Bloomberg: Romney up 10 nationally

posted at 9:50 am on March 13, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

As we wait for the Southern Nights primary, Bloomberg has a new national poll of the Republican presidential contest that shows Mitt Romney with a solid ten-point lead over Rick Santorum, and 24 points over a fading Newt Gingrich.  However, both the GOP results and overall survey have some serious flaws that call this conclusion into serious question.  The Bloomberg report hits the highlights well enough:

A Bloomberg National Poll shows Romney with the support of 37 percent, compared with 27 percent for Santorum. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s backing is 13 percent while U.S. Representative Ron Paul draws 11 percent.

“He’s a businessman and has a better idea of how to run something,” said Republican poll participant Beverly Link, 68, a clerical worker from Maumee, Ohio. “So many things about our country should be run more like a business, instead of just throwing money at everything.”

Bloomberg then uses the next six paragraphs dissecting Romney’s work at Bain Capital as a potential hurdle in a general election.  They asked three questions about Bain in the survey after the candidate-selection question, and another about the Mormon Church before it.  In contrast, they asked no questions about Barack Obama’s crony capitalism, nor of Newt Gingrich’s Freddie Mac work.  They only asked one question about Santorum specifically, and that was whether he should focus on the economy or on values (82/11 on the economy).  That looks suspiciously like a poll built to fuel a particular story line or two, rather than an honest assessment of the race.

The composition of the poll is also questionable.  The overall survey was taken of just over 1,000 adults, rather than registered or likely voters.  The GOP primary questions relied on a subsample of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, a very small sample for a national poll.  The D/R/I split in the poll was actually very close to reality, at 35/34/27, but the small sample and the general-population type make its worth as a predictive model quite low.

Interestingly, even with the strange focus on Romney, he polled quite well on the internals.  He gets a better favorability rating than the other candidates in the race in the full survey — oddly, Bloomberg didn’t ask about Barack Obama, although they did ask the favorability question of John Boehner, the Tea Party, and … the Mormon Church.  As I noted above, that question came before the candidate question, which could have undercut Romney’s support.  However, Romney won or placed second in all of the intangible questions, and scored a majority for the ability to beat Barack Obama.

Romney will certainly be happy with these results, and the defects of the poll would normally play against him.  I’d wait to see other polling before putting too much stock into the Bloomberg survey, however, and I’d especially wait for a pollster to survey a much larger sample of likely voters.


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Romney will be the nominee. He cannot even win the south which has been the base of the Republican party since Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan southern white strategy.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

The overall survey was taken of just over 1,000 adults, rather than registered or likely voters.

And I should take this seriously because why?

trapeze on March 13, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Did Bloomburg ever poll the “G-D America!” church?

forest on March 13, 2012 at 9:54 AM

No matter who is chosen, Obama will lose…only the most diehard fans of him, those will little regard except to be a lib, are his only supporters.
It won’t be close…except, Mitt being the weakest will make it close.

right2bright on March 13, 2012 at 9:56 AM

libtard4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Clueless as ever. Congratulations on being consistent.

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Romney will be the nominee. He cannot even win the south which has been the base of the Republican party since Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan southern white strategy.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

No Republican is losing the South in the general.

It won’t be close…except, Mitt being the weakest will make it close.

right2bright on March 13, 2012 at 9:56 AM

You’re clearly not basing that on head-to-head polling with Obama.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Romney will be the nominee. He cannot even win the south which has been the base of the Republican party since Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan southern white strategy.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

They’re going to vote for Obama over Romney in Georgia and Alabama, numbnuts?

If anything, the fact that Romney has been winning the swing states (Florida, Ohio, even New Hampshire) is a better indicator than anything.

Red Cloud on March 13, 2012 at 10:01 AM

And I should take this seriously because why?

trapeze on March 13, 2012 at 9:54 AM

That’s what I say everytime somebody puts up another Perez Hilton Andrew Kaczynski clip of Romney from 20 years ago. Of course, even Ted Kaczynski understands that Romney will be the nominee.

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Romney will be the nominee. He cannot even win the south which has been the base of the Republican party since Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan southern white strategy.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Ronald Reagan had a southern white strategy?
Are you always an idiot…or just around us?

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM

If anything, the fact that Romney has been winning the swing states (Florida, Ohio, even New Hampshire) is a better indicator than anything.

Red Cloud on March 13, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Check the turn out rates and compare it to the turn out when Hillary and Obama were competing.

