Virginia: Obama 51, Romney 43

posted at 8:32 pm on May 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Remember, according to WaPo’s back-of-the-envelope calculations, Romney’s probably looking at a ceiling of around 290 electoral votes — and that’s assuming he retakes Virginia and Colorado. If Obama holds onto the former, Mitt’s down to 277; if O holds onto the latter too, Romney drops to 268. Which means another term of Hopenchange.

No margin for error. Dude, I’m nervous:

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket wouldn’t do much to help Romney’s prospects in Virginia. The spread remains exactly the same at 51/43 with him in the mix. McDonnell has solid approval numbers with a 46/36 spread, but isn’t overwhelmingly popular…

Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama’s lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney’s margin for error there is.

PPP points out that Romney’s split among Republicans is 83/12 right now compared to O’s 91/6 split among Democrats. That gap will shrink as Santorum and Gingrich fans come around to accepting Mitt as nominee, so this race will tighten. Likewise, his overall favorable rating is 38/52, but that’s because fully 21 percent of McCain voters rate him unfavorably right now. That too will change. I’m just not sure it’ll change enough to erase an eight-point lead. And in case you’re wondering about the sample, it’s almost precisely the same as the exit poll four years ago. In 2008 the state split 39D/33R/27I; PPP’s poll splits 39D/32R/29I. Second look at Vice President Bob McDonnell? (I know the poll claims he wouldn’t make a difference, but c’mon.)

Fortunately Mitt’s working on the all-important Mike Bloomberg endorsement, which should dazzle the media and the “No Labels” crowd and pretty much no one else. Here he is in Bloomy’s hometown this morning, countering Obama’s Bin Laden football-spiking with a joint appearance with Rudy Giuliani while some angry liberal in the crowd screeches that he’s a racist. Thanks to Greg Hengler for the clip.

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Comment pages: 1 2

Been to many TEA party rallies, have you? Or are you merely engaging in rectal speak?

As usual…

JohnGalt23 on May 24, 2013 at 1:46 PM

As I just posted HotairLib has their whole head up their six o clock.

hamradio on May 24, 2013 at 2:43 PM

Who wrote the speech? Or are you just praising the messenger?

mixplix on May 24, 2013 at 2:57 PM

MSNBC consensus: Obama’s speech was historic, amazing, “one of the best of his presidency”

Connect the dots: journolist meeting by invitation only at the White House on, what Tuesday?, “big”speech by Obama on Thursday, lame stream media fawning over speech on Friday. Who would have seen that coming, huh?

parke on May 24, 2013 at 2:58 PM

They need the “war on terror” in order to further erode our Constitutional freedoms and to deflect criticism from the administration’s and Federal government’s ongoing corruption.

They are just trying to massage it so that they don’t offend the Muslims, international Libtards and their own sensibilities anymore than necessary.

A few Muslim terrorists here and there are quite expendable to this Administration despite their sympathies for them. These drone attacks also do much deflect any potential criticism that the Administration is weak in dealing with such matters.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 24, 2013 at 2:59 PM

MSNBC is nothing but a left wing propaganda machine serving their master, Obama.

rplat on May 24, 2013 at 3:07 PM

Nobel Peace Prize that he totally earned a mere nine months into his presidency? Yeah, that one.

I believe that he was officially nominated 10 days after he was sworn in. Wow! The WON really worked long hours that week and a half to earn that POS medal. During those ten days he ordered NO DRONE STRIKES to keep his peaceful record clean.

fred5678 on May 24, 2013 at 3:22 PM

Obama: Don’t worry about that Ben Ghazi guy. I killed Bin Laden, and Bush didn’t!

And Obummer still wants to close Gitmo? Good luck with that–not even Upchuck Schumer was willing to hold trials in New York!

Steve Z on May 24, 2013 at 3:24 PM

They need the “war on terror” in order to further erode our Constitutional freedoms and to deflect criticism from the administration’s and Federal government’s ongoing corruption.

They just changed the definition of terrorist. They used to be jihadis from the Middle East–now they’re Minutemen in Arizona and Tea Partiers in Ohio.

Steve Z on May 24, 2013 at 3:29 PM

…bromides about what we’re told are President Foreign Policy’s miraculous yet still oddly unmaterialized abilities to move us drastically closer to world peace.

Erika, sometimes your writing shows signs of rivaling even the Master of Snark himself, Allahpundit. Good work!

KS Rex on May 24, 2013 at 3:45 PM

I love how crazy Al invoked the Nobel Peace Prize in praise of a speech that spoke about dropping bombs on people’s head. Maybe it was the “fewer” bombs than before that raised this to historic levels.

Do they even know or care that they are morons.

marnes on May 24, 2013 at 3:46 PM

His speech made less sense than Bluto’s Animal House Speech and was far less entertaining. Nothing less than base rallying time. Never thought I would say this, but Code Pink was the best part.

DDay on May 24, 2013 at 4:01 PM

Sperling posted this at the Examiner on May 23 about this “historic speech of Obysmal’s:

During his foreign policy speech Thursday afternoon, President Obama warned that domestic terrorism would increase in the modern age of the Internet.

“[T]his threat is not new,” Obama said. “But technology and the Internet increase its frequency and lethality.”

Obama warned Americans that materials on the Internet could influence people to commit terrorist acts.

“Today, a person can consume hateful propaganda, commit themselves to a violent agenda and learn how to kill without leaving their home,” he said.

To combat domestic terrorism, Obama reminded Americans that it was important to reach out to Muslim communities.

“The best way to prevent violent extremism is to work with the Muslim American community — which has consistently rejected terrorism — to identify signs of radicalization and partner with law enforcement when an individual is drifting towards violence,” he said. “And these partnerships can only work when we recognize that Muslims are a fundamental part of the American family.”

You see, we are just not working hard enough to “work with the Muslim American community” who are a “fundamental part of the American family.” Watch out, too, because Obysmal is again trying to limit the impact of the Internet.

onlineanalyst on May 24, 2013 at 4:22 PM

That Chris Hayes is a bit of a twink, isn’t he?

onlineanalyst on May 24, 2013 at 4:25 PM

Obama apparently gave two speeches yesterday and I watched the other one.

myiq2xu on May 24, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Comment pages: 1 2