PPP: Southern Super Tuesday toss-up
posted at 8:40 am on March 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
The critical primaries this week take place in Alabama and Mississippi tomorrow, and we can expect one last flurry of polling in both states as the pollsters make their last bets. PPP has decided not to bet at all. In its final surveys in the two contests, they predict a dead heat in both states:
Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich’s net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It’s a similar story in Alabama where Santorum’s at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney’s at only +13 (53/40).
Unfortunately for Gingrich and Santorum, they’re both equally popular with “very conservative” voters. They split that vote almost equally, and that leaves room for Romney among the “somewhat conservative” and moderate likely voters polled in both states. PPP’s multi-day survey also measured momentum over the weekend, and that’s good news for Gingrich in Mississippi, but not in Alabama:
It’s not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who’ve decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.
Gingrich really needs to win both states to remain in the race, or split them with Santorum at worst case. If Romney wins in Alabama, he can claim to have won in every part of the country, while Gingrich can’t even claim to have won all of the Southern states that he feels is his natural base. Perhaps that’s why Gingrich’s team has started floating a trial balloon now of adding Rick Perry on as a running mate before a potentially brokered convention:
Sources close to the Gingrich campaign say preliminary “what-if” conversations are underway that could lead to a Gingrich-Perry ticket being announced prior to the Republican National Convention at the end of August.
Gingrich insiders hope forming a predetermined ticket with Perry will unite the evangelical, Tea Party and very conservative voters that make up the core of the GOP.
As discussions got underway, a spokesman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a statement saying, “Gov. Perry thinks Newt Gingrich is the strongest conservative to debate and defeat President Obama and truly overhaul Washington. The speculation is humbling but premature.”
Floating Perry as a running mate two days before Alabama and Mississippi could energize conservatives or turn them off.
A senior aide to Rick Santorum called it a desperate hail mary [sic] to create buzz ahead of contests in Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday.
That kind of trial balloon may have worked better before the weekend began, rather than as it ended, if Team Gingrich wanted to get a Southern boost tomorrow.
Update: There will be a lot of people in both states making up their minds as they go into the voting booth. In Alabama, only 73% had a strong commitment to a candidate, and in Mississippi only 75%.
Related Posts:
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2
There is also an open offer from my home state of Maine by the current Governor.
mouell on April 14, 2013 at 9:24 AM
GTR? No, I don’t drive one. People who do are speaking. Like, every time I turn around, there is one for sale. Check your mom’s purse, you can get one. It is a kid’s car and kid’s tire of their toys and responsibilities fast.
So with you it is performance then depreciation then attacks on buyers of items then a whack at a whole section of the USA. Real problems in English and logic, huh?
Back to the GTR, How about depreciation, sport?
http://www.cargurus.com/
IlikedAUH2O on April 14, 2013 at 10:07 AM
If they can wade through your failed grammar, about a dozen people on both coasts are laughing about those comments.
Lexus even calls itself 1)the new “Buick”, 2) the poor person’s Mercedes, 3) the car for people who want to be No.1 — not to say they are there.
Nothing wrong with that but you really should read more.
Hollywood people like the Anger Management cast (and they are far from alone) want to look respectable in Mercedes, huh?
Aside from your automotive expertise and logic that leaks like a bucket without a bottom, Your point is really lost. You see, none of this is remotely related to gun manufacturing or your attacks on the South, This is a thread, son, just to let you know.
IlikedAUH2O on April 14, 2013 at 10:22 AM
Two things. First, some UAW brothers from down south would love to talk to you about quality.
Second, no lowlife’s like Lexus?
They also reveal that this brazen fraud extended to the Department of the Army, where a corrupt public official exchanged contracts for cash, gambling in Las Vegas, and a $70,000 Lexus.
Source: http://chantilly.patch.com/articles/fbi-chantilly-company-pleads-guilty-to-bribing-government-officials-for-contracts?ncid=newsltuspatc00000001
IlikedAUH2O on April 14, 2013 at 10:54 AM
“You may all go to hell and I will go to Texas!”.
Davy Crockett
Pole-Cat on April 14, 2013 at 11:05 AM
Just go away…
I’ve lived in 24 states in my lifetime d/t father’s profession and then my husband’s……..all OVER this United States.
I prefer the South. Found too many of Northerners like you: mouthy, prejudiced, and totally ignorant of anything out of their small sphere, which they’ve never been out of. (You wouldn’t believe the ignorant questions I got asked about Texas when I was a kid.)
But, that didn’t keep their mouths shut from spitting out garbage such as you’ve posted here on this site.
Even as a kid, I noticed the difference and when we finally had the last glimpse of wherever we were leaving in our rear view mirror, I couldn’t WAIT to get back to the common sense and decency, hospitality, and every day intelligence of the South and Southwestern states.
avagreen on April 14, 2013 at 11:51 AM
BTW, I’m on my second “used” Camry since 1997 as the first one which I bought “used” in 1997 finally got traded in as it reached 325,000 miles back in 2007. Still going strong, but I knew that eventually it would begin giving me problems as I was traveling 100mi round trip daily.
Some “piece of junk”. Neither have ever had to be in the garage for repairs. Fool.
avagreen on April 14, 2013 at 12:08 PM
Obama’s second term is about dividing America… NOT news… it just is.
