Just a reminder: Romney won the delegate haul last night

posted at 1:55 pm on March 14, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The first hint that the night might not go Mitt Romney’s way was his decision not to have a “victory” party at all, which I first heard on the Hugh Hewitt show.  As I said at the time, that’s an odd decision, considering the free media coverage one gets from the inevitable candidate speech.  Perhaps that should have tipped us off that the early exit polls had missed the mark, and that the Romney campaign knew full well they would come in third in both Mississippi and Alabama.

However, despite the disappointing results in the two southern states, Romney ended up winning the night anyway — at least in delegates.  Aaron Blake counts up the haul, including the delegate allocations from Hawaii and American Samoa:

The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23.

But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin.

AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions.

So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)

According to the WaPo count after last night’s results, Romney leads in delegates over Santorum, 494-251, with Gingrich trailing badly at 131.  It doesn’t extend the delegate lead by much, but it kept either Gingrich or Santorum from catching up to Romney, too.

Rich Lowry questions the conventional wisdom from last night’s spot analysis that the night was especially bad for Romney even apart from the actual delegate haul:

There’s a lot of chatter about how the Romney campaign needs a shake up. But did anyone expect him to do any better than somewhere around 30 percent in Alabama and Mississippi? The states are chock-full of the kind of voters he just isn’t going to reach in these primaries, and the only way he was going to win was if he got lucky and the anti-Romney vote broke exactly the right way.  I’ve been underwhelmed by Romney victories and in this case, I’m underwhelmed by Romney defeats.

The chatter comes from two points.  First, polls had him doing better than he eventually did in both states, especially Mississippi, and that makes it look like Romney can’t close the deal with conservative-state voters.  Second, the expectation was that Santorum and Gingrich would have equal strength in these two states, which could have allowed Romney to take Mississippi. That didn’t happen, which means that Santorum has eclipsed Gingrich as the conservative alternative.  That’s not good news for Romney or Gingrich.

The night wasn’t all bad news for Romney, by any means, but it’s overstating the case to call last night a Romney victory.


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Good lord, ABRtards are whiny!

Gunlock Bill on March 14, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Things not looking good for Romney’s and his math going forward…

Remember what the Romney camp said, it would take an “act of God”…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Your analysis is extremely faulty. Not only are you overlooking April, where the calendar favors Romney, you are also not factoring in which states are winner-take-all and which states are proportional, which is where Romney stands to gain the most.

Looking at the remaining states that way, one can see the following:

358 delegates to be awarded on a winner-take-all basis in states where Romney is almost certain to win.
42 wta delegates in toss-up states.

294 delegates to be awarded proportionately in states that favor Romney.
203 delegates to be awarded proportionately in states that are toss-ups.
392 proportional delegates in states that favor Santorum.

In states (wta + proportional) that favor Romney he is almost certain to pick up 510 delegates at a minimum. That puts him at 1006, 138 away from the number he needs for nomination. Do you really think that Santorum can keep him from winning that many out of the remaining 703? That would require Santorum and/or Gingrich to pick up 82% of those delegates. And if Romney takes WI, they have to win 86%. Just to keep him from winning outright even without any super-delegates.

This is all based on RCP delegate counts by state, and I’m not running a paper tape to double-check the totals, but the number of delegates listed above (which I think is 1289) does cross check to the RCP total of remaining delegates (which I also think is 1289). Plus or minus a couple.

Also, regarding the aforementioned super-delegates (if that’s what we’re calling them now), they will probably swing behind Romney as soon as he gets close just to put him over the top. Not because of any great conspiracy, but because they will want to end the primary season as early as possible and get on with organizing for the general election.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:13 PM

There are a lot of RINOS who love Richard Dick Sweater vest . . . .DUMP HIM . . .he’s worthless!!!

Gunlock Bill on March 14, 2012 at 4:15 PM

There are no conservative voters in MS or AL; only faux-conservative state-worshippers.

cavalier973 on March 14, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Remember what the Romney camp said, it would take an “act of God”…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Referring to Richard Dick Sweatervest getting the GOP nomination, yes, I remember.

AND!!!

Richard Dick Sweatervest still hasn’t gotten the GOP nomination.

Gunlock Bill on March 14, 2012 at 4:19 PM

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:13 PM

although I am for Romney i think your definition of WTA is faulty.

So was the other guys.

