PPP: Southern Super Tuesday toss-up

posted at 8:40 am on March 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The critical primaries this week take place in Alabama and Mississippi tomorrow, and we can expect one last flurry of polling in both states as the pollsters make their last bets.  PPP has decided not to bet at all.  In its final surveys in the two contests, they predict a dead heat in both states:

Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich’s net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It’s a similar story in Alabama where Santorum’s at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney’s at only +13 (53/40).

Unfortunately for Gingrich and Santorum, they’re both equally popular with “very conservative” voters.  They split that vote almost equally, and that leaves room for Romney among the “somewhat conservative” and moderate likely voters polled in both states.  PPP’s multi-day survey also measured momentum over the weekend, and that’s good news for Gingrich in Mississippi, but not in Alabama:

It’s not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who’ve decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.

Gingrich really needs to win both states to remain in the race, or split them with Santorum at worst case.  If Romney wins in Alabama, he can claim to have won in every part of the country, while Gingrich can’t even claim to have won all of the Southern states that he feels is his natural base.  Perhaps that’s why Gingrich’s team has started floating a trial balloon now of adding Rick Perry on as a running mate before a potentially brokered convention:

Sources close to the Gingrich campaign say preliminary “what-if” conversations are underway that could lead to a Gingrich-Perry ticket being announced prior to the  Republican National Convention at the end of August.

Gingrich insiders hope forming a predetermined ticket with Perry will unite the evangelical, Tea Party and very conservative voters that make up the core of the GOP.

As discussions got underway, a spokesman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a statement saying, “Gov. Perry thinks Newt Gingrich is the strongest conservative to debate and defeat President Obama and truly overhaul Washington. The speculation is humbling but premature.”

Floating Perry as a running mate two days before Alabama and Mississippi could energize conservatives or turn them off.

A senior aide to Rick Santorum called it a desperate hail mary [sic] to create buzz ahead of contests in Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday.

That kind of trial balloon may have worked better before the weekend began, rather than as it ended, if Team Gingrich wanted to get a Southern boost tomorrow.

Update: There will be a lot of people in both states making up their minds as they go into the voting booth.  In Alabama, only 73% had a strong commitment to a candidate, and in Mississippi only 75%.


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If Romney wins in Alabama, he can claim to have won in every part of the country,

He already has. Try to keep up.

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Gingrich is working the old con game like a pro. Moon bases in FL to pander to the aerospace industry. Now it’s Perry to pander to the Southern vote. America deserves better than a con artist like Newt.

NickDeringer on March 12, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Love Perry, don’t think this would be a good move for him

cmsinaz on March 12, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Gingrich – Perry? Just wow. That dog may hunt in some places in the South but has fleas, ticks and rabies in the rest of the country.

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 8:51 AM

The critical primaries this week take place in Alabama and Mississippi tomorrow

There’s a sentence you don’t see every day!

The reality is that both states are apt to go to whoever is the GOP nominee.

Happy Nomad on March 12, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Ann Romney is spending today in Alabama with three significant events.

Alabama and Mississippi: a vote for Gingrich or Santorum is a vote for Obama.

When the GOP nominates a member of Congress (Goldwater, Dole, McCain), they LOSE. When the GOP nominates governors (Reagan, Bush 43) or vice presidents (Nixon, Bush 41), they WIN. Why? Because members of Congress have no executive experience and, worse, they have the burden of a congressional voting record that the Dems and the MSM dissect and distort. We saw this on display with Santo at the last debate.

The last GOP nominee elected from Congress was Warren Harding in 1920.

Vote ROMNEY.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 8:51 AM

I never thought I’d live to see the day when Rick Perry was used like a woman.

Mr. Arkadin on March 12, 2012 at 8:52 AM

So basically Newt is splitting the conservative anti-Romney vote with Santorum which all but guarantees Mittens will be the nominee. Why just spare us the unnecessary drama, drop out, endorse Romney, and let’s get on with the general election already?

Doughboy on March 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

This overwhelming push to cram Romney down our throats is breath-taking. The republican establishment just can’t stand having us little people standing up for ourselves. Even Fox News seems thrown off message because Rick Santorum keeps on going. I like a fighter as a candidate instead of a rich bully. The fact that prolonging the primary has given us time to investigate the records of each and the more we find out about Romney – I have serious concerns about the religious mandates he initiated in Romney care and they’re trying to hide – there are plenty of questions that still need to be addressed. That’s why the momentum keeps changing and against Romney. He should definitely not be the face of the republican party at such a crucial time for change.

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Not Perry…..good Lord no…

thedevilinside on March 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

I find it mind-boggling that anyone takes Gingrich or Santorum seriously as presidential candidates. I have never been a Romney fan, but c’mon…

DRayRaven on March 12, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Newt should have told everybody he was going to pick Rick Santorum as his Vice President…despite any protestations from Santy. (:>)

KOOLAID2 on March 12, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Why just spare us the unnecessary drama, drop out, endorse Romney, and let’s get on with the general election already?

