Pollmania: Obama leads Romney by seven nationally, by nine in New Hampshire

posted at 4:01 pm on April 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

Second look at dog-eating?

That’s the biggest lead he’s had against Romney dating back to last August. Follow the link and scroll down and you’ll see that it’s independents who are driving it, flipping from a 45/39 split in favor of Mitt 10 days ago to a 45/43 in favor of O. Gallup reasons that a dip in gas prices must be behind it, but the dip we’re talking about here is roughly five cents in the national average. Hard to believe you’d see a poll effect this dramatic because of something as meager as that. I think what we’re looking at here is a very noisy poll.

Not sure about this one, though:

The WMUR Granite State Poll shows Obama leading Romney 51 to 42 percent [in New Hampshire]. That’s close to the 10-point lead Obama had over Romney in December…

The results are a dramatic flip from October, when Romney led Obama 50 to 42 percent. Smith said that shows the Democratic base is mobilizing…

The poll shows a mixed picture in terms of the president’s approval rating in the Granite State. Fifty percent said they approved of the job Obama is doing, while 47 percent said they disapproved. The gap has shrunk a bit since February, when 51 percent said they approved and 43 percent disapproved.

I don’t understand the “Democratic base is mobilizing” logic when it comes to polls. Their base would have answered this question the same way in October as they’re answering now. It’s more likely that Romney’s numbers have shrunk because, thanks to six months of a bitter GOP primary, indies know him better now than they did then and some don’t like what they see. That’s not a disaster — conservative Super PACs will begin the attack ad carpet-bombing campaign against O soon enough — but surely no one’s thrilled to see Mitt start the general election this far back in his own backyard. Nominating a “Massachusetts moderate” was supposed to help Republicans put northeastern states in play, states like New Hampshire and … er, realistically I guess that’s it.

I have a powerful eeyorish urge to go curl up in the fetal position so I’m going to go do that now. Here’s something to entertain yourself with, though — a new election model from WaPo that purports to predict the likelihood of an Obama victory or defeat based on two simple indicators, economic growth over the first three quarters of this year and his approval rating in June. In order to knock his chances of reelection below 50 percent, you need zero percent growth and a job approval of 45 percent. Possible, but not likely.


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I can hardly wait to read what the mindless Mitt supporters will say…let’s take a guess.

Polls not accurate
Poll not balanced
Too early
The only poll that counts is the one after election
Poll is slanted
Who ever took the poll is liberal
…I am sure there are a few I am missing, and never underestimate the mindless from creating something “unique”.

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Let the blood letting begin.

RickB on April 24, 2012 at 4:05 PM

The AngryEd Bat Signal has been engaged!!!

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Romney’s numbers have shrunk because, thanks to six months of a bitter GOP primary, indies know him better now than they did then and some don’t like what they see.

It’s not Mitt they dislike, they see his tactics and the tactics of his supporters and they are ugly and it is coming home to roost…as predicted.

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:06 PM

right2bright, it is not about being a “mindless mitt supporter” to note that polls are often manipulated. But either the arguments make sense or they do not.

Mr. Joe on April 24, 2012 at 4:06 PM

I can hardly wait to read what the mindless Mitt supporters will say…let’s take a guess.

I’m not saying that Romney is unelectable, I’m just saying that all the data supports that conclusion.

casuist on April 24, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Gallop has Romney down by 7%?! That liberal polling outfit? Why doesn’t this crazy, biased, mormon-hating, anti-Romney website mention that the totally unbiased WSJ poll has Romney down by only 6%?!

Buckshot Bill on April 24, 2012 at 4:08 PM

it’s independents who are driving it, flipping from a 45/39 split in favor of Mitt 10 days ago to a 45/43 in favor of O

Makes sense. The last couple of news cycles must have reminded Independants of their halcyon days of dog eating, sneering at SAHMs and finding out half their staff is either wiping their asses with taypayer benjamins or banging Colombian hookers.

Kataklysmic on April 24, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Here we go again….

sandee on April 24, 2012 at 4:10 PM

I’m not saying that Romney is unelectable, I’m just saying that all the data supports that conclusion.

casuist on April 24, 2012 at 4:07 PM

But…but…but Electability is his strong suit. That’s what Bluegill said.

