Fox News poll: Romney 46, Obama 44

posted at 9:49 pm on April 12, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is, I think, the first national poll conducted since Romney was unofficially crowned GOP nominee, which means it’s obligatory blog material even though I’m not sure what it tells us. Ace points to it as a reminder that after all the yelling about Etch-a-Sketch and Hilary Rosen is done, voters will ask themselves one question: “Do I want to sign up for a repeat of the last four years or do I want a chance at something different?” But that’s really just saying that the election will come down to the state of the economy in the fall (which is true). If it’s picking up, voters will take it as proof that they won’t get a repeat of the last four years even if they give O a second term. If it isn’t, they’ll conclude otherwise. What this poll proves, I guess, is that Romney’s fully capable of winning this race as long as The One ends up with no “recovery” trump card to play on him.

Here’s a mighty tasty bit of data from the crosstabs, though:

Note the spread among indies and among women, where it’s much narrower than you’d expect given the Democrats’ “gender gap” advantage. In fact, Obama led Romney head to head on various intangibles polled — who’s smarter, more trustworthy, more honest — but on this killer Q, Romney’s already got a notable lead. That’ll shrink if unemployment does, but it’s nice to start with that advantage.

More:

The poll shows the gender gap may not solely be a problem for the Republican candidate. Women are more likely to back Obama (by 49-41 percent), while men are even more likely to give their support to Romney (by 52-38 percent). The 2008 Fox News national exit poll showed women voted for Obama over Republican John McCain by 13 percentage points (56-43 percent). Historically, exit poll results show women have consistently backed the Democrat over the Republican in presidential elections.

Obama’s overall job approval rating stands at 42 percent, down from 47 percent last month. The drop comes mainly from Democrats: 80 percent approve now, down from 86 percent in March. A 51 percent majority of voters disapproves of the job Obama is doing.

News of a stalled economic recovery has likely contributed to the decline in the president’s approval.

If you’re tired of the “war on women” nonsense, and we all are, look on the bright side: It’s a battle being fought by Democrats defensively, on their own turf. They’ve all but given up on winning men from Romney; their best bet for reelection is to try to offset his advantage with males by building an advantage just as big with women voters. That’s what all the pandering lately is about, and that’s why Romney’s rolling out his own strategy aimed at women. He doesn’t need to win the demographic, just to keep it close so that men carry him over the finish line. Hopefully Rosengate helped a little.


Democrats: Obama Has Dicked Us Around For Four Years, Now It’s Our Turn


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I’m a die-hard Romney supporter, but I also have a functioning brain and realize how hard it will beat the president. I am just now starting to believe its more-likely-than-not, going to happen.

Rusty Allen on April 12, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Well then, you’re not all bad. :) He better get armored up though—cast iron Mormon PJ’s and whatever else he needs.

arnold ziffel on April 12, 2012 at 10:32 PM

the incumbent president is always hard to beat. even the unlikeable ones like Nixon and W won re-election by bigger margins then their first elections.
DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Both were Republcans, Obama is this year’s Jimmy Carter (D).

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 10:33 PM

What happened to JannyMae? She should be here telling
us how oppressed she is.

Rusty Allen on April 12, 2012 at 10:07 PM

…being treated in the same ER as Bluegill… unconscious from a seismic political orgasm?

KOOLAID2 on April 12, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Folks, Obama isn’t going to win. Voters are pretty dumb and uninformed, but they’re not that dumb and uninformed. Reality comes into play at some point.

therightwinger on April 12, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Yeah, well if that’s true why is Keith Ellison my congressman and Al Franken my senator?

It’s my experience that dumb trumps reality every time.

Bruno Strozek on April 12, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Obama is in DEEP kimchee. As soon as Romney reminds people that because of Obama and Senate Democrats, all married working professional couples will have to pay Alternative Minimum Tax rather than standard income tax. This means MOST of your deductions go away.

This is going to hammer places like Washington DC, New York, Silicon Valley, etc.

DINK (Dual Income No Kids) couples with a college degree working in professional occupations are going to discover themselves absolutely REAMED by the tax code in 2013. This takes effect in January after the elections and they won’t see the result until April 15, 2014 (which will pretty much guarantee a steam cleaning of any Senate Democrats up for election that fall).

crosspatch on April 12, 2012 at 10:35 PM

the incumbent president is always hard to beat. even the unlikeable ones like Nixon and W won re-election by bigger margins then their first elections.

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Well, remember, Nixon got on TV in October in 1972 and proclaimed, “peace is at hand” and he had a really bad opponent.

With W, at least people were WORKING under his presidency. His biggest burden was a badly run Iraq war. But people were not economically hurting in 2004.

Big difference today.

karenhasfreedom on April 12, 2012 at 10:35 PM

The Ann Romney affair today shows just how ready, eager, and willing Romney will be to dismantle Obama and his memes at every turn and on every field of battle.

Swerve22 on April 12, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Yeah, well if that’s true why is Keith Ellison my congressman and Al Franken my senator?
It’s my experience that dumb trumps reality every time.
Bruno Strozek on April 12, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Two things – 1) The MN DFL Machine has been entrenched for half a century. 2) People don’t attribute the state of the nation to either of them, that falls on the guy at the top.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 10:38 PM

It’ll be a heavy lift to convince voters that things are getting better. Even if the unemployment rate strays into the high 7′s and the cost of gas levels off at $4, that’s still pretty bleak. Then you layer in the mammoth deficit, the decrepit energy policy (Excel Pipeline, coal plants shuttering), the growing shadow of inflation– none of which will go away by election day–and Independents are abandoning the USS Obama.

