Rasmussen: Three-way tie in Alabama

posted at 11:00 am on March 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Rasmussen has conducted the first post-Super Tuesday poll in the key primary state of Alabama, where voters will decide on Tuesday which Republican to back for the nomination.  They found a three-way virtual tie for the lead, with Newt Gingrich up one point over Rick Santorum and two points over Mitt Romney:

Alabama Republicans are up to bat next, and right now it’s a near three-way tie going into next Tuesday’s primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Alabama finds Newt Gingrich barely ahead with 30% support to 29% for Rick Santorum and 28% for Mitt Romney. Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%) of the vote. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

The big surprise here is Romney’s standing.  Romney supposedly doesn’t play well in the South, and yet here he is within the margin of error for the lead.  That changes, though, if Gingrich drops out of the race.  Santorum would beat Romney 50/39 — but Rasmussen didn’t poll for a Gingrich-Romney matchup, either.

The internals are all over the place, as one might imagine a three-way tie.  Santorum and Gingrich tie for the “very conservative” vote, 34/34 with just 21% for Romney.  Romney wins both the “somewhat conservative” and “other” votes; 34/30/25 over Ginrich then Santorum in the former, and 36/20/17 over Santorum then Gingrich in the latter.  Favorability ratings are very close:

  • Gingrich: 66/32
  • Santorum: 71/27
  • Romney: 62/35

However, Romney has a double-digit lead on relative strength against Obama, 40/27 over Gingrich, with Santorum at 20%.  That will be very important as late-breaking voters make their decisions, because 55% of respondents believe that their priority is to choose the candidate who can best beat Barack Obama, while only 39% will base their decision on “Republican values.”  If Romney is this close, that may be enough to put him over the top.

It’s been conventional wisdom that Gingrich has to win both Alabama and Mississippi in order to continue in the race.  If Romney wins Alabama, though, it might be enough to make a case that neither Santorum or Gingrich has much reason to continue.


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With a show of hands – how many of you Santorum supporters have been supporting him since the start? Well, who was your first choice, second choice, third choice > Palin, Trump, Cain, Newt, Perry, then Newt again? How many politicos did you rally for who weren’t even running? Is Santorum the bottom of the barrel now? Is your dislike for Mitt Romney really worth an Obama 2nd term?

BabysCatz on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Ha ha. Hey, it’s not our fault if Romney and his big money establishment backers can’t take the hint. We don’t want Romney as our nominee. He will lose to the Obama/media machine.

This is Newt’s time; he’s the only candidate that has the smarts to turn this country around. Wake up America.

IndeCon on March 9, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Better watch where the Democratic Voters are in Alabama. That’s how Romney squeaked by in OHIO. I was expecting him to complain about those votes like he did when Santorum got them in Michigan. Guess he didn’t mind them after all. LOL

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Go Newt or Rick! DUMP MITT NOW! MITT MUST GO!

Pragmatic on March 9, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Better watch where the Democratic Voters are in Alabama. That’s how Romney squeaked by in OHIO. I was expecting him to complain about those votes like he did when Santorum got them in Michigan. Guess he didn’t mind them after all. LOL

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Rick Santorum won the Democrats in Ohio, friend. By a large margin.

Winning in the cities is not equal to winning Democrats.

KingGold on March 9, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Major story here: Romney very competitive in the South. I wonder how much Newt would beat Santorum by if it was a 1 on 1 between the two…

1984 in real life on March 9, 2012 at 12:19 PM

.
Very major- and media will not discuss it – yet. Yankee boy Mittens should be getting hammered in Dixie- or so you would think. But I offer if Newton cannot repeat his Georgia win- he is not even viable as a regional candidate.

Adelson would pull the plug on “his” candidate.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 12:30 PM

These numbers are startling. I’ve only met 2 people, both female, that like Romney: an 83 year old and a nurse in her late 50s. There are a fair number of Newters, but most like Santorum.

bigsixfive on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

With a show of hands – how many of you Santorum supporters have been supporting him since the start? Well, who was your first choice, second choice, third choice > Palin, Trump, Cain, Newt, Perry, then Newt again? How many politicos did you rally for who weren’t even running? Is Santorum the bottom of the barrel now? Is your dislike for Mitt Romney really worth an Obama 2nd term?

BabysCatz on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

You would think this would be a hint that people just don’t like Romney. But somehow, no one seems to take the hint.

Ham Sandwich vs. Romney would be an ugly matchup.

tom on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

70% don’t want Mitt. Remove Gingrich and 60% don’t want Mitt. The only way Mitt gets above 50% is if everyone else drops out.

These numbers are good for Mitt? Other than the dilution caused by other candidates, since when does 28% make anyone very competitive in the South?

I’ve seen the mention of a Reagan Yard Gnome polling better than Obama. I would bet the same versus Mitt, as well.

Carnac on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Political action is irrelevant, Alabama is a beautiful state while Wisconsin is a giant cat box.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Have to disagree with you on Wisconsin. It’s a beautiful state and everyone I know there has teeth. You sure you didn’t get lost and end up in Illinois?

