March unemployment 8.2%, economy added 121,000 jobs

posted at 9:10 am on April 6, 2012 by Steve Eggleston

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 8.2% from 8.3% last month, and the broader U-6 unemployment/underemployment rate dropped to 14.5% from 14.9%, while the economy added only 120,000 jobs overall and 121,000 jobs added in the private sector. According to Fox Business, the consensus among economists was for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.3% and for 203,000 jobs to be added, based on ADP’s estimate of 209,000 new private-sector jobs and Gallup’s mid-March unadusted unemployment rate drop of 0.3 percentage points.

To flip the question Ed asked last month, how did the unemployment rate drop when job growth was anemic? It’s a muddled mixture of good news and bad news. While the number of unemployed (at least those who had looked for work between mid-February and mid-March) dropped by 133,000 to 12,673,000 and the number of those not in the labor force but wanting a job dropped by 79,000 to 6,299,00 the number of those in the labor force fell by 164,000 to 154,707,0000. Moreover, on a seasonally-unadjusted basis, the number of those forced to part-time work due to economic conditions fell from 8,100,000 to 7,700,000.

The news appears to be a bit better going forward. Gallup noted their end-of-March unemployment estimate dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 8.1%, and Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin will be ending the last several weeks of extended unemployment benefits due to declining unemployment rates.

Update: The simplest measure of unemployment is to count the number of people who want a job but are out of work, regardless of whether they last searched for work in the prior 4 weeks (measured by the official U-3 rate), prior year (measured by the U-5 rate), or longer than a year ago, and divide that into that number plus the number of people employed. That measurement, unfortunately, has only been possible since 1994.

For March, that would be 18,972,000 (the 12,673,000 officially unemployed and part of the workforce plus the 6,299,000 who are not part of the workforce but who want a job), divided into 161,006,000 (the 154,707,000 officially part of the workforce plus the 6,299 who want jobs). That would put the “simple” unemployment rate at 11.8%.

The good news – that is a tick lower than February’s 11.9% “simple” unemployment rate. The bad news – that is higher than any point between 1994, when this measure was first possible, and March 2009.

Update: Courtesy Conservative4ev in the comments, Rasmussen answered the question of why so many people dropped out of the workforce, and it’s not due to retirement:

After holding steady for the past year, the number of Americans who know someone who’s given up looking for a job out of frustration with the current market is up to 48%.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% of Adults don’t know someone in this situation. But the number of Americans who know someone who has given up on the job market is up from 43% in February and ties the highest result measured in regular tracking since 2010. This finding hovered around 40% for most of 2011.


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I wonder why the extremist on this blog arent crying about how these numbers are cooked? They sure were in February when the numbers were over 200K

I get it though- Good numbers cooked, bad numbers real. Pathetic.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Well of course they’re cooked, but even the liberal press is looking in the pot to see that the chicken being prepared by the administration is actually rat meat; this is the best the spinners could get away with.

Bishop on April 6, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Stalin’s unemployment rate also went down. The same way. 50 million less workers.

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 11:14 AM

This shared sacrifice concept from Odumbo is now making sense. I sacrifice by paying much more in taxes and the 47% sacrifice by dropping out of the looking for work group so the numbers go down.

rjoco1 on April 6, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Stalin’s unemployment rate also went down. The same way. 50 million less workers.

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 11:14 AM

That’s gonna leave a mark.

davidk on April 6, 2012 at 11:19 AM

This job report doesn’t look good. My friend who works in mortgage servicing loss mitigation dept. told me that more loans will be in foreclosure. People are not paying because they’re expecting that more Obama money are coming and they rather pay their other bills first.

donyalola on April 6, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Where is Ed, or someone who undertands finance?….

So, to spin this as good news is misleading. There is nothing good about those numbers.

My strong suspicion is that Steve understands these numbers as well as any of us do; the numbers themselves, regardless if its a D or R Admin issuing them, are incomplete, fuzzy, and uncertain. I much appreciate his attempt at an honest assessment, rather than endlessly repeating “Obama bad bad bad man.”

bobs1196 on April 6, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Ed’s still on vacation. He’ll be back next week.

