Internal poll: Mourdock 42, Lugar 41 in Indiana GOP primary

posted at 7:16 pm on April 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Whole lot of stories about the tea party having fizzled will need to be rewritten if Mourdock pulls this off. Remember, as of two months ago, he was 25 points ahead.

Indiana state treasurer Richard Mourdock leads Senator Dick Lugar by one point according to a poll commissioned by the Mourdock campaign. Conducted between April 16 and 17 by the firm McLaughlin and Associates, the poll surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and found Mourdock in the lead, 42–41, against Lugar. The poll had a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Since January, Lugar’s favorability rating has fallen ten points, from 57 to 47 percent, while Mourdock’s has risen by eleven, from 35 to 46 percent. “These results clearly demonstrate that Richard Mourdock has the momentum to win,” a memo from pollsters John McLaughlin and Stuart Polk notes.

Mourdock and Lugar held a televised debate just six days ago, so if the internal poll is correct and his numbers are surging, there’s one likely explanation — Indianans finally had a good look at him and liked what they saw. I’m amazed, frankly, that Lugar would do him the favor of raising his name recognition by sharing a stage with him. He’s been winning walkover primaries for more than 30 years; if he ignored Mourdock entirely, it’s a safe bet that some chunk of Indiana Republicans wouldn’t be able to pick RM out of a lineup and would pull the lever reflexively for the incumbent on election day. In fact, according to the Indy Star, while Mourdock outraised Lugar in the last quarter, nearly three-quarters of his donations came from out of state compared to a little more than half for Lugar — an ironic counterpoint to the charge that Lugar’s left Indiana behind by going native inside the Beltway.

Anyway. They had a debate and Mourdock’s suddenly outraising the incumbent and even establishment conservative magazines like National Review are ready to trade Lugar in for new blood. What’s a six-term incumbent who’s in trouble to do? Why, call in the big guns:

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) will roll out two heavy-hitting surrogates in his next round of ads: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Daniels is one of the most popular politicians in Indiana, and is especially beloved by the Republican base. He told The Hill in September that Lugar was a “mentor,” “icon” and “extraordinary public servant” — his support could help Lugar in a big way.

Hard to believe Mourdock can survive both Lugar’s institutional advantage and an endorsement from Mitch the Knife, but since this is tea partiers’ best shot at flexing conservative muscle this year, maybe they’ll take it as a challenge. I’ve got nothing against Lugar, who by all accounts is a lovely man, but the careerist inertia involved in an 80-year-old fighting desperately for six more years at a job he’s held since the late 1970s makes me shudder. If this sad, sclerotic spectacle doesn’t make you think twice about term limits, nothing will.


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good, by the way the meme will be another O’donnell Delaware deal, Mourdock appears to be a moue more established and polished politician who can quickly take over Lugar’s machinery.

rob verdi on April 18, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Pulling for Mourdock. Met him a few times now and he seems like an impressive candidate…. even though his name makes me think of The Time Machine.

Warner Todd Huston on April 18, 2012 at 7:20 PM

The fact that Lugar can’t even vote in the primary should have him even more behind.

Guy has got to go.

gophergirl on April 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Daniels is one of the most popular politicians in Indiana, and is especially beloved by the Republican base.

He’s beloved by the GOP base? I thought they were wary because of that whole truce business?

changer1701 on April 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Whole lot of stories about the tea party having fizzled will need to be rewritten if Mourdock pulls this off. Remember, as of two months ago, he was 25 points ahead.

Hardly.

Lugar is way to the left of Indiana. We can do much better than him. Mourdock is fairly mainstream establishment conservative who has won statewide races before, not a lunatic like Angle or O’Donnell or some newbie to the political scene. It’s weird to be surprised by the National Review endorsement. Had Lugar retired and Mourdock would be the establishment candidate in the primary.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Daniels is one of the most popular politicians in Indiana, and is especially beloved by the Republican base.

