Open thread: Alabama and Mississippi; NBC calls Alabama for Santorum; Fox News calls Mississippi for Santorum; Santorum video added

posted at 7:30 pm on March 13, 2012 by Allahpundit

The polls close at 8 p.m. ET. Am I right in thinking that after two months and 26 elections, these are the first primaries that are legit toss-ups between all three candidates? Until now, it’s always been Romney vs. either Santorum or Gingrich as the regionally designated Not Romney, but tonight either state could break for any of them. RCP has them separated by less than three points in Alabama and six points in Mississippi. And bear in mind, per Nate Silver, polls of the deep south have been less reliable in recent years than polls of other regions. Anything could happen here, including a pair of 32/31/30 splits. Excitement.

Jay Cost notes that Romney should have a better shot in Alabama because he does well with urban voters and there are more of them there than in Mississippi. Serious question, though. Is a sweep Mitt’s most desirable outcome tonight? He badly wants to win one of these states so that he can claim the approval of the GOP’s southern base, but if he takes them both, Gingrich will be devastated and might very well quit notwithstanding his tough talk this morning. Romney doesn’t want a two-man race with Santorum: If Team Sweater Vest starts beating him head to head, then Mitt could well end up in June with a plurality of delegates (thanks to proportional rules) but a badly weakened case for why he should be the nominee at a brokered convention. I’m thinking maybe his optimal scenario is to win one state and have Newt win the other. That’ll keep Gingrich in the game while still giving Romney bragging rights about a win in the deep south. By the same token, the Romney (and Gingrich) disaster scenario is Santorum winning both states. It would give RS a killer talking point about the base lining up behind him to be the RINO dragon-slayer, which might be the death blow for Newt.

Here’s the Google Elections page for all your result-following needs. Don’t get too caught up in delegate counts for these states, though — Hawaii and American Samoa are also voting today so the numbers will change as their results come in overnight. (Romney is favored.) Lots of updates coming, including exit polls as soon as they’re available. While we wait, a point to ponder: Are we sure that Gingrich dropping out would be a big problem for Mitt? His own team claims that it wouldn’t. Based on some of the poll data, they might be right.

Update: Preliminary exit poll results show a lots of evangelicals turning out in both states, which is no surprise and is good news for Santorum, needless to say. The proportion of those voters in Alabama and Mississippi are in line with the proportions in Tennessee and Oklahoma, both of which he won comfortably.

Update: Via BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski, a lesson from 2007 on … “ultimate conservatism.”

Update: As promised, the Alabama and Mississippi exit polls. Back in a few with highlights.

Update: An interesting gender split in Alabama: Newt narrowly won men while Santorum won women by eight points. (So much for the “women hate RS” meme.) And yet, based on the numbers, it looks like Newt is set to finish just a hair behind Romney in third place. Two other interesting data points. First, ideology:

That’s confirmation of the CW all the way. Santorum wins righties over Newt, the center-right splits three ways, and then Romney cleans up with moderates and liberals. Similarly:

Rarely have you seen three different candidates split this perennial question about qualities the electorate is looking for, but here you go. Again, perfect reflection of the CW. See why we’re in for a close race?

Misssissippi exit analysis coming up.

Update: Same odd story for Newt in Mississippi. He wins narrowly among men but may yet end up finishing a very close third because of Romney’s and Santorum’s relative strength with women. Here’s the data point of the night so far, though:

Fully 80 percent of the electorate is evangelical — and Romney somehow managed to fight Santorum to a draw among them. If he ends up winning the state, that’s the story. Another surprisingly strong Romney showing comes with voters without a college degree. That’s supposed to be Newt’s and Rick’s bread and butter, but no:

Romney also tied Santorum for the lead among voters who make less than $50,000 per year. As for qualities in a candidate, Mississippi looks a lot like Alabama:

And one more just for fun that someone flagged on Twitter:

Among voters who said Ron Paul’s positions are “about right,” the candidate of choice is … Mitt Romney?

