Open thread: Alabama and Mississippi; NBC calls Alabama for Santorum; Fox News calls Mississippi for Santorum; Santorum video added

posted at 7:30 pm on March 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

The polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Am I right in thinking that after two months and 26 elections, these are the first primaries that are legit toss-ups between all three candidates? Until now, it’s always been Romney vs. either Santorum or Gingrich as the regionally designated Not Romney, but tonight either state could break for any of them. RCP has them separated by less than three points in Alabama and six points in Mississippi. And bear in mind, per Nate Silver, polls of the deep south have been less reliable in recent years than polls of other regions. Anything could happen here, including a pair of 32/31/30 splits. Excitement.

Jay Cost notes that Romney should have a better shot in Alabama because he does well with urban voters and there are more of them there than in Mississippi. Serious question, though. Is a sweep Mitt’s most desirable outcome tonight? He badly wants to win one of these states so that he can claim the approval of the GOP’s southern base, but if he takes them both, Gingrich will be devastated and might very well quit notwithstanding his tough talk this morning. Romney doesn’t want a two-man race with Santorum: If Team Sweater Vest starts beating him head to head, then Mitt could well end up in June with a plurality of delegates (thanks to proportional rules) but a badly weakened case for why he should be the nominee at a brokered convention. I’m thinking maybe his optimal scenario is to win one state and have Newt win the other. That’ll keep Gingrich in the game while still giving Romney bragging rights about a win in the deep south. By the same token, the Romney (and Gingrich) disaster scenario is Santorum winning both states. It would give RS a killer talking point about the base lining up behind him to be the RINO dragon-slayer, which might be the death blow for Newt.

Here’s the Google Elections page for all your result-following needs. Don’t get too caught up in delegate counts for these states, though — Hawaii and American Samoa are also voting today so the numbers will change as their results come in overnight. (Romney is favored.) Lots of updates coming, including exit polls as soon as they’re available. While we wait, a point to ponder: Are we sure that Gingrich dropping out would be a big problem for Mitt? His own team claims that it wouldn’t. Based on some of the poll data, they might be right.

Update: Preliminary exit poll results show a lots of evangelicals turning out in both states, which is no surprise and is good news for Santorum, needless to say. The proportion of those voters in Alabama and Mississippi are in line with the proportions in Tennessee and Oklahoma, both of which he won comfortably.

Update: Via BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski, a lesson from 2007 on … “ultimate conservatism.”

Update: As promised, the Alabama and Mississippi exit polls. Back in a few with highlights.

Update: An interesting gender split in Alabama: Newt narrowly won men while Santorum won women by eight points. (So much for the “women hate RS” meme.) And yet, based on the numbers, it looks like Newt is set to finish just a hair behind Romney in third place. Two other interesting data points. First, ideology:

That’s confirmation of the CW all the way. Santorum wins righties over Newt, the center-right splits three ways, and then Romney cleans up with moderates and liberals. Similarly:

Rarely have you seen three different candidates split this perennial question about qualities the electorate is looking for, but here you go. Again, perfect reflection of the CW. See why we’re in for a close race?

Misssissippi exit analysis coming up.

Update: Same odd story for Newt in Mississippi. He wins narrowly among men but may yet end up finishing a very close third because of Romney’s and Santorum’s relative strength with women. Here’s the data point of the night so far, though:

Fully 80 percent of the electorate is evangelical — and Romney somehow managed to fight Santorum to a draw among them. If he ends up winning the state, that’s the story. Another surprisingly strong Romney showing comes with voters without a college degree. That’s supposed to be Newt’s and Rick’s bread and butter, but no:

Romney also tied Santorum for the lead among voters who make less than $50,000 per year. As for qualities in a candidate, Mississippi looks a lot like Alabama:

And one more just for fun that someone flagged on Twitter:

Among voters who said Ron Paul’s positions are “about right,” the candidate of choice is … Mitt Romney?

Needless to say, Santorum can live with splitting these states with Romney. Job one is getting Gingrich out of the race ASAP. If Newt finishes third in both, we might very well see it. I wonder if we’ll see it tonight.

