Pollmania: Obama leads Romney by seven nationally, by nine in New Hampshire

posted at 4:01 pm on April 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

Second look at dog-eating?

That’s the biggest lead he’s had against Romney dating back to last August. Follow the link and scroll down and you’ll see that it’s independents who are driving it, flipping from a 45/39 split in favor of Mitt 10 days ago to a 45/43 in favor of O. Gallup reasons that a dip in gas prices must be behind it, but the dip we’re talking about here is roughly five cents in the national average. Hard to believe you’d see a poll effect this dramatic because of something as meager as that. I think what we’re looking at here is a very noisy poll.

Not sure about this one, though:

The WMUR Granite State Poll shows Obama leading Romney 51 to 42 percent [in New Hampshire]. That’s close to the 10-point lead Obama had over Romney in December…

The results are a dramatic flip from October, when Romney led Obama 50 to 42 percent. Smith said that shows the Democratic base is mobilizing…

The poll shows a mixed picture in terms of the president’s approval rating in the Granite State. Fifty percent said they approved of the job Obama is doing, while 47 percent said they disapproved. The gap has shrunk a bit since February, when 51 percent said they approved and 43 percent disapproved.

I don’t understand the “Democratic base is mobilizing” logic when it comes to polls. Their base would have answered this question the same way in October as they’re answering now. It’s more likely that Romney’s numbers have shrunk because, thanks to six months of a bitter GOP primary, indies know him better now than they did then and some don’t like what they see. That’s not a disaster — conservative Super PACs will begin the attack ad carpet-bombing campaign against O soon enough — but surely no one’s thrilled to see Mitt start the general election this far back in his own backyard. Nominating a “Massachusetts moderate” was supposed to help Republicans put northeastern states in play, states like New Hampshire and … er, realistically I guess that’s it.

I have a powerful eeyorish urge to go curl up in the fetal position so I’m going to go do that now. Here’s something to entertain yourself with, though — a new election model from WaPo that purports to predict the likelihood of an Obama victory or defeat based on two simple indicators, economic growth over the first three quarters of this year and his approval rating in June. In order to knock his chances of reelection below 50 percent, you need zero percent growth and a job approval of 45 percent. Possible, but not likely.


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It’s clear the public is not settled in its preferences and the inconsistent results of the various polls, together with the wild swings from one candidate to the other from one week to the next or from a few days ago to the present, are what you’d expect when pollsters push for respondents to make an either/or choice under such conditions. People know Obama, they don’t know Romney yet. At the same time the very fact that there’s this kind of noise and so much indecision also means there’s a lot of doubt out there about the last 3 1/2 years. That can’t be good for Obama since all this translates to a lot of people being unsettled–unsure–in other words, undecided–and they usually break for the challenger at the last moment.

writeblock on April 24, 2012 at 8:55 PM

The election isn’t a popularity contest about who is ahead in traditionally blue states. For one, you really need to poll likely voters; second, they call up a bunch of dems and ask them and then skew the results to how many dems came out in 2008, weighting for demographics. No one knows if it will be the same.

In Massachusetts, we elected Scott Brown; Gov. Duval Patrick was re elected with only 40 something percent of the vote. The government workers had to be told at work to go vote, and for whom on election day. In MA, the presidential primary day is also a political day for the parties. The turnout for Obama and the democrat election was lack luster. Duval Patrick is not even campaigning in Massachusetts, he is on vacation, I mean, campaigning in California, making new friends.

I would not pay too much attention to these kind of polls, you need to be able to read what the internals and crosstabs and how they weight democrat vs. republican in terms of actual numbers, and using voters who regularly get to the polls every election day, called, Likely Voters. We just cannot know which Unlikely voters will show up for Obama. You can’t do that math.

Fleuries on April 24, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Americans are dumb?

KOOLAID2 on April 24, 2012 at 9:00 PM

JPeterman grew up in a Communist country, I grew up 5 minutes from the Iron Curtain. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Maybe, just maybe, if you take a walk 5 minutes from your home and you meet a friendly policeman who tells you that you better turn around or you might get shot from across the border – maybe then you will understand what it means to live in the shadow of Communism.

