Karl Rove’s first 2012 electoral map: Including “leaners,” Obama 284, Romney 172, toss-up 82

posted at 4:41 pm on April 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

Via Dave Weigel. For a compulsive eeyore like me, if the daily polls showing O ahead are like a shot of whiskey, this is like a shot of heroin. Eyes rolling back in my head.

Dude, I’m nervous.

On the one hand, how seriously should we take a projection that has South Carolina as a toss-up? Maybe this is Rove knowing that his map will get attention and using it to scare conservatives into donating and GOTV volunteering. On the other hand, none of his other state projections look obviously wrong to me. Even if you take New Hampshire and Nevada out of Obama’s “lean” column, he still gets to 271 and a second term.

HuffPo’s Mark Blumenthal is out today with his first electoral map of the campaign too:

The big difference with Rove’s map? Blumenthal gives Florida and its 29 electoral votes to Obama. I’m skeptical that O will take that state again this time, partly because of how well Romney did there in the primary and partly because Rubio will be stumping for him there either as senator or VP nominee. Put that back into the toss-up column and Obama’s at 269, but even then, all he’d need is one win among Nevada, Colorado, or Iowa to give him another four years.

In lieu of giving you my own projection, go look at this one from Ben Domenech, as it seems quite plausible to me. Romney wins Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire while O takes Iowa, Colorado, and the coveted trifecta of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The only state on which I differ, I think, is that last one. Problem is, even turning Virginia red on Domenech’s map isn’t enough to deliver the election to Romney. He needs to win either Ohio or Pennsylvania on top of it, which is why (a) The One is already busy pandering to blue-collar voters with gimmicks like the Buffett Rule and (b) Rob Portman is likely to be Romney’s VP. The rust belt will probably decide things. Again.


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Where was Reagan in the polls on April 26, 1980?

fossten on April 26, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Incumbent vs. weak challenger…what do you expect?

aengus on April 26, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Dude, I’m nervous.

Dear HotAir n00bz:

There are only seven more months of this to look forward to. Enjoy.

fiatboomer on April 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

It’s Turdblossom, enough said.

pseudonominus on April 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Dude, I’m nervous.

It’s meant to scare you. I don’t buy it for one minute.

Ghost Writer on April 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Is it just me or is the election season like hearing Christmas music in July?

So much can happen to change these polls/electoral maps in the coming 6 months that it is ridiculous to speculate…

melle1228 on April 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

History shows that the candidates’ positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes. For example, in an April 20-22, 1992, Gallup poll, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was ahead with 41% of the vote, compared with 26% for Bill Clinton and 25% for Ross Perot. And in an April 11-14, 1980, poll, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42% to 34%, with John Anderson receiving 18% support. Both Bush and Carter, of course, ultimately lost their re-election bids.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153902/romney-obama-tight-race-gallup-daily-tracking-begins.aspx

fossten on April 26, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Rove is liberal media

Uppereastside on April 26, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Romney is unelectable.

I think Rove’s map is probably realistic, if not slightly on the optimistic side for Romney’s chances.

Norwegian on April 26, 2012 at 4:46 PM

What’s the over/under for posts on this thread?

Bitter Clinger on April 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Tokyo Rove harshin’ my buzz

SMACKRUNNER on April 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

If the economy goes south, Obama loses in a landslide; if it recovers, Obama wins. This isn’t rocket science.

Rational Thought on April 26, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Wasn’t Rove just moments ago urging Romney on the GOP because of his much vaunted though never substantiated “electability”?

Hey, does anyone remember when the Republicans were a serious party?

casuist on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

This just can’t be — wasn’t Mittens the electable one according to Rove?

Typhonian on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Karl Rove pegs Wisconsin as firmly Obama? Ze touch…she is lost.

MadisonConservative on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Where was Reagan in the polls on April 26, 1980?

fossten on April 26, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Romney is no Reagan.

