Open thread: Alabama and Mississippi; NBC calls Alabama for Santorum; Fox News calls Mississippi for Santorum; Santorum video added

posted at 7:30 pm on March 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

The polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Am I right in thinking that after two months and 26 elections, these are the first primaries that are legit toss-ups between all three candidates? Until now, it’s always been Romney vs. either Santorum or Gingrich as the regionally designated Not Romney, but tonight either state could break for any of them. RCP has them separated by less than three points in Alabama and six points in Mississippi. And bear in mind, per Nate Silver, polls of the deep south have been less reliable in recent years than polls of other regions. Anything could happen here, including a pair of 32/31/30 splits. Excitement.

Jay Cost notes that Romney should have a better shot in Alabama because he does well with urban voters and there are more of them there than in Mississippi. Serious question, though. Is a sweep Mitt’s most desirable outcome tonight? He badly wants to win one of these states so that he can claim the approval of the GOP’s southern base, but if he takes them both, Gingrich will be devastated and might very well quit notwithstanding his tough talk this morning. Romney doesn’t want a two-man race with Santorum: If Team Sweater Vest starts beating him head to head, then Mitt could well end up in June with a plurality of delegates (thanks to proportional rules) but a badly weakened case for why he should be the nominee at a brokered convention. I’m thinking maybe his optimal scenario is to win one state and have Newt win the other. That’ll keep Gingrich in the game while still giving Romney bragging rights about a win in the deep south. By the same token, the Romney (and Gingrich) disaster scenario is Santorum winning both states. It would give RS a killer talking point about the base lining up behind him to be the RINO dragon-slayer, which might be the death blow for Newt.

Here’s the Google Elections page for all your result-following needs. Don’t get too caught up in delegate counts for these states, though — Hawaii and American Samoa are also voting today so the numbers will change as their results come in overnight. (Romney is favored.) Lots of updates coming, including exit polls as soon as they’re available. While we wait, a point to ponder: Are we sure that Gingrich dropping out would be a big problem for Mitt? His own team claims that it wouldn’t. Based on some of the poll data, they might be right.

Update: Preliminary exit poll results show a lots of evangelicals turning out in both states, which is no surprise and is good news for Santorum, needless to say. The proportion of those voters in Alabama and Mississippi are in line with the proportions in Tennessee and Oklahoma, both of which he won comfortably.

Update: Via BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski, a lesson from 2007 on … “ultimate conservatism.”

Update: As promised, the Alabama and Mississippi exit polls. Back in a few with highlights.

Update: An interesting gender split in Alabama: Newt narrowly won men while Santorum won women by eight points. (So much for the “women hate RS” meme.) And yet, based on the numbers, it looks like Newt is set to finish just a hair behind Romney in third place. Two other interesting data points. First, ideology:

That’s confirmation of the CW all the way. Santorum wins righties over Newt, the center-right splits three ways, and then Romney cleans up with moderates and liberals. Similarly:

Rarely have you seen three different candidates split this perennial question about qualities the electorate is looking for, but here you go. Again, perfect reflection of the CW. See why we’re in for a close race?

Misssissippi exit analysis coming up.

Update: Same odd story for Newt in Mississippi. He wins narrowly among men but may yet end up finishing a very close third because of Romney’s and Santorum’s relative strength with women. Here’s the data point of the night so far, though:

Fully 80 percent of the electorate is evangelical — and Romney somehow managed to fight Santorum to a draw among them. If he ends up winning the state, that’s the story. Another surprisingly strong Romney showing comes with voters without a college degree. That’s supposed to be Newt’s and Rick’s bread and butter, but no:

Romney also tied Santorum for the lead among voters who make less than $50,000 per year. As for qualities in a candidate, Mississippi looks a lot like Alabama:

And one more just for fun that someone flagged on Twitter:

Among voters who said Ron Paul’s positions are “about right,” the candidate of choice is … Mitt Romney?

Needless to say, Santorum can live with splitting these states with Romney. Job one is getting Gingrich out of the race ASAP. If Newt finishes third in both, we might very well see it. I wonder if we’ll see it tonight.

