Rasmussen poll in Florida shows Romney edging Obama 46/45

posted at 10:41 am on April 27, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The election in November may come down to just three or four key states, and none of them as big as Florida.  The diverse electorate and the high total of electoral votes make it a must-win for Mitt Romney and almost as important for Barack Obama, who won the state in 2008.  Rasmussen’s latest Florida poll, out today, shows a virtual tie between the two, with Romney edging Obama by one point:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 46% of the vote, while Obama earns 45% support. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In mid-March, the president held a three-point advantage over Romney, 46% to 43%. Obama led by a similar 47% to 44% margin inearly February.

Nationally, with Rick Santorum out of the Republican race and Newt Gingrich soon to quit, Romney has been running slightly ahead of the president in most daily matchups in recent weeks.

In case you’re wondering, the D/R/I of this sample is 33/33/35.  In 2008, the turnout in Florida was 37/34/29 according to the CNN exit poll, but in the 2010 midterms, it was 36/36/29.  In this case, Rasmussen might have slightly oversampled independents, but the relationship between Republicans and Democrats in this model looks sound.

That oversample might have helped Romney just a little, as he leads among independents 47/38, a bad sign for Obama’s chances in the Sunshine State.  Obama has a wide lead among women at 55/37, but Romney has an even greater lead among men., 58/31, besting the gender gap total by nine points in the gaps.  Obama wins the youth vote (18-39YOs) by only 12 points at 50/38, a surprisingly close score, while Romney wins majorities in the other two age demos, beating Obama by eight points among seniors, 52/44. Married votes support Romney 55/36, while singles back Obama 55/30.  The income demos are mixed, with each candidate getting three of the six categories.  Interestingly, Romney wins the under-$20K category by a wide margin, 53/40.

The rest of the poll shows bad news for Obama.  Only 9% rate the economy as good, and no one calls it excellent.  Fifty-two percent call it poor; 49% of independents think so, too.  A narrow plurality of voters think the economy is getting worse than better, 43/37.  A majority wants ObamaCare overturned, 50/35, and 59% oppose the individual mandate.  Obama is slightly underwater on job approval 49/51.

However, his biggest problem in this poll is the topline number.  After the bruising Republican primary, one might have thought that Obama’s re-elect number would have been much higher as the incumbent who rode above the fray.  A 45% result at this stage isn’t a decisive indicator of losing the state, but it’s a bad result at this stage, with Romney just now starting to unite the GOP behind him.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Again, from the book of Nate Silver:

Rasmussen, which has a Republican house effect of a few points at the very most (all from their voter models), and made an error in a single poll that would have been corrected had a second poll been taken of the same race at a different time: Not to be trusted.

Research2000, which fabricated polls and stole Kos’s money: How accurate they are!

KingGold on April 27, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I still contend, however, that an incumbent president who polls consistently under 50% is an indication that folks who know about him are not quite happy. On the other hand, after a bitter primary fight and with an electorate not paying complete attention, it’s sort of an up-side for Romney.

The War Planner on April 27, 2012 at 11:26 AM

While not necessarily consistent, you have a very strong point. Bambi’s in trouble, and Mittens isn’t even the offical Republican nominee yet. It becomes particularly telling when some polls are using D+11 samples just to get Bambi to 50%.

While Ed makes a strong argument with his list of polls, I found the CBS/NYT poll… interesting. But to be fair, its ONLY one poll….

Turtle317 on April 27, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I’m still struggling with Obama’s likeability/attraction. Does not compute. Maybe it’s like when you’ve been dating a guy for a long time and you keep hoping, hoping he’ll come through with that marriage proposal that just gets hinted at but never materializes. Yet you stick with him even though all of your friends tell you he’s a douche (and deep down you know he is, too, and you’ve probably already caught him in more than one lie) because you just can’t admit that you made such a crappy choice. Maybe that’s what it’s like for an Obamabot. Bottom line – I don’t think a rational, reasonable person can look at his performance or his personality and see a net positive.

natasha333 on April 27, 2012 at 11:32 AM

The Justice Brothers pimping on the Travon Martin case is not helping Obama like they thought it would.
It could cost him the state especially if the trial comes to a head at the end of the summer.

NeoKong on April 27, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Local talk radio is responding to Biden’s comment yesterday that a bumper sticker to sum up the Obama administration- OBL is dead and GM is alive.

The winning response so far is is this slogan- If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you weren’t a racist, vote Romeny in 2012 to prove you are not an idiot.

