Hot Air Homestretch Survey Final Results

posted at 2:00 pm on March 31, 2012 by Patrick Ishmael

It’s both the highest percentage of the vote and the largest margin between first and second place we’ve had to date. Mitt Romney again takes the Hot Air Survey, this time with 61% of the vote. He’s followed by Rick Santorum with 20%, Newt Gingrich with 14%, and Ron Paul with 4%. I think it is fair to say that at this point, Republicans are pivoting to the general election. Over 2000 votes were cast.

Romney is beginning to win the most votes among the 2008 candidate constituencies. Interestingly, Gingrich wins among self-proclaimed Palin voters, and Santorum wins among Huckabee voters.

No surprises in the preferred vice president category.

Questions or looking for a specific cross tab? You can find me here. Typically these surveys have been done twice a month, and events on the ground could be such that in two weeks that this race could be over, making further Hot Gas surveys utterly extraneous. (Yes, commenters, please tell me how extraneous and pointless these are/were. Please.)

If that’s the case, let me take the opportunity to say that this was a lot of fun, and it was a pleasure working with everyone to get this experiment off the ground. Had a blast!

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5

give credit to hotgas folks seeing the light…coalesce behind Romney with Rubio as veep…we will take the White House back

like I said, Woody and Newt Horndog to to get out of the race…2 jerks acting like sore losers

nparga23 on March 31, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Romney is the sore loser. He has lost the primaries.

The convention fight is all that’s left.

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 8:40 PM

And I personally remain committed to making sure that Romney lives up to his promises or else I’m with all of you at the barricades for 2016.

The War Planner on March 31, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Same here.

As for the folks who are stupid enough to vote against their own interests and that of this nation because of spite towards some cyber stranger who rubs them the wrong way, I have no use for them. Fools like that are mostly too stupid to find their way to a poll booth to begin with.

MJBrutus on March 31, 2012 at 8:42 PM

As for the folks who are stupid enough to vote against their own interests and that of this nation because of spite towards some cyber stranger who rubs them the wrong way, I have no use for them. Fools like that are mostly too stupid to find their way to a poll booth to begin with.
MJBrutus on March 31, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Meh. They’re either trolls or mentally/emotionally unstable – they don’t matter because they are either fakes or undependable. (i.e. not Republicans to begin with.)

whatcat on March 31, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Nom de Boom on March 31, 2012 at 8:23 PM

At its core: I can say, nothing. Both allow (if you can use the word) people to choose which poison they want from the plan…however, if I don’t the crap sandwich being served at Cafe Massachusetts, I can pack up and go to one of the other 49 State Cafes where i can eat.

OTOH, with O-Care, not only do I have to eat the dang sammich, I have to eat the peas on the side and wash it down with Moxie. Even if I somehow *don’t* eat it, I still have to pay for the meal of others, like it or not.

Ok, peeps. Gotta go be an honorary Jayhawk rooting against the hated Buckeyes.

LOL, enjoy the Madness, Non! Fun debating with ya.. :o)

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 8:48 PM

I sincerely believe that Mitt Romney will be the best President we have had since Ronald Reagan.

crosspatch on March 31, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Hear! Hear!

Mitt is the perfect man for our times. He hasn’t just theorized his entire life about what it’s like in the real world. He has lived in it and has learned what makes our nation work. He hasn’t spent a life time preaching about capitalism, he has made it his career and after learning what there is to know has taken on himself the task of correcting the mistakes that have crippled it. Mistakes made by career politicians who comfortably pontificate from the halls of Congress, only pretending that they have a clue.

MJBrutus on March 31, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Romney is the sore loser. He has lost the primaries.

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 8:40 PM

How many fingers am I holding up?

Buttercup on March 31, 2012 at 8:52 PM

How many fingers am I holding up?

Buttercup on March 31, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Less than 1144, I’m guessing.

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 8:53 PM

give credit to hotgas folks seeing the light…coalesce behind Romney with Rubio as veep…we will take the White House back

We’ll take the WH back *in spite* of the candidate that remains standing, not because of him…see [McCain/Palin 2008]

like I said, Woody and Newt Horndog to to get out of the race…2 jerks acting like sore losers

nparga23 on March 31, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Childish. At least these guys were willing to get on a national stage and accept critique, for better or worse. An fair example would be: would you be willing to post your real name & e-mail addy for one and all?

Romney is the sore loser. He has lost the primaries.

The convention fight is all that’s left.

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Are you reaching for that “Brokered Convention” playbook?

I never understood that: You don’t like the nominee because he was “handpicked” by the Establishment…If that’s so, then who the heck do you think is gonna be at the B.C?

This isn’t a game…the election is going to be hard enough without trying to satisfy every nuanced detail for every member of the party.

We all agree: The slate that ran this cycle is not the people we want, but who we have left right now. If Romney is the nominee, you won’t support him? You dislike him (as a conservative) that much more than the last 4 years the Country went through?

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Are you reaching for that “Brokered Convention” playbook?

I never understood that: You don’t like the nominee because he was “handpicked” by the Establishment…If that’s so, then who the heck do you think is gonna be at the B.C?

This isn’t a game…the election is going to be hard enough without trying to satisfy every nuanced detail for every member of the party.

