Gary Johnson knows where the problem lays and how to fix it.

Mittens 2012: More of the same

The real estate crisis was made worse by the unemployment. Saying people over bought, went away a long time ago. A lot of people could have held on to their payments for a year.

My spouse was unemployed from a professional position for two years at 911, and we paid the mortgage first. This economy prevented that because of the shortage of jobs/contract work, and the fact that businesses continuing to lay off are not looking for new employees.

And that was Obama’s fault, he wouldn’t cut spending, he increased spending to save the state governments, and their workers, and the teachers police and firemen. But that doesn’t save the people that pay for the government. It just makes their bill that much bigger.

He funded government and didn’t do anything to free up the free economy, he raised all departments of the federal government by 25%, thru the stimulus bill instead of rolling back the cost of government on society. Causing stagnation.

And all of the programs they have put out for people with a mortgage in trouble would not have been needed if they had got back to work in 6 months, or a year…or like I said, even two years. This is three years, this is Obama’s plan, the New Normal. They don’t have a lot of interest in your house getting it’s value back, because they think it is unfair that some houses are worth more and in better neighborhoods than others. They want them all worth less, and better yet, all worth the same.

A drop in sales in March might be due to the new appraisal rules, for any mortgage that might end up at Fanny/Freddie. The Dodd Frank effects a new rule or two on appraisals, which thwarts the spring uptick in prices, here is how:

The banks can only use 90 day comparative sales for price comparisons, so any fire sales that happened in Thanksgiving or Christmastime, not big real estate time of the year, are the sales they are looking for right now for comparables. They can’t use homes that sold in August or June or last May. That is NUTS.

They also cannot use local information they have to go by appraisals for a general type of house in a radius around your area, not what we think of as comparables by location location location, which is why one small colonial brings in $180, and another small colonial is $750K. Just miles of one another.

Does anyone know if this is the effect that is working out there?
A realtor told me that she prices the home for sales in the area, and then the appraisers come in and undermine the sale. Usually the home seller does not sell. Let’s say they were someone who was interested in upgrading to something they saw that was priced right in their view, but now they can’t sell because the appraisers cannot be from your local area. Something like that.

Yes He Can!

Maybe AP should do some spring-cleaning, getting a bit fetid in here.

angryed on April 19, 2012

I call BS.

PastorJon on April 19, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Do you not know how to read a chart. REIT is up 300% since early 2009. This is not opinion, it’s fact.

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 4:36 PM

REIT being up does not mean squat. Woohoo! People that came into the recession in good shape are making money by buying foreclosures and turning a profit! Yay for them!

How does that help the part of the population that is not included in the lowest workforce particpation rate recorded? It’s a straw man. Look! Somebody is making money, RE is fine! All it’s doing is consolidating weatlh, which I’m not against but is DEFINITELY not a sign of a recovery. When unemployment is back at the levels the year before Democrats took over both houses (2006), then I’ll give a rat’s you know what how well investors are doing.

I never said your REIT numbers were wrong. But they only mean something if everybody that owns real estate benefits, but they don’t. Only the people invested and participating in them are benefitting, while many Americans lose all their real estate holdings to an overburdened collapsing economy.

On top of that, residential housing starts plummeted 5.8% in March, although permits jumped by over 7%.  Most of the decline came in multi-unit housing.  Permits, however, sharply declined for private single-unit housing:

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000. This is 5.8 percent (±15.6%)* below the revised February estimate of 694,000, but is 10.3 percent (±14.6%)* above the March 2011 rate of 593,000.

Maybe Ed didn’t mean the top statement, “… residential housing starts plummeted 5.8% in March…“, but that doesn’t make sense.
Consider the following reference regarding statistics from the source Ed links above…

* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

I’m not a statistician, but this means the 5.8% decrease that Ed alludes to above truly lies somewhere in the range from 5.8% +/- 15.6%, or in other words, somewhere between -9.8% and 21.4%, including all points in between…
The only relevant point anyone, including Ed, should make is that there is NO significant change among the numbers above, which does not lessen the point.
Let’s not become like liberals who try to see significance where there is none…
Danny on April 18, 2012 at 11:58 PM

Without any other statistical information, is the change cited above truly significant? Or is it simply variable, like weather cycles.

Again, not detracting from the main point, the meaning is the same… Bad for liberals.

Real unemployment at 11%.

Record foreclosures.

Thousands of new regulations.

Deficits growing at a trillion dollars a year.

But everything is fine folks! Angryed is able to buy and rent out homes just fine! We’re totally overblowing these numbers.

This makes no sense. You admit there is opportunity now to make money in r/e. Yet you complain about who is in power. Is Obama to blame for your divorce too? The ODS is in overdrive here.

