Rasmussen shows Romney with big lead in Wisconsin

posted at 12:10 pm on March 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

On the face of it, Wisconsin should be a state in which Rick Santorum should excel.  It’s not a Rust Belt state by geography, but certainly by composition, and it’s definitely a Midwestern state, although one with a strong progressive streak in its history.  Of the three primaries to be held on April 3rd, it’s the only state in which Santorum has a decent shot of winning.  However, a new Rasmussen poll out today shows that Santorum would have to come from behind to do so — way behind:

Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

A new statewide telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin favor Romney, while 33% prefer Santorum. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at seven percent (7%). One percent (1%) favors some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

In this case, taking Gingrich out of the mix doesn’t help, either:

In a one-to-one matchup in the Badger State, Romney leads Santorum 51% to 40%.

However, there is a big caveat to this poll, taken nearly two weeks out from the primary.  Only 51% of voters are certain of their vote, an incredibly low number considering the amount of time this cycle has already eaten up.  So who might benefit from reconsideration?  According to the internals on the main question, it’s still Romney, who leads among those certain by a wide margin, 55/33.  Romney leads among those who could change their mind (not a strong sign), but only by four points, 41/37.  Romney also leads among those certain to vote by nearly the same amount as the overall polling, 47/33, and by six among those not certain, 37/31.

Voters in Wisconsin are about evenly split between whether it’s more important to choose the candidate who best represents their values or the one who can beat Obama, 45/48 respectively.  However, on the latter question, Romney leads 59/20, and that could have a big impact on late-breaking deciders — if for no other reason that they may tend to split evenly between the two candidates, which would keep Santorum from catching up.  That doesn’t mean that Santorum won’t catch up, but he has his work cut out for him.  Wisconsin’s primary is winner-take-all for the delegates, so a close second doesn’t help anyone.

The big question here is this: how can only 51% of Wisconsin voters have come to a decision yet?  What more do they need to see?


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Santorum is finished. Lets get on with the main contest vs. Obummer.

ObamatheMessiah on March 23, 2012 at 12:12 PM

But Santorum can’t be beaten in the Midwest. He said so…

cicerone on March 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM

What more do they need to see?

Who’s going to call who Mr. Potato Head first?

JPeterman on March 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM

The big question here is this: how can only 51% of Wisconsin voters have come to a decision yet?

People tend to want to back a winner and with the media and pundits pretending that Santorum or Gingrich still have a viable chance they’re still undecided. Not that hard to grasp.

lowandslow on March 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Mittens doesn’t mean what he is saying…

… Ricko is going to vote for Obowma, and:

“However, there is a big caveat to this poll, taken nearly two weeks out from the primary…”

.

.

.

.

.

O_O

Seven Percent Solution on March 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

But Santorum can’t be beaten in the Midwest. He said so…

It’s true. Except for Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and maybe even Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is a midwestern juggernaut. Don’t be hatin’.

Esoteric on March 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Etch-A-Sketch hasn’t really permeated in WI yet. Why would any Republican vote for a man who has admitted that the isn’t one?

BetseyRoss on March 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Writing is on the wall for team Sweater Vest….

tpw on March 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Ed what do you think about Ricks apology?

Swerve22 on March 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM

“The big question here is this: how can only 51% of Wisconsin voters have come to a decision yet? What more do they need to see?”

What Ed leaves out of course is that Santorum had been up by double digits. Hence alot of those 51% were going for Sweatervest and are no realizing he is not the promise one they thought he was.

Zaggs on March 23, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Wisconsin voters have come to a decision yet? What more do they need to see?

Maybe they are waiting on a candidate that can holster a pistol with out shooting themselves in the foot.

Bmore on March 23, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Na na na na…

Na na na na…

hey hey ey…

goodbye

Midwesterner on March 23, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Do or die for Romney? lol

gatorboy on March 23, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Rick, stay down!

EricW on March 23, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Wisconsin should be a state in which Rick Santorum should excel

Uhm, no. Romney does well up North and out West. Santorum’s success in the South is based on religious discrimination more than politics. There is less of that in Wisconsin so Romney will do well. In places where there is less religious intolerance, Romney will do well. Santorum’s success isn’t based on politics because his politics are basically Democrat when it comes to “role of the federal government” issues. If Romney were a Lutheran, this primary process would have been over long ago.