Doughboy on March 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Because Newt is a petty bitter man with delusions of greatness. He really does think that America is going to wake up some Tuesday and decide that he should be President.

Happy Nomad on March 12, 2012 at 8:56 AM

…a vote for Gingrich or Santorum is a vote for Obama.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Nonsense. A vote for Gingrich is a vote for Gingrich. A vote for Santorum is a vote for Santorum. And, a vote for Paul is a vote for Paul.

This is a primary. Vote your conscience. When Romney supporters resort to threats as if voting for anyone else is a vote for Obama, well, it just reeks of desperation.

Fallon on March 12, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Love Perry, don’t think this would be a good move for him

cmsinaz on March 12, 2012 at 8:47 AM

I have the sinking feeling that we are looking at an Obama second term.

Dr Evil on March 12, 2012 at 8:58 AM

I will vote for whom I want to, and no DKos rejects are going to threaten me into doing otherwise.

kingsjester on March 12, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Time for Texas to secede Rick! Let’s do this!

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 8:59 AM

The republican establishment just can’t stand having us little people standing up for ourselves.

I’m sorry, but people like you trying to force a brokered convention so that no voters vote count somehow equates to standing up for yourselves? Really? No its not. You’re not happy so you’re going to throw your 5 year old temper tantrum and try to disenfranchise the million more people that have voted for Romney than your guy.

I have serious concerns about the religious mandates he initiated in Romney care and they’re trying to hide

You mean how the Catholic church just had to follow, what the Catholic church had already followed? yeah, thats right, they’re not hiding jack. People just keep making stuff up about it. All Romney did was re-inforce previous catholic hospital doctrine.

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Gingrich is working the old con game like a pro. Moon bases in FL to pander to the aerospace industry. Now it’s Perry to pander to the Southern vote. America deserves better than a con artist like Newt.

NickDeringer on March 12, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Right because Romney isn’t a politician and he’s not pandering to southerners. Mitt Romney “I like cheesy grits y’all” LOL! Newt’s just a better campaigner.

Dr Evil on March 12, 2012 at 9:00 AM

his overwhelming push to cram Romney down our throats is breath-taking.
mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

They’re all against you… and they took your strawberries too.

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Newt should have told everybody he was going to pick Rick Santorum as his Vice President…despite any protestations from Santy. (:>)

KOOLAID2

Would that be the “Sinner and Saint” ticket? Does have a nice ring to it.

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Question: why do very conservative voters like Santorum? He’s not very conservative…he’s a lib flopper to make mittens proud.

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Right because Romney isn’t a politician and he’s not pandering to southerners. Mitt Romney “I like cheesy grits y’all” LOL!

Dr Evil on March 12, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Southerners don’t respond well to that kind of pandering even though in its larger context, it didn’t come off as quite so blatent.

Happy Nomad on March 12, 2012 at 9:04 AM

I knew a rock once that said Perry was racist so that ship has sailed.

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Since when do two candidates, neither of whom held any broad appeal for the nation as a Presidential candidate, somehow TOGETHER make a strong ticket? Gingrich with Perry is STILL Gingrich, and Perry playing second fiddle to Gingrich in the VP slot of a Gingrich Presidential ticket is Perry without the charm.

I note that Santorum is running around ‘predicting’ that the GOP delegates at the convention would nominate him over Romney. I can’t help wondering WHERE he bought that incredibly flawed crystal ball. I think its merely reflecting his own overwhelming, and still growing, desperation. His appeal has always been limited and now there is evidence that he cannot appeal to the broader base. Look at the map of states he’s won that have already voted in the primary. Its important to be able to recognize one’s own limitation. Santorum maximized his potential as a Senator and in parlaying that success into financial prosperity in becoming a millionaire, and apparently, the people whom he represented as Senator felt that he had over reached in that capacity since they refused to reelect him.

thatsafactjack on March 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM

In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum…

With Santorum needing to win 65% of the remaining delegates and Gingrich needing to win 70%, this really doesn’t sound like a toss-up to me. Sounds more like another Romney win that will be spun as another Romney loss.

rogaineguy on March 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Right because Romney isn’t a politician and he’s not pandering to southerners. Mitt Romney “I like cheesy grits y’all” LOL! Newt’s just a better campaigner.

Dr Evil

I love it. Romney makes fun of himself, but hotgas plays it off as pandering and the mindless drones dutifully fan inline.
Here is the actual quote. “He’s now turning me into an, I don’t know, an unofficial Southerner,” Romney said in front of several giant oil-drilling rig platforms sitting at the port. “I’m learning to say ‘y’all.’ I like grits. Things are, strange things, are happening to me.”. He is mocking his lack of southern-ness.

