Gallup daily tracking poll: Romney 48, Obama 43

posted at 4:51 pm on April 17, 2012 by Tina Korbe

Yesterday, the Gallup daily tracking poll showed Mitt Romney with a smidgen of a lead over Barack Obama — and a CNN poll showed Barack Obama with a sizable lead over Mitt Romney. Gallup has more good news for Romney, though. The daily tracker shows Romney’s support up by one and Obama’s support down by two, widening Romney’s lead from a mere two points to a full five.

As Allah pointed out in his comprehensive coverage of yesterday’s two conflicting polls, though, it’s a toss-up as to whether we should cover polls closely at all at this point. The election is a full six months away and so much is bound to change between now and then. Yet, it can’t be entirely insignificant that Romney has led the incumbent two days in a row, according to Gallup.

Still, relevant qualifications apply: It’ll all come down to the relatively unpredictable independent vote, much of the Romney vote is driven primarily by anti-Obama sentiment and Obama still has a significant edge in likability.

That last is, I think, the most problematic for Romney. I’m with AP on this one: While “experts” downplay its importance, the old political wisdom is still probably accurate: Voters vote for the guy with whom they’d like to share a beer. If anything, the fact that Romney leads Obama now — with the impossible-to-dislike Ann Romney so much in the news lately — suggests that sheer popular appeal really does matter. Romney might not have the edge on Obama on likability, but his lack of “this guy could be my beer buddy” appeal has been offset somewhat lately by his suddenly prominent “this guy really loves his wife” appeal, which, while different, is still an arbitrary (to the job of president) kind of appeal.

Eventually, though, it will come down to Romney versus Obama. Not even his VP selection will win it for Romney. Romney’s best bet in the face of Obama’s seemingly serenely inalterable likability ratings is to home in on Obama’s incompetence. The one mistake Romney must not make — the one mistake all of us who vehemently dislike Obama must not make — is to try to get voters to not like Obama. He won’t succeed in that effort. Instead, he must allow that Obama is a likable guy — but that doesn’t make him a good president. WSJ opinion writer William McGurn develops this idea fully:

Now, the president’s likability doesn’t mean Mr. Romney shouldn’t go on the offensive. It does mean he ought to attack hardest where Mr. Obama is at his weakest: his failed policies. For all the carping about Mr. Romney, this part he gets. We can see it reflected in both his embrace of the opportunity-oriented Republicanism of Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan—and his repeated refrain that Mr. Obama is simply “in over his head.”

Mr. Romney is hardly the first Republican presidential aspirant to take that tack against a Democratic incumbent. In 1980, Ronald Reagan zeroed in on Jimmy Carter’s competence. Plenty of Americans thought President Carter was a good and decent man too—but by election day Mr. Reagan had persuaded them that his rival just wasn’t up to the job.

The day after that election, Mr. Reagan’s pollster, Richard Wirthlin, explained the campaign this way: “We saw the opportunity for a role reversal—that is, by the end of the campaign, I think we came very close to having people look upon Ronald Reagan as more presidential than Jimmy Carter.”

If Romney can combine a sense of humor with his already established gravitas, he might just be able to replicate Reagan’s path to victory.


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Obama is trolling the “gasoline price manipulation” meme today…anything but his failed record, or what he’ll do, aside from destroying the land.

Schadenfreude on April 17, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Schaden is anyone listening to him anylonger? the man spins so hard his head pops like a top

Conservative4ev on April 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Of course Ben Smith is retweeting Axe’s nonsense. The guy is so in the tank.

rubberneck on April 17, 2012 at 5:47 PM

The election will be a referendum on Obama. There is still time for the economy to pick up. The June, July, August and September jobs reports will set the tone of the campaign. If things dramatically improve (300,000 jobs/month created) Obama will win. If the jobs numbers improve modestly it will be close. If the jobs numbers don’t improve, Obama will lose.

Ted Torgerson on April 17, 2012 at 5:35 PM

..your assertions are fairly self-evident. However, there is this creeping suspicion that the economy will NOT be back, that the gas prices and other factors are pushing us back into decline again.

Remember, there’s a ton of folks who have left the workforce completely — who by Obama’s torturing of BLS numbers — don’t count in the unemployment figures. The present 8.2% is arrived at largely because the fool’s policies have driven them out. Were the economy to improve, then the rate might actually go UP.