Update: David Freddoso has a copy of a memo sent out tonight by Team Newt vowing that they’ll soldier on, which sounds like they’re conceding the evening. Bachmann vowed to soldier on the night she finished last in Iowa too but was gone the next day. Stay tuned.

Update: It’s now 90 minutes after the polls closed and … 7.2 percent of Alabama precincts have reported. Santorum leads there and in Mississippi (where 24 percent have reported) as I write this.

Update: Romney told CNN earlier that Santorum is at “the desperate end of his campaign.” Right message, wrong target.

Update: At 9:53 ET, and with only 26 percent reporting, NBC finally calls Alabama for Santorum. And don’t look now, but with 78 percent reporting in Mississippi, Santorum is clinging to a 2,000-vote lead over Gingrich. Romney is another 2,000 votes back. Looks like the exits got it wrong there, likely vis-a-vis the evangelical numbers.

The worst-case scenario for Mitt tonight was a Santorum sweep. We’re on the verge of it.

Update: Aha. Philip Klein notes that CNN has now updated their exit poll numbers. (Unfortunately, the early data isn’t always final.) Remember how it was a big deal that Romney and Santorum were tied at 32 among evangelicals in Mississippi? Here’s how it looks now:

That’s why Rick is doing better than expected and Mitt’s doing worse.

Update: Mississippi’s not called yet but Team Santorum is already elbowing Newt:

Rick Santorum spokesperson Alice Stewart said she believes after Tuesday night it will be a “two-man race” between Santorum and Mitt Romney…

A “son of the South” like Gingrich, she said, “should be doing much better than this.”

“This is going to be, after tonight, this will be a two-man race,” Stewart said. “It’s going to be Rick and Mitt, and we’re going to clear the field and Rick’s got a good shot down the road.”

Update: Now 83 percent reporting in Mississippi and the numbers are holding — Santorum by 2,000 votes over Gingrich and Romney 5,000 votes behind. Jackson’s county, where Romney is piling up votes, is 89 percent in right now so there’s not much meat on the bone left there either for him.

Update: With 90 percent in now, Santorum’s lead has expanded to more than 3,000 votes. I’m reluctant to forecast a race even at this late hour after the last-minute Romney comeback in Ohio, but it looks like Team Sweater Vest is going to pull off the sweep. One last dramatic twist to this interminable primary.

Update: More than 96 percent in now as of 10:40 ET and Santorum’s lead is nearly 4,000 votes. He’s going to pull this off and Romney’s going to finish third in both states. What a deflating defeat for the presumptive nominee, especially after that early exit poll had him winning Mississippi. We should get the call soon.

Update: At 10:43 ET, there’s the call from Fox News. Santorum wins Mississippi and sweeps the southern primaries today. Wow.

Update: Matt Lewis says it’s time for Newt to take a hint:

While the idea Gingrich could or would win a brokered convention seems absurd, it is likely that continuing to accrue delegates would give him additional bargaining leverage going into the Republican convention in Tampa this summer.

But there are good reasons for Gingrich to reject that cynical strategy. First, if he truly believes Mitt Romney is a “Massachusetts moderate” masquerading as a conservative, then he owes it to Republican voters to give former Sen. Rick Santorum a clean shot at wresting the nomination from him. I’m pretty sure Santorum has earned it.

Second, staying in the race — merely in order to play a king maker or to curry favor at a later time — is hardly the most honorable or inspiring reason to remain in a race. Gingrich would be essentially asking donors to contribute money to a campaign he knows cannot win — and he would be asking voters to cast their votes for a candidate he knows can’t win.

Gingrich’s problem after tonight is that he might have lost the last shreds of his constituency, whether or not he’s inclined to quit. If you’re a Republican who’s dead set against nominating Romney, what’s the argument for sticking with Newt? Either you’re staying home because you can’t stand Santorum or else you’re gritting your teeth and pulling the lever for the Sweater Vest. There’s no compelling reason to go to the polls for Gingrich. He can’t win even in his own backyard.