NbyNW on March 9, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Better watch where the Democratic Voters are in Alabama. That’s how Romney squeaked by in OHIO. I was expecting him to complain about those votes like he did when Santorum got them in Michigan. Guess he didn’t mind them after all. LOL

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Actually, most Dems voted for Santo in Ohio too. Romney won Republicans there by 4 points.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM

It will be funny to see Mitt standing at the podium Tuesday night with a baseball cap with the NASCAR logo and Lyrnyd Skynrd playing in the background as he enjoys the applause for winning Alabama….

Santy can claim a moral victory

Bradky on March 9, 2012 at 12:16 PM

This is a good sign … at least we know we can count on getting 5% of the bigoted holier-than-thou Northern vote.

You should form the … Bill Maher Republicans for Mitt PAC?

MarkCasper on March 9, 2012 at 12:35 PM

UW in Madison is one of the most picturesque campuses in the country.

Rusty Allen on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Santorum will be hammered as a social extremist who wants to take women back to the dark ages. He has zero chance in the general.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

New Rasmussen Mississippi poll: Romney 35%, Sant and Newt tied at 27%.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Brand new Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary from Rasmussen

Romney 35,
Santorum 27,
Gingrich 27,
Paul 6

Wow.

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

You would think this would be a hint that people just don’t like Romney. But somehow, no one seems to take the hint.

Ham Sandwich vs. Romney would be an ugly matchup.

tom on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

I’d have to vote for the ham sandwich– At least he/she/it could hit Obama on Obamacare!

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:38 PM

So just got back from vacation and was talking to a couple from Canada waiting for the monorail.

They proceeded to tell me how wonderful Obama was and how we would be crazy to not re-elect him. Then they told me how stupid we were for not passing the Keystone pipeline.

I looked at them and went – you do know that Obama is the one that rejected Keystone and the Republicans want it right?

The conversation ended right there.

gophergirl on March 9, 2012 at 12:38 PM

UW in Madison is one of the most picturesque campuses in the country.

Rusty Allen on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I agree.

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Santorum will be hammered as a social extremist who wants to take women back to the dark ages. He has zero chance in the general.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

And Romney is going to be hammered as an out of touch rich white guy who doesn’t understand unemployment etc. At least Santorum can go after Obama on Obamacare..

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Besides as a conservative, I have been told by a lot of you Mittwits that you don’t need my vote. Romney is going to get independents and moderates in so many numbers; that my vote is inconsequential..

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:04 PM

..while I hesitate to classify myself as a “mittwitt” (funny nickname, that), I would hasten to request you ignore them. We/they/all of us DO need your vote. I cannot conceive of any follower so arrogant as to discount the value of your vote.

Thank you.

The War Planner on March 9, 2012 at 12:40 PM

At least Santorum can go after Obama on Obamacare..

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:39 PM

What if the Supremes take that issue away? Sanctimonious will then have what?

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:41 PM

while I hesitate to classify myself as a “mittwitt” (funny nickname, that), I would hasten to request you ignore them. We/they/all of us DO need your vote. I cannot conceive of any follower so arrogant as to discount the value of your vote.

Thank you.

The War Planner on March 9, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I appreciate the sentiment, and I can assure you even if we nominate Mitt- I am still first and foremost ABO!

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:41 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Rick Santorum won the Democrats in Ohio, friend. By a large margin.

Winning in the cities is not equal to winning Democrats.

KingGold on March 9, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Do you live in Ohio? Did you watch the SOS live minute by minute updates? Did you watch the Dem/Union Counties as they reported? Did you watch Romney’s vote totals increase at the same time? I did. That’s how I know where the votes came from for Romney. Santorum won 69 Counties out of the 88.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:43 PM

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Well stated!!

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 12:43 PM

What if the Supremes take that issue away? Sanctimonious will then have what?

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Federalism, populism.. All the things that he has been talking about on his campaign trail which have nothing to do with social issues.

Atleast Rick can fake being a “regular joe.” No amount of Nascar hats is going to make Romney look like that…

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:44 PM

What if the Supremes take that issue away? Sanctimonious will then have what?

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:41 PM

BTW, yall have a lot more confidence in SCOTUS than I do!

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Santorum will be hammered as a social extremist who wants to take women back to the dark ages. He has zero chance in the general.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I know plenty of women who are not in the least concerned that Santorum will take them “back to the dark ages”. All this “women’s issues” claptrap really means “liberal women’s issues”….. and the liberal women aren’t voting for Romney anymore than they are Santorum.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 12:47 PM

You would think this would be a hint that people just don’t like Romney. But somehow, no one seems to take the hint.

Ham Sandwich vs. Romney would be an ugly matchup.

tom on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

I’d take the Ham Sandwich in that race. Afterall, there is no HamSandCare.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Actually, most Dems voted for Santo in Ohio too. Romney won Republicans there by 4 points.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM

I know what the conventional opinion is about the Dems for Santorum and I’m not saying he didn’t get some. And I’m not saying Romney didn’t get Republican votes.