He’s beloved by the GOP base? I thought they were wary because of that whole truce business?

changer1701 on April 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Don’t confuse the GOP base with a tiny faction of crazies.

Daniels and Pence will support Lugar out of personal loyalty but I don’t think that matters much.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Been campaigning for Mourdock. His support here in Indiana is very wide. Keeping my fingers crossed.

The TV ads from the Lugar camp are pure mud.

esr1951 on April 18, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Indianans finally had a good look at him and liked what they saw.

AP, as a native of Indiana, the correct term is “Hoosiers”.

Bitter Clinger on April 18, 2012 at 7:26 PM

, so if the internal poll is correct and his numbers are surging, there’s one likely explanation — Indianans finally had a good look at him and liked what they saw

HOOSIERS. For the love of God, HOOSIERS.

Stoic Patriot on April 18, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Beware. Orrin Hatch may hit you in the face over this.

SouthernGent on April 18, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Daniels is one of the most popular politicians in Indiana, and is especially beloved by the Republican base.

As someone who lived in Indiana just a mere year ago, I can tell you that that’s a bunch of bunk.

Stoic Patriot on April 18, 2012 at 7:28 PM

See, this is the perfect kind of primary challenge, right in the same mold as Mike Lee. The incumbent has gone native, and the challenger has a strong resume, an actual history (and not just talk) of conservative policy, and falls in line with the political sensibilities of his state.

Mourdock picked the right battle. He’ll definitely be an asset to conservatives and the movement in general.

KingGold on April 18, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Lugar is way to the left of Indiana. We can do much better than him. Mourdock is fairly mainstream establishment conservative who has won statewide races before, not a lunatic like Angle or O’Donnell or some newbie to the political scene. It’s weird to be surprised by the National Review endorsement. Had Lugar retired and Mourdock would be the establishment candidate in the primary.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM

And Donnelly knocked off Club for Growth President Chris Chocola… As much as I want to see as conservative of a Congress as possible, a Mourdock nomination would be a huge gamble(a la Christine O’Donnell or Sharron Angle) in a state that Obama won in 2008 (I know, I know, O’s not winning there in 2012, chill out).

blammm on April 18, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Daniels just lost my respect if he’s backing RINO Lugar.

Bitter Clinger on April 18, 2012 at 7:30 PM

We must vote out each and every republican and democratic incumbent if Americans want anything to change in Washington.

Zcat on April 18, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Where do I donate?

Nessuno on April 18, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Where do I donate?

Nessuno on April 18, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Right here:

https://www.electmourdock.org/donate.aspx

esr1951 on April 18, 2012 at 7:36 PM

these are the places the herd must be culled. (examples of not where: NV, DE). IN will elect whoever the GOP puts up. so why NOT get someone young AND more conservative. this is the kind of place the TP can do its best work.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Sent this to my sister in Dyer, IN. first reaction…YES!!! Second…HOOSIERS!

herm2416 on April 18, 2012 at 7:38 PM

More information about Mr. Mourdock:

State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is challenging Senator Lugar in the Republican Primary on May 8. In case you don’t know about Mr. Mourdock, he is a geologist by training who became a successful businessman and only then turned to politics. In 2010 he won reelection as state treasurer with a whopping 62% of the vote. Mr. Mourdock came to national attention in 2009 by filing a lawsuit to block President Obama’s bailout of Chrysler, which gave preference to union workers over bondholders, including an Indiana state police pension fund.

esr1951 on April 18, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Sweet…..

alchemist19 on April 18, 2012 at 7:40 PM

And Donnelly knocked off Club for Growth President Chris Chocola… As much as I want to see as conservative of a Congress as possible, a Mourdock nomination would be a huge gamble(a la Christine O’Donnell or Sharron Angle) in a state that Obama won in 2008 (I know, I know, O’s not winning there in 2012, chill out).

blammm on April 18, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Mourdock was elected statewide with 67% of the vote just 2 years ago. He’s no Christine O’Donnell or Sharron Angle.

