Romney leads Santorum by five in Pennsylvania

posted at 9:50 am on April 5, 2012 by Tina Korbe

In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, Rick Santorum still had a comfortable six-point lead over Mitt Romney in his home state of Pennsylvania. A new Public Policy Polling survey, though, shows Mitt Romney with a five-point lead over the former Pennsylvania senator.

Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

Pennsylvania Republicans are expressing major doubts about Santorum’s viability both in the primary and the general election. Only 36% of GOP voters think Santorum has a realistic chance at the nomination to 54% who believe he does not. And when it comes to matching up against Barack Obama in the fall only 24% of Republicans think Santorum would provide their best chance for a victory while 49% think that designation belongs to Romney.

Santorum’s favorability numbers haven’t really changed from a month ago. He was at 64/30 and now he’s at 62/31. But Romney’s seen quite a bit of improvement in his image, perhaps reflecting growing acceptance that he will be the nominee. His favorability has improved a net 16 points from +6 (46/40) to +22 (57/35).

Romney retains comfortable leads among seniors, men, “somewhat conservative” voters, moderates and suburban voters — and he’s made huge dents in Santorum’s leads among evangelicals, Tea Party voters and “very conservative” voters. As the PPP poll summary states, the race is still a close one, so Santorum could yet win — but the momentum favors Mitt Romney.

The real question, though, is this: Will Santorum risk a loss? With that devastating 18-point loss in the 2006 Senate race already on his record, will he want even a narrow defeat in his home state to be the next addition to his Wikipedia page? His rhetoric in recent days — particularly his invocations of the fighting spirit of Ronald Reagan, who lost his first bid at the presidential nomination — suggest he’d consider another run at the presidency in 2016. If he ducks out before a loss in Pennsylvania, he’d be an immediate contender in 2016, remembered as the man who gave Mitt Romney a real race. If he loses Pennsylvania, he might not be a contender at all in 2016, remembered as the man who held on too long.

A friend of the Santorum family suggests Santorum does not want to be remembered as that guy:

But one of Santorum’s close friends told The Hill that while the former Pennsylvania senator remains confident about winning his home state and using that to build May momentum, if that confidence falters, he might exit the race. Pennsylvania state Sen. Jake Corman (R), a longtime friend of Santorum and his family, said if it appeared Santorum wasn’t going to win the state, the former senator could drop his campaign.

“He’s a realist; he doesn’t have his head in the clouds,” Corman told The Hill. “As long as he sees a pathway to the nomination he’s going to stay in it, but he won’t stay in it to prove a point. If he gets to the point where he doesn’t think he’ll be the nominee, he’ll get out.”

(Meanwhile, James Carville calls Rick Santorum a “headless chicken.”)

The Santorum campaign’s own internal polling might show a different race in Pennsylvania, such that the candidate will compete regardless of what polls like this one suggest. If this is an accurate reflection of the state of the race in the Keystone State, though, I’d be surprised if Santorum hasn’t at least considered rethinking his “stay in until May at all costs” strategy.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Game over

liberal4life on April 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Mittbots everywhere rejoice!

yhxqqsn on April 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Sweater Vestistas hardest hit.

Oil Can on April 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

10 bucks says he will keep running. HIs ego is almost as big as obama’s and he thinks Mitt is going to have to offer him the VP.

aniptofar on April 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

and he’s made huge dents in Santorum’s leads among evangelicals, Tea Party voters and “very conservative” voters.

That’s a tremendous problem for Santorum. He’s relied on evangelicals, Tea Party folks, and assorted Not Romney supporters to pull him through elsewhere. And since PA is a closed primary, he can’t stanch the bleeding with crossover Democrats any more. And if Romney ramps up his operations in PA, expect these numbers to shift even more.

Any reasonable person should see the handwriting on the wall. Will Rick?

KingGold on April 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

U mad, Tina?

I know he’s your chosen, preferred candidate and all that.

Vyce on April 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Game over

liberal4life on April 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

…come on staff…knock it off!

KOOLAID2 on April 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

PPP is not trustworthy. They don’t get the demographics right. Does anyone know if only 23% of the republican primary voters in PA will be Tea Party? The questions presume Gingrich is out, I don’t know if that is how PA is looking at it…

And favorability in PA, might be an unfair question to people who expected more from Santorum but were dissappointed in the past.

Let’s see another survey, this Romney supporter won’t be lulled by reading false positives in the liberal press from liberal polling groups.

Fleuries on April 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

The Santorum campaign’s own internal polling might show a different race in Pennsylvania,

Do the internals show Pennsylvania awarding 400 delegates as well?

Zaggs on April 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

The Santorum campaign’s own internal polling might show a different race

Are we sure Team Sweatervest is doing internal polls? How much money does he have left?