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 8:58 PM

I’m fine with Romney. The problem is that everyone is living in some strange dream. He will not get to 1144. Therefore, he has lost the primaries.

We must begin to plan and discuss the post-primary convention process.

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Hey, good news I’ve found a path to electoral victory for Romney. If he holds the McCain states and manages to pickup VA and FL….oh, never mind. I accidentally had CA going red. Romney’s still losing the general.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 9:08 PM

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Of course he’ll get to 1144. That was never in doubt, except for those who can’t distinguish between what they want and what is real.

MJBrutus on March 31, 2012 at 9:09 PM

The War Planner on March 31, 2012 at 8:32 PM

First, I am not a Romney supporter. I supported Perry. When I said I ran the numbers, I did it from a relatively impartial standpoint. I also spent the better part of a day diving deep into demographics, past results, and calculations based on primaries up to that point. The fact that some people don’t want to see the facts staring them in the face is their problem, not mine. I’m not gloating, because Romney is not “my candidate”.

Here are a few facts to think about:

01. Of the remaining 22 states, 13 favor Romney and 6 favor Santorum. A few are neutral.
02. Of the remaining primaries, 8 are categorized as “winner take all”. And all of those are in states where Romney has an advantage (377 delegates).
03. Even in states where he has lost, Romney has not come up with less than 25% of the delegates, except in one case (MN). In the rest, his average is probably around 30%.
04. When you do the math, factor in momentum, and apply the results to the remaining states, Romney goes over the top on June 5, and winds up with around 1300 delegates (plus some other currently unassigned delegates that will fall into line once the media acknowledges the obvious).

Adding the winner-take-all delegates to his current total, Romney will then have around 940 delegates, needing 204 more, with 774 delegates remaining to be selected, most of those from states that favor Romney.

I’m not telling anyone not to go vote, or to stop venting, I’m just pointing out the math.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:11 PM

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 9:02 PM

So what is the Plan?

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:12 PM

And I personally remain committed to making sure that Romney lives up to his promises or else I’m with all of you at the barricades for 2016.

The War Planner on March 31, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Yeah, sure. Let’s say there’s some absolute singularity and Romney wins. In 2016 when those TrueCons start griping it’ll be the same old song and dance: “What are ya gonna do, help the DEMOCRATS?????”

It’s academic anyway. Romney won’t win.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Hey, good news I’ve found a path to electoral victory for Romney. If he holds the McCain states and manages to pickup VA and FL….oh, never mind. I accidentally had CA going red. Romney’s still losing the general.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 9:08 PM

LOL…

I’m not telling anyone not to go vote, or to stop venting, I’m just pointing out the math.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Yeah, but when it comes to Romney’s rotten polling it becomes essential to apply some of that Super Fuzzy Fantasy Mitt Math.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:15 PM

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:13 PM

True. He won’t win, if we do not get out the vote for him (if he’s the nominee).

Again, you can do or do not. But if he loses, we do too.

If he looses because some what to sit home on their hands because he’s only 90% instead of 100%, when you have an Administration 100% against everything you already believe…well that kinda math is how we got this deficit in the first place.

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:18 PM

True. He won’t win, if we do not get out the vote for him (if he’s the nominee).

Again, you can do or do not. But if he loses, we do too.

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Sorry, but alot of us have been saying it for a long time now. “Romney sucks, but Obama sucks more!!!!!” is NOT a winning strategy, as will become apparent in due course. People — even many in the base who despise Obama — just aren’t going to fall for the same old thing again. In addition, those precious indies will break Obama’s way. Take it to the bank.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Yeah, but when it comes to Romney’s rotten polling it becomes essential to apply some of that Super Fuzzy Fantasy Mitt Math.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:15 PM

I’m not sure what you mean, but if I’m not right feel free to come back and mock me mercilessly. Or would you like to make a bet and the one of us that is wrong has to come back and post “I am a doofus” 100 times over the course of a week on various threads?

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:21 PM

If he looses because some what to sit home on their hands because he’s only 90% instead of 100%, when you have an Administration 100% against everything you already believe…well that kinda math is how we got this deficit in the first place.

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:18 PM

No, when he loses it will be because the GOP and their toadies once again gave the middle finger to the conservative base. The “math” we’ve had preached to us for at least the past 2 years was that indies, moderates and disaffected Dems were the only “numbers” that matter. Good luck with that.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:24 PM

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:21 PM

You should know better than to that dude with any amount of seriousness. He’s made it his business to proclaim dire predictions about Mitt since day 1. Romney’s campaign has died a thousand deaths in that sad sack’s eyes over the last 6 months. Needless to say, a prediction from him is the closest thing to a guarantee that the opposite will happen.

MJBrutus on March 31, 2012 at 9:26 PM

I’m not sure what you mean, but if I’m not right feel free to come back and mock me mercilessly. Or would you like to make a bet and the one of us that is wrong has to come back and post “I am a doofus” 100 times over the course of a week on various threads?

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:21 PM

You like numbers? Here’s one for you: 34%. That’s Romney’s approval rating AFTER (another number) 3 years of positive press coverage.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:26 PM

You should know better than to that dude with any amount of seriousness. He’s made it his business to proclaim dire predictions about Mitt since day 1. Romney’s campaign has died a thousand deaths in that sad sack’s eyes over the last 6 months. Needless to say, a prediction from him is the closest thing to a guarantee that the opposite will happen.

