Pennsylvania slipping away from Santorum?

posted at 8:40 am on March 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

April will be a tough month for Rick Santorum.  The primary schedule has nine contests next month — three on Tuesday, a non-binding caucus in Missouri (again!), and five primaries on the 24th.  The two most likely states for a Santorum win are winner-take-all Wisconsin on the 3rd and the candidate’s home state of Pennsylvania on the 24th.  Santorum trails in the latest Wisconsin polling, and a new poll by Frank & Marshall College suggests that his support back home has declined significantly:

Rick Santorum appeared to be the Republican presidential candidate to beat in Pennsylvania a month ago.

With the state primary four weeks away, Santorum now finds himself nearly tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among the state’s Republicans, and support is eroding rapidly, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll out today. …

The poll of 505 registered Republican voters, conducted March 20-25 in conjunction with the Tribune-Review and other media outlets, shows Santorum clinging to a small lead over Romney, 30 percent to 28 percent, within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error.

That’s a big change from February, when Santorum, once a U.S. senator from Penn Hills, held a commanding 15-percentage-point lead over Romney in the poll.

This survey samples registered Republicans rather than likely voters, but since Pennsylvania has a closed direct election of delegates, only Republicans were surveyed.  The sample of 505 Republicans is significant enough to matter, although it will be interesting to see how well this aligns with other polls using larger samples of likely voters — say, Rasmussen or Survey USA.

What happened in the last month?  FMC reports that the importance of beating Obama has jumped ten points to 25% as the highest priority for voters.  Strong moral character still leads, but only barely at 26%, down from 36% in February.  The other two categories are “true conservative” (16%) and “the right experience” (21%).  That presents a muddy picture, and without crosstabs it’s difficult to see how this priorities played into voter choices.

On the surface, it makes it look as though voters won’t have much reason to choose between the two front-runners.  Santorum still gets higher favorables (54/26) than Romney (46/25), but that may change when Romney starts focusing on Pennsylvania after next Tuesday.  The other states holding primaries on the 24th are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware — all states that Romney should win easily.  Romney can afford to try a knockout blow in the Keystone State in the three weeks open to him.

If Santorum can’t carry Pennsylvania, the race will be over.  Team Santorum had better hope this is an outlier.


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Aw Dang

The Rock on March 28, 2012 at 8:42 AM

He will win PA

liberal4life on March 28, 2012 at 8:42 AM

No surprise about that large lead ‘shrinking’, as Romney ads are hitting the airwaves here.
But I don’t believe that that race is that close, either.

I STILL say Rick wins PA.

listens2glenn on March 28, 2012 at 8:45 AM

I’m getting tired of this. Let’s go ahead and nominate Romney so we can lose in November and spend the next four years saying that we’ll never let the media choose our candidate again.

joekenha on March 28, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Adios

cmsinaz on March 28, 2012 at 8:45 AM

If Rick loses his own state, Al Gore and the hanging chads will join his campaign.

KOOLAID2 on March 28, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Pennsylvania slipping away from Santorum?

But how could this be? WaPo says that Mitt Romney is the most unpopular guy in the history of the universe! And there are plenty of idiots who suddenly think that rags like WaPo are relevant because it feeds their anti-Romney paranoia.

cicerone on March 28, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Santorum: “This poll is bulls**t!!”

Priscilla on March 28, 2012 at 8:48 AM

If he loses Pennsylvania and drops out he will immediately begin negotiating a VP slot on Obama’s ticket….

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Bitter, but not so clingy.

RBMN on March 28, 2012 at 8:50 AM

He will win PA

libtard4life on March 28, 2012 at 8:42 AM

As usual, the ‘tard is trying to prop up Santorum. When will certain people start to wonder why the Left continues to do what it can to hurt Romney while bolstering Santorum?

cicerone on March 28, 2012 at 8:50 AM

PA primary voter: You will have to pry my contraceptives from my sweaty, hairy hands.

Archivarix on March 28, 2012 at 8:50 AM

He will win PA

liberal4life on March 28, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Rick Santorum lost his bid for reelection to the U.S. Senate from his home state by 18 points. Don’t count on Pennsylvania being a lock for Santorum.