Happy Nomad on April 27, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Ok … however … Bush also picked up seats in congress
in a midterm election … so Bush had a couple of things go
good for him during his term …
Historically – have undecided gone for the incumbent
or the challenger …

conservative tarheel on April 27, 2012 at 11:32 AM

but but but….Karl Rove says Obama will win easily!

Huckabye-Romney on April 27, 2012 at 11:34 AM

What is this WE crap? You’re not going to nominate him you angry little Liberal troll, the GOP is.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

God you’re a tool. You can’t figure out that I was writing that from the POV of a Mittbot? Really?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Unfortunately for Romney Obama’s uber strong polling on Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, PA, VA and Colorado mean that Florida is a state Obama can afford to lose. But if a Rasmussen poll in Florida is what helps you sleep at night, well go for it.

libfreeordie on April 27, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Uber strong polling in Virginia?

I think the last poll I saw he was up by 1 in Virginia. Which happens to be my home state.

Pigs will fly before Obama wins Virginia again. Perhaps you should take a look at what happened in Virginia during the 2010 midterms.

Obama is in BIG TROUBLE.

And the fact that I can just say that and it gets all the lefties panties in a wad is what makes me sleep well at night.

Because I know the end to this long national nightmare will soon be over.

The only thing that worries me is what the Marxist will try to pull between November 7th, 2012 and January 20, 2013. Lame duck Obama is going to be one very scary man. He is going to go out kicking and screaming and throwing a fit. It’s not going to be pretty. Congress needs to keep a very close eye on the man-child during that time. He’s liable to spill state secrets out of spite.

ButterflyDragon on April 27, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Rasmussen?
LOL
I’m breathlessly awaiting the poll from Sean/Rush listeners.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 10:53 AM
Wow, you’re late today. You feeling alright?

Bitter Clinger on April 27, 2012 at 10:55 AM

…craps in his shorts on a regular basis…so has to take time to change (or the rash spreads)…also has to floss his brain once a day…so he only seems erratic…it’s mental… not medical!

KOOLAID2 on April 27, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Rome’s Bureaucrats Better than the EPA’s at Increasing Prosperity! A historical review that shows that while Rome’s tactics created wealth, this administration’s has been full-of-fail. For example — PAX ROMANA vs POX OBAMA. And at least the Roman’s didn’t eat dog. Graphics and video included showing that brutish Roman soldiers also had more compassion for their victims than EPA bureaucrats.

Mutnodjmet on April 27, 2012 at 11:37 AM

God you’re a tool. You can’t figure out that I was writing that from the POV of a Mittbot? Really?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:35 AM

You are the poll meister.
Its not a bad thing to be the underdog in the electoral hunt right now, though.
(As long as your messiah doesn’t try to eat the underdog.)

FlaMurph on April 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Add Rubio it’s well over 50% if not already

Conservative4ev on April 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

God you’re a tool. You can’t figure out that I was writing that from the POV of a Mittbot? Really?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:35 AM

It’s been established plenty of times on these threads that you’re a Liberal troll. You haven’t the foggiest notion what the POV of the GOP actually is. WE, however, know your POV and your MO.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:39 AM

He’s liable to spill state secrets out of spite.

ButterflyDragon on April 27, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I can’t help but to agree with this analysis. When the Clintons left the White House (when Al Gore didn’t win the presidential election), the White House staff was a rather pi$$y group. That won’t compare to what happens this time around. I wouldn’t be surprised if they burn down the White House out of spite.

Turtle317 on April 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I don’t think a rational, reasonable person can look at his performance or his personality and see a net positive.

Obama voters are not rational, reasonable people.
They are either delusional, ignorant or willfully destructive.

Right Mover on April 27, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Add Rubio it’s well over 50% if not already

Conservative4ev on April 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Agree. Once Florida is nailed down, we’ve got a few different paths.

And, with enough advertising in coal country, we should be able to have Obama on his heels in Ohio and sweating out PA.

The Count on April 27, 2012 at 11:42 AM

And, with enough advertising in coal country, we should be able to have Obama on his heels in Ohio and sweating out PA.

The Count on April 27, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I know I’m sticking my neck out here, but how much do you want to bet that if the near unthinkable happened, and PA goes to Mitt, you can call the election for Romney?

Just sayin’….

Turtle317 on April 27, 2012 at 11:45 AM

…craps in his shorts on a regular basis…so has to take time to change (or the rash spreads)…also has to floss his brain once a day…so he only seems erratic…it’s mental… not medical!