Update: PPP: “Our NC GOP poll coming out tomorrow shows an 8 point shift toward Santorum if Newt was out. Nothing but a spoiler at this point.” If Newt wants revenge on Romney for spoiling his chances in Iowa and Florida, dropping out and endorsing Santorum is his best option.

Update: Gingrich is giving his concession speech now and vowing to go on but I don’t think it’s up to him. His voters need to decide their next move. If they break for Santorum and he starts beating Romney head to head — starting next Tuesday in Illinois — then he’s got a compelling narrative headed into the convention even if Mitt ends up winning a plurality of delegates. Namely, “the only reason Romney ended up with a delegate lead is because Newt and I split conservatives in the early primaries. Once Newt faded and it turned into a binary choice, I was the clear preference of the majority.” That is to say, if Santorum can put together a winning streak against Romney, he can point to tonight’s results as a de facto “reset” of the primary. Southern voters discarded Gingrich and adopted him and that propelled him to a series of wins. Forget the delegate count and focus on that strenuous “Not Romney” sentiment among Republican voters. That’s his argument. Romney needs a counter.

Update: Here’s Santorum’s speech, in which he marvels “we did it again.” Elsewhere, Nate Silver remembers that Gingrich’s own spokesman called Alabama and Mississippi must-wins for him just a few days ago.


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They change with the wind.

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Do it and don’t ask any questions, really. More for Bmore than JP.

Schadenfreude on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

You including Feb polls? Com’on man!

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:27 PM

I’m including all the polls at RCP. But fine, take out the Feb polls, he’s at best tied, at worst down by 5%. I don’t call that “doing well” as you stated.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I’m sure he’s shaking now, lol! But what if he’s right?

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Doesn’t matter, whoever calls a 33 to 31 race in the exit polls is a schill…

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:27 PM

How ya doing Mr Peterman?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I think everyone can agree that whatever happens, if Gingrich doesnt win or even come in second in either state, this is a horrific night for him.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

WTF is wrong with you people? You don’t have to be a liberal to realize that Santorum and Newt (and Ron) have no chance. Stop trying to brainwash everybody.

Rombot detected. Or maybe it’s just Dick Morris?

MechanicalBill on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

You call this looking good?

CBS News/NY Times 3/7 – 3/11 878 RV 47 44 Obama +3
ABC News/Wash Post 3/7 – 3/10 RV 47 49 Romney +2
IBD/CSM/TIPP 3/4 – 3/11 807 RV 46 41 Obama +5
Rasmussen Tracking 3/10 – 3/12 1500 LV 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 2/29 – 3/3 RV 50 44 Obama +6
Politico/GWU/Battleground 2/19 – 2/22 1000 LV 53 43 Obama +10
USA Today/Gallup 2/20 – 2/21 881 RV 47 47 Tie

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Considering we’re still in the primary season, yes.

Also, you’re being disingenuous. Before, you would cite to both Romney and Santorum vs. Obama, saying the electability argument for Romney no longer exists since Santorum performs just as well. Well (since you already cited the Romney vs. Obama polls)…
Santorum v. Obama

CBS News/NY Times 3/7 – 3/11 878 RV 48 44 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post3/7 – 3/10 RV 49 46 Obama +3
IBD/CSM/TIPP3/4 – 3/11 807 RV 47 38 Obama +9
Rasmussen Tracking3/10 – 3/12 1500 LV 47 42 Obama +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl2/29 – 3/3 RV 53 39 Obama +14
Politico/GWU/Battle/19 – 2/22 1000 LV 53 42 Obama +11
USA Today/Gallup2/20 – 2/21 881 RV 46 49 Santorum +3

There ya go.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Yes, I have a problem with using love for country as an obvious political prop with no other purpose than to fool ignoramuses into believing he;s something he isn’t.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:28 PM

You must really have had your heart set on relocating to Newty’s lunar colony, huh? Oh well…

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Are we allowed to talk about other stuff on an open thread?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Don’t know. But once Bluegill arrives, it won’t matter.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Those numbers are just CNN exits, you don’t know the totality of data hes looking at. Lets just see if hes right first.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

That’s right angryed, you’re the most conservative person out of all the HA commenters.