Dr Evil on March 28, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Ed Morrissey Presents:

“Rick Santorums Hot Air Emporium”

post for thrills,chills,and wills.

LOL

gerry-mittbot-rombot=mittwit

gerrym51 on March 28, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I guess they have to buy gasoline in Pennsylvania.

IlikedAUH2O on March 28, 2012 at 8:54 AM

“They are just a bunch of bitter clingers hanging onto their guns, bibles and condoms” – Rick Santorum at DNC convention VP acceptance speech

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 8:55 AM

He may not reach his highest goal, but at least he has made real progress toward his second goal.

rogaineguy on March 28, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I’m sick of all the attention being paid to an angry, tantrum-throwing clown like Rick Santorum.

Rick Santorum has virtually no chance of winning the nomination.

At this point the only purpose Rick Santorum’s staying in the race and continuing the Republican in-fighting serves is to weaken Obama’s general election opponent and to increase Obama’s chances of reelection.

Rick Santorum thinks the election is all about Rick Santorum.

As a conservative Republican voter who wants to see Obama defeated this November, I say…
GO AWAY, RICK SANTORUM!

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Ah bummer, the whiner is losing.

I hate whiny men.

gophergirl on March 28, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Losing your home state twice pretty much spells political doom and a career ending blow. The media is already mocking Newt visiting a petting zoo and taking $50 pictures with supporters. Now it’s Rick’s turn for a sad ending to his campaign and career. You get one shot to bow out with grace, and both men completely lack it.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 8:58 AM

The other states holding primaries on the 24th are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware — all states that Romney should win easily.

I think this says as much about Santorum’s chances for the general as it does about Romney’s appeal. Santorum has neither the desire nor, frankly, the ability to win over anyone who’s not a social conservative. If he’s nominated, there’s little reason to think that changes, which means his strategy’s going to be running up the numbers among the base – that is, ceding the independents to Obama. And that’s guaranteed electoral defeat.

Santorum’s not worth the risk. If losing Pennsylvania makes him come to his senses and quit the race, then good.

KingGold on March 28, 2012 at 8:58 AM

I guess they have to buy gasoline in Pennsylvania.

IlikedAUH2O on March 28, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Papa Rick “They should stay home and procreate instead of driving around unnecessarily. Elimination of condoms will be a net positive to the overall carbon reduction…”

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Don’t go away mad, Rick…

ElectricPhase on March 28, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Syzygy on March 28, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I live in PA and while I still think my vote won’t mean anything (I think the race will be over by then, even in this strage protracted year), I won’t vote for Santorum.

I don’t know if I’ll vote for Romney either. I can protest vote in the primary. Hell, I might even vote for Fred!

Darksean on March 28, 2012 at 9:01 AM

As a conservative Republican voter who wants to beat Obama, I say…

I am disgusted with Rick Santorum! He is only helping Obama by prolonging the inter-party feuding. Rick Santorum will not and cannot win the nomination, and he could never win a national general election.

GET LOST, RICK SANTORUM!

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:01 AM

a non-binding caucus in Missouri

Can we get rid of these? What purpose does a non-binding anything do?

rbj on March 28, 2012 at 9:02 AM

As usual, the ‘tard is trying to prop up Santorum.

That’s because Santorum is one of them. Anyone who thinks Santorum is in any way conservative hasn’t been paying attention. Religious zealotry and conservatism aren’t synonymous. There are plenty of leftist douchebags filled with religious zeal, and Santorum is one of them.

single stack on March 28, 2012 at 9:02 AM

I’d vote for any Conservative over Romney.

Except HIM.

Marcus on March 28, 2012 at 9:02 AM

The primary race won’t be over until we have a confirmed nominee. If someone wants to win the primary before the convention, they have to secure a majority of the delegates.

If Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul combine to win 54% or more of the remaining delegates, then Romney will not clinch the nomination before the convention.