Update: David Freddoso has a copy of a memo sent out tonight by Team Newt vowing that they’ll soldier on, which sounds like they’re conceding the evening. Bachmann vowed to soldier on the night she finished last in Iowa too but was gone the next day. Stay tuned.

Update: It’s now 90 minutes after the polls closed and … 7.2 percent of Alabama precincts have reported. Santorum leads there and in Mississippi (where 24 percent have reported) as I write this.

Update: Romney told CNN earlier that Santorum is at “the desperate end of his campaign.” Right message, wrong target.

Update: At 9:53 ET, and with only 26 percent reporting, NBC finally calls Alabama for Santorum. And don’t look now, but with 78 percent reporting in Mississippi, Santorum is clinging to a 2,000-vote lead over Gingrich. Romney is another 2,000 votes back. Looks like the exits got it wrong there, likely vis-a-vis the evangelical numbers.

The worst-case scenario for Mitt tonight was a Santorum sweep. We’re on the verge of it.

Update: Aha. Philip Klein notes that CNN has now updated their exit poll numbers. (Unfortunately, the early data isn’t always final.) Remember how it was a big deal that Romney and Santorum were tied at 32 among evangelicals in Mississippi? Here’s how it looks now:

That’s why Rick is doing better than expected and Mitt’s doing worse.

Update: Mississippi’s not called yet but Team Santorum is already elbowing Newt:

Rick Santorum spokesperson Alice Stewart said she believes after Tuesday night it will be a “two-man race” between Santorum and Mitt Romney…

A “son of the South” like Gingrich, she said, “should be doing much better than this.”

“This is going to be, after tonight, this will be a two-man race,” Stewart said. “It’s going to be Rick and Mitt, and we’re going to clear the field and Rick’s got a good shot down the road.”

Update: Now 83 percent reporting in Mississippi and the numbers are holding — Santorum by 2,000 votes over Gingrich and Romney 5,000 votes behind. Jackson’s county, where Romney is piling up votes, is 89 percent in right now so there’s not much meat on the bone left there either for him.

Update: With 90 percent in now, Santorum’s lead has expanded to more than 3,000 votes. I’m reluctant to forecast a race even at this late hour after the last-minute Romney comeback in Ohio, but it looks like Team Sweater Vest is going to pull off the sweep. One last dramatic twist to this interminable primary.

Update: More than 96 percent in now as of 10:40 ET and Santorum’s lead is nearly 4,000 votes. He’s going to pull this off and Romney’s going to finish third in both states. What a deflating defeat for the presumptive nominee, especially after that early exit poll had him winning Mississippi. We should get the call soon.

Update: At 10:43 ET, there’s the call from Fox News. Santorum wins Mississippi and sweeps the southern primaries today. Wow.

Update: Matt Lewis says it’s time for Newt to take a hint:

While the idea Gingrich could or would win a brokered convention seems absurd, it is likely that continuing to accrue delegates would give him additional bargaining leverage going into the Republican convention in Tampa this summer.

But there are good reasons for Gingrich to reject that cynical strategy. First, if he truly believes Mitt Romney is a “Massachusetts moderate” masquerading as a conservative, then he owes it to Republican voters to give former Sen. Rick Santorum a clean shot at wresting the nomination from him. I’m pretty sure Santorum has earned it.

Second, staying in the race — merely in order to play a king maker or to curry favor at a later time — is hardly the most honorable or inspiring reason to remain in a race. Gingrich would be essentially asking donors to contribute money to a campaign he knows cannot win — and he would be asking voters to cast their votes for a candidate he knows can’t win.

Gingrich’s problem after tonight is that he might have lost the last shreds of his constituency, whether or not he’s inclined to quit. If you’re a Republican who’s dead set against nominating Romney, what’s the argument for sticking with Newt? Either you’re staying home because you can’t stand Santorum or else you’re gritting your teeth and pulling the lever for the Sweater Vest. There’s no compelling reason to go to the polls for Gingrich. He can’t win even in his own backyard.