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Question: why do very conservative voters like Santorum? He’s not very conservative…he’s a lib flopper to make mittens proud.

DHChron

He is the uber social conservative, and not Romney. So now even when he says things he never followed threw on in Congress, he’s a saint.

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:07 AM

What I find pathetic and ironic is how the RNC is trying to frame Romney as Ronald Reagan in this primary. Romney is more aligned with GHW Bush in the 1980 republican primaries being the country club candidate against the then trashed, low delegates, and unelectable by the RNC, conservative Reagan who is Rick Santorum for me this go around. And we saw how that worked out for President Reagan against a lousy democrat president.

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 9:08 AM

And one more thing, dang it. Isn’t Newton Leroy Gingrich the guy who was taunting Romney as the guy who lost to the guy who lost to Obama? And now he wants to form a ticket with whom?

rogaineguy on March 12, 2012 at 9:09 AM

You know if we don’t have time to let every primary in the country vote without somebody’s supporters screaming, “EVERYONE DROP OUT AND KISS THE FEET OF THE HOLY FRONTRUNNER,” maybe we don’t have time for a primary process at all and should just instead elect a cabal of Republican moneymen to tell us who our nominee will be.

adamsweb on March 12, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:06 AM

senses of humor are a hard thing to grasp for many people, especially mittens sort of dry wit.

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Perry as VP? Yeah, let’s have the only VP that ol’ Joe Biden can out-debate in the prime of his senility.

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 9:10 AM

This is a primary. Vote your conscience. When Romney supporters resort to threats as if voting for anyone else is a vote for Obama, well, it just reeks of desperation.

Fallon on March 12, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Except, without the desperation, because Romney’s the only candidate that can reasonably expect to gather the necessary delegates. Even after Santorum’s much hyped Kansas win, he still fell further behind Romney in the delegate race.

In any other year, this race would pretty much be winding down by now, but it’s not because Romney Derangement Syndrome is carrying it past where it should have already been all for one and one for all.

Which, out of reality, helps Obama. The longer the eventual nominee has to keep sinking resources into securing delegates, the longer Obama goes without a direct challenger.

Red Cloud on March 12, 2012 at 9:10 AM

They’re all against you… and they took your strawberries too.

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I know- “breathtaking”?

BettyRuth on March 12, 2012 at 9:11 AM

You know if we don’t have time to let every primary in the country vote without somebody’s supporters screaming, “EVERYONE DROP OUT AND KISS THE FEET OF THE HOLY FRONTRUNNER,” maybe we don’t have time for a primary process at all and should just instead elect a cabal of Republican moneymen to tell us who our nominee will be.

adamsweb on March 12, 2012 at 9:10 AM

well said!

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Sounds more like another Romney win that will be spun as another Romney loss.

rogaineguy on March 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM

This has become a joke in my house. Almost every day someone says, “it’s all over for Romney” and everyone laughs. But, hey, let the beclowning continue. Tomorrow will be no different.

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 9:13 AM

On the other hand, the weaker the Not Romneys make the nominee ahead of the general election, the more the likelihood that he’ll lose to Obama, and the more the likelihood of hearing “I told you sos” from the Not Romneys.

Self-fulfilling prophecies, essentially.

Red Cloud on March 12, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I’d be shocked if Romney won either and don’t expect him to, but if he does Gingrich ought to be toast.I doubt the idea of a Gingrich-Perry ticket changes anything.

But the real story here, imo, is Santy’s relative weakness. By now, regardless of Newt’s presence, conservatives should’ve settled on him as the NotRomney. For all this talk about how the base isn’t sold on Romney, what about the fact that Santorum has won a lot more states yet can’t convince people he’s the main rival. That’s more telling than anything here.

changer1701 on March 12, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Gotta love these polls. The majority polled reported that they don’t believe in evolution, and roughly 20% in each poll said they think interracial marriage should be illegal.

Syzygy on March 12, 2012 at 9:15 AM

You know if we don’t have time to let every primary in the country vote without somebody’s supporters screaming, “EVERYONE DROP OUT AND KISS THE FEET OF THE HOLY FRONTRUNNER,” maybe we don’t have time for a primary process at all and should just instead elect a cabal of Republican moneymen to tell us who our nominee will be.

adamsweb

last I checked, thats exactly what happens when you have a brokered convention. Yet the ones pushing for a brokered convention are the ones who keep making this complaint. Its amazing.

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I know- “breathtaking”?

BettyRuth on March 12, 2012 at 9:11 AM

A “breathtaking” tin-foil hat which isn’t about to win any election.

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM

This has become a joke in my house. Almost every day someone says, “it’s all over for Romney” and everyone laughs. But, hey, let the beclowning continue. Tomorrow will be no different.

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Tonight, at dinner, I’m starting that joke with my family. And I won’t be giving you any credit. Sorry.

rogaineguy on March 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM

“This is a primary. Vote your conscience.”