MJBrutus on March 31, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Hey, KosKiddie: use the search function here and look how many times since 2009 I’ve predicted Romney will be the nominee and will get his ass handed to him in the general.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:28 PM

I’m not telling anyone not to go vote, or to stop venting, I’m just pointing out the math.

Romney haters don’t do math-just hate

gerrym51 on March 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Sorry, but alot of us have been saying it for a long time now. “Romney sucks, but Obama sucks more!!!!!” is NOT a winning strategy, as will become apparent in due course.

And saying “Neener-Neener, I don’t like the rules, I’m taking my ball and going home..” isn’t doing anyone any favors either.

It’s not trying for a strategy, its a fact of political life…Romney is not a Reagan Conservative, okay we get that. But you cannot, *cannot* sit there with a straight look on your mug and tell me you’d rather have another 4 years of Obama?

C’mon.

People — even many in the base who despise Obama — just aren’t going to fall for the same old thing again.

Again, which people? Those that are out of work and been so for last 3 1/2 years? Those that drive and paying over $3.75 for regular? Those that are seeing China, Russia on the move?

I’m a member of the GOP base. I didn’t like McCain either, but I voted for Palin and the chance that we could avoid this rollercoaster we’ve been on for the last 40+ months, and you think we wanna go through that again, just because Romney not a 1000% Conservative Blue Blood?

In addition, those precious indies will break Obama’s way. Take it to the bank.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Possible. Or they (like you seem to be) will stay home cuz Obama isn’t Progressive enough.

All votes aren’t guarantees. How many Democrats have you met that are just as unhappy with Obama? If you noticed, he’ll run unopposed in his primaries, how many of those independents & moderate will hate *that*?

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Hey, good news I’ve found a path to electoral victory for Romney. If he holds the McCain states and manages to pickup VA and FL….oh, never mind. I accidentally had CA going red. Romney’s still losing the general.

and which states will Santorum,Gingrich,or Paul pick up

gerrym51 on March 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

You like numbers? Here’s one for you: 34%. That’s Romney’s approval rating AFTER (another number) 3 years of positive press coverage.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:26 PM

And here’s another number for you: my shoe size is 11. But what any of these numbers have to do with past, present and future primary results has yet to be established. I’m willing to admit my shoe size is a complete non sequitur…now will you please explain why your “new numbers” have any more relevance (and also please provide a link to the approval rating you cited, because it’s different than what I have been seeing and I’m always interested in new information).

The “doofus bet” offer still stands, by the way.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Hey, KosKiddie: use the search function here and look how many times since 2009 I’ve predicted Romney will be the nominee and will get his ass handed to him in the general.

And Santorum,Gingrich,or Paul have a better chance?

gerrym51 on March 31, 2012 at 9:37 PM

evergreenland on March 31, 2012 at 8:07 PM
Are you being serious???

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 9:40 PM

No, when he loses it will be because the GOP and their toadies once again gave the middle finger to the conservative base.

Why? Didn’t the Conservatives run a candidate in the Party? We had a wide swath of candidate to choose from; we gave money time etc and if Romney is the last man standing, okay.

If you *don’t* want someone picking a horse for you, then get your horse to the gate and have him run. Good or bad, Romney followed the rules, and like it or not, this is whats left…because the other guy *isn’t* an option.

The “math” we’ve had preached to us for at least the past 2 years was that indies, moderates and disaffected Dems were the only “numbers” that matter. Good luck with that.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:24 PM

I don’t know where you find that at: I count on my vote and the vote of my peers to carry the day. If Conservatives truly outnumber the Progressives, it shouldn’t matter who the nominee is, we can get him into the WH on our own.

Dude, in the end, like it or not: you’re in the same boat as the rest of us…either you’re helping us row, or your ballast.

Think about it: MAYBE, Romney is bad…but you have been paying attention to what the last 3 1/2 years have been like right?

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:44 PM

This is one of my new favorite quotes:

Hey, KosKiddie: use the search function here and look how many times since 2009 I’ve predicted Romney will be the nominee and will get his ass handed to him in the general.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:28 PM

He’s been the frontrunner since the night McCain lost. So you play it safe in predicting he will win the nomination, how bold of you.

We will have to wait until November to see if the part of your prediction that contains risk comes to pass.

Every night, I predict the sun will come up in the morning. I have a better track record than you.

Hey, KosKiddie: use the search function here and look how many times since 2009 I’ve predicted Romney will be the nominee and will get his ass handed to him in the general.

ddrintn on March 31, 2012 at 9:28 PM

That just cracks me up. I’ll get a chuckle out of this for weeks. Thanks.

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Hey, good news I’ve found a path to electoral victory for Romney. If he holds the McCain states and manages to pickup VA and FL….oh, never mind. I accidentally had CA going red. Romney’s still losing the general.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 9:08 PM

OK. To McCain’s 2008 states, add:

Indiana (11), Florida (29), Virginia (13), Ohio (18), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), plus the net six electoral votes that are shifting to states the McCain actually won. Also, there is hope for New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7).