KOOLAID2 on April 27, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I cannot decide which is more fun: ignoring this pantload and having him screen scrape all of those old polls, pout, stamp his feet, and shriek in an attempt to attract attention from the grownups.

..or to have him deconstructed like you did so excellently here.

The War Planner on April 27, 2012 at 11:46 AM

It’s been established plenty of times on these threads that you’re a Liberal troll. You haven’t the foggiest notion what the POV of the GOP actually is. WE, however, know your POV and your MO.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Mittbots loved polls when Romney was ahead.
Now that Mittens is behind they dismiss polls as irrelevant.
I know this is tough to figure out since Rush/Sean didn’t mention it.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Yawn! another poll.

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised if they burn down the White House out of spite.

Turtle317 on April 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

..or because The Chicago Jesus has amped up his habit and taken to chain-smoking his Kools.

The War Planner on April 27, 2012 at 11:48 AM

You know, I LOVE seeing the Republican over Obama in ANY poll.

But it’s April, and anything within the margin of error is nothing to get ramped about.

GOTV, work a polling station, canvas, do SOMETHING to ensure Obama loses. Don’t rest on polling data.

Washington Nearsider on April 27, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I wouldn’t be surprised if they burn down the White House out of spite.

Turtle317 on April 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Yawn! another poll.

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Salem has discovered the goose that lays the golden egg of many clicks. They just need someone who may be obsessed with them to make that magic happen.

a capella on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

The most important facts from this poll are than Romney leads Obama by 52/44 among seniors, who make up a much larger fraction of the electorate in Florida than in most other states, and that Romney leads among independents by 47/38.

Even if the turnout is 37/34/29 as in 2008, a 9-point advantage in Independents can make up a 3-point gap in partisan voters.

Also, real estate values have plunged farther in Florida than in most other states. Obama might have won in 2008 by promising people like the “Fort Myers lady” that he would pay her mortgage, but 3-1/2 years later, there are still lots of “underwater” houses, and Florida voters might turn to a businessman like Romney to get the economy moving again.

Steve Z on April 27, 2012 at 11:53 AM

The War Planner on April 27, 2012 at 11:46 AM

…no one ignores him…so I try to explain him. (They sent a battalion of these people over) By November…when they’re gone, it will be like a dog park…that hasn’t had the pooh picked up for a year. They leave feces everywhere.

KOOLAID2 on April 27, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Mittbots loved polls when Romney was ahead.
Now that Mittens is behind they dismiss polls as irrelevant.
I know this is tough to figure out since Rush/Sean didn’t mention it.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:46 AM

As long as there are polls, you’ll have something to crow about. It’s early yet and Mitt is only the presumptive nom. When he becomes the nom and rises even in the most skewed and Lib weighted polls, you’ll still be an angry little Liberal Kos kid babbling about how the polls are crap.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

And an angry little Liberal race-baiter to boot.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:59 AM

I’ve been wrong before!

Having said this and based on the mood of the country I truly believe
this is going to be a repeat of 1980.

Not because everyone loves Mitt.

But because Mitts a safe choice and the country is unhappy and wants to get rid of Obama.

Blow out republican landslide.

This election is a referendum on OBAMA.

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 12:02 PM

As long as there are polls, you’ll have something to crow about. It’s early yet and Mitt is only the presumptive nom. When he becomes the nom and rises even in the most skewed and Lib weighted polls, you’ll still be an angry little Liberal Kos kid babbling about how the polls are crap.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Once again for the Sean/Rush crack addicts:

Mittbots loved polls when Romney was ahead. It was the ONLY reason for his nomination.

Now that every single reputable poll, ie not Rasmussen/Fox New, show him losing badly, Mittbots dismiss polls.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 12:03 PM

McCain had a 12-point lead on Obama in Florida at this exact time in the 2008 campaign (according to RCP average.

He still lost Florida.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

In fact – only days before the general – most polls still had McRage and Ogabe in a statistical tie – which is exactly what this polling data is saying about Willard and Ogabe. And – since the GOP establishment doesn’t have the balls to do anything about voter fraud – they’ll have to contend with a bit of that from the Dims too.

. WE, however, know your POV and your MO.

Slainte on April 27, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Wow – are we supposed to be terrified? Cuz – we’re not. It’s foolish to be terrified of conservative slaves who march to the polls like stepford wives to elect establishment republicans who simply grow bigger government. LOL

HondaV65 on April 27, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Mittbots loved polls when Romney was ahead. It was the ONLY reason for his nomination.