Hello, President-for-life Obama.

Tom Servo on March 12, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I can’t wait until Santz takes his new found fame and money and goes home – then maybe this site can start reporting with a semblance of honesty again.

oh! and Perry’s a rock lovin’ racist!

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Gotta love these polls. The majority polled reported that they don’t believe in evolution, and roughly 20% in each poll said they think interracial marriage should be illegal.

Syzygy on March 12, 2012 at 9:15 AM

One look at the local folks can shatter one’s belief in evolution. As for interracial marriages, who needs ‘em when one find such nice dates outside one’s species.

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Tonight, at dinner, I’m starting that joke with my family. And I won’t be giving you any credit. Sorry.

rogaineguy on March 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Who needs credit for something that’s been “profoundly” idiodic since Florida, Michigan, Ohio…

rhombus on March 12, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Has anyone heard that Putin received 107% of the vote in Chechnya – a country he attacked twice?

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:21 AM

The fact that it’s a DEAD HEAT ought to tell you something about the weakness of Santorum in southerns states, and of Gingrich in general. If Romney is in a dead heat in southern states it’s because people are choosing him as the nominee and saying they are ready to get on with the general. Romney will win Illinois–the hallowed “heartland” vote–and even if he comes in a close 2nd in Alabama and Mississippi, he’s still gaining delegates because they are proportional. Santo can’t win 60% of all remaining delegates, and he’s beginning to look like the skunk at the garden party.

Santorum Not So Strong with Pennsylvania Folks:

“I guess you could say there’s a disconnect between Rick Santorum’s claim to be a small-government fiscal conservative and the Pittsburgh tunnel project he pushed for as a U.S. senator.”

“Santorum makes a big deal out of earmarks and he participated in one of the biggest of all time, twice as big as ‘the bridge to nowhere’ in Alaska, which cost taxpayers $240 million and was never built.”

[

When] Mr. Santorum first ran for Congress in 1990, he “tried out a speech with all of us in Young Republicans” and “didn’t mention the pro-life issue.”

“Afterward, I asked him where he stood, and he said, ‘I haven’t made up my mind. I don’t have an answer right now.’


Typically, whichever interest helped support his political career, that’s the one he supported.”

“Santorum’s political agenda, with little or no regard to the consequences to the taxpayers, community economic benefit or safety of the bridges, roads or other infrastructure. On a local level, the senator’s decisions were very hurtful; on a national level, they would be calamitous.”

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/11/santorum-not-so-strong-with-pennsylvania-folks/

mountainaires on March 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Willard has said that his favorite book is “Battlefield Earth” by Scientology founder, L. Ron Hubbard.

Not The Bible, not War and Peace, not anything well known to normal people. To cult members–maybe.

In other words, few people really know what things are floating around inside Willard’s head.

You say he’s just a normal big business executive. I can see that. Everytime I see him, I get the impression that he’s thinking, “You’re fired!”

Dump Willard.
Before he dumps you.

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Gingrich must drop out soon, unless he and his supporters want Romney to be the nominee.

Pork-Chop on March 12, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Gingrich is working the old con game like a pro. Moon bases in FL to pander to the aerospace industry. Now it’s Perry to pander to the Southern vote

And it’s so transparent. He constantly promises things that he can’t deliver – $2.50 gas, an end to stem cell research, the moon base, etc. It’s insulting to the voters that he thinks they are so gullible.

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Well, time to find another blog for today. The Romney shills are already out in force on HotAir spamming every damn thread. Here’s a clue Mitt-Wits–we don’t like Romney, or you for that matter. You can scream, demean, moan and spam all you like, but it will not affect our vote. Romney may get the nomination through methodically accumulating delegates like Scrooge counting his money, but he will not have the willingness or enthusiasm of grassroots people to volunteer or donate to his cause. That’s a fact.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Willard has said that his favorite book is “Battlefield Earth” by Scientology founder, L. Ron Hubbard.

Not The Bible, not War and Peace, not anything well known to normal people. To cult members–maybe.

Emperor Norton

Except he said his favorite BOOK was the Bible. His favorite NOVEL was battlefield earth.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2007/05/mitt_romneys_hidden_geek.html

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Gingrich Santz must drop out soon, unless he and his supporters want Romney to be the nominee.

Pork-Chop on March 12, 2012 at 9:24 AM

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:29 AM

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 9:27 AM

+1,000,000

kingsjester on March 12, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Has anyone heard that Putin received 107% of the vote in Chechnya – a country he attacked twice?

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Newsflash: Chechnya is not a country. It’s a tiny piece of land populated by people about as friendly and intelligent as those roaming Gaza Strip. The amount of money Russia poured into it could see a star expedition all the way to another galaxy, and most of it ended up in the pockets of people who count the vote. When you’re paid so generously you tend to over-zeal it.