Donnelly beat Chocola (who was far from a strong candidate/incumbent) in a wave election and running in district that is 8 points more democrat than the state as a whole.

Obviously Lugar would win with 65%-70% of the vote or so while Mourdock will need to work, but the risk of losing the seat is negligible.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 7:40 PM

You’d think you were removing a multi-term, entrenched incumbent’s air the way they claw for the seat. Well, I guess you are, most of it hot.

Anyway, it’s not a House of Lords. Lugar’s done enough. Now it’s time to retire. Or be retired.

AnonymousDrivel on April 18, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Lugar is toast. Goes really will with oven roasted dog, some fava beans and nice chianti.

TXUS on April 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Dickless Lugar needs to go!

GarandFan on April 18, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Hard to believe Mourdock can survive both Lugar’s institutional advantage and an endorsement from Mitch the Knife,

Only in a Washington shill such as yourself that Mitch the Stump has any sort of influence.

promachus on April 18, 2012 at 7:47 PM

“If this sad, sclerotic spectacle doesn’t make you think twice about term limits, nothing will.”

The face of the political elite ruling class…

Seven Percent Solution on April 18, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I sent Mourdock some tea-stained California bucks.

GaltBlvnAtty on April 18, 2012 at 7:54 PM

the careerist inertia involved in an 80-year-old fighting desperately for six more years at a job he’s held since the late 1970s

Maybe people get ‘sick’ with power when they get these jobs. Either that or they get lazy and like the easy money that requires little real work.

yhxqqsn on April 18, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Luger “six term incumbent,” time for him to move on.

tbrickert on April 18, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Get rid of Senator Dick Lugar, Obama’s favorite Republican?

Why YES, that’s a very good idea!

RJL on April 18, 2012 at 8:02 PM

If Lugar loses and then pulls a Murkowski, at least I hope he pulls his own murkowski.

deimos on April 18, 2012 at 8:03 PM

“Say goodnight, Dick!”

n0doz on April 18, 2012 at 8:06 PM

I sent Mourdock some tea-stained California bucks.

GaltBlvnAtty on April 18, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Thanks!

esr1951 on April 18, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Hold it, I thought we/Tea Party were dead. BuBye Lugar.

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I hope Indiana has a sore loser law.

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The question is how Mourdock polls against the Democrat. Beating Lugar is a total waste of time if it just hands the seat to the Democrat. Remember Delaware? Remember Nevada? Is this another case of the tea party candidate getting a Democrat elected to the Senate?

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) will roll out two heavy-hitting surrogates in his next round of ads: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

If anything, this will help Mourdock more than Lugar.

thebrokenrattle on April 18, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Dick Lugar.

Really? There is a human being walking this Earth with THAT name?

Well, he may walk the Earth going forward, but he certainly won’t be walking the halls of Congress.

Key West Reader on April 18, 2012 at 8:19 PM

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Do you ever site TP successes?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:21 PM

the careerist inertia involved in an 80-year-old fighting desperately for six more years at a job he’s held since the late 1970s makes me shudder

Allah

Bingo. Deja vu of Orrin “Barbershop” Hatch telling us how much he hates Tea Party conservatives with a libertarian bent.

Dear Senile Octogenarian doofuses, get yourselves a good nurse, another gross of diapers, and go the fu*k home. We have important work to do … fixing the $15 trillion mess you mfrs have been making for the past 30 years.

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:22 PM

OK, who wants Dick Lugar’s seat?

I mean, his actual chair?

Do they cleanse the chairs for new incoming members of congress, or do the Dicks get to take them home to their adobe’s after they’re kicked out?

Key West Reader on April 18, 2012 at 8:23 PM

PS Mitch — GFY.

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Looks like the Democrat beats Mourdock in polling from last month:

Donnelly leads Mourdock by 34 percent to 28 percent in the poll, while he would trail Lugar by 42 percent to 29 percent.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:23 PM

If anything, this will help Mourdock more than Lugar.

thebrokenrattle on April 18, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Especially McLame. Mourdock should pay him on the stump all over the state for Lugar.