Update: PPP: “Our NC GOP poll coming out tomorrow shows an 8 point shift toward Santorum if Newt was out. Nothing but a spoiler at this point.” If Newt wants revenge on Romney for spoiling his chances in Iowa and Florida, dropping out and endorsing Santorum is his best option.

Update: Gingrich is giving his concession speech now and vowing to go on but I don’t think it’s up to him. His voters need to decide their next move. If they break for Santorum and he starts beating Romney head to head — starting next Tuesday in Illinois — then he’s got a compelling narrative headed into the convention even if Mitt ends up winning a plurality of delegates. Namely, “the only reason Romney ended up with a delegate lead is because Newt and I split conservatives in the early primaries. Once Newt faded and it turned into a binary choice, I was the clear preference of the majority.” That is to say, if Santorum can put together a winning streak against Romney, he can point to tonight’s results as a de facto “reset” of the primary. Southern voters discarded Gingrich and adopted him and that propelled him to a series of wins. Forget the delegate count and focus on that strenuous “Not Romney” sentiment among Republican voters. That’s his argument. Romney needs a counter.

Update: Here’s Santorum’s speech, in which he marvels “we did it again.” Elsewhere, Nate Silver remembers that Gingrich’s own spokesman called Alabama and Mississippi must-wins for him just a few days ago.


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Hawaii, 12% in, Mitt 32% Rick 29% Crazy Uncle 22%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:16 AM

I am really surprised Santorum is doing that well in Hawaii.

sharrukin on March 14, 2012 at 3:19 AM

Hawaii 13% in, Mitt 33% Rick 28% Crazy Uncle 23%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:19 AM

Hawaii, 12% in, Mitt 32% Rick 29% Crazy Uncle 22%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:16 AM

Romney spin is going to be so fun to watch tomorrow.

So interested to see how they spin Mitts Spokesman/son Matt saying “Obama is doing a great job”.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:20 AM

poor crazy Ron Paul :(

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:20 AM

Wow, I think we glitched up the matrix on this thread.

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:23 AM

Obama is doing a great job! His propaganda is second only to Kim Jong Il (devil rest his soul)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:23 AM

Obama is doing a great job! His propaganda is second only to Kim Jong Il (devil rest his soul)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:23 AM

I think the Devil is making meatballs out of Kim’s soul…

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:24 AM

poor crazy Ron Paul :(

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:20 AM

At least he is honest. I feel bad for him in a way. He has seen this country almost completely destroyed in his lifetime in all the ways that matter most to him. I admire greatly that he sticks to his principals even though I disagree with most of what he says. Debate is good.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:25 AM

Hawaii, 17% in, Mitt 32% Rick 28% Crazy Uncle 26%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

Romney spin is going to be so fun to watch tomorrow.

So interested to see how they spin Mitts Spokesman/son Matt saying “Obama is doing a great job”.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:20 AM

Well we all know what the spin from Rombots will be. Those poor, dumb, southerns were just mean ole bigots against Romney and his Mormon religion.

Yet known of them can explain why if everyone is so bigoted, how exactly Romney is going soo electable.. If someone is a bigot, odds are they will stay home rather than vote for Romney or Obama.

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

I admire greatly that he sticks to his principals even though I disagree with most of what he says. Debate is good.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:25 AM

If Ron Paul could somehow be restricted to dealing with the domestic financial problem only, then he would and should win in a heartbeat.

sharrukin on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

At least he is honest. I feel bad for him in a way. He has seen this country almost completely destroyed in his lifetime in all the ways that matter most to him. I admire greatly that he sticks to his principals even though I disagree with most of what he says. Debate is good.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:25 AM

I agree with everything the dude says…except for the racist stuff. Sure, it was twenty years ago, but antisemitism doesn’t just go away.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

Mitt back down to 31%. This will be devastating if it sticks. Especially if Santorum stays within 3% as he has been. Paul will be happy with his 26%.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:28 AM

I can’t believe Crazy Uncle is doing as well in Hawaii as he is. Must be a lot of crazy folks living in Hawaii.

