Rasmussen: Obama edging Romney, Santorum in Florida

posted at 11:00 am on March 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Those who argue that the long slog of the Republican nomination race has hurt the chances to defeat Barack Obama will have new ammunition from Rasmussen’s poll of likely general-election voters in Florida.  Obama has narrow leads against both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in the key swing state — but within the margin of error, and nowhere near the 50% level incumbents usually need to feel safe:

President Obama now runs just barely ahead of both Republican front-runners in the key electoral state of Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 46% to 43%. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In a face-off with former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, Obama posts a 45% to 43% lead. Eight percent (8%) favor someone else in the race, while four percent (4%) again remain undecided.

This marks basically no change in the Obama-Romney matchup from a month ago when the president also led by three points, 47% to 44%.  Santorum at that time was in a near tie with the incumbent with Obama earning 47% to the GOP hopeful’s 46%.

While it obviously would be better to have both Republicans leading Obama at this point, keep two points in mind.  Head-to-head polls while only one side has a competitive primary in process is an apples-to-oranges comparison.  The Republican voting bloc is split, and a true comparison won’t be possible until after one candidate gets the nomination.  Also, an incumbent polling at 45-46% is actually a weak candidate.  Voters know that candidate already, and their upside is usually pretty limited once the campaign gets underway.  That level isn’t low enough to be a sure loser in a general election, but it’s low enough to be seriously at risk for a loss.

The internals are rather interesting, although the sample is potentially an issue.  The D/R/I in this poll is 31/35/31, while the exit polling from Florida’s 2010 Senate race was 36/36/29.  It’s possible that Republicans will be more enthusiastic than Democrats in the general election, but a dropoff of five points might be assuming a little too much.

Otherwise, there are problems for both sides in the internals.  Obama has a double-digit lead over both Republicans among women and a wide lead among the 18-39YO age demo.  However, that bloc tends to have poor turnout, and while the lead is large, Obama only get to 56% and 57% over Romney and Santorum, respectively.  Both men score majorities over Obama in the 40-64YO and senior demos, with Romney doing especially well among the latter (62/33).  However, independents in Florida break hard for Obama in both matchups, 55/31 against Romney and 50/31 against Santorum.  Party loyalty is consistent for both matchups and both Republican candidates.  Perhaps the most worrisome internal for the GOP will be the Hispanic vote, which breaks heavily to Obama against Romney (51/24) and Santorum (57/12).

Florida is a key state for both parties.  The GOP probably can’t win the White House without it, and Obama would have a difficult time winning his re-election while losing the Sunshine State.  Republicans need to find a way to put Florida away as soon as possible.


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Did you know that the new leader of North Korea gets near 100% approval in the latest polls?

tom daschle concerned on March 15, 2012 at 11:02 AM

This is great news, you know.

The most important thing is and always has been defeating Obama in November Romney in a primary.

Good Lt on March 15, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Support for our nominee will firm up once the primaries are over.
Obama’s support is going nowhere but down unless gas prices start dropping.

wildcat72 on March 15, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Republicans need to find a way to put Florida away as soon as possible.

Rubio could help do that.

Spiders from Mars on March 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Obama has a double-digit lead over both Republicans among women and a wide lead among the 18-39YO age demo.

Another intelligence test flunked.

RBMN on March 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I’m confused. When did Jugears join the GOP? He didn’t? Then why are we talking about him when it’s the GOP guys who are competing?

Must be the LSM.

platypus on March 15, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Don’t blame me. Rasmussen never polled this Floridian.

VibrioCocci on March 15, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Didn’t most polls show Jimmy Carter winning a second term?

txlisa73 on March 15, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Really there isn’t much surprise here. Just think back to the way Grandkids were coercing Their Grandparents to vote for him. Fl. is full of Grandparents. Add the Southern most area of the state and its not hard to see why. On the other hand, its just a poll. Fl may in fact go his way. They have a propensity for screwing things up.

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Florida seniors are very susceptible to MediScare, don’t drive much, care little for employment, and are by far too senile to connect the dots between gas and grocery prices. I got a first-hand perspective by visiting my mom’s adult community and chatting locals up. Florida is likely a goner, with or without Rubio. It is the Northeast, Iowa, and Pennsylvania where the extra votes must come from.

Archivarix on March 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

What is happening down there? Is the sun baking peoples’ brains or something?