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Do you ever site TP successes?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Shhh. August 2012.

Key West Reader on April 18, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Do you ever site TP successes?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Sure. Allen West was one. I am more in favor of races where a tea party candidate knocks out a Democrat incumbent. So far in the races where the knock out a Republican incumbent, the Democrat simply takes the seat.

The tea party running against Republican candidates so far has turned out to be a pretty stupid idea almost every time.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:25 PM

The question is how Mourdock polls against the Democrat. Beating Lugar is a total waste of time if it just hands the seat to the Democrat. Remember Delaware? Remember Nevada? Is this another case of the tea party candidate getting a Democrat elected to the Senate?

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:15 PM

The last poll before the one AP posted above had Mourdock and Donnelly tied. If Mourdock is now statistically tied, I would think that would give Mourdock a slight lead again Donnelly. Donnelly is a moderate EXCEPT he voted for Obamacare in the house, so Mourdock should win if he wins the primary.

I’m seeing a lot of Mourdock lawn signs, no Lugar. And Mourdock has about 2 to 1 TV ads against Lugar. Lugar’s TV ads are weak sauce. I’m excited about the chance to get a conversative in there.

Not to mention Mike Pence is running for governor so this should be a sweet year for us Hoosiers if all goes to plan :)

dforston on April 18, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Knocking out Lugar just to hand the seat to the Democrat Donnelly doesn’t look like a “victory” to me. I won’t call it stupid, lets just call it “not very smart”.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:27 PM

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:15 PM

So you are for keeping the current set of R’s?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Generally, Bmore, I am for getting rid of some of the Republicans that regularly cross the aisle and vote with the Democrats on key issues BUT only challenge them in deep red states or where the challenger candidate actually has a chance.

In the tie poll someone mentioned it was a Howey/DePauw that had the race 35-35 which leaves 30% sitting on the fence. That is a huge number of undecideds.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Knocking out Lugar just to hand the seat to the Democrat Donnelly doesn’t look like a “victory” to me. I won’t call it stupid, lets just call it “not very smart”.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Donnelly?! You’re nuts. He only got 48% in his own liberal district running against a nobody. He’s a fake pro-lifer — votes pro-abortion on everything while lying about his position. He voted for Obamacare while serving in Notre Dame’s St. Joe county.

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:32 PM

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I see. So no challenge to say Susan Collins?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:35 PM

We’ll see how it plays out, I am just saying that it is probably wise to be careful in knocking out a Republican candidate that is going to easily win a seat for a Republican who might have a pretty tough time of it.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Looks like the Democrat beats Mourdock in polling from last month:

Donnelly leads Mourdock by 34 percent to 28 percent in the poll, while he would trail Lugar by 42 percent to 29 percent.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Sure…in the Democrat poll. Try this one from a month ago, when no one knew Mourdock. And then, what the heck, maybe read the actual post Allah wrote and try to grasp the salient points:

Whole lot of stories about the tea party having fizzled will need to be rewritten if Mourdock pulls this off. Remember, as of two months ago, [Lugar] was 25 points ahead.

Are you a David Brooks Republican…or just a Kossack troll?

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Lugar’s going to roll out ads with John McCain? That should be enough to hand it to Mourdock. Lugar became a Senator during the Carter era, and the kind of Republican he is might have been suitable for those days, but that doesn’t cut it now. His seat should be filled with someone who won’t just roll over for liberals in the name of decorum. If Mourdock can defeat an establishment fixture in a primary, then November is within his reach.

86 on April 18, 2012 at 8:38 PM

So no challenge to say Susan Collins?

You have to consider the culture of the electorate in that constituency. If the electorate there is generally more liberal, you can do fine with getting rid of Collins … but you would probably have to replace her with someone whose politics are pretty close to hers because the people there have politics pretty close to hers.