My point since Super Tuesday is that without the Democratic/Union Stronghold Counties that Romney got, he would not have won Ohio. Even by the 1% that he did.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Santorum will be hammered as a social extremist who wants to take women back to the dark ages. He has zero chance in the general.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM
I know plenty of women who are not in the least concerned that Santorum will take them “back to the dark ages”. All this “women’s issues” claptrap really means “liberal women’s issues”….. and the liberal women aren’t voting for Romney anymore than they are Santorum.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 12:47 PM

What I find funny about that tripe is that they all keep repeating leftist talking points on Santorum all the while saying that those of us who criticize Romney are giving fodder for the left.

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

70% don’t want Mitt. Remove Gingrich and 60% don’t want Mitt. The only way Mitt gets above 50% is if everyone else drops out.

These numbers are good for Mitt? Other than the dilution caused by other candidates, since when does 28% make anyone very competitive in the South?

I’ve seen the mention of a Reagan Yard Gnome polling better than Obama. I would bet the same versus Mitt, as well.

Carnac on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

And yet Romney is in the lead. Screw it, let’s nominate a guy that republicans want even less.

RepublicanInMA on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Actually, most Dems voted for Santo in Ohio too. Romney won Republicans there by 4 points.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM

I know what the conventional opinion is about the Dems for Santorum and I’m not saying he didn’t get some. And I’m not saying Romney didn’t get Republican votes.

My point since Super Tuesday is that without the Democratic/Union Stronghold Counties that Romney got, he would not have won Ohio. Even by the 1% that he did.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

The exit polls were clear. Santorum won Dems by 20+ and Romney won republicans. The republicans in those counties tend to be more moderate. That’s why there was a big difference compared to the rural ones.

RepublicanInMA on March 9, 2012 at 12:56 PM

According to this very handy list from RealClearPolitics.com the Primaries in both Alabama and Mississippi are Open.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Which means that, once again, the Republican Party leadership in those states decided that it would be a good idea to let non-Republicans decide who our Presidential nominee will be.

So we can expect to see the non-Republicans voting for the Republican candidate who they think has the LOWEST chance of defeating Obama.

For the next election, we should demand that all Republican Primaries be closed i.e. limited to Registered Republicans!

wren on March 9, 2012 at 12:58 PM

What I find funny about that tripe is that they all keep repeating leftist talking points on Santorum all the while saying that those of us who criticize Romney are giving fodder for the left.

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Good point and I’ve noticed that also. My opinion has always been that since 2008, Romney has been spreading his wealth around. The Establishment Republicans selected him. The Administration want to run against him since he’s easier to beat. They and the Establishment Republicans and others don’t want Santorum and Newt and that’s why they get attacked; not only from the lying Romney ads, but from the R’s as well.

Go Newt!!

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Brand new Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary from Rasmussen

Romney 35,
Santorum 27,
Gingrich 27,
Paul 6

Wow.

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I think it’s possible Newt drops out before Tuesday with numbers like this…

He has already suspended his campaign in Kansas…

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 1:01 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM
The exit polls were clear. Santorum won Dems by 20+ and Romney won republicans. The republicans in those counties tend to be more moderate. That’s why there was a big difference compared to the rural ones.

RepublicanInMA on March 9, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Why don’t you look at the Fox News OHIO results? They have the totals and the County by County results as well.

As for exit polls? Fox have those also. I don’t know of anyone that would stand the required distance from the voting places and answer 30 questions or whatever the count was. Exit polls can be manipulated as well as any other poll. I don’t depend on an exit poll to tell me something different than the actual votes I saw as they were being tabulated and reported by the SOS of OHIO.

I am going on what I saw on the SOS site and the County by County of the Democratic/Union Stronghold votes as they were coming in. THOSE are the votes that gave Romney the 1% win, just enough by the way to avoid a recount.

Oh and if Santorum received 20% of the Democratic Vote, he would have won the State, LOL

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:08 PM

No silly, if I was Axelrod still be telling all the Democrats to go out and vote for Santorum to give Obama an easy ride in November.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Nah, if you were Axelrod you’d be telling the DNC to make ads calling Romney a flip-flopper on the individual mandate.

Flora Duh on March 9, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Bottom line: If Swerve22 were Axelrod, he would fight Romney, not Santorum.

Gelsomina on March 9, 2012 at 1:11 PM

No Fan of Richard…. but just what the hell is Ron Paul doing ? Really ? Can ANYONE explain the purpose for him to do what he’s doing?

Lets START with having him throw his support behind someone, get the hell out- and go from there. Allowing his distraction just takes away from any type of seriuos process. Is he on some kind of farewell tour here?

Ron Paul should go first.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Here is a video from 2008 of Ron Paul describing his strategy for a permanent campaign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlqXq8YxQFQ

Ron Paul: “We must take back the Republican Party.”

Ron Paul is staying in the race so he can get enough delegates to cause trouble at the Republican Convention.