RalphyBoy on April 14, 2013 at 2:06 PM
I’ve heard this more than once. I stayed in NJ too long… My daughter was raised here and is raising my g’kids here or I’d move. In fact I almost did 10 years ago… Hell, NJ is a pit, as is the E half of Pa.
If I wasn’t lucky enough to have good family around me I’d have left before I married. Now, all I can hope for is that the place I bought to retire to really is as off the map as it seems.
RalphyBoy on April 14, 2013 at 2:17 PM
-
He’s doin his best Archie Bunker without the racists parts… but you know he has them in trump.
RalphyBoy on April 14, 2013 at 2:40 PM
What a loser. I like how it takes you 3 posts over the course of an hour to respond to a single comment. LOL!
No, no they don’t. Go ahead and link a single press release or advertisement from Toyota/Lexus where they SAY anything of the sort, you dishonest moron.
You are a fool and a joke, and it couldn’t be more clear that you don’t know the FIRST thing about cars. Hell, you are a UAW Gubmint Motors shill, that by itself says everything.
Daikokuco on April 14, 2013 at 3:30 PM
That certainly is a long career as a parasite dependent. Nice job living of being a strong self-sufficient individual and pursuing a career and life of your own and all that. Why is it any surprise that such a person would find solace in the South. A place where being a burden is commended.
I’m not from the North. You want to hear ignorant slack jawed morons who have never been outside their small sphere, listen to Southerners and their assumptions about Hawaii! LOL!
Yeah, that South, with such common sense, decency, and intelligence. That’s why Southern states have the most property crime, violent crime, welfare dependence, lowest standardized test scores, highest teen pregnancy rates, and lowest per capita incomes. Because they are just so darn sensible, decent, and intelligent.
Daikokuco on April 14, 2013 at 3:38 PM
You’re still a bigot.
A lot of the subcontracting for work done outside the Sikorsky plant is done in Huntsville by my company SES-I. The aircraft are flown to our plant and we complete the aircraft there. Hughes and Boeing Vertol too. Talking rude doesn’t make you look smart.
Moron.
hawkdriver on April 14, 2013 at 5:15 PM
Since you lack reading comprehension skills, I will say again that Mercedes sells a lot of cars at higher prices than the other brands you seem to be mentioning. I may not agree that they are a good buy but they are recognized as top dog, even in Germany.
IlikedAUH2O on April 15, 2013 at 8:33 AM
Not good with numbers are you? Washington or the media probably has a great job waiting and you can use these posts to prove you are completely bereft of math skills. For some time I thought you were from Eastern Europe, now I see you are a NEA product from our rotten school system. Nobody in the world has the bad math and logic I see in you guys! You are number 1! (Look that up.)
Please don’t look up the engine size of Cadillacs between 2006 and 2011. I think their smallest power plant was a 3.6. Most were 4 plus or 6.5 liters.
And don’t look at the back of about 96% of the Audis where it says 1.8 and 2.0. And BMW says 325 or 330…maybe even 3.5 if you want to pay through the nose. That is 2.5 liters, son. They use 2.0 to avoid Americans realizing that they have all of 120 or so cubic inches.
Your English is also a good indication of the US school system.
Logic?
Benz has larger engines, of course, sell tons of cars at higher prices than the BMWs and Audis and are pretty well accepted as better vehicles all around if you want to spend the money.
Never been to Germany, eh sport?
IlikedAUH2O on April 15, 2013 at 8:52 AM
In simple words for you:
3.6 and 4 + and 6.5 are bigger numbers and bigger engine displacements than 2.0…understand, yet?
The Lexus comments I made on market position were what they tell their sales people. You, know, the orders they get from the Toyota people you snub who own them.
And even PR articles and tests talk of Lexus “chasing” Mercedes and BMW. That generally means you are behind.
IlikedAUH2O on April 15, 2013 at 8:58 AM
Heh! Is this^^^ the best you’ve got?
Hard to believe that there are actual living, breathing Americans that walk upright who think that children/wives/mothers are ??”parasites”??
.
Worker’s Republic of Hawaii?
.
You have no idea of what I’ve done as an adult, but on that subject: You’ll have to forgive me for thinking you were from the North. All you’ve done is proven to the whole wide-world that there are also ignorant, know-nothing, poorly educated, chauvinistic bigots that live in Hawaii (as well as in the northern hemisphere of the U.S.), where the COL is astronomical
Hawaii, where…. SPAM ….is the favorite food (yuk!), gas is taxed at about $0.70 a gal and you can’t own land, where a highway costs $80 million a mile and almost 40 years to build,….. the land where the high cost of everyday items is due to the fact that everything has to be shipped in and you pray the shipments never stop arriving.
I hear gas costs $.80 more than the mainland, food is 175% what you pay, and where the tax structure and regulation structure is outrageous, which harms the lower- and middle-classes the hardest. Where it does nothing but rain most of the time and a number of residents there don’t take kindly to the “Haole” (amply proven by your hate-filled rhetoric on this forum). http://voices.yahoo.com/racism-paradise-why-did-three-native-hawaiians-274874.html
And, supposedly that’s “where the communist-in-chief was born and they worship him there”…… (another yuk!)
Yeah, I wanna be in Hawaii.
If you’re proof of what’s over there, I’ll just stay here, thank you.
avagreen on April 15, 2013 at 11:02 AM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2