No, the Distracto-Factory at 1600 Pennsylvania knows that anything resembling having Obama running on his record is one-term territory. Before it’s all said and done, they’ll claim that Republicans are waging war on your dogs, cats, and remote controls.

EMD on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Both were Republcans, Obama is this year’s Jimmy Carter (D).

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Obama the Al-Qaeda decimator is no Carter and Willard is NO Reagan I think we can all agree on that. You guys got a big hill to climb. Other than Indiana I can’t think of any state that is a clear pick-up for Willard.

barring no major economic collapses or acts of war here is your election 2012 map:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iSq

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

But if Barack Obama is worse than jimmy carter and jimmy carter failed to win re-election–then…

Rusty Allen on April 12, 2012 at 10:40 PM

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

DBear: The surviving troll after the Rosen bomb went off. Survival is impressive, but your “logic” will not save you.

thebrokenrattle on April 12, 2012 at 10:44 PM

How many incumbents 7 mos. away from election polling at 45% +/- have won? When we rub out the numbers for the Bradley effect, Pres. O’blamer will be annihilated. And to steal a line from one of our fav, former trolls-COUNT IT!

hillsoftx on April 12, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Bush, I think.

alchemist19 on April 12, 2012 at 10:21 PM

According to Gallup, Bush was at 52% approval for most of April 2004, was never below 47% for that entire year, and was over 50% for 20 out of 35 polling periods for 2004. By comparison, Barack’s Gallup numbers so far this year (15 polls) show no polls at or over 50%, and appear to be averaging around 45%. Bush’s numbers going into re-election were quite a bit better than Barack’s.

Rational Thought on April 12, 2012 at 10:45 PM

The economy stinks. Obama will follow historical trends and be replaced. “Al-Qaeda decimator”. Ha Ha. Not even Michelle buys it.

Marcus on April 12, 2012 at 10:45 PM

DBear ….good to know you support state sanctioned assassinations.

CW on April 12, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Obama the Al-Qaeda decimator

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

How much of a Job Approval Bump did he get for taking out bin Laden?

5 points, and it rapidly disappeared. And one of those polls had to sample twice as many Democrats as Republicans to get that result. You must be so proud.

Right after 9/11, Bush had his Job Approval rocket to 90%. All by reading a book upside down.

That really eats you up inside, doesn’t it?

F-

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2012 at 10:47 PM

You guys got a big hill to climb.
DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

You wouldn’t be trolling here if you didn’t dwell in nonstop terror of what’s shaping up to be a major whomping of “Welcome Back, Carter”. Your actions betray your BS.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 10:48 PM

DBear: The surviving troll after the Rosen bomb went off. Survival is impressive, but your “logic” will not save you.

thebrokenrattle on April 12, 2012 at 10:44 PM

you think the Rosen thing is a game-changer? Yeah she should probably resign her position in the administration right away or it could really hurt hi.. oh wait she is not affiliated with Obama or his campaign at all? Pfffft nice try. We have 7 months of these news-cycle nontroversies to go I wouldn’t start measuring the drapes just yet.

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Women are more likely to back Obama (by 49-41 percent)…

Fun fact: Obama won women by 13 points in 2008. Gore won women by 10 points in 2000. Clinton won women by 17 points in 1996. Obama’s going to win women–even Kerry won women by 3 points in 2004–but winning them by a mere 8 points is not going to get the job done.

Fabozz on April 12, 2012 at 10:49 PM

We have 7 months of these Democrat-Manufactured news-cycle nontroversies to go so we don’t have to run on O’bama’s “record”… I wouldn’t start measuring the drapes just yet.

PaulBegala on April 12, 2012 at 10:49 PM

High, Paul!

Del Dolemonte on April 12, 2012 at 10:54 PM

You wouldn’t be trolling here if you didn’t dwell in nonstop terror of what’s shaping up to be a major whomping of “Welcome Back, Carter”. Your actions betray your BS.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 10:48 PM

uh, no non-stop terror would be the threat of a Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum presidency. Same reason I would fear a 7 year-old handling a hand gun. I am very happy you guys went with a grown-up, the defeat of Rick Santorum is especially a good thing for the gay community. Do I want Romney to win? of course not I will do all I can to help beat him but it won’t be the apocalypse either

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:54 PM

you think the Rosen thing is a game-changer? Yeah she should probably resign her position in the administration right away or it could really hurt hi.. oh wait she is not affiliated with Obama or his campaign at all? Pfffft nice try. We have 7 months of these news-cycle nontroversies to go I wouldn’t start measuring the drapes just yet.

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:49 PM

She’s been a White House visitor 35 times — five of those times having personal appointments with President Barack Hussein Obama. She’s on the team, pal. She’s on the team. Well…she was…on the team. Now she’s under the bus wheels, rolling around wondering what the hell hit her.

Rational Thought on April 12, 2012 at 10:55 PM

DBear on April 12, 2012

Must just kill you that Obama and around 60 percent of black Americans don’t see you as fully human with the rights of a straight American.