As for the good news/bad news, when the number of unemployed, both those “officially” unemployed and those not counted as part of the workforce but who want work, drop, that is (usually) good news. The bad news is that labor participation is continuing to drop, and as the second update shows, it’s not at all attributable to retirements.

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Stalin’s unemployment rate also went down. The same way. 50 million less workers.

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 11:14 AM

That’s gonna leave a mark.

davidk on April 6, 2012 at 11:19 AM

True, but Stalin did get help from WWII, which killed many people in the Soviet Union and created a huge demand in rebuilding from the war.

Gladtobehere on April 6, 2012 at 11:26 AM

The Barack administration can’t fudge these numbers all the way through to election day.

Oh, they’ll try, of course, but your point is correct: REALITY ultimately invades people’s lives as they head into the voting booths.

Remember the Carter people tried this nonsense, peddling the asinine notion that the choice was between “2 futures” of Carter vs Reagan.

People had had enough, and pulled the lever for Reagan, who only needed to remind people that inflation was 13% with more than 8 million unemployed.

Even Bob Strauss, then head of the DNC stated, “the real world is all around us.”

matthew8787 on April 6, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I enjoy reading the comments here as l4l is being batted around like a catnip mouse in a den of cats. But I feel that whoever this person is they are a very pathetic individual. I have been looking for a job for awhile, luckily our car and all our debts are paid off, so no money problems, just being wise stewards of our finances and living within our means. I volunteer in a food pantry, homeless assistance center and clothing giveaway store. We on average last fall and in early winter, were seeing 45 to 50 families a week, coming in for food,clothing etc. Now we are seeing 75 to 90 families per week, and it continues to grow we did 110 families this week. So
in the best case scenario we are seeing a 55% increase of families in need.Talking to the people and the homeless guys, a vast majority want to work, 75 % of our workers are clients or have been clients. Many are skilled painters,roofers dry wallers, who had a good paying job that dried up when the housing market crashed. So as much as these liberal Obama shills want to paint the picture as not being bad, a lot of people, far more than they will admit are in desperate times. Obama is the POTUS, Bush isn’t ! So Mr President fix the $#@& problem not the &%$#@+ blame. I you can’t or won’t resign and get the he!! Out of our way.

stormridercx4 on April 6, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Del Dolemonte on April 6, 2012 at 11:06 AM

yes, Bishop and I mentioned this earlier. There is a double whammy about to unfold. The banks have a large inventory of foreclosures already on and sort of on (shadow inventory) and many more homes they have been stalling foreclosure on where the owner is many months in default.

It was reported that many homes have recently suffered a 30% decline in value. What will happen when all of these foreclosures and impending foreclosures hit the market?

House values will decline dramatically. Even more mortgages will go underwater.

Zero won’t be able to keep the real unemployment situation under wraps for long, either.

88 million workers no longer considered to be in the labor pool.

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The rate of women’s participation in the labor force fell from 57.9% to 57.7% this month. A year ago, the rate had been 58.1%.

The employment/population ratio for women fell from 53.2% to 53.1%, and had been 53.5% a year ago.

All of this brought to you by the Democrats’ War on Women Workers.

Good points all. But I would contemplate broadening to a Democratic War on All Americans, and include unemployment, gas prices, foreclosures, etc

matthew8787 on April 6, 2012 at 11:32 AM

What will happen when all of these foreclosures and impending foreclosures hit the market?

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Former President Obama will be on TV every day blaming the racist, homophobic GOP

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I wonder why the extremist on this blog arent crying about how these numbers are cooked? They sure were in February when the numbers were over 200K

I get it though- Good numbers cooked, bad numbers real. Pathetic.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 10:49 AM

OK, I’ll say it. The 120K number is inflated, not real. Cooked.

I hate to be labeled an inconsistent extremist.

Peri Winkle on April 6, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Stalin’s unemployment rate also went down. The same way. 50 million less workers.

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Interesting take.

Bmore on April 6, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Okay, any way you spin this, this is BAD news economically.

Not only did jobs growth end up being lower than the rate of population growth, but a ton of people dropped out of the workforce as well. This means more people taking advantage of government handouts, which accelerates debt, AND means that a real economic turnaround is going to be juuust a little bit harder. The longer somebody is outside the workforce, the more difficult it is for them to come back in and get rehired. That means that for the REAL unemployment rate to come down we’ll need a very strong recovery that forces employers to take on less than ideal employees due to sheer demand.