Many, many people would be thankful for their efforts if it leads to us nominating someone better than Romney.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Santorum will lose PA. He’ll win the rural voters, and lose big in Philly and Pittsburgh, and in the Phily and Pittsburgh suburbs. Even if he ekes out a small win it won’t help him anyway.

eyedoc on March 28, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Santorum would have been far more effective if he his campaign team had passed out condoms with “stick it to the crony capitalists – vote for Santy” stamped on every box….

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Wow the hate is strong in this place. You’d think it was the Huffington Post or something.

txmomof6 on March 28, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I’d be surprised if he lost PA, but if he does it’s over. It ought to be over next week, actually, if Romney sweeps those contests.

changer1701 on March 28, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Many, many people would be thankful for their efforts if it leads to us nominating someone better than Romney.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Like who?

changer1701 on March 28, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Rbj, agree…doesn’t make sense

cmsinaz on March 28, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Fine, Newt’s not going anywhere, so let’s move on with Mitt.

Remind me when Election Day is so that I can be sure to vote for Mitt.

Until then, Mitt and the RNC can stop calling for money. The GOP establishment wanted this guy, so they can open their wallets.

This is the most important election in the country’s history. And the GOP puts up Romney. I can’t believe it.

BuckeyeSam on March 28, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Well, I’ll put it in a nutshell, if you don’t run Chris Christie, Romney will be the nominee and we’ll lose.

- Ann Coulter at CPAC , February 12, 2011

If we nominate Romney, we have already lost the November general election.

Brokered convention or bust!

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Wow the hate is strong in this place. You’d think it was the Huffington Post or something.

txmomof6 on March 28, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Yes those ABRs are real Debbie Downwers. If they would just consider the sunshine of a Romney administration they would be singing “tommorow tommorow” all the time!

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:07 AM

If Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul combine to win 54% or more of the remaining delegates, then Romney will not clinch the nomination before the convention.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:03 AM

And, should it ever come to that (it won’t, by the way), Paul simply throws his delegates as well as a full-throated endorsement to Romney and ends the charade on the first day.

KingGold on March 28, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Many, many people would be thankful for their efforts if it leads to us nominating someone better than Romney.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Like who?

changer1701 on March 28, 2012 at 9:06 AM

ITGuy is a birther who thinks Sarah Palin is the one to save us all.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM

I actually live in Pennsylvania and Ricky will NOT be getting my vote.

ManWithNoName on March 28, 2012 at 9:13 AM

If Santorum can’t carry Pennsylvania, the race will be over. Team Santorum had better hope this is an outlier.

It will be over when Mitt sweeps WTA Primaries in WI, MD and DC next Tuesday.

Basilsbest on March 28, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Wow the hate is strong in this place. You’d think it was the Huffington Post or something.

txmomof6 on March 28, 2012 at 9:05 AM

It’s nothing compared to the paranoid, vitriolic gibberish coming from the ABR misfits.

cicerone on March 28, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Many, many people would be thankful for their efforts if it leads to us nominating someone better than Romney.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Yeah, liberals.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I’m getting tired of this. Let’s go ahead and nominate Romney so we can lose in November and spend the next four years saying that we’ll never let the media choose our candidate again.

Yes, the ‘media’ casting all those extra millions of votes for Romney! Damn them and their bull___!

Conspiracy theories are for liberals and Ron Paul fans.

And if you think somehow that Santorum is more likely to defeat Obama in November, you clearly don’t know any independents or Democrats. They’re positively *rabid* over Santorum, spreading all kinds of wild and untrue things about him that they believe even after finding them false on snopes.com. In their view Santorum is pure evil and they will do anything they can to stop him from winning. There’s absolutely no way he can beat Obama.

pjaromin on March 28, 2012 at 9:15 AM

ITGuy is a birther who thinks Sarah Palin is the one to save us all.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Actually ITGuy posts thoughtful opinion based on reasoned conclusions. Whether one agrees or not, at least you can follow his logic and understand his position.

As opposed to emotional posts completely devoid of fact and logic like this…

I am disgusted with Rick Santorum! He is only helping Obama by prolonging the inter-party feuding. Rick Santorum will not and cannot win the nomination, and he could never win a national general election.