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 12:25 PM

How nmany midwestern states has Santorum won? ………….that would be zero.

Tater Salad on March 23, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Ed, it’s over. No…it’s over, Ed.

Ed…you know it’s over. Calm down.

Calm.

CABE on March 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Rick really needs to drop out. If he is the team player he pretends to be, he needs to do the honorable thing – drop out and endorse Romney.

If he doesn’t, he will lose, but lose with a ton of debt and no chance of ever being able to run for anything again because he is alienating a lot of Republicans with his campaign.

milcus on March 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Is this thing on? Testing, one . . .two . . .three. Seems to be working OK. [clears throat]

Dump Willard.

Emperor Norton on March 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I don’t care!

KOOLAID2 on March 23, 2012 at 12:29 PM

It’s true. Except for Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and maybe even Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is a midwestern juggernaut. Don’t be hatin’.

Esoteric on March 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Awesome. For these midwestern states, Santy just uses his trusty Etch A Sketch!

Slainte on March 23, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Santorum is finished. Lets get on with the main contest vs. Obummer.

ObamatheMessiah on March 23, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Already chalk up an automatic loss to Mitt. He CANNOT win.

Myron Falwell on March 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Wisconsin should be a state in which Rick Santorum should excel

Uhm, no. Romney does well up North and out West. Santorum’s success in the South is based on religious discrimination more than politics. There is less of that in Wisconsin so Romney will do well.

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Uhm-Yes
If any state has the Repubs fired up in a conservative Tea Party way- it should be Wisconsin with Walker and his Legislature fighting the good fight. If Richard can’t get this state with his “conservative credentials” than he has no mo left.

FlaMurph on March 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Wisconsin is the media’s next “must-win” state (for Romney), after the “must-win” (for Santorum) state of Louisiana.

It’s just one “must-win” state after another.

TheDriver on March 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM

What more do they need to see? The way things are going, I don’t blame anyone for waiting for candidates to implode.

Rick Santorum is imploding now, although his supporters are spinning madly for him.

teri_b on March 23, 2012 at 12:32 PM

It also is a full shift from last month’s PPP and Marquette Law School polls, which had Santorum up by double digits.

One item of note from the crosstabs. Rasmussen asked who the respondents would vote for if their favored candidate wasn’t the GOP nominee. The results are, shall we say, interesting (do note that since these are calculated, there are some rounding errors, which other than for Paul do not appear to be significant):

Support Romney – Vote for the GOP nominee 91%, vote for Obama 4%, vote for 3rd party 2%
Support Santorum – Vote for the GOP nominee 88%, vote for Obama 6%, vote for 3rd party 4%
Support Gingrich – Vote for the GOP nominee 85%, vote for Obama 1%, vote for 3rd party 3%
Support Paul (rounding and small sample size are causing what appears to be a significant error) – Vote for the GOP nominee 43%, vote for Obama 21%, vote for 3rd party 21%

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Wisconsin politics right now are centered around two state court injunctions halting Voter ID and the resulting appeals process, a Federal court order tossing Republican driven redistricting (mercifully, only two districts in Milwaukee are deemed invalid) and the recalls of our governor, lt. governor and six state senators.

You’ll just have to forgive a few cheeseheaded conservatives for not focusing on mittens unraveling a sweatervest…

M240H on March 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Amazing how well Romney does once you get away from heavy Evangelical states.

That’s really what this Primary has been about, Romney is on his way to closing the deal, then he goes up in a Southern state where the voters reject him on religious grounds. The pundits then claim it’s because the base prefers Big Government, pro-Union Santorum, when really it’s just qualms over Romney’s Mormonism.

BradTank on March 23, 2012 at 12:34 PM

The coronation continues… looks like its Mittens with the win…

Time to UNITE and focus on sending the Chicago grifters home…

BTW, how’s that “spring fling” I’m paying for down in Mexico going? I hope Obama’s eldest is enjoying herself on my dime… BTW, who paid for all her friends to tag along?

I’m just sayin’ but not hatin’… she can’t help it if her are parents are what they are…

Khun Joe on March 23, 2012 at 12:34 PM

What more do they need to see? They need to see this. That’ll shake ‘em right out of their stupor.

bloggless on March 23, 2012 at 12:34 PM

What Ed leaves out of course is that Santorum had been up by double digits. Hence alot of those 51% were going for Sweatervest and are no realizing he is not the promise one they thought he was.