I’m not guaranteeing that this will happen, just responding to your post and saying that there’s a path.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:51 PM

So, when it comes to math regarding the nomination, reality doesn’t sink in, but if it envolves the electoral map for the general, it’s all the sudden relevant? If more people don’t want an Obama second term, he won’t get one. You can stare at your electoral map for 6 months if it makes you happy, all that matters is November.

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Looks like the Romney campaign to be the last man standing finally worked, if the remaining primaries and caucuses pan out as expected. Can’t say I’m thrilled to vote for him.

Jurisprudence on March 31, 2012 at 9:59 PM

OK. To McCain’s 2008 states, add:

Indiana (11), Florida (29), Virginia (13), Ohio (18), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), plus the net six electoral votes that are shifting to states the McCain actually won. Also, there is hope for New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7).

I’m not guaranteeing that this will happen, just responding to your post and saying that there’s a path.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:51 PM

Hmm. Maybe, but that’s awfully close, if Obama keeps either Ohio or Virginia, Mittens is sunk.

And I’m being nice in assuming he doesn’t lose a single McCain state. Missouri or Montana, for instance. And Obama will push hard in both, especially Missouri. McCain won by about 3k votes, iirc.

Still need to know who the veep will be…

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 9:56 PM

You sound eerily like my old poli-sci professor. Crazy lib, spent months of class arguing that Kerry was a shoo-in. When I asked him which states he thought Kerry would win, he gave a quick list.

I said, “that’s only about 200 EV’s”. He replied, “So!”

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:01 PM

One thing ya’ gotta’ remember, 2008, like 2006, was an awesome year for dems.

0bama, and the dems, were at the height of their popularity.

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Hmm. Maybe, but that’s awfully close, if Obama keeps either Ohio or Virginia, Mittens is sunk.

And I’m being nice in assuming he doesn’t lose a single McCain state. Missouri or Montana, for instance. And Obama will push hard in both, especially Missouri. McCain won by about 3k votes, iirc.

Still need to know who the veep will be…

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:01 PM

You are absolutely correct. It will be close. There is no clear path to a Romney blowout that I can see. And he does have to pick up every McCain state. If PA and NH were to be in play as well (GWB did win NH in 2000), that would provide a bit of a buffer. But if national trends reduce Obama’s support by even a couple of points, then Romney would be at least unlikely to lose any McCain states, leaving the battleground states as noted above.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 10:09 PM

I don’t see Romney picking up IA, despite his corn subsidies pandering. IA has only gone red once since Reagan, ’04. They voted against a liberal MA politician with a well deserved record as a flip-flopper.

New Mexico, same thing really. Went red in ’04. Blue, otherwise. If not for a snowstorm, it might have gone red in 2000.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:12 PM

One thing ya’ gotta’ remember, 2008, like 2006, was an awesome year for dems.

0bama, and the dems, were at the height of their popularity.

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Depends which school of thought you belong too; were the dems really more popular or were conservatives demoralized and staying home in unusual numbers?

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Wow, I’ve just been giving Romney Indiana, didn’t remember Obama won it in ’08. Not that that changes anything.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Depending on whose number you look at for 2008, it could go either way. IIRC, 2006 showed both. Put those together, along with 2010, you get the pendulum swinging the other way for 2012.

But, until November, its all speculation.

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 10:20 PM

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 10:20 PM

I just don’t see the 2010 enthusiasm anymore. Its not just Romney, the TEA party seems highly demoralized and the GOP leadership seem more than a little happy to see it go. I do think the establishment would rather lose to the dems than risk a conservative nominee win. And 2010 had plenty of evidence to back that impression up.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:25 PM

I’m sick of the Eeyore’s on here.

Alana on March 31, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Abandon all hope, and surrender to apathy – Romney 2012 (or something)

Pork-Chop on March 31, 2012 at 10:27 PM

faraway on March 31, 2012 at 8:40 PM
Rejoin the other tools in the shed, please.

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:06 PM
Cool story.

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Its also worth noting that the avg. Gasoline price tends start dropping in September or October every two years or so. Just in time for the elections. The only real recent exception to that being 2010, when prices were pretty much flat.

Between faked jobs reports and growing markets, Romney’s going to need to move the election to more than just pure economic issues. Hard to predict if foreign policy will be important or not (it wasn’t in ’08), but Romney is particularly strong on FP, anyway.

I’m also not at all convinced the Romney has the ability to shape the news media narrative, unlike a certain person-who-shall-not-be named, and this will make it much harder for him from now on. This election is going to be pushed in directions that play to Obama’s advantage.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Abandon all hope, and surrender to apathy – Romney 2012 (or something)

as long as you vote in november for mitt your ok

gerrym51 on March 31, 2012 at 11:04 PM

gerrym51 on March 31, 2012 at 11:04 PM

For Him or against Obama, as long as he votes.

ABO 2012.

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 11:05 PM

Anybody but Barry. Even SMOD.

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 11:11 PM

I must “toot my own horn” I voted for Romney in the 2008 Florida GOP primary and supported him ever since. In 2010, I had the priveledge of voting for Marco Rubio for US Senate and Allen West for Congress. (How lucky am I?)

But when Rubio won, immediately started preaching Romney/Rubio 2012 and guess what? The rest of the right-thinking country followed my lead! Of course, I am no mind reader or prophet, just a common-sense conservative. Senator Santorum – stop the madness and let’s get to work on returning Obama to Chicago so he and Bobbie Rush can try and stop the wholesale slaughter of black yoots in their own community.