GET LOST, RICK SANTORUM!

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Lost in Jersey on March 28, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Losing your home state twice pretty much spells political doom and a career ending blow. The media is already mocking Newt visiting a petting zoo and taking $50 pictures with supporters. Now it’s Rick’s turn for a sad ending to his campaign and career. You get one shot to bow out with grace, and both men completely lack it.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 8:58 AM

They’re both doing it to pad their post election books, and I guarantee you that regardless of the outcome, they’ll both try to take credit for the win because, “their participation made Romney stronger”, or in the event of a loss, it’ll be, “Well, if I had been the candidate…”.

BettyRuth on March 28, 2012 at 9:17 AM

NA NA NA NA HEY HEY HEY GOODBYE

steel guy on March 28, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Lost in Jersey on March 28, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Those GPS devices made by ABR inc will get you lost every time.

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Ed Morrissey, for the good of the country and the good of the party, will you call on Rick Santorum to end his Obama-supported presidential campaign if he loses all three states next Tuesday?

Do you want to see a GOP convention fight? This is exactly what the Obama campaign would love.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:19 AM

GET LOST, RICK SANTORUM!

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:01 AM

.
No.

Next . . . . . .

listens2glenn on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

They’re both doing it to pad their post election books, and I guarantee you that regardless of the outcome, they’ll both try to take credit for the win because, “their participation made Romney stronger”, or in the event of a loss, it’ll be, “Well, if I had been the candidate…”.

BettyRuth on March 28, 2012 at 9:17 AM

When was the last time you heard a failed candidate say, “Well, if I had been the candidate…”? Cite me one example.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Like who?

changer1701 on March 28, 2012 at 9:06 AM

A brokered convention could see the formation of a Romney/Paul alliance vs. a Santorum/Gingrich alliance, but I personally think that there will be so much bad blood between them that it’s possible that no 1 of them can secure a majority vote of the delegates, forcing a look to someone else. It would need to be someone who has already run through the gauntlet of a either a Republican primary or a Presidential general election campaign. look back to 2008, and two names come to mind… Huckabee and Palin.

I think a Huckabee/Palin ticket would kick Obama/Biden butt, and it would also be insurance against the possibility of Hillary Clinton being on the Democratic ticket.

In 2008, many Romney supporters HATED Huckabee, but many of them have toned that down after seeing how fairly Huckabee treated Romney in this 2012 campaign.

Anyone who goes back and looks at Huckabee’s 2008 campaign stand on the issues has to agree that it was a very strong conservative platform. Name any other candidate from either 2008 or 2012 who has supported ALL (not just some) of the following:

A) Fences on both our Northern and Southern borders
B) The Fair Tax
C) Energy Independence
D) Food Independence
E) Strong conservative judicial nominations
F) Supporting Israel
G) Human Life Amendment
H) Strong defender of 2nd Amendment rights
I) U.S. Sovereignty

Who else combined all of that together?

And before someone brings up the Washington state cop-killer, read this.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

When was the last time you heard a failed candidate say, “Well, if I had been the candidate…”? Cite me one example.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Really? REALLY? Newt Gingrich? Do you seriously think he could lay off that one? Santorum either. Those are two massive ego’s at work there.

BettyRuth on March 28, 2012 at 9:25 AM

He will win PA

liberal4life on March 28, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Of course he will, he’s got the big union vote in his back pocket!

Mr. Arkadin on March 28, 2012 at 9:27 AM

C’mon guys that’s B.S.!!!!

Hee hee

Ruh Roh Rick!

-Wasteland Man.

WastelandMan on March 28, 2012 at 9:28 AM

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

The whole glorious brokered convention advocates keep dismissing one very important fact. The people currently running have put a significant portion of the last couple of years as well as money into their campaign. To step back and let people who didn’t even run take the nomination is not very likely at all.

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:28 AM

gerry-mittbot-rombot=mittwit

gerrym51 on March 28, 2012 at 8:52 AM

You forgot Mittler Youth. ; )

Bmore on March 28, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Romney 48 – Obama 42

* Romney’s support among Republican voters has moved up to 83%, just about matching the president’s 84% support among Democrats.