CNH_320 on April 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

His rhetoric in recent days — particularly his invocations of the fighting spirit of Ronald Reagan, who lost his first bid at the presidential nomination — suggest he’d consider another run at the presidency in 2016. If he ducks out before a loss in Pennsylvania, he’d be an immediate contender in 2016, remembered as the man who gave Mitt Romney a real race. If he loses Pennsylvania, he might not be a contender at all in 2016, remembered as the man who held on too long.

I hope people(especially Santorum) don’t throw out the year 2016 so cavalierly when he inevitably drops out of the race. I’d like to think we’re firmly behind Mittens as the nominee and are actually trying to help him win instead of looking ahead to the GOP primaries in 4 years which presumes Obama wins reelection.

Doughboy on April 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

His 4 days off will hopefully give him the space to really think things over!

CoffeeLover on April 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

If Rick can’t take his own State…that’s not good!

KOOLAID2 on April 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Will dragging Mitt over the finish line be better or worse than dragging ‘my friends’ over the finish line?

tom daschle concerned on April 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

What? Only a five point lead? Yesterday some clown on television was saying that Mitt had something like a 23 point lead in Pennsylvania. I guess victory is all in how you cook your statistics, or else the situation is insanely volatile. Looks like we might even have to wait for the primary./

Scriptor on April 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Um, isn’t this a PPP (Daily Kook)Poll? Just sayin…

Pqlyur1 on April 5, 2012 at 9:58 AM

What would Santorum say? This is BullSh**! Sorry, Rick, it’s not. How about a graceful exit and lets start pounding on Obama? Take one for the team, Rick?

rhombus on April 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Bow to your Mormon Overlord!

Wags on April 5, 2012 at 10:01 AM

PA has already spoken of its love for Santorum – NOT !!

jake-the-goose on April 5, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Just end it already.

Spannerhead on April 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

The biggest gain Santorum could have gotten out of this race was to show himself to be a formidable Senate candidate, but he wasn’t on the ballot in Virginia, where he now lives, and is in danger of losing Pennsylvania where he had been Senator. He should have congratulated Romney after Wisconsin and pledged his support, but poor Rick was too busy burning his bridges to stop. The recently announced 4 day break in his campaign may signal an awareness finally creeping in, or it might be just a ploy to conserve money for one final push.

claudius on April 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

It’s more than a little optimistic to think that by dropping out of the race now, Santorum would be an “immediate contender” in 2016. He’s still going to be an obnoxious, know it all that overstayed his welcome far into the 2012 race. He’s done.

BettyRuth on April 5, 2012 at 10:04 AM

The inevitable is upon us. Nice run, though, Rick.

On to victory over BHO in November.

bntafraid on April 5, 2012 at 10:04 AM

When is Santorum going to get the message?

Get lost. It’s over.

The only reason you’ve gone this far is because of the talk-show crowd and this.

Go sign your fat Fox News contract and live happily ever after. Congratulations, you’ve earned it.

Now go away. We need to get rid of Barry and you’re not helping.

NoDonkey on April 5, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Romney retains comfortable leads among seniors, men, “somewhat conservative” voters, moderates and suburban voters — and he’s made huge dents in Santorum’s leads among evangelicals, Tea Party voters and “very conservative” voters.

If Romney is winning the suburban voters, he would have a much better chance of winning PA against Obama than would Santorum. Philly, Erie, and to a lesser extent Pittsburgh, are Democrat bastions, and while rural PA is solid red. Elections in PA are won or lost in the suburbs around Philly, and the mid-size Susquehanna Valley cities (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton). If the suburban voters support Romney over Santorum now, they will prefer him over Obama in November, and Romney could win PA, if he can limit his losses in Philly and win big in the suburbs.

Steve Z on April 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

Well, gee, a month ago it still looked like there might be a race. Now, it’s pretty much over and many voters in PA sense that. Might as well back the winning horse at this point.

Bitter Clinger on April 5, 2012 at 10:07 AM

His new line of clothing “The Ego Vest”. Superman may defy gravity, but with the ego vest you can defy all logic.

hanzblinx on April 5, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Tina, on what magic cloud do you live? Santorum has a staff of 5 and stays at motel 6. You actually think his campaign can afford a 60k poll?

rubberneck on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Um, PPP called Wisconsin perfectly.

Rusty Allen on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Over the last 3 months Romney haters and lovers have both loved and hated PPP depending on what result it had.

if the poll shows your candidate ahead its good.

If the poll shows your candidate behind its bad.

After careful analysis I’ve decided we’re all lemmings chasing after polls.

Gerry-mittbot-moderate-lemminmg

gerrym51 on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Gonna get worse for Rick. He probably ends up losing PA by 18% or more.