Having a bunch of people from out of state basically supporting a candidate who does not reflect the political culture of the voters in that state is never going to work.

A candidate is going to have to be someone for whom the people of that constituency can vote. That means that the politics of the candidate have to be fairly close to the politics of the voters or there has to be some overwhelming charisma or some crisis which causes the people to go extremely away from their general tendencies.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Yeah, I looked at that poll. 30% for neither candidate. That is a LOT.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I believe Lugar gave Daniels his first job in politics decades ago, so don’t hold it against Mitch for supporting him.

commodore on April 18, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Where you have a state that is liberal in social values but is in financial trouble you could use the Swedish model. There a center-right government was elected in the 1990′s. They started to slowly dismantle the welfare state, reduced taxes across the board, got rid of the “millionaire taxes”. As a result their economy started to grow away, budget deficits went away, and last year were a great economy in the Eurozone. For the first time in something like 50 years a center-right government was re-elected.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7779228/swedens-secret-recipe.thtml

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:51 PM

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Did this man win because of outside TP influence? I do not follow Maine has he governed well?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:52 PM

“grow away” should be “grow again”.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Yeah, I looked at that poll. 30% for neither candidate. That is a LOT.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:42 PM

And everyone in the state knows Donnelly, whereas Mourdock’s support is just developing. Time for Indiana retire and replace the geriatric Lugar. Can’t wait to see the next poll.

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I see. So no challenge to say Susan Collins?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:35 PM

What for? Do you prefer a democrat on her seat?

joana on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

What for? Do you prefer a democrat on her seat?

joana on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

To replace her. No.

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Crosspatch,

Mourdock isn’t Christine O’Donnell. If you need re-assurance, go watch the only debate that was held. Mourdock was solid and Lugar bumbled during the first half of the debate. You would have thought Mourdock was the incumbent.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/IndianaSenateRe

I think once you see that, you’ll see he’s a good candidate with the ability to win and not a wide-eyed young lady running in the northeast. It’s Indiana. We’re a center-right state.

dforston on April 18, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Did this man win because of outside TP influence? I do not follow Maine has he governed well?

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:52 PM

He won an election, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to win another one. He isn’t very popular at all, at this point.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/maine-has-voters-remorse-on-governor-lepage.html

And Susan Collins has a 60% approval rating in the state, that’s not bad for a Senator.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Also, LePage won by only the slimmest of margins to begin with: 38.33% to 36.49% with about 10,000 votes separating the candidates.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 8:58 PM

People need to understand that different regions have different political cultures. What you might consider a RINO might be considered to the right in another state. People seem to want to create this national political criteria and apply it nationally but that doesn’t work. What works in Oklahoma isn’t going to apply to California and what works in Florida won’t apply to Illinois. Different states are different and those differences need to be taken into account.

Anyway, to get back on subject, dumping Lugar makes great sense IF you have a popular candidate with which to replace him. Otherwise, you might just be handing the seat to the other team.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 9:01 PM

I’ve got nothing against Lugar, who by all accounts is a lovely man,

I’ve got nothing against him either, except for the way he votes. All too often he crosses the aisle and betrays us on the big issues, and he consistently votes to confirm completely unacceptable judicial and executive branch nominations out of a respect for presidential prerogative that Democrats abandoned long ago.

I’ll never forgive his vote against the surge. I don’t want him to have the chance to vote to confirm Eric Holder for the Supreme Court, and you know the nomination is coming if Obama wins a second term.

novaculus on April 18, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Mourdock isn’t Christine O’Donnell.

Wasn’t implying he was, which is why I ASKED first what his polling was against the Democrat. It doesn’t look like he is all that strong against the Democrat so it looks to me like the “tea party” agenda there isn’t so much an “elect Mourdock” movement as it is a “dump Lugar” movement. That might succeed, but in doing so they might elect the Democrat.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 9:03 PM

What for? Do you prefer a democrat on her seat?

joana on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

To replace her. No.