Now that every single reputable poll, ie not Rasmussen/Fox New, show him losing badly, Mittbots dismiss polls.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 12:03 PM

I only WISH this was specific to Mittwits. Nonsense exactly like this goes on all. the. freaking. time.

MelonCollie on April 27, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Yawn! another poll.

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Indeed….Lollapollooza !!

However, not to get angryed all wee weed up over his messiah going down….

The Omarxist only won Florida in 2008 by less than 3% of the total vote- 235,000 votes. And he did it by LYING. You have to be rock stupid if you think Ocommie has gained any additional support or votes. He has only lost support from those magical days of 2008, and it is easily 3%. Democrites still run the media down here- but Trayvon’s wannabe baby daddy doesn’t have enough divisive hate in him to swing it back around for him.

Who’s up for a good race riot??

FlaMurph on April 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Mittbots loved polls when Romney was ahead.
Now that Mittens is behind they dismiss polls as irrelevant.
I know this is tough to figure out since Rush/Sean didn’t mention it.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Anybody care to take bets on what it actually is that’s driving angryed’s deranged hatred? It’s obviously not a love for conservatism or he’d be on dailykos crusading against Obama. Instead he’s here crusading against the only option to beating Obama and saving the country. Ideas?

Swerve22 on April 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Palin would of been 10 up in Florida by now.

unseen

rickyricardo on April 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Awww, you are part of a liberal “operation chaos”, you spend months hanging out on a website pretending to be a conservative stirring up anti Mittens feelings because “he is not a true conservative like you”, you fail, Mittens wins, and you can no longer keep up the facade, you rip of the conservative mask and the bitter, twisted, sad little liberal you are pops out, sick of all the talking points its was forced to spout in direct opposition to its true, leftist, Obama loving soul.

Take a hot long long shower to wash off the self loathing of all the things you were forced to do angryed.

sheikh of thornton on April 27, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Romney needs to fire his staff. Did you all read his response to Obama’s new ad which features Romney saying he wouldn’t spend money going after one man? The woman press person who wrote it sounds like a first year low-level staffer in a freshman’s office.

Seriously? This “I’m going to focus on the economy” is all well and good but that line ain’t gonna work when the attacks are specific. It just sounds like he’s as imaginative and quick as your Aunt Fanny’s 26 year old pug.

Why couldn’t they have mentioned that without George Bush’s enhanced interrogation, they’d not found Obama? How about featuring the newly unearthed memo that makes the Obama heroics what they were: an act? Why not bring up the FACT that Obama PROSECUTED 3 Navy SEALS because a terrorist who beheaded five American contractors and hung them from a bridge SAID they gave him a blood nose? How about mentioning that Obama says the war on terrorism is over while mother’s are still meeting their child at Dover?

The material is endless and his press secretary twit comes up with “Obama did good but we’re going to only talk about the economy”?

There’s staying on message and then there’s utter stupidity!

Portia46 on April 27, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Portia46 on April 27, 2012 at 12:14 PM

go home

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Anybody care to take bets on what it actually is that’s driving angryed’s deranged hatred? It’s obviously not a love for conservatism or he’d be on dailykos crusading against Obama. Instead he’s here crusading against the only option to beating Obama and saving the country. Ideas?

Swerve22 on April 27, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I’m sure he compensates by driving a fancy sports car. And jetting off to ski and play golf…you do know he’s a self-made gazillionaire don’t ya. Nah, he’s a self-absorbed jackarse…just like his lover-boy Obama.

HumpBot Salvation on April 27, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Having said this and based on the mood of the country I truly believe
this is going to be a repeat of 1980.
Not because everyone loves Mitt.
But because Mitts a safe choice and the country is unhappy and wants to get rid of Obama.

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Carter was angryed’s first dream candidate- so look out for the backlash.

Hannity had a very good segment on his show last night that actually took statements Carter was making in his 1980 campaign with the Obamunist’s recent comments and they are so freaking identical… you just have to see it. Almost verbatim to what the WH fraud is spewing.

Its amazing….. obie IS Carter 2.0

and yes, its addicting.

FlaMurph on April 27, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

…why are progressives always the race baiting master baiters?

KOOLAID2 on April 27, 2012 at 12:22 PM

*Laugh!* “Baghdad Ed” Morrissey keeps trying to find optimistic signs in the polls.

Who else would bother to write a full article on GOP pollster Rasmussen reporting Romney has a one point advantage in Florida?. Well, Mitt previously finished ahead of Obama in late January 2012(!) so I guess this qualifies as encouraging news to some increasingly desperate people.