If you want to stick to 1980 political analogies, think of Romney as a John Anderson.

Norwegian on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Texas leaning towards Romney? Kentucky? Tennessee?

Oh please.

JPeterman on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Where was Reagan in the polls on April 26, 1980?

fossten on April 26, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Where is Reagan?

Answer: not in this race.

MadisonConservative on April 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Told you so – Angryed

RickB on April 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Mittens may suck, but he does not suck that much…

Considering Karl Rove is one of the architects of the democrat take over of congress in 2006 and Obama’s election of 2008 I really don’t put much stock in his fortune telling abilities.

:)

William Eaton on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

It would certainly help Romney’s case if all states actually award their electorates proportionality instead of the unconstitutional popular vote appropriations.

nobar on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Via Dave Weigel. For a compulsive eeyore like me, if the daily polls showing O ahead are like a shot of whiskey, this is like a shot of heroin. Eyes rolling back in my head.

Whoa, easy with the doom. I think you’ve had enough for today.

We can’t have you OD before the general or we’ll get all cocky and then do something stupid.

As opposed to getting all depressed and then doing something stupid…

Wow, that was a depressing thing to think.

Damn, I was trying to do an intervention, but AP just gave me some of his stash and now I’m hooked too.

RINO in Name Only on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

spare me, this incumbent is vulnerable.

rob verdi on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Rove is a Democrat!
Polls don’t matter!
Poll are all run by Democrats!
But Rasmuseen says Romeny will will by 29%!
Etc,
Etc,
Etc.

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Mitt can take OH, PA and MI without too much trouble. Probably FL too, he is leading there now. Yeah, that bit about Texas “leaning” Romney is funny too. This is BS at this point.

echosyst on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Obama will lose VA, FL, and the entire Midwest with the exception of IL and possibly MI.

Don’t look at today’s polls, look at the 2010 House results. Mitt is going to break 300, people are sick of Obama and have been for two years.

You do not win re-election with a double-digit negative passion index. Will not happen.

TallDave on April 26, 2012 at 4:50 PM

I don’t buy this crap, Rove probably voted for Obama.

Alabama Infidel on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Mr. Rove would like you to click on his site today and every day until Nov. 6th to watch the map slowly change colors. He’s extremely smart when it comes to elections but a genius at marketing.

sherry on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I wonder what results Eric Holder is planning for ?
Afterall, his people will be controlling the polling stations , right?

burrata on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

WI is solidly for Obama. Don’t know why, but his approval rating here has been consistently stronger than other states.

gumbyandpokey on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Nothing matters until the first debate. That being said, I expect Obama to make Romney look like a fake old rich guy in that debate.

davemason2k on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

If you follow the link to Rove’s report, at the bottome he predicts the “lean Obama” states will shift to “toss up” or “lean Romney” as the campaign progresses. Relax people, way too early to get the jitters.

ratherbskiing on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

On the one hand, how seriously should we take a projection that has South Carolina as a toss-up? Maybe this is Rove knowing that his map will get attention and using it to scare conservatives into donating and GOTV volunteering. On the other hand, none of his other state projections look obviously wrong to me.

Actually, I see plenty wrong (besides the SC projection).

TX, SD, GA, KY, & TN are only Lean Romney??

CO & NM are hard in the Obama column??

Bitter Clinger on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Reagan was down 25 points against Carter for those of you that were wondering.

echosyst on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

But, but—Romney was supposed to be sooOOoOoOOoo electable, right guys?

It doesn’t matter the polls, if the states are in cheating range!

Sekhmet on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Electable

FloatingRock on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

In order to believe this, pessimists have to believe a RINO that they probably don’t like anyway. Funny.

thebrokenrattle on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Remember, Romney is still “suffering” from the Primary season. When we move into General Election and Romney’s organization gets going, you’ll be hearing nothing but “Economy Economy Economy” (which is too bad, because O is weak on so many fronts). The polls will shift to people voting against Obama (because rare is the candidate that can get people to vote for them) and, barring sudden economic turnaround, Obama loses.