Gelsomina on April 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Since you claim to know, care to tell me what it is all about?

My family has only lived in USSR since the day it was formed so we have absolutely nio idea what it is “all about”, your inability to approach the wall is something, something I tell you! Incredible that you could not approach the wall, how dare they and who do they think they are?

How about not being able to buy food? Or rather,even if you had money to buy food and not having food in stores? How many in your family were “relocated”, that’s best case scenario if they weren’t executed, when commies were “redistributing wealth” in their zeal of nation building? How many families did you have to share your apartment with?

If anything, you guys have no idea what it is “all about”.

riddick on April 24, 2012 at 9:01 PM

I looked at that Washington Post formula. Pie in the sky? Here is what my husband said to me. In the summer, once again, business is going to come to a standstill around your vacation time, and they will Really Really not know how to predict the future with an election coming, and they will be full of hope that Romney wins, and full of despair that Obama might win again, and not know how to prepare, so they will not hire anyone, and make only the plans necessary to get to election day. Nothing will matter, they will not know which course to take so they will do nothing, and hold their breath. So any growth has to happen now, and in May and June, up until July. (For many that is also the end of a fiscal year.)

I guess the only thing that could be worse would be if they lay people off due to no projection of work, and say they will hire people back after election day…if. The taxes go up automatically on January 1, 2013. The cuts at the pentagon happen right? The Obama care taxes go into effect, and a lot of other things no one is talking about.

Fleuries on April 24, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Does anyone really think Obama = Romney if you factor in foreign policy and SCOTUS?

kim roy on April 24, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Romney would be far worse for Republicans.

Yes I believe Romney would choose just as bad of Judges just like he did in Mass.

Romney will do absolutely nothing to stop Obamas agenda in the Middle East.

Either way we are totally screwed unless GOD steps in. Or by some miracle Romney is not the nominee.

Steveangell on April 24, 2012 at 6:28 PM

I don’t give a flying F about republicans or the GOP or whatever – just trying to make the best choice possible out of a bad bunch.

We’re going to have to disagree on what you said above because while I don’t think Romney will do much in stopping what’s already happening, he won’t actively encourage and move it on either.

This election really is about the lesser of the two evils. It seems our mileage does indeed vary.

kim roy on April 24, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Since you claim to know, care to tell me what it is all about?

My family has only lived in USSR since the day it was formed so we have absolutely nio idea what it is “all about”, your inability to approach the wall is something, something I tell you! Incredible that you could not approach the wall, how dare they and who do they think they are?

How about not being able to buy food? Or rather,even if you had money to buy food and not having food in stores? How many in your family were “relocated”, that’s best case scenario if they weren’t executed, when commies were “redistributing wealth” in their zeal of nation building? How many families did you have to share your apartment with?

If anything, you guys have no idea what it is “all about”.

riddick on April 24, 2012 at 9:01 PM

So you DO know that there is a difference between the Soviet Union and France or Sweden. Why do you claim otherwise?

Gelsomina on April 24, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Well said. I believe you’re a fellow Palin supporter as well right? I know it’s not easy to support the wimpy moderate in Mitt, but Obama must be defeated.

I would add in Obamacare to the two things you listed above. The next four years is the only shot we have at repealing it.

Romney will sign a repeal bill. He’s promised to do so, it’s on his website, and it would be political suicide for him not to do so.

LevinFan on April 24, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Yep. Palin all the way. I think she would have been fearless in taking a rusty axe to the debt and spending.

It is extremely painful to defend Romney, but I only do so because the alternative is unacceptable.

If Romney actually becomes president, the LSM may be our biggest allies with respect to Obamacare – can you imagine the BS that would happen if he were to renege on his promises? Welching is only tolerated if you are a Democrat.

kim roy on April 24, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Obama leads nationally by 600 points. Romneybots blame Limited government Conservatives.