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Dixie laughs.

kingsjester on April 24, 2012 at 4:10 PM

I can hardly wait to read what the mindless Mitt supporters will say…let’s take a guess.

Polls not accurate
Poll not balanced
Too early
The only poll that counts is the one after election
Poll is slanted
Who ever took the poll is liberal
…I am sure there are a few I am missing, and never underestimate the mindless from creating something “unique”.

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:04 PM

I’m not gonna make excuses, but an 8-point swing in independents in a span of a week and a half does seem a little unusual. At least when one considers how nothing notable has happened in that timeframe. No gaffes to speak of, no positive economic news for Obama to latch onto, no major foreign policy success, no major nationally broadcast speech, nothing.

Let’s see what happens over the weeks to come. If the polls settle into a range like this with Obama leading by 5-9 points, then I’ll be concerned. But if(as I suspect) this is just an anomaly, then a week or two from now we’ll look back and realize we were getting worked up over nothing.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:10 PM

In Rasmussen’s national tracking poll, Romney leads Obama 48-44.

No need to be Eeyore yet, there are over 6 months of campaigning left to influcence people’s votes.

Besides, Eeyore was a donkey, so Democrats should be depressed.

Steve Z on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

The Secret Service is “Obama’s staff” Kataklysmic, you are on some other stuff right now….

libfreeordie on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Another poll…

… Drink!

(saving mine for later)

Seven Percent Solution on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

It is not May yet folks…

William Eaton on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Polls are only accurate if they show Obama loosing. If it takes 0% growth to get Mittens in the White House then that’s what some will hope for.

Politricks on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:04 PM

How’s your candidate, _________, polling against Obama now?

Oh right – no one is polling those matchups anymore because he/she was either defeated by Romney or was to much of a chicken$hit to run.

The Count on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

How shocking. Once again Allahpundit find the worst poll number he can for Romney and uses them as the premise for how screwed we are with Romney.

Hey pundit how about the Rasmussen poll showing Romney up by 4 nationally today? Gallup has been all over the place so far tthis season with weekly 7 point swings. Highly erratic.

mitchellvii on April 24, 2012 at 4:12 PM

it’s independents who are driving it, flipping from a 45/39 split in favor of Mitt 10 days ago to a 45/43 in favor of O

Makes sense. The last couple of news cycles must have reminded Independants of their halcyon days of dog eating, sneering at SAHMs and finding out half their staff is either wiping their asses with taypayer benjamins or banging Colombian hookers.

Kataklysmic on April 24, 2012 at 4:09 PM

That and how dare Romney put a dog on his car. Dogs are to be eaten!!

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Well the first defense of Romney should be Gallup’s poll is of registered voters. Registered voters and likely voters are two different things, since D’s almost always have an advantage in registered voters (primarily from the dead, felons, and illegals still on or added to the rolls) , whereas R’s carry the advantage in likely voters.

It’s still not good news, but we’ll see.

BKennedy on April 24, 2012 at 4:13 PM

The Secret Service is “Obama’s staff” Kataklysmic, you are on some other stuff right now….

libfreeordie on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Would you like to go on record right now and guarantee that none of the white house advance team engaged in any of the shenanigans in Colombia?

Ps. A fish rots from the head.

Kataklysmic on April 24, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Rommey is unelectable.

Our only hope now would be to replace Romney at the convention somehow. If Romney is our nominee, its a guaranteed 4 more years for Obama.

Romney’s numbers have plummeted and will only get worse.

Norwegian on April 24, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Cause: Class Warfare. Unfortunately, that tactic works in America.

WordsMatter on April 24, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Bbbbbut this poll was taken on a day that ends in “Y” and everyone knows polls taken on days that end in “Y” favor Democrats. So these polls don’t count.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:14 PM

It’s not Mitt they dislike, they see his tactics and the tactics of his supporters and they are ugly and it is coming home to roost…as predicted.

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:06 PM

It’s a tremendous flight of independents from the Romney camp because butthurt supporters of the campaigns who lost keep getting insulted in the comment sections of blogs.

What a travesty, the behavior of those Mittwits.