BabysCatz on March 31, 2012 at 11:11 PM

BabysCatz on March 31, 2012 at 11:11 PM
Sweet!

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 11:14 PM

So the prophecy is true then.

The Republicans would give Obama his dream-come-true candidate, giving Obama a landslide victory for his second term until 2016.

Go, Romney! Go, Obama! Go Go Go Go, Socialism!

Victoria will be the most fitting sacrifice to the above biggest ceremony in honor of Alinsky’s Favorite Angel!

Romney, the Winneh, the pooh!

TheAlamos on March 31, 2012 at 11:33 PM

TheAlamos on March 31, 2012 at 11:33 PM

It won’t be a landslide, just 300:238 or so.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 11:47 PM

It won’t be a landslide, just 300:238 or so.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 11:47 PM

Well, that’s the other part of prophecy. Bwahahaha!

Luv it! See you guys in 2016!

Don’t labor too hard! You know, if Romney can buy these primaries (= game of lies and confusion), I just hope he has saved enough money to buy the general election from the Teh 1. As Ryan said and Rubio alluded, MONEY AND MACHINERY WIN ELECTION, NOT PRINCIPLES!

To the majority of the Tea Party peofool who voted for Romney, Santorum and Gingrich, Congratulations! You’re really the “TEH PARTED”!

TheAlamos on March 31, 2012 at 11:57 PM

What Limbaugh said in 2008 applies even more in 2012. “Conservatism did’t lose. It just wasn’t on the ticket.”

Crusty on April 1, 2012 at 12:02 AM

What Limbaugh said in 2008 applies even more in 2012. “Conservatism did’t lose. It just wasn’t on the ticket.”

Crusty on April 1, 2012 at 12:02 AM

5!

TheAlamos on April 1, 2012 at 12:05 AM

I’m fine with Romney. The problem is that everyone is living in some strange dream. He will not get to 1144. Therefore, he has lost the primaries.

I’m not sure how you’re coming to that conclusion for the primary. Romney will break the barrier given the rate he’s winning states and delegates at. California will be enough to push him over the top because he is leading with +/-20 points there over Santorum. McCain got 155 of the delegates the last time around on an 8 point lead over Romney in 2008 and Romney only got 15. So the worst case scenario is Romney doing that again in a WTA District / WTA State is Romney winning 120 Delegates with the remainder going to Santorum.

Other WTA’s are Maryland (37), New Jersey (50), Utah (40), DC (19), Deleware (17) which Romney will pick them all up for a total of 163 delegates. Texas is a proportional state and Romney is only losing by a small margin there to Santorum but Texas is a long ways off so alot will be changing by then which I expect that Santorum will lead Romney by -/+ 15 delegates over Romney.

Projected Delegate Count
543——–Santorum—–(601 short of 1,144, 17 Delegates-California)
1276——Romney——–(132 ahead of 1,144, 155 Delegates-California)
317——–Gingrich——-(827 short of 1,144, 0 Delegates-California)
151——–Ron Paul——–(993 short of 1,144, 0 Delegates-California)

There are “proportional” states that are leaning strongly for Romney but becomes WTA once a candidate breaks the 50% barrier. Only Connecticut at this point will possibly be the only Proportional->WTA state giving up 28 Delegates for Romney and none for the others.

Kaitian on April 1, 2012 at 12:27 AM

Depends which school of thought you belong too; were the dems really more popular or were conservatives demoralized and staying home in unusual numbers?

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Probably both. 2010 and 2012 will be the reverse. Despite what we see and hear from the establishment media, I still truly believe there to be a groundswell AGAINST Obama’s reelection.

It’s why the media has been so intent to demoralize the Republican voters through their coverage of the caucus/primary season. It’s why they never let up on Palin for 3-1/2 years. The Democrats’ campaign THROUGH their allies in the media has been about managing minimizing Republican enthusiasm against Obama in 2012.

The reason people aren’t enthused about the Republican candidates is because their are working their butts off in this so-called economic recovery. If someone like Palin has run, there would be enthusiasm off-the-charts; Obama would likely have stepped aside for a Clinton candidacy because he wouldn’t have stood a chance.

Jurisprudence on April 1, 2012 at 12:36 AM

It won’t be a landslide, just 300:238 or so.

Buckshot Bill on March 31, 2012 at 11:47 PM

I think it’s kind of dubious to be making general election predictions this far out, but since you started it…

Given a reasonable electoral environment and better performance from the candidate (not too much to expect, I think), the Republican is virtually certain to pick up IN, FL, VA, NC, and NV, plus the 6 electoral votes added to McCain’s states from the last election. That’s a minimum of 252, not 238.

The result then has a fairly high degree of confidence (I’d say 80% plus) of falling in the 252-286 range, one way or the other. Really, it will all come down to OH, although I expect the Republicans will also push in IA, NH, CO, and perhaps MN, WI and PA as well, just to broaden the playing field.

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 12:50 AM

First, I am not a Romney supporter. I supported Perry. When I said I ran the numbers, I did it from a relatively impartial standpoint. I also spent the better part of a day diving deep into demographics, past results, and calculations based on primaries up to that point. The fact that some people don’t want to see the facts staring them in the face is their problem, not mine. I’m not gloating, because Romney is not “my candidate”.

