Internal poll: Mourdock 42, Lugar 41 in Indiana GOP primary

posted at 7:16 pm on April 18, 2012 by Allahpundit

Whole lot of stories about the tea party having fizzled will need to be rewritten if Mourdock pulls this off. Remember, as of two months ago, he was 25 points ahead.

Indiana state treasurer Richard Mourdock leads Senator Dick Lugar by one point according to a poll commissioned by the Mourdock campaign. Conducted between April 16 and 17 by the firm McLaughlin and Associates, the poll surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and found Mourdock in the lead, 42–41, against Lugar. The poll had a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Since January, Lugar’s favorability rating has fallen ten points, from 57 to 47 percent, while Mourdock’s has risen by eleven, from 35 to 46 percent. “These results clearly demonstrate that Richard Mourdock has the momentum to win,” a memo from pollsters John McLaughlin and Stuart Polk notes.

Mourdock and Lugar held a televised debate just six days ago, so if the internal poll is correct and his numbers are surging, there’s one likely explanation — Indianans finally had a good look at him and liked what they saw. I’m amazed, frankly, that Lugar would do him the favor of raising his name recognition by sharing a stage with him. He’s been winning walkover primaries for more than 30 years; if he ignored Mourdock entirely, it’s a safe bet that some chunk of Indiana Republicans wouldn’t be able to pick RM out of a lineup and would pull the lever reflexively for the incumbent on election day. In fact, according to the Indy Star, while Mourdock outraised Lugar in the last quarter, nearly three-quarters of his donations came from out of state compared to a little more than half for Lugar — an ironic counterpoint to the charge that Lugar’s left Indiana behind by going native inside the Beltway.

Anyway. They had a debate and Mourdock’s suddenly outraising the incumbent and even establishment conservative magazines like National Review are ready to trade Lugar in for new blood. What’s a six-term incumbent who’s in trouble to do? Why, call in the big guns:

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) will roll out two heavy-hitting surrogates in his next round of ads: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Daniels is one of the most popular politicians in Indiana, and is especially beloved by the Republican base. He told The Hill in September that Lugar was a “mentor,” “icon” and “extraordinary public servant” — his support could help Lugar in a big way.

Hard to believe Mourdock can survive both Lugar’s institutional advantage and an endorsement from Mitch the Knife, but since this is tea partiers’ best shot at flexing conservative muscle this year, maybe they’ll take it as a challenge. I’ve got nothing against Lugar, who by all accounts is a lovely man, but the careerist inertia involved in an 80-year-old fighting desperately for six more years at a job he’s held since the late 1970s makes me shudder. If this sad, sclerotic spectacle doesn’t make you think twice about term limits, nothing will.


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Speak for yourself. We Conservatives have loooong recognized how Washington ruins even the best politician, which is why we support Term Limits.

DannoJyd on April 19, 2012 at 6:53 AM

On some level it is a recognition of failure to sell conservatism and limited government over the “gimme” mentality, but at some point you have to choose a less terrible option from a list of bad options. Isn’t that what this campaign is about? I hate to admit defeat, but I support term limits. Power corrupts and Washington DC corrupts absolutely.

swinia sutki on April 19, 2012 at 7:39 AM

I’m involved in the Mourdock campaign. He’s popular here in Indiana and he’s really pretty “middle of the road”. However, any politician anymore that actually want’s to balance a budget, spend less than they take in, expect someone to have an ID to vote and maybe keep marriage between a man and women rather than a farm animal is considered extreme today by rags such as the Indy gannet star.

In the end lugar will win because of crossover votes. Lugar is considered almost an automatic for most of the democratic power grab measures and they know they can’t win a senate seat outright.

The poormouthing of Daniels falls in the idiot catagory. it’s a reflection of morons who have no independent thought process whatsover. He’s implemented all of the things that Walker did and he did it without majorities in the legislature. We have one of the strongest fiscal records in the country and we have some of the lowest taxes in the country for a state without a treasure trove of resources such as oil or Natural gas. He’s cut back on the state government and improved nasty bureacratic depts such as the BMV 1000%. He’s an extremely effective fiscal governor. Maybe the best overall in the country.

To get hung up on his statement on social issues misses the issue that unless your house is in fiscal order you will fail as a state or country. Mike Pence will be able to adress those issues because the state is in such good shape financially.

acyl72 on April 19, 2012 at 8:02 AM

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) will roll out two heavy-hitting surrogates in his next round of ads: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

An elite GOP battery
Mommy’s lil’Boy and the Big Loser
gonna punch above their weight–NOT!

“Let’s Roll”

On Watch on April 19, 2012 at 8:18 AM

On some level it is a recognition of failure to sell conservatism and limited government over the “gimme” mentality, but at some point you have to choose a less terrible option from a list of bad options. Isn’t that what this campaign is about? I hate to admit defeat, but I support term limits. Power corrupts and Washington DC corrupts absolutely.

swinia sutki on April 19, 2012 at 7:39 AM

Wow. It’s about “selling” now?

No. It’s all about results based on sound principles of Economics as social science. The world’s major economic problems are caused by people’s ever increasing votes to “socialist” and statist policies.

TheAlamos on April 19, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) will roll out two heavy-hitting surrogates in his next round of ads: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

And THIS is why conservatives have been trying to get rid of RINOs… because ultimately, they provide protection for crappy choices just because “they’ve been there longer” instead of allowing constituents to choose the better candidate! RINOs are all about protecting the elites… just like the Democrats do!

dominigan on April 19, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I know this thread is already dead, but I just wanted to throw in my 2 cents.

I’ve been actively campaigning for Mourdock for several months now. It’ll be close between him and Lugar, but he can definitely win and he’d be a definite improvement over Lugar.

Also, there’s no way Indiana elects Donnelly in the fall. Indiana will be a clean sweep for Republicans – president, governor, senator, and probably 7/8 of the 9 congressional districts. Lugar would win 65-70% of the vote, but Mourdock will win ~55% of the vote in the general as well.

This isn’t a Christine O’Donell situation; it’s a Mike Lee one.

dkidic on April 19, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Lugar has forgoten where he came from a long, long time ago. He was too cozy with the Clinton Administration, and his behvior towards Obama has been cringe-inducing.

As to the out of state money – there are a lot of ex-pat Hoosiers who remember Mayor Lugar’s first run at Birch Bayh and his victory over Vance Hartke. That wasn’t the same Lugar that holds office now mostly by inertia. I’ve been living in Texas over 20 years, but it doesn’t mean I quit paying attention to politics in my home sate or that I wouldn’t like to see a good replacement come along.

Parabellum on April 19, 2012 at 12:48 PM

If this sad, sclerotic spectacle doesn’t make you think twice about term limits, nothing will.

If Washington won’t give me term limits, I will implement them by the only means available to me. I will be voting for Mourdock on May 8th.

Carnac on April 19, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Lugar is the epitome of a RINO. Having the leading RINO, McCain, come in and support him should easily elect Mourdock. My opinion of Mitch Daniels will definitely change for the worst if he showa he is nothing, but a RINO too.

volsense on April 19, 2012 at 2:25 PM

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