Needless to say, Santorum can live with splitting these states with Romney. Job one is getting Gingrich out of the race ASAP. If Newt finishes third in both, we might very well see it. I wonder if we’ll see it tonight.

Update: David Freddoso has a copy of a memo sent out tonight by Team Newt vowing that they’ll soldier on, which sounds like they’re conceding the evening. Bachmann vowed to soldier on the night she finished last in Iowa too but was gone the next day. Stay tuned.

Update: It’s now 90 minutes after the polls closed and … 7.2 percent of Alabama precincts have reported. Santorum leads there and in Mississippi (where 24 percent have reported) as I write this.

Update: Romney told CNN earlier that Santorum is at “the desperate end of his campaign.” Right message, wrong target.

Update: At 9:53 ET, and with only 26 percent reporting, NBC finally calls Alabama for Santorum. And don’t look now, but with 78 percent reporting in Mississippi, Santorum is clinging to a 2,000-vote lead over Gingrich. Romney is another 2,000 votes back. Looks like the exits got it wrong there, likely vis-a-vis the evangelical numbers.

The worst-case scenario for Mitt tonight was a Santorum sweep. We’re on the verge of it.

Update: Aha. Philip Klein notes that CNN has now updated their exit poll numbers. (Unfortunately, the early data isn’t always final.) Remember how it was a big deal that Romney and Santorum were tied at 32 among evangelicals in Mississippi? Here’s how it looks now:

That’s why Rick is doing better than expected and Mitt’s doing worse.

Update: Mississippi’s not called yet but Team Santorum is already elbowing Newt:

Rick Santorum spokesperson Alice Stewart said she believes after Tuesday night it will be a “two-man race” between Santorum and Mitt Romney…

A “son of the South” like Gingrich, she said, “should be doing much better than this.”

“This is going to be, after tonight, this will be a two-man race,” Stewart said. “It’s going to be Rick and Mitt, and we’re going to clear the field and Rick’s got a good shot down the road.”

Update: Now 83 percent reporting in Mississippi and the numbers are holding — Santorum by 2,000 votes over Gingrich and Romney 5,000 votes behind. Jackson’s county, where Romney is piling up votes, is 89 percent in right now so there’s not much meat on the bone left there either for him.

Update: With 90 percent in now, Santorum’s lead has expanded to more than 3,000 votes. I’m reluctant to forecast a race even at this late hour after the last-minute Romney comeback in Ohio, but it looks like Team Sweater Vest is going to pull off the sweep. One last dramatic twist to this interminable primary.

Update: More than 96 percent in now as of 10:40 ET and Santorum’s lead is nearly 4,000 votes. He’s going to pull this off and Romney’s going to finish third in both states. What a deflating defeat for the presumptive nominee, especially after that early exit poll had him winning Mississippi. We should get the call soon.

Update: At 10:43 ET, there’s the call from Fox News. Santorum wins Mississippi and sweeps the southern primaries today. Wow.

Update: Matt Lewis says it’s time for Newt to take a hint:

While the idea Gingrich could or would win a brokered convention seems absurd, it is likely that continuing to accrue delegates would give him additional bargaining leverage going into the Republican convention in Tampa this summer.

But there are good reasons for Gingrich to reject that cynical strategy. First, if he truly believes Mitt Romney is a “Massachusetts moderate” masquerading as a conservative, then he owes it to Republican voters to give former Sen. Rick Santorum a clean shot at wresting the nomination from him. I’m pretty sure Santorum has earned it.

Second, staying in the race — merely in order to play a king maker or to curry favor at a later time — is hardly the most honorable or inspiring reason to remain in a race. Gingrich would be essentially asking donors to contribute money to a campaign he knows cannot win — and he would be asking voters to cast their votes for a candidate he knows can’t win.

Gingrich’s problem after tonight is that he might have lost the last shreds of his constituency, whether or not he’s inclined to quit. If you’re a Republican who’s dead set against nominating Romney, what’s the argument for sticking with Newt? Either you’re staying home because you can’t stand Santorum or else you’re gritting your teeth and pulling the lever for the Sweater Vest. There’s no compelling reason to go to the polls for Gingrich. He can’t win even in his own backyard.

