Romney leading comfortably in two Illinois polls

posted at 1:55 pm on March 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

With the Southern primaries out of the way, the next big primary for binding delegate allocations will take place in Illinois on Tuesday.  (Missouri holds another non-binding contest tomorrow, a caucus this time.)  Two new polls show Mitt Romney with a significant but not insurmountable lead over Rick Santorum in the Land of Lincoln, with Newt Gingrich far back in third place.  The local Fox affiliate has Romney up six points with three days to go:

Mitt Romney Leads Rick Santorum by Six Points in Exclusive Illinois Poll: MyFoxCHICAGO.com

An exclusive FOX Chicago News poll found a six point lead for Romney among those likely to vote in the March 20 presidential primary.

Romney had the support of 37 percent on Wednesday. Rick Santorum earned 31 percent of the vote.

Pollster We Ask America, based in Springfield, IL, contacted the 1,933 likely Republican voters who participated in our survey on Wednesday, accurate to within plus/minus 2.2 percentage points.

The third-largest group of voters chose Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, 10 percent were undecided and 8 percent voted for Ron Paul.

Despite all the recent focus on sexual reproductive issues, we found no gender gap, no difference between Republican men and women on these candidates.

Jobs and the economy were the issues at the forefront of voters’ minds during this poll. An overwhelming 60 percent of those called said these were the most important topics for their candidate to agree with their views.

Rasmussen found a wider lead of nine points for Romney in Illinois:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the lead in Illinois but lots of voters are still trying to decide in the final days before the state’s GOP Primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports poll in the state shows Romney at 41% and Rick Santorum at 32%. Trailing further back are Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at seven percent (7%).  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

However, if it was simply a choice between Romney and Santorum, the race becomes much closer. Without any other candidates in the mix, it’s Romney 48% and Santorum 44%.

Almost a third of voters (32%) could still change their minds, according to the poll, which Rasmussen sees as an opportunity for Santorum to make some inroads.  Gingrich won’t be campaigning at all in the state, so Santorum could get some of Gingrich’s support to swing over to his banner in Gingrich’s absence.  More than half of Newt’s voters say they can still change their minds.   Santorum will need an overwhelming victory to outpace Romney in delegates, however, because Santorum didn’t get a full slate of delegates qualified for this direct election.

Fox didn’t find a gender gap in its polling, and the full-field poll in Rasmussen didn’t show one either.  It does appear in the head-to-head matchup between Romney and Santorum, though; Romney barely edges Santorum among men 46/44 but wins a majority of women in Illinois, 50/43.  Romney does better with Republicans against Santorum one-on-one (49/44) than independents (45/43).  He loses by 15 among very conservative voters 39/54, but wins among somewhat conservative by double digits (51/40) and others by a wide 56/33 margin.

If the vote in Illinois comes down to late deciders, keep these figures in mind from full-field Rasmussen polling.  Romney is perceived to be the strongest candidate by 50% of the respondents, as opposed to 24% for Santorum.  More than three-quarters of voters (78%) think Romney would be very or somewhat likely to beat Obama in the general election, while only 54% think that about Santorum.  That will probably count heavily when it comes to late-breaking deciders, so Santorum’s task in Illinois will be to give a positive explanation of how he has more strength to beat Obama.

Rasmussen also published its national poll in the GOP race today, and Romney leads Santorum 37/28, with Gingrich at 17%.  That’s not much change from last week’s 39/27, nor even from two weeks ago when Romney led 40/24.  All of those changes fall into the margin of error, which tends to indicate that the race has become rather static.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

DEAR GOD GIVE ME THE STRENGTH TO ENDURE THE MORONS IN THIS STATE THAT I LIVE. AS SOON AS MY FAMILY OBLIGATIONS ARE OVER, TEXAS HERE I COME!!!

GhoulAid on March 16, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Let Mitt win and let the others read the tea leaves. If they were toast, they would be setting off the smoke detector by now. They are over and done with.

DuctTapeMyBrain on March 16, 2012 at 1:59 PM

When this show is over the fat lady will be crying not singing.

Annar on March 16, 2012 at 1:59 PM

It’s going to be hard to make an impact on voters minds the next few days for a simple reason of the weather here in IL. The weather is awesome!

People are going to be outside enjoying themselves and not in front of a TV or computer. If they are watching TV, probably be basketball.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:00 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Moderates like Romney, and polling shows that, but they don’t show up to vote as reliably as the more conservative voters.

RBMN on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Despite all the recent focus on sexual reproductive issues, we found no gender gap, no difference between Republican men and women on these candidates.

Uh-oh, there goes that “War on Women” meme. David Axelrod, call your office.

Bitter Clinger on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

I see Ed wrote this piece. Why not Tina? Too depressed over Santorum not leading in the polls there in Illinois?

Vyce on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

It’s going to be hard to make an impact on voters minds the next few days for a simple reason of the weather here in IL. The weather is awesome!

.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Don’t forget to vote early and vote often.