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I checked up on this after reading your comment, and he did say that he liked the book as a work of science fiction, but very specifically renounced Hubbard’s religion. In the same interview, he said his favorite book was The Bible.

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Has anyone heard that Putin received 107% of the vote in Chechnya – a country he attacked twice?

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:21 AM

…he used JugEars campaign staff!

KOOLAID2 on March 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

On the other hand, the weaker the Not Romneys make the nominee ahead of the general election, the more the likelihood that he’ll lose to Obama, and the more the likelihood of hearing “I told you sos” from the Not Romneys.

Self-fulfilling prophecies, essentially.

Red Cloud on March 12, 2012 at 9:13 AM

The not-Romneys are not making the eventual nominee look weak ahead of the general election. They (he, actually) are making the Republican Party look ridiculous before the general election. And because most people don’t pay close attention to politics, and because most people think in broad, general catagories, the nominee, because he is a Republican, looks weak.

The contraception issue, which could only have arisen with Santorum becoming a viable primary candidate, and which the Obama forces have exploited brilliantly, may cost us this election. Santorum needs to drop out, not because he is splitting the conservative vote and keeping Romney afloat, but because he is a toxin that is poisoning the Republican Party. Gingrich, or the people backing him, knows this. The object is to get Santorum out of the picture before he costs us the election, because Romney can’t wash off the stink. Gingrich is not the ego driven lunatic here, Santorum is. I am as surprised as anyone to say this, but Gingrich is actually putting party ahead of self. If Santorum bailed tomorrow, Gingrich would soon follow.

Gingrich will have a role to play in the general, not as a simple reward, but because he has something to offer, and can be affective. Santorum, no, and we won’t be seeing much of him after the primary.

Mr. Arkadin on March 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Except he said his favorite BOOK was the Bible. His favorite NOVEL was battlefield earth.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2007/05/mitt_romneys_hidden_geek.html

Zaggs on March 12, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Don’t go confusing the rabid ABR crowd with facts and such…you’ll give them a headache.

changer1701 on March 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Me and gophergirl are holding out for Perry coming out of a brokered convention. But what do I know – I tabbed Palin as the GOP VP six months before McLame picked her.

And Perry can’t debate all that well but he sure can campaign.

platypus on March 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

His favorite NOVEL was battlefield earth

No candidate for public office should make a statement as cringeworthy as that, even if the book is fiction. As I said, there’s no telling what’s spinning between Willard’s ears.

his favorite BOOK was the Bible.

No, you mean The Book of Mormon. That’s also fiction.

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Fine, the skeptics want a positive rationale for supporting Romney.

1. Money – only candidate who can match Obama dollar-for-dollar

2. Organization

3. Ground game and infratructure in 50 states

4. crossover appeal to indies, discerning Dems: perceived as safe alternative to Obama, “not a bomb thrower”

5. will play on Blue turf, put Obama on defense, draining every Obama dollar to compete in states like CA, NY, NJ, PA, MI, CT – this is known as electoral chess

6. ability to reconnect GOP with suburban voters – see Michael Barone column today – and NO gender gap like prior GOP candidates

7. extremely high support from seniors — who vote in disproportionate numbers

8. Dems and unions terrified of Romney, which is why they are pouring in money to defeat him now

9. strong debater — to the extent that debates will matter much

10. ability to unify all segments of the GOP coalition

11. will not turn off Ron Paul supporters – Romney is the only candidate who can keep them in camp

12. has no burden of a congressional voting record that will be dissected and distorted (“I was for it before I was against” — ala Santorum in last debate).

Governors and members of Congress know something about precinct politics. They are uniformly supporting Romney, because they understand he is the only standing candidate who can defeat Obama.

Removing ANY incumbent president is serious, difficult and expensive business. Only Romney has the organization and depth to accomplish this. Axelrod would destroy Newt or Santorum in 72 hours; would be like sending in a boy to do a man’s job.

In the final analysis, in the general election it will be much easier to get conservatives to vote for Romney than independents for Newt or Santo.

This is about WINNING. The nation cannot afford 4 more years of Obama, and we cannot take a chance with a long-shot candidate.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Gingrich insiders hope forming a predetermined ticket with Perry will unite the evangelical, Tea Party and very conservative voters that make up the core of the GOP.

Rick “re-invade Iraq!” Perry?

Three things this will accomplish for self-proclaimed “Rockefeller Republican” Newt:

1) They’ll get the illegal alien vote.

2) They’ll get the votes of the recipients of Perry crony-capitalism cash.

Uh…uh…I forgot the third.

itsnotaboutme on March 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Newsflash: Chechnya is not a country. It’s a tiny piece of land populated by people about as friendly and intelligent as those roaming Gaza Strip. The amount of money Russia poured into it could see a star expedition all the way to another galaxy, and most of it ended up in the pockets of people who count the vote. When you’re paid so generously you tend to over-zeal it.