What exactly has Mitt done to give voters a reason to vote for him?

RINOGEDDON 2012!!!!!!

PappyD61 on April 24, 2012 at 9:25 PM

You wouldn’t know a Communist if it jumped up and bit in the arse.

JPeterman on April 24, 2012 at 6:25 PM

You claim to have lived under communism. If so, you would know that calling Obama a “Communist” and a “Marxist” is a wee bit of an exaggeration. He’s more of a European social democrat, or a Fabian socialist, or something in the mold of Eduard Bernstein. He’s a statist. And everything in Romney’s political record indicates that he too is a statist, but one who is for a much softer, slower approach than Obama’s pedal-to-the-metal. If Obama is so obviously a “Marxist”, as in a believer in disaster-theory, then Romney needs to be honest and say so.

Now, I don’t know if you saw it or not, but one of your compadres called me a “commie”. Now, why didn’t you jump to my defense and rip apart this blatant misuse of the term “commie”? That sort of dishonesty is a hallmark of lefties, isn’t it?

ddrintn on April 24, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Okay..But JPeterman knows what communism is..:)

Dire Straits on April 24, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Most apparently he does NOT since I won that argument hands down.

DannoJyd on April 24, 2012 at 7:15 PM

No, you’re picking the nit to death. People under communism are often called “communists”, but do not “support” it. Only the people leading support it because they don’t actually have to practice it.

At least that’s what I got out of it, but then I’m not nitpicking.

kim roy on April 24, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I would not pay too much attention to these kind of polls, you need to be able to read what the internals and crosstabs and how they weight democrat vs. republican in terms of actual numbers, and using voters who regularly get to the polls every election day, called, Likely Voters. We just cannot know which Unlikely voters will show up for Obama. You can’t do that math.

Fleuries on April 24, 2012 at 8:59 PM

And here we go again. Why were polls so vital 2 and 3 years ago in determining that Romney was so eminently electable, but now just a few months away from the election we really can’t make heads or tails of them, we have to examine the crosstabs and samples and Likely versus Registered versus Adults versus landlines versus cellphones…?

ddrintn on April 24, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Now, I don’t know if you saw it or not, but one of your compadres called me a “commie”. Now, why didn’t you jump to my defense and rip apart this blatant misuse of the term “commie”? That sort of dishonesty is a hallmark of lefties, isn’t it?

ddrintn on April 24, 2012 at 9:29 PM

You called Romney supporters “brownshirts”, so why should anybody jump to your defense? Or do you think that it is honest to compare them to Nazis?

Gelsomina on April 24, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Says someone who has no idea. Communism is not able to change your job unless your “work book” has been marked with permission from current employer. Communism is walking into a supermarket and seeing empty shelves instead of food. Communism is having at least some of your family members serve time, pretty much every family was affected. Communism is not having private property. Communism is not having private business. Communism is sharing a 3 room (not 3 bedroom, 3 ROOM) apartment across 3 separate families, that is if you were lucky to share an apt. Communism is filing out forms, at the beginning of each school year, listing your nationality. Communism is selling out your neighbors in order to gain career advancement or better living arrangements. Neighbors making up stories to tattle tell on you in hopes of taking over your room if you were convicted on hearsay and jailed. I can go and on and on.

Not one of those listed above applied to Czechoslovakia. Nor Poland. Not any other Eastern European states outside of proper USSR. They were socialist, more so than Sweden and others, but in no way even close to USSR communist/socialist model. Those guys had a really good life, all things considered, when compared to ours. They had apartments, they had cars, they had FOOD, they could watch western movies if they wanted to.

I want him to tell me with a straight face that his life in Czechoslovakia was even close to the brutality we faced on daily basis.

riddick on April 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Wow that paints quite the brutal picture.

Do you see any communist tendencies in either Obama or ROmney? If so, what?

LevinFan on April 24, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Noise.