JPeterman on March 16, 2012 at 2:04 PM

When you can out raise your opponents $5 to $1, you are expected to win.

Support = $ and votes.

Gunlock Bill on March 16, 2012 at 2:04 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Never got an answer from a previous thread, which of Bush’s policy decisions is the primary reason he messed up the economy?

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Despite all the recent focus on sexual reproductive issues, we found no gender gap, no difference between Republican men and women on these candidates.

Uh-oh, there goes that “War on Women” meme. David Axelrod, call your office.

Bitter Clinger on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

But everyone knows that all the real women, like all the real blacks dare Democrats!

Annar on March 16, 2012 at 2:05 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM

…who’s bills you paying?

KOOLAID2 on March 16, 2012 at 2:05 PM

“Almost a third of voters (32%) could still change their minds…”

Hang in there Newt…!!!

:)

Seven Percent Solution on March 16, 2012 at 2:05 PM

dare –> are

Annar on March 16, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Romney will win the liberal population centers, and Santorum will take the downstaters. So, Romney will probably win.

Lightswitch on March 16, 2012 at 2:06 PM

This CONSERVATIVE Illinois voter will be there on Tuesday voting for Mitt. So will my two sons and my Democrat wife is going to register Republican and vote for Romney also. She is nterrified by the though of 4 more years of Obama. (She voted McCain)

ObamatheMessiah on March 16, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Moderates like Romney, and polling shows that, but they don’t show up to vote as reliably as the more conservative voters.

RBMN on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Exactly

Rassmussen had Mitt up 7 over Sans and he beat him by 3 in Mississippi…

A 10 point swing…

They also had him only winning Tennessee just barely and he won by almost 10 points…

Mitt’s base is not motivated, while Santorum’s is…

MGardner on March 16, 2012 at 2:07 PM

When this show is over the fat lady will be crying not singing.

Annar on March 16, 2012 at 1:59 PM

there is not fat ladies in this primary, only sluts!

nathor on March 16, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Don’t forget to vote early and vote often.

JPeterman on March 16, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I always ask the poll workers if I need to show my ID just so I and scoff at the stupidity of No IDs here in IL.

I could not pull off a James O’Keefe sting since the poll workers literally our my neighbors.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:07 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Finally something we can agree on! When you build a plan and an organization you have more money to spend and will do better in the process. Exactly what we will have to beat Obama!

Midwesterner on March 16, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Money talks in Illinois. The Republicans have their hands out as much as the Democrats and Romney has the cash.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Finally something we can agree on! When you build a plan and an organization you have more money to spend and will do better in the process. Exactly what we will have to beat Obama!

Midwesterner on March 16, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Obama is going to have hundres of millions more than the Republican candidate…

MGardner on March 16, 2012 at 2:10 PM

(Missouri holds another non-binding contest tomorrow, a caucus this time.)

Missouri, first a primary, then a caucus and in two weeks a chili cookoff to determine the rest of the delegates.

lowandslow on March 16, 2012 at 2:11 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM
Never got an answer from a previous thread, which of Bush’s policy decisions is the primary reason he messed up the economy?

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:05 PM

lobotomy4life is not qualified for ‘that manual’ from the main office yet…as you can tell by the postings…if it can’t repeat things over and over…the fecal matter starts coming out of the ears and nose, instead of directly into the diaper. You are asking for alot!

KOOLAID2 on March 16, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Finally something we can agree on! When you build a plan and an organization you have more money to spend and will do better in the process. Exactly what we will have to beat Obama!

Midwesterner on March 16, 2012 at 2:09 PM

You are so right. Obama will sit back and let Romney go all “Florida and Iowa” on him like he did to Newt.

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:13 PM

State GOP Chair Pat Brady steps up attacks on Republicans

We are deserving your scorn and derision…

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:13 PM

…and in two weeks a chili cookoff to determine the rest of the delegates.

lowandslow on March 16, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Sounds a lot more honest than Illinois, lol.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:14 PM

You are so right. Obama will sit back and let Romney go all “Florida and Iowa” on him like he did to Newt.

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:13 PM

He doesn’t need to. Obama already did it to himself. No amount of singin’ and preachin’ will get him out of the mess he has put the country in.

Midwesterner on March 16, 2012 at 2:14 PM

(Missouri holds another non-binding contest tomorrow, a caucus this time.)

Missouri, first a primary, then a caucus and in two weeks a chili cookoff to determine the rest of the delegates.

lowandslow on March 16, 2012 at 2:11 PM

I mentioned this in another thread yesterday. I’m beginning to think that the delegates in Missori will be chosen by a dartboard.

Bitter Clinger on March 16, 2012 at 2:15 PM

And how good were the polls in the South this time? zThat’s why we hold elections, not polls.

michaelo on March 16, 2012 at 2:16 PM

You are so right. Obama will sit back and let Romney go all “Florida and Iowa” on him like he did to Newt.

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:13 PM

ROFL!!!

Yeah, Obama and his super-PAC will run the nicest, friendliest campaign evah!!