Look at one of the bell weathers to be the Q1 GDP figures that come out in 27 April.

The War Planner on April 17, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 5:32 PM

.
We have something to be happy about.
Don’t worry.
Be happy.

FlaMurph on April 17, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Schaden is anyone listening to him anylonger? the man spins so hard his head pops like a top

Conservative4ev on April 17, 2012 at 5:46 PM

..Hmmmmmmmmmm..

The War Planner on April 17, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Early insignificant poll is early and insignificant.

8thAirForce on April 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Early insignificant poll is early and insignificant.

8thAirForce on April 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

..but these are daily tracking polls ad a run of these could indicate something is afoot.

The War Planner on April 17, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Obama is trolling the “gasoline price manipulation” meme today…anything but his failed record, or what he’ll do, aside from destroying the land.

Schadenfreude on April 17, 2012 at 5:02 PM

How do speculators “drive up the price of oil” when they are reacting to oil supplies? If Obowma knew anything about the market, he would allow permits to drill oil wells today and the price would drop as it did for GW Bush.

He never will because ideology trumps the economy in his pea brain.

dthorny on April 17, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Early insignificant poll is early and insignificant.

8thAirForce on April 17, 2012 at 5:53 PM

An incumbant president losing ground to the GOP presumptive nominee? And we’re supposed to be in a recovery.

I’m not sure how you could ever call this insignificant.

Fish on April 17, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Keep going. Keep going.

gophergirl on April 17, 2012 at 6:08 PM

The polls disagree. :)

Go RBNY on April 17, 2012 at 5:45 PM

They sure do

polls-2 – the body of students who read for or obtain a degree without honors.

Schadenfreude on April 17, 2012 at 6:14 PM

If Romney can combine a sense of humor with his already established gravitas, he might just be able to replicate Reagan’s path to victory.

It took a lot of meaningless verbiage to finally get down to a valid point.

cicerone on April 17, 2012 at 6:16 PM

We have something to be happy about.
Don’t worry.
Be happy.

FlaMurph on April 17, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Pray tell, what might that be ? And who is the we you speak of? Are you more than one person?

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Romney will lead in some CNN polls.

joana on April 17, 2012 at 5:07 PM

No he won’t.

Del Dolemonte on April 17, 2012 at 6:20 PM

CNN’s poll was ridiculous from the start. The demographics are completely skewed.

MrX on April 17, 2012 at 6:25 PM

CBS is helping Romney’s likability today. They ran a story about the “Real Mitt Romney” in which he and his sun volunteered to help someone remove a dead stump in the guy’s yard after it had burned in the Southern California wildfires in 2007.

Gail C. on April 17, 2012 at 6:27 PM

the one mistake all of us who vehemently dislike Obama must not make — is to try to get voters to not like Obama. He won’t succeed in that effort. Instead, he must allow that Obama is a likable guy — but that doesn’t make him a good president

you mean the exact same strategy Romney has been using for six months now- and the same strategy that all the ABR trolls, Rush, Levin and Beck condemn?!

AirForceCane on April 17, 2012 at 6:27 PM

If I’d be Mitt, I’d fire you adherents. You are the worst marketeers in the world.

Schadenfreude on April 17, 2012 at 5:00 PM

You keep saying that…I do not think you know what it means.

Dude, we’re just commenters on a blog. Get a griiiip!

thebrokenrattle on April 17, 2012 at 6:28 PM

The one mistake Romney must not make — the one mistake all of us who vehemently dislike Obama must not make — is to try to get voters to not like Obama. He won’t succeed in that effort.

Sure, Axlerod.

VorDaj on April 17, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Barry is not getting traction on policies/gimmicks, so they’re going to wait for Mitt, or someone associated, to screw up…

…or we’re going to get another “big surprise”, ala, economic meltdown.

I’d rather have someone from Romney’s camp step in it, because that’s chum for the media, and lives won’t be destroyed in the process.

Barry will get some traction once he starts on the Bain stuff. No way around that.

The one mistake Romney must not make — the one mistake all of us who vehemently dislike Obama must not make — is to try to get voters to not like Obama. He won’t succeed in that effort. Instead, he must allow that Obama is a likable guy — but that doesn’t make him a good president.

Well, that’s what some of us at Hot Gas have been explaining for a few months now. Excuse us for not being WSJ writers.