Update: PPP: “Our NC GOP poll coming out tomorrow shows an 8 point shift toward Santorum if Newt was out. Nothing but a spoiler at this point.” If Newt wants revenge on Romney for spoiling his chances in Iowa and Florida, dropping out and endorsing Santorum is his best option.

Update: Gingrich is giving his concession speech now and vowing to go on but I don’t think it’s up to him. His voters need to decide their next move. If they break for Santorum and he starts beating Romney head to head — starting next Tuesday in Illinois — then he’s got a compelling narrative headed into the convention even if Mitt ends up winning a plurality of delegates. Namely, “the only reason Romney ended up with a delegate lead is because Newt and I split conservatives in the early primaries. Once Newt faded and it turned into a binary choice, I was the clear preference of the majority.” That is to say, if Santorum can put together a winning streak against Romney, he can point to tonight’s results as a de facto “reset” of the primary. Southern voters discarded Gingrich and adopted him and that propelled him to a series of wins. Forget the delegate count and focus on that strenuous “Not Romney” sentiment among Republican voters. That’s his argument. Romney needs a counter.

Update: Here’s Santorum’s speech, in which he marvels “we did it again.” Elsewhere, Nate Silver remembers that Gingrich’s own spokesman called Alabama and Mississippi must-wins for him just a few days ago.


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Hang in there, boot.

The Nerve on March 13, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Santorum will take Alabama.

technopeasant on March 13, 2012 at 7:33 PM

AP, what if Gingrich wins both states? You left that out of your analysis.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:33 PM

What is Drudge referencing? It would make me happy if Romney had it in the bad, I just don’t understand what he is referencing…

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:35 PM

had it in the bag”

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Yankee go home.

portlandon on March 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Standard “Drinking Game” rules apply Ladies and Gentlemen…

… Extra shots any time someone says “The South“.

I have a previous engagement with little 7% and the batting cages, but I will be back to join in later on…

… Enjoy!

Hang in there Newt…!!!

Seven Percent Solution on March 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

What is Drudge referencing? It would make me happy if Romney had it in the bad, I just don’t understand what he is referencing…

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:35 PM

He cited network exit polling earlier…based on that, supposedly, Mitt took MS while Alabama was too close to say.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

By the same token, the Romney (and Gingrich) disaster scenario is Santorum winning both states.

This would be the “Bluegill’s head explodes” scenario.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:38 PM

FYI, Romney isnt supposed to win either of these states. The burden is on Santo and Gingrich especially to win down there. If Romney even wins one, thats huge, because hes going to win Hawaii and American Samoa as well. From his point on the calender only becomes more favorable to Romney, so tonight is big for Santo and Gingrich. I suspect if Gingrich loses both, hes out.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:38 PM

my prediction: most voters in MS and AL will say defeating obama is job one and will have voted for mitt.

those self-ID’ing as VERY CONSERVATIVE will have voted for tricky ricky; he will place second in both states.

santorum will blame newt and paul and drudge and fox and stay in – which only helps obama. sigh.

reliapundit on March 13, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Here we go!!

MSLSD Streaming Online!

http://www.zahistation.com/watch-msnbc-news-live

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:35 PM

He was pushing his own online poll with the previous headline, but the headline he’s got now sounds exit-polling-ish. But if that were the case, I’m sure Allahpundit would’ve included the clues in the Update, so who knows what Drudge is doing.

Weight of Glory on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

gotta head out to bowl shortly, will check you all out in between frames

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Bishop on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

AP, what if Gingrich wins both states? You left that out of your analysis.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Sheldon Adelson has an orgasm.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

tingles alert…tingles alert

:)

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

I don’t expect objectivity or fairness from Drudge, but wow, is he ever in Romney’s corner.

YYZ on March 13, 2012 at 7:40 PM

What’s the score?