UltimateBob on March 15, 2012 at 11:10 AM

So, again, where is the big electability advantage for Romney?

Any way you look at this poll, though, it’s bad news. If independents are breaking that strongly for Obama, Florida is lost. IMO, by the summer, this will look just like Clinton vs poor Bob Dole, where the electorate had made up it’s mind early and the whole campaign was a waste of time and a forgone conclusion.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:10 AM

I know people will say that Rubio should be on the ticket because it might help with Florida, but geez, can we give our guys time to grow and be tested?

McDuck on March 15, 2012 at 11:11 AM

How is it possible for people to be this detached from a reality that is unfolding before their eyes?
I don’t understand how this is possible. Dennis Miller summed it up by stating that Obamas popularity is a result of the same reason that the Kardasians made $70,000,000 last year….everyone knows its crap, but they buy it anyway.

Mimzey on March 15, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Ras has crap state polls.

Apologetic California on March 15, 2012 at 11:12 AM

That’s not very good news for Barry. Once the GOP nominee is settled upon, the base will unite behind him and those numbers will be reversed. That’s a good sign that both Romney and Santorum do well with seniors because you know they’ll be voting in November.

Doughboy on March 15, 2012 at 11:12 AM

UltimateBob on March 15, 2012 at 11:10 AM

An awful lot of retirees. Hope the spelling on that is right.

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Don’t forget that the Rasmussen sample is very slanted to the GOP in this survey, so Obama is probably a couple pts stronger than what’s shown here.

And nobody should ever be able to mention Carter being ahead. The economy was much, much worse then. More importantly, the Republicans had a much, much, much, much better candidate running against him.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

This isn’t really bad for Romney or Santorum. You can safely assume that the vast majority of the 7% and 8%, respectively, that support some other candidate would come over to the Republican candidate. So in reality you can probably say that when you factor those “other candidate” guys in it would be approximately 48% – 48% for both Romney and Santorum. Not great but not bad either.

MFn G I M P on March 15, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Romney/Rubio 2012!

Zaggs on March 15, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Don’t forget that the Rasmussen sample is very slanted to the GOP in this survey, so Obama is probably a couple pts stronger than what’s shown here.

And nobody should ever be able to mention Carter being ahead. The economy was much, much worse then. More importantly, the Republicans had a much, much, much, much better candidate running against him.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

It’s Jimmy Carter era bad right now!

txlisa73 on March 15, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Why is this here. Because Ed wants to show Santorum close to Obama also.

GO ED.

gerrym51 on March 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

So, again, where is the big electability advantage for Romney?

Any way you look at this poll, though, it’s bad news. If independents are breaking that strongly for Obama, Florida is lost. IMO, by the summer, this will look just like Clinton vs poor Bob Dole, where the electorate had made up it’s mind early and the whole campaign was a waste of time and a forgone conclusion.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:10 AM

The assumption is that Romney would be super-electable if only the conservative base didn’t exist or something.

As for where the campaign is going, I basically agree. I think Romney’s numbers will fall to the low forties shortly after the convention and I think they will sit there for the rest of the election. The Romney people know it too, which is why they’re trying to create a narrative now that pre-blames the Tea Party/conservative base for Romney’s defeat.

Doomberg on March 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Rasmussen: Obama edging Romney, Santorum in Florida

I wasn’t aware that Obama was running for the Republican nomination!!!


This kind of poll is stupid.

landlines on March 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I hate watching election returns with my dad. He gives constant updates throughout the evening.

“Uh-oh. My candidate was up by 3% with 8% of the vote counted, but now he’s only up by 1% with 10% of the vote counted.”

This commentary runs all night until the race is at long last called. Sometimes Ed, reading your posts is a little like watching election results with my dad. We are months away from taking an actual vote. Anything could happen between now and then. And many will. Many of these will favor Obama and others will favor Romney. Let’s give it a few months before we start placing a lot of stock in these polls, dad.

rogaineguy on March 15, 2012 at 11:17 AM

We are a little less then 8 months out from the election and we are going to pee our pants about Obama have a slight lead in polling in Florida at this point? Wake me if he still has a slight lead 2 weeks before the election.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 11:17 AM

The assumption is that Romney would be super-electable if only the conservative base didn’t exist or something.

Doomberg on March 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

If the conservative base didn’t exist Obama would be polling in the 70′s or higher.