Here are a few facts to think about:

01. Of the remaining 22 states, 13 favor Romney and 6 favor Santorum. A few are neutral.
02. Of the remaining primaries, 8 are categorized as “winner take all”. And all of those are in states where Romney has an advantage (377 delegates).
03. Even in states where he has lost, Romney has not come up with less than 25% of the delegates, except in one case (MN). In the rest, his average is probably around 30%.
04. When you do the math, factor in momentum, and apply the results to the remaining states, Romney goes over the top on June 5, and winds up with around 1300 delegates (plus some other currently unassigned delegates that will fall into line once the media acknowledges the obvious).

Adding the winner-take-all delegates to his current total, Romney will then have around 940 delegates, needing 204 more, with 774 delegates remaining to be selected, most of those from states that favor Romney.

I’m not telling anyone not to go vote, or to stop venting, I’m just pointing out the math.

HTL on March 31, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Good for you. I too looked at the remaining primaries and have been posting since Mitt took a sizeable lead in WI that he has it in the bag. There are still some bitter resisters like Faraway and Pragmatic who are in denial. They provide an amusing interlude.

Basilsbest on April 1, 2012 at 12:50 AM

The reason people aren’t enthused about the Republican candidates is because their are working their butts off in this so-called economic recovery. If someone like Palin has run, there would be enthusiasm off-the-charts; Obama would likely have stepped aside for a Clinton candidacy because he wouldn’t have stood a chance.

Jurisprudence on April 1, 2012 at 12:36 AM

Now, there’s an interesting theory! Nominee Palin might have forced a Johnson-move by Obama. One rarely sees a need to compare Palin to Nixon, though Nixon was quite popular (at one time).

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 12:59 AM

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 12:50 AM
You mean strolling around a dimly lit basement pretending to be John King but with Glenn Beck’s blackboard is a waste of time at this point?

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:01 AM

besser all tot rot (or whatever) and Gunshot-in-the-head-Bill are having this absurd back and forth about how Mitt can’t beat Obama. If this continues after Mitt is officially the nominee (as I expect it will) it will be pretty clear who they are working for.

Basilsbest on April 1, 2012 at 1:04 AM

You mean strolling around a dimly lit basement pretending to be John King but with Glenn Beck’s blackboard is a waste of time at this point?

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:01 AM

Well, its too late to fish, what else should I do? :)

I can only re-watch MST3K episodes for so long, before the eye strain does me in. And I don’t want to start reading the new Song of Ice and Fire book yet. It’ll be half a decade before Martin finishes the next one, I’ve got to space them out.

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Basilsbest on April 1, 2012 at 1:04 AM
I don’t think they are working for anyone, just playing poly-sci proffesors to each other. Anyone else would drop their class.

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:07 AM

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:07 AM
That MST3K comment makes it very hard to dislike you.

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:10 AM

besser all tot rot (or whatever) and Gunshot-in-the-head-Bill are having this absurd back and forth about how Mitt can’t beat Obama. If this continues after Mitt is officially the nominee (as I expect it will) it will be pretty clear who they are working for.

Basilsbest on April 1, 2012 at 1:04 AM

I work for a hospital and have too much time on my hands. Plus, I find politics interesting, unlike 99% of the human race. What does it matter if I over analyze an election not taking place for months? Or are you really worried that I’ll convince you that Mittens doesn’t have a chance, and you’ll have to start looking for a new Rino savior for ’16?

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:15 AM

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:07 AM

I agree with Rusty. Tell me you’ve seen the greatest MST3K episode ever…The Final Sacrifice (also billed as The Worst Thing to Ever Come out of Canada). Larry Csonka save us!

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 1:15 AM

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 1:15 AM
Haha, my buddy and I discusses that episode last week. Small world, man.

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:18 AM

That MST3K comment makes it very hard to dislike you.

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:10 AM

I’ve got an Ed Wood episode on right now, actually.

I’ve been kicking myself for not picking the name Rowsdower, but I figured no one would get it.

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:19 AM

Actually, most (maybe all) of the full episodes are on youtube now. Makes it a lot easier to find.

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:21 AM

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:15 AM
Different stokes do different folks, brother. If we thought caring about politics was weird, we wouldn’t be on this site this time of night. I happen to think Romney can win, not sure he will. I’ll do what I can to help him get there.

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:22 AM

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 1:15 AM

I love Servo’s Canada Song, but I think Jack Frost is probably my favorite, if only for the KGB spying jokes. And the landmines in Narnia.

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:25 AM

Zap Rowsdower 2012

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:27 AM

Great. Now I have to go look up the words to Tom Servo’s Canada song, and probably won’t be able to get it out of my head tonight…

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 1:29 AM

Zap Rowsdower 2012

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:27 AM

“Rowsdower, is that….a stupid name?” :)

Oh well, I’m getting tired. I’m supposed to go fishing tomorrow actually, weather permitting. I think I put on Manos and fall asleep. Good night, all.

Except Jailbones. You suck.