Ron Paul is a Libertarian. But he would have zero chance if he ran as a Libertarian, so he runs as a Republican.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Actually, most Dems voted for Santo in Ohio too. Romney won Republicans there by 4 points.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM

I do not believe I’d be braging about who supported who in Ohio if I were a Mitt supporter… Even with the D’s voting Rick.

Vote by Ideology

Conservative (66%)
Gingrich 15%, Paul 8%, Romney, 35% Santorum 41%

Moderate or Liberal(34%)
Gingrich 11%, Paul 14%, Romney, 43% Santorum 29%

MarkCasper on March 9, 2012 at 1:12 PM

The conversation ended right there.

gophergirl on March 9, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Did their heads explode or did they just stand there with that blank stare that libs get when confronted with logic?

Lost in Jersey on March 9, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Actually, most Dems voted for Santo in Ohio too. Romney won Republicans there by 4 points.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Ohio is a closed primary state (I know because I live there). You can change your party affiliation at the polling site, but I doubt very many Dems did this. So whatever Democratic vote Santorum got, it was miniscule overall.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 1:15 PM

According to this very handy list from RealClearPolitics.com the Primaries in both Alabama and Mississippi are Open.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Which means that, once again, the Republican Party leadership in those states decided that it would be a good idea to let non-Republicans decide who our Presidential nominee will be.

So we can expect to see the non-Republicans voting for the Republican candidate who they think has the LOWEST chance of defeating Obama.

For the next election, we should demand that all Republican Primaries be closed i.e. limited to Registered Republicans!

wren on March 9, 2012 at 12:58 PM

That is how Romney is getting the votes; he’s the easiest to beat.
Allowing anyone to vote in a so called Republican Primary is how we continue to get the Candidates we get. That and along with the Caucuses. Great for fraud tho. 70% of the voters don’t want Romney but he’s winning and ahead. How does that work? Non-Republican votes.

Election Reform is the only answer. The RNC is worthless by the way.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:16 PM

I appreciate the sentiment, and I can assure you even if we nominate Mitt- I am still first and foremost ABO!

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:41 PM

..good on yer, mate! Then — in 2013 — we can head to the barricades and begin the work of making sure he and the rest in Congress do the work of the people.

The War Planner on March 9, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I appreciate the sentiment, and I can assure you even if we nominate Mitt- I am still first and foremost ABO!

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:41 PM

that is where i am living right now … although there are a couple of folks here …
that shall remain nameless that set my teeth on edge ….
I shall do Yeomans work to ignore them ….

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Election Reform is the only answer. The RNC is worthless by the way.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:16 PM

i agree on both counts .
.. I don’t send money to the RNC … I send it to the candidate ….
I like how NC does primaries …. if you are registered as a Dem … you get a Dem ballot … if you are Registered as a Republican … you get a GOP ballot … if you are a registered Indy … you get to pick which ballot you want ….

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Ron Paul is staying in the race so he can get enough delegates to cause trouble at the Republican Convention.

Ron Paul is a Libertarian. But he would have zero chance if he ran as a Libertarian, so he runs as a Republican.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Correct. He also works in every way with Romney. Scheduling and attack ads on everyone but Romney. When he got called on that he put out an ad against Romney, to provide some cover. I’ve read enough about Ron Paul and who he really is. He should have already been brought up on Ethic charges for double dipping.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:16 PM
i agree on both counts .
.. I don’t send money to the RNC … I send it to the candidate ….
I like how NC does primaries …. if you are registered as a Dem … you get a Dem ballot … if you are Registered as a Republican … you get a GOP ballot … if you are a registered Indy … you get to pick which ballot you want ….

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Now that sounds like a system to promote. If anyone wants to change their registration, do they have to do that 30 days prior to an election? If an Indy chooses a D or R ballot, does that automatically register them as either and cancel their Indy one? Just curious. In Ohio, an Indy can choose to vote issues only or D or R. Not clear if this re-registers them or not.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Correct. He also works in every way with Romney. Scheduling and attack ads on everyone but Romney. When he got called on that he put out an ad against Romney, to provide some cover. I’ve read enough about Ron Paul and who he really is. He should have already been brought up on Ethic charges for double dipping.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM

What cracks me up about Paul is this: A week ago Saturday, I went to a Romney campaign event in the Dayton area. After it was over, I saw some Paul supporters holding signs for him. When I got to my car, there was Paul literature on the windshield. And what was Paul’s only selling point on this literature? He defends the Defense of Marriage Act. A social issue. After he tarred and feathered Santorum that “social issues were a sure loser”. What a hypocrite.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Correct. He also works in every way with Romney.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM

To the extent that Ron Paul is working with Romney, it is most likely because he is betting that Romney will be the Republican candidate who will have the most delegates at the Convention. So Romney is most likely to be the candidate who Ron Paul will have some negotiating leverage with.

Ron Paul is making calculated moves to increase his Power. It is highly unlikely that Ron Paul even cares what Ronmey’s positions on the issues are.