Oh wait. This isn’t the NIT thread? Cancel that question.

predator on March 13, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Seven Percent Solution on March 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

see you later 7%

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:40 PM

begala brings up the muslim issue

c’mon

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Here’s to hoping it ends tonight

timbok on March 13, 2012 at 7:42 PM

CBS radio news was hinting exit polling favoring Romney. We’ll see. I heard snippets from all three giving speeches today and they all sound pretty dang good. Mitt Romney must have heard someone carping about his kid gloves on President Obama because he’s starting to sound like Mr. Not Really All That Nice Guy now towards the president now. Even more please. Can we crank it up all the way to No More Mr. Nice Guy?

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

begala brings up the muslim issue

c’mon

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:41 PM

That’s when you know the Democrats are shakin’ in their boots. Begala is nastier than usual, which means Romney must be doing better than he expected in AL and MS.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

….and in Hawaii…(Bluegill reporting)

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

FYI, Romney isnt supposed to win either of these states. The burden is on Santo and Gingrich especially to win down there. If Romney even wins one, thats huge, because hes going to win Hawaii and American Samoa as well. From his point on the calender only becomes more favorable to Romney, so tonight is big for Santo and Gingrich. I suspect if Gingrich loses both, hes out.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Indeed. I’d be shocked if Romney won either MS or AL.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Can someone please explain to me Santorum’s Executive Experience so I can look to how well he performed as an Executive so I can get an idea of how he will perform as the worlds’ #1 Executive?

mitchellvii on March 13, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Can we crank it up all the way to No More Mr. Nice Guy?

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

THIS!!!!!

screw what the lsm may think of you, they already think the worse

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Voting Results!
***************
***************

Alabama
Primary Election | March 13, 2012

http://www.myvotealabama.com/
=============================

2012 Alabama Primary
Explore the results by county.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/alabama-primary-march-13/results-by-county
===========================

2012 Mississippi Primary
Explore the results by county.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/mississippi-primary-march-13/results-by-county
****************************

Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus Live
A Live Wire feed following the first-ever Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus.

http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Hawaii_Republican_Presidential_Caucus
===

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:38 PM
changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Lol trying to manage expectations?

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

it was that and birth control they can’t talk about anything else apparently

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Romney in Mississippi is over 70% on Intrade. That… seems a bit high.

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

CBS radio news was hinting exit polling favoring Romney. We’ll see. I heard snippets from all three giving speeches today and they all sound pretty dang good. Mitt Romney must have heard someone carping about his kid gloves on President Obama because he’s starting to sound like Mr. Not Really All That Nice Guy now towards the president now. Even more please. Can we crank it up all the way to No More Mr. Nice Guy?

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I’m looking forward to the debates between the two if Romney does get the nomination. Romney tore Shannon O’Brien, the Democratic candidate for Governor in MA, apart in their debate. She actually looked like she was about to cry at one point. I expect him taking it to Obama in the same way.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

ok, gotta go bowl…y’all be good :)

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I don’t expect objectivity or fairness from Drudge, but wow, is he ever in Romney’s corner.

YYZ on March 13, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Just like everyone should be who is serious about defeating ObaMao in November…

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

That’s when you know the Democrats are shakin’ in their boots. Begala is nastier than usual, which means Romney must be doing better than he expected in AL and MS.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Coupled with Obama starting to crater in the polls. Liberals will go bananas if Obama is ousted.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Romney in Mississippi is over 70% on Intrade. That… seems a bit high.

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

InTrade really isn’t very predictive and is very easy to manipulate.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

see you later 7%

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Have fun bowling…

:)

Seven Percent Solution on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Just like everyone should be who is serious about defeating ObaMao in November…

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Get a room.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Yankee go home.

portlandon on March 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Were you talking to me?

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

ok, gotta go bowl…y’all be good :)

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Bowl a Home Run for all of us!

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Ugh,F $%T&*U()_)(*&^%$#$%^&*(&^%$#$%&T^*YU( linkys
gone into space,I’ll try this a F%$^&*()(*&^%&^*(&^
again!