As for the other battleground states, I note Romney is trailing badly in Ohio and even Rasmussen struggles to come up with polls showing him ahead in GOP strongholds Virginia & North Carolina. Yes, maybe the world economy will collapse in time for the November elections but if it doesn’t, there is no way Mitt will win.

MARCU$

mlindroo on April 27, 2012 at 12:22 PM

go home

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Why should she? She’s right. Are Mitt and his staff no longer subject to honest criticism? You make him sound like Obama. Politicians aren’t infallible and neither are their support staff.

totherightofthem on April 27, 2012 at 12:25 PM

All Romney needs to do is hold ground, and edge Obama in Florida and Virginia or Pennsylvania. Landslide win.

Swerve22 on April 27, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Portia46 on April 27, 2012 at 12:14 PM

.
WRONG.
Romney cannot give the Obama MSM smear machine ANY of the white man hating black man meme. While we all enjoy red meat (and name calling)- THERE IS NOTHING GAINED FROM PERSONALLY ATTACKING the dope whose favorability is in the 60′s while his job approval has been in the 40s and rarely breaks 50%.

And th Obamunist is a cool cat- hipster, smooth singer and all around groovy dude on late night TV. Embrace the celebrity, fire the politician.

FlaMurph on April 27, 2012 at 12:30 PM

but but but….Karl Rove says Obama will win easily!

Huckabye-Romney on April 27, 2012 at 11:34 AM

No, he doesn’t. He never said that. He said, at this moment, the map looks like what he posted. And guess what, it should. There have been no debates, negative ads against Obama, a VP candidate, etc..

He had a disclaimer that basically said this map will change, and this race will tighten, signifiantly. And, he didn’t even qualify that some of Obama’s safe states might turn to toss-up’s, while none of Romney’s will.

milcus on April 27, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Read about the Obamas and bookmark the excellent writer.

Schadenfreude on April 27, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Huckabye-Romney

The combination just made me hurl.

Schadenfreude on April 27, 2012 at 12:49 PM

I see, you say Hucka-bye…whatever you have in mind. I hope it’s not Huckabee, for double nightmares.

Schadenfreude on April 27, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Morning In America

1984 Q1 GDP: 7.4%

Mourning In America

2012 Q1 GDP: 2.2%

Resist We Much on April 27, 2012 at 12:57 PM

There’s staying on message and then there’s utter stupidity!

Portia46 on April 27, 2012 at 12:14 PM

You are spamming the different threads now? You posted the same silly thing in another thread. At least it wasn’t a vile, anti-Mormon comment like you usually post.

Anyway, the Romney campaign’s response to the ad was pitch perfect.

The ad was a shameless, cheap piece of work intended to rally Obama’s base and to change the subject. It should be called out as such. There’s no point in letting the Obama campaign change the attention of the campaign.

bluegill on April 27, 2012 at 1:02 PM

but but but….Karl Rove says Obama will win easily!

Huckabye-Romney on April 27, 2012 at 11:34 AM

No, he doesn’t. When did he say such a thing?

Rove’s map is simply a polling average map. And the bulk of state H2H polls we have now were taken during the contentious Republican primary.

joana on April 27, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Again, from the book of Nate Silver:

KingGold on April 27, 2012 at 11:31 AM

yeah, coming from Nate Silver, how much value does that have,it’s not like he doesn’t have a dog in the fight…. if you want impartial and objective, look at Charlie Cook’s analyses….he’s always spot on, he amazed me with the accuracy of his polls and analysis before the 2010 elections…

jimver on April 27, 2012 at 1:03 PM

I support all polls that show Obama losing. Any others are flawed. Got it?

But seriously, the way I see it Romney needs to turn the following states from blue to red: Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Those aren’t out of the question. Then he needs just one more small state to send Barry back to Chicago.

TarheelBen on April 27, 2012 at 1:04 PM

eriously? This “I’m going to focus on the economy” is all well and good but that line ain’t gonna work when the attacks are specific. It just sounds like he’s as imaginative and quick as your Aunt Fanny’s 26 year old pug.

Why couldn’t they have mentioned that without George Bush’s enhanced interrogation, they’d not found Obama? How about featuring the newly unearthed memo that makes the Obama heroics what they were: an act? Why not bring up the FACT that Obama PROSECUTED 3 Navy SEALS because a terrorist who beheaded five American contractors and hung them from a bridge SAID they gave him a blood nose? How about mentioning that Obama says the war on terrorism is over while mother’s are still meeting their child at Dover?