Zaggs on March 23, 2012 at 12:19 PM

In polls conducted by different polling companies (specifically PPP and Marquette Law School). Rasmussen had not polled the Presidential primary in Wisconsin until now.

The trend is not Santorum’s friend, but it remains to be seen whether either PPP or Marquette Law confirms the trend.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Already chalk up an automatic loss to Mitt. He CANNOT win.

Myron Falwell on March 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

He has my vote.

rubberneck on March 23, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Related – WTMJ-AM’s Charlie Sykes, in large part due to the Santorum gaffe, endorsed Romney a day after he appeared on his show. BTW, Ann Romney appeared today on what is now All Romney All The Time.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Maybe Santorum could make another appeal for Democrat votes for a better showing…

BobScuba on March 23, 2012 at 12:38 PM

The big question here is this: how can only 51% of Wisconsin voters have come to a decision yet? What more do they need to see?

I’m not thinking I’ll see anything new (except maybe someone possibly going supernova).

I just don’t want to believe these 4 are what I’m left with and as such see no reason to bother putting even minimal effort (like saying I’m for one of these candidates) till I am forced to when the ballot is in my hands.

Betenoire on March 23, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Earth to Ed…Santorum is done.

rubberneck on March 23, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Maybe Santy could hand out helium-filled condom balloons with his campaign written on the sides.

Bishop on March 23, 2012 at 12:43 PM

The is the end, my only friend, the end…..

Moesart on March 23, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Rick’s latest gaffe will put even more distance between him and Romney (to his detriment).

People may be vexed between the Republican candidates choices. But they are not vexed about any Republican against Obama.

Marcus Traianus on March 23, 2012 at 12:46 PM

My first hotair post from my samsung android 10.1 tablet.

Good lord this thing is amazing. Completely replaces my laptop for 80% of the time.

My cynicism about tablets was misplaced. :-(

rickyricardo on March 23, 2012 at 12:48 PM

The trend is not Santorum’s friend, but it remains to be seen whether either PPP or Marquette Law confirms the trend.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Tough to see where else it goes from here. Santorum’s strength has always been large numbers of evangelicals turning out for him (since he consistently loses Catholics and non-Christians to Romney). And Wisconsin is definitely not Mississippi. This one will probably go Romney.

That said, I can’t wait for the media to christen WI the next state Romney “must win.”

KingGold on March 23, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Isn’t really surprising. Because primaries are usually essentially over after the first dozen or so states, a lot of people are unaccustomed to getting involved, and won’t take sides. In this case their vote matters and they do have to take sides, but many GOP voters in the state probably only realized this in the past few weeks.

Heck, I know a few people in the state that didn’t even realize they were going to vote in a few weeks, until I told them.

WolvenOne on March 23, 2012 at 12:53 PM

How come these pollsters never ask me?!

I am not voting for Romney… in the primary. Having Romney as president will be almost as bad as having Obama, so I get what Santorum is saying there. But he is not bad enough that I won’t vote for him in the general election.

Man, how I wish there were some better candidates.

Sterling Holobyte on March 23, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Tough to see where else it goes from here. Santorum’s strength has always been large numbers of evangelicals turning out for him (since he consistently loses Catholics and non-Christians to Romney). And Wisconsin is definitely not Mississippi. This one will probably go Romney.

That said, I can’t wait for the media to christen WI the next state Romney “must win.”

KingGold on March 23, 2012 at 12:49 PM

The way I see it, we’re trying to decide whether to be the 2004 GOP Redux or the 2004 Democrats Redux, and John Kerry won.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 12:56 PM

If any state has the Repubs fired up in a conservative Tea Party way- it should be Wisconsin

Right. And Santorum is the polar opposite of a Tea Party candidate.

1. Santorum believes (and has said in his own words) that the notion that states have all powers not specifically granted by the Constitution is (in his words) “wrong”. He said that the federal government has an obligation to enforce an unwritten moral code over state laws. That brings into question “whose morals”? For example, he has said that the very availability of contraceptives AT ALL is tearing apart the fabric of the nation. The point is, if the states are subject to some unwritten moral code, is that the moral code of the then sitting President? That is highly subjective. If it isn’t written, then it doesn’t exist. What he is saying is that whoever holds the federal government has the obligation and authority to enforce their moral code on the 50 states’ laws. What might be immoral to a devout Catholic might be acceptable to a Lutheran or Episcopalian. He opens up yet another can of worms at the federal level.