Cannot see that sort of hiring market within the next year.

WolvenOne on April 6, 2012 at 11:34 AM

We are being governed by economic illiterates: Obama, Biden, Pelosi and Reid.

These numbers are the direct result of their handiwork, and they shall own the consequences in November.

matthew8787 on April 6, 2012 at 11:35 AM

uncomfortable news for those rooting for America to fail since 2008

liberal4life on April 6, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Yup. Too bad Sketch and crew have no plans in place to help Americans find work.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 9:16 AM

..why don;t you two flamers get a room and spare the rest of the agony of enduring your written diarrhea.

The War Planner on April 6, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Unemployment reduction is nothing more than BS, a pack of lies.
And anyone who says differently is either a whacked out liberal,
has their own agenda, or is dumber than a box of rocks.

Amjean on April 6, 2012 at 11:38 AM

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that seasonally politically-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 8.2% from 8.3% last month, and the broader U-6 unemployment/underemployment rate dropped to 14.5% from 14.9%, while the economy added only 120,000 jobs overall and 121,000 jobs added in the private sector

(corrected headline for accuracy)

The BLS is publishing rosy, politically-motivated BS!! Even Krugman says the number of jobs we need to add is 300,000 per month: any less, and we’ll continue the decline.

And we’ve still got a substantial problem with the percentage of the population which is in the workforce, which indicates that the “official” unemployment numbers are flat-out wrong and/or misleading.

landlines on April 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

On a related topic:

Wages and the value of those wages is headed downhill. Real wages with the adjusted CPI-W:

http://blog.american.com/2012/04/if-obama-loses-in-november-itll-probably-be-because-of-this-chart/

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 11:46 AM

On a related topic:

Wages and the value of those wages is headed downhill. Real wages with the adjusted CPI-W:

http://blog.american.com/2012/04/if-obama-loses-in-november-itll-probably-be-because-of-this-chart/

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Hey Morgen, you want this one?

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 11:49 AM

landlines on April 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

To be accurate, Krugman said we would have had to add 300,000 jobs per month to reach full employment in 60 months – 5 years. The number of jobs added to maintain current status is in the 150,000 range. Others on this website have claimed 240,000, but I don’t know where that number is coming from; that may be the number to regain full employment in ten years??? If anyone knows, please help me out with a link.

topdog on April 6, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Speaking of Krugman, he is actually sometimes ahead of the curve. From his blog June 20, 2011:

Step back from the short-term news flow, and look at my favorite indicator these days, the employment-population ratio:

[shows now-familiar graph of employment-population ratio}

What you see isn’t a recovering economy that may be stumbling; you see an economy that has stopped its free fall, but hasn’t really been recovering at all.

I’d say that the burden of proof right now is on those who claim that we aren’t on track for a lost decade.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/20/our-lost-decade-relationship/
Funny, this never made the Opinion page./s

topdog on April 6, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Globex, until it closed at 10:00a.m. EST, was down 200 points.

Hope ‘n Change…balloony

Schadenfreude on April 6, 2012 at 12:03 PM

So the books continued to be cooked….

nazo311 on April 6, 2012 at 12:07 PM

9/11 happened under Bush
Recession happened under Bush

I think I’m seeing a pattern here. Do you?

liberal4life on April 6, 2012 at 9:43 AM

You have the political analysis ability of a two year old. It’s quite sad really, to see someone that blinded by their own political bias.

More than enough information has been presented in this thread, enough information to show you that these numbers aren’t an improvement, but you have your shallow little talking points and you never answer the people that take apart your miserable little assertions.

You are a coward, a mentally stunted coward.

ShadowsPawn on April 6, 2012 at 12:11 PM

To be accurate, Krugman said we would have had to add 300,000 jobs per month to reach full employment in 60 months – 5 years. The number of jobs added to maintain current status is in the 150,000 range. Others on this website have claimed 240,000, but I don’t know where that number is coming from; that may be the number to regain full employment in ten years??? If anyone knows, please help me out with a link.

topdog on April 6, 2012 at 11:55 AM

The +240K jobs per month is the minimum historical average that is needed to see sustained improvement in employment. I don’t recall that number being attached to a timetable on when that minimum effort would result in full employment.

