Pennsylvania slipping away from Santorum?
posted at 8:40 am on March 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
April will be a tough month for Rick Santorum. The primary schedule has nine contests next month — three on Tuesday, a non-binding caucus in Missouri (again!), and five primaries on the 24th. The two most likely states for a Santorum win are winner-take-all Wisconsin on the 3rd and the candidate’s home state of Pennsylvania on the 24th. Santorum trails in the latest Wisconsin polling, and a new poll by Frank & Marshall College suggests that his support back home has declined significantly:
Rick Santorum appeared to be the Republican presidential candidate to beat in Pennsylvania a month ago.
With the state primary four weeks away, Santorum now finds himself nearly tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among the state’s Republicans, and support is eroding rapidly, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll out today. …
The poll of 505 registered Republican voters, conducted March 20-25 in conjunction with the Tribune-Review and other media outlets, shows Santorum clinging to a small lead over Romney, 30 percent to 28 percent, within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error.
That’s a big change from February, when Santorum, once a U.S. senator from Penn Hills, held a commanding 15-percentage-point lead over Romney in the poll.
This survey samples registered Republicans rather than likely voters, but since Pennsylvania has a closed direct election of delegates, only Republicans were surveyed. The sample of 505 Republicans is significant enough to matter, although it will be interesting to see how well this aligns with other polls using larger samples of likely voters — say, Rasmussen or Survey USA.
What happened in the last month? FMC reports that the importance of beating Obama has jumped ten points to 25% as the highest priority for voters. Strong moral character still leads, but only barely at 26%, down from 36% in February. The other two categories are “true conservative” (16%) and “the right experience” (21%). That presents a muddy picture, and without crosstabs it’s difficult to see how this priorities played into voter choices.
On the surface, it makes it look as though voters won’t have much reason to choose between the two front-runners. Santorum still gets higher favorables (54/26) than Romney (46/25), but that may change when Romney starts focusing on Pennsylvania after next Tuesday. The other states holding primaries on the 24th are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware — all states that Romney should win easily. Romney can afford to try a knockout blow in the Keystone State in the three weeks open to him.
If Santorum can’t carry Pennsylvania, the race will be over. Team Santorum had better hope this is an outlier.
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I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.
bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM
Take a good look at the pic of Markey.
This is the pic of a Political Sh*tbag.
ToddPA on May 9, 2013 at 9:25 AM
There’s a 4th poll out today also and has Markey up by 6…
http://www.wbur.org/2013/05/09/markey-gomez-senate-poll
This aligns with PPP and Emerson.
It’s hard to say who’s right given this is a special.
dforston on May 9, 2013 at 9:27 AM
I’m gonna call it now. Markey by 11. Bookmark it and come back in six weeks.
Chris of Rights on May 9, 2013 at 9:28 AM
Brown had the Tea Party rallying behind him. Tea Party was new and looking to prove itself and saw that race as a big opportunity. Gomez isn’t going to have that kind of push behind him.
Mark1971 on May 9, 2013 at 9:29 AM
Gomez is the worst RINO this year, however, this is the same state that elects Barney Frank, crook John Tierney and American Indian Elizabeth Warren, so this state is far from intelligent.
sentinelrules on May 9, 2013 at 9:29 AM
Barney Frank
Fauxcahontas
John Kerry
Ted Kennedy
Ehhh not so much
dirtseller on May 9, 2013 at 9:31 AM
Markey makes me puke
bsinc1962 on May 9, 2013 at 9:33 AM
There’s the right way to do something and there’s the Mass way to do things; trust the people of that blue state crap-station to elect yet another in a long line of pandering liberal jackasses.
Bishop on May 9, 2013 at 9:35 AM
OT:
(Except for the women….keep those sexy toes covered)
Hee hee.
BobMbx on May 9, 2013 at 9:36 AM
“There’s the right way, the wrong way, and the Mass way.”
“Isn’t the Mass way just the wrong way?”
“Yeah, but it costs more and has a smug sense of elitism.”
makattak on May 9, 2013 at 9:40 AM
Given the ideological demographic here, this is sort of a flip from SC-1, in that Gomez has to turn out all his supporters to win a special — which is possible, due to the general apathy special elections have, absent any looming event in Congress that upsets the dynamic (like ObamaCare in 2010). But Markey just needs normal Massachusetts voting patterns even with a small turnout to win, just as Sanford simply needed anything close to normal district voting patterns to win on Tuesday. So a lead that tracks slightly above the polls showing a closer racer — in the 8-10 point area, but not a 17-point lead — would be reasonable.
jon1979 on May 9, 2013 at 9:45 AM
Yeah but they elected Romney, so in Bluegill’s mind that makes them the smartest state in the union. :)
melle1228 on May 9, 2013 at 9:45 AM
I have faith. Gomez can do it! Gomez is the better candidate, by far. Hopefully there are enough intelligent people in that state.
bluegill on May 9, 2013 at 9:23 AM
Massachusetts?.. Intelligent?..
ROTFLMAO!
The_Brewer on May 9, 2013 at 9:52 AM
Harvard is there. There are many intelligent people with no wisdom.
thuja on May 9, 2013 at 9:56 AM
Get a haircut. And I thought Kerry was hard to look at.
earlgrey133 on May 9, 2013 at 9:58 AM
are there any debates scheduled?
commodore on May 9, 2013 at 10:00 AM
Not surprising, the state of Massachusetts, despite having been crucial in the birth of the Republic, has long since fallen to statism and proven itself stupid. Time and again. I have no e faith that the people of Massachusetts could do the right thing if it was the only choice they had and the answer was tattooed on their foreheads.