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:29 AM

Well we all know what the spin from Rombots will be. Those poor, dumb, southerns were just mean ole bigots against Romney and his Mormon religion.

Yet known of them can explain why if everyone is so bigoted, how exactly Romney is going soo electable.. If someone is a bigot, odds are they will stay home rather than vote for Romney or Obama.

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

I’m gonna have to go thread police here! Stop saying Rombots – it’s outlived its usefulness. Mittiots, Mittler Youth, fingerless glove fans…these are all acceptable substitutes.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:30 AM

I think the Devil is making meatballs out of Kim’s soul…

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:24 AM

I hope so…meatballs are great! Political prisons are not :(

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:31 AM

I agree with everything the dude says…except for the racist stuff. Sure, it was twenty years ago, but antisemitism doesn’t just go away.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

Part of that is overblown but hardly all of it. Those that know him say he is not at all racist or antisemitic.

I do agree with Obama on one thing this country still has a ways to go on racism. We have not fulfilled MLK’s dream. But at this point mostly because of people like Obama that are racist against whites. They did not like why do they think we will put up with it? Well they don’t they see racism as a means to achieve political goals. So sad to see them destroy society in their pursuit of a goal only Satan could love.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:36 AM

I’m gonna have to go thread police here! Stop saying Rombots – it’s outlived its usefulness. Mittiots, Mittler Youth, fingerless glove fans…these are all acceptable substitutes.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:30 AM

Well we all know what the spin from Rombots Mittiots, Mittler Youth et. al. will be. Those poor, dumb, southerns were just mean ole bigots against Romney and his Mormon religion.

Yet known of them can explain why if everyone is so bigoted, how exactly Romney is going soo electable.. If someone is a bigot, odds are they will stay home rather than vote for Romney or Obama.

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

There FI…

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:37 AM

I’m gonna have to go thread police here! Stop saying Rombots – it’s outlived its usefulness. Mittiots, Mittler Youth, fingerless glove fans…these are all acceptable substitutes.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:30 AM

Thank you for some sarcasm. Great post.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:38 AM

The operative word over on Townhall.com is “Mittwits”

cavalier973 on March 14, 2012 at 3:39 AM

Romney appeared to maintain his delegate lead and may add to it after more moderate Hawaii and American Samoa are counted. A CNN delegate estimate late Tuesday night showed Romney with a 480-234 lead over Santorum, giving him the same 246-delegate margin that CNN estimated he had before Tuesday’s results.

So, nothing gained.

Santo and Newt got a few more votes than Romney in very religious regions. No big deal really.

The only real surprise is that Romney shouldn’t have gotten many votes at all there, but he did. A moderate guy from the Northeast. Even many Bible Belt folks are sick of this primary being needlessly drug out for a few socon egos.

Moesart on March 14, 2012 at 3:42 AM

I do agree with Obama on one thing this country still has a ways to go on racism. We have not fulfilled MLK’s dream. But at this point mostly because of people like Obama that are racist against whites. They did not like why do they think we will put up with it? Well they don’t they see racism as a means to achieve political goals. So sad to see them destroy society in their pursuit of a goal only Satan could love.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:36 AM

totally agree! evidence: Touré, Charles M. Blow, and Obama’s favorite – Derrick Bell.

Thank you for some sarcasm. Great post.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:38 AM

thanks! I love myself too :)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:44 AM

Even many Bible Belt folks are sick of this primary being needlessly drug out for a few socon egos.

Moesart on March 14, 2012 at 3:42 AM

I hate SoCon egos…and I’m a Southern Baptist! Explain that – I sure can’t.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:47 AM

Romney appeared to maintain his delegate lead and may add to it after more moderate Hawaii

The only real surprise is that Romney shouldn’t have gotten many votes at all there, but he did. A moderate guy from the Northeast. Even many Bible Belt folks are sick of this primary being needlessly drug out for a few socon egos.

Moesart on March 14, 2012 at 3:42 AM

Mitt assured us today he would win Mississippi. He lost big time. So very funny very wrong spin.