Portia46 on April 27, 2012 at 12:14 PM

its counter-factual and the dem ad was completely idiotic to begin with…why responding to such nonsense..seriously ‘what if’ ads, that’s the best the dems can do? ‘what would have happened if a republican had been president, would he have have made the call’…blah, blah…for one thing the dems accused the reps day in and day out of being hawkish, neo cons,etc, so asking that question itself in their ad is imbecilic to say the least…is there really any doubt what call a Rep president would have made in the same situation???…besides, Obama didn’t make any call, Panetta made it for him, to be clear…he just went along with it…I think Romney was right not to get into their counter-factual stupid game, and he stated that he’s focused on the future and on the economy, and not the past…

jimver on April 27, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Couple of things about these polls:

After the bruising Republican primary, one might have thought that Obama’s re-elect number would have been much higher

That is very true. After the primary, an unopposed incumbent generally is faring much better in polling than Obama is. That is a sign of deep trouble. When you consider all the crap that has been said about the various Republican candidates, that Romney still has the support of so many Independent voters is telling.

Also about the male/female thing. I believe most of these polls only talk to one individual in each household. How many of these people polled have a person of the opposite gender in the household who will vote the same way? In other words, in how many cases is the woman being polled simply a member of a Democrat household and there is a man associated with that household who is also going to vote for Obama and in how many cases is there a woman in the house hold where the male is the one polled and SHE is going to vote for Romney? I would feel more comfortable with these polls if ALL likely voters in the household were polled.

crosspatch on April 27, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Obama has a 43% job approval in CO. A 45% job approval in PA and VA. A 46% job approval in FL. A 47% approval in OH. These are terrible numbers. He doesn’t break 50% in any of the battleground states, not even in IA where he’s been stuck below 50% since 2009. (He’s at 46% at present.)

These numbers have been consistent and show broad disapproval of this administration. Obama has nowhere to go in terms of improving his numbers since he’s a known quantity. Everybody knows how he’s governed the past three years. Everybody knows things are not improving. Romney, on the other hand, has plenty of room to move up. He needs only to underscore his competence to have the undecideds break for him.

As for FL specifically, one factor favoring Romney will be his stand on Israel. No way Obama will do as well with the Jewish vote this time around, given his undercutting of Israel over and over. Even in 2008 he won the state by a fairly small margin. He will lose it in November as the electorate considers the past four years and finds them wanting.

writeblock on April 27, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Mittbots loved polls when Romney was ahead. It was the ONLY reason for his nomination.

Now that every single reputable poll, ie not Rasmussen/Fox New, show him losing badly, Mittbots dismiss polls.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Hey angry, FYI, Rasmussen is a democrat poller, you putz! Early polls are worthless when you are dealing with the “presumptive” nominee on one side and the incumbent on the other. Get a grip!

tomshup on April 27, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

…why are progressives always the race baiting master baiters?

KOOLAID2 on April 27, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Nah… we need to call them like they are… RACISTS! After all, they see everything based on skin color. But maybe we should feel bad for them, after all its so hard to separate yourself from racism when you support the party of slavery and the ideology of stamping out freedom.

Ok, strike that. I don’t feel bad for them.

dominigan on April 27, 2012 at 1:21 PM

As for the other battleground states, I note Romney is trailing badly in Ohio and even Rasmussen struggles to come up with polls showing him ahead in GOP strongholds Virginia & North Carolina. Yes, maybe the world economy will collapse in time for the November elections but if it doesn’t, there is no way Mitt will win.

MARCU$

mlindroo on April 27, 2012 at 12:22 PM

In fact Romney’s not “trailing badly in OH.” He’s behind about five points–with the election campaign just starting after a rough primary. Meanwhile Obama has yet to get higher than 47% job approval. That’s the number to watch, not the head-to-heads which will tighten up in the fall. And you need to watch PA as well–where Obama’s job approval is a low 45%. The swing districts of the state–the upscale Philly suburbs–will be the determinants for who wins the state. Romney is tailor-made for that segment of the electorate.

writeblock on April 27, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Blow out republican landslide.

This election is a referendum on OBAMA.

gerrym51 on April 27, 2012 at 12:02 PM

it depends on turnout … I believe it will be close …
hopefully outside the margin of fraud …

if the economy stays in the crapper …. Mitt wins
if it improves … Obama can win …

turn out and economy

conservative tarheel on April 27, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

What are you? Australian? They’re not “blacks” anymore, you racist. They’re African American or people of color.

totherightofthem on April 27, 2012 at 1:58 PM

In fact Romney’s not “trailing badly in OH.” He’s behind about five points–with the election campaign just starting after a rough primary. Meanwhile Obama has yet to get higher than 47% job approval. That’s the number to watch, not the head-to-heads which will tighten up in the fall. And you need to watch PA as well–where Obama’s job approval is a low 45%.