This is a Power Play. Pure and Simple. Real Republicans should not give Ron Paul any more Power!

wren on March 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Now that sounds like a system to promote. If anyone wants to change their registration, do they have to do that 30 days prior to an election? If an Indy chooses a D or R ballot, does that automatically register them as either and cancel their Indy one? Just curious. In Ohio, an Indy can choose to vote issues only or D or R. Not clear if this re-registers them or not.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:33 PM

can register 25 days prior …. I assume that means you can also change your registration within 25 days ….

if you choose R or D ballot that does NOT change your registration ….
you stay an indie ….
have voted as both a R and a D …. still registered as a Indie …

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 1:39 PM

As a Massachusetts yankeee transplanted to northern Alabama for the last 22 years, I can assure you the majority of people I know do not like Romney. I remember trying to sell him to them in 2008 when I supported him, and they just outright laughed at me. Well, not much has changed. They are by and large supporting Newt with Santorum a close second. Romney is definitely last on their list.

KickandSwimMom on March 9, 2012 at 1:40 PM

He defends the Defense of Marriage Act. A social issue. After he tarred and feathered Santorum that “social issues were a sure loser”. What a hypocrite.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM

It seems R Paul appears where Romney is. If he has a speech it most likely is against Santorum and or Newt. Good helper Romney has there. Had to replace Bachmann:-)

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Correct. He also works in every way with Romney. Scheduling and attack ads on everyone but Romney. When he got called on that he put out an ad against Romney, to provide some cover. I’ve read enough about Ron Paul and who he really is. He should have already been brought up on Ethic charges for double dipping.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM

.
OK- again….. WHY aren’t Santorum and Gingrich calling for Ron Paul to drop out ???- HE HAS NO CHANCE – This is not about garnering attention at this point- RP already has gotten that- and its worth only 9%
.
Do they not possess the cajones to tell Paul to take a hike?
This would seem to highlight a weakness in their leadership abilities.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM

As a Massachusetts yankeee transplanted to northern Alabama for the last 22 years, I can assure you the majority of people I know do not like Romney. I remember trying to sell him to them in 2008 when I supported him, and they just outright laughed at me. Well, not much has changed. They are by and large supporting Newt with Santorum a close second. Romney is definitely last on their list.

KickandSwimMom on March 9, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Please get them out to vote and then some! Romney and his goons are pouring millions into their smear pacs in the South. And I’m for Santorum but Gingrich would be my second choice and unless he wins AL & MS overwhelmingly, we’re going to get nowhere.

mozalf on March 9, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Do you live in Ohio? Did you watch the SOS live minute by minute updates? Did you watch the Dem/Union Counties as they reported? Did you watch Romney’s vote totals increase at the same time? I did. That’s how I know where the votes came from for Romney. Santorum won 69 Counties out of the 88.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I don’t live in Ohio, I wasn’t watching the SOS live updates but I was watching the county by county results as they came in and I know where Romney won. It’s not like you need to live in Ohio to have access to that information.

Just to make sure I’m not misunderstanding the point you think you’re making are you suggesting that because Cuyahoga County is a Democrat stronghold and will go for Obama in the general election that we should ignore the votes that came out of there in the primary?

alchemist19 on March 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Ron Paul is making calculated moves to increase his Power. It is highly unlikely that Ron Paul even cares what Ronmey’s positions on the issues are.

This is a Power Play. Pure and Simple. Real Republicans should not give Ron Paul any more Power!

wren on March 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Yes it is. There were articles a few weeks ago about what R Paul wants in exchange for his Delegates and endorsement. Whether his supporters will go along is an open question. You are right tho, R Paul shouldn’t be given any more power. He’s against Conservatives and hasn’t done anything for that cause; only his own.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Alabama voter right here. I can hardly wait to vote, and I’ve been campaigning hard for the next POTUS Mitt Romney. Buckley rule.

brhoton on March 9, 2012 at 1:52 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:33 PM
can register 25 days prior …. I assume that means you can also change your registration within 25 days ….

if you choose R or D ballot that does NOT change your registration ….
you stay an indie ….
have voted as both a R and a D …. still registered as a Indie …

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Hmmm. So if I’m a Registered R then I must vote on the R ballot. But if I’m an Indy, I get to choose, but still remain a Registered Indy. That’s quite an advantage for an Indy if I’m understanding this correctly. Another reason for Election Reform.

Everytime I hear the word Indy, I have a visual image of someone sitting on a fence:-)

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

OK- again….. WHY aren’t Santorum and Gingrich calling for Ron Paul to drop out ???

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Because all of the candidates know that Ron Paul has raised enough money to stay in the race for as long as he wants to.

And neither Santorum nor Ginrich wants to highlight the fact that Ron Paul has run circles around them in the fundraising contest.

According to the FEC website http://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/pnational.do as of the end of the last reporting period the amount of money the following candidates has raised is:

Obama $ 136.9 Million

Romney $ 62.3 Million

Ron Paul $ 30.9 Million

Gingrich $ 18.1 Million

Santorum $ 6.7 Million

If Conservatives want to elect Conservative candidates, then Conservatives need to donate more money to their favorite candidates EARLY in the election cycle.