EVERYone is a liberal to you.

Quit worrying about bogeymen… There are no monsters under your bed, I think ;-)

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Wow, rather defensive aren’t we? I never claimed to be the most anything. Mittbots are liberals. That is a fact. Either that or you’re too stupid to realize your idol is a liberal. Which is it?

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Sounds like a degree obtained by an OWS’er. Are you occupying HotAir?

Lost in Jersey on March 13, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Neh. I’m the type of person who hollered “Occupy pepper spray, commies” at Occupy Pittsburgh.

thuja on March 13, 2012 at 8:32 PM

if Gingrich doesnt win or even come in second in either state, this is a horrific night for him.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

…right. If the results are terrible for Gingrich, he’ll have a horrific night. Lovely tautology you’ve constructed.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Wow, rather defensive aren’t we? I never claimed to be the most anything. Mittbots are liberals. That is a fact. Either that or you’re too stupid to realize your idol is a liberal. Which is it?

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

It is quite telling that Romney’s most ardent supporters are also the most anti-Palin people.. Jailbreak.. Bluegill etc.

melle1228 on March 13, 2012 at 8:33 PM

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:28 PM

You must really have had your heart set on relocating to Newty’s lunar colony, huh? Oh well…

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

How about you address the issue? Do you really believe Willard gives a damnt about the country? The guy would burn the flag and then take a shit on the ashes if he thought it would produce an extra vote. You cannot really be so easily duped.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:33 PM

ALABAMA
*********

Precincts Reporting: 2 Of 2136 0%

Winner Candidate Votes Vote %
(R) Rick Santorum 60 32%
(R) Mitt Romney 53 29%
(R) Newt Gingrich 48 26%
(R) Ron Paul 20 11%
(R) Uncommitted 2 1%
(R) Michele Bachmann 1 1%
============================================

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Yes, I was hoping to talk about the important social issue of homosexuality in medieval Japan.

thuja on March 13, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Christine O’Donnell thinks it’s icky.

Sandra Fluke thinks it should be revived and get federal funding.

Next topic.

predator on March 13, 2012 at 8:33 PM

It is expected and assumed that all who run for president love the country.

Also, all who love her, know how beautiful she already is, including the lakes and the trees.

God, some of you are dense. Love is blind. It’s kind of nice to still know.

Schadenfreude on March 13, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Face it dude, if Romney and Obama were switched tomorrow – switched every position, every thought, etc – you’d vote for Romney.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:29 PM

A ha! A tacit admission that there are really differences between the positions and thoughts of Romney and Obama! This is real progress.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Wow, rather defensive aren’t we? I never claimed to be the most anything. Mittbots are liberals. That is a fact. Either that or you’re too stupid to realize your idol is a liberal. Which is it?

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Not at all, but then anyone arguing with you would have to be defensive, what with all your offensive comments, personal attacks, and over the top hyperbole…

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 8:34 PM

How ya doing Mr Peterman?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Confused. And you?

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:35 PM

It is quite telling that Romney’s most ardent supporters are also the most anti-Palin people.. Jailbreak.. Bluegill etc.

melle1228 on March 13, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Yep. Not just anti-Palin, but anti-all things conservative. And yet with a straight face they also claim to be conservative and laughably claim Willard is too.

The fact Willard gets 35% of the vote just proves that there are a lot of very stupid, gullible people out there.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Are they Mittbots or Rombots? I’m using Romdar to detect them so I’d lean toward rombot. Or is it like Trekkies vs Trekkers?

MechanicalBill on March 13, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Townhall is showing 33 Rick, 29 Mitt, 26 Newt in Alabama but that’s only about 200 votes total. Nothing from Miss.

predator on March 13, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Face it dude, if Romney and Obama were switched tomorrow – switched every position, every thought, etc – you’d vote for Romney.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:29 PM

All hail angryed, HotAir’s true, conservative, psychic commenter.

HTL on March 13, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Confused. And you?