Bitter Clinger on March 16, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Hat Tip to KingJester: Link

SparkPlug on March 16, 2012 at 2:18 PM

That picture is funny. It looks like they are playing Rock Paper Scissors. Perhaps that is what will be done at the convention.

jeffn21 on March 16, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Only three robo-calls so far, two pro-Romney, one anti-Santorum. Unless, they pick up tonight, it’s a little off the pace of yesterday.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I was a luke warm Newt Person but now think he should drop out three weeks ago yesterday.

I love HA and will not use bad language.

SparkPlug on March 16, 2012 at 2:22 PM

…lobotomy4life is not qualified for ‘that manual’ from the main office yet…as you can tell by the postings…if it can’t repeat things over and over…the fecal matter starts coming out of the ears and nose, instead of directly into the diaper. You are asking for alot!

KOOLAID2 on March 16, 2012 at 2:12 PM

I listen to Medved daily and he gets this “Bush messed up the economy” line often, but never receives a cogent follow-up to the “what did he do to mess up the economy” question. If he does get an answer it is usually “he cut taxes for the rich” or “spending on the wars”.

Where do I think Bush messed up, besides too much federal spending, he allowed the housing bubble to inflate. I would like to think as the executive he could have slowed down fannie and freddie and their loaning binge. He may not have want to do that since the housing numbers created good economic growth numbers.

Now a lib cannot bring that up since that would indict one of their policies and their government interventionist philosphy.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Only three robo-calls so far, two pro-Romney, one anti-Santorum. Unless, they pick up tonight, it’s a little off the pace of yesterday.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:19 PM

The robo-call computers are getting tired.

Bitter Clinger on March 16, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Maybe they could start hammering the voting public about what another four years of the clown in chief will do to this country

http://p.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/16/cbo-obama-budget-deepens-debt-35-trillion/

scalleywag on March 16, 2012 at 2:32 PM

contacted the 1,933 likely Republican voters who participated in our survey on Wednesday

And so those polling numbers will be incorrect. Illinois likes to call its primary “closed” but it isn’t. The only requirement is that you state your party affiliation and unless someone INSIDE the polling place challenges it, you get the ballot that you declare:

Voters declare their party affiliation at the polling place to a judge who must then announce it “in a distinct tone of voice, sufficiently loud to be heard by all persons in the polling place.” If there is no “challenge,” the voter is given the primary ballot for his or her declared party.

So basically, a Democrat can arrive, state they are Republican, get a ballot and vote if there is nobody IN the polling place that challenges their stated affiliation. Apparently it is not noted on the voter roll.

Since the hard core Democrats are voting for Santorum in Republican primaries to make it easier for Obama to win should Santorum be nominated, expect Santorum’s numbers to be a few points better than the polling of purely Republican voters.

crosspatch on March 16, 2012 at 2:33 PM

So if Santorum and Gingrich lose Illinois, after losing OH, NH, VT, MA and MI, does that prove they can’t win northern states and disqualify them from the nomination? Just asking. I seem to remember something about Romney and the south.

jan3 on March 16, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Go Team Santorum!!! 2012

multiuseless on March 16, 2012 at 2:35 PM

The robo-call computers are getting tired.

Bitter Clinger on March 16, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Actually, I forgot. Yesterday, everytime there was an actual phone number attached to the robo-call, I called it back and if there was an answering machine (like the Ann Romney calls), I asked them to stop bothering me. Maybe, that worked.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:35 PM

There is a fierce battle for last place between Paul and Newt…

MGardner on March 16, 2012 at 2:36 PM

A ‘comfortable’ Romney lead in Illinois won’t do. As a demonstration of electability, Romney should work hard for a double-digit victory over Santorum just to show he can. The GOP needs to have done with this, the sooner the better, and focus on defeating President Obama in the general election. So far, the Romney campaign has strived to make as few mistakes as possible while accumulating small advantages along the way, relying more on the strength of its organization and planning rather than the appeal of its candidate. Enough with prudence and meticulous detail. Time to go all in, show a little of the killer instinct it’s going to take to beat the Chicago Machine. Finish it.

troyriser_gopftw on March 16, 2012 at 2:37 PM

I see Ed wrote this piece. Why not Tina? Too depressed over Santorum not leading in the polls there in Illinois?

Vyce on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

The Romney supporters are almost begging people to just sit it out.

You couldn’t be more obnoxious.

hawkdriver on March 16, 2012 at 2:41 PM

So basically, a Democrat can arrive, state they are Republican, get a ballot and vote if there is nobody IN the polling place that challenges their stated affiliation. Apparently it is not noted on the voter roll.

crosspatch on March 16, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Yup. And, they’re going to be voting for the moderate Republicans in the county elections, too. So, even in Republican strongholds, Democrats can dilute the pool and deny true conservatives from winning in the primary.