Mr Robot is not inspiring anyone to turn up at the polls. Too much negativity and carpet-bombing
The VA primary turnout number was a joke for a Republican primary.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Romney by 10
NOBAMA 2012!

Roy Rogers on March 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

…southern white strategy.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

How about ‘southern strategy’, Al? Shockingly, there are a bunch of blacks living in the south along whites. And I’m cure Nixon and Reagan would’ve been tickled pink to have had all of these blacks vote for them if only they weren’t stuck in such a perpetual state of catatonic grievance.

RepubChica on March 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

(Have you ever considered suing your brain…for non-support?)

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Obama wants Romney, the Washington elite want Romney, and the press wants Romney. Isn’t that the same rotation we had last time with McCain? Remember, the one they don’t want is Newt and, apparently the strategy of spending big bucks to trash him, has worked.

Let’s face it, there aren’t many people on the planet worse than Obama so the country will be better off no matter which Republican wins, however, the only one of the bunch who will really fix what’s broken is Newt, which is why they don’t want him there.

bflat879 on March 13, 2012 at 10:09 AM

As we wait for the Southern Nights primary,
===========================================

If you insist Ed:)

Southern Nights – Glen Campbell
*******************************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wOUFo4Lwf8

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Polling “adults” is worthless. The group called “adults” also includes people not registered to vote, convicted felons, illegal immigants, and Canadians. Gallup knows better, but they’re doing this to massage public opinion to the left.

Emperor Norton on March 13, 2012 at 10:12 AM

However, both the GOP results and overall survey have some serious flaws that call this conclusion into serious question.

Therefore, it’s meaningless and not worth discussing. Next.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Gallup Bloomberg knows better

Sorry, brain cramp.

Waiter, more coffee!

Emperor Norton on March 13, 2012 at 10:15 AM

This race is over.

Falz on March 13, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Bloomberg then uses the next six paragraphs dissecting Romney’s work at Bain Capital as a potential hurdle in a general election.

I don’t get this. Why ask about Bain? Has Romney been found to have engaged in illegal activity or something egregiously unethical during his time at the firm? Unless they have some kind of smoking gun on the Bain matter, this is quite a desperate tactic to pull on the voting public.

RepubChica on March 13, 2012 at 10:16 AM

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 10:06 AM

…does someone, at least take you for a walk once in a while?

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:16 AM

How about ‘southern strategy’, Al? Shockingly, there are a bunch of blacks living in the south along whites. And I’m cure Nixon and Reagan would’ve been tickled pink to have had all of these blacks vote for them if only they weren’t stuck in such a perpetual state of catatonic grievance.

RepubChica on March 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

You’re just being baited. Amazing how much these “enlightened’ liberals focus on race.

Bitter Clinger on March 13, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Ronald Reagan had a southern white strategy?
Are you always an idiot…or just around us?

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:03 AM

He’s never around anyone else- HE’S ALWAYS HERE, day or night.

BettyRuth on March 13, 2012 at 10:17 AM

O/T…….Oops!
===============

Ohio lawmaker accused of bribery, will surrender to authorities

Submitted 10 mins ago from http://www.10tv.com
http://www.breakingnews.com/
============================

Ohio State Rep. W. Carlton Weddington (D)

Weddington, a two-term Democrat, from Columbus, was charged with one count of bribery, one count of election falsification and one count of filing a false financial disclosure form.(More…)

http://www.10tv.com/content/stories/2012/03/13/columbus-ohio-representative-carlton-weddington.html
————————————–

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Was’t the point of the TP to focus less on social issues and
more on fiscal? Rick Santelli made this comment last week.

Tater Salad on March 13, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Kool, (From the other thread in reference to liberal4life) (Don’t like to spam but it should be repeated) I’ll just note that that commenter is the most disingenuous troll here. To exchange with it anymore after some of it’s lies and half truths gives credibility to it’s worth beyond it’s merit.

Facts,

It uses that single Ann Coulter quote to derail more threads than any other pile of horse crap it slings.

It claims to be a Christian to gin up anti-Mormon sentiment.

While discussing it’s “faith” it linked to a wiki article about it’s faith that actually contradicted it’s message while that sect it claimed to follow had it’s own web site. One that actually extolled the virtues rather than busting on it.

Nothing much this one writes here is worth your time.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 10:18 AM

O/T…Mmmmmm,the OnGoing SpinaRoo!