40% of the population self identifies as conservative…

wildcat72 on March 15, 2012 at 11:19 AM

“It’s Jimmy Carter era bad right now!”

Actually, it’s not even close. Just look at how much higher Consumer Confidence is now. Almost every economic statistic that comes out now shows an improving economy.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I think you need to actually produce some evidence to support your assertion. Why is it Rasmussen has been far more consistent over the last decade at getting it right compared to their competitors? Not only does Rasmussen win when it comes to how closely they predicted an outcome, but their results are fairly consistent prior to an election as well. Many other polling firms magically show Republicans just about always surging right before an election.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Don’t forget that the Rasmussen sample is very slanted to the GOP in this survey, so Obama is probably a couple pts stronger than what’s shown here.

And nobody should ever be able to mention Carter being ahead. The economy was much, much worse then. More importantly, the Republicans had a much, much, much, much better candidate running against him.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

It’s Jimmy Carter era bad right now!

txlisa73 on March 15, 2012 at 11:15 AM

First off; Carter had a 58 35 Lead over Reagan in March of 1980.

So today’s Polls are, in truth, Worse News for Obama than being advertised.

Second; Reagan was such a Horifying Proposal that Republicans were looking to Gerald Ford to Save the Party from itself.

Reagan’s Numbers were 38% Positive and 39% Negative at this same point in 1980. So much for a “Better” candidate.

jaydee_007 on March 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Obama has a double-digit lead over both Republicans among women and a wide lead among the 18-39YO age demo.

Looks like we found a price in which America was for sale, as least as far as women are concerned.

$9 a month, and you too can have your own sugar daddy.

MNHawk on March 15, 2012 at 11:22 AM

“I think you need to actually produce some evidence to support your assertion. Why is it Rasmussen has been far more consistent over the last decade at getting it right compared to their competitors? Not only does Rasmussen win when it comes to how closely they predicted an outcome, but their results are fairly consistent prior to an election as well. Many other polling firms magically show Republicans just about always surging right before an election.”

Actually, Rasmussen did horribly in 2010. IIRC, he even had Angle beating Reid. That’s not to say he’ll stink this cycle, but PPP has been much better than him as of late.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Given the incredible negativity in the GOP race, I don’t find this surprising at all. Independents are not turning away from any specific candidate so much as they are turning away from the Republican party. Santorum is the exact worst candidate to win independents, and Romney is being forced out of his winning economic message by ideological debates over who is “more conservative.”

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 11:23 AM

“It’s Jimmy Carter era bad right now!”

Actually, it’s not even close. Just look at how much higher Consumer Confidence is now. Almost every economic statistic that comes out now shows an improving economy.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

You mean like the 8.3% Unemployment that would be 10.1% if measured the same way it was in 1980?

The media was able to convince people that a good economy was bad under Bush (It’s going fine for me, but my neighbor must be struggling) but they aren’t able to convince people of the reverse.

Unfortunatly too many people are living this bad economy.

Dream On!

jaydee_007 on March 15, 2012 at 11:24 AM

It’s Jimmy Carter era bad right now!

txlisa73 on March 15, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Its worse. Not in the statistical analysis world, but in the real world.

Mimzey on March 15, 2012 at 11:24 AM

“First off; Carter had a 58 35 Lead over Reagan in March of 1980.

So today’s Polls are, in truth, Worse News for Obama than being advertised.

Second; Reagan was such a Horifying Proposal that Republicans were looking to Gerald Ford to Save the Party from itself.

Reagan’s Numbers were 38% Positive and 39% Negative at this same point in 1980. So much for a “Better” candidate.

If you’re going to contend that Reagan wasn’t a far superior candidate to Mitt Romney, then there’s no hope for you. But I will remind you of your foolish statement when Romney is a goner by July/August.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Having lived in FL now for the past two years, I can safely call it a “reality distortion bubble.”

Defenestratus on March 15, 2012 at 11:26 AM

It’s MARCH!!!

These polls don’t mean sh….well, you know.

Bitter Clinger on March 15, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Republicans need to find a way to put Florida away as soon as possible.

They could start by educating voters there (especially the older ones) about the abomination known as Obamacare. As this monstrosity gets implemented over the next few years, seniors are going to find that they’re paying a lot more for their care, and having a much harder time finding providers who will accept Medicare patients.