Some polling shows Romney down only 4 on OH and there is an indication that Romney might be ahead in PA. I say that because of the “Purple” poll recently. They did not release stats for PA individually but they did release numbers for OH and for OH + PA + NH. What they show is Obama up +5 in OH but only up +2 in OH + PA + NH. So PA must be very close or Romney up a point or two.

crosspatch on April 27, 2012 at 2:24 PM

…with the election campaign just starting after a rough primary.

Makes me want to bitch slap Mitt, Santorum and Gingrich. If they had all acted a bit more like grown ups, the republican would have better in Nov.

sheikh of thornton on April 27, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Because blacks are violent savages?

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Are you Kilgore Trout or Charles Johnson himself?

VorDaj on April 27, 2012 at 3:22 PM

Rasmussen Tracking 4/24 – 4/26 1500 LV 47 46 Obama +1
FOX News 4/22 – 4/24 915 RV 46 46 Tie
Gallup Tracking 4/20 – 4/24 2200 RV 49 43 Obama +6
National Journal 4/19 – 4/22 1004 A 47 39 Obama +8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/13 – 4/17 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News/NY Times 4/13 – 4/17 852 RV 46 46 Tie
Quinnipiac 4/11 – 4/17 2577 RV 46 42 Obama +4
CNN/Opinion Research 4/13 – 4/15 910 RV 52 43 Obama +9
PPP (D) 4/12 – 4/15 900 RV 49 46 Obama +3
Reuters/Ipsos 4/12 – 4/15 891 RV 47 43 Obama +4
Heartache!

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:07 AM

“See, gang! Now these polls know how to skew sampling!”/ed

bmmg39 on April 27, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Now that every single reputable poll skewed to favor the prospects of Democrats, ie not Rasmussen/Fox New, show him losing badly, Mittbots dismiss polls.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Repaired.

(I know some are going the wry route with this. I’m just preferring to be to the point. Carry on.)

bmmg39 on April 27, 2012 at 3:58 PM

If you look at the 2004 exit polls Bush won those who decided in the previous week by 3% (51/48), identical to his overall margin.
angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:27 AM

by then there was only 2-3% undec. we’re at 10-15% in most polls. those dont break 50/50. but we’re ok ed, our side, yours and mine, is a-ok. come on eyore, relax. and bushes approval was much better than bho’s. bho is historically LOW in 12th and 13th qtrs. we’re fine. obama’s fall is just beginning. remember by july/aug, everyone had kerry up. as romney will be. but this time he cant rebound. and will continue to fall. and then theres the whole governing against the will of the people. bho is in 30s on all the major issues. he’s done. hes in a box. he cant flip to the 60-70% majority side of any issue becuase his fund raising has dried up. he NEEDS those 6 or 7 thin slivers of special interests to get enough moey and hope to cobble a 50.1% maj, with depressed turnout of regualr folks, you and me. but its an almost impossible task, ed. we know that. everything is going against him. becuase, well, he is him. thats the problem. so rest easy. we have this covered. nailed. be happy.

t8stlikchkn on April 27, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Some polling shows Romney down only 4 on OH and there is an indication that Romney might be ahead in PA. I say that because of the “Purple” poll recently. They did not release stats for PA individually but they did release numbers for OH and for OH + PA + NH. What they show is Obama up +5 in OH but only up +2 in OH + PA + NH. So PA must be very close or Romney up a point or two.

crosspatch on April 27, 2012 at 2:24 PM

The Purple Poll is consistent with other findings in PA. I have long argued that PA was in play if only we picked the right candidate. This was especially true in 2007 and early 2008 when Rudy was the GOP frontrunner. He was polling here ahead of Obama and Hillary by double digits. People in PA were comfortable with him. I sense there’s a similar comfort level with Romney.

I continue to believe the GOP nomination process passed up a sure win in 2008 by not taking Rudy’s electability seriously. Romney faced the same resistance this time around–and it’s mostly Southern and evangelical. At one point Giuliani was ahead in the major swing states by double digits and was even polling ahead in CT and NJ, his numbers driven by the huge Italian-American vote bloc concentrated in the most vitally important states. None of that mattered in 2008.