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 12:27 PM

This is pure Obama adminstration spin; they think Americans are too dumb to do the math!

The real reason unemployment numbers are down?

The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.

phoebe1 on April 6, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Tens of millions of Americans continue slipping through the cracks, as the pro-Obama media continue massaging the jobs data. By hook or by crook, they need <8% and <$3.50/gal just prior to the election. The trick for them was to start doing this months ago and to do it gradually enough that people actually buy into the incessant, building reports that Obama is actually fixing the economy. Dems put their money on this tactic, because no blockbuster numbers were either forthcoming or credible.

Christien on April 6, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Yup. Too bad Sketch and crew have no plans in place to help Americans find work.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I have yet to see either side come up with anything besides their usual blame-gaming and whiny BS talking points. The average unemployed person is screwed no matter which one of them wins the next round of elections.

MelonCollie on April 6, 2012 at 12:39 PM

It’s going to be fun watching gas prices come down just before the election and the pro-Dem media falling over themselves trying to credit Chu and Obama.

Christien on April 6, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Obumbles: “We are proposing to Congress that the minimum hourly wage needs to be raised to $20 per hour. It’s the right thing to do- give the middle class more income. At the same time I’ve directed that new revenue enhancement rules be put into place immediately.”

OkieDoc on April 6, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Yet, MSM is trumpeting this as a tremendous achievement.

bw222 on April 6, 2012 at 12:42 PM

I know of 4 persons who lost their jobs just yesterday. These people had been “safe” since 2008.

This recovery is faltering. Period.

matthew8787 on April 6, 2012 at 12:44 PM

I have yet to see either side come up with anything besides their usual blame-gaming and whiny BS talking points. The average unemployed person is screwed no matter which one of them wins the next round of elections.

MelonCollie on April 6, 2012 at 12:39 PM

One statement i might have to agree with. Both sides will tell you whatever they need to get elected. Once elected, you are on your own.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:45 PM

My strong suspicion is that Steve understands these numbers as well as any of us do; the numbers themselves, regardless if its a D or R Admin issuing them, are incomplete, fuzzy, and uncertain. I much appreciate his attempt at an honest assessment, rather than endlessly repeating “Obama bad bad bad man.”

bobs1196 on April 6, 2012 at 11:07 AM

You must be on the wrong blog. Here its Obama bad bad bad man or you get banned.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:48 PM

The first chart at ZeroHedge about our “recovery” is devastating. Romney, here’s your first ad.

PattyJ on April 6, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Moonbats love unemployment – it leads to more robust numbers in the dependent class who rely on government handouts.

Philly on April 6, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Pure ignorance. I am yet to come across a sane person who loves to be unemployed. These kind of conservative extremist red meat statements aren’t shared by the general public.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:52 PM

In other news, I think we have once again fully-busted the myth that 375K/400K in weekly initial jobless claims signals anything resembling real employment growth.

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Zimbabwe was once the breadbasket of Africa and a fairly wealthy country. Then some folks decided to take from the rich and give to the deserving, according to their lovely ideology, and we all know what happened. It may take longer, because the US has such innate strength and wealth, but if they work at it, they can make it happen here.

It took a catastrophic war to stop the Great Depression. Maybe that’s what Ø is working toward.

jodetoad on April 6, 2012 at 12:54 PM

True unemployment figure closer to 15%. Someone tell Jay Carney and Obama.

Amazingoly on April 6, 2012 at 12:56 PM

One statement i might have to agree with. Both sides will tell you whatever they need to get elected. Once elected, you are on your own.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Bush had some failings, but his tax cuts improved the economy considerably. When they expire shortly and if we don’t reduce the US corporate tax rate, 88 million will look like a day at the beach.

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Doc: “Bob, the good news. You are bleeding less”

Bob: “What’s the bad news”

Doc: “You’re almost out of blood”

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Doc: “Bob, the good news. You are bleeding less”

Bob: “What’s the bad news”

Doc: “You’re almost out of blood”

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Comment of the Day™

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 1:13 PM

In an election year-no doubt that fudged unemployment rates will be fudged even further. The recovery remains sluggish-or nonexistent.

