CBS/NYT poll shows dead heat between Obama, Romney at 46%

posted at 8:41 am on April 18, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So much for that eight-point lead in the secretly-weighted CNN poll, eh?  CBS gives us a sneak peek at their first general-election poll of the season, in partnership with the New York Times, and finds a dead heat in the mid-40s:

Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters, a CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found, putting the former Massachusetts governor in a dead heat with the president for the White House.

Mr. Obama and Romney each received support from 46 percent of registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. In March, a CBS News/New York Times survey found that Mr. Obama held a slight advantage over Romney of 47 percent to 44 percent.

Normally, I’d take a poll from a media outlet and thoroughly vet the internals before posting an analysis.  CBS didn’t provide the internals of their new poll, however, so we’ll have to make do with their review of the data.  The topline results match what most other pollsters are finding, within the margin of error.  In fact, it matches what CNN found in their poll of general-population adults — at least before they turned a 48/47 result for Obama into a 53/41 without any explanation whatsoever.

The key here is that Obama is only drawing 46% as the incumbent and the unchallenged Democratic contender in the race.  Romney only gets to 46% too, but as the internals show, there is still plenty of upside from the end of the primary fight:

Following the end of Santorum’s bid for the presidency, Republican primary voters have rallied behind Romney, with 54 percent saying they want him to lead Republicans into the fall campaign season. That’s a significant difference from March, when only 30 percent wanted him to be the nominee.

Gingrich was preferred among 20 percent of Republican primary voters; Paul received support from 12 percent. Nine percent picked “someone else.” When asked if Santorum should have suspended his campaign, 63 percent of those polled said yes; 30 percent said no.

Still, many Republicans expressed lukewarm feelings toward Romney, with 40 percent of primary voters having reservations about him compared with 33 percent saying they supported him “enthusiastically.” In January, the last time a CBS News/New York Times survey asked primary voters about Romney, 28 percent said they supported him enthusiastically and 38 percent had reservations.

We’re at 46/46 without having hit a real “honeymoon” stage for Romney after the practical end of the Republican fight.  That’s bad news for Team Obama, especially while facing a slowing economy and rising gas prices, and having nothing to offer but Buffett Rules and nostalgia.

We do have the internals for the Reuters/Ipsos poll from yesterday, and they’re pretty much nonsense.  The poll shows Obama up four over Romney, 47/43, but that’s with a stated D/R/I of 47/38/15.  That’s only predictive if one believes that Democrats will gain eight points over their 2008 turnout, and have two points more of a lead over Republicans than that election provided, according to CNN’s exit polls.  Without counting the leaners, the D/R/I is still an odd 29/22/49.

In either case, having a lead within the MoE on a skew of this proportion should also have the White House worried.  But there is one key indicator that looks even worse for Obama, which is his approval ratings.  They peg Obama approval at 49/49, which is attributable largely to the sample skew, and is hardly impressive.  But his approval among independents is a disastrous 37/57, down from 42/54 in March and 45/44 in January.  He’s crashing and burning in the middle, where Obama won the 2008 election.


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Another glorious day on HA….good morning all…

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:42 AM

The two hottest commodities in November will be popcorn and Tums.

Limerick on April 18, 2012 at 8:45 AM

and having nothing to offer but Buffett Rules and nostalgia.

Ahh….Obama nostalgia…good times…good times…

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:45 AM

CBS/NY Times poll…Oh!…Great combination there!

KOOLAID2 on April 18, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Now that we know that Zero ate dog meat as a kid…his poll numbers among dog owners will be problematic…

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:48 AM

I administered my own poll….and it showed my five day old ham sandwich that had been sitting in the sun beating Obama by 10 points.

search4truth on April 18, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Ugh.

(Looking in to my crystal ball……) I see ROMNEY leading big after something in Tampa and OBAMA big after something in Charlotte…….I suggest CALM…….

Marcus on April 18, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Obama will take this. National polls mean nothing – state by state polls in our EC system are what matter. He leads Romney in every swing state.