22044 on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

PA Polls:

PPP (D) 4/4 – 4/4 403 LV 37 42 9 6 Romney +5
Quinnipiac 3/27 – 4/1 647 LV 41 35 10 7 Santorum +6
Franklin & Marshall 3/20 – 3/25 505 RV 30 28 9 6 Santorum +2

I don’t see how it’s going to get better for Santorum. Even if he squeeks by with a win in PA, he’ll be overwhelmed by losses in NY, CT and RI which will influence people in those May primaries he’s now counting on. People are generally tired of this and want to get on with the real election.

rhombus on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I hope Santorum will bow out before the PA primary. It would be best for him. Why go through the humiliation of losing his home state? Better to bow out now and preserve his chacnes for 2016.

dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

gerrym51 on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM
gerry-mittbot-poll chaser.

Rusty Allen on April 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Seriously, Santorum needs to leave with his dignity intact, losing Pennsylvania yet again would destroy his career. Leave with dignity, have a future career, lose your home state, never be heard from again. Its really that simple. Hope this break hes taking over Easter someone will talk sense into him. I’m a Romney supporter, always have been, but I don’t dislike this guy and hope he does the right thing for himself and the party.

nswider on April 5, 2012 at 10:11 AM

“Leave!” -Dr. Leo Marvin

EddieC on April 5, 2012 at 10:12 AM

It seems to me that the time to withdraw gracefully has passed unless he wins PA. If he loses he’ll be judged a two time loser. If he withdraws now we’ll all know that it was because he was about to become a two time loser. He passed on his opportunity to withdraw after WI, and now he has to run and win in PA. If he does, he will have another opportunity to withdraw gracefully. But surely he realizes by now that he is not going to win this thing, it’s not going to a brokered convention, and if it did, he’s not going to win this thing.

Either he’s a dim bulb or he feels he’s called of God to serve in the capacity of President. Either way it does not reflect well.

rogaineguy on April 5, 2012 at 10:12 AM

The Not-Romney’s created this monster so now they can live with it.

RINO on April 5, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Better to bow out now and preserve his chacnes for 2016.

dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I can of much better candidates if there is an 2016. My money is that Mitt will win the general election. We have another debt ceiling and Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare.

It’s over for the Chicago Jesus.

Oil Can on April 5, 2012 at 10:14 AM

After careful analysis I’ve decided we’re all lemmings chasing after polls.

Gerry-mittbot-moderate-lemminmg

gerrym51 on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Yeah, I’m sick of hearing about polls. They have little relevance till you get to the last few days before an actual election. So many things on the ground can occur to wildly affect polls. We’ve seen this repeatedly in this primary cycle. Polls are pretty much not news until the week leading into an election.

Bitter Clinger on April 5, 2012 at 10:15 AM

“Eek”

What would Tina do if the primary were over? No more or would she find more Romney bashing? Anyways, she can still find more and more polls by the likes of the Pennsylvania Junior High and the Penn High Schools to trumpet anything to keep it going.

bumsteaddithers on April 5, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Would he really be that serious a contender in ’16, though? He’s a second tier candidate who became Romney’s main rival basically through attrition…most of his support seems to be based on the fact he’s the last viable NotRomney standing, nothing more. He seems more like a one and done candidate to me.

changer1701 on April 5, 2012 at 10:18 AM

PA voters are the ones who already overwhelmingly rejected Santorum – what’s changed for them to like him better since 2006? They’re the ones who know he’s not a small government guy, and that he’s anti-libertarian. They know he’s a social issues-focused guy, not an economics focused guy.

My guess is that in earlier polling – when he looked like a possibility – PA voters supported Santorum to pollsters kind of like delegations used to support a ‘favorite son’ on the first ballot of a convention. Now, it’s getting down to time to vote for the guy who can win the nomination and the election.

CatoRenasci on April 5, 2012 at 10:18 AM

It’s over for the Chicago Jesus.

Oil Can on April 5, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I hope you are right but I am not optimistic. Romney was always a weak candidate and he is much weaker after a rough primary. After the mud they’ve slung, Santorum and Gingrich are not likely to rally around the nominee which means they are not going to be out campaigning and energizing people during the general election. In fact, I can see Newt running around this fall publicly undermining Romney.

We’re in for an ugly campaign, made uglier by the petty vindictiveness of the losing candidates. I just have a hard time seeing us prevail in November. But I pray God it happens.

dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Would he really be that serious a contender in ’16, though? He’s a second tier candidate who became Romney’s main rival basically through attrition…most of his support seems to be based on the fact he’s the last viable NotRomney standing, nothing more. He seems more like a one and done candidate to me.

I think Santorum’s Buchanan-light(weight) and will never be a serious candidate.