* Only 6% of Republican voters would vote for Obama if Romney is the nominee, while twice as many Democrats 12% would cross party lines to vote for Romney.

* Romney also has an eight-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

David Axelrod can suck my left Fluke

Roy Rogers on March 28, 2012 at 9:29 AM

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Wow, you are more delusional than Newt. Congrats!

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Still shocked this guy was ever a serious consideration, let alone still considered one by some.

Dash on March 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Lost in Jersey on March 28, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Thank you.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:31 AM

BettyRuth on March 28, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Agreed on Newt, but I can’t recall anyone ever saying it. Personally, it would be disgraceful to do so.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 9:32 AM

These polls were conducted by fairly obscure outfits. I want to see what Gallup, or especially Rasmussen have to say, before writing Santorum off as a goner.

Scriptor on March 28, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I’m sick of all the attention being paid to an angry, tantrum-throwing clown like Rick Santorum.

Rick Santorum has virtually no chance of winning the nomination.

At this point the only purpose Rick Santorum’s staying in the race and continuing the Republican in-fighting serves is to weaken Obama’s general election opponent and to increase Obama’s chances of reelection.

Rick Santorum thinks the election is all about Rick Santorum.

As a conservative Republican voter who wants to see Obama defeated this November, I say…
GO AWAY, RICK SANTORUM!

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 8:57 AM

And you and your severely negative and nasty personal attacks against all Republicans and anyone who questions that Romney isn’t the second coming is the reason those of us who used to be Republicans (for almost 50 years) know that there’s no place for us in Romney’s party. You and your coherts have told us we’re stupid, idiots, bigots, liars, sub-human. Your candidate has conducted the most vicious campaign I’ve ever seen in a Republican primary and I remember the Goldwater-Rockerfeller campaign.

You know those middle of the road Independents Romney’s throwing all us old time Republicans under the bus for? THEY’re not much liking Mitt either. He’s one nasty number…the Rahm Emmanual of Mass. He hates conservatives, Christians, Catholics and his people mock Jesus, the Virgin Mary, pastors and Southerners. He don’t want no stinkin’ redneck vote—even if that redneck has an advanced degree.

Portia46 on March 28, 2012 at 9:35 AM

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Can’t say I’d be too excited about a Huckster nomination. On paper I’ll agree he appears to be a good choice, but I don’t think he could generate the enthusiasm to drag us over the finish line.

Part of my issue with him (now as well as in 2008) is that I personally don’t see him as having the guts to take on all those issues substantively if elected. Supporting them is great, but being able to affect them is a steeper hill to climb.

Lost in Jersey on March 28, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Portia46 on March 28, 2012 at 9:35 AM

It is clear you have spent a lifetime polishing that chip on your shoulder to a high glossy sheen…

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Who else combined all of that together?

And before someone brings up the Washington state cop-killer, read this.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Palin on the ticket = Certain defeat.

Sorry, the ship has sailed on Palin’s national political ambitions. After her stumbles in 2008 and, worse, her decision to QUIT as governor half way through her first term, she is finished as a serious contender for the presidency or vice presidency.

Let’s quit dwelling on unelectable candidates like Palin and Santorum. Palin is probably a wonderful woman to know, but she is not presidential or even vice presidential material. She STILL hasn’t risen her game to the level of being able to articulate policy positions in a detailed and believable way in tv interviews. The fact that she has to resort to childish phrases like “panties in a wad” only diminishes her in stature.

Worse still, Palin has been encouraging the Republican in-fighting to continue during the primary season, all the while dropping hints that “the door remains open” to her making herself available as a candidate at the convention, should the opportunity arise.

Palin has undermined our ACTUAL candidates who had the guts to enter the race, and she fires up Obama’s base as much as she energizes Republican voters, though it seems that even Republican voters are somewhat souring on Palin’s overused, folksy shtick.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Really? REALLY? Newt Gingrich? Do you seriously think he could lay off that one? Santorum either. Those are two massive ego’s at work there.