So, in the fall, it’s a Democrat or a moderate Republican on the ballot. It’s a win-win for them.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:41 PM

hawkdriver on March 16, 2012 at 2:41 PM

What do you mean”almost”?:)

It is very evident that they do want Conservatives to stay home.

kingsjester on March 16, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Santorum’s stump and victory speeches are so depressing and for all the talk of Romney’s SuperPAC running attack ads, Santorum personally bashes Romney constantly in the media…so he should quit his whining. And while I can almost feel Ed trying to maintain some air of neutrality in his posts.

The fact that he frequently writes stuff like this…

because Santorum didn’t get a full slate of delegates qualified for this direct election.

…with little comment on just how bad a campaign this is, is remarkable. So Santorum somehow manages to pull off a last-minute brokered victory.

Then what?

Overnight he somehow magically becomes a competent campaigner to beat the Obama machine in something like 60 days? Add to that that he can only beat Romney with the Evangelical and ultra-conservative vote and I don’t see how this can possibly translate into a national election against Obama where Republicans will win these groups easily anyway.

Santorum’s a great guy, but a terrible national candidate and would lose quite handily to Obama. Anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves, or trying to fool others.

(and yes, my “Romney for President” yard sign just arrived)

pjaromin on March 16, 2012 at 2:44 PM

You are so right. Obama will sit back and let Romney go all “Florida and Iowa” on him like he did to Newt.

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:13 PM

You’ve been hoodwinked and bamboozled, sucker.

PS: You like that heh heh laugh of is? Creepy rocks!

Buy Danish on March 16, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Utah held its caucuses last night, but it won’t have a primary for another few months, followed by a convention. Talk about piling up the worst of all worlds.

flataffect on March 16, 2012 at 2:46 PM

OK, so I get to vote in our primary next week. I am completely unexcited by Romney’s candidacy. Best you can say for him is that he’ll keep Obama’s liberal programs but actually manage them competently. Admittedly, that would be much better than we would get from 4 more years of Obama (perish the thought), but it’s not even close to what we need.

As for Santorum, I actually agree with most of his conservative social positions. However, the rest of the country certainly does not. Further, those issues are just not the core problem we face right now. Santorum is not really all that conservative economically. Sure, compared to Obama he is, but that would be true of about 80% of the population.

I desperately want to see a candidate who will essentially campaign on the platform of undoing the terrible damage Obama has done to the economy. I don’t see either Romney or Santorum doing that. So my vote is going to Gingrich.

These opinions are not necessarily those of my wife :) who is probably a bit more conservative than I socially but a bit less economically.

What’s really silly about the whole thing is that Illinois voters shouldn’t have ANY say in the GOP nominee as there is no chance in Hades he, whoever he is, could possibly win here. Obama could vivisect and burn a live kitten on national TV and still win 60-40. And that’s not even counting the “irregular” vote.

jwolf on March 16, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Fallon, no, the Democrats are voting for Santorum now because they know they can make him look like a complete fool in the fall general election. If Santorum wins the nomination, Obama can phone in the election in the fall. Santorum will end up looking like a complete imbecile in about 14 days after getting the nomination.

Have you actually LOOKED at some of the stuff Santorum has said over the years? They aren’t going to need to do a thing except show videos of Santorum being Santorum. There is a reason why he had the lowest approval rating of any Senator ever.

Anyone casting a vote for Santorum at this point is effectively voting for Obama.

crosspatch on March 16, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Anyone casting a vote for Santorum at this point is effectively voting for Obama.

crosspatch on March 16, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Bull. They’re voting for Santorum.

kingsjester on March 16, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Why would a win in liberal IL that will be going to Obama in the fall mean a thing? We have another primary where Democrats can vote for Romney? Guess you could classified Romney as the Democrats choice since he would be easier for Obama to beat since they are alike on healthcare for starters.

Voters declare their party affiliation at the polling place to a judge who must then announce it “in a distinct tone of voice, sufficiently loud to be heard by all persons in the polling place.” If there is no “challenge,” the voter is given the primary ballot for his or her declared party.

RNC wants to know why I and others won’t give them one red cent — these primaries are a great reason where they are open or Democrats can vote. Only states with closed primaries should be voting first along with the ones who went Red in 2008. If you are a blue state, then move to the end of the line.

The idea of caucuses getting all the publicity is a joke as well as they don’t choose the delegates to the national convention until their state convention.

RNC has managed to screw up this Presidential primary big time from the large number of debates with liberal moderators that seems to go on forever favoring Romney to changing rules like for FL and allowing a state to caucus right after New Year’s for starters. When debates no longer favored Romney, there are not more. The bias of the RNC in not forcing FL to proportion speaks volumes.

PhiKapMom on March 16, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Rasmussen poll in 4 Core states (OH, VA, NC and FLA):

Obama 46 Romney 42

Santorum* 48 Obama 44

*Was 49-44 for Obama only a week ago. Obama-Romney unchanged.

Among unaffiliated voters (independents):

Romney 44 Obama 40

Santorum 56 Obama 34

technopeasant on March 16, 2012 at 2:52 PM

I see Ed wrote this piece. Why not Tina? Too depressed over Santorum not leading in the polls there in Illinois?