I am not an expert on who wins CONGRESSIONAL DISTRCTS which are what most of the remaining primaries are. Gives me a headache.

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I see in the comments above several people discussing how Ron Paul might use his delegates if Romney does not win the nomination before the convention.

This post from FreeRepublic is the most interesting perspective I have seen on Ron Paul’s potential plans for his delegates.

What do you all think of this?

Have you seen evidence of this type of activity in the delegate selection by Ron Paul supporters in any other locations?

Ron Pauls Delegate Strategy May be WorkingNolan Chart ^ | Sunday, March 11, 2012 | Kenn Jacobine

Given his campaign’s strategy of focusing on caucuses and out hustling his rivals at local, county, and state conventions nationwide the main beneficiary of a brokered convention would be Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

In Iowa, Ron Paul supporters have become delegates for other candidates. Under party rules, if the convention is brokered at some point those delegates could be eligible to throw their support behind Dr. Paul.

In Georgia, Paul forces took over or as local GOP officials called it “hijacked” the DeKalb County delegate-selection convention in eastern metropolitan Atlanta. They also missed by a whisker doing the same thing in populous Cobb County.

And in Clark County, Nevada, home to Las Vegas, at the county GOP convention made up of over 2600 delegates, Paul supporters organized and triumphed by electing Paulites to all 14 seats on the ballot for county GOP executive committee board. These 14 new members of the board will make up two-thirds of the ruling body. Consequently, that county’s GOP platform now calls for holding elected officials to their oath to the Constitution, repeal of the 16th Amendment, and a full audit of the Federal Reserve.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2858619/posts

wren on March 14, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Rick Santorum is in Puerto Rico. Already met with Governor Fortuno and he has a full schedule, he’s gonna be all over the place. Too bad he’s leaving tomorrow-the rest of the pack will trickle in.

I am still wondering who the heck is Fred S. Karger.

He will meet with the House and Senate leadership, churches and community centers (?) imho he will visit their pediatric hospital, very important in San Juan.

He was asked about Governor Fortuno’s support for Romney, and he answered that all governors do the same thing. He worked with Gov. Fortuno when he was Commish-but his relationship with the island goes way, WAAAYYY back!

It’s gonna be fun reading about all this; my sis will rely some info but I dunno if there’s a way I could stream live TV to catch the 5 pm news. I want videos.

ProudPalinFan on March 14, 2012 at 4:25 PM

although I am for Romney i think your definition of WTA is faulty.

So was the other guys.

I am not an expert on who wins CONGRESSIONAL DISTRCTS which are what most of the remaining primaries are. Gives me a headache.

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I considered the point you are making when writing my post, and believe that the net result will be the same because Romney will win “states” like PR, MD, DE, and DC by large enough margins that he will carry all districts plus the at large delegates as well. If he loses a delegate or two along the way he would then make it up in WI, where Santorum is virtually certain to lose in the cities and suburbs even if he carries the rural areas. In CA, the other big state, again he might lose a district or two, but CA’s population is (1) not evangelical and (2) heavily urban and suburban, so the same calculus applies. Thus I think it kind of all washes out in the end. I just didn’t want to re-write War and Peace…although at this rate I may wind up doing it in installments…

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I believe the decision by Romney to NOT have a victory party was a smart one.

The more Santorum speaks, the less people like him. He’s like the Wizard of Oz behind a curtain. Nothing but words, platitudes, ethereal positions and magic.

But Santorum IS the real conservative. Whatever the heck that means.

As a matter of fact, when they ask people on exit polls who is the most conservative, they should also ask- why? I bet the responses would be pure comedy gold.

Marcus Traianus on March 14, 2012 at 4:29 PM

As we say here in the South, that Mutt just won’t hunt! The Foxetts are so far up the Mutt’s hind end they are sniffing Utah!

Give it a freakin rest. The south is not the center of the universe no matter how much you want it to be, I’m tired of this dumb superiority and conservative purity complex. Alot of us have a problem with our candidates having to pander to the ultra religious populists just to get elected. There’s lots of other conservatives in different states and they aren’t evil RINOs just because they ain’t good ole boys.