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

it was that and birth control they can’t talk about anything else apparently

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Yup. They’re desperate. They can’t focus on jobs and the economy so they have to resort to birtherism and contraception. Says a lot.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Looks like another Romney night. Congrats Mitt! (not that you’re reading HotAir)

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Is this the part where the media tells half the country how stupid and racist they must be for living in the south?

MechanicalBill on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

ok, gotta go bowl…y’all be good :)

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

cmsinaz:Enjoy yourself!:)

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:48 PM

InTrade really isn’t very predictive and is very easy to manipulate.

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I’m aware it’s not very predictive, I’m incredulous that it’s that high. In about six hours I figure I’m going to be kicking myself for not loading up on Gingrich and Santorum futures because I think one of them is going to pay off huge.

alchemist19 on March 13, 2012 at 7:48 PM

CBS radio news was hinting exit polling favoring Romney. We’ll see. I heard snippets from all three giving speeches today and they all sound pretty dang good. Mitt Romney must have heard someone carping about his kid gloves on President Obama because he’s starting to sound like Mr. Not Really All That Nice Guy now towards the president now. Even more please. Can we crank it up all the way to No More Mr. Nice Guy?

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Absolutely!

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Lol trying to manage expectations?

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Um, remind me again who was supposed to win these? Your boy Newt, no? They’re not strong states for Romney.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus Live
A Live Wire feed following the first-ever Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus.

http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Hawaii_Republican_Presidential_Caucus

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:49 PM

1. Romney 2. Gingrich 3. Santorum 4. Paul
I just don’t see it working out any different. Might be a switch for 1 and 2 in one or both of the states, but I doubt it. The only question is by how much does Santorum take 3 place in comparison to Romney.

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Is this the part where the media tells half the country how stupid and racist they must be for living in the south?

MechanicalBill on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

They’ll probably save that one for November when Obalala gets swept down there.

predator on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Why is drudge calling Mississippi for Romney???

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

alwaysfiredup on March 13, 2012 at 7:45 PM

No, its just math. Look at the remaining primaries. If Santo or Gingrich cant beat Romney here, where do they beat him? According to Drudge Romney will win Mississippi, that wasnt supposed to happen.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

He was pushing his own online poll with the previous headline, but the headline he’s got now sounds exit-polling-ish. But if that were the case, I’m sure Allahpundit would’ve included the clues in the Update, so who knows what Drudge is doing.

For what it’s worth, Drudge was most certainly NOT citing his own online polling for those early MS and AL numbers. (That would be ridiculous.) What he was citing were the 5:00PM exit polls that were given to a bunch of reporters, Mark Halperin of Time as well as Politico and CNN.

Now the first round of exits is always off a bit, because voting trends change during different parts of the day (especially after work, when a major rush of voting often happens).

Incidentally, Romney’s own camp has told Politico that they firmly expect to win Mississippi, but that Santorum should take Alabama in a close race. FYI and all.

Esoteric on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Looks like another Romney night. Congrats Mitt! (not that you’re reading HotAir)

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Oh, I don’t know about that…

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

alright dammit. I just took brats off the grill and gots beer in the fridge. i’ll be checking back regular, so ya’ll be cool.

ted c on March 13, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Alabama:Results
****************

Primary Election | March 13, 2012

http://www.myvotealabama.com/
=============================

2012 Alabama Primary
Explore the results by county.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/alabama-primary-march-13/results-by-county

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:51 PM

At the end of the day, it is still the delegates that counts. No matter who won total vote counts in AL and MS later tonight, the delegate hauls will still be close. And don’t forget Hawaii and American Samoa delegates, which will largely go to Romney.

galtani on March 13, 2012 at 7:51 PM

CBS radio news was hinting exit polling favoring Romney. We’ll see. I heard snippets from all three giving speeches today and they all sound pretty dang good. Mitt Romney must have heard someone carping about his kid gloves on President Obama because he’s starting to sound like Mr. Not Really All That Nice Guy now towards the president now. Even more please. Can we crank it up all the way to No More Mr. Nice Guy?

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:43 PM

THIS!!!

This plus a good conservative veep pick can help him salvage the general.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Why is drudge calling Mississippi for Romney???

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Why not?