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Newsflash – Chechnya won it’s independence in the first war with Russia and became the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. Putin then re-established Russian federal control in the second war.

Nesflash – newflashes are annoying, knock that crap out

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Don’t go confusing the rabid ABR crowd with facts
changer1701 on March 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

So is Zaggs your sockpuppet, or are you Zaggs’ sock puppet?

How come in every thread there’s always a tag team of Willard drones who pile on in any dispute? Like you can’t let something go without making it two or three against one.

You aspire to be bullies, apparently, which is consistent with the campaign tacticts of the rich bully himself, Willard. Or maybe it’s worse–like the Willard Politburo cannot tolerate any dissent whatsoever.

Willard is creepy. His supporters, more so.

Dump Willard.
Before he dumps you.

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:39 AM

…he used JugEars campaign staff!

KOOLAID2 on March 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

yup :) Acorn went Soviet

hey Archivarix – I know the Soviet Union doesn’t exist! no need for a newsflash!

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Yeah, I love the logic of how when Romney loses, and he will, it will be the fault (again) of conservatives. It’s going to be bad enough holding my nose for that putz if I have to, but trying to convince anyone else: democrats or independents to vote for him when he’s not all that different from Obama – and using the “how horrible Obama’s policies are especially Obamacare” argument isn’t all that convincing with Romney in the mix – it will take a miracle. We need a total contrast with Obama and a fighter. Or else why would the American electorate trust us and give us a republican dominated Senate, House, AND White House unless we give them a reason. An Obama-lite ain’t gonna cut it.

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Ann Romney is spending today in Alabama with three significant events.

Alabama and Mississippi: a vote for Gingrich or Santorum is a vote for Obama.

When the GOP nominates a member of Congress (Goldwater, Dole, McCain), they LOSE. When the GOP nominates governors (Reagan, Bush 43) or vice presidents (Nixon, Bush 41), they WIN. Why? Because members of Congress have no executive experience and, worse, they have the burden of a congressional voting record that the Dems and the MSM dissect and distort. We saw this on display with Santo at the last debate.

The last GOP nominee elected from Congress was Warren Harding in 1920.

Vote ROMNEY.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Excellent point. Go Mitt and Ann!

cicerone on March 12, 2012 at 9:41 AM

How accurate has PPP been as a polling organization so far in this primary season? The non-Romney’s usually seem to poll more strongly in it than in polls like Rasmussen.

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 9:44 AM

trying to convince anyone else: democrats or independents to vote for [Romney] … will take a miracle.

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 9:40 AM

But you think Democrats and indies are going to vote for whom? Santorum? Gingrich? I think not.

Syzygy on March 12, 2012 at 9:46 AM

The last GOP nominee elected from Congress was Warren Harding in 1920

Willard was a Governor. Other Republican Governors nominated for President and beaten soundly were:

Tom Dewey (1948 and 1944)
Alf Landon (1936)
Charles Evans Hughes (1916)

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:50 AM

mozalf, Mitt Romney, with all his material advantages, is not spending 6 years of his life in seedy Holiday Inns to roll over for Obama or anyone else this fall. Romney is determined to be elected president.

McCain just wanted to be NOMINATED for president. He had a job in the Senate to return to, a job he loves.

Romney becomes president, or he becomes an also-ran in the history books. Romney is not going to allow that to happen, and by June you will be impressed with the scope and scale of the coalition that Romney has assembled for the general election.

Romney has articulated, and will continue to articulate, a solid conservative agenda. Obama’s record will be the glue that drives millions of center-right people to the polls to support all GOP candidates, from president to dogcatcher.

Both Obama and Romney will have the 40% of the electorate with them. The fight is over the remaining 20%. Now, which GOP candidate can most easily capture tha 20%? It ain’t Newt and it ain’t Santorum.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:52 AM

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Don’t bother, Matt. No-one will read it, and in about five minutes someone like KickandSwimMom will be demanding that Mittbots post valid reasons for supporting Romney, which we supposedly never do even though we do it all the time, because we are either Mormons, cultists, Mormon-cultists, or so focused on electability that we can’t see what a commie abortionist Christ-hater Romney really is.

Here’s a clue Mitt-Wits–we don’t like Romney, or you for that matter.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Here’s a clue, TruCon martyr, we don’t care what you think. You can take your ball and go home anytime you like. I’ll tell you one thing, you had better pray every day that Romney loses in the general. Because if he wins, the base that you so zealously claim to represent will be finished as an effective force in politics. But then, your irrational hysteria tells me that some part of you already understands this.

Mr. Arkadin on March 12, 2012 at 9:52 AM

How come in every thread there’s always a tag team of Willard drones who pile on in any dispute? Like you can’t let something go without making it two or three against one.