It is likely too late to change the fundraising situation for the Presidential race in 2012, but it is a lesson Conservatives need to learn for all future elections.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

They are by and large supporting Newt with Santorum a close second. Romney is definitely last on their list.

KickandSwimMom on March 9, 2012 at 1:40 PM

That is good to hear.

Go Newt!! Win this!!!

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Have errands to run. Taking some donations to a local Church that is making a trip to KY to deliver items to the tornado victims. Some have lost everything. So sad. Back later.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 2:01 PM

wren on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

.
So Ron Paul has raised $30 million- and he’s gonna spend it touring the country this summer- PRETENDING TO BE A CANDIDATE ?
makes perfect sense. Ron Quixote. oh boy.

Again- Gingrich nor Santorum have the balls to challenge his nuisance distraction at this point in the primaries.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Hmmm. So if I’m a Registered R then I must vote on the R ballot. But if I’m an Indy, I get to choose, but still remain a Registered Indy. That’s quite an advantage for an Indy if I’m understanding this correctly. Another reason for Election Reform.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Bingo! And as someone who has done quite a bit of Voter Registration volunteer work, I can tell you that giving Indys an advantage like this makes it extremely hard to convince a new voter to register as a Republican.

Why would any rational person want to limit their options unnecessarily, when they can have the best of all worlds by just registering as an Independent?

It is self-destructive for the Republican Party to allow non-Republicans to vote in their Primary elections.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Just to make sure I’m not misunderstanding the point you think you’re making are you suggesting that because Cuyahoga County is a Democrat stronghold and will go for Obama in the general election that we should ignore the votes that came out of there in the primary?

alchemist19 on March 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Not sure what point you are making. Romney won Cuyahoga County and all the highest population (and heavily-Democratic) counties.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 2:09 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Every time I hear the word Indy I picture Harrison Ford. But he’s a lefty.

Rose on March 9, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Not sure what point you are making. Romney won Cuyahoga County and all the highest population (and heavily-Democratic) counties.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I was taking the original point to mean because Romney’s win was propelled by big margins in counties that overall tilt Democrat that his win was somehow tainted. It was the statement I originally quoted combined with stuff like

My point since Super Tuesday is that without the Democratic/Union Stronghold Counties that Romney got, he would not have won Ohio. Even by the 1% that he did.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM

and

I am going on what I saw on the SOS site and the County by County of the Democratic/Union Stronghold votes as they were coming in. THOSE are the votes that gave Romney the 1% win, just enough by the way to avoid a recount.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:08 PM

I take those statements to mean there is something illegitimate about Romney’s win on Tuesday. I was merely curious if I was understanding the point correctly. If there was something questionable I also wanted to understand what it was exactly.

alchemist19 on March 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

According to this very handy list from RealClearPolitics.com the Primaries in both Alabama and Mississippi are Open.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Which means that, once again, the Republican Party leadership in those states decided that it would be a good idea to let non-Republicans decide who our Presidential nominee will be.

I believe the open primary for Alabama is a state choice rather than a party choice. The state registers people to vote but they don’t indicate any party affiliation on the voter ID card. You show up at the polls and ask for the ballot for the party whose primary you care about voting in.

Jill1066 on March 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

So Ron Paul has raised $30 million- and he’s gonna spend it touring the country this summer- PRETENDING TO BE A CANDIDATE ?
makes perfect sense. Ron Quixote. oh boy.
Again- Gingrich nor Santorum have the balls to challenge his nuisance distraction at this point in the primaries.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Running for President gives Ron Paul a reason to tour the country to build support for his “Liberty” movement. He is identifying supporters, raising money, getting his supporters elected to local Republican Central Committees, and supporting “Liberty” candidates for Congressional and local offices.

“Liberty” Candidates are anti-war, pro-marijuana Libertarian Candidates who run as Republicans.

Browse the Ron Paul Forums so get a view of his larger strategy:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/forum.php

Again, it is self-destructive for the Republican Party to allow Ron Paul to cause this much damage to the Republican brand.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 2:37 PM

I take those statements to mean there is something illegitimate about Romney’s win on Tuesday. I was merely curious if I was understanding the point correctly. If there was something questionable I also wanted to understand what it was exactly.

alchemist19 on March 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Ok, I see.

All I can say is that Romney won by carrying the more moderate portions of the state. Santorum won the more conservative areas.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Hang in there Newt!

Night Owl on March 9, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Brand new Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary from Rasmussen

Romney 35,
Santorum 27,
Gingrich 27,
Paul 6

Wow.

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I am not that surprised. Responsible Republican voters know that we need to get this over with. Remember, from here on out Santorum needs to win every contest with about 65% of the vote in order to catch Romney. 65% is a tall order in a four person race. It is a real tall order for somebody like Santorum. Aint happening.

kurtd on March 9, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Once took a motorcycle trip on the Lookout Mountain Parkway. We stopped at some little town in AL and had a gigantic breakfast that was one of the best I’ve ever eaten. Can’t remember if the waitress had all her teeth, but she called all the guys in our group “Sugar” and all the women “Honey”. I loved that drive and we met some fine people along the way.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Grin. I love that.