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 8:54 PM

You cant’ replace Collins with a better Republican than her. Even if you can successful primary her from the right that would mean offering the seat to the Democrats.

Check how the Snowe seat is gone. The Independent Liberal will win and the Republican will be lucky to beat the Officially Democrat Liberal.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 PM

So Maine is hopeless. The state is center left. We should be happy to have Collins. Though she is barely an R, at best a blue dog Dem. Certainly not Conservative.

Bmore on April 18, 2012 at 9:12 PM

My internal poll shows me beating Romney for the Republican nomiation 199% to 1%. I’m ahead by 198%.

Internal polls are as reliable as tea leaves or Ouija boards. Internal pollsters get paid to tell the candidate what they want to hear, not reality.

AngusMc on April 18, 2012 at 9:20 PM

The fact that Lugar can’t even vote in the primary should have him even more behind.

Guy has got to go.

gophergirl on April 18, 2012 at 7:21 PM

…really…really…really agree!

KOOLAID2 on April 18, 2012 at 9:27 PM

All you need to know about Lugar to want to get rid of him is that the biggest liberal columnist at the state’s most liberal paper endorses him.

rhit87 on April 18, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Otherwise, you might just be handing the seat to the other team.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 9:01 PM

In a nutshell what is wrong with American politics today. It’s all about my team vs. your team. Who cares how the players actually vote after the game, all that matter is that my team wins.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Nothing will change in Washington until the party is purged of Lugars, McCains, and Romneys.

Valiant on April 18, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Are you a David Brooks Republican…or just a Kossack troll?

Jaibones on April 18, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Crosspatch sounds more like a David Frum Republican to me. Many years Mike Castle had ACU scores under 50%. The older he gets, the more liberal Lugar becomes. He voted for to confirm all Obama’s appointees from Holder to the two leftist Supreme Court justices and was a co-sponsor of the Dream Act. The “go along to get along” philosophy that Lugar has practiced for 35 years has to go.

bw222 on April 18, 2012 at 9:59 PM

What for? Do you prefer a democrat on her seat?

joana on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

What’s the difference?

RINOS always backstab us when it counts.

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 10:03 PM

What for? Do you prefer a democrat on her seat?

joana on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 PM

What’s the difference?

RINOS always backstab us when it counts.

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Nonsense. Collins had a 55 ACU rating last year. The most conservative Democrat was Pryor and he had a 20 ACU rating. Of course, any Democrat from Maine would get a 0 ACU rating – they wouldn’t elect a Blue Dog.

The difference between Collins and her putative Democrat replacement is larger than the difference between Collins and DeMint. That’s the difference for you.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Internal polls are as reliable as tea leaves or Ouija boards. Internal pollsters get paid to tell the candidate what they want to hear, not reality.

AngusMc on April 18, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Why would a candidate pay a pollster – and they’re quite expansive – for that? You can get much cheaper yes men. Do you think it’s possible to win elections by living in a fantasy world?

Internal polls are way more reliable than public polls – they follow different, more sophisticated (and more expensive), methodologies.

What campaigns can often do is to not explicitly tell what numbers they are releasing. Perhaps it’s the numbers after the voters get some bad info about the opponent – and they conveniently leave that fact out of the press release. For example, I’d guess that in this poll, Lugar is actually leading Mourdock by 5-6 points.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Crosspatch sounds more like a David Frum Republican to me.

Actually, I can’t stand Frum.

Many years Mike Castle had ACU scores under 50%. The older he gets, the more liberal Lugar becomes. He voted for to confirm all Obama’s appointees from Holder to the two leftist Supreme Court justices and was a co-sponsor of the Dream Act. The “go along to get along” philosophy that Lugar has practiced for 35 years has to go.

And your comments reinforce exactly what I said. I said the strategy appears to be more of a “dump Lugar” movement than an “elect Mourdock” movement. If you want to “punish” Lugar, just say so. Just realize that in so doing you are going to possibly get a Democrat elected.