AZCoyote on March 15, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Florida seniors are very susceptible to MediScare, don’t drive much, care little for employment, and are by far too senile to connect the dots between gas and grocery prices. I got a first-hand perspective by visiting my mom’s adult community and chatting locals up. Florida is likely a goner, with or without Rubio. It is the Northeast, Iowa, and Pennsylvania where the extra votes must come from.

Archivarix on March 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Then why are they always between me and my destination? Every single blessed day.

John Deaux on March 15, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Screw the polls, every day they change. What would you expect if you poll a hundred people and 75 are democrats?

vietvet68 on March 15, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I like Rasmussen, but this poll is useless. Unless it motivates the ABO movement in Florida.

22044 on March 15, 2012 at 11:30 AM

You’re expecting too much from the party of stupid to put Florida away, anymore than any other toss-up state. The GOP leadership is too comfortable with there worn out strategy of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, too spineless to get rough with the Dems, and too terror stricken of the main stream media by not daring to challenge its premises.

Bob in VA on March 15, 2012 at 11:31 AM

The problem with my state of Florida is we have way too many transplants from New Yohk’. I laugh myself silly that Debbie Blabbermouth is a rep from Florida who tawks like she’s from da Bronx. How you doin’..

Alan Grayson too. Another New Yorker. All these wealthy Lefty transplants from up North. They’re the one’s ruining central Florida.

shannon76 on March 15, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Wait. You mean, “Perry Scheme” had a short shelf life and did nothing to improve Romney’s electability? All it did was make it almost impossible for any of the GOP candidates to have a serious discussion about needed entitlement reform? The hell you say!

besser tot als rot on March 15, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Keep in mind our president has the authority to designate as a terrorist and kill any American. I assume this includes poll takers. I also assume they are aware of it.

a capella on March 15, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Actually, it’s not even close. Just look at how much higher Consumer Confidence is now. Almost every economic statistic that comes out now shows an improving economy.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

We’ll see how Consumer Confidence is rated when fuel prices hit six bucks a gallon in the middle of this summer. Food and fuel prices are skyrocketing across the country. The only problem is government reporting of the REAL conditions is either distorted or not reported.

Rovin on March 15, 2012 at 11:37 AM

When Barack starts polling at 50% or better in properly weighted polls I’ll get worried.

SouthernGent on March 15, 2012 at 11:37 AM

So, again, where is the big electability advantage for Romney?

Latest Fox News national poll has Obama beating Romney by 4, Santorum by 12. In the RCP average, Romney does 4 points better vs. Obama than Santorum.

Jon0815 on March 15, 2012 at 11:38 AM

“It’s Jimmy Carter era bad right now!”

Actually, it’s not even close. Just look at how much higher Consumer Confidence is now. Almost every economic statistic that comes out now shows an improving economy.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Both eras are/were bad. They were just different in how they were bad.

Carter-era saw sky-high interest rates, double-digit inflation, and low consumer confidence. Obama-era has seen interminably-long high unemployment, out-of-control debt, and ever-increasing regulations.

I wouldn’t take either era, but I have lived through both.

Bitter Clinger on March 15, 2012 at 11:38 AM

They have a propensity for screwing things up.

Hey! Could we cut it out with the Florida hate? You can thank the demo-rats down here for screwing things up…And isn’t that how things usually work in every other state? (All 57 of ‘em)

Y’all taking potshots at Floridians is right along the same lines as the progressive elitists (I know, I repeat myself) being snobby douchebags about “flyover country” in general and the South in particular.

So cut it out!

Battlecruiser-operational on March 15, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Any voter who didn’t emerge from the primary with a bad taste in his/her mouth for any of the GOP candidates wasn’t paying attention. Looks like they were.

de rigueur on March 15, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I welcome any positive news for Obama and the Dems. I want them strutting to the voting booth in November with all the confidence in the world.

Barry has got it in the bag, right Libs?

EMD on March 15, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Typical HA comment:

“But…but…Rasmussen is known to be a left radical polling organization!!”

inthemiddle on March 15, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Crap, Florida’s general election is next week, isn’t it?

/

Red Cloud on March 15, 2012 at 11:44 AM

WHAT DO YOU EXPECT?