Obama ’12

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

…while facing a slowing economy and rising gas prices, and having nothing to offer but Buffett Rules and nostalgia.

And Romney’s dog. Don’t forget that. //

BacaDog on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Another glorious day on HA….good morning all…

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Nothing like a hot cup of Jo and a favorable election Poll in the morning.

WisRich on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

That’s bad news for Team Obama, especially while facing a slowing economy and rising gas prices, and having nothing to offer but Buffett Rules and nostalgia.

You forget the war on dogs.

Seriously, I think there is a push to remind voters about how good they felt supporting Obama back in 2008 but I also think why we see Obama interjecting him into a bunch of issues that really have no national significance or no need for Presidential commentary (e.g. Sandra Fluke and Trayvon Martin) is to distract the public from a slowing economy and rising gas prices. The intent is clearly to run out the clock without allowing the public to do the vetting of Obama that should have happened back in 2008. It isn’t going work.

Happy Nomad on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

The 4th bestest President ever…
against…..
An Etch-A-Sketch……
Dead heat…..

:)

Electrongod on April 18, 2012 at 8:51 AM

The two hottest commodities in November will be popcorn and Tums.

Limerick on April 18, 2012 at 8:45 AM

What no hotdogs?

NYT/CBS poll without a sample means they probably sampled over 50% dems to get the result they wanted. The Reuters poll sampled 47% dems? A startling admission all in itself. They are really in a panic.

dogsoldier on April 18, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Still have the Summer of Love Discontent to deal with, PBHO, good luck with those vacation gas prices. See you in November.

Bishop on April 18, 2012 at 8:52 AM

But his approval among independents is a disastrous 37/57,

A glorious day indeed.

lynncgb on April 18, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Nothing like a hot cup of Jo and a favorable election Poll in the morning.

WisRich on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

you Betcha…

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Obama ’12

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Obama ’08

Good times.

Electrongod on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 AM

“inthemiddle” on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

In the middle of what? A mental breakdown?

A Balrog of Morgoth on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 AM

So much for that eight-point lead in the secretly-weighted CNN poll, eh?

That lead melted away faster than a pad of butter over a roasted dog at an Obama family reunion.

Weight of Glory on April 18, 2012 at 8:53 AM

There should be a contest between now and the final polls in late October/early November (which have to be somewhat accurate, to protect the pollster’s credibility) to identify and award some sort of ‘prize’ to the big media polling outfit that comes up with the most skewered D-to-R polling sample and tries to show that as an accurate reflection of where the electorate is.

As of now, I think +11 is the standard the other polls are shooting for, though CNN deserves a special “Lifetime Achievement Award” or sorts for their recent poll, which failed to full reveal the sample numbers but did somehow magically turn a +1 raw sample into a +12 for Obama.

jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Now that we know that Zero ate dog meat as a kid…his poll numbers among dog owners will be problematic…

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:48 AM

I had dog once, rear leg of dog in fact, in Thailand though we had no idea because they told us it was something different. The entire fleet ended up with the green runs for about a week, it was really something.

But PBHO was problematic with me already, and I say that as a dog owner.

Bishop on April 18, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Doggone it!

See what I did there?

Good Lt on April 18, 2012 at 8:56 AM

When the American Kennel Club finishes their mass mailings, the gap will grow.

Dog lovers take things quite personal.

Letting your dog ride on the roof rack of your station wagon is far better than eating the poor mutt.

coldwarrior on April 18, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Obama will take this. National polls mean nothing – state by state polls in our EC system are what matter. He leads Romney in every swing state.

Obama ’12

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Yeah, you just hold to the idea that all is well. The fact of the matter is that, as much as polls seven months out mean anything, an incumbent President hoping for a second term should not be in a dead heat. In public, Obama’s people may be filled with the same bluster you express but in private they have got to be in full panic mode.

Happy Nomad on April 18, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Nothing like a hot cup of JoBO and a favorable election Poll in the morning.