CW on April 12, 2012 at 10:57 PM

She’s been a White House visitor 35 times — five of those times having personal appointments with President Barack Hussein Obama. She’s on the team, pal. She’s on the team. Well…she was…on the team. Now she’s under the bus wheels, rolling around wondering what the hell hit her.

Rational Thought on April 12, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Shhh you’re ruin the narrative.

/

CW on April 12, 2012 at 10:57 PM

We have 7 months of these news-cycle nontroversies to go I wouldn’t start measuring the drapes just yet.

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Oh, certainly. Nothing is etched in stone. But today is the day that Hope was reborn like a Phoenix , from the ashes of the wretched Farley poster with Obama’s stolen image on it and this “nontroversy” has rallied our side to Romney quicker than I could have imagined.

thebrokenrattle on April 12, 2012 at 10:58 PM

barring no major economic collapses or acts of war here is your election 2012 map:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iSq

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Get out of your rainbow room, the economic collapse has been here for three years. Remember, Odumdum’s unemployment number doesn’t count those who have given up looking for work.

msupertas on April 12, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Do I want Romney to win? of course not I will do all I can to help beat him but it won’t be the apocalypse either
DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:54 PM

While I’m glad you’ve accepted and come to terms with the very likely defeat of Carter II, as I said your trolling here betrays any claim you make about not being abjectly terrified of a November thrashing. Sane people do not attack someone they do not see as a threat.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Today’s Rasmussen Poll

Ron Paul 44%
Barack Obama 43%

dom89031 on April 12, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Must just kill you that Obama and around 60 percent of black Americans don’t see you as fully human with the rights of a straight American.

CW on April 12, 2012 at 10:57 PM

yes but it kills me more that my very catholic family doesn’t see me as a real man because I am gay. wait what is this group therapy? lets move on

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 11:03 PM

uh, no non-stop terror would be the threat of a Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum presidency. Same reason I would fear a 7 year-old handling a hand gun. I am very happy you guys went with a grown-up, the defeat of Rick Santorum is especially a good thing for the gay community. Do I want Romney to win? of course not I will do all I can to help beat him but it won’t be the apocalypse either

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:54 PM

Yea, cause you know, those crazy candidates might have rounded up all the gays and shipped them to Iran or something. Hey, gays for oil. Bul$hit. You would have gotten compassion like all other Americans, instead of the false pandering you get now. What a dope.

msupertas on April 12, 2012 at 11:07 PM

The results are almost indentical to the ABC/WaPo poll when adjusted for the out-of-whack sampling.

Tater Salad on April 12, 2012 at 11:08 PM

She’s been a White House visitor 35 times — five of those times having personal appointments with President Barack Hussein Obama. She’s on the team, pal. She’s on the team. Well…she was…on the team. Now she’s under the bus wheels, rolling around wondering what the hell hit her.
Rational Thought on April 12, 2012 at 10:55 PM

It was a badly planned, ill-advised escapade by the Obama camp. They trotted out Obama to throw the anti-Ann Romney ball in the air and expected their dim-witted PR-operative Hilary Rosen to slam dunk it. Now they’re all apologizing for it.

The upside? Obama’s go-to gal Hilary is a regular CNN Obama strategy spokesperson. More hilarity guaranteed to ensue.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 11:10 PM

While I’m glad you’ve accepted and come to terms with the very likely defeat of Carter II, as I said your trolling here betrays any claim you make about not being abjectly terrified of a November thrashing. Sane people do not attack someone they do not see as a threat.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 11:01 PM

of course he is a threat but Obama’s defeat is very likely? nooooo I’d say it’s 60/40 chance right now he wins re-election I just wanna help push that 40 down to 0

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 11:10 PM

I’d say it’s 60/40 chance right now he wins re-election
DBear on April 12, 2012 at 11:10 PM

When you’re in the throes of total panic I suppose how you feel and fantasy numbers trumps the reality. More’s the pity.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 11:13 PM

I can understand the sentiment that Obama is going to be hard to beat, I don’t understand the overwhelming “Romney can’t possibly win” from our side of the aisle.

Boring and stiff Presidents often times win, look at Nixon and H.W. Bush’s landslides in ’72 and ’88.

Every poll I’ve seen shows this race in the margin of error, and we just finished an ugly primary a few days ago.

I’m not giving up on making Obama a one-term President.

BradTank on April 12, 2012 at 11:23 PM

According to Gallup, Bush was at 52% approval for most of April 2004, was never below 47% for that entire year, and was over 50% for 20 out of 35 polling periods for 2004. By comparison, Barack’s Gallup numbers so far this year (15 polls) show no polls at or over 50%, and appear to be averaging around 45%. Bush’s numbers going into re-election were quite a bit better than Barack’s.

Rational Thought on April 12, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Bush’s favorables were better than Obama’s right now and that is big but his re-elect numbers in the head-to-head against Kerry were below 50%. There were some that had him that high but there were just as many that had him in the low 40s. In early/mid-April CNN had Bush 47-43, ARG has Kerry 48-43, Newsweek had Kerry 46-42, Harris had Bush 46-43 and Zogby had them tied at 45. Don’t get me wrong, I love that Odumbo’s numbers are this low but I’m not going to let it get me too confident yet.

alchemist19 on April 12, 2012 at 11:23 PM

I expect Romney to win by 5-7 points in November.