Look who represents so-called “conservatives” in the media these days? Hot Air is contributing to the problem. Most Americans don’t want to vote for a party associated with Rick Santorum, or THE GOD SQUAD. RICK SANCTIMONIOUS SANTORUM–who refuses even to congratulate his opponents. Santorum is the epitome of the angry religious nut.

Santorum has followed the pattern of whining in defeat and sneering in victory–not the way to win over the majority of Republicans who have yet to join his impassioned crusade.

The other danger sign in Santo’s speech involved its inescapably churchy overtones, with thanks to God and references to prayer at the very beginning and the biggest applause line invoking “the integrity of the family and the centrality of faith in our lives.” Given that Santorum has already collared the overwhelming majority of GOP voters for whom faith is the central aspect of their political lives, wouldn’t it make more sense to emphasize jobs, gas prices, the budget, and the economy?

While even the most secular of GOP operatives acknowledge that a majority of reliable Republicans count as loyal churchgoers and devout believers, the party clearly can’t win in November without competing more successfully among the unchurched. In most states, Santorum hasn’t even been able to win pluralities of fellow Catholics who vote in Republican primaries.

Self-described white, “born-again,” or “evangelical” Christians represented more than three quarters of the GOP vote in Alabama and Mississippi, providing Santorum with his margins of victory, but that group amounts to only one-quarter of the overall national electorate.

Conservative Michael Medved, The Daily Beast [I'll provide no link, you can find it on your own]

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Republicans need to find a way to put Florida away as soon as possible.

I know! Let’s go with the guy who got 7% during the Florida primary because the guy who won it with 46% can’t break 30% in the reliably red states. /rolls eyes.

Dark Star on March 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Well said. It’s transparently clear to most of us. Unfortunately the Red-Meat Brigade thinks they can force Rick Santorum on mainstream voters; got news for you Hot Air. They’ll just go to Obama if you force Santo down their throats.

Me? I’ll just stay home. I’m not voting for Obama, but I’m not voting for his counterpart, Santo; he’s as corrupt as Obama.

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Conservative RINO Michael Medved, The Daily Beast [I'll provide no link, you can find it on your own]

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 11:45 AM

FIFY

Bitter Clinger on March 15, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Those of you that want to keep this thing going until the candidate we get can’t win need no more proof than the Florida polls. A Republican should be winning Florida right now long before the real campaign begins. The process is hurting Romney and there is no way Santorum can win Florida. In a close race, the key to winning Florida is doing fairly well with Latinos and I think the Cuban latinos will hold for Republicans. The other group that is important in Florida are Jewish voters. A small shift there in a close race would swing the state. If McCain had gotten the usual Republican vote from Jewish voters, he would have carried Florida last time (about 33%). Instead, Obama got close to 80%. Romney, no doubt would get between 35-40% of Jewish voters cutting Obama out of a good chunk of his previous voters. If, on the other hand Santorum is the nominee, Obama is back to close to 80% and Florida becomes a loss. You can’t look at the general election polls at this point in time when about half the electorate is paying no attention. Why do you think the Obama team has spent all of it’s time attacking Romney. They won’t go after Santorum or Gingrich (for that matter) because they know that beating either of them would be a simple matter. This same scenario plays out in all of the close states. Romney gives fits and Santorum gives them life. Why people on this site can’t understand it is beyond me. Go down with Santorum if you want him so much. The loss of the Senate and possibly the House go with it as well.

jake22 on March 15, 2012 at 11:51 AM

The following is a piece of fiction by Turtle317, no urinals were harmed in the making of this work:

I set up a poll to see whether it was Republicans or Democrats who were really in for Obama. Going to a public restroom, I taped a picture of Obama in one of two urinals and added the following caption: “Use this stall to state urine for Obama.” Oddly, I discovered that Mr. Obama received greater than 50% approval from all Republicans, yet met higher then 50% disapproval among the Democrats, as they tended to use the other, unmarked urinal. Please note, this poll only sampled men as the pollster did not have access to the women’s restroom, and should not be construed as accurate as to how women Republican and Democrats would poll.

Again, the above is a complete work of fiction not to be used as a viable measure of how professional polls are conducted.

Turtle317 on March 15, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Bitter Clinger on March 15, 2012 at 11:51 AM

God, how sad you are. I’m always a little baffled at people who think if they don’t read the facts, then they won’t be true.