WisRich on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

:)

Buy Danish on April 18, 2012 at 8:57 AM

this is over by sept. those last couple months will be interesting. and dangerous. and malignant narcissist does bad things, when threatened.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 8:57 AM

PatriotRider on April 18, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Liberals everywhere are flipping out in blog comments about the dog meat thing. They are simply not used to instant and wide-ranging push-back on their own “outrageous outrage”. They have been the bullys on the playground for so long that it’s all they know. Defending Romney against this inane dog story by pointing humorously out that Obama actually ATE dog, and they have no response.

This is why I’m not tearing my beard out in panic over this election. I’m worried about property damage, but not so much about electoral votes.

Mord on April 18, 2012 at 8:57 AM

It should be obvious to everyone that pollsters lie, and people lie to pollsters. So why is anyone taking these works of fiction as fact?

meci on April 18, 2012 at 8:58 AM

They peg Obama approval at 49/49, which is attributable largely to the sample skew, and is hardly impressive. But his approval among independents is a disastrous 37/57, down from 42/54 in March and 45/44 in January. He’s crashing and burning in the middle, where Obama won the 2008 election.

Yikes! That number with independents is horrible. He can’t win the election with those kinds of ratings. Not unless the Republican base doesn’t turn out, and I know damn sure our side ain’t THAT petty and whiny.

BTW, if even CBS/NYT has them in a dead heat, Obama is screwed. That poll always skewed heavily in the Dems’ favor, so he could be in far worse shape than they’re letting on.

Doughboy on April 18, 2012 at 8:58 AM

The polls are encouraging, but we need to help them along. Don’t purchase ANYTHING you don’t need until the end of October — too late then to give Obama a boost with retail sales.

Delay purchases of durable goods, clothing, automobiles – everything if you can.

The economy is already going sideways. Don’t spend your tax refund. Bank it or pay down debt.

Let’s have the greatest holiday season of our lives knowing that this Empty Suit is on his way out.

matthew8787 on April 18, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Nothing like a hot cup of JoBO and a favorable election Poll in the morning.

WisRich on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

:)

Buy Danish on April 18, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Heh… I almost did a spit take.

WisRich on April 18, 2012 at 9:00 AM

[Obama] leads Romney in every swing state.

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

According to the polling data at RCP, the only polling outfit that has conducted a poll recently showing Obama ahead in any of the swing states is PPP. And we know how accurate/trustworthy PPP is. Not at all.

Syzygy on April 18, 2012 at 9:03 AM

There’s only 200 days to go.

Wait until BHO annoucnes he’s dumping Biden and running with the 12th Imam. Landslide in all 58 states including the Maldives, erm, Maritius, erm, Mauritania…HALP US TOTUS.

CorporatePiggy on April 18, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Ahhh…CBS/NYT doing their part for the team. This is their polling version of “well, both sides do it”.

jan3 on April 18, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Defending Romney against this inane dog story by pointing humorously out that Obama actually ATE dog, and they have no response.

I think the push back should be “Romney put his dog on top of the car? Obama is an accessory to hundreds of murders in Mexico. Is 1 dog possibly being uncomfortable worth more than hundreds of Hispanics?”

Zaggs on April 18, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Obama will take this. National polls mean nothing – state by state polls in our EC system are what matter. He leads Romney in every swing state.

Obama ’12

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Shhhh.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:06 AM

It should be obvious to everyone that pollsters lie, and people lie to pollsters. So why is anyone taking these works of fiction as fact?

meci on April 18, 2012 at 8:58 AM

well, when the internals are given. and analyzed, as they are here, with some reality sprinkled in, it does inform. these pollsters HAVE to give their data to retain any shred of professionalism. of course they do skew them now in the dem favor. but it is transparent manipulation, once thats stripped away, the truth is known. as we get closer, they will begin to report accurately, as they will need to get their numbers in line with reality which is when they will be offically “scored” [how accurate they are] via a vis all other pollsters. and they do that for a very old reason: money. the more accurate (at the end) they are, the more business they can generate going fwd. they are capitalists, even if very bad ones who have sold out to socialists. and in that sense, the worst most sickening of capitalists.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:06 AM

According to the polling data at RCP, the only polling outfit that has conducted a poll recently showing Obama ahead in any of the swing states is PPP. And we know how accurate/trustworthy PPP is. Not at all.