Rudy’s constituency was in part the same Reagan Democrat voting bloc–one twelfth of the electorate, equal in size to the black vote–that eventually propelled Rubio and Brown and Christie to victory. It’s significant, I think, that Rudy was one of the few Republican leaders asked to campaign with those candidates. All three won tremendous victories against all odds, thanks in part to the Reagan Democrats. But electability meant nothing to Dr. Dobson in 2008–so we got McCain instead.

Romney has an opportunity to tap into the same Democrat constituency that was so attracted to Rudy, but for different reasons. The attraction now is not ethnic affinity but his stand on religious freedom, with Catholics opposing Obama in ever-increasing numbers. Since Catholic voters are concentrated in the Rust Belt–WI, OH and PA–and in FL, obviously the most important states in the coming election, this poses an acute danger to the President. These voters are already showing their preferences in the polls, with Obama losing the Catholic vote by a considerable margin in recent polls. The margin will widen this late spring and summer when the bishops plan mass rallies to express outrage over Obama’s attacks on religious freedom.

writeblock on April 27, 2012 at 4:18 PM

GOTV, work a polling station, canvas, do SOMETHING to ensure Obama loses. Don’t rest on polling data.

Washington Nearsider on April 27, 2012 at 11:49 AM

It’d be nice if Mr. Etch-a-sketch would start behaving like a conservative. That would really help. But don’t count on it.

gryphon202 on April 27, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Since the MSM either refuses to report or glosses over numerous Obama mistakes the only way Romney can win is by selecting a “rock star” vp nominee and the only one I can think of is Marco Rubio. Without Rubio, it will be “deja vu all over again”-Bob Dole vs. Clinton.

MaiDee on April 27, 2012 at 6:12 PM

We must nominate him.

angryed on April 27, 2012 at 11:20 AM

‘we, the angry one’?? your delusion of grandeur got to the point where you talk about yourself using the first person, plural? tzk, tkz, tzk, did you tell that to your doc? They might have to change your meds, alas, again…just when they thought the treatment worked…

jimver on April 27, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Re the IA vote, there’s this from The Daily Caller: Charlie Cook on Obama: ‘We have kind of a metrosexual president’ – TheDC

On Friday’s “The Daily Rundown” on MSNBC, Charlie Cook of the famed The Cook Political Report offered his theory as to why Iowa seems to be tilting toward the Republicans in the upcoming election.

According to his co-guest David Drucker, a reporter for Roll Call, it stems from a dissatisfaction with Washington, particularly with ObamaCare. However, Cook says it is something more.

“Small towns — states with a large small town rural populations, Democrats in general, the president has had a really hard time,” Cook said. “I mean, we have kind of a metrosexual president … that doesn’t go over well in the small town. And it’s just cultural. It is what it is.”

writeblock on April 27, 2012 at 8:28 PM

All Romney needs to do is hold ground, and edge Obama in Florida and Virginia or Pennsylvania. Landslide win.

Swerve22 on April 27, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Anyone paying attention to recent votes in OH and PA? And FL senate seat numbers? OH voted pro union. PA voted for uber liberals to replace blue dogs dems. In FL a liberal incumbent is in a comfortable lead, up to double digits since a dead even heat 2 months ago.

VA, just by virtue of many working in DC and being at the trough of government ever increasing graft, does anyone think these people will vote against their own cushy jobs and pensions? This is not human nature.

You really think these states will vote for Romney?

riddick on April 28, 2012 at 1:58 AM

Anyone paying attention to recent votes in OH and PA? And FL senate seat numbers? OH voted pro union. PA voted for uber liberals to replace blue dogs dems.

In PA you’re talking about primary fights based on recent redistricting that put blue dogs in more liberal contexts. Politics as usual. Doesn’t mean PA is getting more liberal. It means certain districts have gotten more liberal, others have gotten more conservative. By the way, the PA voters also dealt a devastating blow to Planned Parenthood–a sure indicator of conservatism in PA. Here’s The Weekly Standard’s take:

Planned Parenthood Raises Stakes in PA Special Election, Loses Badly
6:37 PM, Apr 25, 2012 • By JOHN MCCORMACK

Last week Politico reported that Planned Parenthood was spending big money in a Pennsylvania state house special election. “Most state legislative races and ad campaigns don’t necessarily have any larger resonance, but Democrats have been working to make the ultrasound bill the kind of liability for Republicans in Pennsylvania that a related proposal became for Republicans in Virginia,” Politico’s Alexander Burns reported. The Republican ended up winning the special election by 18 points.

writeblock on April 28, 2012 at 12:15 PM

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