1984 in real life on March 14, 2012 at 4:30 PM

there are only 4 truly WTA states in the future

DC,Delaware,New Jersey,Utah.

gerry

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 4:31 PM

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Some of the WTA states give the entire delegation to the person who wins the most votes in the state (like Florida and Arizona did) and some split their delegations, give two or three delegates to each Congressional district and the rest are for the state at large and then it’s WTA in each CD for that district’s share and then another share of delegates that all go to whoever wins the state.

If memory serves the only places that give the whole slate to whoever wins the state are Utah, New Jersey, DC and Delaware. They have about 125 delegates between them and I think Mitt probably wins them all. The other “winner take all” places, most notably California, split their delegation between the state as a whole and the individual districts.

Mitt’s still going to win but it’s not that rosy for him.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 4:37 PM

although I am for Romney i think your definition of WTA is faulty.

So was the other guys.

I am not an expert on who wins CONGRESSIONAL DISTRCTS which are what most of the remaining primaries are. Gives me a headache.

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Hi Gerry thanks for pointing out the winner take all by congressional district, but my analysis is not faulty…

Each state in May is proprtional, I took that into account…

And as far as the winner take all in Wisconsin, I gave all the delegates to Romeny in Maryland, so that should cancel out the error of winner take all per district…

Also, in PA there is 72 delgates up for grabs in direct election, I think you could see a net 20-30 for Santorum there…

In response to the other states in April I think it will be close but Santorum should pick up a few delegates bewtenn now and the end of April…

Based on the 12 primary/caucuses between now and the end od April…

The states and my prediction of net delegates
MO +25 Sans
Puerto Rico-???
Illinois+12 Mitt
LA +10 Sans
WI +42 Sans
MD + 37 Mitt
DC + 19 Mitt
NY + 13 Mitt
PA + 27 Sans
CT + 6 Mitt
RI + 4 Mitt
DE + 19 Mitt

Looks like a dead heat until we get to May, which will go heavy to Santorum based on my previous post, I think Romney wins one contest in May and Sans gains anywhere from 125-200 delegates…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:39 PM

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Sorry – but YOUR analysis is faulty because you’re not taking into the account that there has been a game changing moment here – actually several over the last couple of months.

Romney winning ANYTHING is uncertain at this point.

HondaV65 on March 14, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Proving once a gain that Romney tops the others on his worst day and on their best.

MJBrutus on March 14, 2012 at 4:43 PM

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:39 PM

That’s pretty generous for santorum, he could lose WI and PA.

1984 in real life on March 14, 2012 at 4:46 PM

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:39 PM

I think you have me wrong. I don’t doubt that Mitt might not make 1144.

I also don’t doubt that Santorum or Gingrich won’t get close to 1144.

Santorum and Gingrich’s rationale is that Mitt can’t win a general election.

My rationale is that Rick and Newt can’t win a general election.

that’s my opinion. I think Romneys the best bet for the non-red states.

I will vote for any nominee.

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 4:48 PM

HondaV65 on March 14, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Santorum winning a bunch of states where the most important issue is “does the candidate share your religious views?” is not my idea of a game changer. Romney isn’t going to lose the northeast or Utah, or Cali.

1984 in real life on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Referring to Richard Dick Sweatervest getting the GOP nomination, yes, I remember.

AND!!!

Richard Dick Sweatervest still hasn’t gotten the GOP nomination.

Gunlock Bill on March 14, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Why is that you Mittbots can’t talk about his opponents without resorting to cutesy nicknames? This is becoming a pattern with “you people.” One of you even complained recently when someone called Romney “Willard.” Some of you sure do love your double standards.

JannyMae on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Puerto Rico has 3 super delegates plus 20 delegates. I dunno if it will be winner takes all, or if bc of the rule changes there’s gonna be a split. It’s a battleground; the fact that all candidates will fly and some will stay ’till Sunday is quite telling.

Santorum knows that Gov Fortuno, part of the GOP Establishment and a shrill for Romney is not gonna do him any favors. At least none of them will treat him like O.

I am waiting for polling data, and more information. FYI I was born and raised there, so I know how stuff goes. Because I am fully bilingual and have access to their media I can tell you guys more than what Ed can find on his own.

NOTE: I know it sounds stupid, childish and selfish but if Fortuno supports Romney, those that hate him the most will vote for another candidate (the “revenge” vote.)

ProudPalinFan on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

That’s pretty generous for santorum, he could lose WI and PA.