ButterflyDragon on April 12, 2012 at 11:24 PM

barring no major economic collapses or acts of war here is your election 2012 map:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iSq

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

That map is delusional, calling VA and NC for Obama at this early date. Put those in Romney’s camp and it’s a 254-284 race. It all comes down to OH, NM, NV, IA and CO. If I were Obumble, I’d be nervous.

HTL on April 12, 2012 at 11:33 PM

angryed hardest hit

The Count on April 12, 2012 at 9:50 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHA………

budfox on April 12, 2012 at 11:33 PM

yes but it kills me more that my very catholic family doesn’t see me as a real man because I am gay.

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 11:03 PM

Just had to throw that in there didn’t you?

tbear44 on April 12, 2012 at 11:33 PM

According to Gallup, Bush was at 52% approval for most of April 2004, was never below 47% for that entire year, and was over 50% for 20 out of 35 polling periods for 2004. By comparison, Barack’s Gallup numbers so far this year (15 polls) show no polls at or over 50%, and appear to be averaging around 45%. Bush’s numbers going into re-election were quite a bit better than Barack’s.

Rational Thought on April 12, 2012 at 10:45 PM

And that was with non-stop LSM screaming about how horrible the economy was, even though it wasn’t. Obama on the other hand has the LSM covering for his butt. He’s in trouble.

txhsmom on April 12, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Yeah, well if that’s true why is Keith Ellison my congressman and Al Franken my senator?

It’s my experience that dumb trumps reality every time.

Bruno Strozek on April 12, 2012 at 10:34 PM

oy, that’s some ‘representation’ you’ve got there…You can’t beat that (and I live in Cali :-)…

jimver on April 12, 2012 at 11:48 PM

I’d say it’s 60/40 chance right now he wins re-election
DBear on April 12, 2012 at 11:10 PM

back on meth?

jimver on April 12, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Who cares, both are the same. The only difference is Romney is 50% whiter than Obama.

air_up_there on April 12, 2012 at 11:59 PM

LOL! Shillin’ for etch-a-sketch again are we.

Give it up.

Jayrae on April 13, 2012 at 12:07 AM

yes but it kills me more that my very catholic family doesn’t see me as a real man because I am gay.

DBag on April 12, 2012 at 11:03 PM

I’m sure they just find you incredibly annoying.

Chuck Schick on April 13, 2012 at 12:11 AM

My analysis is that Romney starts with the 47% that voted for McCain; my assumtion there won’t be erosion of a single vote of that group. What gives me comfort is I’m sure there is plenty of erosion in O’s 53% from ’08

Tater Salad on April 13, 2012 at 12:21 AM

Who cares, both are the same. The only difference is Romney is 50% whiter than Obama.

air_up_there on April 12, 2012 at 11:59 PM

Remind me again which foreign leader Mitt bowed to.

alchemist19 on April 13, 2012 at 12:23 AM

They’ve all but given up on winning men from Romney; their best bet for reelection is to try to offset his advantage with males by building an advantage just as big with women voters.

Which means that Ann Romney needs a really big role. Which is why Team HopeNChange has been looking for an opening to attack her. Now that they have done that, Rosen’s horrible statements are being backed by NOW and will probably have Code Pink hounding her. It’s quite clear where the meme of this is going. Romney needs to continue to press the 92% women unemployed number. All the liberal fact checkers are doing their “false but true” nonsense. Whatever! Roll Ann Romney out more. Finally, we need to get conservative/independent men to the polls.

rubberneck on April 13, 2012 at 12:24 AM

Romney is a handsome man with a long lasting, loving marriage and five terrific sons. He will do quite well with the female voters who value family, and there isn’t anything the rotten Democrats can do to change that, no matter how low they stoop, as we’ve seen today with their attacks on Ann Romney. It’s over for Obama. He better milk his remaining months in office for all it’s worth. Send Michelle and the kids on a summer tour of Europe or some other lavish, taxpayer financed vacation.

OxyCon on April 13, 2012 at 12:38 AM

With all due respect, I think maybe Ace is thinking about more than just ‘the economy’.

Barack Obama is the only president in my lifetime who has made his disdain for America and Americans so clear.

Eric Holder, an anti-white racist if there ever was one, just thanked Al Sharpton, AL SHARPTON, for his “partnership”.

Barack Obama and “catholic” Kathleen Sebelius have just taken it upon themselves to tell the Catholic Church to violate it’s conscience, OR ELSE.

Barack Obama’s surrogates have just made a humongous kerfuffle over Rush Limbaugh calling some overgrown “college student” a slut after years of ignoring Sarah Palin and her children being called the same and worse.

And yesterday another of his surrogates called Ann Romney a lazy bum.

No, there are plenty of reasons we don’t want another 4 years of this nincompoop at the levers of power. Nor his minions.

The acronym still holds:

O.ne
B.ig
A.ss
M.istake
A.merica

I don’t think we’re going to make that mistake again.

I certainly hope & pray we aren’t.

Jocon307 on April 13, 2012 at 1:07 AM

I’m a huge Mitt fan, but this poll might be slightly optimistic with the 41 D / 40 R / 19 I split. Nevertheless, to be doing this well before fully consolidating support from the ABRs and this Hilary Rosen flap means that November is looking good. Pick a VP candidate not scary to moderates and independents and Mitt wins Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and a 300+ EV victory.

ak90049 on April 13, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Whose turn is it to change the newspapers under angryed and Hondav69?