Heh, don’t you wish.

avgjo on April 24, 2012 at 9:51 PM

A dip in gas prices explains it. Wormtongue, how stupid do you think we are?

minnesoter on April 24, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Not one of those listed above applied to Czechoslovakia. Nor Poland. Not any other Eastern European states outside of proper USSR. They were socialist, more so than Sweden and others, but in no way even close to USSR communist/socialist model.

riddick on April 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Romania was worse.

Gelsomina on April 24, 2012 at 10:04 PM

You know, I am getting really tired of being intentionally PROVOKED by this leering stock photo of Obama day after day.

What is your game, ALLAHPUNDIT? You know what I think? I think you are contemptuous of us.

minnesoter on April 24, 2012 at 10:09 PM

To glom on to Ted Nugent, if the election were held today, I would either be happier than I’ve been in years, or I would be in jail.

minnesoter on April 24, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Obama leads nationally by 600 points. Romneybots blame Limited government Conservatives.

What exactly has Mitt done to give voters a reason to vote for him?

RINOGEDDON 2012!!!!!!

PappyD61 on April 24, 2012 at 9:25 PM

How about not electing OBAMA for a 2nd term!

It may not be enough for you, but I can comprehend what this country will be like with a 2nd term for Barry.

ccrosby on April 24, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Allahpundit: A favor, please. I think that I will die if I have to look at that skaggy, winking, snot-faced picture of Obama that is featured for this article. Can you please try to locate one that is less visually appalling, so I retain my sanity through this election season.

Thanks.

Mutnodjmet on April 24, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Good grief. Bork was defeated because he was unabashedly pro life. You are two of the dumbest people on this site.

Romney has the wholehearted support of Paul Ryan but that’s not good enough for you? No anti-Romney comment is so stupid that you won’t say it.

Basilsbest on April 24, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I am voting for Romney..Plus my point was that I am glad Bork is helping Romney ..:)

Dire Straits on April 24, 2012 at 10:47 PM

“Pollmania: Obama leads Romney by seven nationally, by nine in New Hampshire”

This is stated like it is some sort of fact. Hot Air and the MSM are fast becoming indistinguishable.

minnesoter on April 24, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Bork was defeated because he was unabashedly pro life.

Basilsbest on April 24, 2012 at 8:30 PM

No, he was defeated because he was smart and conservative,and they couldn’t have that. Anthony Kennedy is unabashedly pro-life and no one cared. Six of the justices are Catholic, in fact.

alwaysfiredup on April 24, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Hot Air and the MSM are fast becoming indistinguishable.

minnesoter on April 24, 2012 at 10:52 PM

This is a surprise to you?

alwaysfiredup on April 24, 2012 at 11:19 PM

No one can beat Obama but Ron Paul. The GOP had their opportunity to get behind a real conservative (Ron Paul) and now Romney is the tool they put up to face Obama. Laughable. There is absolutely no difference in Romney and Obama. In any case, I’ll be writing in Dr. Paul. Ron Paul in 2012 y’all!

air_up_there on April 24, 2012 at 11:22 PM

Registered DEm…oh pleeeze people….choosing between Romney or Obama is a major no brainer.

elclynn on April 24, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Didn’t HBO just premiere some “comedy” show about a female vice president?

Buckshot Bill on April 24, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Beats me. I don’t pay for the dubious privilege of watching the filth they produce. If I desired filth I would watch PMSNBC for free.

DannoJyd on April 25, 2012 at 1:29 AM

When Sarah Palin supports Romney will you call her a communist?

Rusty Allen on April 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Should Sarah support Romney then she may well be a communist supporter. You know! The Individual MANDATE!

Why Mitt Romney May Suffer if SCOTUS Rules Against Mandate

Report: Romney adviser lobbied for individual mandate

Top Ten ways Mitt Romney could still lose the GOP nomination

4. Reverse his position (again) on abortion. Pro-choice all the way.

5. Bet Rick Perry $100 million that he loves dogs more than the Texas governor.

6. Advise Bain Capital to buy “Etch A Sketch” and rename it “Romney Re-start.”

7. Endorse ObamaCare and reassure Americans that he now — and always — will support an individual mandate for all Americans to buy health insurance.