Vyce on March 16, 2012 at 2:02 PM

The Romney supporters are almost begging people to just sit it out.

You couldn’t be more obnoxious.

hawkdriver on March 16, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Agreed. He is one of those Ace of Spades people I think. Sorry to hear your sock was banned from the Green Room. hehe (:

SparkPlug on March 16, 2012 at 2:52 PM

What’s really silly about the whole thing is that Illinois voters shouldn’t have ANY say in the GOP nominee as there is no chance in Hades he, whoever he is, could possibly win here.

jwolf on March 16, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Thought about this myself. It would be interesting if the GOP overweighted delegate counts for swing states (e.g., PA, FL, OH, etc.), normal weight for “red” states, and underweight delegates true blue states (e.g., MA, IL, CA, etc.). Design the primaries to produce a candidate that can win the general.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Rasmussen poll in 4 Core states (OH, VA, NC and FLA):

Obama 46 Romney 42

Santorum* 48 Obama 44

*Was 49-44 for Obama only a week ago. Obama-Romney unchanged.

Among unaffiliated voters (independents):

Romney 44 Obama 40

Santorum 56 Obama 34

technopeasant on March 16, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Are you sure about that techno? I don’t recall seeing such a disparity between Romney and Santorum vs. Obama.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Have you actually LOOKED at some of the stuff Santorum has said over the years?

crosspatch on March 16, 2012 at 2:48 PM

As long as we’re using CAPS today…

See, the problem is I’ve LOOKED at “some of the stuff” Romney, Paul, Gingrich AND Santorum have said over the years and I DON’T LIKE ANY OF THEM.

It’s a BIG problem. I will vote but whomever I vote for, is WHO I vote for. It’s bunk to say that a vote for so-and-so is a vote for Obama. That’s just as DISHONEST as all of the robo-calls.

Fallon on March 16, 2012 at 2:59 PM

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2859974/posts

technopeasant on March 16, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Sanctimonious doesn’t have a chance. Like Ohio, he wasn’t smart enough to qualify for all the Congressional Districts. Therefore the polls only tell part of the story. Romney is the best qualified candidate, and it is getting tiresome of having to listen to the 3 stooges he is running against. Time to wrap this thing up.

lhuffman34 on March 16, 2012 at 3:12 PM

technopeasant on March 16, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Thanks for the link. That’s pretty shocking yet I don’t see it getting any airplay…from anyone.

It will interesting to see if these numbers can be sustained. If so, dang, Santorum has strong case to make at a brokered convention.

It appears it’s in Satorum’s best interest for Newt to stay in the race because I’m not of the opinion that all of Newts support goes directly to Santorum.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:17 PM

It was no surprise that Santorum won Miss and AL, and there will be no surprise that Romney will win in IL. The math adds up for Romney…this is just a waste of time and money that could be used to fight Obama. Sad that this blog continues to perpetuate a myth that it’s still a race. I expect that from the liberal media trying to take down Romney, and Hot Gas and other so called pure conservatives are simply colluding.

rubberneck on March 16, 2012 at 3:18 PM

There are two factors which could discount these polls, one in each direction.

The first is the Democrats’ version of Operation Chaos, designed to hurt our eventual nominee by keeping Santorum viable longer.

The second is that the polls were taken before the voters had a few days to ponder Santorum’s War on Porn and Other Naughty Things You Should NOT Be Doing Even in Private.

Adjoran on March 16, 2012 at 3:19 PM

Sorry to hear your sock was banned from the Green Room. hehe (:

SparkPlug on March 16, 2012 at 2:52 PM

What are you talking about?

hawkdriver on March 16, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Thought about this myself. It would be interesting if the GOP overweighted delegate counts for swing states (e.g., PA, FL, OH, etc.), normal weight for “red” states, and underweight delegates true blue states (e.g., MA, IL, CA, etc.). Design the primaries to produce a candidate that can win the general.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

If you look at the rules regarding how delegates are assigned to individual states, you will see that they do that already.

HTL on March 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

RNC has managed to screw up this Presidential primary big time from the large number of debates with liberal moderators that seems to go on forever favoring Romney to changing rules like for FL and allowing a state to caucus right after New Year’s for starters. When debates no longer favored Romney, there are not more. The bias of the RNC in not forcing FL to proportion speaks volumes.

PhiKapMom on March 16, 2012 at 2:51 PM

They cut the number of delegates in half. That was the penalty.

Still the RNC is really blowing this primary. Michael Steele wanted to generate energy over a long period of time. Pity he didn’t remember that given the media bias, it would be negative energy.

talkingpoints on March 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

on “Who’s more Conservative”, well there might well be consensus here since Mitt always takes the more Liberal States and Santorum wins the more Conservative ones…

Either way, A.B.O. is who I’m voting for…

kirkill on March 16, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Thanks for the link. That’s pretty shocking yet I don’t see it getting any airplay…from anyone.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Because its obviously an outlier- you have to believe pretty much every other poll is wrong, including even Rasmussen’s national polls.