KingGold on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

wow, the msm’s plan is totally working. I am disheartened, won’t even volunteer for Romney, let alone vote.

joeindc44 on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I’m not gonna make excuses, but an 8-point swing in independents in a span of a week and a half does seem a little unusual. At least when one considers how nothing notable has happened in that timeframe. No gaffes to speak of, no positive economic news for Obama to latch onto, no major foreign policy success, no major nationally broadcast speech, nothing.

You missed the victory of Romney in the prior week that sealed his nomination. That was the source of a boost. Also keep in mind that independent voters are fickle and move in hordes. Independents are also far more likely to cast their vote based on personality, and every poll shows Obama far ahead in that respect.

But does it really matter? Obamacare vs Romneycare? Same difference.

bayam on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

They told me we had to put up an electable Republican against Obama, or Obama would cruise to election, and they were right!

Just tweaking you, Romneyites. It’s early yet. Go team. Sis boom bah.

Robert_Paulson on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

In Rasmussen’s national tracking poll, Romney leads Obama 48-44.

No need to be Eeyore yet, there are over 6 months of campaigning left to influcence people’s votes.

Besides, Eeyore was a donkey, so Democrats should be depressed.

Steve Z on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

That’s the poll I pay the most attention to(sorry, angryed). Rasmussen places a lot of emphasis on having a realistic, accurate polling sample which is why you don’t see Romney up 5 one week and down 7 the next like in Gallup. I respect Gallup, but that kind of swing is frankly absurd.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Let’s see what happens over the weeks to come. If the polls settle into a range like this with Obama leading by 5-9 points, then I’ll be concerned. But if(as I suspect) this is just an anomaly, then a week or two from now we’ll look back and realize we were getting worked up over nothing.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:10 PM

It’s only January February, March April, too early for polls to mean anything.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

OK, so does this mean Obama has basically won the election?

WarEagle01 on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Just last week Gallup had Obama at 43% approval with no good news since then (tiny dip in gas prices? I mean cmon). Gallup never tells us their party affiliation sampling. Why has Gallup always been.the “pollster of record” when the regularly miss the actual results by huge margins.

Stop working for Team Obama Allahpundit. Get on the Romney train or shut up.

mitchellvii on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

How shocking. Once again Allahpundit find the worst poll number he can for Romney and uses them as the premise for how screwed we are with Romney.

Hey pundit how about the Rasmussen poll showing Romney up by 4 nationally today? Gallup has been all over the place so far tthis season with weekly 7 point swings. Highly erratic.

mitchellvii on April 24, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Yeah, a gander at all of the polls taken over the past 8 days have Rasmussen as the far outlier. There’s a whole lot of blue Obama’s on this page.

libfreeordie on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

The Secret Service is “Obama’s staff” Kataklysmic, you are on some other stuff right now….

libfreeordie on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Would you like to go on record right now and guarantee that none of the white house advance team engaged in any of the shenanigans in Colombia?

Ps. A fish rots from the head.

Kataklysmic on April 24, 2012 at 4:13 PM

But Jay Carney said they already investigated and the WH advance team was as pure as the wind-driven snow.

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Thank god we did not have daily tracking polls during the American Revolution…

William Eaton on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

That’s the poll I pay the most attention to(sorry, angryed). Rasmussen places a lot of emphasis on having a realistic, accurate polling sample which is why you don’t see Romney up 5 one week and down 7 the next like in Gallup. I respect Gallup, but that kind of swing is frankly absurd.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Rasmussen was the worst major pollster in 2010. And it wasn’t even close.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Not worried. Obama will lose. The easy and politically correct thing to do is say you’re voting for Obama when know damn well you’re not.

Go RBNY on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Whatever. My chances of even showing up at the polls are plummeting.

besser tot als rot on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Allah,

Don’t ever come near my foxhole.

Ever.

chimney sweep on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Rommey is unelectable.

Our only hope now would be to replace Romney at the convention somehow. If Romney is our nominee, its a guaranteed 4 more years for Obama.

Romney’s numbers have plummeted and will only get worse.

Norwegian on April 24, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Someone get Priebus on the line – STAT! Norwegian says we have no chance of winning because Romney is unelectable – aaack!!! What have we done?!?!?!