I’m more worried about the Senate. The RNC really needs to turn the Senate deep red, and I’m not sure Romney’s coattails are big enough for that to happen. Depends on how badly Obama will collapse in October.

Nethicus on April 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

I would guess Romney wins Florida and North Carolina, but loses Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. Virgina will be within a point or two either way.

gumbyandpokey on April 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Well…that it.
It’s over.
Why try.
Can’t win.
All is lost.
Liberals are right.

Mimzey on April 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Who cares what Toyko Rove, or for that matter Charles Saurkraut
has to say. I have had enough of them. Don’t watch, don’t listen,
don’t care.

Amjean on April 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

WI is solidly for Obama. Don’t know why, but his approval rating here has been consistently stronger than other states.

gumbyandpokey on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I don’t buy that one bit. Not with Walker and Johnson in office, and Walker looking like he’s going to beat this recall.

MadisonConservative on April 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

CO & NM are hard in the Obama column??

Bitter Clinger on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

I live in Colorado; Obama will win this state easily.

Romney has no chance whatsoever here.

Norwegian on April 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Norwegian on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

You’re nutters.

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Where was Reagan in the polls on April 26, 1980?

fossten on April 26, 2012 at 4:43 PM

I could go with the cheap shot, but if memory serves, Reagan was still sweating out George HW Bush in the primaries.

Steve Eggleston on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Karl Rove is starting to make Dick Morris look credible.

JPeterman on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Lots of time left and non-poll trends not favoring Obama.
I’ll observe calmly until August.

Jabberwock on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

At what point to the Mitt-tards admit they were wrong?

(Yes that is a rhetorical question, of course they will never do so)

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

When gas goes $5-plus a gallon, then show me that map, Rove.

stefanite on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Rove spewed venom against Gingrich and Santorum to get us Romney and now he presents a map saying he is going to lose? And what is this about Texas, South Dakota and Wisconsin as toss ups or for Obama? Texas? Really? Really???

Smedley on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Ahem.

I’ve been downright friendly to Romney compared to the projections that are coming out of Rove, Sabato, and HuffPo. I have him at least getting to about 197-200 EVs, and with Obama a mere 43 shy of victory, with the remainder being tossups.

Way to go establishment! Way to go!

Stoic Patriot on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I still say Obama loses in a landslide, and I’m sticking with it.

1nolibgal on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

When is the first debate between Mitt and Obama? Should be for a good laugh.

davemason2k on April 26, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Rove must not be paying for his own gas or food out of his own pocket…

Seven Percent Solution on April 26, 2012 at 4:55 PM

GOP muthahumpin’ geniuses!

Nominate a Northeastern Liberal for President and he can’t even carry the Northeast!

BEAUTIFUL BABY!!

HondaV65 on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Mittwits to cal Allah a fvkwit in321…

katy the mean old lady on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM


Tokyo Rove harshin’ my buzz

What should really harsh your mellow is that Rove had been pimping Romney for months before he became the putative “presumptive nominee”. Now suddenly Rove is covering his massive sagging buttocks by telling us a story closer to the truth about what the trend and demographic data projects about Willard’s non-performance in a general election.

casuist on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

If you follow the link to Rove’s report, at the bottome he predicts the “lean Obama” states will shift to “toss up” or “lean Romney” as the campaign progresses. Relax people, way too early to get the jitters.

ratherbskiing on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I noticed this (and believe it) myself. If the incumbent is struggling to reach anywhere close to 50 this early in the game, he’s in deep doo-doo unless the economy takes off like a rocket, which would require it to defy pretty much every indicator.

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Mr. Rove would like you to click on his site today and every day until Nov. 6th to watch the map slowly change colors. He’s extremely smart when it comes to elections but a genius at marketing.

sherry on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Rove can shove it where the sun doesn’t shine.