BettyRuth on March 28, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Humble, egoless Romney? You really want to have an ego comparison? Last I checked neither Newt nor Rick think they’re leaving this life to become a god.

Portia46 on March 28, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I’ve wanted a true blue conservative nominee as much as anybody. I thought around the time of the Colorado caucus that Santorum could be it. He could have been, but defending him against so many controversial statements has become too wearying. I can understand wanting to stick to your principles, but Reagan managed to find a way to do it without saying things like Kennedy’s speech made him want to throw up. You don’t get to be president when you say things like that, it just doesn’t work that way.

I hope Mitt will turn out all right. He’s not what I wanted, but we have to work with what we’re dealt. I think Mitt has the potential to be a good president, and I think the primary campaign has helped improve his understanding and conviction of conservatism immensely. We’ll just have to make sure we hold his feet to the fire, which I know all you true conservatives out there will do.

Galadriel on March 28, 2012 at 9:41 AM

The primary race won’t be over until we have a confirmed nominee. If someone wants to win the primary before the convention, they have to secure a majority of the delegates.

If Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul combine to win 54% or more of the remaining delegates, then Romney will not clinch the nomination before the convention.

Many, many people would be thankful for their efforts if it leads to us nominating someone better than Romney.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Sarah sends her thanks and warm wishes. Those of us grounded in the real world are wondering why an IT guy would think Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul could combine to win 54% or more of the remaining delegates when Mitt will win WTA primaries in WI,MD,DC,CA,DE, NJ and UT and Mitt has a lock on delegate rich CA and NY and will be competitive everywhere else.

Basilsbest on March 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

The whole glorious brokered convention advocates keep dismissing one very important fact. The people currently running have put a significant portion of the last couple of years as well as money into their campaign. To step back and let people who didn’t even run take the nomination is not very likely at all.

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Romney quit in 2008 when he should have been good for his word and kept his promise to keep fighting all the way to the convention.

I don’t care how many millions Mitt has sunk into campaigning for President… only to end up with merely 40% of the popular vote so far. It’s obvious that he doesn’t even have majority support within the Republican party, let alone among the general electorate. If we nominate Romney, we lose in November. The only way to win in November is to nominate someone who can win.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I predict Rick loses PA by 17 points. Again.

EddieC on March 28, 2012 at 9:43 AM

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

40% is far better than the 0% the non candidates you wish to be on the ticket have garnered.
Theme would be Untested, unsure and uncertain at best

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:46 AM

At least Santorum only has 1 “home state” to worry about. Romney has 5 (according to the media which includes Hot Gas).

rhombus on March 28, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I wonder if Mitt’s appeal in this election will be similar to his win in Massachusetts- Only Romney could balance their budget, and the libs knew it, so they voted him in to do a dirty job the left politically could not do. I think Romney is going to get a significant amount of support from both sides of the aisle, with people hoping he can pull the economy out of the toilet. Only Nixon could go to China, etc. Will he do it? Who knows. I think Romney will cause conservatives considerable weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth- but he just may be able to turn the ship around. If he can do that, more power to him. I think whoever gets the nom, if they win the election, is going to have a nasty job ahead.

Kristamatic on March 28, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Last I checked neither Newt nor Rick think they’re leaving this life to become a god.

Portia46 on March 28, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Such continued anti-Mormon bigotry reveals that many of these haters are nothing but low-class bigoted trash.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Those of us grounded in the real world are wondering why an IT guy would think Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul could combine to win 54% or more of the remaining delegates when Mitt will win WTA primaries in WI,MD,DC,CA,DE, NJ and UT and Mitt has a lock on delegate rich CA and NY and will be competitive everywhere else.

Basilsbest on March 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Answer: IT guys don’t take math in school.

hanzblinx on March 28, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Nice try, Rick, but when the hometown folks dis you it’s over. Rick was never more than Social Conservative™. He has no other real qualifications. It’s time to focus on defeating One-bama.

Romney/West 2012 because America will not survive 4 more years of One-bama.