MaiDee on April 6, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Americans aren’t losing more jobs? this is terrible news for patriots!

DBear on April 6, 2012 at 1:26 PM

stormridercx4 on April 6, 2012 at 11:28 AM

it’s terrible the Bush economic crash left you in this position. Then again you need to realize that the GOP doesn’t care about you at all they would cut your benefits to 2 weeks if they could. the only way the right would care about you is if you were a fetus.

DBear on April 6, 2012 at 1:31 PM

One more piece of bad economic news from James Pethokoukis (or at least bad political news for Teh SCOAMF):

It was $161 billion in all of 2007 | Barclays: We now project the federal deficit to be $195bn in March

A $195 billion March deficit would also break the March deficit record of $192 billion set in March 2009. A small part of that (probably around $15 billion) will likely be due to accelerating certain payments usually made on the 1st day of the month to March 30 due to April 1 being a Sunday.

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 1:36 PM

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 1:10 PM

All too true.

MelonCollie on April 6, 2012 at 1:41 PM

DOOM!: Unexpectedly

Gladtobehere on April 6, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Doc: “Bob, the good news. You are bleeding less”

Bob: “What’s the bad news”

Doc: “You’re almost out of blood”

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 1:10 PM

There’s an old surgical saying, “All bleeding eventually stops”.

eyedoc on April 6, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Zimbabwe was once the breadbasket of Africa and a fairly wealthy country. Then some folks decided to take from the rich educated whites and give to the deserving ignorant black terrorists, according to their lovely ideology, and we all know what happened. It may take longer, because the US has such innate strength and wealth, but if they work at it, they can make it happen here.

jodetoad on April 6, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Fixed. Zimbabwe wasn’t garden-variety socialism like you’ll find all over in Europe. It was robbery plain and simple, and once the redistribution was over, the new recipients of ‘fairness’ found out they didn’t have a God-blessed clue how to run things.

MelonCollie on April 6, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Americans aren’t losing more jobs? this is terrible news for patriots!

DBear on April 6, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Passing off one of KeninCT’s thee repeated lines as your own is not where you want to want to be in life, son.

Chuck Schick on April 6, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Pure ignorance. I am yet to come across a sane person who loves to be unemployed. These kind of conservative extremist red meat statements aren’t shared by the general public.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:52 PM

You need to get out more, son.

HeatSeeker2011 on April 6, 2012 at 1:56 PM

And liberal Americans still think Obambam is a smart guy. Reality based!

sheikh of thornton on April 6, 2012 at 2:01 PM

There are 100 policies that Obama has dictated to the country this past month that have led to more hiring in the private sector than all the presidents before him.

Suck it cons!

tom daschle concerned on April 6, 2012 at 10:20 AM

You’ve been taking Lanceman lessons.

Lanceman on April 6, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Here its Obama bad bad bad man or you get banned.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:48 PM

A flat out lie.

You really have to try to get banned here, garden variety leftist stupidity simply doesn’t cut it.

Rebar on April 6, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Pure ignorance. I am yet to come across a sane person who loves to be unemployed. These kind of conservative extremist red meat statements aren’t shared by the general public.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 12:52 PM

lol. The only pure ignorance is emanating from you. Ever heard of Pauline Kael?

Seems to me that you’re also implying that the vast numbers of (Democrat) people in Democrat Institutionalized Ghettos like Detroit and New Orleans who happily suckle at the welfare teat year after year are Insane. Can we quote you on that?

Del Dolemonte on April 6, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Yup. Too bad Sketch and crew have no plans in place to help Americans find work.

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Sure they do- undo everything they can from the past 3 years and go from there.

Not even the NY Times is trying the silly spin you guys are hurling:

Jobs Report Tempers Hopes of Accelerating U.S. Recovery

By MOTOKO RICH
Published: April 6, 2012

Although signs had pointed to a strengthening economy earlier this year, the jobs report on Friday came with a message: don’t get ahead of yourself.

The country’s employers added a disappointing 120,000 jobs in March, about half the gains posted in each of the preceding three months. The unemployment rate, which comes from a separate survey of households rather than employers, slipped to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent, as a lower portion of the population were looking for work.

The slowdown suggests that employers remain cautious about hiring as they digest the impact of rising gas prices and uncertainty about healthcare and pensions costs.