1984 in real life on March 14, 2012 at 4:46 PM

All the polls have Sans ahead of Mitt in both states…

And in the case of PA, Romney won’t even waste his time campaigning there…

Mitt is down anywhere from 14-18 points depending on what poll you look at…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Mitt’s still going to win but it’s not that rosy for him.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 4:37 PM

The winner-take-all states are: PR WI MD DC DE CA NJ UT. The distinction between by district and for the state as a whole is, in the aggregate, going to be a distinction without a difference in terms of my prediction of 358 delegates from those states. Romney is likely to win MD, DC, DE, NJ and UT outright. PR will depend on organization, where he has shown himself to be strong. That leaves WI and CA. If you look at the results from CA the last time around, McCain won 155 of the 170 delegates. If Romney does as well (and he’s likely to do better; Santorum is a stand-in for Huckabee, who won 11% of the vote and zero delegates), he is so close to winning all of the delegates that by district vs. by state won’t have much effect. And even if he loses a few, he’ll make them up in WI, still leaving him with 358 out of that group.

Plus, I was being very conservative at allocating only 50% of the delegates from proportional states that favor Romney to his count. The 152 out of 294 is likely to be higher than that, when you consider it includes states such as NY, CT, RI and NC.

Just to clarify: I’m not trying to spin for anyone. I’m just trying to net out the numbers, and what I’m saying is that although the individual category totals might shift a bit, in the end the bottom line number is likely to be correct.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I think you have me wrong. I don’t doubt that Mitt might not make 1144.

I also don’t doubt that Santorum or Gingrich won’t get close to 1144.

Santorum and Gingrich’s rationale is that Mitt can’t win a general election.

My rationale is that Rick and Newt can’t win a general election.

that’s my opinion. I think Romneys the best bet for the non-red states.

I will vote for any nominee.

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 4:48 PM

That’s fair analysis, I think the opposite is true though…

Mitt’s biggest issue is the economy, which could be off the table especially if unemployment is under 8% by the election, maybe not completely off the table but it makes it harder…

Another big issue 2nd or 3rd, imo, is Obamacare, that will be off the table bc of Romneycare…

The debt and gas prices, will be on the table…

Big government(freedom) will be kind off the table bc of perception of Romney…

I too will be voting for our nominee…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Sorry – but YOUR analysis is faulty because you’re not taking into the account that there has been a game changing moment here – actually several over the last couple of months.

Romney winning ANYTHING is uncertain at this point.

HondaV65 on March 14, 2012 at 4:42 PM

I disagree. There have been some ups and downs, but pretty much the game is the same as it has always been, except that the face of the “not Romney” has changed a couple of times. Anyway, I’ve laid out my reasoning and we’ll see who’s right in a month or so.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 5:00 PM

JannyMae on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

This is a joke, right?? Romney has been called more “cutesy” names than just Willard. I’m dying here..LOL

bluealice on March 14, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Another big issue 2nd or 3rd, imo, is Obamacare, that will be off the table bc of Romneycare…

I keep reading this and wonder.
Mitt says romneycare is ok if an individual state wants it.
Mitt says that the federal government should not mandate it.

all romney has to say is say if he will push for and sign repeal of Obamacare.

Obama can keep saying it’s the same as mass. and romney
will say states rights and let states decide.

over and over

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 5:06 PM

All the polls have Sans ahead of Mitt in both states…

And in the case of PA, Romney won’t even waste his time campaigning there…

Mitt is down anywhere from 14-18 points depending on what poll you look at…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 4:53 PM

You’re probably right. Other than maybe some time in the Philadelphia suburbs Mitt’s probably going to be camped out in New York running up to the primaries on the 24th.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 5:13 PM

The winner-take-all states are: PR WI MD DC DE CA NJ UT. The distinction between by district and for the state as a whole is, in the aggregate, going to be a distinction without a difference in terms of my prediction of 358 delegates from those states. Romney is likely to win MD, DC, DE, NJ and UT outright. PR will depend on organization, where he has shown himself to be strong. That leaves WI and CA. If you look at the results from CA the last time around, McCain won 155 of the 170 delegates. If Romney does as well (and he’s likely to do better; Santorum is a stand-in for Huckabee, who won 11% of the vote and zero delegates), he is so close to winning all of the delegates that by district vs. by state won’t have much effect. And even if he loses a few, he’ll make them up in WI, still leaving him with 358 out of that group.