8. Reveal that he believes in evolution, modern science and climate change.

9. Remind voters that he voted for Barack Obama against that old coot John McCain.

DannoJyd on April 25, 2012 at 1:45 AM

Communism is an economic term, socialism is a political term.

Gelsomina on April 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Don’t you have that backwards? Does Communism involve the redistribution of wealth?

JPeterman grew up in a Communist country, I grew up 5 minutes from the Iron Curtain. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Gelsomina on April 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Hmm …

I don’t need to be shot to understand bullets hurt, nor do I need to be a woman to know where babies come from.

While I didn’t suffer from the political effects of Communism I certainly see many instances of it being practiced by American politicians. The Individual Mandate remains unconstitutional and a loss of freedoms that only a communist could appreciate.

If 0bama-Romney care becomes law, people with machine guns loaded with hollow point ammunition will visit the houses of Americans who refuse to participate. Is that Communist enough for you?

DannoJyd on April 25, 2012 at 1:57 AM

No one can beat Obama but Ron Paul. The GOP had their opportunity to get behind a real conservative (Ron Paul) and now Romney is the tool they put up to face Obama. Laughable. There is absolutely no difference in Romney and Obama. In any case, I’ll be writing in Dr. Paul. Ron Paul in 2012 y’all!

air_up_there on April 24, 2012 at 11:22 PM

Be sure to drop by and leave us a farewell note when the mothership comes to take you home.

JFS61 on April 25, 2012 at 1:58 AM

At least that’s what I got out of it, but then I’m not nitpicking.

kim roy on April 24, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Maybe if you quit working so hard to ignore the facts you would realize that PRACTICING Communists DO also practice Socialism.

You’re not nitpicking? *Facepalm*

DannoJyd on April 25, 2012 at 2:35 AM

BURN THAT UGLY PICTURE.

leftnomore on April 25, 2012 at 2:40 AM

Obama leads nationally by 600 points. Romneybots blame Limited government Conservatives.

What exactly has Mitt done to give voters a reason to vote for him?

RINOGEDDON 2012!!!!!!

PappyD61 on April 24, 2012 at 9:25 PM

I know what Willard will do to mobilize conservative voters….put Portman on the ticket for VP. Yup, that will do it! [sarc]

JeffVader on April 25, 2012 at 3:47 AM

Willard is on track for a 10 point loss in November. The only consolation is that the House may hold and surely would have been lost had Saintorum won the nomination.

Annar on April 25, 2012 at 7:05 AM

Not looking good. Get ready for another four years of Obama. It’s gunna be a bumpy ride, as he’ll attempt to finish off the job of transforming America. Scary times.

steve123 on April 25, 2012 at 8:02 AM

Romney up over Obama by another point in Rasmussen today — 49-44.

That’s three days in a row he has seen his lead over Barack — among likely voters — expand.

Rational Thought on April 25, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Where is Allahpundit’s new article CELEBRATING Romney’s big new 5 POINT LEAD in the Rasmussen Poll today?

Oh that’s right, Romney being ahead doesn’t fit Allah Non-Pundit’s meme of electoral disaster.

mitchellvii on April 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Anyone who pays attention to left wing polls this far out with their insanely biased samples are either crazy or stupid.

A recent CBS poll actually had 11% more Democrats than Republicans. THIS is the kind of junk Allahpundit is telling us to be worried about. I am assuming that since Gallup’s numbers agree with CBS’ that their sample is just as pathetic.

mitchellvii on April 25, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Gallop is just confirming what I’ve said all along. 45% of this country are WILLFULLY IGNORANT, which means that they are STUPID!!!!!

Colatteral Damage on April 25, 2012 at 5:30 PM

When they stand in that voting booth they have to ask themselves: Can I really take four more years of the black messiah? I think their private and anonymous choice will be other than they indicated during that polling they participated in.

swinia sutki on April 26, 2012 at 8:04 AM

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