US retail spending rose 1.1% in February, best gain in 5 months; auto sales strong

Submitted 1 hour ago by editor
http://www.breakingnews.com/
============================

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Nothing much this one writes here is worth your time.

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 10:18 AM

hawkdriver:GoodMorning,a Crock-Stirring Extraordinaire me thinks!:)

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Maybe a purpose of this poll was to assess Billionaire Mike Bloomberg’s chances as a veep candidate for Obama to replace Biden.

Buy Danish on March 13, 2012 at 10:29 AM

US retail spending rose 1.1% in February, best gain in 5 months; auto sales strong

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Could be cuz sales of pickup trucks and shotguns are spiraling upwards.

Armageddon Prep Spike.

fogw on March 13, 2012 at 10:29 AM

US retail spending rose 1.1% in February, best gain in 5 months; auto sales strong

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Economic good news is like kryptonite to these republicans. They run away from it

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 10:38 AM

hawkdriver on March 13, 2012 at 10:18 AM

…(you think I should lay off? I see people always responding…so I thought I would be the diaper on his stupid azz…so others can discuss and debate.It was that…or I will remind EVERYONE not to respond to IT…and that can get as irratating as IT IS!))

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Come on, Alabama/Mississippi! I’m still a Santorum supporter but would take Newt as my second choice any day. I want a candidate that energizes us and I can get passionate about. Romney leaves me cold. And the prospect of trying to drag that putz across the finish line when we’ll have to be making all kinds of excuses for him and trying to contrast his liberal record with Obama’s liberal record to debate a futile case for a change. How demoralizing and depressing! Come on guys, stop the madness before it’s too late!!

mozalf on March 13, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Economic good news is like kryptonite to these republicans. They run away from it

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 10:38 AM

…thanks to the Republicans who were elected in 2010, who are starting to make a difference locally despite the continued blanket of more and more federal regulations. Even the leftist Senators in my state had to write JugEars a letter…seeing how he starves new Republican Govenors with Federal Funds…while doing the opposite with his libby friends.

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:43 AM

mozalf on March 13, 2012 at 10:39 AM

You know who leaves me cold? Barack Obama.

Buy Danish on March 13, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Maybe a purpose of this poll was to assess Billionaire Mike Bloomberg’s chances as a veep candidate for Obama to replace Biden.

Buy Danish on March 13, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Oh, I highly doubt President Class Warfare is going to put Billionaire Bloomberg on his ticket. The deranged envy has been stoked to near-epic proportions. There would go his Bain Strategy Balloon being floated by the polling media. He just wants the guy’s money. A lot of it. Maybe the community organizer has a Sodium Czar position in the works for Mike. Nanny Mike would just love to take his food-policing national. I do think Biden is here to stay. They did a decent job keeping him locked in the closet the last few years with little incident.

I can see the exorbitant taxing on sugar, salt, caffeine, cigarette consumption coming to a theater near you with these clowns. They’re gonna have to keep us healthy now, especially with ObamaCare the law of the land. Government controlling healthcare will invariably lead to government controlling what you put into your body.

RepubChica on March 13, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Economic good news is like kryptonite to these republicans. They run away from it

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 10:38 AM

…manufactured news, maybe… Superman!

KOOLAID2 on March 13, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Governor of Alabama will vote for Santorum.

The Rick Santorum for President campaign is proud to learn that it has received the vote of the Governor of Alabama, Robert Bentley. On the nationally syndicated radio show, “Rick and Bubba Show,” Alabama Congressman Robert Aderholt made the following announcement:

Congressman Aderholt said: “He and his wife will be voting for Rick Santorum for President. I was very excited to hear our Governor felt his values were in line with Rick Santorum… He has told people that he is voting for Senator Santorum and he holds the values and principles he believes in.”

fight like a girl on March 13, 2012 at 10:59 AM

You’re clearly not basing that on head-to-head polling with Obama.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM

That polling won’t be accurate until there is a “head-to-head” taking place.
Seeing as Mitt has given up much of the debate ground to Obama, I feel Mitt is by far the weaker candidate to take on Obama.

right2bright on March 13, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Governor of Alabama will vote for Santorum.

The Rick Santorum for President campaign is proud to learn that it has received the vote of the Governor of Alabama, Robert Bentley. On the nationally syndicated radio show, “Rick and Bubba Show,” Alabama Congressman Robert Aderholt made the following announcement:

Congressman Aderholt said: “He and his wife will be voting for Rick Santorum for President. I was very excited to hear our Governor felt his values were in line with Rick Santorum… He has told people that he is voting for Senator Santorum and he holds the values and principles he believes in.”

fight like a girl on March 13, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Excellent!