Chuck Schick on April 13, 2012 at 1:08 AM

I don’t think we’re going to make that mistake again.

I certainly hope & pray we aren’t.

Jocon307 on April 13, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Obama/Romney with choices like that you cannot hope to think we are not going to make that mistake again… It is guaranteed one of them wins. Two sides of the same minted coin…

astonerii on April 13, 2012 at 1:25 AM

Remember, remember, come this November
The festering heat he has brought
‘Tis no reason why his assault on Americans
Should ever be forgiven, or forgot

This tyrant most foul who lords over us
He who gives us the smack of his rod
Soon now we will rend him to bits
We will give him the Judgment of God

If each man and woman does what they must
The overreaching tyrant will be turned into dust
Soon now our Lady of Justice will possess him in her breathtaking, hair raising bed
She will tingle his spine as she captures his heart and his head!

He will gaze up at our Lady of Justice
With her shimmering, glimmering electoral blade
As she kisses this sick tyrant
She will sing him a last serenade

PercyB on April 13, 2012 at 1:30 AM

It’s over for Obama. He better milk his remaining months in office for all it’s worth. Send Michelle and the kids on a summer tour of Europe or some other lavish, taxpayer financed vacation.

OxyCon on April 13, 2012 at 12:38 AM

Lady of Spain we abhor you
Lavishly vacationing where you think they adore you
We’re here earning it for you
That’s all you think us peasants are good to do

Lady of Spain it’s so revealing
You think before you we should all be bowing and kneeling
Spending our taxes to you is so appealing
Over there where you think they love you

Enjoy it while you can
You and your sorry excuse for a man
As someday you’ll both get your due
When the American Lady of Justice catches up to your King Louie husband and you

PercyB on April 13, 2012 at 1:45 AM

You wouldn’t be trolling here if you didn’t dwell in nonstop terror of what’s shaping up to be a major whomping of “Welcome Back, Carter”. Your actions betray your BS.

whatcat on April 12, 2012 at 10:48 PM

And with that comment the local Mittler Youth Brigade mobilizes!

Dunedainn on April 13, 2012 at 2:12 AM

DBear on April 12, 2012 at 10:39 PM

I was getting my college Education during Carter. Obama is far worse because of all the data manipulation going on. Calculate Inflation and unemployment with the same rubrics and you will see that Obama has made Carter look like a piker.

chemman on April 13, 2012 at 2:30 AM

Obama is looking more like a chump every single day.

Someone said a few months ago that even a lawn gnome could beat Obama this fall, and I am tempted to agree.

The economic numbers in March are bad. The economy isn’t turning around. If there was going to be any significant economic turnaround 6 to 7 months from now, we would already being seeing the signs of it. It takes a while for these things to work through the economy. If we don’t see any very clear signs in Q2 that the economy is turning around, it will be too late for any change after June to have a significant impact on the November elections.

Obama is flat out toast. I wasn’t so sure in January as there were some signs that things might have been easing up a bit but those signs are out the window today.

The economy isn’t going anywhere at the moment and there is another slug of foreclosures getting ready to hit the housing market.

crosspatch on April 13, 2012 at 2:46 AM

Obama/Romney with choices like that you cannot hope to think we are not going to make that mistake again… It is guaranteed one of them wins. Two sides of the same minted coin…

astonerii on April 13, 2012 at 1:25 AM

Mourn the death of America now or mourn it later. At least with Romney you have more time to prepare a eulogy…maybe.

swinia sutki on April 13, 2012 at 5:18 AM

I love the optimism here concerning the economy coming back before the November election…and if it does, I will vote for Obama. However, I am not worried that I will have to be called on this statement.

Obama is the worst president in my lifetime, or shall I say, the worst LEADER. Here is a man that had a lot of potential, he proves the idea that charisma can only get you so far, after that, you still have to lead, this man couldn’t lead a girl scout troop. The USA has never been so divided with feelings of angst and high anxiety covering the nation. The Democratic message is one of unity, but on divide and conquer. The message isn’t one that yearns one to pursue the American Dream, but rather one that places a gun to your head and says, “You will produce for me.”

Mitt Romney offers hope, and no matter what anyone says, he has a background of proven leadership skills, and besides, he would be more likely than Obama to provide his authentic USA birth certificate. If we lose this election in 2012, I am afraid the lights go out for the USA.

mark cantu on April 13, 2012 at 6:20 AM

These numbers are important only if the poll is from NBC.

shar61 on April 13, 2012 at 6:35 AM

My friend asked me last night to give her three good reasons to vote for Romney.

1. He is not a Marxist, his inner circle are not marxists.
2. He is not a communist, his inner circle are not commies.
3. He has succeeded in every endeavor he has chosen. He did not have his future paved for him with good intentions and an unlimited amount of green back.

I lived through Carter, and this is worse.

shar61 on April 13, 2012 at 6:40 AM

7% of self identified Tea Party members would choose Obama as best to fix economy?

I smell protest answers to the poll.

It’s low… But it needs to be addressed by Romney.

************************
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GadsdenRattlers on April 13, 2012 at 7:04 AM

Interesting poll. Fox polls have never favored Republicans. It’s a good sign.

writeblock on April 13, 2012 at 7:17 AM

What a pleasure it is to read some optimism around here! This is a single poll and may even be an outlier, but I have no doubt that when this thing is over we will be hearing, “Hail to the Chief” when Mitt enters a room.