Also, most Republicans who cross the aisle generally only do so when they are in the minority. If the Republicans were in the majority in the Senate, I really don’t believe you would see people such as Lugar or Collins or Brown crossing over as much or even at all because there would be no gain for them to do that. The goal should be in getting a majority, not in throwing out these people before you have a majority as the result might be to simply PREVENT the Republicans from taking a majority and keeping the Senate in the hands of the Democrats.

This is why I often lament that these “conservatives” actually seem to be working for the other team because what they end up doing is actually helping the left more than the right. There’s nothing wrong with living with Lugar, we’ve lived with him this long, until we have a majority in the Senate and at that point we can keep him in line. This path simply makes it more difficult to get a majority.

Most of these Senators are only dangerous when the Democrats are in the majority. When the Republicans become the majority, there are other ways of keeping them in check.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) will roll out two heavy-hitting surrogates in his next round of ads: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Heh. McCain is the reason Sarah is not VP right now. Desperate.

Lugar was elected mayor when I was a kid growing up in Indianapolis. Way past retirement now. May get some help in that area real soon.

IrishEyes on April 18, 2012 at 10:32 PM

And your comments reinforce exactly what I said. I said the strategy appears to be more of a “dump Lugar” movement than an “elect Mourdock” movement. If you want to “punish” Lugar, just say so. Just realize that in so doing you are going to possibly get a Democrat elected.

Also, most Republicans who cross the aisle generally only do so when they are in the minority. If the Republicans were in the majority in the Senate, I really don’t believe you would see people such as Lugar or Collins or Brown crossing over as much or even at all because there would be no gain for them to do that. The goal should be in getting a majority, not in throwing out these people before you have a majority as the result might be to simply PREVENT the Republicans from taking a majority and keeping the Senate in the hands of the Democrats.

This is why I often lament that these “conservatives” actually seem to be working for the other team because what they end up doing is actually helping the left more than the right. There’s nothing wrong with living with Lugar, we’ve lived with him this long, until we have a majority in the Senate and at that point we can keep him in line. This path simply makes it more difficult to get a majority.

Most of these Senators are only dangerous when the Democrats are in the majority. When the Republicans become the majority, there are other ways of keeping them in check.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 10:16 PM

It’s a low risk move and you never know how is the environment going to be in six years (or before if Lugar died on his seat and a special election is called). It’s better to just get a younger Republican elected in what will be a relatively favorable cycle for us in Indiana.

Sure, the election is mostly about Lugar. That is to be expected, he’s the long term incumbent. Mourdock was the guy who decided to run against him so he’ll benefit from that. He’s an experienced politician who won two statewide elections, not some inexperienced chump. I’d rather go with him now than face the possibility of an open seat in a 2006 type of environment.

joana on April 18, 2012 at 11:11 PM

With all due respect, we’re “Hoosiers,” not “Indianans.”

By the way, I am voting for Mourdock!

playsalieri on April 18, 2012 at 11:16 PM

Wasn’t Collins or Snowe the sole vote that let Obamacare out of committee?

karenhasfreedom on April 18, 2012 at 11:31 PM

joana on April 18, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Last projections I saw were for the Republicans to take 50 seats in the Senate and for there to be 5 tossups that could go either way. Not sure if that number includes Luger on one of the “sure Republican” or tossup buckets.