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I’m good, just a bit on the defensive after this morning. Took out some trash this morning from last night. It was a lot of work but well worth it. Did you get emailed?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Boy they’re slow counting votes down there (or thar)…

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

It looks like the angry one is doing his Tesla impersonation tonight. How precious.

MJBrutus on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Your not getting it. Ill try again. Romney has many favorable states after tonight left, Santorum has LA and PA. Newt, unlike the other two, cannot afford a bad night. If he loses both states hes done, period.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

A ha! A tacit admission that there are really differences between the positions and thoughts of Romney and Obama! This is real progress.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 8:34 PM

No there really isn’t. All that’s different is what Willard says. What he did as governor is exactly the same as what Obama has done as president. Both raised taxes. Both increased spending. Both appointed liberal judges. And of course, both nationalized health care.

In fact Obama is better than Romney on taxes. He wants to raise taxes on $250+. Romney wants to raise taxes on $200K+.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Are we allowed to talk about other stuff on an open thread?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

How about the QOTD? I have to make sure a blow up doll threesome on a anti-rush select comfort bed is still kosher to discuss. To be honest, I don’t vote till late Spring, so, just give us a candidate and let’s get this party started. I don’t care, but I have to be able to take a whack at Fluke and blow up dolls.

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Needless to say, Santorum can live with splitting these states with Romney. Job one is getting Gingrich out of the race ASAP. If Newt finishes third in both, we might very well see it. I wonder if we’ll see it tonight.

All eyes are on Sheldon Adelson for this one.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

It looks like the angry one is doing his Tesla impersonation tonight. How precious.

MJBrutus on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

LMAO! YOU are precious!

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

If he loses both states hes done, period.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Probably, yes.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

but I have to be able to take a whack at Fluke and blow up dolls.

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

There’s a difference?

predator on March 13, 2012 at 8:39 PM

No there really isn’t. All that’s different is what Willard says. What he did as governor is exactly the same as what Obama has done as president. Both raised taxes. Both increased spending. Both appointed liberal judges. And of course, both nationalized health care.

In fact Obama is better than Romney on taxes. He wants to raise taxes on $250+. Romney wants to raise taxes on $200K+.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

LOL!

You’re slipping. You’ve packed way more fail into way shorter posts than that before. Come on, step it up a little bit!

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Not sure if you intended this to be a rhetorical question or not but the answer is many of them have abandoned reason in favor of blind hatred.

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Blind hatred! Blind hatred! Blind hatred! LOL

besser tot als rot on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

The fact Willard gets 35% of the vote just proves that there are a lot of very stupid, gullible people out there.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:35 PM

So mitt bots are allowed to believe romney haters are stupid and gullible? Such as yourself?

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

but I have to be able to take a whack at Fluke and blow up dolls.

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Figuratively I hope. No one in their right mind would hit that

Lost in Jersey on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Intrade: Obama at 60%

Yep, Romney is sooooooooo going to beat him.

Are Rombots stupid, delusional, gullible or all 3?

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

It looks like the angry one is doing his Tesla impersonation tonight. How precious.

MJBrutus on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

whatever happened to the original specimen? The genuine Dr T that is?

jimver on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

It’s not so shocking that Romney is winning them since Santorum and Gingrich are splitting the conservative base.

sentinelrules on March 13, 2012 at 8:12

PM

Well consideering less than 3 weeks ago he was supposed to be a distant third I think it is. Rick and Newt needed both states more than Mittens did. Let’s face it, a win in either one for Mitt is shocking and makes it that much harder for Newt to stay in. It will also snowball on Santorum as money will dry up more and people back what they feel is the winning horse.

Minnfidel on March 13, 2012 at 8:41 PM

I’m good, just a bit on the defensive after this morning. Took out some trash this morning from last night. It was a lot of work but well worth it. Did you get emailed?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:37 PM

What happened this morning? I didn’t look.

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:41 PM

These are ridiculously low vote totals.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:42 PM

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

A gambling site that changes daily, with that kind of solid evidence I guess were doomed.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Blind hatred! Blind hatred! Blind hatred! LOL

besser tot als rot on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Finish your homework assignment on the judiciary yet?