Plus, I was being very conservative at allocating only 50% of the delegates from proportional states that favor Romney to his count. The 152 out of 294 is likely to be higher than that, when you consider it includes states such as NY, CT, RI and NC.

Just to clarify: I’m not trying to spin for anyone. I’m just trying to net out the numbers, and what I’m saying is that although the individual category totals might shift a bit, in the end the bottom line number is likely to be correct.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Lets go by each…

WISans +42 all the poll ahve him leading there…
MD +37 Mitt
Puerto Rico- ????
DC + 19 Mitt
DE +17 Mitt
NJ + 50 Mitt

California 155 delgates at stake, can go either way…

RCP Average
Mitt 34
Sans 25
Newt 15

And this is with Gingrich in the race…

Newt wil gone by June and this state will be huge…

I think the best way to look at is state by state, which I did and I can say that Sans will be closign the gap hard (especially after May) and might be ahead of Mitt by Memeorial Day…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Sorry – but YOUR analysis is faulty because you’re not taking into the account that there has been a game changing moment here – actually several over the last couple of months.

Romney winning ANYTHING is uncertain at this point.

HondaV65 on March 14, 2012 at 4:42 PM

The threshold for game changing moment must have gotten pretty low; if Romney growing his delegate lead despite two primaries being held in states that are unfriendly to him is a game changer then what would it be if there was ever a legitimate upset?

Romney being caught in bed with a live animal or a dead boy is a game changing moment. Romney losing Alabama isn’t.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 5:17 PM

I started and will cover PR’s primary. FYI

-The Palin Express

ProudPalinFan on March 14, 2012 at 5:17 PM

I keep reading this and wonder.
Mitt says romneycare is ok if an individual state wants it.
Mitt says that the federal government should not mandate it.

all romney has to say is say if he will push for and sign repeal of Obamacare.

Obama can keep saying it’s the same as mass. and romney
will say states rights and let states decide.

over and over

gerrym51 on March 14, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I was with Mitt on this states right issue until he did actually advocate for federal mandate…

He subsequently told people he did not, but you can look up his op ed in the Wash Post in 2009, it seems he was all for federal mandate then…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Puerto Rico is winner take all, and Romney will win it like the rest of the islands.

20 more delegates for Romney.

I only say that because Santorum has raised expectations that he has a chance there by visiting personally.

scotash on March 14, 2012 at 5:35 PM

California 155 delgates at stake, can go either way…

RCP Average
Mitt 34
Sans 25
Newt 15

And this is with Gingrich in the race…

Newt wil gone by June and this state will be huge…

I think the best way to look at is state by state, which I did and I can say that Sans will be closign the gap hard (especially after May) and might be ahead of Mitt by Memeorial Day…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Your CA data is out of date…you might want to check the most recent Rasmussen poll for CA (3/12). It shows Romney with a 20 point lead,and 5 points more than Santorum and Gingrich put together.

Plus, as has been noted elsewhere, WI is winner take all by congressional district, and Romney will out-perform Santorum in the suburbs, just as he did in Ohio, to capture a substantial percentage of the delegates, so your +42 number is not valid. Also, your polling data there is really, really old…taken at the height of the Santorum boomlet, so look for those numbers to have shifted as well.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Santorum winning a bunch of states where the most important issue is “does the candidate share your religious views?” is not my idea of a game changer. Romney isn’t going to lose the northeast or Utah, or Cali.

1984 in real life on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

The only problem with that line of argument is that Santorum is Catholic and the states who held their primaries last night are heavily evangelical. That really takes the “sharing their religious views” off the table. There is some overlap in moral views, but there are significant other differences.

The more credible explanation is that those states are more heavily conservative and the voters in those states don’t see Romney as conservative.

AZfederalist on March 14, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Your CA data is out of date…you might want to check the most recent Rasmussen poll for CA (3/12). It shows Romney with a 20 point lead,and 5 points more than Santorum and Gingrich put together.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Sorry, I am quoting myself to apologise and say that I misspoke. Your CA data is not really out of date…it’s just that the RCP average is not a valid measure, because it averages 3 ancient polls with ridiculously small sample sizes with one that is actually current and statistically valid.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Romney did win the night – exactly where it counts. Pretty soon we are going to have two choices: Romney or Obama. Start preparing yourselves.

sherry on March 14, 2012 at 2:10 PM

I view that as one choice.