2. Santorum believes (and has said) that citizens have no right to privacy from the federal government. THAT right there should send Tea Party voters fleeing in droves.

3. #1, and #2 combined with Santorum’s belief (and having said) that the people have no right to the pursuit of happiness if those pursuits conflict with the federal unwritten moral code.

The problem here is the “unwritten” part. Basically Santorum says that if you engage in activities he doesn’t agree with, you have no right to privacy, no right to engage in those behaviors and states have no right to make laws allowing those activities.

So why in the world would a Tea Party activist want this man as their President? He goes against everything the Tea Party stands for at a very fundamental level. The *only* reason that people would vote for Santorum is because they have a phobia of Mormons. Santorum stands for exactly what we left Europe to get away from.

HE IS A NUT.

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Support Romney – Vote for the GOP nominee 91%, vote for Obama 4%, vote for 3rd party 2%
Support Santorum – Vote for the GOP nominee 88%, vote for Obama 6%, vote for 3rd party 4%
Support Gingrich – Vote for the GOP nominee 85%, vote for Obama 1%, vote for 3rd party 3%
Support Paul (rounding and small sample size are causing what appears to be a significant error) – Vote for the GOP nominee 43%, vote for Obama 21%, vote for 3rd party 21%

If 21% of Republicans believe that Ron Paul is worse than Obama they truly are the Party of Stupid.

Archivarix on March 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Archivarix on March 23, 2012 at 12:59 PM

It’s the PaulNuts that are saying, “My candidate or bust.”

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:04 PM

So… we are headed back to this…

Would you rather vote for the guy who will stab you in the front by being directly opposed to all that you stand for or the guy who will stab you in the back by turning into Harry Reid’s puppet and playing along with sellout kings Boehner and McConnell anytime the stakes are high?

Blech.

firegnome on March 23, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Wisconsin is a welfare state. Of course it’s going to go for the moderate/liberal. It helps Romney during the primary, but Obama will win Wisconsin in the general, which will be most of the states Romney has won. That is why Romney’s team will have to reset like an etch-a-sketch once he is the nominee, in order to win the red states that he didn’t win in the primary. It’s a mess. Good luck.

lea on March 23, 2012 at 1:06 PM

It’s the PaulNuts that are saying, “My candidate or bust.”

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Most Ron Paul supporters are not even Republicans in the first place. Oh, and they love being called Paultards and PaulNuts about as much as you enjoy being called a teabagger. If people on this forum think their candidates don’t need a well-informed population segment that is mostly young, amounts to 3-5% of the nationwide voting pool, and will otherwise go to Obama, so be it.

Archivarix on March 23, 2012 at 1:09 PM

The big question here is this: how can only 51% of Wisconsin voters have come to a decision yet? What more do they need to see?

I live in Wisconsin but was not included in the poll but this question from Ed is a non-sequitur. They have made a decision (hence numbers on how they would vote if the election were today), they are simply saying they are persuadable or understand the possibility of a candidate implosion causing them to change their current decision. This is quite common especially before that ad wars begin to solidify support (they are just starting here in WI).

Now that the Badgers and Marquette (Warriors) have been eliminated from the NCAAs, April madness can begin.

Sherwood on March 23, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Santorum and Gingrich are such vindictive, Nixon-like egomaniacs, I think that when they get alone in the booth, they will pull the handle for Obama.

Oracleforhire on March 23, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Archivarix on March 23, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Thanks for proving my point that the destruction of the GOP comes ahead of the destruction of the Democrat Party in the Ron Paul camp.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:15 PM

We’re waiting to see which one says the Packers are their favorite NFL team. That will push them over the top in a heartbeat.

Deano1952 on March 23, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Why are we reading about a Wisconsin poll, when they vote tomorrow in Louisiana?

Dr Evil on March 23, 2012 at 1:19 PM

lea on March 23, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Lea, Wisconsin is a blue state that has been trending towards red during the past couple of years. Not only that but it’s a closed primary and ONLY Republicans will be voting there.