NickDeringer on March 28, 2012 at 9:49 AM

At least Santorum only has 1 “home state” to worry about. Romney has 5 (according to the media which includes Hot Gas).

rhombus on March 28, 2012 at 9:47 AM

And somehow managed to win them all, which should tell you something about the unholy alliance of True Conservatives and the left and how impotent they’ve actually been in this election cycle.

KingGold on March 28, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Only Romney could balance their budget, and the libs knew it, so they voted him in to do a dirty job the left politically could not do.
Kristamatic on March 28, 2012 at 9:48 AM

This is not unusual in Massachusetts and other blue states. Jersey did the same thing with Christie. Once the dirty job is over, though, liberals go right back to their feel-good, spend-too-much hacks and the cycle repeats.

rhombus on March 28, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Those of us grounded in the real world are wondering why an IT guy would think Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul could combine to win 54% or more of the remaining delegates when Mitt will win WTA primaries in WI,MD,DC,CA,DE, NJ and UT and Mitt has a lock on delegate rich CA and NY and will be competitive everywhere else.

Basilsbest on March 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I haven’t added it all up, but if Mitt wins everywhere that you think he will win, then he will likely be close to 1144. If he gets to 1144 pledged delegates, then he wins the nomination. If he does, so be it.

But the voters in those states may want to think twice about whether or not they really want to nominate Romney, who has a proven track record of breaking promises, lying about his motivations (terrorism had NOTHING to do with his decision to quit in 2008), and pretending to be whatever he thinks the electorate wants him to be (“moderate”, “progressive”, “severely conservative”).

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:53 AM

At least Santorum only has 1 “home state” to worry about. Romney has 5 (according to the media which includes Hot Gas).

rhombus on March 28, 2012 at 9:47 AM
And somehow managed to win them all, which should tell you something about the unholy alliance of True Conservatives and the left and how impotent they’ve actually been in this election cycle.

KingGold on March 28, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Technically he hasn’t won Utah yet but that’s an expected win. And yes, you are correct about the True Conservatives… they talk loudly but carry a wimpy stick.

rhombus on March 28, 2012 at 9:54 AM

You forgot Mittler Youth. ; )

In my case it would be Mittler Old.

l

gerrym51 on March 28, 2012 at 9:54 AM

40% is far better than the 0% the non candidates you wish to be on the ticket have garnered.
Theme would be Untested, unsure and uncertain at best

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Both Huckabee and Palin are tested, sure, and certain.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:55 AM

It is clear you have spent a lifetime polishing that chip on your shoulder to a high glossy sheen…

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Exactly what I was talking about. You have no idea what I have spent a life-time doing, yet you feel free to belittle and demean and mock–not ideas or beliefs but me, personally. I have no idea who you are or what gives you the right to determine that my outrage at being called nasty, vile names is due to a chip on my shoulder. Are you really so secure in your own self-worth that you feel free to bully and when the victim objects, you blame the victim? Does this work for you in your face to face dealings with people?

Portia46 on March 28, 2012 at 9:55 AM

But the voters in those states may want to think twice about whether or not they really want to nominate Romney, who has a proven track record of blah blah blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah, you’ve heard it a zillion times before by supporters of every other failed candidate and yet it hasn’t stuck.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Fixed it for you.

KingGold on March 28, 2012 at 9:56 AM

I am saddened to report that the spirit seems to have abandoned Ed Morrissey today. Morrissey, who often appears divinely inspired when analyzing polls that, to the uninitiated, seem to favor Mitt Romney, regrettably cannot offer the same level of illumination and insight when examining this poll. For example, the old Morrissey would have written paragraphs about the fact that Santorum is only polling 30% in his “home” state, a far more important and damning metric than a mere 2 point lead. Perhaps it is the lack of crosstabs, but the old Morrissey would have ignored such quotidian claptrap, and written eloquently and rapturously about “increasing momentum” and a 13 point “surge”. There are traces of the old Morrissey when he describes Wisconsin a “likely” state for a Santorum win, before mentioning that Santorum is way behind there, but that is thin gruel for us fans. We come to Hot Air for the red meat analysis, and today, I’m afraid, we are only getting pink slime.