Rassmussen today has Obama and Romney tied nationally and Obama beating Santorum by 6. Fox poll the other day had Romney losing to Obama by 4 and Santorum by 12. Overall Romney does 4 points better than Santorum vs. Obama in the RCP national average.

Jon0815 on March 16, 2012 at 3:25 PM

T H I S R A C E I S O V E R

The coalition of religous nutjobs, red necks, white trash and Obama unions won’t be able to steal this primary.

Falz on March 16, 2012 at 3:27 PM

If you look at the rules regarding how delegates are assigned to individual states, you will see that they do that already.

HTL on March 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Yeah, they do. However, why should we care that Romney gets a bunch of delegates from CA, NY, IL, MA, or WA. The GOP candiate is never going to win those states in the general.

It’s the swing states that count and with that Rasmussen poll that techno just posted, it can be argued that Rick is better positioned to win the general than Romney.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Rassmussen today has Obama and Romney tied nationally and Obama beating Santorum by 6. Fox poll the other day had Romney losing to Obama by 4 and Santorum by 12. Overall Romney does 4 points better than Santorum vs. Obama in the RCP national average.

Jon0815 on March 16, 2012 at 3:25 PM

You’re probably right on the outlier, but who cares about national polls. You’ve got to get down to the individual states, Especially the swing states like I stated above.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Sorry Ed, Michelle, I hate to say it but Santorum’s a tunnel visioned lamb to the slaughter.

Reagan had ideals he wouldn’t be shaken from but he never had blinders on and he was never naive, Rick would make a good maybe great President but he’s a target rich environment (as Romney and Gingrich is) but he’s not so far displayed the steely eyed confident, countering, response to the twists and outright lies the left has thrown at him so far, the more convoluted and powerful blasts are yet to come.

Thirty years ago our candidates wouldn’t have had to contend with the distortion and destruction the left is capable of now, I don’t so much think its his social views (which he spends too much time on) as much as he’s not handling the easy layups tossed his way very well, and he has to articulate the message, articulate the message, articulate the message, confidently, like its written in stone, and counter, effectively, the raw emotion and the mangled context the left has in store.

No matter who’s nominated they have to get past the ‘ugly machine’, if Rick’s going to be the go to guy, he has to sell a free prosperous America that can only happen with conservative principles and he’s the man who has the moral character to make it happen.

And he has to parry every thrust, to his advantage.

Speakup on March 16, 2012 at 3:33 PM

It’s the swing states that count and with that Rasmussen poll that techno just posted, it can be argued that Rick is better positioned to win the general than Romney.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Santorum has lost in all the big swing states. That can’t be argued.

rubberneck on March 16, 2012 at 3:34 PM

If you look at the rules regarding how delegates are assigned to individual states, you will see that they do that already.

HTL on March 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

I will have google that to see what the “rules” are (ie, how they calculate delegates). I believe you…i’m curious. The other option is to have a winner take all in swing states, and proportionality in other states.

WashJeff on March 16, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Voters declare their party affiliation at the polling place to a judge who must then announce it “in a distinct tone of voice, sufficiently loud to be heard by all persons in the polling place.” If there is no “challenge,” the voter is given the primary ballot for his or her declared party.

God only knows what they do in the Chicagoland area, besides cheat and steal votes that is, but in my small town downstate, we tell the poll worker whether we are dem or rep. But, our name has to be on the list of registered voters. If the name isn’t on that list, no vote.

Lightswitch on March 16, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Santorum has lost in all the big swing states. That can’t be argued.

rubberneck on March 16, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Agreed. But why then the swing state Rasmussen poll results?

I may be putting to much credence into a statistical anomaly.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:41 PM

GINGRICH > Romney > santorum

stenwin77 on March 16, 2012 at 3:42 PM

You’re probably right on the outlier, but who cares about national polls. You’ve got to get down to the individual states, Especially the swing states like I stated above.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:33 PM

There is no way that Santorum is doing 6 points worse than Romney nationally but better than Romney in the swing states, that’s absurd. Swing states are called swing states because they tend to be close to the national average.

Jon0815 on March 16, 2012 at 3:45 PM

SparkPlug on March 16, 2012 at 2:52 PM

What are you talking about?

hawkdriver on March 16, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Sorry not to get back to you sooner.

MadCon is no longer a Green Room contributor. I don’t want to speak for him but for some reason (language?) he isn’t allowed to send articles to the Green Room anymore.

MC told everyone on last nights QOTD.

SparkPlug on March 16, 2012 at 3:48 PM

There is no way that Santorum is doing 6 points worse than Romney nationally but better than Romney in the swing states, that’s absurd.

Here, I generally agree.

Swing states are called swing states because they tend to be close to the national average.

Jon0815 on March 16, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Here? Not so much.

