (USS Wisconsin) anchored in downtown Norfolk. Most military folks are Republicans. I’m thinking if they polled 680 people HERE it’d show Obama having about the same chance as a snowball in lava of winning.

Polls are meaningless; like statistics they can be easily manipulated to mean whatever you want them to.

wolfva on May 2, 2012 at 6:04 AM

Northern Virginia is basically DC light. It’s where all the DC bureaucrats live.

wolfva on May 2, 2012 at 6:04 AM

Though I don’t live in VA any longer, I grew up in Richmond and still have affection for the state. So I hate to see it overtaken like this.

Hey, let’s give the northern suburbs back to DC.

petefrt on May 2, 2012 at 6:41 AM

So if Obama is theoretically up in VA, how come no Democrat running for office wants to be seen with him?

He has been President Plutonium in VA since 2009.

2009 was when VA flipped from Purple to Red for Statewide offices.

That was reinforced in 2011.

Yes there is a large enclave of federal workers in NoVA, which tends to end at the Beltway. The entire Democratic machine outside of the Beltway has not been making inroads after 2008 and has done the exact opposite.

This is mirrored Nationwide as Democrats see slippage in rural, small town and suburban communities… outside of a few People’s Republics like CA, IL and NY, that is, and even NY is starting to see the Weiner seat and a neighboring seat flip Red. You can oversample in NoVA and get a D +7 result and that is about the only way you CAN do that in VA. Given what has happened to Democrats in the State since Obama’s election, you can’t really support this being a Blue or Bluish-Purple State. One with an enclave like that in NoVA, yes, Statewide, no. And WaPo caters to that enclave as their circulation numbers have gone down while that of the free for distribution Examiner have gone up. Yes the enclave has been inflated by Obama, but the walls of that bubble are now apparent for all inside to see and sing la-la-la-la while sticking their fingers in their ears.

I don’t trust the WaPo’s reporting on ANYTHING at this point. Not their opinions, not their news articles, not their polling and you have to check against online sources to make sure they get their box scores right in the sports section. They are living in a bubble and I can see the surface of it contracting in VA. It isn’t happening because Republicans are such a great party, it is happening by voters turning out in off-year elections to reclaim their State so that if worse comes to worse at least the State will be able to maneuver fiscally. And no Democrat wants to be seen with Obama on the trail as he represents the exact opposite of that.

ajacksonian on May 2, 2012 at 6:43 AM

Romney clearly decided he didn’t need the conservative vote. It was clearly a calculated risk on his part.

If he calculated wrong, whose fault is that exactly?

There Goes The Neighborhood on May 2, 2012 at 12:51 AM

Yeah, don’t ya love this – now Gingrich,Santorum, and we supporters are supposed to come to the rescue and pull his sorry a$$ across the finish line like we were supposed to rally and do for McCain…and Dole. Yet the unbelievable nastiness on these blogs against those of us who support Newt, Rick, and have “severe” reservations about Romney is breath taking and not exactly all that inspiring. So the world is now upside down: conservatives and conservatism has become the enemy and the moderate republicans “liberal” – the Karl Roves, Dick Morrises, Donald Trumps, are the face of and have taken total control of the republican party. Is it no wonder that they hope against hope the Obama’s blunders will mask and camouflage Romney’s weaknesses and blunders enough to give Romney a victory by default? I don’t see it and this election is already going downhill despite all the forced enthusiasm and cheerleading and will be incredibly painful for the majority of us who hoped for better.

mozalf on May 2, 2012 at 7:56 AM

These brutal polls love to stoke the ire of the Romney haters and liberal trolls on these threads. Relax. Its a flashpoint. Obama took the car in the ditch- filled the gas tank with stimulous cash that he borrowed and then drove it over a ledge into a bigger ditch.

If this country- this country’s swing states- chooses to put this failure back into the white house, the democratic party will be damaged for decades… as this country will stay in a depression/recession for at least 6 years more.

Bensonofben on May 2, 2012 at 7:58 AM

It’s Romney’s and the rest of the Republican’s duty to cut thru the fog and cheerleading of the media to pound this message home.

Bensonofben on May 2, 2012 at 8:00 AM

Speaking as someone living in Virginia. In the loathsome Northern Virginia where we apparently are all commies or something……

The polls lie. There is no way that Obama is up by that much. It just isn’t true. Plus it is only May.

Happy Nomad on May 2, 2012 at 8:02 AM

Etch-a-sketch is toast.

Jayrae on May 2, 2012 at 8:05 AM

Hey, there’s a Romney rally in Chantilly, VA today at 10. I’d love to go to see how hard he hits Obama which, IMO, is the only way he wins in November.

As a Virginian for the past 2 decades, it has gone back and forth R to D and vice versa while I’ve been here though the R party took a beating in northern VA in the House of Delegates and State Senate.

As a tea party member, Palin was my first choice for R presidential candidate. It will be a struggle for me to vote again for a squishy RINO who seems to relish poking conservatives for no good reason other than to show his non-conservative bona fides to independents.

These type polls point to the desperate need for a new method of primaries. Giving Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina the first dates every election hasn’t turned out so well, has it? Perhaps the states who have the best turnout for the Republican candidate should get the first dates during primary season.

The real thing that needs to be done, however, is to take the Republican party back to conservative leanings by something like the Precinct Project blog is espousing.

Angineer on May 2, 2012 at 8:09 AM

And in case you’re wondering about the sample, it’s almost precisely the same as the exit poll four years ago. In 2008 the state split 39D/33R/27I; PPP’s poll splits 39D/32R/29I

In other words, the poll is wrong.

Turnout is not going to look like 2008, it’s going to look like 2010. Obama can’t run as a blank slate today.

The 290 ceiling is crap. Mitt probably can’t duplicate Reagan 1984, but he could easily break 300.

TallDave on May 2, 2012 at 8:20 AM

This keeps AP busy. All other polls I have seen shows a dead heat or Romney edging out Obambi.

I don’t know who ‘they’ are talking to but everyone I’ve come across here in VA that voted BHO last time says they are not going to make that mistake again.

TerryW on May 2, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Actually, that poll is Fairfax Country, not Virginia. It’s also mathematical garbage.

rplat on May 2, 2012 at 8:58 AM

How many Virginia Reps and conservatives are going to follow the Jim Robinson route and not vote for POTUS because they hate Romney?

xkaydet65 on May 1, 2012 at 10:15 PM

You mean Jim “It’s my site, you’re banned, send me money for the rebellion, Jim”? !!!! !!!! Or his lickspittle “me too” posters?

I don’t know about this year, I just remember when they encouraged me to vote for Romney to stop McCain in 2008. They were right then, they just figured it out too late.

rhombus on May 2, 2012 at 9:09 AM

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