Demographics/numbers don’t care whether you’ll read anything at TDB or not. Facts are facts; and Medved is a conservative who is making a very good argument when he points this out to you:

So, basically, you’re just a LOSER, who is supporting a LOSING STRATEGY in THIS ELECTION:

Self-described white, “born-again,” or “evangelical” Christians represented more than three quarters of the GOP vote in Alabama and Mississippi, providing Santorum with his margins of victory, but that group amounts to only one-quarter of the overall national electorate. In 2008, the born-again vote went overwhelmingly for McCain, but Obama won by comfortable margins among the three fourths of voters who don’t embrace the evangelical identity.

If the ongoing primary battles make the Republican Party look like the God Squad, that identification could cripple congressional and senatorial candidates as well as destroying the presidential contender, while alienating the disproportionately secular young voters who are crucial to the party’s future.

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 12:02 PM

shannon76 on March 15, 2012 at 11:32 AM

.
Don’t you fret none gator !

2010 was huge for Rs in Fla- even for Gov Scott with his baggage (which really makes Newton look like a choir boy)- so for all those worried bout Fla- we did the “Historic” thing in 2008 and did not have enough support for Bush III- but like in alot of states 2010 was the correction. Its true we get alot of northern dysfunctional immigration- but that is outweighed by a larger number of honest Americans.

The liberal POS media has done a good job trashing us in the last 2 years, but people are starting to see through it. Even the St. Pete times decided it was a good time to change the name of their socialist product offering.

FlaMurph on March 15, 2012 at 12:02 PM

jake22 on March 15, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Seriously, it is 8 months before the election Mr. Douche Nozzle. Obama should not only be ahead in polls of a state he won in 2008 this far out, but he should be way ahead. This poll is actually good news when viewed with the proper perspective, and trying to portray it otherwise to convince us to drop trou and take it like good little boys and girls from Romney only confirms just how big a douche you are.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Battlecruiser-operational on March 15, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Okay, Will y’all quit moving up here to the GA. mountains and telling us how to do things. ; )

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Gas prices will wake up the STUPID Americans even if nothing else does. Besides, it isn’t as if 0bama won’t keep making HUGE mistakes leading up to the election.

DannoJyd on March 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Santorum: What a Loser. He thinks the US has an official language.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-campaign-puertorico-idUSBRE82D16Z20120314

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

With every passing day, conservatives/tea partiers are beginning to see the blunder they caused in this year’s primary.

We could have coalesced behind the only candidate (Perry) that had the record to beat both Romney and Obama.

But oh no! We had to have an awesome debater (Gingrich) until debates went out of vogue.

Now we are saddled with Romney and an Obama second term.

Hope you all enjoy it. /sarc

TheRightMan on March 15, 2012 at 12:08 PM

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Perhaps, but it is a very important one quarter of the electorate, can’t win without it. See yankees. I will provide no link either. : )

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 12:08 PM

When the White House controls the media what do you think the news will be?

mixplix on March 15, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Okay, Will y’all quit moving up here to the GA. mountains and telling us how to do things. ; )

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM

LOL- But that’s probably not your native Floridian…. probably more likely those transpants from the 6th borough of NYC (Broward/Dade)

FlaMurph on March 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Rubio could help do that.

Spiders from Mars on March 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Rubio is a former Mormon. He is getting nowhere near the ticket

liberal4life on March 15, 2012 at 12:18 PM

They’ll just go to Obama if you force Santo down their throats.

Absolutely. Every reliable political analyst on the right and the left knows that this election will be decided by independents. But the base of the Republican party is bound and determined to make sure that the one candidate that they have who can actually win that vote is defeated.

There is no way that a sane GOP will nominate Santorum. I think that Newt knows that, hence his Hail Mary strategy of hanging in until the convention, on the chance that Romney will be rejected or withdraw, and he will remain the only viable candidate. It’s crazy and suicidal to the party, but, frankly, not as suicidal as nominating Santorum.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:18 PM

FlaMurph on March 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

; )

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Absolutely. Every reliable political analyst on the right and the left…

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Don’t we know it. Those “geniuses” pimped that winner McCain as well.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Don’t we know it. Those “geniuses” pimped that winner McCain as well.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Umm, no.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

So, in just passing by someone in the street…if your greeting is Hello STUPID!…more than half the time, you would be correct?

KOOLAID2 on March 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Umm, no.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Umm, yes.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Umm, no.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Umm, yes.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Umm, maybe?