For those of you who want to know what those in the know really think of Santorum in Pennsylvania, give this a read. From what I can tell, the angry, hysterical, profane Santorum of recent days is the real deal; the nice guy in the sweater vest is the fake.

Mr. Arkadin on March 28, 2012 at 9:56 AM

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

You need to get grounded in reality, cause frankly, you are off your rocker.

rubberneck on March 28, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Both Huckabee and Palin are tested, sure, and certain.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:55 AM

They certainly are. Tested, sure losers last time, and certain to lose this time.

Mr. Arkadin on March 28, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Both Huckabee and Palin are tested, sure, and certain.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Um, and Palin didn’t exactly pass the test last time around, and she still hasn’t improved much since she QUIT half way through her first term as governor.

What is with this strange obsession with an unelectable tv personality like Palin? She’s not a candidate. She will not be our nominee. She could never win a general election. Let’s focus on reality.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Both Huckabee and Palin are tested, sure, and certain of being defeated.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:55 AM

truth – breakfast of champions

Bradky on March 28, 2012 at 9:58 AM

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM

I can see that she’s got you all wee-weed up! :-)

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I’m looking forward to voting for Romney in the Pennsylvania primary. Santorum isn’t going win his home county of Allegheny. The people who know Santorum best can’t stand him.

thuja on March 28, 2012 at 9:59 AM

I think a Huckabee/Palin ticket would kick Obama/Biden butt

That’s hilarious. In what alternate universe?

and it would also be insurance against the possibility of Hillary Clinton being on the Democratic ticket.
ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Focus. Our main goal is to get Obama out of the oval office, not keep Hilary off the ticket.

Huckabee deliberately did not run this cycle. I don’t see drafting a reluctant candidate as a winning move. I think Huckabee’s a nice guy and there is no question he would govern better than Obama, but he has very little support structure and probably a significant problem with name recognition among the majority of the voting public. If you want to think of him for the next open election cycle, great, but there’s no way he could beat Obama. He couldn’t even beat McCain-while actively campaigning.

talkingpoints on March 28, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Both Huckabee and Palin are tested, sure, and certain.

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Why should anyone support someone who didn’t go through the primary? Especially someone who called for more and more vetting because she didn’t like who was winning. Not this voter. Tell those two to run in a current primary if they expect support.

rhombus on March 28, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Mitt Romney 2002:

“I think people recognize that I am not a partisan Republican. That I’m someone who is moderate, and that my views are progressive.”

Shake that Etch-A-Sketch!!!!

Mitt Romney 2012:

I was a Severely Conservative Governor

Ronald Reagan warned us about socialized medicine.

Mitt Romney helped birth state-run socialized medicine.

Mitt Romney was a moderate, to “progressive” Governor.

You can’t describe one candidate as both “progressive” and “severely conservative“…

… unless you use an Etch-A-Sketch!

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Are we still assuming there is a legitimate reason for him to still be in the race?

For a guy that has no money to run his campaign, and is supposidly dipping into personal savings to survive on a daily basis, you have to wonder what he is doing? He clearly has no path to victory, no money, and no personal income to support his family.

He needs to read the writing on the wall, apologize to Romney, endorse Romney, and go home. Have Romney’s campaign pay off his debts and move on to a career on Fox News like Sarah Palin.

All he is doing is preventing Romney from focusing on fundraising and attacking Obama (which results in non-sensical polls as the one on Yahoo’s website, that pretend Obama is up by almost 10 points in Florida and Ohio).

Again, enough is enough. If Santorum had campaign money to spend, I would have no problem with him staying in. Or if he were wealthy and can afford this on a personal level. But neither is the case, and he is just acting irrationally at this point.

milcus on March 28, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I can see that she’s got you all wee-weed up! :-)

ITguy on March 28, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I agree with Palin about a lot of things, but that doesn’t mean I want her to run for president. She would not win. Rightly or wrongly, she is a national joke who is terribly unpopular among independent voters. Enough with all the Palin talk.

bluegill on March 28, 2012 at 10:06 AM

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