8 weight on March 14, 2012 at 5:53 PM

The only problem with that line of argument is that Santorum is Catholic and the states who held their primaries last night are heavily evangelical. That really takes the “sharing their religious views” off the table. There is some overlap in moral views, but there are significant other differences.

The more credible explanation is that those states are more heavily conservative and the voters in those states don’t see Romney as conservative.

AZfederalist on March 14, 2012 at 5:45 PM

There’s probably some truth to both your arguments.

The polling data I remember seeing a couple months ago said only about half of Christians consider Mormons to be Christians. Not sure what the percentage is for people who consider Catholics to be Christians but I bet it’s a lot more than half. If people are looking for a candidate who shares their religious views, two of the three options are Cathloics and one isn’t a Christian then what is the bigger leap?

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Your CA data is out of date…you might want to check the most recent Rasmussen poll for CA (3/12). It shows Romney with a 20 point lead,and 5 points more than Santorum and Gingrich put together.

Plus, as has been noted elsewhere, WI is winner take all by congressional district, and Romney will out-perform Santorum in the suburbs, just as he did in Ohio, to capture a substantial percentage of the delegates, so your +42 number is not valid. Also, your polling data there is really, really old…taken at the height of the Santorum boomlet, so look for those numbers to have shifted as well.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 5:44 PM

I am just taking RCP average…

Plus Rassmussen was recently off by 11 points in Mississippi they had Romney winning by 8 and he lost by 3….

So I am just looking at the average, some of the polls are a little old in the average but the poll you cite was also before Santorum’s wins yesterday, so it all averages out…

We can do this delegate analysis all night long, but there is one caveat…

If one of the nominees happens to go on a roll and gains a lot of momementum, then all this delegate analyis can be turned upside down very quickly…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Romney’s current share of the delegates is actually 53.45% which last I checked was above 53% (495 out of 926). I mean if you’re going to do the math…

Zaggs on March 14, 2012 at 2:27 PM

By the numbers linked from Drudge, it’s:
Romney 498
Santorum 239
Gingrich 139
Paul 69
——————–
Total 945

Romney has 498 out 945, or 52.7% of the delegates earned to date by the four candidates.

ITguy on March 14, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Even though this is a Romney thread, Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. makes an exceptionally strong case for Newt with a headline that urges him to drop out in favor of Santorum. Odd indeed!

Take a look at how well Newt understands our foreign policy and the threats to our nation.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/293512/time-newt-step-aside-frank-j-gaffney-jr

onlineanalyst on March 14, 2012 at 6:10 PM

What the press needs to start asking is if Santorum is willing to take the nomination even if he comes in with less delegates and votes than Romney.

That’s really his rationale at this point in the game. “If I can get Romney less than a majority, I can possibly grab it in a jump ball, even if I have WAY less delegates and votes.”

Do conservatives understand how illegitimate it will look if the candidate that comes in with the most delegates and votes is somehow thrown off the ticket through some shady backroom deal? Is it really worth destroying the Republican party over Rick Santorum?

BradTank on March 14, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Okay one more thing that I overlooked…

Texas will become winner take all if Santorum goes over 50%…

Currently RCP has Romney+Paul at 38%…

If Newt drops out then Romney+Paul might got to 42-44…

Santorum would get all 155 delegates…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

What the press needs to start asking is if Santorum is willing to take the nomination even if he comes in with less delegates and votes than Romney.

That’s really his rationale at this point in the game. “If I can get Romney less than a majority, I can possibly grab it in a jump ball, even if I have WAY less delegates and votes.”

Do conservatives understand how illegitimate it will look if the candidate that comes in with the most delegates and votes is somehow thrown off the ticket through some shady backroom deal? Is it really worth destroying the Republican party over Rick Santorum?

BradTank on March 14, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Absolutely. If the one with the most delegates is not the nominee it will destroy the party. I don’t think Rick will do that in the end.

steel guy on March 14, 2012 at 6:35 PM

This is a serious question if anyoue has an answer.

