Fox News poll: Romney 46, Obama 44

posted at 9:49 pm on April 12, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is, I think, the first national poll conducted since Romney was unofficially crowned GOP nominee, which means it’s obligatory blog material even though I’m not sure what it tells us. Ace points to it as a reminder that after all the yelling about Etch-a-Sketch and Hilary Rosen is done, voters will ask themselves one question: “Do I want to sign up for a repeat of the last four years or do I want a chance at something different?” But that’s really just saying that the election will come down to the state of the economy in the fall (which is true). If it’s picking up, voters will take it as proof that they won’t get a repeat of the last four years even if they give O a second term. If it isn’t, they’ll conclude otherwise. What this poll proves, I guess, is that Romney’s fully capable of winning this race as long as The One ends up with no “recovery” trump card to play on him.

Here’s a mighty tasty bit of data from the crosstabs, though:

Note the spread among indies and among women, where it’s much narrower than you’d expect given the Democrats’ “gender gap” advantage. In fact, Obama led Romney head to head on various intangibles polled — who’s smarter, more trustworthy, more honest — but on this killer Q, Romney’s already got a notable lead. That’ll shrink if unemployment does, but it’s nice to start with that advantage.


The poll shows the gender gap may not solely be a problem for the Republican candidate. Women are more likely to back Obama (by 49-41 percent), while men are even more likely to give their support to Romney (by 52-38 percent). The 2008 Fox News national exit poll showed women voted for Obama over Republican John McCain by 13 percentage points (56-43 percent). Historically, exit poll results show women have consistently backed the Democrat over the Republican in presidential elections.

Obama’s overall job approval rating stands at 42 percent, down from 47 percent last month. The drop comes mainly from Democrats: 80 percent approve now, down from 86 percent in March. A 51 percent majority of voters disapproves of the job Obama is doing.

News of a stalled economic recovery has likely contributed to the decline in the president’s approval.

If you’re tired of the “war on women” nonsense, and we all are, look on the bright side: It’s a battle being fought by Democrats defensively, on their own turf. They’ve all but given up on winning men from Romney; their best bet for reelection is to try to offset his advantage with males by building an advantage just as big with women voters. That’s what all the pandering lately is about, and that’s why Romney’s rolling out his own strategy aimed at women. He doesn’t need to win the demographic, just to keep it close so that men carry him over the finish line. Hopefully Rosengate helped a little.

Democrats: Obama Has Dicked Us Around For Four Years, Now It’s Our Turn

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Oh, suppose I should include the link to that.

WolvenOne on April 13, 2012 at 1:08 PM

The Empty Election

What has happened to the 2012 campaign?

This should be the most important election of our lifetime. But it’s clear that something is seriously wrong. How can we be having such an underwhelming, uninspiring and irrelevant election campaign at such a critical juncture?

The only way to achieve victory has been through negative advertising — where the candidates play a secondary role to Super PACs.

The result has been a declining level of confidence, both domestic and international, about our leadership role. Our political system, once the ideal, is now a subject of widespread ridicule.

The very fact that 2012 is being carried out as if it were no different from any other election, at an extraordinary moment — when profound international challenges loom, and serious national crises have gone unaddressed — speaks to the ultimate disconnect between the people and their elected leaders.

If the key message voters sent in the 2010 midterm shellacking was: We don’t want overreaching big government and health care, the key message this year is: We don’t like any of you and none of this meets our concerns.

Enthusiasm about voting in the election is down across the board, according to Gallup’s latest poll. The GOP primary campaign has been marked by low voter turnout as well as widespread dissatisfaction among Republicans with what were the four leading contenders.

Indeed, the only people who appear enthused are the handful of mega-donors, bundlers, lobbyists, hedge fund managers and inside-the-Beltway powerbrokers now cutting deals, funding ad wars and propping up weakening primary contenders through massive cash injections.

Mitt Romney’s negative rating, for example, vastly exceeds his positive. Roughly 50 percent of voters view the former Massachusetts governor unfavorably in the most recent ABC News/ Washington Post poll, while only 34 percent are favorable. Voters have no clear sense of what Romney stands for, what his administration will mean and why his candidacy is at all relevant to the electorate’s deep-seated and systematic angst and fear about their economic futures.

Nothing underscores how vapid the 2012 election has become more than the senior Romney campaign adviser, Eric Fehrnstrom’s “Etch-a-sketch” comment two weeks ago – suggesting that this candidate was a blank slate who could, and would, be written on.

What Fehnstrom didn’t say, and what most commentators have missed, is that whatever Romney ultimately writes on the sketchboard is unlikely to be responsive to the problems facing America. Three-quarters of voters now believe that our elected leaders in Washington govern without the consent of the people, a majority of Americans think that the nation is in decline and believe that their children will not be able to achieve the American Dream, according to Gallup.

The American people want a government that will, at the very least, be a neutral arbiter that allows everyone to reach their full potential – without favoring any strata, particularly the very rich and powerful. Neither party is addressing these issues seriously, nor offering any overarching vision of national purpose. Instead, lawmakers on the left and right continue to offer an approach that is out of touch with our increasingly disenfranchised and disillusioned electorate.

In an election without purpose, the ultimate loser won’t be the Democrats or Republicans — it will be the American people.

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Jayrae on April 13, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Wow. Winner! Bwahahaaha! Buy more polls!

TheAlamos on April 13, 2012 at 2:56 PM

0 is done!

Bmore on April 13, 2012 at 6:16 PM

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