The Count on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Thank god we did not have daily tracking polls during the American Revolution…

William Eaton on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

I like that!

sandee on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

if this person wins re-election to US prez then I move out of the US, never thought I say that.

losarkos on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

The AngryEd Bat Signal has been engaged!!!

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:05 PM

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:14 PM

And thar she blows!

Trafalgar on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

“That’s not a disaster — conservative Super PACs will begin the attack ad carpet-bombing campaign against O soon enough — …”

What are they waiting for…?

Seven Percent Solution on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

But Jay Carney said they already investigated and the WH advance team was as pure as the wind-driven snow.

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Oh my. Well if as unimpeachable a source as King Barry’s lawyer has cleared him, then I stand corrected.

Kataklysmic on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

The AngryEd Bat Signal has been engaged!!!

Bitter Clinger on April 24, 2012 at 4:05 PM

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:14 PM

And thar she blows!

Trafalgar on April 24, 2012 at 4:19 PM

It’s only January February, March April, too early for polls to mean anything.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

You think April polls are an accurate indicator of what’ll happen in November? I guarantee you half the country couldn’t even name the GOP (presumptive)nominee right now if asked. Hell, they’d struggle to come up with the VP’s name.

Wait til the late summer when people really start paying attention. Plus that’s when we’ll know for certain which direction the economy’s headed this year and at that point independents will be prepared to make their final decision. Right now they’re in that “I like Obama, but I’m not sure if I’m gonna vote for him again” mindset.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:19 PM

It’s only January February, March April, too early for polls to mean anything.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

We both know that last Fall’s polls are the only ones that matter.

besser tot als rot on April 24, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Is it too early to bust out some cheap bourbon?

dczombie on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I love how all of a sudden Gallup is not to be trusted. A week ago when Gallup had Romney up by 2% you fools were acting like the election was over and you were lining up to buy your Romney Inauguration 2013 commemorative hats.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Gonna be a long 6 months.

Yawn.

Joe Mama on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

The Rasmussen tracking poll is of LIKELY voters.

The Gallup tracking poll is of REGISTERED voters.

This asinine WMUR NH poll is of random ADULTS.

Let’s start by throwing out the NH poll.

matthew8787 on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Wow, gallup most have changed their samples around.

rubberneck on April 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Sturm und drang. There’s no way Obama is going to be reelected.

John the Libertarian on April 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Not worried. Obama will lose. The easy and politically correct thing to do is say you’re voting for Obama when know damn well you’re not.

Go RBNY on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

OLD: Polls are biased in favor of Democrats

NEW: People are telling pollsters lies

Always an excuse with the Rombots.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

I’m not a Romney guy, but I think these polls are smelly and I don’t believe them. Maybe I have too much faith in the American people? Surely they will oust the socialist.

mydogspot on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Just checked the accuracy in final polling results for 2008 and Rasmussen and pew were the top 2. Sorry Angry wrong again.

sandee on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

It’s not Mitt they dislike, they see his tactics and the tactics of his supporters and they are ugly and it is coming home to roost…as predicted.

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:06 PM

I seem to recall a pretty nasty battle between Hillary and Obama. Just sayin.

Filmmaker Jay Roach’s new HBO movie “Game Change” based on the book by political reporters Mark Halperin and John Heileman focused exclusively on the trials and tribulations of the McCain-Palin 2008 presidential campaign and chose to ignore the vicious primary covered in the book between then Senator Barack Obama and then Senator Hillary Clinton. In fact, the irony is that the majority of the book is primarily focused on the race between Obama and Clinton. 

FLconservative on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Mitt against Obama by 4

Ron Paul down by 5

Newt down by 8

But, but I thought we should have nominated Gingrich.

sheikh of thornton on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

If Romney is “just the same” as Obama, why do you even care? Why do you keep showing up? Is it a cry for attention?

John the Libertarian on April 24, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Americans would do well to take any poll with a grain of salt or two. What matters is how you vote in November, and whatever the outcome may be, you’ll get exactly what your country deserves…

Common sense says that Obama will likely suffer the most lopsided, humiliating defeat in American political history. However, polls indicate that nearly half of your voting population apparently lacks common sense.