WisRich on March 16, 2012 at 3:52 PM

I have at least 1,000 relatives buried in Illinois that just can’t wait to vote next Tuesday.

lhuffman34 on March 16, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Sanctimonious doesn’t have a chance. Like Ohio, he wasn’t smart enough to qualify for all the Congressional Districts. Therefore the polls only tell part of the story. Romney is the best qualified candidate, and it is getting tiresome of having to listen to the 3 stooges he is running against. Time to wrap this thing up.

lhuffman34 on March 16, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Romney has been trying to wrap things up. For months. With a huge monetary and organizational advantage. Against weak candidates.

It is only Romney’s ineptitude that he. hasn’t. been. able. to. do. it.

Hey, let’s get behind Mr. Electable! Even though he’s only ever managed to win a single race. And he was then so far down in the polls, he didn’t even bother to run for reelection. But he’s electable… or something.

IcedTea on March 16, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Go to Dick Morris.com and you will see a state-by-state (ncl. territories and DC) analysis of the delegates already won and expected to be won by Romney. Morris (who is fairly accurate) calculates that by June 6 (D-Day coincidentally)Romney will have 1298 delegates-which puts him over the top by 154.

There was a recent article (I believe ‘Fortune Magazine’)which shows why a Rick Santorum (who does well only in rural areas)nomination would likely be a November disaster for Republicans,

USA
51% live in suburbs (which lean toward Republicans)
33% live in cities (heavily Democratic)
16% live in rural areas (heavily Republican)

These demographics also boost Morris’ claim that Romney should have everything sewn up by 6-6.

Romney was not my first, nor second nor even third choice to be Republican nominee but I simply cannot envision a scenario where Santorum could possibly emerge the winner in November.

MaiDee on March 16, 2012 at 4:03 PM

MaiDee on March 16, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Interesting. I ran the numbers myself the other day and also came up with Romney going over the top on June 5, with a final delegate total of 1269. Nice to see my amateur opinion backed up by a competent authority.

For all the disdain shown by commenters on this site towards Morris and Rove, the fact is that they are good number crunchers, with a great depth of knowledge about this country on a state-by-state (and in some cases precinct-by-precinct) basis. They also don’t “wishcast” (i.e. forecast based on hope rather than data).

Several commenters here, declaring that Santorum will be ahead by Memorial Day or that Romney can’t win the nomination, start with “well when Santorum starts winning with 50% or more of the vote”. Yes, if Santorum starts winning by more than 50% he’ll be the nominee. But by the same token, if he had wheels he’d be a baby carriage.

HTL on March 16, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Hahahahaha santorum tanning in Puerto Rico. He even manges to look like a snob while sitting next to a pool.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/rick-santorum-shirtless?s=mobile

Rusty Allen on March 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Exactly like Obama did in 2008. Your guy spent almost a billion dollars to get elected in a year when, after 8 years of Bush fatigue, a cardboard cutout with a “D” behind its name would have won (and if we’re being honest, the cardboard cutout did win). And he still only got 52.9% of the vote!

Do you even realize that every single critique of the GOP that you have been carpet bombing this site with over the last few weeks are the very things that your guy did (and continues to do), or do you just not care?

Dark Star on March 16, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Romney has been trying to wrap things up. For months. With a huge monetary and organizational advantage. Against weak candidates.

IcedTea on March 16, 2012 at 3:58 PM

If more of the states had been winner-take-all, he probably would have it wrapped up by now. RNC rule changes were meant to work against the front-runner. Michael Steele says that he wanted a system that would be more likely to result in a brokered convention, because that would build “excitement” around the GOP candidate.

Of course, we all know what an electoral genius Michael Steele is.

Priscilla on March 16, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Interesting. I ran the numbers myself the other day and also came up with Romney going over the top on June 5, with a final delegate total of 1269. Nice to see my amateur opinion backed up by a competent authority.

For all the disdain shown by commenters on this site towards Morris and Rove, the fact is that they are good number crunchers, with a great depth of knowledge about this country on a state-by-state (and in some cases precinct-by-precinct) basis. They also don’t “wishcast” (i.e. forecast based on hope rather than data).

Several commenters here, declaring that Santorum will be ahead by Memorial Day or that Romney can’t win the nomination, start with “well when Santorum starts winning with 50% or more of the vote”. Yes, if Santorum starts winning by more than 50% he’ll be the nominee. But by the same token, if he had wheels he’d be a baby carriage.

HTL on March 16, 2012 at 4:18 PM

A general rule for political prognostication is that if Dick Morris predicts it then it won’t happen. I think it will come down to how far behind Santorum is after the northeastern primaries on April 24th. If Mitt wins big, it becomes mathematically impossible for Santorum to get to 1144 and everything but the truest truecons and the people who flunked arithmetic move to him then he has a decent chance to hit those numbers. If though states like West Virginia and Kentucky deliver huge margins for a clearly defeated candidate as they did for Hillary late in the Democrat primary in 2008 then Santorum can still argue his case and he has a better chance of taking delegates from Mitt in the more conservative parts of California.