Is Newt allowed to give his delegates to Santorum should he drop out? Are there rules forbidding him to do this? Are his delegates required to go to the candidate of his choice or are they free agents?

steel guy on March 14, 2012 at 6:46 PM

There are 2286 delegates. 940 have already been chosen of which Romney won the lion’s share–496. There are still 1346 delegates remaining. Of these, Mitt needs less than half. Since most of the states remaining are proportional, there’s little chance Romney won’t make the quota necessary to win the nomination. This is because Romney’s doing well even in the South and even when he comes in third. The only winner-take-all states coming up–NY, NJ, CT and Vt–are Romney-friendly. NY alone has 95 delegates. NJ has 50. In addition TX, PA and CA are huge states with plenty of proportional delegates destined for Romney. So there’s little chance he won’t be our nominee.

writeblock on March 14, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Romney isn’t going to lose the northeast or Utah, or Cali.

1984 in real life on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

He’ll win by a landslide in any state that starts with New and any state that borders an ocean. That’s enough right there to sink any chance for Santo or Newt.

The losers in this race have only one objective. To get to a brokered convention. It’s a stupid thing to even wish for and they’re not going to pull that off. A convention of back smoke filled room filled with The Establishment types would have no alternative but to go with the guy who won the popular vote by millions (and being The Establishment types they’ll want to anyway). Any other choice is to disenfranchise the entire nation over the entire 6 months of primaries. They value their scalps enough not to be that stupid.

If Newt gets out, it will help Mitt more than Santo and Newt knows it. Why will it help Mitt more? That sounds insane you say. The answer is pretty simple once you recognize their true objective. Even if 20% of Newt’s support goes to Mitt that helps increases the likelihood of him getting 1144. The additional delegates for Santo won’t help him because he has no road to gaining 1144. And that is why both Newt and Santo are going to play this suicidal game all the way until Mitt gets his delegates.

MJBrutus on March 14, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Okay one more thing that I overlooked…

Texas will become winner take all if Santorum goes over 50%…

Currently RCP has Romney+Paul at 38%…

If Newt drops out then Romney+Paul might got to 42-44…

Santorum would get all 155 delegates…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

As I recall there was some question about how Texas would award delegates. I remember reading they were trying to change their allocation system because they’ve been forced by the DOJ to push their primary back but it was too late to change the rules per the RNC so they were appealing or some other such thing. I honestly don’t know what the substance of that was or what the changes people were talking about were so if you know and could fill me in then I would appreciate it.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 7:38 PM

There are 2286 delegates. 940 have already been chosen of which Romney won the lion’s share–496. There are still 1346 delegates remaining. Of these, Mitt needs less than half. Since most of the states remaining are proportional, there’s little chance Romney won’t make the quota necessary to win the nomination. This is because Romney’s doing well even in the South and even when he comes in third. The only winner-take-all states coming up–NY, NJ, CT and Vt–are Romney-friendly. NY alone has 95 delegates. NJ has 50. In addition TX, PA and CA are huge states with plenty of proportional delegates destined for Romney. So there’s little chance he won’t be our nominee.

writeblock on March 14, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Per my response above, Texas was seeking a rule change due to their primary being pushed back so there’s a chance they may go straight WTA even if it’s only a plurality. Count delegates accordingly.

New York isn’t WTA unless the winner breaks 50%. The last poll I saw from there had Mitt leading but below 40%. I wouldn’t count all 95 delegates in his column quite yet.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 7:43 PM

The night wasn’t all bad news for Romney, by any means, but it’s overstating the case to call last night a Romney victory.

This is at least the second time that Romney has won more delegates and HA refuses to concede that it’s a victory. Delegates are what secures the nomination.

Last night was a victory for no one but Romney.

Dante on March 14, 2012 at 7:54 PM

New York isn’t WTA unless the winner breaks 50%. The last poll I saw from there had Mitt leading but below 40%. I wouldn’t count all 95 delegates in his column quite yet.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 7:43 PM

For what it’s worth, in my calculations I figured NY would give Romney 50% of its delegates (RCP lists it as proportional). But in reality, in states where he has gotten 37% of the vote he usually winds up with 65-70% of the delegates (New Hampshire and Ohio), so he should outperform my projection there. In fact, he should pick up approximately 40 delegates in my “proportional but leans Romney” category.

However, I’ve been running the numbers a bit more and still don’t see him going “over the top” without super-delegates until June 5.

Again, FWIW, YMMV.

HTL on March 14, 2012 at 8:04 PM

First, polls had him doing better than he eventually did in both states, especially Mississippi, and that makes it look like Romney can’t close the deal with conservative-state voters.