CatoRenasci on April 5, 2012 at 10:19 AM

gerrym51 on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Well,….yeah! Most of us want our own version of the Big Rock Candy Mountain.- and are just searching for the guy to give it to us. Not me. I only want to vote for a winner. That’s why I always support only the guy leading in the polls on any particular day. I’ve had to change candidates many times during the primary, but being able to chortle about voting for a winner is very important to me.:)

a capella on April 5, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Get lost. It’s over.
NoDonkey on April 5, 2012 at 10:05 AM

How about a graceful exit and lets start pounding on Obama?
rhombus on April 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

I hope Santorum will bow out before the PA primary.
dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Why not just have the primary and when it’s over, count the votes?

You Willard cultists don’t understand that it’s childish to demand an end to the contest before it’s over. If your man sems to be winning, be happy.

What you’re doing now only adds to the revulsion and distaste most Americans have for Willard. We see that his followers are creeps and poor sports and don’t know how to be gracious winners.

And, of course, the quotes I’ve excerpted above are also the type of thing designed to discourage the other side and suppress turnout.

Yes, this will be an ugly election, and the ugliest part will be how the Democrats turn Willard into a punching bag. Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Buh Bye

Pablo Honey on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

There is no upside for Santorum.

If he wins PA, it would build no momentum because it’s his home state (yawn).

If he loses, his future is damaged.

I’m glad to see that Santorum is taking a few days off from the trail. I think he’ll do some soul searching and suspend his campaign.

sheryl on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Steady Eddie
Sweater vest sweaty
Thinks of what could have been
No more porn or birth control
Stead Eddie didn’t win

Rusty Allen on April 5, 2012 at 10:23 AM

I was at a Romney Event in Suburban Philly last night….it was HUGE! Great turnout…..Better than McCain/Palin in Sept’08. Even considering that the McCain event was in downtown Media and scheduled long in advance.

Bob Asher is the most popular Republican in PA (Yes, more popular than Toomney and Corbett), he is with Mitt 100% and so are we.

I voted for Santo in 2006 even though he ran against a Pro-Life Moderate in Casey Jr.
I will not be voting for Santo EVER again. I watched his entire career. He is a RINO with strong SoCon cred. Romney is the Fiscal Con WE WANT

ROMNEY2012
Its Mitt or lose the SCOTUS for 100 years

corujodp on April 5, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Santorum has a staff of 5 and stays at motel 6. You actually think his campaign can afford a 60k poll?

rubberneck on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM

You forgot to mention that he bowls nearly every night. Do you suppose he is “Bowling for Dollars”? I think his ‘internal’ poll is exactly that, it is a poll of his staff of 5 and still barely comes out ahead of Romney.

lhuffman34 on April 5, 2012 at 10:26 AM

There will be better candidates than Santorum in 2016 or 2020. We’re going to have 32 or 33 governors after this election, most of them will be more qualified for President than him.

22044 on April 5, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Would he really be that serious a contender in ’16, though? He’s a second tier candidate who became Romney’s main rival basically through attrition…most of his support seems to be based on the fact he’s the last viable NotRomney standing, nothing more. He seems more like a one and done candidate to me.

changer1701 on April 5, 2012 at 10:18 AM

No, he wouldn’t. Rest assured, if Romney blows this, the Republican bigwigs will have to cave to the Tea Party and the conservative wing of the GOP and allow a far more right-leaning and appealing candidate to emerge in 2016. Someone like Rubio, Ryan, West, Jindal, etc. No more of this crap where they feed us who they believe is the most electable Republican because more often than not, they’re way off on those predictions.

Doughboy on April 5, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Santorum has a staff of 5 and stays at motel 6. You actually think his campaign can afford a 60k poll?
rubberneck on April 5, 2012 at 10:09 AM
60k? Where did that number come from? :)

Rusty Allen on April 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Will dragging Mitt over the finish line be better or worse than dragging ‘my friends’ over the finish line?

tom daschle concerned on April 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

That depends. Do your friends at least appreciate it? Do your friends act like ingrates? Do your friends ever say thanks? Are your friends just abusive small minded spoilsports? Do your friends lack basic modesty and humility? Do your friends make you feel good for helping? Or do your friends make you wish you had left them behind? Depends on the nature of the friends I guess.

Bmore on April 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Rick didn’t get enough face time in the debates. Paul and Romney were conspiring against him. Romney has too much money. Romney is saying bad things about him. The Democrats are voting for Romney for spite. Drudge is in the bag for Romney. Fox News is in the bag for Romney.

I am so sick of Rick the whining loser. He makes me want to puke.

entropent on April 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The fact that it is even close in Santorum’s home state should give people pause. Santorum has been calling PA a “must win” but the fact is that even if Santorum is able to pull out a squeaker in PA, that is just as bad for him. Romney won MA by about 60 points. Newt won GA by at least 20. If Santorum can’t do at least as well in his home state that’s pretty pathetic.