Obama’s policies are directly adding to higher gas prices, healthcare and pension shortfalls. No question about it. This harms job and wage growth.

Chuck Schick on April 6, 2012 at 2:08 PM

To be accurate, Krugman said we would have had to add 300,000 jobs per month to reach full employment in 60 months – 5 years. The number of jobs added to maintain current status is in the 150,000 range. Others on this website have claimed 240,000, but I don’t know where that number is coming from; that may be the number to regain full employment in ten years??? If anyone knows, please help me out with a link.

topdog on April 6, 2012 at 11:55 AM

And of course, all that presupposes that layoffs stop completely.
And this crap about all those people who have ‘given up’ looking for work is pure hogwash. People don’t ‘quit’ looking for work. People can reach the end of unemployment benefits.
There are some instances where I am competing with an average of 150 applicants for one job. Sometimes from significant distances away. If not for the fact that my independent contracting has seen me through, and had I been on unemployment compensation, I would have run out of benefits a year ago.

Lanceman on April 6, 2012 at 2:12 PM

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to March, 2012:

Jan. 2009:

Civilian labour force: 153,716m
Employed: 142,099m
Unemployed: 11,616m
Not in labour force: 81,023m
Participation Rate: 65.5%
Unemployment rate: 7.6%

March 2012

Civilian labour force: 154,707m
Employed: 142,034m
Unemployed: 12,673m
Not in labour force: 87,897m
Participation rate: 63.8%
Unemployment rate: 8.2%

Change:

Civilian labour force: +.64%
Employed: – 4.58%
Unemployed: + 8.34%
Not in labour force: + 7.82%
Participation rate: – 2.67%
Unemployment rate: + 7.31%

Resist We Much on April 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

The +240K jobs per month is the minimum historical average that is needed to see sustained improvement in employment. I don’t recall that number being attached to a timetable on when that minimum effort would result in full employment.

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 12:27 PM

I have crunched some numbers, and what I found confirms the rule-of-thumb:
150,000 new jobs per month are required just to maintain constant rates of employment.
During the sustained growth from 12/92 to 12/99 we grew at an average rate of 185,000 jobs per month.
During the fastest 12 months of growth since 1976, from 5/83 to 5/84, we added an average of 462,583 jobs per month! (Coincidentally, it was in’83 that we first reached our current employment level of 58.5%, so in that sense we are back where we were 29 years ago, so if only we could elect Reagan again…..)
To regain the 12/07 employment-population ratio of 64.4% we would have to add 11.8 million jobs total, plus 150,000 more jobs per month. To do this in 10 years would require adding on average 248,000 jobs per month, so maybe that is where the 240,000 number comes from, so it is also a good rule of thumb:
240,000 new jobs per month are required to recover in ten years.
To regain the 12/07 employment level in 5 years would require 346,000 new jobs per month.

topdog on April 6, 2012 at 2:28 PM

That Right Wing mouthpiece Reuters is badmouthing the wonderful job reports too!

Weak U.S. Jobs Data Could Hit Global Stocks Next Week
Reuters

World stock markets look poised to fall in the days ahead following a disappointing reading on payrolls in the United States. More »

Chuck Schick on April 6, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Jobs Report: The Beginning of a Disappointing Trend?
By Daniel Gross | Contrary Indicator – 4 hours ago

It’s a good thing the stock market isn’t open Friday. If it were, the disappointing March employment report, a rare piece of negative economic news this spring, would likely have caused stocks to nosedive. As it was, U.S. stock futures (which were open) slipped, the dollar is falling and Treasury prices are spiking on the report.

Chuck Schick on April 6, 2012 at 2:45 PM

a disappointing reading

hahaha

Try it with more gusto next time.

faraway on April 6, 2012 at 2:46 PM

More Lies from the Obastard administration!?! Anyone who actually believes this horsecrap MUST BE A DUMMYCRAT!?!

Colatteral Damage on April 6, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Change (from 1/2009 to 3/2012):

Civilian labour force: +.64%
Employed: –4.58%
Unemployed: +8.34%
Not in labour force: +7.82%
Participation rate: –2.67%
Unemployment rate: +7.31%

Resist We Much on April 6, 2012 at 2:17 PM

One more comparison for you – Those not in the labor force but who want a job now:

January 2009: 5,682,000
March 2012: 6,299,000
Change: +10.86%

Hope, change, chronic unemployment.