Syzygy

Wasn’t that the crap “well we’re going to take different numbers of people from all these states and combine them” poll?

Zaggs on April 18, 2012 at 9:07 AM

According to the polling data at RCP, the only polling outfit that has conducted a poll recently showing Obama ahead in any of the swing states is PPP. And we know how accurate/trustworthy PPP is. Not at all.

Syzygy on April 18, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Rule #1 of HotAir: Any poll that says something I don’t like must be a biased poll.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Obama will take this. National polls mean nothing – state by state polls in our EC system are what matter. He leads Romney in every swing state.

Obama ’12

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM
Shhhh.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:06 AM

hey keep that under wraps man. in those polls its only D+11. good grief if they were eighted properly we’d know NOW how bad the EVs are going to be. obama, 170, tops. shhhh.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:08 AM

A new Gallup poll shows that President Obama has opened up his largest lead over Mitt Romney to date, both nationally and among voters in a dozen key November battlegrounds.

Obama’s 51% to 42% lead among registered voters in 12 “swing states” is his first over Romney in the USA Today/Gallup poll. Romney led in those states 48% to 46% in the previous survey in mid-February.

Oh never mind Gallup is run by Democrats. Right? LOL

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Rule #1 of HotAir: Any poll that says something I don’t like must be a biased poll.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:07 AM

only if you dont actually LOOK at the numbers man. ya know facts and stuff. feeling are for dems. numbers and reality are for us, right?

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

If we as a nation, wish to change course, we can’t simply rely on our votes to make a difference. We need to push harder than that. We need to influence and persuade in ways we’ve never had to before. Each of us need to speak with fact and calm to those in our lives who have chosen not to be informed. We need to explain with thoughtful consideration why this country cannot afford to keep this president for another four years. It cannot be about “getting into their faces”. That kind of discussion is a throw-away and we need to appeal to whatever common sense a person may have within them.

Our work is far from over. We have to help the process of removing this president until the votes are counted and we are assured the Barack Obama is no longer president.

pjean on April 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

There’s only 200 days to go.

Wait until BHO annoucnes he’s dumping Biden and running with the 12th Imam. Landslide in all 58 states including the Maldives, erm, Maritius, erm, Mauritania…HALP US TOTUS.

CorporatePiggy on April 18, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I got another day count for ya. 1085. That is how long ago the U.S. Senate did their Constitutional duty and passed a budget. I bring this up because along with getting rid of Obama, we need to stamp out the Democrats running for reelection in the Senate and maintain majority in the House to give a President Romney the chance to undo America’s experimentation with European socialism.

And, BTW, if the polling remains as bad for Obama as it is now, I have no doubt that there will be some stunt like dumping Biden to change the death spiral of this administration.

Happy Nomad on April 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Rule #1 of HotAir: Any poll that says something I don’t like must be a biased poll.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Obama was +5 on McCain in the final 2008 election numbers. Why would any poll in 2012 use anything more than a +5 D-to-R sample as its sample basis?

jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Rule #1 of HotAir: Any poll that says something I don’t like must be a biased poll.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Why hide the sample in one and admit to sampling 47% libs in the other? Are you really a reincarnation of L4L?

dogsoldier on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Eh, Romney’s numbers are artificially supported by those lazy, pathetic, good for nothing stay-at-home parents who sit on their fat asses all day eating ding dongs.

If they had real jobs such as being a patient-dumping executive at a hospital, then they might be taken seriously.

Bishop on April 18, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Oh never mind Gallup is run by Democrats. Right? LOL

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:08 AM

realx ed. he took 53% of PV in 08. his approval hasnt been above 50 in 2 years. he has totally lost the middle. so he gets 90% of dems (32%), less than 40 of indys and 5 of whateevr those pple are that arent dems or indys and would vote oabam. do the math. he’s toast. he has lost at least 10 points from 08. the math shows this. if he gets 44% PV he’ll be lucky. relax.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:12 AM

The two hottest commodities in November will be popcorn and Tums.