Dark Star on April 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

And what makes you think he can afford a motel 6?

Rusty Allen on April 5, 2012 at 10:29 AM

The Willard zombies are about to remind me that if you don’t vote for Willard, we’ll have another four years of Obama.

I would remind them if you do vote for Willard, we’re still going to have another four years of Obama.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:30 AM

That depends. Do your friends at least appreciate it? Do your friends act like ingrates? Do your friends ever say thanks? Are your friends just abusive small minded spoilsports? Do your friends lack basic modesty and humility? Do your friends make you feel good for helping? Or do your friends make you wish you had left them behind? Depends on the nature of the friends I guess.

Bmore on April 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I think he’s referring to John McCain, but correct me if I’m wrong.

22044 on April 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

What you’re doing now only adds to the revulsion and distaste most Americans have for Willard. We see that his followers are creeps and poor sports and don’t know how to be gracious winners.

And, of course, the quotes I’ve excerpted above are also the type of thing designed to discourage the other side and suppress turnout.

Yes, this will be an ugly election, and the ugliest part will be how the Democrats turn Willard into a punching bag. Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

From your own words, you don’t sound like you know how to be gracious so why would anyone think you know what you’re talking about smearing others for that trait, or lack thereof.

Also, Obama & Axelrod have already been trying to punch at Mitt, they’ve spent millions trying to defeat him in the primary (unprecedented for a sitting president to do) so they don’t have to face him the general election.

Romney, and I think (hope) that he names Ryan his VP the second he gets the delegates…..will make Obama & Axelrod very afraid.

It will be a contest between Obama who thinks he’s the smartest man in the room versus Romney the man who IS the smartest man in the room.

sheryl on April 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

GOP leaders in Pennsylvania DESPISE RICK SANTORUM. He has alienated them for YEARS and his deceit and temper are legendary. They are working against him actively now. They will work FOR Romney because they hate Santorum so much.

Payback’s a Bitch, Santo. And, payback is coming your way.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/01/pennsylvania_gop_leaders_santo.html

mountainaires on April 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I hope you are right but I am not optimistic. Romney was always a weak candidate and he is much weaker after a rough primary. After the mud they’ve slung, Santorum and Gingrich are not likely to rally around the nominee which means they are not going to be out campaigning and energizing people during the general election.

Even if Newt and Santorum campaigned hard for Romney, it would not be likely to make a big difference. The main reason for their surges were conservatives desperate for an alternative to Romney. All the strong candidates the Tea Party was interested in as anything other than “stop Romney” declined to run this cycle for varying reasons. I find it very unlikely that Santorum and Gingrich endorsing or campaign for Romney will move any votes.

In fact, I can see Newt running around this fall publicly undermining Romney.

I doubt it. His tone has become noticeably more conciliatory in the last few days. I’m not sure where this meme of Santorum running just because of evil intentions emerged, either, but I haven’t seen anything close to the level of Newt’s outbursts from him.

We’re in for an ugly campaign, made uglier by the petty vindictiveness of the losing candidates. I just have a hard time seeing us prevail in November. But I pray God it happens.

dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 10:18 AM

The idea that if Romney loses, it’s because of Santorum or Newt is ridiculous. He would have certainly been attacked in the general anyway and Santorum and Newt are not the reasons conservatives won’t unite around Romney (and neither is Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, or any other liberal Republican hate icon).

All of these people are outlets for a conservative base that is disappointed over Republican refusal to get serious about fiscal reform or fight the Obama administration. Instead, we keep hearing from these people that we’re going to have to learn to live with Obamacare and that we have to spend more money to “save the country.” Conservative frustration is very real and isn’t being drummed up by a few clever hucksters, no matter how much Romney supporters might wish it were true.

Doomberg on April 5, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I think he’s referring to John McCain, but correct me if I’m wrong.

22044 on April 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Perhaps, which of course begs the question. Are friends easier to get shed of then kin? At which point do friends become adversaries?

Bmore on April 5, 2012 at 10:35 AM

It will be a contest between Obama who thinks he’s the smartest man in the room versus Romney the man who IS the whitest man in the room.

Obama & Axelrod . . they’ve spent millions trying to defeat him in the primary

Millions, really? Link?

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Well, Santorum is in denial and perhaps his campaign ought to look up all those GOP leaders in PA who he’s alienated so badly that they now DESPISE HIM, and will do all they can to get rid of him once and for all in Pennsylvania–a state he hasn’t lived in for more than a decade!

His real “home state” is Virginia, where he couldn’t even get on the ballot.