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 8:42 PM

From Willard’s web site:

Eliminate taxes for taxpayers with AGI below $200,000 on interest, dividends, and capital gains

Romney thinks $201K is “rich”.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:43 PM

All eyes are on Sheldon Adelson for this one.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Adelson is pushing Gingrich’s buttons He has ordered Newt to go the distance and is funding it. Santorum’s head is going to explode if Newt stays in.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:43 PM

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on March 13, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Love that moniker, you know I’m not sure, if I read Allah’s comment correctly he wants us pretty much to stay on topic. alt asked him but he never responded before he shut down the thread. I’m probably gonna play it safe and stay on topic. At least until it becomes obvious that its okay not to.

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Intrade: Obama at 60%

Yep, Romney is sooooooooo going to beat him.

Are Rombots stupid, delusional, gullible or all 3?

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

LOL! We all know what YOU think… (hint – all 3)

Am I right? Am I right?
;-)

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Face it dude, if Romney and Obama were switched tomorrow – switched every position, every thought, etc – you’d vote for Romney.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:29 PM

This early and already we have to step over a racer’s slime trail? Great.

EddieC on March 13, 2012 at 8:43 PM

A gambling site that changes daily, with that kind of solid evidence I guess were doomed.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:42 PM

A gambling site that has a 95%+ accuracy in predicting elections. 98% so far for the GOP nomination.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I don’t think Newt gets out right away. Newt is Newt, he likes the microphone, the nice salary his campaign pays him and he will get to raise his speaking fees, probably write another book and will get a cozy little spot on FOX perhaps. I could be wrong but I just don’t see Newt dropping out for a while even if he doesn’t win tonight.

Minnfidel on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I believe Santorum is ultimately doing severe damage to Republican chances to oust Obama this fall. One can’t look at things from the perspective of the far conservative right because in a national election, that’s a pretty small portion of the electorate.

Republicans count for about 35% of the voters. Of those, less than half would be far right. So we’re looking at about 15% of the voters nationally. Santorum is to the right on social issues, but not so much on economic issues. Right now the crisis in this country is economic and Santorum is what I call a member of the religious left. He is with the Republicans on social issues but with the Democrats on economic issues judging from his voting record. I guess it just matters what people find more important, getting the country moving again, or having someone running (and probably losing) that reflects their social values.

Personally, I think the economy and foreign policy are our greatest challenges right now and I believe Romney is a better man in that context than Santorum is.

crosspatch on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Intrade: Obama at 60%

Yep, Romney is sooooooooo going to beat him.

Are Rombots stupid, delusional, gullible or all 3?

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Lol…Intrade had Newt winning both MS and AL just this morning and yet you’re going to bank on numbers from Intrade for an election that’s eight months away? I think that’s wishful thinking on your part more than actual logic.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

A gambling site that has a 95%+ accuracy in predicting elections. 98% so far for the GOP nomination.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Source that stat, please.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:45 PM

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Just a little house keeping. I’m not sure I can go any further in explaining. Did you get emailed?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:45 PM

A gambling site that has a 95%+ accuracy in predicting elections. 98% so far for the GOP nomination.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Was the 2% it was wrong when Romney dropped to 20% in Ohio halfway through the votes being counted?

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Good to hear Newt will stay in. Keep attacking Willard. Make him spend money. Bloody him up for Obama to land the final punch.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Republicans count for about 35% of the voters. Of those, less than half would be far right.

crosspatch on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Source that stat, please, and define “far right”.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Put the bigots, TruCons, and RDS’ers on suicide watch. Game ovah.

I’m actually pleasantly surprised at the amount of people finally coming to their senses. With Romney doing well in the South, what anti-Romney meme remains? He’s systematically refuted ALL of them — weak candidate, not a fighter, no broad appeal, South won’t go for him, etc.