Limerick on April 18, 2012 at 8:45 AM

and dark chocolate … popcorn and dark chocolate … nectar of the gods ….

conservative tarheel on April 18, 2012 at 9:12 AM

CBS didn’t provide the internals of their new poll, however, so we’ll have to make do with their review of the data.

This might turn into the Reagan election afterall.

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM
dogsoldier on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM
jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Rule #2 of HotAir, there’s always an excuse why your guy is polling badly

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

and dark chocolate … popcorn and dark chocolate … nectar of the gods ….

conservative tarheel on April 18, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Throw some peanuts and m&m’s in that popcorn bowl. Good stuff.

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:15 AM

NYT/CBS internal data being released this evening?

mjbrooks3 on April 18, 2012 at 9:16 AM

This poll result only required an 83% democrat sample. Go barry!

chicken thief on April 18, 2012 at 9:16 AM

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM
dogsoldier on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM
jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Rule #2 of HotAir, there’s always an excuse why your guy is polling badly

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

actually ed gallup in head to head has had romney up on obama in the dailys. in april. historically thats almost unprecedented. thats not BADLY dude. these are GOOD numbers at this stage. amazingly good for a challenger. they are terrible histoically for an incumbant. we’re not making excuses. we’re happy with the actual numbers. its the dems that are scared. terrified. they’ll get more terrified later in the summer. oh boy are we gonna have fun then, when they throw obama under the bus. realx, we’re fine.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:17 AM

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:09 AM
dogsoldier on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM
jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Rule #2 of HotAir, there’s always an excuse why your guy is polling badly

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Aw geez, not again.(With Archie Bunker’s way of sayin it)

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Notice they refer to all GOP candidates by only their last name but refer to Obama as President or Mr. Obama?

And that polls seem to be 80% of the content here at HotGas lately?

Spliff Menendez on April 18, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Aw geez, not again.(With Archie Bunker’s way of sayin it)

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Relax, its only day number three of the the breakdown process.

By November he will be a quivering bowl of Jello and the whole thing will be documented here. To be studied for generations.

cozmo on April 18, 2012 at 9:25 AM

The last polls I’ve seen from Ohio, Virginia and Florida showed Obama up by a big margin. Have any recent polls in those states showed Romney ahead? He seems to be very weak in those three battlegrounds.

gumbyandpokey on April 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

And that polls seem to be 80% of the content here at HotGas lately?

Spliff Menendez on April 18, 2012 at 9:21 AM

whoa, we talk zomies at least 25%. we’re giving 105% here!

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

cozmo on April 18, 2012 at 9:25 AM

shhh. there are ways to hasten that…why wait.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Rule #2 of HotAir, there’s always an excuse why your guy is polling badly

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Kind of a non-answer to the question, bub. If Obama beat McCain by five points in 2008, and coming off the 2010 midterm results, why would a polling organization base it’s results on any sample larger that +5 Democrat?

I’m not even saying do a sample with a Republican majority, but why do polls samples of +9 Democrat, like the Reuters poll, or as much as +11 Democrat, as with an earlier CBS/New York Times poll. Increasing the D share of the sample supposes that the support nationally for the Democrats has gone up since 2008. Good luck if you want to argue that one.

jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:30 AM

and wait til they switch off RVs to LVs. he loses another 4 points. oof. wonder how long they’ll wait.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM

They are going to fuzz the numbers however they have to in order to show Barry winning or it being very close.

All to set up the “ELECTION WAS STOLEN!!!” meme to stoke the left wing riots in the streets when he loses 40 states…

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

The last polls I’ve seen from Ohio, Virginia and Florida showed Obama up by a big margin. Have any recent polls in those states showed Romney ahead? He seems to be very weak in those three battlegrounds.

gumbyandpokey on April 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I’d be very curious to see who conducted these polls and what samples they used. Those three states have gone heavily for the GOP in 2009 and 2010 elections and it’s not exactly like things have improved in the country all that much since then.