Portia46 on March 9, 2012 at 3:47 PM

BabysCatz on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I Have never been for any of the other candidates running. Neither was my husband. We have been for Santorum for the last 5 months.

fight like a girl on March 9, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Hang in there Newt!

Night Owl on March 9, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Paid for by Mitt Romney.

fight like a girl on March 9, 2012 at 3:56 PM

well, half is brain is dead from watching his face…the scary part is that leaves the logical part working…just not very well.

rgranger on March 9, 2012 at 4:02 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:26 PM
.
OK- again….. WHY aren’t Santorum and Gingrich calling for Ron Paul to drop out ???- HE HAS NO CHANCE – This is not about garnering attention at this point- RP already has gotten that- and its worth only 9%
.
Do they not possess the cajones to tell Paul to take a hike?
This would seem to highlight a weakness in their leadership abilities.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Not sure, but would just guess it’s because they don’t think he’s a threat. I don’t think it would do any good, after seeing the Michigan election results where Perry/Bachmann/Hunstman & Cain received votes! Also in Ohio, Perry & Huntsman received over 13,000 votes between them. Besides, Paul is not in the race to win, just to get his message out and collect delegates to bargain with:-) That’s my opinion, anyway.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Ham Sandwich vs. Romney would be an ugly matchup.

tom on March 9, 2012 at 12:31 PM

does the ham sandwich have Swiss and spicy brown mustard ????

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Everytime I hear the word Indy, I have a visual image of someone sitting on a fence:-)

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

not so much a fence sitter … live in a very blue area …. GOP candidates very often run unopposed …. Dems always a contest …. I can vote for the weakest Dem to face the Republican … also our sheriff and county commish types who are dems are actually decent … so I can support them against challengers ….
it depends on were you live …

Bingo! And as someone who has done quite a bit of Voter Registration volunteer work, I can tell you that giving Indys an advantage like this makes it extremely hard to convince a new voter to register as a Republican.

Why would any rational person want to limit their options unnecessarily, when they can have the best of all worlds by just registering as an Independent?

It is self-destructive for the Republican Party to allow non-Republicans to vote in their Primary elections.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 2:08 PM

i agree … but as long as they will let me … I will do it ….
inspite of the advantage most ppl registar as a Dem or GOP …

conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 4:42 PM

I believe the open primary for Alabama is a state choice rather than a party choice. The state registers people to vote but they don’t indicate any party affiliation on the voter ID card. You show up at the polls and ask for the ballot for the party whose primary you care about voting in.

Jill1066 on March 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

You are correct.

KickandSwimMom on March 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Let’s hope Alabama scores a win for Newt. He is the only one who can humble the narcissistic, divisive toddler

Rick013 on March 9, 2012 at 5:13 PM

RASMUSSEN HAS ROMNEY +8 in MISSISSIPPI!

Is Romney’s ‘Southern Problem’ Overstated?

[Romney] actually leads his next closest competitor in the South by over 100,000 votes.

In Oklahoma and in the five former Confederate states that have held primaries so far, Romney has won 37 percent of the vote to Newt Gingrich’s 33 percent and Rick Santorum’s 19 percent.

But in addition to those victories, Romney finished second in South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Romney drew a crowd of several hundred at a rally in Jackson, Miss., on Friday, and his campaign team appears a bit surprised by polling that suggests he has a real shot to come out of the “away game” with a pair of upset victories.

Romney sits in a three-way tie with Gingrich and Santorum in Alabama and is actually leading in Mississippi by 8 percent, according to a pair of Rasmussen polls released on Friday.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/03/09/is_romneys_southern_problem_overstated_113430.html

mountainaires on March 9, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Newt Mittens needs to give it up already, and so does Rick. It’s time to start taking down obama.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:08 AM

FIFY

Hang in there Newt…..!!!!

NOMOBO on March 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

alchemist19 on March 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I know you don’t need to live in Ohio to follow the results. As I said here: bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:52 PM And also here:
bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Just to make sure I’m not misunderstanding the point you think you’re making are you suggesting that because Cuyahoga County is a Democrat stronghold and will go for Obama in the general election that we should ignore the votes that came out of there in the primary?alchemist19 on March 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

No, I’m not suggesting that. It’s not just Cuyahoga County, but as Lorain(44%R to 31%S), Geuga(46%R to 30%S), Hamilton(49%R to 29%S) and others. I just find it very strange that Dem/Union Counties would even be voting for ANY Republican. Why would they? It’s just out of the ordinary pattern for that to happen. I’ve mentioned this to family members and they are like, What? I would have the same reaction if Counties that have always voted Republican would have voted heavily Democratic.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 6:22 PM

So Ron Paul has raised $30 million- and he’s gonna spend it touring the country this summer- PRETENDING TO BE A CANDIDATE ?
makes perfect sense. Ron Quixote. oh boy.FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Well if he follows his pattern, he’ll buy ads attacking Santorum and Newt on behalf of Romney. That’s my opinion. He has already done this. What I want to see is when he asks his supporters to vote for Romney:-) so he can have a speaking platform at the Convention for himself and possibly his son. The reaction of the Paul supporters will be interesting.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Why would any rational person want to limit their options unnecessarily, when they can have the best of all worlds by just registering as an Independent?