AZfederalist on May 9, 2013 at 10:03 AM
There’s a commercial running right now where Markey is essentially taking credit for all modern technology because he voted for the telecom split.
bsinc1962 on May 9, 2013 at 10:05 AM
If i were Gomez, I wouldn’t advertise or campaign. I’d shop for an intelligence enhancing agent to put in the water supply.
IlikedAUH2O on May 9, 2013 at 10:05 AM
We should just call him Senator Markey now.
Scott Brown had the Tea Party; blue collar appeal; a Boston accent; and wasn’t in the PE biz. The Democrats are already labeling Gomez as an evil Little Romney out to make a buck at the expense of the working and middle classes.
Punchenko on May 9, 2013 at 10:13 AM
A failed, corrupt people deserve nothing more than a Markey.
MNHawk on May 9, 2013 at 10:18 AM
Didn’t Gomez write a letter to Patrick in support of Obama?
ctmom on May 9, 2013 at 10:22 AM
85% vote the right way is better than 100% the wrong way. Is the a ever to be a bill that Markey will vote the same way that Cruz or Paul do. Gomez will vote with Cruz more times then not but even if the is a few bill that he will vote the same way as Senator Pocahontas, it is the best they can offer for a generation.
tjexcite on May 9, 2013 at 10:27 AM
Their gift to you as well.
roy_batty on May 9, 2013 at 10:29 AM
YES!!! But don’t call it a win.
I used to preach this all the time until:
1) I hung out around here and dicovered that their are conservative solutions which make more sense than the conventional LSM preaches.
2) I realized that the theory engenders the breeding of Juan McLames and others for the media to pass off as conservatives since they have an R.
IlikedAUH2O on May 9, 2013 at 10:32 AM
Likely so but I am sending Gomez some $$$ anyway. A good chunk of Dems (Lynch voters) will go for Gomez as will most independents. Independents outnumber Dems & Repubs combined in MA.
roy_batty on May 9, 2013 at 10:33 AM
I ran to the polls to vote for Scotty. I sure do miss him.
I won’t vote Markey, but there’s something about this guy that tells me he just isn’t up to the job. I’ll be counted as one of the countless that stayed at home.
c.j.ammenheuser on May 9, 2013 at 10:34 AM
Granted, it’s been awhile since I’ve seen MA numbers, but when I had last looked (which at this point is about 7 years ago), I remember the numbers being Ind: 45, Dem: 44, Rep: 11.
Stoic Patriot on May 9, 2013 at 10:39 AM
Bingo! And he donated to both Governor Deval Patrick and Obama while praising Deval’s ‘Bold and insightful leadership…’
He’s also for stricter gun control and supports the immigration reform bill.
What’s that make him? A Rhino Squish of the First Order anywhere else, but here in The Commonwealth? A staunch conservative.
CaptFlood on May 9, 2013 at 10:54 AM
I think the Commonwealth of Mass should resurrect
the Black Oldsmobile that sustained “flood damage”
quite a few years ago, and run that.
The perfect symbol for the Blithering Idiots who vote
in that state.
ToddPA on May 9, 2013 at 11:04 AM
Glad to see the Bald Avenger has returned to his true calling-analytics!
President Romney will finally get the Senate he deserves!
tommyhawk on May 9, 2013 at 11:36 AM
It would be racist to vote against Gomez. That’s the lesson I’ve learned from my betters in the Demedia.
juliesa on May 9, 2013 at 11:37 AM
that race is over, mass will go for the leftist guy for sure. if they’ll take a liar like warren over an honest, but squishy rino like brown, their fate is sealed.
I honestly don’t know how boston gets a reputation for being “strong” and tough, when all they do there is cry for their government handouts. such a helpless group of people that can’t live without assistance. they consistently vote for dishonest, immoral, self-serving politicians, clearly they’re voting for people like themselves…
{is what I think of mass clear?}
jetch on May 9, 2013 at 11:53 AM
Must be easy being a conservative in a deep Red state. Try walking that walk here in MA. Watch every candidate you ever voted for (with rare exception) get out-voted into oblivion. Watch your governor lie his ass off, pander to criminals, layabouts and illegal aliens, then ask YOU (who for all intents and purposes have no effective representation) to pay more taxes. Try rocking an NRA sticker on your windshield knowing that by doing so you’ve just increased the likelihood of having your ride keyed by tenfold, and that you risk having your children ostracised by their friends simply for speaking your mind at town hall.
A little respect for those of us still fighting behind enemy lines…
CaptFlood on May 9, 2013 at 1:02 PM
OK, looking at the race from deep in “flyover country” [aka "America"]; Gomez is politically opposite of every SEAL and SpecOps person I have ever met. And yes, I have met a few. From his announced statements, he would fit in well with the Leftist Democrats in the Peoples’ Republic of Boulder, Colorado.
That said, this is Massachusetts. It is an area where the electoral system has been under Democrat control for generations. Brown was an anomaly, as noted, because the Left underestimated the concept of the TEA Party. I promise that those who control the final vote totals, regardless of votes cast, will not make that mistake again.
And, one has to remember the cultural mismatch. Just as his stands conflict with his status as a SEAL here, with being SEAL a source of credibility overwhelmed by knowledge of what he believes; in Massachusetts his Leftist stands give him credibility, countered by his status as a SEAL. Being part of the evil military-industrial complex, by definition to an extent an individualist, and a willingness to do violence against all the politically correct causes just because they threaten this country is an electoral killer in a collectivist haven like Massachusetts.
Markey in a walk.
Massachusetts will get the government it deserves. They will demand it. And will blame everyone but themselves for the results when they get it.
Certain areas are lost causes. New York City, Massachusetts, Chicago, Detroit, Washington, DC, California, the Pacific Northwest. They want Big Brother’s boot in their face so long as they are told that it is “for the children”. In fact they demand it.
Subotai Bahadur on May 9, 2013 at 1:57 PM