Doughboy on April 18, 2012 at 9:37 AM

All to set up the “ELECTION WAS STOLEN!!!” meme to stoke the left wing riots in the streets when he loses 40 states…

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

What do you wanna’ bet that the only riots that happen will be in those 10 17 other states that 0bama wins. There are plenty of quietly angry armed folks in the other 40.

cozmo on April 18, 2012 at 9:40 AM

All to set up the “ELECTION WAS STOLEN!!!” meme to stoke the left wing riots in the streets when he loses 40 states…

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 9:36 AM

buy more ammo …. and food …. and first aid items ….

BTW I have seen ZERO signage in NENC and not much in Tidewater VA ….

conservative tarheel on April 18, 2012 at 9:41 AM

The last polls I’ve seen from Ohio, Virginia and Florida showed Obama up by a big margin. Have any recent polls in those states showed Romney ahead? He seems to be very weak in those three battlegrounds.

gumbyandpokey on April 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Roanoke College ran a poll on April 10 showing Romney with a 6pt lead over Obama.

Haven’t seen anything on OH or FL that’s recent. I’m looking forward to the national Catholic rally that I believe is scheduled to take place in July to push for Religious Freedom by voting “the right way” in November. That could have a considerable impact on voters in swing states with high numbers of Catholic voters–in places like FL, OH, PA and WI.

writeblock on April 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

The really good thing about this poll.

cbs/NYtimes would normally make this a positive Obama poll if possible.

either the internals are so bad there was no way to spin this
or they are ready to throw Obama under the bus.

gerrym51 on April 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

and wait til they switch off RVs to LVs. he loses another 4 points. oof. wonder how long they’ll wait.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Right before Halloween. With the election almost a full week into November this year, the pollsters and the big media outlets paying the freight don’t have to be honest with their samples until the final days of October if they don’t want to be.

You can’t run a +11 Democrat sample in your poll or use RVs instead of LVs on, say, Nov. 4, because you’re going to be a laughingstock on Nov. 7 when the final figures and your final numbers are on two different planets. That doesn’t mean the last pre-election polls can’t still nudge the numbers a little towards Obama, but the polling outfits will want to get their final figures within the two-to-four point (depending on the size of the sample) margin of error.

jon1979 on April 18, 2012 at 9:47 AM

The last polls I’ve seen from Ohio, Virginia and Florida showed Obama up by a big margin. Have any recent polls in those states showed Romney ahead? He seems to be very weak in those three battlegrounds.

gumbyandpokey on April 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The last one here in Virginia was before Santorum dropped out. In short, it showed Obama up but that was because the GOP vote was split. In other words, meaningless now that Romney is the presumptive nominee.

Happy Nomad on April 18, 2012 at 9:49 AM

heartache. angryed, ddrintn, madcon hardest hit….

Buy Danish on April 18, 2012 at 9:49 AM

The two hottest commodities in November will be popcorn and Tums.

Limerick on April 18, 2012 at 8:45 AM

You forgot moving boxes.

Happy Nomad on April 18, 2012 at 9:51 AM

He’s crashing and burning in the middle, where Obama won the 2008 election.

watch out… the secret service is gonna come talk to you… ask ted nugent….

Dr. Demento on April 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Relax, its only day number three of the the breakdown process.

By November he will be a quivering bowl of Jello and the whole thing will be documented here. To be studied for generations.

cozmo on April 18, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Obooboo eats quivering jello too.

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:55 AM

What do you wanna’ bet that the only riots that happen will be in those 10 17 other states that 0bama wins. There are plenty of quietly angry armed folks in the other 40.

cozmo on April 18, 2012 at 9:40 AM

A box of .30-06 a day keeps the New Black Panthers away.

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Obooboo eats quivering jello too.

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Dog flavored?