But Hawaii he will lose more delegates he needs more than 31% to get close to the number of delegates he needs and he basically loses moderate Hawaii.

Spin that one. You did not try. You can not.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:48 AM

The operative word over on Townhall.com is “Mittwits”

cavalier973 on March 14, 2012 at 3:39 AM

that’s a good one – why didn’t I think of it? Stupid DHChron!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:49 AM

I just thought of some Romney spin! mittens blows!

wait…that’s what I said last time – give me a minute, I’ll think of something

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:51 AM

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:44 AM

Rules for Radicals (Obama’s favorite book and Mitts?)

Actually is dedicated to Satan. That is not a joke. It really is.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

Even many Bible Belt folks are sick of this primary being needlessly drug out for a few socon egos.

Moesart on March 14, 2012 at 3:42 AM

Yeah. Because as we all know, social liberalism is free. Dumbass.

Lanceman on March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

Rules for Radicals (Obama’s favorite book and Mitts?)

Actually is dedicated to Satan. That is not a joke. It really is.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

Now that he is dead, I wonder if Saul Alinski still thinks Satan is so damned cool???

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:53 AM

And as you look at the upcoming contests on the calendar, there are no opportunities for them to have significant wins that allow them to accumulate large numbers of delegates so that they can close that gap with Mitt Romney.

Romney would have to quit this race now for Santorum to have a chance in the delegate race. Romney is wrapping things up. Slowly.

Many of Newt’s votes will not just automatically go to Santorum either if Newt bails out.

Keep letting the media lead you around by the nose by actually believing Santorum has a shot at this.

Moesart on March 14, 2012 at 3:53 AM

Hawaii 36% in, Mitt 35% Rick 30% Crazy Uncle 21%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:55 AM

Rules for Radicals (Obama’s favorite book and Mitts?)

Actually is dedicated to Satan. That is not a joke. It really is.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

seriously? I’m googling that right now.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:56 AM

It wasn’t Satan! It was Lucifer!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:57 AM

Rules for Radicals (Obama’s favorite book and Mitts?)

Actually is dedicated to Satan. That is not a joke. It really is.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

seriously? I’m googling that right now.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:56 AM

You can google it, but Steve is correct. :)

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:58 AM

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 3:53 AM

Well he sure was wrong about just dying. Doubt he is enjoying his time where he is.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 3:59 AM

Yeah. Because as we all know, social liberalism is free. Dumbass.

Lanceman on March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

So was Romneycare don’t ya know //

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:59 AM

It wasn’t Satan! It was Lucifer!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:57 AM

Satan and Lucifer are the same person

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 4:00 AM

Satan and Lucifer are the same person

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 4:00 AM

I know SWalker…it was a joke – possibly a bad joke, but that’s my thang.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:02 AM

It wasn’t Satan! It was Lucifer!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 3:57 AM

Satan, Lucifer, Obama -same same :)

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 4:02 AM

Lest we forget at least an over-the-shoulder acknowledgment to the very first radical: from all our legends, mythology, and history (and who is to know where mythology leaves off and history begins — or which is which), the first radical known to man who rebelled against the establishment and did it so effectively that he at least won his own kingdom — Lucifer.
– Saul Alinsky

Temporary Kingdom just like every thing Licifer offers. Last but a short time. We live at most 120 years what is that compared to eternity. Is sin ever really worth it?

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 4:03 AM

Hawaii, 38% in, Mitt 34% Rick 31% Crazy Uncle 21%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 4:04 AM

Hawaii, 44% in, Mitt, 34% Rick 30% Crazy Uncle 22%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 4:06 AM

Is everyone aware that Kim Jung Il’s body is preserved forever along with Kim Il-sung’s? They’re both is glass cases for the masses to adore. I say we bomb the crap (no curse words) out of Pyongyang and free all those political prisoners.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:06 AM

Think CNN quit for the night stuck at 24% Mitt still only 31%.

Good Night all.

Well google did not quit 47%
Romney 34
Santorum 31.

What a disastrous night for Romney. He probably thinks he is in Hell right now.