Take that as you will…

NorthernEx on April 24, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Wow, gallup most have changed their samples around.

rubberneck on April 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

There were several “methodological problems” according to Axelrod. Correcting those and finding the horsehead in their bed really straightened things out. Mainly the horse head.

Kataklysmic on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

That’s the poll I pay the most attention to(sorry, angryed). Rasmussen places a lot of emphasis on having a realistic, accurate polling sample which is why you don’t see Romney up 5 one week and down 7 the next like in Gallup. I respect Gallup, but that kind of swing is frankly absurd.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Rasmussen has shown swings of +3 Obama, then +6 Romney, then Tie, all within about two weeks. For whats it worth.

I do find it funny that Rasmussen is the preferred poll now, as is LV polls; but when Rasmussen has Romney down by 9 in VA, then the first RV poll that shows Romney winning gets talked up like its gospel.

Buckshot Bill on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

But, but I thought we should have nominated Gingrich.

sheikh of thornton on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Yeah, we’d be down by 10 right now.

rubberneck on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

The Rasmussen tracking poll is of LIKELY voters.

The Gallup tracking poll is of REGISTERED voters.

This asinine WMUR NH poll is of random ADULTS.

Let’s start by throwing out the NH poll.

matthew8787 on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

“Likely voter” is Rasmussen’s guess of who is likely to vote. It can very easily be a wrong guess. The questions are something like have you voted before, do you plan on voting this yea? Answer yes to both of these and you’re a likely voter. Answer no to either and you’re not a LV. It’s subjective and I think less accurate to rely on than registered voter. At least with RV it’s a binary data point that everyone can agree to. But “likely voter” can mean different things to different people. Which is why Rasmussen is all over the map with his polls.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

There’s a whole lot of blue Obama’s on this page.

libfreeordie on April 24, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Which, of course, is past tense for…

CycloneCDB on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

But, but I thought we should have nominated Gingrich.

sheikh of thornton on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Yeah, we’d be down by 10 right now.

rubberneck on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

I thought polls are meaningless. So we need to nominate Romney based on polls showing him to be electable. But then ignore polls that show he’s not electable. Pretzels are envious of Mitt-tards.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Thanks Republican Establishment for pushing a guy that has been running for 6 years now and still no one really likes him and those that do vote for him don’t vote for him but against the other guy

journeymike on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Thanks Mittwits for giving us a nominee who is so terrible that he can’t even beat the worse POTUS in history. I know it must have taken you all hours and hours searching for a candidate so bad that he makes Obama look good. Thanks Again. We are so screwed. But hey at least the left won’t laugh at us this time. Isn’t what this has been all about anyway picking a nominee the left couldn’t laugh at?

unseen on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Just checked the accuracy in final polling results for 2008 and Rasmussen and pew were the top 2. Sorry Angry wrong again.

sandee on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

I said 2010. But nice try. No Romney sticker for you today.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM


But does it really matter? Obamacare vs Romneycare? Same difference.

I’ll say. I’m supposed to vote for the least not-conservative, right? Which one of the 2 is it again?

casuist on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM

So last week when Romney was up it was “Hey, Carter was up at this time to Reagan and lost” Polls mean nothing!! ROMENY SUCKS!!

Now, it’s “See I told you that Romney was horrible Obama is beating him right now!!!” ROMNEY SUCKS!!

Can’t have it both ways you mindless ABBR drones…..

tpw on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Maybe it was Mitt’s joining hands with Barky re: student loans.

SouthernGent on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

But, but I thought we should have nominated Gingrich.

sheikh of thornton on April 24, 2012 at 4:22 PM

We should have Nominated Newt, at least a case can be made that he would govern as a conservative. The more prominent Mittheads on the site have repeatedly conceded that there isn’t a reason to vote FOR Romney.

Buckshot Bill on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

On the upside, if we have to lose, Mitt’s the perfect guy for the job.

TexasDan on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

I do find it funny that Rasmussen is the preferred poll now, as is LV polls; but when Rasmussen has Romney down by 9 in VA, then the first RV poll that shows Romney winning gets talked up like its gospel.