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:49 PM

lol, cano. Your last comment looked like you were wrestling with a water hose.

Off to buy buy more joint compound myself. Post some good progress comments.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

2012 Mississippi Primary
Explore the results by county.
*******************************

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/mississippi-primary-march-13/results-by-county

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Come on Rick. Give Hume a headache for the night.

Southernblogger on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I’m surprised many in here don’t know why Drudge is in the tank for Romney.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 7:53 PM

This plus a good conservative veep pick can help him salvage the general.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Oh, and $6/gallon gas would be the cherry on top.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Why is drudge calling Mississippi for Romney???

Probably because both tranches of exit polling have now come out and Romney led comfortably in both, is my guess. He was up by nearly 10% in the first wave (which Drudge ran on his site for awhile). I assume the second wave showed a similar margin or at least enough of a gap to make it all but certain.

Just educated guessing on my part. I will note that a lot of other political coverage happening right now seems to be tipping/hinting that MS will go Romney’s way, so it would seem like they’re hearing the same things.

I do find it surprising that MS is supposedly ‘in the bag’ for Romney whereas AL is tight but leaning more likely to Santorum. I would have thought the likely outcomes of those two states to be reversed.

Esoteric on March 13, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Yeah VP pick is going to be especially important this year. Curious to see what direction he goes, I dont think it will be Rubio.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:54 PM

The mere idea that Mitt is even close in either two of these states shocks me. If he wins one of two that’s for sure a dagger in Newt’s run. And a major major blow to Santorum’s campaign.

Minnfidel on March 13, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Why not?

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

BC the polls are real tight, seems very premature, no???

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 7:54 PM

So, McCain Redux, Serial Liar, or Dark Ages Admirer?

These primaries suck.

mythicknight on March 13, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Oh, and $6/gallon gas would be the cherry on top.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Before I go, gas won’t do it my friend. It’ll peak in the summer above 4. Folks will get used to it and it’ll drop in the Fall like it most always does. Gas I bet will look like one thing he did have a positive effect on.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Serious question, though. Is a sweep Mitt’s most desirable outcome tonight?

Serious question: Is that a serious question?

Go RBNY on March 13, 2012 at 7:56 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:49 PM
lol, cano. Your last comment looked like you were wrestling with a water hose.

Off to buy buy more joint compound myself. Post some good progress comments.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:52 PM

hawkdriver:

Yup,I put up all the Election Vote Result linkys,and stupid
me,I usually paste/copy,as insurance,sooo,I gots to redo it!

Lol,ya fight’n with da hose all right,and progress,will
do————————————-:)

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:56 PM

BC the polls are real tight, seems very premature, no???

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I guess we’ll find out soon enough…

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I have a previous engagement with little 7% and the batting cages, but I will be back to join in later on…

… Enjoy!

Hang in there Newt…!!!

Seven Percent Solution on March 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Have a great time, those years go by very quickly.

batterup on March 13, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Received one slick, ginormous mailer (asking for donations) and two robo-calls for Romney in Illinois today. Heaven help me make it to the election…

Fallon on March 13, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Incidentally, Romney’s own camp has told Politico that they firmly expect to win Mississippi, but that Santorum should take Alabama in a close race. FYI and all.

Esoteric on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

If this is true, most likely the Catholics in the southern part of Mississippi turned out for Romney. I know the coast line is solidly catholic, but the more north you go, the more Southern Baptist you come across. Could be the difference in winning Mississippi and losing Alabama.

I think Romney’s team is artificially inflating Santorum so that if he gets third place it really hurts him.

ArkyDore on March 13, 2012 at 7:57 PM

If he wins one of two that’s for sure a dagger in Newt’s run. And a major major blow to Santorum’s campaign.