Nite all.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 4:08 AM

Lucifer didn’t win crap (no curse words) – he was banished to hell.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:09 AM

So was Romneycare don’t ya know //

melle1228 on March 14, 2012 at 3:59 AM

Social liberalism has brought us everything from social security as a ‘retirement’ plan to welfare right up to what we have now – this nonsense with buttholes like Sandra Fluck trying to get us to pay for their ‘liberal’ behaviour.

Lanceman on March 14, 2012 at 4:09 AM

Hawaii 50% in, Mitt 34% Rick 30% Crazy Uncle 22%

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 4:09 AM

Its stunning to see rick doing so well in hawaii.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 4:21 AM

It’s stunning to see Rick doing so well anywhere.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:23 AM

What a disastrous night for Romney. He probably thinks he is in Hell right now.

Nite all.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 4:08 AM

Hmmm.

AL – Santorum 16, Romney 10
MS – Santorum 13, Romney 12
AS – Romney 9, Santorum 0

Hawaii’s district count isn’t in yet, but so far the delegate count tonight is Romney 31, Santorum 29.

Some hell.

Adjoran on March 14, 2012 at 4:25 AM

Nite all.

Steveangell on March 14, 2012 at 4:08 AM

good night :) thanks for all the b movies…they’re awesome

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:25 AM

anyone seen the Onion movie? Steven Seagal punches major nuts!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:26 AM

Hawaii 91% in, Mitt, 46% Rick 25% Crazy Uncle 18%…

I’m calling this one for Mitt.

SWalker on March 14, 2012 at 4:28 AM

Some hell.

Adjoran on March 14, 2012 at 4:25 AM

I thought of a mittens defense! He blows!

wait…

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:28 AM

mittens is the second worst Romney behind Sir Gilligan Romney whom was stranded on an island at sea but never got laid. What a loser.

down with mittens

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:30 AM

Hawaii 99% in – Romney 46%, Santorum 25, Paul 18, Gingrich 11.

The 11 at-large delegates are awarded strictly proportionally, so as it stands right now that would be Romney 5, Santorum 3, Paul 2, Gingrich 1. The three CDs have three delegates each, awarded proportionally, so while we can presume they will split between Romney and Santorum, it’s impossible to know the exact distribution of those 9 until the individual district reports are analyzed (I don’t see them online yet).

The most likely outcome mathematically would be 5-4 Romney, but he could have a 6-3 split, too, of the district delegates.

Hawaii also gets 3 RNC committeeman seats, but by rule they must be unpledged.

Adjoran on March 14, 2012 at 4:33 AM

Santorum hates butt sex…what’s up with that? Straight butt sex I mean – I’m no gayber.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:36 AM

not that there’s anything wrong with that

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:37 AM

Is everyone sleeping or are my jokes just that bad? you can tell the truth, I can’t handle it but so what?

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:38 AM

Even when Romney wins, he gets very little momentum for the next race. Its gonna end up in a brokered convention. Hope they keep Jeb far away. Don’t want them to anoint the 3rd Bush.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 4:41 AM

Ed…you’re a wimp. If you can’t handle censored curse words that is :) I’ve never full blown cursed on this site and if you email me about it I’ll hand you a knuckle sandwich – now defined as a McD’s McRib.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:44 AM

Even when Romney wins, he gets very little momentum for the next race. Its gonna end up in a brokered convention. Hope they keep Jeb far away. Don’t want them to anoint the 3rd Bush.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 4:41 AM

oh God! Bush is a sure loser, even more so than mittens the electable. If it goes brokered, punch Christie in the face and force him to run.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:46 AM

Your jokes are amusing DHChron. Hope the virtual drones are resting.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 4:46 AM

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:44 AM

Mr. Evitable might be inevitable but, continuing to cruise into 3rd place in the more conservative primaries should tell him and his campaign something

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 4:50 AM

thanks tommy – I crave social acceptance. I don’t know why…I hate people and stuff :)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:52 AM

Gohawgs! I hate people except for you :)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:56 AM

Whats your take on Daniels? Would he be an acceptable compromise candidate?