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 9:57 AM

You know it has to be really bad for Obama if NYT/CBS is showing a dead heat, that means Romney is winning and winning hard

Conservative4ev on April 18, 2012 at 9:57 AM

You all need to rememeber in the days leading up to the 1980 election, polls showed Carter edging out Reagan. This was because liberal polssters manipulated their polls to show a desired result. Come election day, Reagan creamed Carter. It was a landslide victory for Reagan and not even remotely close.
You should expect that as we move closes to November 2012, the polsters yet again will manipulate their polls to show Obama out in front. Hopefully this will have an opposite effect and motivate strong opposition to show up and vote him out of office.

paulsur on April 18, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Rasmussen

In a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 43%.

Conservative4ev on April 18, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Following the end of Santorum’s bid for the presidency, Republican primary voters have rallied behind Romney, with 54 percent saying they want him to lead Republicans into the fall campaign season

Bless those patriotic Republican primary voters. Don’t let them down, team Romney.

rhombus on April 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Romney will lose the swing states no matter how much Bull Schmidt the Etch-a-sketch propaganda machine tries to spew.

How about another endorsement, LOL

Tokyo Rove is that you.

Jayrae on April 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

watch out… the secret service is gonna come talk to you… ask ted nugent….

Dr. Demento on April 18, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Uh, nugent’s not a prostitute, is he?

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

You can’t run a +11 Democrat sample in your poll or use RVs instead of LVs on, say, Nov. 4, because you’re going to be a laughingstock on Nov. 7 when the final figures and your final numbers are on two different planets. That doesn’t mean the last pre-election polls can’t still nudge the numbers a little towards Obama, but the polling outfits will want to get their final figures within the two-to-four point (depending on the size of the sample) margin of error.

QFT.

At some point, the credibility of a polling organization becomes more important than whatever agenda the pollster or the sponsoring organization wants to drive. The interesting thing will be to see who wants to switch first, and be the one to be able to say “XYZ Surveys was the first organization to notice the mass movement towards Romney in the last weeks of the campaign”.

And to angryed, I will distrust any poll with unrealistic D/R/I (including those that favor my way of thinking). 2008 was the high water mark of all high water marks for the modern Democratic Party. They had +7. That isn’t happening again anytime soon. A poll with that much or more is nonsense. Close to that is probably nonsense, given Obama’s performance in office and the 2010 results,but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and even accept polls at D+7. They still don’t look good for the One.

FuzzyLogic on April 18, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Uh, nugent’s not a prostitute, is he?

msupertas on April 18, 2012 at 9:59 AM

yea, why doesn’t the secret service scandal, gsa scandal, new black panther voter intimidation scandal, and fast and furious stick to the one….

if owe’bama had a son, he’d talk like bill maher and fornicate like the secret service….

Dr. Demento on April 18, 2012 at 10:05 AM

The really good thing about this poll.

cbs/NYtimes would normally make this a positive Obama poll if possible.

either the internals are so bad there was no way to spin this
or they are ready to throw Obama under the bus.

gerrym51 on April 18, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Ehhhh, let’s not get carried away there.

Bitter Clinger on April 18, 2012 at 10:07 AM

If Barack thinks he’s in a cakewalk he’s barking up the wrong tree.

SouthernGent on April 18, 2012 at 10:20 AM

The last polls I’ve seen from Ohio, Virginia and Florida showed Obama up by a big margin. Have any recent polls in those states showed Romney ahead? He seems to be very weakin those three battlegrounds.

gumbyandpokey on April 18, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The most recent polls according to realclearpolitics show:

Romney +5 in VA (Roanoke College poll)
Obama +5 on FL (PPP poll)
Romney +2 in NC (Rasmussen poll)
Obama +8 in OH (Rasmussen poll)
Obama +4 in MI (EPIC-MRA poll)
Romney +9 in MO (Rasmussen poll)
Obama +13 in CO (PPP poll)
Obama +8 in NV (PPP poll)
Romney +11 in AZ (Rasmussen poll)

So it’s not all roses for Romney or Obama yet in the battleground states. And there is still an eternity until the election.