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:30 AM

Great. Now I have to go look up the words to Tom Servo’s Canada song, and probably won’t be able to get it out of my head tonight…

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 1:29 AM

Ahem, from memory:

“Oh, I wish I was back in old Canada,
A land which I never shall lampoon!
How I pine for the ice covering Lake Manitoba,
And the beauty that is Saskatoon!

Oh, I wish I was stuck in the hills of Alberta,
Drinking beer with some big dumb guy trapping fur!
As he scraped and chiseled all the moose dung off his boots,
I would learn that he’s the Prime Minister!! :)

Oh, I wish I was in the land that gave us Peter Jennings,
Alanis Morissette, Mike Myers, too!
No, I take that back, I wouldn’t go there even if you paid me,
Oh, Canada, you are a place I must eschew!

Oh, how I wish I was blowing up Prince Edward Island,
And going on to bomb Ontario!
The destruction of Canada and all of its culture,
Is by far my fav-o-rite scenario!

Just where the hell does Canada get off sharing a border
With countries far superior to it?
Why, you lousy, stinking, francophonic, bacon-loving bastards,
Your country’s just a giant piece of sh–”

“I have no sense of proportion! I’m a disgrace to my uniform!” – Tom Servo

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:36 AM

Hahaha, good night.

Rusty Allen on April 1, 2012 at 1:41 AM

Except Jailbones. You suck.

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:30 AM

Oops, not Jailbones, Jailbreak!

Whatever, I’m going to bed. Good night!

Buckshot Bill on April 1, 2012 at 1:44 AM

AS much as it scares me to death..I think Ann Coulter may be an unwitting Prophet of sorts

RedLizard64 on April 1, 2012 at 2:59 AM

He’s been the frontrunner since the night McCain lost. So you play it safe in predicting he will win the nomination, how bold of you.

We will have to wait until November to see if the part of your prediction that contains risk comes to pass.

Every night, I predict the sun will come up in the morning. I have a better track record than you.

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Riiiiight….which sort of negates MJBrutus’ point, eh? But instead the disappointed PorryKrishna chooses MY comments to b1

ddrintn on April 1, 2012 at 7:41 AM

He’s been the frontrunner since the night McCain lost. So you play it safe in predicting he will win the nomination, how bold of you.

We will have to wait until November to see if the part of your prediction that contains risk comes to pass.

Every night, I predict the sun will come up in the morning. I have a better track record than you.

cozmo on March 31, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Riiiiight….which sort of negates MJBrutus’ point, eh? But instead the disappointed PerryKrishna/ one-time official HA PerryKrishna defender chooses MY comments to b1tch about. You know what I also predicted? That Perry would be a colossal flop.

ddrintn on April 1, 2012 at 7:44 AM

Again, which people? Those that are out of work and been so for last 3 1/2 years? Those that drive and paying over $3.75 for regular? Those that are seeing China, Russia on the move?

BlaxPac on March 31, 2012 at 9:34 PM

The people that are awarding Romney a 34% approval rating.

Here’s another fact of political life: run Dem Lite against Dem and Dem will win. Every time. Anyway:

Over 2000 votes were cast.

Low turnout even in an HA poll. Hilarious.

ddrintn on April 1, 2012 at 7:47 AM

Excellent, everything is going according to plan! Soon, my pretty, soon.

Chirp on April 1, 2012 at 8:36 AM

Wow, the ‘bot got 700 votes in the final Hot Gas survey, less than half the votes he got back when anyone gave a fig about the survey, and his bots are all high fiving like they just won the lottery. I guess you takes your big wins where you find them.

Anybody know why fewer than 2k votes were cast this time, vs more than 6k a month ago? I tried to vote, but the page wouldn’t load. Oh well, party on, Mitt-bots, your guy paid for this victory, may as well enjoy it!

james23 on April 1, 2012 at 8:58 AM

It’s funny to me how Romney almost has this primary wrapped up yet he still hasn’t given us much of a reason to vote for him, just reasons we shouldn’t vote for the other guy.

Hope that strategy works, because his supporters’ strategy of running around calling people stupid if they aren’t Mitt superfans probably isn’t going to work out to well in the general election.

Good luck with that get out the vote effort because many conservatives wont be helping. You know, because of how stupid we are.

I noticed at least one Mitt superfan here has politely explained that if we don’t love us some Mitt, we are too dumb to even fond a polling place. Sweet move.

If Romney loses to Obama, don’t come back blaming it on the millions of people you’ve been taking a dump on the last few months. Look in the mirror and blame yourselves. Bush was a big govt RINO also, but at least he didn’t give his base the middle finger the entire campaign.

Spliff Menendez on April 1, 2012 at 9:36 AM

It’s funny to me how Romney almost has this primary wrapped up yet he still hasn’t given us much of a reason to vote for him, just reasons we shouldn’t vote for the other guy.

Spliff Menendez on April 1, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Yeah right, Ignoramus Cyberus.

MJBrutus on April 1, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I sincerely believe that Mitt Romney will be the best President we have had since Ronald Reagan.

crosspatch on March 31, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Since Mittens doesn’t have a polygamist’s prayer of being elected, that’s funny.

Gingrich / Perry 2012
§§§§§§§§§§ ~(Ä)~ §§§§§§§§§
GOP Attack Squad Since 1972

Karl Magnus on April 1, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Romney’s T*rd In the Punchbowl Campaign rolls on….

james23 on April 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Imagine bluegill pecking excitedly on your kitchen window as you groggily struggle with the coffee maker…

Nom de Boom on March 31, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Ahh! The fantasy land response.