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 4:57 AM

Mitch is acceptable…not ideal by any standard – but better than anything we’ve got. He did have the balls to sign right to work and that merits my endorsement.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:02 AM

one quick comment before i turn in.

i know there’s been a lot of ink spilled on the AL, MS races. Basically, three more or less egual canidates. 35 was best of the bunch for Santo, in AL. 5 point ahead of the other two.

MS…tighter still…what 32, 29,29? No one sprung ahead…no glorious wins…a tough race, scratching for each vote.

and maybe that’s ok

r keller on March 14, 2012 at 5:02 AM

Gohawgs! I hate people except for you :)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 4:56 AM

I get that a lot…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:03 AM

I liked newt, but its high time he and uncle ron bowed out of the race. At this point, they are just wasting their donors money.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:07 AM

I get that a lot…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:03 AM

probably cause you’re awesome and stuff. Awesome likes awesome says DHChron. Plus Texas hates Arkansas, and I moved here at 26 so I’m amused by that. I’m a Philly fan, so the Cowboys h8tahs amuse me too.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:08 AM

Mitch is acceptable…not ideal by any standard – but better than anything we’ve got. He did have the balls to sign right to work and that merits my endorsement.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:02 AM

A year after having worked with the head of the Indiana Senate(R) — and informing the dems — not to have RTW come up during the legislative session…His prepared remarks to the Press Club in DC that included including a VAT to our mix of taxes…Those, and other, items makes him come up short when considering an alternative…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:08 AM

I liked newt, but its high time he and uncle ron bowed out of the race. At this point, they are just wasting their donors money.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:07 AM

I’m a newt fan too, but I think Santz should drop out, only because I did butt sex with a woman once and it was fantastic. (that was a joke ED…chill out)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:10 AM

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:08 AM

I did not know that Hawg…thanks for the info. You can definitely use my glock or 12 gauge any time.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:12 AM

Hawaii 99% in – Romney 46%, Santorum 25, Paul 18, Gingrich 11.

The 11 at-large delegates are awarded strictly proportionally, so as it stands right now that would be Romney 5, Santorum 3, Paul 2, Gingrich 1. The three CDs have three delegates each, awarded proportionally, so while we can presume they will split between Romney and Santorum, it’s impossible to know the exact distribution of those 9 until the individual district reports are analyzed (I don’t see them online yet).

The most likely outcome mathematically would be 5-4 Romney, but he could have a 6-3 split, too, of the district delegates.

Hawaii also gets 3 RNC committeeman seats, but by rule they must be unpledged.

Adjoran on March 14, 2012 at 4:33 AM

Hawaii only has two CDs, and according to the map I’m looking at, one is metro Honolulu and one is everything else. There’s a BYU campus outside Honolulu so Mitt probably killed it in the everything else district and then it will come down to how Honolulu itself voted. He won that island 2:1 and he seems to do well in urban centers so I’m guessing he will probably take the delegates apportioned to the CDs pretty cleanly.

alchemist19 on March 14, 2012 at 5:16 AM

As this race drags on, the polarisation within the GOP is becoming self-evident. Maybe a brokered convention with a new compromise candidate isn’t bad afterall. Whoever he or she is, will have to unite all wings of the GOP to take on obama.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:17 AM

Santorum can’t win. I’m amazed he has gotten this far. There’s no such thing as a big government conservative.

V7_Sport on March 14, 2012 at 5:17 AM

Newt is staying in so Mitt can’t aim all of his millions of dollars in negative campaign ads against Santorum in each state. Newt is being strategic here. If Romney tries to blast each of the other 2 with $2 to $3 million each per state, even Mittens doesn’t have that kind of money. Not to mention people are really getting sick of the negative ads.

Newt is unabashedly aiming for no one to arrive at 1144 before the convention.

There are going to be 60 days of “jawboning” after the utah primary. Drama people, drama.

karenhasfreedom on March 14, 2012 at 5:18 AM

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:17 AM

Pence?…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:19 AM

Santorum can’t win. I’m amazed he has gotten this far. There’s no such thing as a big government conservative.