In the larger strategic picture, we can’t afford to lose a single Senate seat. In this particular election cycle, if I were living in Indiana, I might be arguing for not dumping Lugar, I might be arguing for just not giving him a committee chair as punishment for voting with the Democrats.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 11:52 PM

Wasn’t Collins or Snowe the sole vote that let Obamacare out of committee?

karenhasfreedom on April 18, 2012 at 11:31 PM

I believe it was Snowe that was the deciding vote. But still, she had pretty high approval ratings in Maine. She is one of the most popular Senators in Congress when measured by her constituency popularity. Maine voters have a 57% positive approval of her as of early March.

crosspatch on April 18, 2012 at 11:55 PM

Throw Lugar out. He’s been party to way too many compromises over the years, and he’s part of the problem. I would actually vote for Democrat over him, just to get him out of there. A fresh Democrat might be workable. Lugar has helped flush the country down the toilet. He can kiss it.

cane_loader on April 19, 2012 at 12:20 AM

I would pick a Democrat over Lugar and McConnell. Those two need go, even if we lose the seat. They’re as bad as Specter, in my opinion, in that they’re in the middle of every GOP surrender I can remember.

cane_loader on April 19, 2012 at 12:23 AM

I’ll never forgive his vote against the surge. I don’t want him to have the chance to vote to confirm Eric Holder for the Supreme Court, and you know the nomination is coming if Obama wins a second term.

novaculus on April 18, 2012 at 9:02 PM

If that happens, I’m serious, the revolt will be at hand. Eric Holder should be in jail. I’m not being hyperbolic. The man should be in jail, possibly for life.

cane_loader on April 19, 2012 at 12:25 AM

Don’t care how good lugar was, it’s time for him to go. Better he fades away gracefully than run out, but that’s his call. Same with any other fogey. Pass the baton to fresh blood instead of hogging it.

AH_C on April 19, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Don’t care how good lugar was, it’s time for him to go.

Even if it means replacing him with a Democrat?

That’s the problem. The Senate is going to be VERY close, we can’t afford to give up any seats to Democrats. Lugar is a sure thing and if the Republicans are the majority, he probably isn’t going to vote with the Democrats. Part of the reason for that is that the Republicans will control what legislation even comes up for a vote. He isn’t going to have the opportunity to do much damage in a majority Republican Senate.

Tough call.

crosspatch on April 19, 2012 at 3:12 AM

Guys like Lugar bankrupted America.

We are bankrupt, by the way; the papers just haven’t been filed yet.

So the idea, then, is to re-elect Lugar just to get his vote, and then to jail him for helping ruin the country?

cane_loader on April 19, 2012 at 3:31 AM

And Donnelly knocked off Club for Growth President Chris Chocola… As much as I want to see as conservative of a Congress as possible, a Mourdock nomination would be a huge gamble(a la Christine O’Donnell or Sharron Angle) in a state that Obama won in 2008 (I know, I know, O’s not winning there in 2012, chill out).

blammm on April 18, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Dipsh*t Donnelly won South Bend and St. Joe County. They are terminally Democrat and will vote for the (D) regardless of the damage to themselves. In short, they are stupid and lazy. Donnelly dropped out when the district was carved up to make it more Republican and he knew he was toast. Now he thinks he can lie and con his way into the US Senate. Maybe Lugar would be a tougher opponent for Donnelly, but I’m voting for Mourdock and Lugar can kiss my pasty, white a$$. I just hope Donnelly stays in DC even as a civilian and stays the @#!k out of my church. I hate that my diocese supported this abortion-enabling POS. And while I’m ranting, Bishop Rhoades can also kiss my a$$ before he ever sees a penny in his bishop’s appeal pot.

swinia sutki on April 19, 2012 at 5:41 AM

Like the majority here, I ordinarily do not like tinkering with incumbents. But it is time and long past time for Lugar to hang it up and go home.

He is a self satisfied RINO and only represents himself.

Spots the Dog on April 19, 2012 at 6:21 AM

Whole lot of stories about the tea party having fizzled will need to be rewritten if Mourdock pulls this off.

And what does this say about Sketchy’s chances in November? One HELL of a lot!

DannoJyd on April 19, 2012 at 6:52 AM

Spots the Dog on April 19, 2012 at 6:21 AM

Speak for yourself. We Conservatives have loooong recognized how Washington ruins even the best politician, which is why we support Term Limits.

DannoJyd on April 19, 2012 at 6:53 AM

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