Bmore on March 15, 2012 at 12:34 PM

IMO, by the summer, this will look just like Clinton vs poor Bob Dole, where the electorate had made up it’s mind early and the whole campaign was a waste of time and a forgone conclusion.

gumbyandpokey on March 15, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Two points…..

Clinton beat Dole by 49% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot getting 9% of the vote.

Secondly, Bill Clinton’s approval ratings were above 50% from February of his re election campaign year until he won re election. Obama’s aggregate job approval rating is 47.1 today in the RCP average of polls, and Obama, in his re election campaign year, just registered his lowest approval rating of his presidency in the latest CBS poll, with just 41% percent approval. And this is during a contentious republican primary, a split republican field ,and an undetermined republican nominee.

I don’t understand the Obama /Clinton comparison here.

Cavalry on March 15, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Umm, no.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM
Umm, yes.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Ok, let’s use the example of an analyst like Jay Cost…or Scott Elliot at “Election Projection.” Both are conswervatives, both pegged the last two presidential elections pretty much on the money. Neither pimped anyone. Perhaps you mistook my using the term “analyst” to mean “pundit.” Or perhaps you just didn’t want to understand.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Given the incredible negativity in the GOP race, I don’t find this surprising at all. Independents are not turning away from any specific candidate so much as they are turning away from the Republican party.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 11:23 AM

You ridiculous Mittbots and your unhinged obsession with Newt and Santorum and this primary. It’s not the incredible “negativity’ in the race bringing GOP candidates numbers down–it’s an entire media establishment doing that to ensure an Obama second term. Why can’t you imbeciles get that? Your guy has been portrayed more out of touch my the media than he has by his conservative competitors–fact.

Romney’s made this far too easy with his easily-parodied, painful attempts to connect to people–the singing, the poetry reciting, the variety show he’s taken to the road to convince people he’s one of them. He doesn’t appear comfortable in his own skin on the stump, comfortable with his success, wealth, unique personality. He’s a candidate refusing to be himself and is being badly handled in southern/midwestern states.

Put the blame where it should go and stop your ludicrous and incessant hand-wringing over this primary process.

Your enemies are not Mitt’s opponents nor are they the Tea Party or Social Conservatives. Wake the fark up.

RepubChica on March 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

I don’t understand the Obama /Clinton comparison here.

Cavalry on March 15, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Wasn’t Obama supposed to also become the second great triangulator after the 2010 election?

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Your enemies are not Mitt’s opponents nor are they the Tea Party or Social Conservatives. Wake the fark up.

RepubChica on March 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

And your enemies are not Mittbots.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:47 PM

My enemy is anyone who tries to sell me a sh!t sandwich while calling it caviar on toast.

NotCoach on March 15, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Here I am……right on cue………

…..with the Mother of all political polls.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-CARTER-NOW-FAR-AHEAD-OF-BOTH-REAGAN-AND-BUSH-1980-01.pdf

“President Carter dominates the political scene” was the theme of the poll….

…..and he lost in a LANDSLIDE (even with a third party run by a former republican).

PappyD61 on March 15, 2012 at 12:55 PM

And your enemies are not Mittbots.

Priscilla on March 15, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Fully aware of this, Priscilla, if you got the gist of my post. I’m merely trying to do some intervention work here to get through some of your thick skulls (Not all Mitt supporters, mind you. I’m not speaking about the rational ones).

There is only one enemy we should be all laser-focused on keeping in check and that enemy is the biggest elephant in the room you guys never seem to acknowledge or want to engage but will be faced with soon enough when Romney becomes our nominee, but I get it, religious “rubes” and Tea Party members are safe, small targets to vent against in your times of angst during the primary. And these are the very people whose passion, rage, keen sense of injustice and strength you will come to rely on when the sh*t hits the fan for Mitt soon enough.

RepubChica on March 15, 2012 at 12:59 PM

rogaineguy on March 15, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Lol. At least you compared Ed to someone you love, unlike the bashing he’s been getting from certain quarters lately.

Lightswitch on March 15, 2012 at 12:59 PM

How far was Reagan behind Carter in March?

kozmo on March 15, 2012 at 1:02 PM

This poll is total BS. Rasmussen just had Romney beating Obama nationally by 5 points. There is no way he can win by 5 and lose Florida by 3 points. Who are these idiots he is polling?