Simple fact with Barry is he’s likable in a “he’s a neighbor/co-worker” kind of way; professionals, both he and Mrs are mindful of their girls. Think of Biden’s “clean” definition. W had the same trait. Paul Ryan and Christie have the same vibe.

Barry, and W, were able to parlay that by making it feel like they were being made Project Leader or in charge of the community association. So once they crossed the line into President decisions – Iraq, Obamacare – people still liked them personally, but lost trust.

Romney isn’t your boss; he’s the boss of bosses. What he has to do, is show the type of character he’s made of, guides his decisions, and Barry’s only way to pop that is via Bain. So Mitt has to counter with who he is, and ironically, his Mormonism forces him to be a really good citizen.

IMO, that’s why Axelrod doesn’t want to make Mormonism an issue on any level. It’s going to draw personal comparisons and make people think, “yeah, I don’t get some of his beliefs, but all they’ve done is make him live like a Boy Scout. And look where it’s gotten his family”.

budfox on April 17, 2012 at 6:33 PM

making it look like we might take 100 House seats, and 10 or more senate seats. We had the issues…

you are absolutely wrong about this!

a WEEK before the election in October 2010 Nancy Pelosi was claiming loudly the Dems would hold the House of Representatives. The tracking polls at National Review never had even 60 seats being gained by the GOP. In almost every poll, the GOP over performed on election day..

AirForceCane on April 17, 2012 at 6:34 PM

If I hear one more word about Obama’s “likeability” the top of my head is going to come off. What, pray tell, is likeable about him???? His arrogance? His incompetence? That annoying whistling thing he does when preaching to the unwashed masses? His air of superiority? His whininess? His mom jeans? How he makes everything about him? How he blames everyone else for his failures? How he takes credit for others’ success? Are these “likeable” qualities? Are they???

natasha333 on April 17, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Final RCP AVERAGES 2010 Battle for the House
Current House: 255 Democrats | 178 Republicans | 2 Vacancies

RCP Senate · Final Senate · RCP House · Final House · RCP Governors · Final Govs

Democrats 167
Toss Ups 44
Republicans 224

AirForceCane on April 17, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Those with NPD are not likeable. Barry’s next position will be: “I suffer from NPD. I’m a victim. I have a disease. I’m not responsible for my actions”. Fraud can’t run on his record so he will run from his past.

BHO Jonestown on April 17, 2012 at 6:39 PM

I think we can win.

Towash on April 17, 2012 at 6:57 PM

this is all Dr Pepper’s fault

DHChron on April 17, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Not even his VP selection will win it for Romney.

IMO if it is West…blowout…imo.

NY Conservative on April 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Blow out? Which way? West is a rookie politician with no executive experience. I like Allen West. He’s a great American patriot. But he’s also someone who doesn’t understand the difference between what you can think and what you can say. Last week he said there were between 78 and 81 communists in the House. Not socialists but communists.

When the media is controlled by your political opponents you simply don’t have the luxury of making this kind of incendiary statement. If he were the VP running mate he would be vilified by the media and bring the nominee down with him.

Romney has the support of all prominent conservatives. He does not need a bomb thrower as a running mate. His decency and essential competence as contrasted with Obama’s thuggery and exquisite gross incompetence will be enough to comfortably carry the day among the rational.

Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 7:30 PM

If I’d be Mitt, I’d fire you adherents. You are the worst marketeers in the world.

Schadenfreude on April 17, 2012 at 5:00 PM

You carry on like you’re a member of the vast left wing conspiracy with one moronic attack after another on Mitt Romney and yet you expect those of us who are intelligent enough to support him to kiss your a$$, in order to persuade you to vote for Mitt and against the worst president in history.

If you aren’t non-moronic enough to vote for Mitt, then vote for Obama. We are sick of your adolescent whining.

Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 7:59 PM

CBS is helping Romney’s likability today. They ran a story about the “Real Mitt Romney” in which he and his sun volunteered to help someone remove a dead stump in the guy’s yard after it had burned in the Southern California wildfires in 2007.

Gail C. on April 17, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Holy crap, I knew he was rich, but he owns his own SUN?

msupertas on April 17, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Who is this we you speak of? Are they all thinned skinned?

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Who is this we you speak of? Are they all thinned skinned? Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Thin skinned my a$$. The we is all of us who understand the importance of removing Obama. You seem a little ambivalent. Are you?

Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 8:15 PM

“Obama still has a significant edge in likability.”