Spliff Menendez on April 18, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The two hottest commodities in November will be popcorn and Tums.

Limerick on April 18, 2012 at 8:45 AM

and dark chocolate … popcorn and dark chocolate … nectar of the gods ….

conservative tarheel on April 18, 2012 at 9:12 AM

And pupcorn… don’t forget pupcorn…

de rigueur on April 18, 2012 at 10:30 AM

A box of .30-06 a day keeps the New Black Panthers away.

wildcat72 on April 18, 2012 at 9:55 AM

gas … styrofoam …. metal container … napalm

put it at the end of the driveway … when the mob comes ..
hit it with a tracer round or a mag flare ….

cheaper then 30.06 rounds ….

so is 12 ga buckshot and can take more then one out at a time ….

06 is good for distance ….

conservative tarheel on April 18, 2012 at 10:32 AM

You know it’s bad when even a CBS/NYT’s crooked poll can’t put Obama over the top.

NeoKong on April 18, 2012 at 10:40 AM

“INCOMING!!!” – angryed’s Depends

Chuck Schick on April 18, 2012 at 10:43 AM

YES!!!

bobsacramento on April 18, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I’m so smart, I painted an entire room by myself and only have this corner to finsh.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:13 AM

budfox on April 18, 2012 at 10:45 AM

If you’re quiet you can hear the gnashing of teeth over at CBS/NYT.
Things are bad when they can’t even start their lying as early as April. A shame, Obama/Axelrod may not be able to destroy America after all.

arand on April 18, 2012 at 10:50 AM

“Romney +5 in VA (Roanoke College poll)
Obama +5 on FL (PPP poll)
Romney +2 in NC (Rasmussen poll)
Obama +8 in OH (Rasmussen poll)
Obama +4 in MI (EPIC-MRA poll)
Romney +9 in MO (Rasmussen poll)
Obama +13 in CO (PPP poll)
Obama +8 in NV (PPP poll)
Romney +11 in AZ (Rasmussen poll)”

Romney is toast if he’s that weak in the swing states.

gumbyandpokey on April 18, 2012 at 10:57 AM

We do have the internals for the Reuters/Ipsos poll from yesterday, and they’re pretty much nonsense. The poll shows Obama up four over Romney, 47/43, but that’s with a stated D/R/I of 47/38/15. That’s only predictive if one believes that Democrats will gain eight points over their 2008 turnout, and have two points more of a lead over Republicans than that election provided, according to CNN’s exit polls. Without counting the leaners, the D/R/I is still an odd 29/22/49.

Obama’s vote in this poll = Democrats + Democrat-leaners, while Romney’s vote is 5 points MORE than Republicans + Republican leaners. If the general electorate is near-parity between Democrats and Republicans, Romney’s 5-point advantage, plus Obama’s lousy ratings among Independents will probably win for him.

Steve Z on April 18, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Ehhhh, let’s not get carried away there.

Bitter Clinger on April 18, 2012 at 10:07 AM

the professional dems who want to keep their jobs, like they could earn a living in the realworld, and that want to save the party, will cling to their jobs. to do it they need to save themsevles and their “ideology”. to do that by sept/oct they will HAVE to throw BHO under the bus. he will have the be “carter-ized”. theres something bigger than obama to them: their own a$$es. and their ideology. wait.

t8stlikchkn on April 18, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Obama will take this. National polls mean nothing – state by state polls in our EC system are what matter. He leads Romney in every swing state.

Obama ’12

inthemiddle on April 18, 2012 at 8:50 AM
Shhhh.

angryed on April 18, 2012 at 9:06 AM

How about you two hooking up. You can have a date night and watch Obamas fluff video about himself. Maybe head over to his campaign headquarters and hang out with like minded obamabots like yourselves.
Anything to get you trolls away from the adults here.

buckeyerich on April 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Yes, CNN is looking very silly right now.

WannabeAnglican on April 18, 2012 at 11:59 AM

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