It is self-destructive for the Republican Party to allow non-Republicans to vote in their Primary elections.

wren on March 9, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Another thing is that I’m sure this varies among the States. For example, in NC as the OP said, they retain their Indy status. However, perhaps in other States they would now be registered as a D or R. Not sure how it is in Ohio, but want to clarify it. Very confusing to say the least.

Election Reform!

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 6:33 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Every time I hear the word Indy I picture Harrison Ford. But he’s a lefty.

Rose on March 9, 2012 at 2:24 PM

LOL. I don’t even know what it means to be an Indy. Part Dem and part R?

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 6:35 PM

RASMUSSEN:

ROMNEY WITH 8 POINT LEAD IN MISSISSIPPI.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/mississippi/2012_mississippi_republican_primary

Friday, March 09, 2012

Rasmussen Reports’ first Republican primary survey in Mississippi shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading his closest competitors by eight points. A new statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Magnolia State shows Romney with 35% of the vote, while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich each draw support from 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with six percent (6%). One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Mississippi survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

mountainaires on March 9, 2012 at 6:42 PM

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

not so much a fence sitter … live in a very blue area …. GOP candidates very often run unopposed …. Dems always a contest …. I can vote for the weakest Dem to face the Republican … also our sheriff and county commish types who are dems are actually decent … so I can support them against challengers ….
it depends on were you live …
conservative tarheel on March 9, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Thanks for the perspective. I wasn’t saying that about you per se:-) I’ve had that visual for years, LOL I can understand the advantage as you’ve explained it. Just never understood the platform or beliefs. This has been a good discussion and I intend to see what the options are in Ohio regarding Indy’s etc.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Seems like even the Anti-Romney station Fox News is changing the narrative, “Maybe a prolonged drag out fight for the Republican Nomination isn’t good for the Party?” Really?

If it keeps going like this – just get ready for four more years of Obama.

mark cantu on March 9, 2012 at 7:51 PM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ms/mississippi_republican_presidential_primary-2163.html

ROMNEY 8 POINTS AHEAD IN MISSISSIPPI: RASMUSSEN

mountainaires on March 9, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Do you live in Ohio? Did you watch the SOS live minute by minute updates? Did you watch the Dem/Union Counties as they reported? Did you watch Romney’s vote totals increase at the same time? I did. That’s how I know where the votes came from for Romney. Santorum won 69 Counties out of the 88.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I like in Ohio, and it is clear you are not very informed about how this works. Santorum won many more counties than Romney, but those counties had very low populations compared to the cities.

I guess the argument you are making is do not count people’s votes who live in the city. Good luck with that.

antisense on March 9, 2012 at 8:00 PM

No, I’m not suggesting that. It’s not just Cuyahoga County, but as Lorain(44%R to 31%S), Geuga(46%R to 30%S), Hamilton(49%R to 29%S) and others. I just find it very strange that Dem/Union Counties would even be voting for ANY Republican. Why would they? It’s just out of the ordinary pattern for that to happen. I’ve mentioned this to family members and they are like, What? I would have the same reaction if Counties that have always voted Republican would have voted heavily Democratic.

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Sigh… you do know that Republicans live in these counties right? They have large populations. Those counties are where most people live. They might have more Dems than Republicans thus turning them blue during presidential elections, but they still have more Republicans registered there than in the boonies.

antisense on March 9, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Major story here: Romney very competitive in the South. I wonder how much Newt would beat Santorum by if it was a 1 on 1 between the two…

1984 in real life on March 9, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I wonder how much Santorum would have beaten Romney in Michigan, Ohio, Alaska and Georgia if Newt had not stayed in. I also wonder how much Santorum would beat Romney by in Alabama and Mississippi if Newt were not in the race. Newt has come in third and fourth in most contests outside the South yet you Newties keep beating the drum of ignorance that is going to hand Romney the nomination. What fools you are.

And the awful truth is, next year Newt will be back to sitting on a couch with Pelosi and talking up health care mandates with Hilary.

“A fool is born every minute” is not just an old saying, it is Newt’s campaign theme.

fight like a girl on March 9, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Santorum is the best choice by far – and the only one of these three who can be trusted.

Pork-Chop on March 9, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Santorum is the best WORST choice by far – and the only one of these three who can be trusted has done nothing but run his bigoted mouth and lose his last election by nearly 20 points.

Pork-Chop on March 9, 2012 at 8:30 PM

There. Fixed it for you.

bluegill on March 9, 2012 at 8:52 PM

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