Bitter Clinger on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

katy the mean old lady on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Can we skip that and just call you one instead?

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

If you want to stick to 1980 political analogies, think of Romney as a John Anderson.

Norwegian on April 26, 2012 at 4:48 PM

How about 1985 political/boxing analogies with John Alderson? Look it up for a fun little fight.

thebrokenrattle on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I’m of the opinion Obama loses in a landslide. He’ll make Carter look like a champ.

search4truth on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

How can you take these projections seriously, AP? Obama is not winning Florida. He didn’t exactly dominate in that state in 2008, it’s traditionally gone for the GOP, and it went heavily Republican in 2010. Ohio is more of a toss-up, but it’s still a normally red state and again went for Republicans in 2010. Virginia? C’mon, that state’s gone for the GOP every single time in recent memory with the lone exception of 2008 and McDonnell won by 18 points in 2009(and that was BEFORE Obamacare was rammed through).

So let’s say Romney picks up Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. And let’s assume he wins back Indiana since there’s no way in hell Obama takes that state again. Same with North Carolina which he won by fewer than 14,000 votes in 2008. And that lone electoral vote he managed to steal in Nebraska. That brings Romney to 266.

So now all Mittens has to do is win one of the following states and he reaches at least 270: New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The last 4 are toughies, but he could easily swing any of the first 4. People need to chill the F out. It could be a very close election, but the map frankly favors Romney right now.

Doughboy on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

For a compulsive eeyore like me, if the daily polls showing O ahead are like a shot of whiskey, this is like a shot of heroin. Eyes rolling back in my head.

Dude, I’m nervous.

Wait until the Luftwaffe switches to blitzing cities instead of the airfields.

Steve Eggleston on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Wisconson going to Obama? NC and SC tossups? Excuse me, but…

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!!!

…no wait, I’m okay….

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Turtle317 on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

GOP muthahumpin’ geniuses!

Nominate a Northeastern Liberal for President and he can’t even carry the Northeast!

BEAUTIFUL BABY!!

HondaV65 on April 26, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Reposting this just so people can see this individual celebrating a prediction of an Obama victory.

Just so there’s no confusion on who the fakes are.

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

TruCons: Second look at Karl Rove?

Client Number Nine on April 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Where is Reagan?

Answer: not in this race.

MadisonConservative on April 26, 2012 at 4:49 PM

When is the election?

Answer: Not today. Or tomorrow. Or the next day. Or…

Well you get the idea.

Unless you’re a total dumb schmuck.

fossten on April 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Rove was sure the repubs would not take back the house shortly before the 63 seat blowout. he was projecting 37-39 seats. how quickly so many forget the results of every election since 08…christie, mcdonnell, scott brown, 63 in the house, walker/wisconsin, and all the historic 2010 statehouse results…all resounding rebukes of obamunism. this election can only be a referendum on obama and he will lose.

phillysfinest on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Can we skip that and just call you one instead?

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

By all means. What would stop you?

katy the mean old lady on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

At what point to the Mitt-tards admit they were wrong?

(Yes that is a rhetorical question, of course they will never do so)

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

About the same time the Obama-tards admit they’re wrong.

search4truth on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

AZ & MO may very well go to O. Rmoney is as uninspiring as it gets. Are people really going to come out in droves to vote for him? Especially if Obama is out front come election day?

DBear on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

So tell me, Karl. Are you volunteering to be tarred and feathered if you turn out to be right?

CurtZHP on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Reposting this just so people can see this individual celebrating a prediction of an Obama victory.

Just so there’s no confusion on who the fakes are.

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Honda has never claimed to be a supporter of Mittens. Only fakes I see here are paid shills by the Romney campaign posing as “conservative voters”.

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

At what point to the Mitt-tards admit they were wrong?