Buckshot Bill on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

They’re pathological.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Dog. It’s what’s on the menu.

Roy Rogers on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

GGAUD! These are DAILY polls which means I am going to have to listen to the same BS every day? The campaign for Obama began 3 years ago when everything he has done is a payout for votes- cash for (insert interest group here). The republicans have just come out of the gates. Lets not get too high or two low over any poll until July.

I know two independents who say they don’t like Romney and when asked why I got- the dog thing and he seems so stiff. If this is what people vote for in this country – it deserves to continue to tumble.

Bensonofben on April 24, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I love how all of a sudden Gallup is not to be trusted. A week ago when Gallup had Romney up by 2% you fools were acting like the election was over and you were lining up to buy your Romney Inauguration 2013 commemorative hats.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

You’ve been doing the exact same thing.

Chuck Schick on April 24, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I love how all of a sudden Gallup is not to be trusted. A week ago when Gallup had Romney up by 2% you fools were acting like the election was over and you were lining up to buy your Romney Inauguration 2013 commemorative hats.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Let me first remind you that you are an idiot.

Now that we have that out of the way, no one was saying it was game over when Gallup had Romney slightly ahead, or even the day he was ahead by 5. You didn’t have much to say then, IIRC. You don’t have much to say about Rasumssen now either, except now that he’s inaccurate. If he has a poll showing Obama ahead, you will hold it up as Gospel no doubt because, as I said, you are an idiot.

Incumbents don’t get unelected very often, but we’re in range and Obama has nothing to run on – which is far and away better starting position than any of the cranks you wanted to run. (That is, if you weren’t on Team Obama from the jump anyway.)

The Count on April 24, 2012 at 4:29 PM

I said 2010. But nice try. No Romney sticker for you today.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Nice try . No Obama sticker for you today.

I checked the final poll results for a race that Obama was actually running in

sandee on April 24, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Let’s start by throwing out the NH poll.

matthew8787 on April 24, 2012 at 4:20 PM

sure delusional, let’s bury all the evidence that we don’t like. You sound like the global warming crowd who wants to bury the evidence that shows their theoiry is full of holes but keep the evidence that proves “beyond a doubt” they are right. Typical liberal crap.

unseen on April 24, 2012 at 4:30 PM

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:24 PM

“Everyone can agree” that only a portion of registered voters bother to show up even for a presidential election.

And you’re treating likely-voter models as some sort of educated guess or something that can be evaded with a simple lie. That’s not even close to the truth. Exit polling, among other things, provides excellent data to estimate demographics for successive elections.

And let’s take the Silver canard that Ras was “one of the worst” pollsters and throw it right out. That’s based on some small-sample polls in states in ’10 that turned out to be way off, mainly because they were taken well in advance of the election. Silver’s still got a stick up his rear because Ras “floods the zone” because they can poll cheaply and often with a high degree of accuracy.

KingGold on April 24, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Any chance Mitt can flip-flop enough to take the lead in the polls?

idesign on April 24, 2012 at 4:30 PM

I know two independents who say they don’t like Romney and when asked why I got- the dog thing and he seems so stiff. If this is what people vote for in this country – it deserves to continue to tumble.

Bensonofben on April 24, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Yet they don’t mind Obama’s “dog thing” or his record as President? If that’s what passes for an independent voter these days, then just lump them in with Democrats when doing these polls and let’s end the charade.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:31 PM

We should have Nominated Newt, at least a case can be made that he would govern as a conservative. The more prominent Mittheads on the site have repeatedly conceded that there isn’t a reason to vote FOR Romney.

Buckshot Bill on April 24, 2012 at 4:27 PM

If Newt stays in thew race he has my vote come May 8th in NC

unseen on April 24, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Obama leads Romney by seven LSM NEWS PUBLICATIONS nationally, by nine in New Hampshire

(restored missing words to make headline accurate)

landlines on April 24, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Thank god we did not have daily tracking polls during the American Revolution…

William Eaton on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

lol

I guess what I find funny is how gleeful some “conservatives” here are when a poll is less than good news for Romney.

Its like they are rooting for Romney to lose and Obama to win… for what? To prove a point? The principle of the thing?