MJBrutus on April 13, 2012 at 7:20 AM

Fun fact: Obama won women by 13 points in 2008. Gore won women by 10 points in 2000. Clinton won women by 17 points in 1996. Obama’s going to win women–even Kerry won women by 3 points in 2004–but winning them by a mere 8 points is not going to get the job done.

Fabozz on April 12, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Seems Barack’s baby-mammas aren’t as plentiful.

jan3 on April 13, 2012 at 7:26 AM

I’m a huge Mitt fan, but this poll might be slightly optimistic with the 41 D / 40 R / 19 I split.

ak90049 on April 13, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Is that the sample? Wow. Anyway it seems that Obama and Romney are always pretty much neck and neck in Fox polls, so I don’t see why the champagne corks are flying. With the economy in the shape it’s in, with “real” unemployment in the double digits STILL and with skyrocketing costs — and given the fact that Romney’s at least not been called an insane clown as Palin has for the past 3 years — Romney should have a 10 point lead on Obama.

That map is delusional, calling VA and NC for Obama at this early date. Put those in Romney’s camp and it’s a 254-284 race. It all comes down to OH, NM, NV, IA and CO. If I were Obumble, I’d be nervous.

HTL on April 12, 2012 at 11:33 PM

From RCP:
FL: Obama +7
NC: Obama +5
NV: Obama +8
OH: Obama +8
PA: Obama +4
NM: Obama +16
CO: Obama +13

The only bright spot is a Roanoke College poll putting Romney ahead of Obama by 5 in VA.

ddrintn on April 13, 2012 at 7:31 AM

Who cares, both are the same. The only difference is Romney is 50% whiter than Obama.
air_up_there on April 12, 2012 at 11:59 PM

Remind me again which foreign leader Mitt bowed to.
alchemist19 on April 13, 2012 at 12:23 AM

Remind me again when Romney ever met with a world leader.

air_up_there on April 13, 2012 at 7:34 AM

Oh, and we were talking about NJ earlier this week. Well there was a poll released today showing Obama only up by 9 over Romney and Menendez only up by single digits as well over Kyrillis.

milcus on April 12, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Unless dead people, felons, and illegal aliens were included in the poll, it is not representative of who will cast the vote in November. The margin of fraud in black-hole towns like Newark would make Putin blush.

Archivarix on April 13, 2012 at 7:38 AM

Come on anti-Roms you believed the polls that showed him losing…..where are you now?

-

Btw nutters I know these polls this far out mean little.

CW on April 12, 2012 at 9:56 PM

roller coaster polls … one shows him tied … one up by 2 …
lets look in mid Sept. and early Oct.

the only real poll that counts is on Nov 6.

ABO

conservative tarheel on April 13, 2012 at 7:39 AM

If Obama continues on the stump as he has this past week or so (very nasty, partisan, defensive and sounding quite desperate) Independents will not see the same Obama they voted for in 2008. This election will be determined by them and them alone. Turnout on both right and left should be high, so it will come down squarely on their shoulders. This heavy campaigning disguised as regular presidential duties is very obvious to most.

All Romney has to do is remain calm but pump up the positive passion a bit and continue those campaign ads where he revisits those businesses that have shut down since Obama and Biden visited them during the stimulus fight. Those ads are lethal for Obama. Romney just needs to portray himself as a serious FIXER, a very capable, confident, proven turnaround artist and try to leave social issues on the back burner. Yeah sure, answer those social issue questions but never start out your stump speeches with them. But once again, I stress he must pump up his passion for this great nation (without singing patriot songs) I am very confident that Romney can pull this off. It is Obama’s to lose…..

BabysCatz on April 13, 2012 at 7:42 AM

arnold ziffel on April 12, 2012 at 10:10 PM
Many people feel that way. Nice imagery by the way.

Rusty Allen on April 12, 2012 at 10:17 PM

I am not one of them … I will vote for the nominee and if that is Romney
so be it .. but no glass … no ants … and no joy ….
ABO

conservative tarheel on April 13, 2012 at 7:43 AM

Btw nutters I know these polls this far out mean little.

CW on April 12, 2012 at 9:56 PM

But yet polls 3 years out showing Romney to be The Only One Who Can Beat Obama ™ were gospel. Gotcha.

ddrintn on April 13, 2012 at 7:44 AM

This election will be determined by them and them alone. Turnout on both right and left should be high, so it will come down squarely on their shoulders.

BabysCatz on April 13, 2012 at 7:42 AM

OK! I’m going to bookmark this comment and pull it out on November 7 when the TrueCons are getting the blame. “Hey, it was all on the shoulders of those indies.”

ddrintn on April 13, 2012 at 7:46 AM

Remind me again when Romney ever met with a world leader.

air_up_there on April 13, 2012 at 7:34 AM

Many times. He is friends with Bibi and Cameron to name just a couple. He has had many international business dealings and met with not just business leaders but heads of state as part of that.

MJBrutus on April 13, 2012 at 8:01 AM

mark cantu on April 13, 2012 at 6:20 AM

No insult intended, but I don’t understand the point you are trying to make in this post. I would be inclined to say that you are one of the large group of “undecideds”. If the economy is bad up until election day you would vote for Romney. However, if 24 hours before you went to the polls your boss tells you you are getting a raise you would immediately vote for Obama. Perhaps James Carvelle said it best that it is about the economy. What do you think a second Obama term would look like?