Many of us already are.

Rusty Allen on March 31, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Many? Where at?

In Michigan I’ve found ZERO Sketchy supporters working to get him elected. Maybe they are all in Mass.? /s

DannoJyd on April 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Given a reasonable electoral environment and better performance from the candidate (not too much to expect, I think), the Republican is virtually certain to pick up IN, FL, VA, NC, and NV, plus the 6 electoral votes added to McCain’s states from the last election. That’s a minimum of 252, not 238.

The result then has a fairly high degree of confidence (I’d say 80% plus) of falling in the 252-286 range, one way or the other. Really, it will all come down to OH, although I expect the Republicans will also push in IA, NH, CO, and perhaps MN, WI and PA as well, just to broaden the playing field.

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 12:50 AM

2010 is not 2012. Candidates in 2010 are relative new candidates, with limited record for the Democrats to demonize. Since the post-midterm attack to Palin in 2011, the Tea Party have become least enthusiastic. With Romney as the nominee, expect the worst. Or unless you’re part of those in the GOP-E living in tralala.

TheAlamos on April 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

as long as you vote in november for mitt your ok

gerrym51 on March 31, 2012 at 11:04 PM

But I’m not going to.

Does that mean I’m *GASP* NOT OKAY?!

Dunedainn on April 1, 2012 at 12:18 PM

2010 is not 2012.

TheAlamos on April 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

All of my presidential electoral estimates would be based on a comparison to 2008, not 2010. It would be hard to argue that things won’t be at least a little bit better than the perfect storm of 2008 this time.

The people that are awarding Romney a 34% approval rating.

ddrintn on April 1, 2012 at 7:47 AM

You keep using that number. Perhaps you didn’t see it, but I asked if you could please provide a source (or at least a hint) as to where to find it. I’ve googled “Romney 34% approval” and nothing comes up.

HTL on April 1, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Romneycare has zero shot of beating Obama. He would need every last conservative vote to pull it off (why would an independent that leans left vote for Obama light?). Instead, all Romney and you loser Mittbots have been doing is alienating “nutball” conservatives. Too many of us will stay home – not for spite, but for the hope that things will change in the future. The republican establishment has had its way for far too long. They’ve become so cyncal that they no longer care if they win or lose, as long as they stay in control. Romney and his supporters would have had to court conservative voters to an extent not witnessed before, but alas, he and his clowns have went the route of courting liberal independents instead (while admonishing true conservatives who have put forth many legitimate concerns). Good luck with that strategy and see you in 2016.

P.S. Why is it so difficult for many of you to understand the simple concept of death by a thousand cuts? We are at a $17,000,000,000,000 debt ($43,000,000,000,000 if you count unfunded liabilities) and you still put forth a Romneycare. Is the debt only the fault of Democrats?

noeastern on April 1, 2012 at 1:22 PM

All you bandwagon Romney voters are embarassing to Conservatism. Leave the voting up to the adults please.

Decoski on April 1, 2012 at 1:44 PM

how much is that doggie in the window?

/I do hope that doggie’s for sale.

I read in the paper there are robbers.
I don’t want a bunny or a kitty.
I don’t want a parrot./

maverick muse on April 1, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Lol. the Rombots are going full Obamabot this season. Maybe they think overemoting will bring us around to Romney in November, but to me it just looks pathetic.

Your boy is going to lose badly because he will not fight. He will simper and shrug his way through the election attempting to deliver flat one-liners. Obama will debate him as many times as he can to demonstrate which approach resonates with human beings. Hint: It’s not going to be Mitt’s.

Oh well. We tried to tell you this man was unacceptable. We tried to get you to pick absolutely anyone else. You didn’t listen. That was really, really foolish.

alwaysfiredup on April 1, 2012 at 3:07 PM

But I’m not going to.

Does that mean I’m *GASP* NOT OKAY?!

Dunedainn on April 1, 2012 at 12:18 PM

No, just that you’re a useful idiot for the Democrat Party.

alchemist19 on April 1, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Lol. the Rombots are going full Obamabot this season. Maybe they think overemoting will bring us around to Romney in November, but to me it just looks pathetic.

Your boy is going to lose badly because he will not fight. He will simper and shrug his way through the election attempting to deliver flat one-liners. Obama will debate him as many times as he can to demonstrate which approach resonates with human beings. Hint: It’s not going to be Mitt’s.

Oh well. We tried to tell you this man was unacceptable. We tried to get you to pick absolutely anyone else. You didn’t listen. That was really, really foolish.

alwaysfiredup on April 1, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Purely hyperbole and conjecture. He’s already shown an increased willingness and ability to attack Obama’s failed policies and leadership. He will continue to do so, and once he can concentrate exclusively on Obama, after kicking the ankle biters named Santorum and Gingrich to the curb, he will focus his attention on Obama just fine..

Not Romney’s like yourself have whined and cried over his “attacks” against his opponents in this primary season, why do you think he’ll be whimpering against Obama? Do you REALLY think he won’t attack Obama with the same or more verve?

Quit being a doomsayer.

SauerKraut537 on April 1, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5