It’s time to focus on beating Obama.

jjraines on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Mississippi primary results
***************************

With 1% reporting

Mitt Romney 17 votes
Rick Santorum 6
Newt Gingrich 3
Ron Paul 1

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Not this early.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Minnfidel on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Newt is gonna make an argument though for the VP slot. He’s basically killing Santorum by staying in. Newt is a wonderful attack dog, so he would be a good VP. So would christie.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

jjraines on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Not. Gonna. Happen. The GOP can nominate Romney if it likes, but I will never get behind him.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

I hope they start counting at a faster rate, lol.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Just a little house keeping. I’m not sure I can go any further in explaining. Did you get emailed?

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Of course you can explain it. Bmore, you ‘kill’ me. It’s still a free country.

Schadenfreude on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Figuratively I hope. No one in their right mind would hit that

Lost in Jersey on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

You haven’t met lorien?

katy the mean old lady on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

jimver on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Whatever you do, do NOT say that name 3 times :-)

MJBrutus on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Bachmann vowed to soldier on the night she finished last in Iowa too but was gone the next day. Stay tuned.

Except that Bachmann has more common sense than Newty. He’s in full stalker mode now, so he won’t drop out.

ROMNEY 2012!

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Newt is gonna make an argument though for the VP slot. He’s basically killing Santorum by staying in. Newt is a wonderful attack dog, so he would be a good VP. So would christie.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Newt has wayyy too much baggage. There’s no way either Romney or Santorum would pick him for VP.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:48 PM

AlexNBCNews tweeted:
********************

Only 35 people currently at Newt Gingrich’s primary party in Birmingham, AL

Submitted 13 mins ago from twitter.com/AlexNBCNews
http://www.breakingnews.com/
============================

http://instagr.am/p/IIf-PFTAlQ/

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:48 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

I hear it’s a four-way dead heat at this time in Hawaii. Can you verify? :D

predator on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

So he has that going for him as well :-0

MJBrutus on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Newt is gonna make an argument though for the VP slot. He’s basically killing Santorum by staying in. Newt is a wonderful attack dog, so he would be a good VP. So would christie.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

I’d agree that he’d be a good V.P. But with his baggage I doubt Mitt would pick him. Not saying I wouldn’t be happy if he did, but I think they would see too big of a risk. Joe Biden will be tough to replace………for gaffes and comedy.

Minnfidel on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Drudge did remove the Romney taking Miss. headline…

sandee on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Newt has wayyy too much baggage. There’s no way either Romney or Santorum would pick him for VP.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:48 PM

As VP? Plus all of Newt’s baggage has gone through it’s news cycle.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

For those of you who doubt the predictive value of intrade.

http://www.iansaxon.com/academic/IanSaxon_MScEconomics_Dissertation.pdf

Sorry Mittbots, your boy’s gonna lose and lose big.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Drudge did remove the Romney taking Miss. headline…

sandee on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

LOL

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:51 PM

whatever happened to the original specimen? The genuine Dr T that is?

jimver on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Quiet!!! Or we’ll spend the thread time scrolling past the spam.

katy the mean old lady on March 13, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Schadenfreude on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

I don’t know ole Allah didn’t sound too happy with a couple of us. Ed either. Lets just say it was a productive morning from my point of view. You were there when it started last evening. It spilled over into the morning up to about lunch. 3 or 4 threads. But primarily QOTD and lib intolerence.

Bmore on March 13, 2012 at 8:51 PM

jimacostacnn tweeted:
**********************

ICYMI: Santorum spokesman @alicetweet told me on CNN the fmr PA senator is now calling for Gingrich to get out of the race

Submitted 15 mins ago from twitter.com/jimacostacnn
http://www.breakingnews.com/
===========================

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Go Newt, one vote from the lead in Miss.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Not. Gonna. Happen. The GOP can nominate Romney if it likes, but I will never get behind him.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Ah, the whole ‘take your ball and go home’ routine. Even though I don’t care for Newt, I’d still vote for him over Obama. Beating him is supposed to be the goal.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 8:52 PM

whatever happened to the original specimen? The genuine Dr T that is?

jimver on March 13, 2012 at 8:40 PM

The good “DR. Telsa” usually only posts on the weekend, Thankfully!!