DaveDief on April 13, 2012 at 8:03 AM

Partisan weighting?

You always have to check the weighting. In fact, it would be really nice if HA contributors would just always give us the weighting, because otherwise we just have to look it up every time. Value-added, guys.

(As long as we’re wishing, would it kill AP to do maybe one or two photoshops a year, like back in the old AIITH days? Throw us a bone!)

TallDave on April 13, 2012 at 8:25 AM

Looking more broadly at what independents think of Obama, his approval rating is 37% among them, with 53% disapproving. Even more promising: “If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were:” Obama 37 / Romney 43 among indies.

Guys… I think we might win this…

Mr. Prodigy on April 13, 2012 at 8:29 AM

The results are almost indentical to the ABC/WaPo poll when adjusted for the out-of-whack sampling.

Tater Salad on April 12, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Correct, but the only poll that matters is in November. I wonder what Zero’s internal polls are showing.

dogsoldier on April 13, 2012 at 8:41 AM

Guess this poll didn’t oversample Demos.

IrishEyes on April 13, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Obama is in DEEP kimchee. As soon as Romney reminds people that because of Obama and Senate Democrats, all married working professional couples will have to pay Alternative Minimum Tax rather than standard income tax. This means MOST of your deductions go away.

This is going to hammer places like Washington DC, New York, Silicon Valley, etc.

Yeah, tell me about it.

eyedoc on April 13, 2012 at 9:17 AM

If it’s picking up, voters will take it as proof that they won’t get a repeat of the last four years even if they give O a second term.

Sorry AllahPundit this is a complete defeatest attitude that any economic good news for Obama erases his failures of 4 YEARS and will get people to sign up for 4 more years. People aren’t THAT enamored of Obama and ALL the deception he has pulled to get them to TRUST him based on a slight uptick AFTER 4 YEARS of bad news? I am not saying the election is in the bag but he won’t have the kind of faith for voters it takes to pull the lever on a guy who DID NOT deliver and actually WENT AGAINST the people’s wishes.

This is 1980 all over again. The last poll by voters signing up for more Jimmy Carter was HIS WORST. Before that people could pretend to still like him or be non-committal in the face of his failures. At the moment of truth people WILL NOT want to trust this guy especially with 4 years of untouchablility and with what promises to be a completely negative campiagn that will make him look like a complete liar compaired to his 2008 speeches. They rae already having the credibility issues and it isn’t even started in earnest yet.

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 9:35 AM

It is only going to get worse for Obama. His numbers that were never great in the first place are tanking. Economy failing, gas and food prices are sky high, and he jets around the country on our dime, giving the same speech about raising taxes on the rich. Not going to happen. Need to lower the out of control spending to match incoming money, not to raise taxes to match the crazy spending. Not that complicated, folks. One term.

Amazingoly on April 13, 2012 at 9:52 AM

From RCP:
FL: Obama +7
NC: Obama +5
NV: Obama +8
OH: Obama +8
PA: Obama +4
NM: Obama +16
CO: Obama +13

The only bright spot is a Roanoke College poll putting Romney ahead of Obama by 5 in VA.

ddrintn on April 13, 2012 at 7:31 AM

People need to understand what RCP does. They take any poll, literally any poll, and post the results. They dont look at the crosstabs, whether the poll is likely voters or registered voters, etc..

If a poll says Romney is down by 20, they will not question that poll, and will factor that poll into their average. So, 1 outlier skews the RCP average.

So, posting the RCP average literally does next to nothing. It is the mistake angryed makes and it is the mistake you are making.

Now, Obama might be up in many of these states, but he should be. He is the incumbent. And more than likely, he is up by a point or 2, at most, in those states (aside from NM and CO)

So, Romney has a very good chance at all these states. Many of those states went Republican in 2010, and there is really no reason why they should be going to Obama in the November.

milcus on April 13, 2012 at 9:56 AM

This is 1980 all over again.

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 9:35 AM

All right then. Go ahead and delude yourself.

Dunedainn on April 13, 2012 at 9:56 AM

From RCP:
FL: Obama +7
NC: Obama +5
NV: Obama +8
OH: Obama +8
PA: Obama +4
NM: Obama +16
CO: Obama +13

The only bright spot is a Roanoke College poll putting Romney ahead of Obama by 5 in VA.

ddrintn on April 13, 2012 at 7:31 AM

This is how I see the typical Mittbot when looking at polls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

angryed on April 13, 2012 at 10:01 AM

milcus on April 13, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Exactly right, don’t trust polls other than Rasmussen. The dirty secret of polling and the democrat party is they use them for fundraising. Businesses don’t contribute to losers who are anti-business. They only pay tribute to winners and businesses and business people don’t give money to the crony capitalist democrat machine unless they think they are buying access. I know this first hand from working in a large health insurance company in CT.
This is about appeasing the bastards so we get carve-outs in 2700 page bills.

The polls are rigged because the liberals who run them know when they go up in the polls the money comes in and when they go down in the polls the money dries up. The only person not in the tank for the democrats is Rasmussen. He can be wrong but he isn’t in the “help demorats” business.