Ay Dios mio. Silly people. ;-)

RightWay79 on April 24, 2012 at 4:32 PM


On the upside, if we have to lose, Mitt’s the perfect guy for the job.

Thank you for helping me frame this disaster in terms of its irony.

casuist on April 24, 2012 at 4:33 PM

thought polls are meaningless. So we need to nominate Romney based on polls showing him to be electable. But then ignore polls that show he’s not electable. Pretzels are envious of Mitt-tards.

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:26 PM

In angryed world, the conservative candidate who runs worst against Obama should be our guy. I have seen smarter dog turds.

sheikh of thornton on April 24, 2012 at 4:33 PM

So, so called “conservative” are happy about this poll ’cause it proves…what. That their choice would have been better so nyah nyah. Phooey.
If only Santorum or Gingrich had won, why they would be leading in the polls by eleventy!!!

bluealice on April 24, 2012 at 4:33 PM

angryed on April 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

If Romney is “just the same” as Obama, why do you even care? Why do you keep showing up? Is it a cry for attention?

John the Libertarian on April 24, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Trolls gotta troll.

whatcat on April 24, 2012 at 4:33 PM

How’s your candidate, _________, polling against Obama now?

Oh right – no one is polling those matchups anymore because he/she was either defeated by Romney or was to much of a chicken$hit to run.

The Count on April 24, 2012 at 4:11 PM

My candidate now is losing by nearly 10%…how’s that pal…
You may think it’s just dandy to be in the race, I happen to think just being chosen to represent the Republican is not enough to win. As evidenced by these polls.

right2bright, it is not about being a “mindless mitt supporter” to note that polls are often manipulated. But either the arguments make sense or they do not.

Mr. Joe on April 24, 2012 at 4:06 PM

No, it doesn’t matter if they “make sense or not” that is why Republican’s lose election…it doesn’t make sense that a no-nothing has done-nothing person is elected over a national war hero with decades of experience…it didn’t make sense, except it happened.
And you guys have the same sense of entitlement, Mitt won so everyone should support him and everyone will because he is the better man…it doesn’t work that way, it doesn’t make sense.
The polls are accurate, because for the past 6 years, no poll has been much different…Mitt does not connect, and his hard core supporters are about as obnoxious, arrogant towards conservatives as you could get without being a flaming liberal.

right2bright on April 24, 2012 at 4:34 PM

If that’s what passes for an independent voter these days, then just lump them in with Democrats when doing these polls and let’s end the charade.

Doughboy on April 24, 2012 at 4:31 PM

welcome to my wporldview. There is no independents just people who can’t stand the parties. They are liberal or conservative leaning ther eis no payday to go after these people they don’t exist. there is no independents. there is no magical middle. this election like every election will be a base election and Mitt has no base.

except the mittwits that live in the NE who can never carry their states for the gop.

unseen on April 24, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Odd that Gallup has trended in Obama’s direction following Axelrod’s whining about their sample. Hmmm.

As for NH’s poll. Please. I live here. NH went heavy right in 2010. And this UNH pollster was wrong on every thing leading up to the election. Obama has an approval of about 38%.

kevinkristy on April 24, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Not worried. Obama will lose. The easy and politically correct thing to do is say you’re voting for Obama when know damn well you’re not.

Go RBNY on April 24, 2012 at 4:17 PM

At the risk of sounding like angryed, that is probably the stupidest thing I’ve seen or heard this week.

steebo77 on April 24, 2012 at 4:35 PM

I guess what I find funny is how gleeful some “conservatives” here are when a poll is less than good news for Romney.

RightWay79 on April 24, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Mitt’s not a Conservative. If you believe so, you’re severely mistaken.

kingsjester on April 24, 2012 at 4:35 PM

“That’s not a disaster — conservative Super PACs will begin the attack ad carpet-bombing campaign against O soon enough — …”

What are they waiting for…?

Seven Percent Solution on April 24, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Reloading?

de rigueur on April 24, 2012 at 4:35 PM

As long as CNN’s Don Lemon confirmed that Palin is right…

“I don’t put a lot of stock in polls,” Palin said. “Polls are good for cross-country skiers and strippers.”

Fallon on April 24, 2012 at 4:36 PM

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