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM

O’bama Cheerleaders C-BS Radio “News”, at 3 PM EDT:

“Economists are NOT celebrating.”

Del Dolemonte on April 6, 2012 at 3:02 PM

“Economists are NOT celebrating.”

Del Dolemonte on April 6, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Del hates America!

Chuck Schick on April 6, 2012 at 3:05 PM

The mortgage problem is due to the hold-up on foreclosures due to the robo-signing “scandal” which is rewarding deadbeats and governments improperly over a technicality. But until the shakedown of the big banks was complete, all their foreclosures were on hold.

Foreclosures which were pending will be coming on the market, depressing prices even more. Several real estate sites expect no better than flat prices until 2016 as the market catches up with the inventory.

As expected, foreclosure “starts” – the first legal move to notice foreclosure on delinquent notes – are up around 25% year-to-year for January. We have a long way to go.

Adjoran on April 6, 2012 at 3:06 PM

On employment, we need a NET job creation of 150,000 per month to deal with the normal expansion of the workforce and make up for those who leave through retirement, death, maternity leave, and lottery winnings.

Typically in a recovery we would be in the 240-300K per month NET job creation. This has been the worst recovery ever, at least in part because businesses are afraid to expand since there is no way to predict what a new hire will actually cost under ObamaCare and other socialist regulations, or what crazy regs they will impose in a second term.

Corporations are sitting on over $1 trillion in retained earnings already, but it would be irresponsible to invest in expansion while the Marxists are in charge.

Adjoran on April 6, 2012 at 3:11 PM

“Economists are NOT celebrating.”

Del Dolemonte on April 6, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Del hates America!

Chuck Schick on April 6, 2012 at 3:05 PM

No, bayam’s beloved economists do. Gotta love it.

Del Dolemonte on April 6, 2012 at 3:19 PM

Steve Eggleston on April 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Thanks. Just pitiful. Isn’t it?

Resist We Much on April 6, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Durbin Says We MUST Buy Hybrid Cars Because Of Tornadoes: “It’s Your Money Or Your Life”

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/04/06/durbin_on_spending_to_fight_global_warming_its_your_money_or_your_life.html

Q1: Dick, why were there tornadoes before there were automobiles?

Q2: Dick, don’t you think an “individual mandate” would solve the problem?

(Yes, yes, yes! I know. You scoffed when we raised such an idea in relation to the IM in Obamacare, but if Americans “must” buy hybrids and you know best…)

Resist We Much on April 6, 2012 at 3:44 PM

here is some new news from reuters he is president Downgrade sheesh

Egan-Jones cuts U.S. rating (based) on debt burden (AA — now only 3rd highest rating)

Conservative4ev on April 6, 2012 at 3:50 PM

90,000 of the 120,000 jobs were magically and statistically created by the Birth/Death model. In other words, 90k of the 120k jobs don’t have a physical address.

The UE Rate declined .1% because those not in the labor force rose by 2,289,000. And not due to job creation.

Pretty miserable report.

voiceofreason on April 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Uppereastside on April 6, 2012

I know you would rather be a snarky jerk than an honest one but we told you Obamanomics would not work that is all. My family has been hit by this recession so quit with your BS.

CW on April 6, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Two and a half years ago I posted on HA about the unemployment tipping point. This occurs when the number of unemployed people continues to hamper real recovery and in fact begins to grow steadily worse like a snowball rolling downhill.

Today Robert Reich wrote this:

Remember: Consumer spending is 70 percent of the economy. Employers won’t hire without enough sales to justify the additional hires. It’s up to consumers to make it worth their while.

But real spending (adjusted to remove price changes) this year hasn’t been going anywhere. It increased just .5 percent in February after an anemic .2 percent increase in January.

The reason consumers aren’t spending more is they don’t have the money.

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-todays-job-numbers-mean-2012-4

While I do disagree with many of his conclusions, it is startling to me that a very left leaning guy like this has some accurate observations about what is going on.

With the cost of gas and food these days and with more and more people filing for unemployment every week, we are headed for a real catastrophe.