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM

People need to understand what RCP does. They take any poll, literally any poll, and post the results. They dont look at the crosstabs, whether the poll is likely voters or registered voters, etc..

If a poll says Romney is down by 20, they will not question that poll, and will factor that poll into their average. So, 1 outlier skews the RCP average.

So, posting the RCP average literally does next to nothing. It is the mistake angryed makes and it is the mistake you are making.

Now, Obama might be up in many of these states, but he should be. He is the incumbent. And more than likely, he is up by a point or 2, at most, in those states (aside from NM and CO)

milcus on April 13, 2012 at 9:56 AM

LOL. A few months ago these same skewed worthtless polls were saying Romney was up. And those polls were the basis for the “ELECTABLE” label Romney pasted all over himself.

Now all of a sudden polls don’t mean anything.

Flippity-floppety-flip.

angryed on April 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Exactly right, don’t trust polls other than Rasmussen.

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Ras was one of the worst pollsters in 2010.

angryed on April 13, 2012 at 10:04 AM

those polls were the basis for the “ELECTABLE” label Romney pasted all over himself.

Now all of a sudden polls don’t mean anything.

Flippity-floppety-flip.

angryed on April 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Your a fool to base your faith in these polls and its silly to go round and round because polls count for nothing in November. They also are easily rigged because of people like you who make up your mind by whose ahead in the polls or worse yet need them for your mental health that your candidate is winning.

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Ras was one of the worst pollsters in 2010.

angryed on April 13, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I have bachelor’s degree in statistics and bachelor’s degree in Mathematics. I also have followed these pollsters FOR YEARS. Don’t try your asinine bullsh*t with me about Rasmussen being the worst. Quite to the contrary he was the only one who didn’t have to fudge his numers at the end of 2008 to get it right. Your a hack!

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I’m a huge Mitt fan, but this poll might be slightly optimistic with the 41 D / 40 R / 19 I split.

ak90049 on April 13, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Is that the sample? Wow. Anyway it seems that Obama and Romney are always pretty much neck and neck in Fox polls, so I don’t see why the champagne corks are flying. With the economy in the shape it’s in, with “real” unemployment in the double digits STILL and with skyrocketing costs — and given the fact that Romney’s at least not been called an insane clown as Palin has for the past 3 years — Romney should have a 10 point lead on Obama.

I wish AllahPundit had put up the D/R/I split, but if it is back-calculated from the posted crosstabs on the question on “who has the best experience to fix the economy”, the split seems to be

41 D / 39 R / 20 I.

IMHO, the Fox News poll oversamples both Democrats and Republicans and undersamples Independents, but the D – R difference is probably about right.

If the share of Independents in the November electorate is greater than 20% (probably between 30% and 35%), their vote will be crucial. According to what AP posted, they seem to trust Romney over Obama on the economy by 41-28, but are there (or will there be) other issues to incite them to VOTE for Obama?

We can probably expect the Democrats to distract voters with side issues such as a fake “war on women”, and it will be up to Romney and the Republicans to keep the electorate focused on “the economy, stupid”.

Steve Z on April 13, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I have bachelor’s degree in statistics and bachelor’s degree in Mathematics. I also have followed these pollsters FOR YEARS. Don’t try your asinine bullsh*t with me about Rasmussen being the worst. Quite to the contrary he was the only one who didn’t have to fudge his numers at the end of 2008 to get it right. Your a hack!

Conan on April 13, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Lol. Dont bother arguing with Ed. He simply doesn’t get polls, yet uses them to make points.

To him, if a poll says Romney is up by 12, it means nothing that it over-sampled Democrats by 7 and was conducted by polling registered voters instead of likely voters.

The only thing that matters to him is his irrational hatred of Mitt Romney.

milcus on April 13, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Combine the Fox poll with Rasmussen (48-44 Romney), which are weighted pretty evenly, and you see obama can’t get above 45%. I really believe the numbers just aren’t going to change a whole lot unless some unbelievable event occurs. Obama is in deep trouble.

Ta111 on April 13, 2012 at 10:36 AM

The thing I found odd is the 7 percent of Tea Party people who thought Obama would be better on the economy. Shouldn’t that number be zero percent if you’re really a tea party member?

jjverdi on April 13, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Women are more likely to back Obama (by 49-41 percent), while men are even more likely to give their support to Romney (by 52-38 percent).

Here again, Obama is under 50 percent. The gender gap likely will narrow as the campaign draws to a close. For example, suppose the undecideds break 2 to 1 against the incumbent, then Obama will carry women by 52 to 48 over Romney. This will not be nearly enough of a margin to save Obama if Romney is carrying men by double-digits.

ghostwriter on April 13, 2012 at 12:32 PM

The thing I found odd is the 7 percent of Tea Party people who thought Obama would be better on the economy. Shouldn’t that number be zero percent if you’re really a tea party member?

jjverdi on April 13, 2012 at 12:13 PM

I tend to agree. I suspect that the sampling error on the subsample splits is probably pretty large, and probably explains a lot of this odd result.

ghostwriter on April 13, 2012 at 12:37 PM

More good news.

Rasmussen today shows Romney +4 over Obama nationally, 48-44. Whats more, Rass’s Strong Approval/Disapproval index is at -17%, signaling that indeed democrats are not excited about Obama.

WolvenOne on April 13, 2012 at 1:08 PM

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