Regardless of whether or not you agree with their vote, you should respect their opinion. They’re fighting a good fight up there is Wisconsin, so they deserve that much at least.

WolvenOne on March 23, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Why are we reading about a Wisconsin poll, when they vote tomorrow in Louisiana?

Because Wisconsin is the next one after Louisiana and it is a given that people in Louisiana won’t vote for a Mormon so Louisiana isn’t a political contest, it is a religious contest and the outcome is pretty much a “given”.

Santorum will likely win Louisiana even if he stood up and said he was the devil incarnate.

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 1:22 PM

If I remember correctly, that was also the sentiment in the 1980 Presidential race. That didn’t turn out too bad.

Deano1952 on March 23, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Man, how I wish there were some better candidates.

Sterling Holobyte on March 23, 2012 at 12:54 PM

If I remember correctly, that was also the sentiment in the 1980 Presidential race. That didn’t turn out too bad.

Deano1952 on March 23, 2012 at 1:24 PM

WolvenOne on March 23, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Er, Wisconsin is a wide-open primary where only the voter knows in which primary he or she voted.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Because Wisconsin is the next one after Louisiana and it is a given that people in Louisiana won’t vote for a Mormon so Louisiana isn’t a political contest, it is a religious contest and the outcome is pretty much a “given”.

Santorum will likely win Louisiana even if he stood up and said he was the devil incarnate.

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Actually, Louisiana has a lot more Catholics than is typical for southern states (say, compared to MS & AL), especially in southern LA (New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette — the Acadian Triangle) because of the Cajun/French background. Now, northern LA (Shreveport, Monroe) is a different story — more Baptist/Evangelical. The Catholic vote has been going more to Romney than Santorum in the other primaries, its the Evangelical vote that Santorum has been dominating.

Nonetheless, I think Santorum will sill likely win LA, but I don’t think it is fair to blame it all on Mormonism.

I grew up in New Orleans and one thing I can guarantee: if the GOP ends up running Mickey Mouse in the GE, LA is going to go red in the fall.

Dark Star on March 23, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Actually, Louisiana has a lot more Catholics than is typical for southern states (say, compared to MS & AL), especially in southern LA (New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette — the Acadian Triangle) because of the Cajun/French background. Now, northern LA (Shreveport, Monroe) is a different story — more Baptist/Evangelical. The Catholic vote has been going more to Romney than Santorum in the other primaries, its the Evangelical vote that Santorum has been dominating.

Nonetheless, I think Santorum will sill likely win LA, but I don’t think it is fair to blame it all on Mormonism.

I grew up in New Orleans and one thing I can guarantee: if the GOP ends up running Mickey Mouse in the GE, LA is going to go red in the fall.

Dark Star on March 23, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Something tells me that the typical Lourisianan Catholic is “just a bit” less liberal than the average Massachusetts/Florida/Illinois Catholic.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Wisconsin is open, so expect trouble from Dem crossovers – UNLESS there are various Dem primaries the same day. Anybody know?

Romney should make Santorum’s pro-labor record an issue and stand as a proxy for Gov Walker.

matthew8787 on March 23, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Wisconsin is open, so expect trouble from Dem crossovers – UNLESS there are various Dem primaries the same day. Anybody know?

Romney should make Santorum’s pro-labor record an issue and stand as a proxy for Gov Walker.

matthew8787 on March 23, 2012 at 1:53 PM

The only partisan primary in April is the Presidential. The other partisan primaries (limited to one party) are in August.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Romney should make Santorum’s pro-labor record an issue and stand as a proxy for Gov Walker.

matthew8787 on March 23, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Would that be the Romney who was against Ohio’s late Act 5 or the Romney that was for Ohio’s late Act 5?

Seriously, on Wednesday’s Mark Belling show on WISN-AM, Romney was rather forceful in saying he backed Walker in response to a carefully-crafted “trap” question designed to see if he would back away.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Something tells me that the typical Lourisianan Catholic is “just a bit” less liberal than the average Massachusetts/Florida/Illinois Catholic.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Maybe so, but Romney won the Catholic vote in MS & AL too — unless you’re suggesting that MS & AL Catholics are more akin to MA/FL/IL Catholics, I think my point stands.

Like I said, I still think Santorum will win LA. I’m just pointing out that LA isn’t as Evangelical as other southern states are.