The Good Doctor on March 15, 2012 at 1:04 PM

PappyD61 on March 15, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Thanks, Pappy.

President Carter so dominates the American political scene now that his margin over Ronald Reagan in a post-Iowa trial heat has risen to an overwhelming 65-31 percent.

And against George Bush, the GOP candidate who finished first in the recent Iowa caucuses, Carter leads by only a slightly lower 62-32 percent.

Heh.

Lightswitch on March 15, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Those who argue that the long slog of the Republican nomination race has hurt the chances to defeat Barack Obama will have new ammunition from Rasmussen’s poll of likely general-election voters in Florida.

That can mean a couple of things: That the voters are getting to know the candidates and don’t like them, which is better now rather than in October, while there’s still time to fix it.

Or that the voters are a bunch of idiots who have no attention spans.

YMMV.

kim roy on March 15, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Looks like we found a price in which America was for sale, as least as far as women are concerned.

$9 a month, and you too can have your own sugar daddy.

MNHawk on March 15, 2012 at 11:22 AM

HAHA, like the punchline to that old joke, “We’ve determined what you are, all we are doing now is haggling over the price.”

Jvette on March 15, 2012 at 1:35 PM

How is it possible for people to be this detached from a reality that is unfolding before their eyes?
I don’t understand how this is possible. Dennis Miller summed it up by stating that Obamas popularity is a result of the same reason that the Kardasians made $70,000,000 last year….everyone knows its crap, but they buy it anyway.

Mimzey on March 15, 2012 at 11:11 AM

This is what 40+ years of liberal indoctrination and sucking on the electronic teat has done to people – removed their ability to evaluate and critically reason.

Ask any of these people why they like Obama and most will give you LSM talking points (and this is why it’s so very important not to give the LSM free talking points) and blank looks. When you actually tell the facts, they look confused and uncomfortable, like it actually physically hurts to think. And it does for a lot of them.

This is why I cringe every time I see someone here trumpet that Obama will lose and there’s no way that any of the four remaining candidates can lose. It’s very much possible and we should get used to that idea and work extra hard to ensure it doesn’t happen.

kim roy on March 15, 2012 at 1:39 PM

You ridiculous Mittbots and your unhinged obsession with Newt and Santorum and this primary. It’s not the incredible “negativity’ in the race bringing GOP candidates numbers down–it’s an entire media establishment doing that to ensure an Obama second term. Why can’t you imbeciles get that? Your guy has been portrayed more out of touch my the media than he has by his conservative competitors–fact.

Romney’s made this far too easy with his easily-parodied, painful attempts to connect to people–the singing, the poetry reciting, the variety show he’s taken to the road to convince people he’s one of them. He doesn’t appear comfortable in his own skin on the stump, comfortable with his success, wealth, unique personality. He’s a candidate refusing to be himself and is being badly handled in southern/midwestern states.

Put the blame where it should go and stop your ludicrous and incessant hand-wringing over this primary process.

Your enemies are not Mitt’s opponents nor are they the Tea Party or Social Conservatives. Wake the fark up.

RepubChica on March 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Well said. He should be out there hammering Obama and his idiot decisions and saying what he’s going to do to fix it.

That’s it. He doesn’t have to like grits or sing or play the kazoo. Just appear decent and competent.

Why is this so difficult? It’s like he wants to lose.

kim roy on March 15, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Self-described white, “born-again,” or “evangelical” Christians represented more than three quarters of the GOP vote in Alabama and Mississippi, providing Santorum with his margins of victory, but that group amounts to only one-quarter of the overall national electorate.

Conservative Michael Medved, The Daily Beast [I'll provide no link, you can find it on your own]

mountainaires on March 15, 2012 at 11:45 AM

So. They make up 1/2 of the votes needed to win and you want to give them the finger? Pure genius.

besser tot als rot on March 15, 2012 at 2:11 PM

How come I live in Florida and don’t know any of these stupid likely voters?

americanmama on March 15, 2012 at 2:56 PM

“Uh Oh”

WTF Ed? Is the freaking election tomorrow?

I swear, this ‘STATE OF FEAR’ strategy is getting really old.

Stop propagandizing.

fossten on March 15, 2012 at 4:32 PM

I live in Central Florida and know he will not win here. The over/under on trips here is 15 between now and November though.

vicar7 on March 16, 2012 at 1:35 PM