(Yes that is a rhetorical question, of course they will never do so)

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

No – they’re not wrong, IT’S YOUR FAULT because you didn’t want to put the same people in charge of the ship that sank it in 2008 (GOP Establishment).

You should be ashamed of yourself! You ought to know – this ain’t about actually saving the nation – it’s about WINNING an election! Hoo Yaaa! Who CARES what happens after November – this is like the Superbowl or something so support the team!!

Yay Team!!

HondaV65 on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM


And what is this about Texas, South Dakota and Wisconsin as toss ups or for Obama? Texas? Really? Really???

Yes, really, and this is simply the grim reality expressed in trend-lines and demographic categories. Romney is a north-east establishment figure who governed as a progressive. This won’t sell well in TX among GOP base voters. And everyone but Karl Rove knew that until right this very second when Rove made an about-face with a new story.

casuist on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Nothing matters until the first debate. That being said, I expect Obama to make Romney look like a fake old rich guy in that debate.

davemason2k on April 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Well, he’ll certainly try, but the debates will be interesting because neither man is much good at extemporaneous speaking. Because of the nature of the race — an incumbent versus a challenger — I predict Romney will have Barack on defense much of the time, and Barack does very, very poorly on defense, then the Obamamedia “moderator” will have to swoop in and save him, and everyone watching will see that the affable dunce was thrown a life preserver. These debates will be far, far different than 2008, when neither man was an incumbent with a record as president.

Rational Thought on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Michigan went Red in 2010, captured the state offices, the legislature went red, and we have more red congress critters in the House than Blue. We might even oust Stabenow this cycle in the Senate, as there are good peeps running in the GOP primary.

Romney has a shot here, and NOT because this is his “home state”. No one under 60 remembers that his dad was governor. The reason he has a shot here is that millions of union jobs have been lost here in 3 decades, and the population has declined dramatically in the blue voting counties. Even Detroit barely has 750,000 people whereas they has 2 million in 1950.

And many of the retired union peeps have retired out of state. So the voting is shifting here and people just are overlooking the new demographics.

karenhasfreedom on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

TX, SD, GA, KY, & TN are only Lean Romney??

CO & NM are hard in the Obama column??

Yep, this is what happens when you look at polls of adults and RVs in a year like this.

Turnout is going to be much more like 2010 than 2008.

TallDave on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

On the one hand, how seriously should we take a projection that has South Carolina as a toss-up?

Maybe Romney can’t win without all of those southern or evangelical or tea party type voters, eh? But, all of his supporters have been telling me for months that these brain dead rubes that want a small government conservative to vote for are worthless pieces of crap that are not needed. The data doesn’t fit with what the Romney supporters have been telling me. I know. Crazy. Don’t everyone fall over in shock all at once.

besser tot als rot on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

A deal is a deal, right RNC? I can’t believe someone looked at Hillary Clinton’s 2008 strategery and thought it was a good idea!

Sekhmet on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

TruCons: Second look at Karl Rove?

Client Number Nine on April 26, 2012 at 4:58 PM

“Conservative” used as a slur again. But no. Rove is obviously a Moby working for the communists and Obama. Except, of course, when he’s “telling it like it is” about Christine O’Donnell et al.

ddrintn on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

In order to believe this, pessimists have to believe a RINO that they probably don’t like anyway. Funny.

thebrokenrattle on April 26, 2012 at 4:52 PM

The flaw in your reasoning is that even if Rove was motivated to give Romney the benefit of the doubt, that would indicate that his projection might actually be overly optimistic.

FloatingRock on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Romney is unelectable.

I think Rove’s map is probably realistic, if not slightly on the optimistic side for Romney’s chances.

Norwegian on April 26, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Have you gone to Intrade yet and loaded up on those Obama to win futures while they’re only $60 or are you unwilling to put your money where your mouth is?

alchemist19 on April 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

About the same time the Obama-tards admit they’re wrong.

search4truth on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

How were they wrong? They said he’d win. He won. They said he’d win again. He’ll win again.