You aspire to be bullies, apparently, which is consistent with the campaign tacticts of the rich bully himself, Willard. Or maybe it’s worse–like the Willard Politburo cannot tolerate any dissent whatsoever.

Willard is creepy. His supporters, more so.

Dump Willard.
Before he dumps you.

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Yeah, good thing there aren’t Santy or Newt supporters who don’t pile on with their ABR schtick in every thread. You wouldn’t know anything about that, would you?

And what I find increasingly creepy is your obsession with Romney…his wealth, his first name, and his faith. I don’t know whether it’s envy or just incoherent hate, but you need help. Pronto.

changer1701 on March 12, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Willard has said that his favorite book is “Battlefield Earth” by Scientology founder, L. Ron Hubbard.

Not The Bible, not War and Peace, not anything well known to normal people. To cult members–maybe.

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:23 AM

More falsehoods from the ABRtards.

Gunlock Bill on March 12, 2012 at 9:54 AM

OK, Emporer, in the last 60 years, since 1952, how many governors has the GOP nominated that lost the presidency?

The answer is NONE, whereas EVERY GOP senator nominated was a LOSER.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:55 AM

You aspire to be bullies, apparently, which is consistent with the campaign tacticts of the rich bully himself, Willard. Or maybe it’s worse–like the Willard Politburo cannot tolerate any dissent whatsoever.

Emperor Norton on March 12, 2012 at 9:39 AM

So, leet me get this straight….I take you original comment seriously, and google it, because I’m genuinely curious to see if it’s true.

I discover that, in fact, it’s a distorted statement and not true as written in your comment. Apparently, a couple of others fact-check you and comment on same.

And, according to you, fact-checking constitutes Soviet style bullying? Sheesh.

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Its funny watching the last dying gasps of team sweater vest and team moon base….

tpw on March 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

This is the trouble with primaries – everyone says things they regret.

We will ALL need each other later.

The Romney supporters, myself included, will be ABO; we just believe we have the best and most-electable nominee and are impatient to get on to the general election. Every day that passes with this unresolved is a day closer to Obama’s reelection.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

You all Perry haters are so threaten by even mentioning his name, just like Obama camp! He was the only candidate whom Obama/Dems were afraid of! And they succeeded in getting rid of him; off course with the help of stupid Republicans like you, Perry haters.

nancysabet on March 12, 2012 at 10:00 AM

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Good analysis; some points are more valid than others, though.

1) Nobody can match Obama money-wise. There will be a powerful flow of untraceable foreign money, funneled through certain corporations.

2&3)Romney cannot possibly match Obama’s ACORN-based ground team, but of the current GOP slate, he’s certainly the best one to try.

4) Crossover to indies comes at expense of unexcited base. You still need the rural vote to carry some states. Maybe Mitt can address it with the VP pick.

5) No Republican – not even Mike Castle or Arlen Specter – can possibly carry CA or NY. As for staying competitive in NH, NJ, PA, and CT, I believe it to be Mitt’s strongest selling point.

6) Suburban voters will come out for any candidate who puts economy first. They are hurt most by Obama’s policies. It’s not Mitt’s strength; it’s Santorum’s weakness.

7) Don’t count on seniors. MediScare will work its magic come October.

8) Santorum is the union guy, that’s one more reason to abhor him, but anti-union-wise I’d rather see Gingrich or Paul than Romney on the top of the ticket.

9) Romney is a so-so debater but, as folks have correctly pointed out many times here, debates won’t matter as much as we expect. They are scripted, hostilely moderated, and the MSM will say Obama won even if all he did was standing and smiling.

10) Romney, unify? Santorum set the Bible-thumping crowd on fire – for all the wrong reason, of course, but still he admittedly did. They won’t settle for anything short of a televangelist now.

11) Yes, yes, and yes! Those saying that 3-4% of nationwide vote who will gladly do GOTV legwork and crawl through fire and broken glass to vote (and who will otherwise likely vote for the other side with equal enthusiasm) don’t matter should have their water supply examined for contaminants.

12) Romney’s legacy is his Massachusetts term. The conservatives tend to see the glass half empty, but how many governors had the balls to veto legislation knowing that the veto will be overridden?

There is also one positive for Romney that people don’t speak much of: he has Wall Street’s back. Obama lost them when he embraced the rampaging OWS crowd. Yes, many believe that Wall Street *is* the problem, but their support and money means worlds for down-the-line tickets. That’s why Romney is the best chance of maintaining control of the House and taking over the Senate. It used to matter, too.

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 10:01 AM

You all Perry haters are so threaten by even mentioning his name, just like Obama camp! He was the only candidate whom Obama/Dems were afraid of! And they succeeded in getting rid of him; off course with the help of stupid Republicans like you, Perry haters.

nancysabet on March 12, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Hey gophergirl! It looks like there’s three of us. Growth is good. :)

platypus on March 12, 2012 at 10:02 AM

You all Perry haters are so threaten by even mentioning his name, just like Obama camp! He was the only candidate whom Obama/Dems were afraid of! And they succeeded in getting rid of him; off course with the help of stupid Republicans like you, Perry haters.

nancysabet on March 12, 2012 at 10:00 AM

The way I remember it was with the help of a racist rock. Darned racist rocks!