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 4:39 PM

No I don’t blame Obama for my divorce. I blame Obama for regulatory and spending policies that are causing the bad economic conditions that’s depressing the housing markets overall. I’m saying you claiming everything is fine because “you’ve been able to buy three houses and rent them easily,” is bull. You have the ability to buy, but you’re part of a smaller group than has existed in over a decade!

The left blames banks. The right blames Obama. It’s idiotic on both sides. The real culprit is the tens of millions of people who used their house like an ATM to live a lifestyle they could not afford.

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 3:13 PM

The right doesn’t blame Obama. The right blames the decision by Harold Raines and Bill Clinton to force Fannie and Freddie to create a market for subprime paper, and to support ACORN’s push to give mortgages to people who couldn’t afford them. They said not lending to somebody who couldn’t document any income was “racist.”

That created millions of buyers that couldn’t enter the market before and should have never been buying a house in the first place. Those buyers pushed up the values of homes way faster than inflation, a completely new trend. You can mark it on the graphs. The Bush administration warned congress 23 times from the year they took office that the backing and backstopping of subprime paper would create a bubble and a crash, but people like Maxine Waters praised the now head of Fannie Mae, Harold Raines, “for his excellent management of Fannie Mae.” Harold left in an accounting scandal with a $75 MILLION parachute.

With their houses now increasing by 10-20% every year in value, and being told by talking heads on every channel (except Peter Schiff), even as late as summer 2007, that the unpegged rise would never end, of course people pulled out the equity. $50,000 for 30 years at 5% and a third of the payment for a direct loan on a BMW? Of course they did it!

I’m sure you’ve seen at least one variation of this:

Believe me, if I wasn’t trying to climb out of the debt from a divorce, I’d own several HUD homes by now, be renting them out and preparing to watch my net worth go up when conservatives have a large enough voice in Jan 2013 to turn this thing around!

PastorJon on April 19, 2012 at 4:31 PM

This makes no sense. You admit there is opportunity now to make money in r/e. Yet you complain about who is in power. Is Obama to blame for your divorce too? The ODS is in overdrive here.

Your sarcasm decoder ring needs to be replaced.:)

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Ah. My bad.

Er…J.E. is a contributor to this site. Relax, dude.

alwaysfiredup on April 19, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Your sarcasm decoder ring needs to be replaced.:)

PastorJon on April 19, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Do you not know how to read a chart. REIT is up 300% since early 2009. This is not opinion, it’s fact.

The left blames banks. The right blames Obama. It’s idiotic on both sides. The real culprit is the tens of millions of people who used their house like an ATM to live a lifestyle they could not afford.

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Banks and politicians do share some blame. Fannie/Freddie should never have bought subprime loans. Banks who issued them should have had to keep them on their books so that they were responsible if a lot of lending decisions went bad (which they did). Also, lots of people bought only the house they needed and could afford but then lost a job because of the crappy economy. there’s a lot of fault to go around and a heaping spoonful of plain bad luck.

Are you denying the fact REIT is up 300% since Obama took office?

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Yes, the people with money, a very low debt to income ratio, and good net worth always do better during recessions and depressions. The Great Depression made a lot of millionaires.

You and other real estate investors are able to take advantage of the collapse in the market to buy at discount. I could buy a HUD foreclosure right now at 75% of even a depressed valuation, keep it until the market turns around and be way above water.

That does not mean the economy is doing well. You probably also hate the banks for making a profit, side with the occupy crowd, etc. If you go into a depression or recession with low or no debt, cash on hand or a very secure job, you can come out of it much better off than before. You get to “buy low”.

That does not equate in ANY WAY to better off for anybody else, but like a typical liberal, you live by anecdote. “Things are great, I know because of how well I’m doing!” “We need universal health care because I know of one guy who knows my cousin who got screwed by insurance!” Millions of foreclosures haven’t happened because of the government suit against banks that JUST ended. Another chance for you to increase YOUR net worth, but not good news for the economy and everybody else trying to sell a house because it WILL depress home values because it will depress appraisals that banks use to lend on.

Believe me, if I wasn’t trying to climb out of the debt from a divorce, I’d own several HUD homes by now, be renting them out and preparing to watch my net worth go up when conservatives have a large enough voice in Jan 2013 to turn this thing around!

That’s impossible. Nobody is buying houses because of Obama. You must be a liberal troll.

angryed on April 19, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Er…J.E. is a contributor to this site. Relax, dude.

Real estate sales are always local. What happens in one area, is not the same in another area. The numbers provided by the National Association of Realtors are nationwide, and it’s important to understand it’s not a representation of local markets.

This!