Mitt-tards screamed ELECTABLE ELECTABLE for 2 years and he may very well lose worse than McCain.

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

What Romney needs is to hire Karl to show him the way…/

d1carter on April 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I will run naked through the streets with my hair on fire if Obama wins South Carolina!!

William Eaton on April 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

I still say Obama loses in a landslide, and I’m sticking with it.

1nolibgal on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Inspite of that happening,
will Obama voluntarily leave the WH in Jan 2013 ?
Will he ever be able to get rid of him and his thugs ?

burrata on April 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

How were they wrong? They said he’d win. He won. They said he’d win again. He’ll win again.

Mitt-tards screamed ELECTABLE ELECTABLE for 2 years and he may very well lose worse than McCain.

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Ed! When you didn’t show in the other doom electoral map thread I was worried something bad had happened to you. How ya been?

alchemist19 on April 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Turnout is going to be much more like 2010 than 2008.

TallDave on April 26, 2012 at 5:00 PM

LOL. Turnout in mid-terms is NEVER like in presidential elections.

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

South Carolina a toss-up? I don’t think so.

Worked up to North Carolina and it will be closer, but I don’t think Mitt loses that one either.

I think in reality each candidate has about 200 EV locked and that will not change much, and the true battleground states will be Ohio, MI, PA, FL, etc. Whoever gets more than half of these wins the election.

mwbri on April 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Reposting this just so people can see this individual celebrating a prediction of an Obama victory.

Just so there’s no confusion on who the fakes are.

Red Cloud on April 26, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Celebrating? FOOL – I’M VOTING FOR OBAMA – not your damned northeastern liberal! I’ve stated this many times.

I got a choice between Socialist – and Socialist lite (who cross-dresses as a Conservative).

I’ll go for the best looking Socialist here – who’s also not so gender confused!! LOL

HondaV65 on April 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I could go with the cheap shot, but if memory serves, Reagan was still sweating out George HW Bush in the primaries.

Steve Eggleston on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Your memory is correct, Steve. And also, we were told that year the Republicans were doomed because proto-RINO John Anderson was going to split the vote.

Mr. D on April 26, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Clinton was at 26% at this time in 92…I am not worried. Obama is toast.

bopbottle on April 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Have you gone to Intrade yet and loaded up on those Obama to win futures while they’re only $60 or are you unwilling to put your money where your mouth is?

alchemist19 on April 26, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Have you done likewise with Mittens? He’s at 35. You’ll nearly triple your money if he wins.

angryed on April 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

AZ & MO may very well go to O. Rmoney is as uninspiring as it gets. Are people really going to come out in droves to vote for him? Especially if Obama is out front come election day?

DBear on April 26, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Hey, genius, Obama didn’t win MO last time. I don’t think he’s gaining any ground there.

Bitter Clinger on April 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

If it’s this obvious this early, why don’t we all just accept socialism and give up now. If we’re can’t fight for the country, if it’s too damn hard to want the America we grew up in, if Karl Rove and his prognostications make your eyes roll back in your head, then this country is a blessing we don’t deserve.

Some of us will fight on.

vityas on April 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I still say Obama loses in a landslide, and I’m sticking with it.

1nolibgal on April 26, 2012 at 4:54 PM

But inspite of that happening, will we be able to get rid of Obama and his thugs ?
He won’t leave the WH voluntarily….

burrata on April 26, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Lol everyone needs to relax. He’s just going off based on the polls as of right now. That’s going to naturally favor Obama. If you’ve listened to Rove at all over the past few months, he’s consistently said that Romney has a real shot at winning this. NH, IN, NC, and FL will probably flip back to red this time around. We need to focus on VA and OH.

GOPRanknFile on April 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Sure, South Carolina is a “toss up”. /s

Malachi45 on April 26, 2012 at 5:04 PM

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