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

With the cost of gas and food these days and with more and more people filing for unemployment every week, we are headed for a real catastrophe.

dogsoldier on April 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Child we need more inflation. Sheesh

//

CW on April 6, 2012 at 6:59 PM

But I heard on ABC News tonight that they added 200k jobs. What gives?/

chewmeister on April 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

I dont get it. If everyone is out of work why is Apple making record profits and people are lining up around the block for new tennis shoes?

Politricks on April 6, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Been going through the various possible circumstances that could potentially affect the economy over the coming year in one direction or another.

It seems to me that there are a multitude of factors that could send the economy spiraling further into the abyss, but not many that could help it.

First there are the obvious and likely unavoidable circumstances, high oil prices, rising food prices, declining home prices, declining exports, and economic instability in both Europe and Asia.

Then there are the less obvious circumstances, or perhaps its more accurate to say, aggravating circumstances.

China’s exports have fallen dramatically both because of Europes economic woes, and because Americans too are more reluctant to buy cheap goods. However, until now China’s markets were staying somewhat afloat on the hope that America would slowly recover over the course of the year and compensate for lost exports to Europe. Conversely, Europe’s dysfunctional monetary situation has been held somewhat in check by America and China’s apparent semi-stability. America’s faltering economic numbers however are likely to set up a chain reaction however, destabilizing China’s economic situation and Europes monetary/debt situation.

Of course, I’m no economics export, I try but my understanding is incomplete at best, so I imagine I’m overlooking something.

WolvenOne on April 7, 2012 at 12:25 AM

it’s terrible the Bush economic crash left you in this position. Then again you need to realize that the GOP doesn’t care about you at all they would cut your benefits to 2 weeks if they could. the only way the right would care about you is if you were a fetus.

Man you liberals are beyond dirt stupid, Bush had nothing to do with my not having a job. I didn’t say I lost my job, I left voluntarily as all my kids are grown and gone, so I took an early out and let a guy with a family stay employed. I said I was looking for a job. Career Change I think they call it. Are all these new people who are coming into the food pantry also Bush’s fault? And as far as the Democratic Party you can all go to he!!, I remember the way we were treated when we came home from Viet Nam. Just so you remember JFK got us involved. LBJ ramped up the troop levels, got a bunch of my friends killed. And dirt bag John Kerry testified we were all “baby killers” while Jane Fonda was kissing up to the communists Oh and all those wonderful people were Democrats. I find it rather funny that you say the GOP doesn’t care, I didn’t ask them to care. I can stand on my own two feet, be successful and run my life just fine.

stormridercx4 on April 7, 2012 at 2:05 AM

Just wait….

Next couple of months “Summer hiring” begins. The inevitable “lower jobless number” will come out.

Seasonal hiring. But then, they almost all will be out of jobs in September. Just in time for unemployment to “rise” again.

Not a valid way to measure, but this administration does “vapid” not valid.

ProfShadow on April 7, 2012 at 7:39 AM

Next couple of months “Summer hiring” begins. The inevitable “lower jobless number” will come out.

ProfShadow on April 7, 2012 at 7:39 AM

People aren’t spending money, so that summer hiring probably won’t amount to much. Zero gave us the new term, “Staycation.”

dogsoldier on April 7, 2012 at 9:30 AM

If you all read this, you will understand why I harp on the DoL:

http://freebeacon.com/department-of-propaganda/

FTA:

Labor Department puts up leftist motivational posters at taxpayer expense

Government-financed political propaganda at the Department of Labor is causing discomfort for some employees.

Signs posted in at least 20 DOL elevators depict Secretary Hilda Solis carrying a bullhorn and rallying alongside the Rev. Al Sharpton, the Free Beacon has learned. Next to the pictures is a quote from Solis that reads in part: “We all march in our own way.”

“Whether we take to the streets or simply do our work with integrity and commitment here at the U.S. Department of Labor… we are all marching toward the same goals: safe workplaces, fair pay, dignity of the job, secure retirement, and opportunities to make a better life,” the poster states.

It concludes with a call to action.

Emphasis mine. The article will give you shudders about conditions inside the DoL.

These are the people who provide unemployment and wage data.

dogsoldier on April 7, 2012 at 11:24 AM

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