Here’s what the PA GOP thinks of Santo:

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/01/pennsylvania_gop_leaders_santo.html

mountainaires on April 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Yes, this will be an ugly election, and the ugliest part will be how the Democrats turn Willard into a punching bag. Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I don’t see how a real conservative could enjoy another 4 years of Obama (which is the only alternative to Romney at this point).

talkingpoints on April 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

First of all, I’m not a “Willard Cultis”t. Second, my comments are not designed to “suppress turnout.” I supported plenty of other Not-Romney candiates and he was not even close to my preferred choice.

However, I am a realist. It is clear that Romney will be our nominee. It also seems obvious that if Santorum can’t win PA, he’s probably done with electoral politics. It’s hard to come back from losing your home state twice. If it looks like he will lose PA, his future in electoral politics would be best served by bowing out and not suffering a humiliating home state defeat.

Also, every day that goes by without being able to focus on defeating Obama is a day that Obama’s re-elect chances get better.

This has been a divisive campaign. Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum have all slung enough mud at eachother that it’s hard to see any of them giving serious support to the nominee in the general. This becomes all the more problematic the closer the last intercine attack ad is to the convention. We need some time before the convention for intraparty hard feelings to subside and for everyone to refocus on defeating Obama.

At this point, the math has spoken and the math says Romney will be our nominee. I didn’t ask for that. I didn’t advocate for that. But I accept it. Now let’s quit screaming at eachother and questioning eachother’s motives and let’s do our damndest between now and November to beat Barack Obama.

dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

and he’s made huge dents in Santorum’s leads among evangelicals, Tea Party voters and “very conservative” voters.

Sorry that’s me. I will vote for him just to stick it to him (this time). When Mitt is the nominee I will fetch that clothespin and take it to the voting booth.

First vote is my statement of “anybody but Mitt” the other, “crap I have no choice but Mitt”. If anybody’s asking why I plan to do this, it’s none of your business. I am a Palinista Catholic conservative woman from Puerto Rico. And you know what she said about polls.

ProudPalinFan on April 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

At this point, the math has spoken and the math says Romney will be our nominee. I didn’t ask for that. I didn’t advocate for that. But I accept it. Now let’s quit screaming at eachother and questioning eachother’s motives and let’s do our damndest between now and November to beat Barack Obama.

MATH for president 2012

gerrym51 on April 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Couple observations about the presentation of this topic by Tina.

A Six Point lead isn’t “comfortable” three weeks out and why is the tag “eek”?

Santorum isn’t going to be the nominee. Why is it a bad thing that he’s drying up in PA, if you’re a Republican that should please you. Other than that, the “risking a loss” thing is real, he has to leave his brand in tact so he can be a big player in the party. If he’s pollig behind en masse in ten days or so, he should leave, disappear for a while then endorse Romney right around the time Rush and Levin do.

AYNBLAND on April 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Yes, this will be an ugly election, and the ugliest part will be how the Democrats turn Willard into a punching bag. Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You’re probably right about this Emperor. Many folks I know have soured on Romney considerably the way he and his supporters have conducted themselves during this primary. They have and have had complete disdain for conservatives, and conservatives will enjoy watching Romney twist in the wind once the democrats get down to business.

KickandSwimMom on April 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I don’t see how a real conservative could enjoy another 4 years of Obama (which is the only alternative to Romney at this point).

I didn’t say I’d enjoy an Obama second term. I said I’d enjoy seeing the Willard get the electoral crap kicked out of him.

Yes, Obama would return for a second term, but Willard followers like this guy would really feel the pain:

I am so sick of Rick the whining loser. He makes me want to puke.
entropent on April 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I mean, isn’t it enough to win the overall primary contest? It’s like Willard and his boys are mortally offended that these low-born Republican upstarts have dared to challenge him for the nomination.

And please stop reminding us every 30 seconds that Willard is the only alternative to Obama. We all know how that works, and we still can’t stand Willard.

Dump Willard.

Now more than ever!

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It’s more than a little optimistic to think that by dropping out of the race now, Santorum would be an “immediate contender” in 2016. He’s still going to be an obnoxious, know it all that overstayed his welcome far into the 2012 race. He’s done.

Santorum is in a bad position politally.

He’s done for this election cycle, whether he knows it of not, and neither 2016 nor 2020 look promising.

The Republican AAA farm club is as deep as it has ever been. Lots of quality candidates who weren’t quite ready this cycle (Ryan, Rubio, Jindal, Christie, Sandoval, Martinez, McDonnell to name a few) will be ready in 2016 if Romney loses and in 2020 if he wins. One of them may well be the sitting VP.

I think the next election cycle will be a stark exception to the Repuclican “next in line” habit.

FuzzyLogic on April 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage. Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Wow. That smacks of, “If I don’t get my way here, I’m going to take my ball and go home.”