Just Sayin on March 13, 2012 at 11:07 AM

US retail spending rose 1.1% in February, best gain in 5 months; auto sales strong

canopfor on March 13, 2012 at 10:23 AM

This news is like a man being beaten with a baseball bat, he is now being beaten by a rubber hose…gee it feels so much better now…

“The good news is we stopped the infection, you lost a leg, but we stopped the infection…of course you still have stage 4 cancer, but we will deal with that next year”.

right2bright on March 13, 2012 at 11:08 AM

And the prospect of trying to drag that putz across the finish line when we’ll have to be making all kinds of excuses for him and trying to contrast his liberal record with Obama’s liberal record to debate a futile case for a change. How demoralizing and depressing! Come on guys, stop the madness before it’s too late!!

mozalf on March 13, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Isn’t that true of the other candidates too, though? Consider Newt. The party of ‘family values’, putting up a twice-divorced adulterer? The party of fiscal restraint (allegedly), putting up someone who wants to build a moon colony? With Santy, we get someone who voted to raise the debt ceiling, who voted to fund Planned Parenthood, who voted against Right To Work, for NCLB, for Medicare Part D. There will be a lot of excuse making in those cases, too…

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Seeing as Mitt has given up much of the debate ground to Obama, I feel Mitt is by far the weaker candidate to take on Obama.

right2bright on March 13, 2012 at 11:03 AM

.
You couldnt be further from the truth. The left is unhinged that the Mittigator did not “inject” himself into the manufactured Fluke V. the He-man woman haters club. They failed at baiting him into the contraception distraction trap that was set for the primary. Mitt will not get sucked into pointless and distracting social issue debates vs. Obie/the media-

He will not allow the distraction and keep the focus on what the election really is- a referendum on Oblamer.

Let Newton and Santo debate about religion and liberal culture.

FlaMurph on March 13, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Come on, Alabama/Mississippi! I’m still a Santorum supporter but would take Newt as my second choice any day. I want a candidate that energizes us and I can get passionate about. Romney leaves me cold. And the prospect of trying to drag that putz across the finish line when we’ll have to be making all kinds of excuses for him and trying to contrast his liberal record with Obama’s liberal record to debate a futile case for a change. How demoralizing and depressing! Come on guys, stop the madness before it’s too late!!

mozalf on March 13, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Santorum has received the endorsements of Congressman Aderholt and Governor Bentley of Alabama. Don’t lose hope yet!

KickandSwimMom on March 13, 2012 at 11:25 AM

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Santorum had a 100% pro life voting record. He is backed by every pro life group in the country.

Santorum never voted directly for Planned Parenthood. Money to PP for contraception and testing, (NOT abortion) was in an appropriations bill that Santorum voted for. Henry Hyde, the godfather of the pro life movement, also voted for the bill. Santorum also authored and fought to get the Partial Birth Abortion Ban passed.

This is another of Romney’s lies. Romney actually contributed personally to Planned Parenthood and ran as a pro choice candidate.

fight like a girl on March 13, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Sit temporibus dentium stridor et Romnius incipiunt.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on March 13, 2012 at 11:33 AM


fight like a girl on March 13, 2012 at 11:27 AM

You are exactly right. Keep up the good fight–as only a girl can! :)

KickandSwimMom on March 13, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Santorum had a 100% pro life voting record. He is backed by every pro life group in the country.

Santorum never voted directly for Planned Parenthood. Money to PP for contraception and testing, (NOT abortion) was in an appropriations bill that Santorum voted for. Henry Hyde, the godfather of the pro life movement, also voted for the bill. Santorum also authored and fought to get the Partial Birth Abortion Ban passed.

This is another of Romney’s lies. Romney actually contributed personally to Planned Parenthood and ran as a pro choice candidate.

fight like a girl on March 13, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Great…but I wasn’t talking about abortion. What I objected to was the notion that we wouldn’t be making excuses on Santy or Newt’s behalf, too…you demonstrate, of course, that indeed we will be, proving my point.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM

fight like a girl on March 13, 2012 at 11:27 AM

.
Your guy thinks states should be allowed to ban contraception. I do not have a clue why this dialogue is even in play- but do you understand that this social “concern” WILL ENCOURAGE VOTERS to vote for Ocommie regardless of how inept he is as a leader? Not to bright.