That argument would have some merit in a closed primary state. When you are polling Republicans before the primary and then have an open primary in which Democrats can vote, your polling numbers may be off because the people showing up at the polls may not be the people you are polling before the election. This is particularly true where Democratic agitation groups such as Democratic Underground have a “vote Santorum” operation going in order to get Santorum nominated rather than Romney.

They know that center Democrats can easily vote for Romney in the general election. It would be a lot more difficult for many of these people to vote for Santorum in the general election. They are scared to death of Romney running against Obama taking a lot of the “Reagan Democrats”. They would rather have someone much more polarizing to keep their voters on their side of the fence in the fall. Romney is potentially a huge threat to them. So they are sending people to the polls in open primary states to vote for Santorum.

So … the polling is off.

crosspatch on March 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

And to finish the thought … Alabama and Mississippi were both open primary states. Democrats could vote in the Republican primary.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States#States_with_an_open_presidential_primary

crosspatch on March 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Okay one more thing that I overlooked…

Texas will become winner take all if Santorum goes over 50%…

Currently RCP has Romney+Paul at 38%…

If Newt drops out then Romney+Paul might got to 42-44…

Santorum would get all 155 delegates…

MGardner on March 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Let’s hear it for nomination without representation! :P

There really oughta be a rule where states with over a certain number of delegates should be prohibited from going winner-take-all. That’s way too many opposition votes getting negated.

TMOverbeck on March 14, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Why is that you Mittbots can’t talk about his opponents without resorting to cutesy nicknames?

JannyMae on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 PM

You forgot your sarc /

profitsbeard on March 14, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Here is the memo as sent to reporters by Gingrich’s senior campaign adviser Randy Evans:

TO: Newt 2012 Campaign Staff

FROM: Randy Evans, Senior Adviser and Martin Baker, National Political Director

DATE: March 13, 2012

SUBJECT: An Historical Nomination Process Underway

Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that dominates the news media, Newt Gingrich is well positioned to win the GOP nomination and here’s why.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jamie-dupree-washington-insider/2012/03/13/gingrich-team-halftime/

Bullhead on March 14, 2012 at 9:16 PM

*yawn*

I think the election is over. At this point it’s a tossup between the white obama and the black obama, or the white romney or the black romney.

Take your pick, doesn’t matter. They’re the same person.

Wolfmoon on March 15, 2012 at 1:23 AM

It isn’t over; Santorum did what he had to do: win AL and MS and thereby deprive Romney of a Deep South win and marginalize Gingrich.

Unfortunately for him, there are two factors working against him. First, in order to overtake Romney or at least deprive him of getting close to an absolute majority (if Romney only needs a few uncommitted votes, he will surely get them), Santorum has to generate a wave of support. He’s way behind in delegates and Romney has the organization in many of the bigger states that Santorum lacks.

Secondly, as Santorum becomes even a seriously possible nominee, the portion of his support which is merely for “Not Romney” will have to reexamine their goals: are they willing to nominate Santorum to avoid Romney? That’s a big step from what amounted mainly to a protest vote.

Santorum’s lack of qualification is clear in his failure to qualify for his home state’s ballot, to submit delegate slates for all districts in Ohio and Illinois, and to submit proper signatures in several districts in Indiana and Illinois. This is the guy they think can straighten out the federal government? Get real.

Adjoran on March 15, 2012 at 3:46 AM

The results show that Mitt could have problems with more conservative areas of the Country come November. The non-state islands won’t be counted then. He will have to focus on the obamanation and not let himself — or his surrogates — to get caught up in the dem “look over there, something shiny” diversionary tactics….

Gohawgs on March 15, 2012 at 4:35 AM

Let’s get something straight. The ONLY reason RINO Romnay (aka Obama-Lite) has the delagates he has, is primarily due to Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name) LIED, and LIED, and LIED, and LIED some more ALL OVER Iowa and Florida about Gingrich, who at the time was kicken’ LIBERAL Willard’s butt. So RINO Romney resorted to LYING, LYING, LYING!?! (SEE “What Really Happened to the Gingrich Ethics Case? by Byron York, Townhall.com, 2/6/12) The republicRAT establishment is merely trying to replace the current Jackass LIAR-In-Chief with the (R) version. Conservatives should be real happy they’ve maintained the status quo.

Colatteral Damage on March 15, 2012 at 4:18 PM

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