But by all means, go ahead and get ready for Act II. But if you think you’ll live to fight again at end of the show, better think again. If the so called “true conservatives” sit this one out and Barry were to win, you’ll suffer as much or more along with all the rest of us.

Instead of sitting it out, understand that Governor Romney wants a second term. Hold his feet to the fire to stay true to the conservative values that he says he has adopted. He’s far from my first choice but he’s light years better than what we have now. I held my nose and voted for our last guy — literally — and he was far worse than what we’re looking at this time.

EconomicNeocon on April 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Those “conservatives” deserve whatever happens then, because they have basically voted for Obama. I really think people who love the US will do everything they can do to make sure the Obamas move out of the WH in January 2013.

Voter from WA State on April 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Such a tired throw-away line. Emperor said the conservatives will enjoy the carnage. He said nothing about whether they would ultimately vote for the Romney turd.

KickandSwimMom on April 5, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Sorry typing with migraines. My post was meant to read like this:

Sorry but that’s me. I will vote for him (Rick Santorum) just to stick it to him (Romney) this go around. When Mitt’s the nominee I will fetch that clothespin and take it to the voting booth.

My first vote will be my statement but “ABM”; the other, “crap I have no other choice but Mitt”. If anybody’s asking why I plan to do this, it’s none of your business and y’all won’t change my mind. This is the PA primary. I am a Catholic Palinista conservative woman from Puerto Rico. And you know what Sarah said about polls

(click above for link).

ProudPalinFan on April 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

“Eek”?

More like “Duh”.

Jeddite on April 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

The Tea Parties essentially went on the march over Obamacare. Does ANYONE expect those same activists to get all Rah-Rah in support for the GRANDFATHER of the beast??? REALLY?!?

If Mitt is the nominee, you just saw the national grassroots efforts thrown int the dustbin. And being the GOP establishment itself considers a Romney win improbable (According to Joe Scarborough), 4 more years of Obama are headed our way.

michaelo on April 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Now let’s quit screaming at each other and questioning each other’s motives and let’s do our damndest between now and November to beat Barack Obama.

What you mean “we,” Kemosabe?

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Classic misfit gibberish. It would be humorous if it wasn’t so pathetic.

cicerone on April 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

“Obama & Axelrod . . they’ve spent millions trying to defeat him in the primary
Millions, really? Link?

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:37 AM”

Yeah really. Get your own link and educate yourself. I learned about the attack ads in Florida from a friend who lives there.

And it wasn’t just the DNC/Obama machine, many liberal groups & big labor spent millions to defeat Romney in the primary.

No sitting president has ever done that before…….Obama is very afraid of Romney and after that speech Mitt gave at the media conference yesterday he should be.

sheryl on April 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

“Now part of Romney’s religion problem is that he’s a part of a new religion. Established religions like Judaism, which is about 4,000 years old, and Christianity, which is about 2,000 years old, don’t easily warm up to new religions like Romney’s, which is only 182 years old. . . . Mormonism was created by a guy in upstate New York in 1830 when he got caught having sex with the maid and explained to his wife that God told him to do it. Forty-eight wives later, Joseph Smith’s lifestyle was completely sanctified in the religion he invented to go with it. Which Mitt Romney says he believes.”
– Lawrence O’Donnell, MSNBC, April 3

Seems like the democrats are now starting to get down to business on Romney.

KickandSwimMom on April 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

“Eek”?

More like “Duh”.

Jeddite on April 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

lol

When is Ed coming back? Not soon enough, that’s for sure!

cicerone on April 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Now let’s quit screaming at each other and questioning each other’s motives and let’s do our damndest between now and November to beat Barack Obama.

Leave that to Mr. Prius and the Bushes and the McCain. They sure know what they’re doing////

ProudPalinFan on April 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Again, maybe the hard core AM conservatives at some point will get that there are more of the rational even keeled people out there in the nation, as well as the republican party, than there are of them.

You’re a very good sized MINORITY in the Republican party, but since you can’t even muster beating Mitt Romney when your up against other republican voters, it’s not a establishment conspiracy, people are voting for him, then maybe at some point you might reconsider your adamant feelings that you should be able to control the dialogue and MSG in the republican party from a minority position, much less the whole country.

Not trying to sideline you guys, but maybe just maybe, there are bigger groups of people than you guys, which in turns means, you’re not the biggest concern and aren’t gonna be. A concern for sure, but you don’t run the nation or your party from a minority position. Influence? Of course! But acting like you’re the end all be all and that only hard edged AM conservative values should ever be given any credence or candidates must end at some point, because you can’t even beat Mitt with your numbers, so you’re not as important as the larger group of even keeled folks just in the Republican party alone.

Bye Santorum. Thank you Jesus, praise Allah, and light the minora. Now it’s on to lose this thing either way since Mitt sucks too, but at least the rest of us won’t be made to look like 1950′s fundamentalists for the next year since we were gonna lose anyway with our terrible candidate choices.