Do you understand you cannot give him this distraction during the GE ? Herr Axelfraud is working on the racism card foundation coming next for the Rs- and you ABRs are fixated on abortion and contraception.
W.T.x indeed.

FlaMurph on March 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Romney will be the nominee. He cannot even win the south which has been the base of the Republican party since Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan southern white strategy.

liberal4life on March 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You mean, of course, since the Democrat party decided to become the party of special interests rather than try to appeal to the majority of the country.

A strategy that worked well for them in getting control of Congress, but not so well in presidential elections.

But, typically, you try to make it all about race.

tom on March 13, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Was this poll taken before or after Bloomberg met with Obama?

Syzygy on March 13, 2012 at 12:16 PM

And I should take this seriously because why?

trapeze on March 13, 2012 at 9:54 AM

That’s what I say everytime somebody puts up another Perez Hilton Andrew Kaczynski clip of Romney from 20 years ago. Of course, even Ted Kaczynski understands that Romney will be the nominee.

cicerone on March 13, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Didn’t realize he was getting under your skin this bad. Sounds like vetting to me.

Granted, I don’t typically have just a lot of sympathy for a man who distances himself from Reagan because he was so extreme, then tries to convince people that Reagan was actually a moderate, unlike those nasty TruCons.

tom on March 13, 2012 at 12:16 PM

You’re clearly not basing that on head-to-head polling with Obama.

changer1701 on March 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Of course not, why let facts get in the way for some Mitt-bashing? Let’s see what right2bright bases his/her opinion on:

That polling won’t be accurate until there is a “head-to-head” taking place.
Seeing as Mitt has given up much of the debate ground to Obama, I feel Mitt is by far the weaker candidate to take on Obama.

right2bright on March 13, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Feelings FTW!

BocaJuniors on March 13, 2012 at 12:49 PM

While this poll absolutely sucks, there are others that are more accurate that show Romney in the lead. Why post about this one?

Gallup Daily tracking poll: Romney ahead by 9 points.

ABC News: Romney ahead by 4 points.

NBC News: Romney ahead by 6 points.

CABE on March 13, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Mitt Romney is the man who can and WILL defeat Barack Obama. We all know it.

That is why liberal democrats are the Obama-supporting news media are cheering on Rick Santorum right now!

A Vote for Rick Santorum in the Primary = A Vote for Barack Obama’s Reelection

bluegill on March 13, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Obama wants Romney, the Washington elite want Romney, and the press wants Romney. Isn’t that the same rotation we had last time with McCain? Remember, the one they don’t want is Newt and, apparently the strategy of spending big bucks to trash him, has worked.

Let’s face it, there aren’t many people on the planet worse than Obama so the country will be better off no matter which Republican wins, however, the only one of the bunch who will really fix what’s broken is Newt, which is why they don’t want him there.

bflat879 on March 13, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Then what was the theory behind the Dem. “operation chaos” in MI & Ohio to vote for Santorum? You really should try to form opinions based on at least some tenuous connection with reality and facts.

Dark Star on March 13, 2012 at 2:39 PM

What is really so unfortunate, is that the RepublilcRAT establishment has foisted MHIT-For-Brains, that dreaded LEMMING disease on otherwise clear-thinking TEA and conservative folks. Against the Obama Attack Machine, Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name) is as electable as my “Recycle” bin. Will somebody please tell me why NO conservative outlet of any kind has put forth ANY explanation of why the Liberals want so badly to run against RINO Romney???? Let me count the ways: (1) Axelrod and the MSM will attack relentlessly about Racism/Cultism In Mormonism; (2) The truly evil George Soros and his brain-dead OWS minions will just visciously attack Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name) as the quintescential 1%er (look for pictures of RINO Romney with a Hitler mustasche on all of the MSM news reports); and (3) The J@ck@ss-In-Chief will pat Willard on the shoulder every chance he gets saying “Thank You so much for your inspiration of RomneyCare!!!” RINO Romney will be TOAST even before his acceptance speech!?! Thank you, STUPID Party! Thank you, you weasel RepublicRAT establishment types! By ramming Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name) down our throats, you have just HANDED four more years to Obastard, and assured the destruction of America as we knew it. Thanks, STUPID Party!?!?!

Colatteral Damage on March 13, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Romney wins both Alabama and Mississippi then it is all over right????? Right???? You know who you are.

Natebo on March 13, 2012 at 5:11 PM