V7_Sport on March 14, 2012 at 5:17 AM

why do the “truCons” not realize this?

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:22 AM

Scott Walker?…Dick Cheney???

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:23 AM

Pence?…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:19 AM

Pence is a congressman, they never get elected (I realize this contradicts my previous statement that Paul Ryan would have run away with the nomination, but he’s no common congressman)

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:25 AM

why do the “Cons” not realize this?

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:22 AM

Many probably do. It’s just that the 3rd place Primary finisher from ’08, the John Kerry of the Republican party is a weathervane and they’re looking for an alternative and/or making a statement…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:26 AM

Scott Walker! Now there’s a candidate!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:27 AM

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:25 AM

Yeah…Maybe after a term or 2 as Guv of Indiana…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:27 AM

1) romney is weak.
2) democrats are super happy
3) newt should bow out and endorse santorum
4) if newt endorses santorum, then there is good chance of santorum victory.

ugh!
forget 2012… who we going to pick for 2016?

nathor on March 14, 2012 at 5:28 AM

Many probably do. It’s just that the 3rd place Primary finisher from ’08, the John Kerry of the Republican party is a weathervane and they’re looking for an alternative and/or making a statement…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:26 AM

making a statement I’d say. As a southern Baptist I’d say it’s a retarded statement. The pope ain’t God folks…he’s just a man – fallible as the rest of us.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:30 AM

Lol. Gohawgs, definitely not dick cheney. Walker and Christie are acceptable but controversial. Daniels could unite the party, methinks. Any other non-severely but true conservative governors out there?

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:32 AM

1) romney is weak.
2) democrats are super happy
3) newt should bow out and endorse santorum
4) if newt endorses santorum, then there is good chance of santorum victory.

ugh!
forget 2012… who we going to pick for 2016?

nathor on March 14, 2012 at 5:28 AM

obviously Christie. Let’s hope none of the conservative justices croaks in their sleep.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:32 AM

Lol. Gohawgs, definitely not dick cheney. Walker and Christie are acceptable but controversial. Daniels could unite the party, methinks. Any other non-severely but true conservative governors out there?

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:32 AM

no one likes me for saying this but Huntsman was a better mittens than mittens.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:34 AM

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:30 AM

That explains the red tinge on and about your neck…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:35 AM

Hmmm. Romney loses AL and MS, wins Samoa and Hawaii, actually expands his delegate lead on the night and . . . some idiots think he’s the one with the delusions?

I blame the public schools.

Adjoran on March 14, 2012 at 5:38 AM

DHChron, you’re absolutely right. Huntsman was better.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:39 AM

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:32 AM

C’mon, Darth Cheney would tear the obamanation a new one and not even bat an eye while lib heads would be explode EVERYWHERE…A twofer…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:39 AM

That explains the red tinge on and about your neck…

Gohawgs on March 14, 2012 at 5:35 AM

I might have a red tinge, but I also have a lot of guns and I hate killing babies…so LOVE ME!! PLEASE!!

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:44 AM

obviously Christie. Let’s hope none of the conservative justices croaks in their sleep.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:32 AM

rand paul?

christie would be ok too. just no religious radicals please!

nathor on March 14, 2012 at 5:45 AM

If it goes to a brokered convention, we need to pick someone who can unite all legs of the GOP – fiscal, social and national security. Realistically, thats the only way to truly beat Obama. One leg hating on the other just weakens the GOP. Our compromise candidate should be marginally acceptable to all 3 legs.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:45 AM

no one likes me for saying this but Huntsman was a better mittens than mittens.

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:34 AM

of course he was. and he had real chances of beating the zero.

nathor on March 14, 2012 at 5:46 AM

DHChron, you’re absolutely right. Huntsman was better.

tommy71 on March 14, 2012 at 5:39 AM

and the man can play the piano…plus! sorta hot daughters.

I just thought of a Romney defense! Romney blows!

wait…

DHChron on March 14, 2012 at 5:47 AM

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