Boomer_Sooner on April 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

MATH for president 2012

gerrym51 on April 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Math is a wonderful thing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa8U0nL-KXg

22044 on April 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

His rhetoric in recent days — particularly his invocations of the fighting spirit of Ronald Reagan, who lost his first bid at the presidential nomination — suggest he’d consider another run at the presidency in 2016. If he ducks out before a loss in Pennsylvania, he’d be an immediate contender in 2016, remembered as the man who gave Mitt Romney a real race. If he loses Pennsylvania, he might not be a contender at all in 2016, remembered as the man who held on too long.

I disagree. If he ducks out now, almost immediately before a potential drubbing in his home state, he risks tarnishing himself with the “quitter” meme that has effectively ended Sarah Palin’s political career (and yes, Palinistas, I believe and accept Palin’s reasons for quitting. But perception is fact in politics). He’ll look like a scared little weakling, and won’t even be let out of the box in 2016.

He has to go on now, no choice. The time to leave was after one of the big Midwestern losses, in Illinois or Ohio, while he was still up in the PA polls. Leaving then would have left Santorum looking like the underdog with a fighting chance who sacrificed for the good of the party. Now he is just an angry, egotistical loser who can’t win his home state, and who is dragging the party into oblivion.

The last good choice Santorum made in this primary was to refuse to join Gingrich and Perry in their class warfare attacks on Romney. For about five minutes he was the positive, ideasandObama focused candidate, taking up the mantle that Gingrich so shamefully (and shamelessly) cast away. Had Santorum kept to that approach, even in the face of the Romney Death Star, things would be very different today. Unfortunately, Santorum reverted to type, the air went out of his candidacy, and he’s flopping his way to oblivion.

Mr. Arkadin on April 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

And being the GOP establishment itself considers a Romney win improbable (According to Joe Scarborough), 4 more years of Obama are headed our way.

michaelo on April 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Wow. How does it feel to be totally punk’d by Joe Scarborough? You have a problem with Romney but you’ll take Scarborough’s word for it?

cicerone on April 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

sheryl, Obama is afraid of any candidate we toss out there. If he responded to Sarah Palin’s attacks, when pressed Team Obama will respond to any of the GOP candidates, even if we put out there Mr. Orange juice, Mr. Potato Head or whatever Paul Ryan states because Ryan put the budget out there.

We’ve been without budgets for the whole term so far; why do I feel he will not approve this one?

ProudPalinFan on April 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

The Obama Media has already begun it’s full frontal assault on Mormonism. They’re going to make Romney into the Grand Wizard of the KKK before this over. This thing is going to be ugly times ugly.

AYNBLAND on April 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Rick rolled.

Noocyte on April 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Such a tired throw-away line. Emperor said the conservatives will enjoy the carnage. He said nothing about whether they would ultimately vote for the Romney turd.

KickandSwimMom on April 5, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Well it’s nice to know that you don’t feel the need to be taken seriously. Clown nose on?

cicerone on April 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

That smacks of, “If I don’t get my way here, I’m going to take my ball and go home.”

No, it’s just a prediction, not a threat. It’s a done deal. There is no way, after months of Hot Air thread mayhem from true-believing Willard followers, that anyone can vote for that creep.

The people who will be blamed for messing up this election are the Willard supporters. Willard is a liberal and he has no business running for the Republican nomination. You all know how Willard went out of his way in 1992 to register as a Democrat and vote for an even bigger dweeb, Paul Tsongas. You all know about his family donation to Planned Parenthood. WTF?

Willard is the one destroying the Republican party. And I really don’t like being urged by the Willard crew to start goose-stepping on behalf of him.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

10 bucks says he will keep running. HIs ego is almost as big as obama’s and he thinks Mitt is going to have to offer him the VP.

aniptofar on April 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

There is no evidence that any of your comments are true. You just hate Santorum for whatever reason.

Happy Nomad on April 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Conservatives will not only stay home–we will enjoy watching the carnage. Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I am a conservative and I will not stay home, I will not enjoy the carnage, (unless we are on the inflicting, rather than receiving side), and I will not withold my vote for the Republican nominee just because I didn’t get my way.

I will hold my nose and pull the lever for whomever we nominate because this country can’t withstand another four years of Obama and his appointees. If for no other reason than to replace EPA leadership…..

Most conservatives are not as petty as Mr. Norton assumes. At least not the ones I know.

dczombie on April 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Willard is the one destroying the Republican party. And I really don’t like being urged by the Willard crew to start goose-stepping on behalf of him.

Emperor Norton on April 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Spoken like a true Axelrod dupe.

cicerone on April 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Comment pages: 1 2