Dark Star on March 23, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Maybe so, but Romney won the Catholic vote in MS & AL too — unless you’re suggesting that MS & AL Catholics are more akin to MA/FL/IL Catholics, I think my point stands.

Like I said, I still think Santorum will win LA. I’m just pointing out that LA isn’t as Evangelical as other southern states are.

Dark Star on March 23, 2012 at 2:04 PM

So noted, though there is a larger Creole population in LA than MS/AL.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Also note I did not use “more conservative”, but “less liberal” to describe Louisiana’s Catholics.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Louisiana AND Pennsylvania will both go Santorum.
.
Wisconsin is THE focus point now, and I’m predicting it will be close, like Ohio.

listens2glenn on March 23, 2012 at 2:18 PM

The BadgerHerald says it will be an open primary.

listens2glenn on March 23, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Could’ve sworn it was closed, read it somewhere awhile ago, but I checked and I was indeed wrong. Regardless, even in Michigan where there was a massive GOTV effort among democrats, only 11% of the GOP primary vote was made up of democrats. That number seems to have fallen a little in each subsequent states, so it probably will be overwhelmingly Republicans voting.

WolvenOne on March 23, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Could’ve sworn it was closed, read it somewhere awhile ago, but I checked and I was indeed wrong. Regardless, even in Michigan where there was a massive GOTV effort among democrats, only 11% of the GOP primary vote was made up of democrats. That number seems to have fallen a little in each subsequent states, so it probably will be overwhelmingly Republicans voting.

WolvenOne on March 23, 2012 at 2:32 PM

The thing that complicates that prediction in WI versus other states is the only partisan item on the ballot is the Presidential. While Obama does have a primary, he is the only one on the ballot, though unlike Virginia, there is a write-in line.

At this point, I’m strongly considering using it.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Could’ve sworn it was closed, read it somewhere awhile ago, but I checked and I was indeed wrong.

Being from Wisconsin, I’ll triple verify it’s an open primary.

Voting Romney.

ZachV on March 23, 2012 at 2:48 PM

For those who really want a protest vote, there are lines for Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann (both of whom forgot to pull their names off the ballot before January 31) and uncommitted delegatoin (in both parties, actually).

Delegates are bound to the winner (on the Republican side, 3 per Congressional district, 18 from the statewide) until released by the candidate.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 2:55 PM

…though unlike Virginia, there is a write-in line.

At this point, I’m strongly considering using it.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 2:43 PM

I decided to use it a while ago.

MadisonConservative on March 23, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Count me in as one of the 49% who have not made a final decision here in Wisconsin. I was actually polled for this survey and told them I was yet undecided to who I would support. I am and have been an ABR voter in the primary season. All of you can do your best to convince me but he is not a conservative. So my being undecided yet has to do with who has the best shot of making sure Romney doesn’t get the delegate count. I prefer Gingrich or Santorum over Romney. Each have conservative qualities that I like. So I probably won’t decide until April 3rd as I watch things play out. I am hoping for a brokered convention so that there may be a possiblity I will be able to vote for a true conservative candidate in the general election. Having said that, I will be supporting whoever the Republican is in the general election. This voter will not be staying home even if Romney is the candidate. The thought of four more years of Obama scares me.

traditionalgal on March 23, 2012 at 3:43 PM

This voter will not be staying home even if Romney is the candidate. The thought of four more years of Obama scares me.

traditionalgal on March 23, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Good for you. Anyone advocating for people not to vote for the top of the ticket in the general because their candidate wasn’t nominated is really a Democrat pretending to be a conservative and is attempting to get Obama elected.

A voter that stays home is exactly the same as a voter who votes for Obama. If you have 100 people are you are evenly divided and you can get one of them to stay home, the result is exactly the same as casting an extra vote for the winner.

So they are going to try a combination of getting their voters to the polls, casting votes by ineligible and dead voters, and getting as many Republicans as possible not to vote.

Anyone in here or any other site telling you that they aren’t going to vote and implying that others should do the same is working for the other side. They are Democrats pretending to be conservatives or what I call, “conservatives”.

Anyone not voting in the General for the Republican candidate is a Democrat or is working to help the Democrat.

Don’t buy it.

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 4:20 PM

crosspatch on March 23, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Extra half-vote, actually, but it rounds up.

Steve Eggleston on March 23, 2012 at 4:27 PM