Barred on March 13, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Good to hear Newt will stay in. Keep attacking Willard. Make him spend money. Bloody him up for Obama to land the final punch.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Seriously, did Romney bugger your pet goat?

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Quiet!!! Or we’ll spend the thread time scrolling past the spam.

katy the mean old lady on March 13, 2012 at 8:51 PM

What are we scrolling past now?

MJBrutus on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/08/business/economic-view-polls-say-kerry-futures-say-bush.html

Intrade predicted 2004 almost perfectly.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

joejohnscnn tweeted:
********************

Gingrich isn’t getting out of the race even if he doesn’t win tonight. His Chief of Staff Patrick Millsaps told me live on CNN

Submitted 7 mins ago from twitter.com/joejohnscnn
http://www.breakingnews.com/
============================

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I hear it’s a four-way dead heat at this time in Hawaii. Can you verify? :D

predator on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Are the polls even closed in Hawaii yet? It’s 2:53 pm there right now.

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:51 PM

hypocrite. He threw a hissy fit when Gingrich suggested he get out of the race.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

A gambling site that has a 95%+ accuracy in predicting elections. 98% so far for the GOP nomination.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:44 PM
Source that stat, please.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:45 PM

It’s pretty accurate that 90% of all stats are made up on the spot.

And….

“The greatest thing about Facebook is that you can quote something and totally make up the source”

-George Washington

hot-heir on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

bbbb, bbbb, bbbb, but this can’t be DRUDGE crowned Mitt the winner of the entire universe earlier this afternoon.

Carter had a 34 point lead in a late January 1980 poll.

Santorum 2012 !!!

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-CARTER-NOW-FAR-AHEAD-OF-BOTH-REAGAN-AND-BUSH-1980-01.pdf

PappyD61 on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

As VP? Plus all of Newt’s baggage has gone through it’s news cycle.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:49 PM

That’s true, but one can argue that the baggage is exactly why he’s been struggling. Newt is a bit of a loose cannon as well. The nominee is going to have to pick a VP that can stay on message. And you don’t think the media will loop the “Kenyan anti-colonial worldview” quote of his? He’s just too risky. You can pick someone else who’s even more conservative and has less baggage.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

START COUNTING THE VOTES DAMMIT!

How is it that we’re still under 1% of the vote counted with the polls closed for an hour?

Esoteric on March 13, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Alabama
*********

Precincts Reporting: 2 Of 2136 0%

Winner Candidate Votes Vote %
(R) Rick Santorum 122 33%
(R) Mitt Romney 100 28%
(R) Newt Gingrich 94 26%
(R) Ron Paul 30 8%
(R) Uncommitted 7 2%
(R) Michele Bachmann 4 1%
(R) Jon Huntsman 1 1%
(R) Rick Perry 1 1%
=================================================

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Even though I don’t care for Newt, I’d still vote for him over Obama. Beating him is supposed to be the goal.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 8:52 PM

I’m not voting for Romney. I will vote third party if I have to.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Confused. And you?

JPeterman on March 13, 2012 at 8:35 PM

With apologies, because this was not addressed to me..however, out of friendship on the net and lots of goodwill…I hope the “confusion” is not due to this place.

First, it is a great site, and it is richer due to you, Bmore, Flora Duh, Resist We Much, and a few other really great commenters.

Unfortunately a lot of malicious chaf made it in too. They are only here to make the house stinky, in pursuit of re-election a thug.

Don’t take last night, or this morning, which was a continuation of last night, any more seriously than it deserves, meaning it’s over. Now, forget about it and just be your great self.

It all had nothing much to do with you or Lance. It had all to do with those who wish the house ill.

Onward, and only the best.

Schadenfreude on March 13, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Except that Bachmann has more common sense than Newty. He’s in full stalker mode now, so he won’t drop out.

ROMNEY 2012!

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Good for him. Every $1 Willard has to spend against him is $1 he won’t spend against Obama. Newt has no chance of winning but he can weaken Romney. And it’s delicious to watch the Rombots whine about it.

angryed on March 13, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Romney is up in bama…but only 2 precincts reporting.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:55 PM

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