Minnfidel on March 13, 2012 at 7:54 PM

If Mitt wins both, Santorum and Newt are done. If Mitt wins one then it probably moves forward. Hawaii and America Samoa will be Romney wins for sure.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 7:58 PM

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Could not disagree more. Gas is 4 dollars now, will be over 5 by summer. That doesnt just affect what you pay at the pump, food is going to cost more, clothes ect. Anything that gets to you via truck. Obama is at 41 percent approval now due to gas prices and they will only get worse. People who live from paycheck to paycheck will not get “used” to five dollar gas.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:58 PM

.@TheAtlanticPOL reports planned Republican presidential debate in Portland, Oregon, is canceled

Submitted 50 secs ago from http://www.theatlantic.com
http://www.breakingnews.com/
=============================

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/03/sorry-portland-there-wont-be-a-presidential-debate-next-week/254458/

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:34 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:58 PM

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM
tingles alert…tingles alert

:)

cmsinaz on March 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

cmsinaz:No kidding!:)

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 7:59 PM

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I don’t disagree that it’ll inflate the cost of everything else and he’ll take a hit on the economy in general. Gas prices fall in the Fall.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Oh, I don’t know about that… (about whether Mitt reads HotAir)

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Anything is possible I suppose, but I seriously doubt HE reads it, unless an aide brings HA forum postings to him as indications of his chances with the HA crowd.

Which I must say, if he WERE to be a reader of these postings, he would be one mightily depressed individual… ;-)

SauerKraut537 on March 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Fallon on March 13, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I’m in east central and got a robo from Ricko a few nights ago. No Romney or Newt stuff…yet.

predator on March 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Based on CNN’s exit polls, Santorum wins AL and Romney wins MS.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Evangelical Christians dominate Alabama, Mississippi GOP presidential primaries, according to preliminary results of exit polls

Submitted 24 mins ago from hosted.ap.org
http://www.breakingnews.com/
=============================

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

So mitt in Miss and Santorum in Alabama. Mitt will win the day again in delegates.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Can someone please explain to me Santorum’s Executive Experience so I can look to how well he performed as an Executive so I can get an idea of how he will perform as the worlds’ #1 Executive?

mitchellvii on March 13, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Ummmm FYI: He is a petulant man-child who has served in the US Senate, just like our current POTUS.

Not exactly enough for a resume, but it’ll have to do.

carl todd hand on March 13, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Based on CNN’s exit polls, Santorum wins AL and Romney wins MS.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Yup, Newt might finish in last in both states…

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 8:02 PM

It’s pretty shocking Mitt will win in MS. That was a must win for Santorum (or Gingrich).

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Both states too close to call. Santorum in Alabama slightly and Romney in Misissippi.

jazzmo on March 13, 2012 at 8:03 PM

I don’t disagree that it’ll inflate the cost of everything else and he’ll take a hit on the economy in general. Gas prices fall in the Fall.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Unless Iran saber-rattling continues.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Based on CNN’s exit polls, Santorum wins AL and Romney wins MS.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Yup, Newt might finish in last in both states…

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Well third (let’s not forget about Ron Paul), but I know what you meant.

GOPRanknFile on March 13, 2012 at 8:04 PM

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 8:00 PM

They wont be falling by enough in October and those who have just been slammed in the summer wont suddenly warm to Obama. Hes in deep trouble, which means this is going to be a horrifically nasty campaign. His folks are desperate despite the MSM spin that Obama has this in the bag.

nswider on March 13, 2012 at 8:04 PM

What role should Romney offer Newt in exchange for his endorsement?

EddieC on March 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

If Romney actually manages to win in Mississippi, after being written off completely in both states, that’s gotta be the dagger.

How the hell did that happen, actually?

Esoteric on March 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

So mitt in Miss and Santorum in Alabama. Mitt will win the day again in delegates.

rubberneck on March 13, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Yes, but Ricky Sans will win more delegates this week, don’t forget the biggest prize is Missouri on Saturday…

MGardner on March 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

They had a nice clip on TV about Romney and Sanitarium trying to connect with the people of Missisipi and Alabama. No doubt it was edited to look a certain way but it was funny.

Both Yankees looked ill at ease like they had stepped into the movie Deliverance and the locals looked non-plussed.

CorporatePiggy on March 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

LOL @ Ron Paul

jp on March 13, 2012 at 8:06 PM

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