Perry was my guy too :(

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I’ll tell you one thing, you had better pray every day that Romney loses in the general. Because if he wins, the base that you so zealously claim to represent will be finished as an effective force in politics. But then, your irrational hysteria tells me that some part of you already understands this.

Mr. Arkadin on March 12, 2012 at 9:52 AM

And then you woke up. Trust me, your RINO days are numbered. Once conservatives go their own way, the GOP will fall. It began in 2010 and will continue until the swamp is drained.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I’m a Mitt supporter. I’d be shocked if he won either Alabama or Miss. and I don’t think he will win either one.

He will get an equal share of delegates with gingrich and santorum because of the apportionment rules however.

gerrym51 on March 12, 2012 at 10:06 AM

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Interesting commentary, both. Thanks.

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Newsflash – Chechnya won it’s independence in the first war with Russia and became the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. Putin then re-established Russian federal control in the second war.

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I’m Russian born, and my wife is Russian. We keep pretty close track of what transpires there. The Republic of Ichkerya was never a sovereign body with any shred of international recognition because it’s not what they fought for. All they ever wanted is to control the oil pipe, and do their own budgeting. Guess why?

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Once conservatives go their own way, the GOP will fall. It began in 2010 and will continue until the swamp is drained.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:05 AM

And the TrueCon™ Purity award of the day goes to……

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 10:07 AM

This is the trouble with primaries – everyone says things they regret.

We will ALL need each other later.

The Romney supporters, myself included, will be ABO; we just believe we have the best and most-electable nominee and are impatient to get on to the general election. Every day that passes with this unresolved is a day closer to Obama’s reelection.

matthew8787 on March 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Baloney!! Primaries are to vet the candidates which will can ultimately make them stronger. Your rush to get to the general is misguided. It’s 8 months away. Let this process take a little more time. Perhaps Romney will learn how a little bit about conservatism in the process. The other candidates (excluding Paul) staying in help push him to the right. Obama can’t launch his negative campaign monster while the nomination is still not finalized.

Bitter Clinger on March 12, 2012 at 10:11 AM

But you think Democrats and indies are going to vote for whom? Santorum? Gingrich? I think not.

Syzygy on March 12, 2012 at 9:46 AM

They will vote for either because they both offer stark contrasts to the democrat ticket. I like Santorum the best, but Gingrich also has a lot to offer in contrast to Obama. The democrats are going to spook the electorate with all the talk of a 1 party rule including the White House. Unless we give them a different option, why would they go with a republican-lite who has more similarities than differences, and is already trying to appease democrats like he did in the past when they have that in the White House now?

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 10:12 AM

And the TrueCon™ Purity award of the day goes to……

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Why, thank you. I sincerely take that as a compliment–much better than being a squishy RINO.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Interested to see who takes Alabama. Was considering going to school there before realizing I don’t know much about it.

antisense on March 12, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I’m Russian born, and my wife is Russian. We keep pretty close track of what transpires there. The Republic of Ichkerya was never a sovereign body with any shred of international recognition because it’s not what they fought for. All they ever wanted is to control the oil pipe, and do their own budgeting. Guess why?

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Russian born, Israeli citizen – you’re a world traveler aren’t you :) I can assure you Texas is better than both.

I didn’t claim they had a shred of international recognition, I claimed they gained independence and they did.

I’m interested though of course. Educate me world traveler :)

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 10:13 AM

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:12 AM

You’re welcome :) Btw, are you actually a swim mom?

Priscilla on March 12, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Archivarix on March 12, 2012 at 10:07 AM

and thanks for omitting the “newsflash” – holy sh!t is that ever annoying :)

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 10:15 AM

They will vote for either because they both offer stark contrasts to the democrat ticket. I like Santorum the best, but Gingrich also has a lot to offer in contrast to Obama. The democrats are going to spook the electorate with all the talk of a 1 party rule including the White House. Unless we give them a different option, why would they go with a republican-lite who has more similarities than differences, and is already trying to appease democrats like he did in the past when they have that in the White House now?

mozalf on March 12, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Excellent points.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:16 AM

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I was ranked 9th in the state of PA – but that was spring board diving :)

DHChron on March 12, 2012 at 10:16 AM

And then you woke up. Trust me, your RINO days are numbered. Once conservatives go their own way, the GOP will fall. It began in 2010 and will continue until the swamp is drained.

KickandSwimMom on March 12, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Spoken like a true tea partier. And I agree – this is a hill worth dying on.

platypus on March 12, 2012 at 10:17 AM

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