None of that will change the fact Mitt is going to be the nominee but I don’t think it’s a certainty that he’ll get those kind of numbers.

alchemist19 on March 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Romney has been trying to wrap things up. For months. With a huge monetary and organizational advantage. Against weak candidates.

It is only Romney’s ineptitude that he. hasn’t. been. able. to. do. it.

Hey, let’s get behind Mr. Electable! Even though he’s only ever managed to win a single race. And he was then so far down in the polls, he didn’t even bother to run for reelection. But he’s electable… or something.

IcedTea on March 16, 2012 at 3:58 PM

There were over 1,000 delegates up for grabs just on Super Tuesday in 2008. Super Tuesday was February 5th that year. It’s mid-March and there still have been fewer than 1,000 delegates awarded in all contests combined.

And you’re surprised it’s taking longer than it did last time?

alchemist19 on March 16, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Illinois is one of those states where someone who gets 50% gets Winner take all.

Fleuries on March 16, 2012 at 5:30 PM

“Almost a third of voters (32%) could still change their minds, according to the poll, which Rasmussen sees as an opportunity for Santorum to make some inroads. Gingrich won’t be campaigning at all in the state, so Santorum could get some of Gingrich’s support to swing over to his banner in Gingrich’s absence. More than half of Newt’s voters say they can still change their minds.”

It’s a sad state of affairs if that many people have no idea of whom they’ll vote for just days ahead of an election.

whatcat on March 16, 2012 at 5:31 PM

alchemist19 on March 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

The northeastern primaries on April 24 should go heavily to Romney. The only one that is really up for grabs, ironically, is PA where Santorum’s numbers have been slowly declining. Romney carried his home state (MA) by 72%. Gingrich carried his home state (GA) by 47%. Right now Santorum is polling lower than that in PA, and the calendar between now and then doesn’t really have many chances for him to reclaim the mantle of momentum, as it looks more like he’ll do well only in WI and LA (although the WI polls are a little stale so who really knows what’s going on up there).

Even if he manages to hang in there, your comment about “the more conservative parts of CA” misses, I think, the point that the bulk of those areas are urban or suburban like San Diego and Orange County (where Romney does well), as opposed to rural, where Santorum does better. Very few folks live in the truly rural parts of CA, which is why Santorum doesn’t have much upside there. (It’s also why I used to be able to drive 85 miles per hour from the Grapevine all the way to Tracy in my trips back and forth between LA and the Bay Area.) In my calculations I gave him 20 delegates out of CA anyway, but based on the 2008 results and the way the delegates were divided up then, I’d say that is an overly generous allocation.

HTL on March 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

GO MITT!!

Mitt Romney is a class act and is the guy who can and will defeat Obama.

Finally we will have a nominee we can be proud to get behind.

bluegill on March 17, 2012 at 7:27 AM

Romney also has the big one, California, in the bag. This may be the state that seals the deal for Mitt.

A huge chunk of California Republicans live in heavily populated, affluent Orange County and San Diego County. There are also plenty in Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernadino Counties.

These areas are a world away from Mississippi and Alabama (whose primaries Bill Maher rudely called “Toothless Tuesday”), where Santorum got the support of uneducated, low-income voters.

bluegill on March 17, 2012 at 7:37 AM

Remember the media spin on Romney’s need to win certain states? First it was Iowa then NH, next if he wins Florida, it will be over. Next, if he wins Michigan, it’s all over. Then Ohio and and next is Illinois. He has won all the states the media insisted he wins to “clench” the nomination, yet the madness continues. When Romney wins, the headlines reflect the tightness of the race not even the win. When Santorum wins – it’s all about Romney losing. It’s obvious that the lefty media wants Santorum to be the GOP nominee yet we have Santorum supporters claiming the media supports Mitt. Are they blind?
With a show of hands – how many of you Santorum supporters have been supporting him since the start? (He declared in June 2011) Well, who was your first choice, second choice, third choice? Bachmann, Cain, Newt, Perry then Newt again? How about those who weren’t even running? Trump, Palin, Christie, Daniels, Bush – did you want these folks in the race? According to ALL NATIONAL GOP POLLS – Santorum polled in the LOW SINGLE DIGITS CONSISTENTLY (5% and lower) and only broke into double digits at the start of 2012. Santorum is the absolute BOTTOM OF THE BARREL for those who are ABR (anybody but Romney) It is a shame that Romney must spend all this money now when it would be best used against Obama. And face it, Santorum and Newt know this. IS YOUR DISLIKE FOR ROMNEY REALLY WORTH AN OBAMA SECOND TERM?

BabysCatz on March 17, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Romney’s campaign is robo-calling me to death. I am inclined to support him, anyway, and it seems he will win Illinois anyway, so…
I think I’ll take a Dem ballot so I can vote for Debbie Halvorson against Jesse “Staples” Jackson, Jr. (Doofus-Chicago).

Jaibones on March 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM

when you outspend your opponents 5 to 1, you are expected to win

liberal4life on March 16, 2012 at 2:01 PM

6 ! But who’s counting ?

cableguy615 on March 17, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Comment pages: 1 2