I simply refuse to believe this. What is there to like for anyone other than a hyper-lefist partisan?

holygoat on April 17, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Winston Wolf rule…

kjl291 on April 17, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I simply refuse to believe this. What is there to like for anyone other than a hyper-lefist partisan?

holygoat on April 17, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Free stuff.

It’s that simple.

MelonCollie on April 17, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Reason for Obama’s “likability” is white guilt, plain and simple. Here, in the age of ultra political correctness, saying you dislike a black guy is tantamount of saying you are a devil worshiper who moonlights as a pedophile.

Anyone seen the South Park episode where Stan’s dad becomes a “N****** guy”? Illustrates my point perfectly.

1984 in real life on April 17, 2012 at 8:27 PM

That’s what the Mark Levins of the world tell me is the path to victory.

Got a link to Levin actually saying this is exactly what Obama’s opponent should do?

If not, I’d also advise against Mitt saying things like, “Obamacare isn’t worth getting angry about.”

Right Mover on April 17, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Thin skinned my a$$. The we is all of us who understand the importance of removing Obama. You seem a little ambivalent. Are you?

Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Ambivalent, towards Rmoney™ or 0?

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Who are these nutjobs who think Obama’s likable? He’s petulant, peevish, arrogant… What? Because he shoots hoops, people like him? I think it’s the media who is convinced he’s likable because they worship him and can’t conceive of anyone not liking him

He isn’t likeable. He is detestable. But you’ll never, ever get an accurate read on his “likeability” in a poll. Too many people afraid to say they actually dislike the President personally.

Right Mover on April 17, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Thin skinned my a$$. The we is all of us who understand the importance of removing Obama. You seem a little ambivalent. Are you?

Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Ambivalent, towards Rmoney™ or 0?

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Since I am leaving this thread I like to close. Ambivalent towards Rmoney™, yes. Ambivalent towards 0, no.

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Romney surrogates, not Romney, can drive down Obama’s “likeability.”

The real gem is to get someone, anyone, to get Obama to lose his legendary nasty temper in public. If the Obama mask comes off, Romney will win in a landslide.

Remember in 1980: Carter’s nasty and false attacks on Reagan drove up his own negatives, to the point that swing voters ultimately thought of Carter: screw the bastard.

matthew8787 on April 17, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Well Michelle informed us today at a fundraiser that “This President has led us out of the darkness and into the light.” That should tick him up a bit.

s/

sandee on April 17, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Agree. As long as HRH Michelle keeps spewing tired, old 2008 campaign pious Obamaworship drivel, the GOP has this thing wrapped up. She’s delusional and stuck in a time warp.

Philly on April 17, 2012 at 9:47 PM

If Romney can combine a sense of humor with his already established gravitas, he might just be able to replicate Reagan’s path to victory.

Romney’s more of the UN-Reagan. I don’t think what worked for Reagan will work for him.

There Goes The Neighborhood on April 17, 2012 at 11:31 PM

You keep saying that…I do not think you know what it means.

Dude, we’re just commenters on a blog. Get a griiiip!

thebrokenrattle on April 17, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Your imagination needs improvement.

———–
Basilsbest on April 17, 2012 at 7:59 PM

No, you will not be allowed within thousands of miles of it.

On the being “sick”, ignore my comments. Only Obama gnat-brains write inanities like yours.

I will quit saying what I please when I decide.
You may write anything you wish, at any time.

Schadenfreude on April 18, 2012 at 12:07 AM

We have something to be happy about.
Don’t worry.
Be happy.

FlaMurph on April 17, 2012 at 5:49 PM
Pray tell, what might that be ? And who is the we you speak of? Are you more than one person?

Bmore on April 17, 2012 at 6:20 PM

The same “we” as in “We‘re the ones we‘ve been waiting for”?

Steve Z on April 18, 2012 at 10:26 AM

…but 0bama sucks infinitely more than the rest.

cozmo on April 17, 2012 at 5:05 PM

I paused on this comment to ponder just how much he sucks. And then I thought about how a ‘normal’ pump can’t draw water up from a hole deeper than exactly twenty-something feet because the vacuum would have to exceed the physical limit – no flow – no work gets done.

So, I’m going with that analogy: Obama sucks like pump sitting on a deep well: Not only does he suck, but he can get nothing done.

You have to admit, students: that’s some serious suckiness right there.

Tsar of Earth on April 18, 2012 at 11:30 AM

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