Rasmussen: Three-way tie in Alabama

posted at 11:00 am on March 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Rasmussen has conducted the first post-Super Tuesday poll in the key primary state of Alabama, where voters will decide on Tuesday which Republican to back for the nomination.  They found a three-way virtual tie for the lead, with Newt Gingrich up one point over Rick Santorum and two points over Mitt Romney:

Alabama Republicans are up to bat next, and right now it’s a near three-way tie going into next Tuesday’s primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Alabama finds Newt Gingrich barely ahead with 30% support to 29% for Rick Santorum and 28% for Mitt Romney. Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%) of the vote. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

The big surprise here is Romney’s standing.  Romney supposedly doesn’t play well in the South, and yet here he is within the margin of error for the lead.  That changes, though, if Gingrich drops out of the race.  Santorum would beat Romney 50/39 — but Rasmussen didn’t poll for a Gingrich-Romney matchup, either.

The internals are all over the place, as one might imagine a three-way tie.  Santorum and Gingrich tie for the “very conservative” vote, 34/34 with just 21% for Romney.  Romney wins both the “somewhat conservative” and “other” votes; 34/30/25 over Ginrich then Santorum in the former, and 36/20/17 over Santorum then Gingrich in the latter.  Favorability ratings are very close:

  • Gingrich: 66/32
  • Santorum: 71/27
  • Romney: 62/35

However, Romney has a double-digit lead on relative strength against Obama, 40/27 over Gingrich, with Santorum at 20%.  That will be very important as late-breaking voters make their decisions, because 55% of respondents believe that their priority is to choose the candidate who can best beat Barack Obama, while only 39% will base their decision on “Republican values.”  If Romney is this close, that may be enough to put him over the top.

It’s been conventional wisdom that Gingrich has to win both Alabama and Mississippi in order to continue in the race.  If Romney wins Alabama, though, it might be enough to make a case that neither Santorum or Gingrich has much reason to continue.


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Gingrich should stay in this race for a while. He makes excellent points about Obama that will help Romney in November.

thuja on March 9, 2012 at 11:03 AM

“Home of trailer parks and tornadoes, you NASCAR patriots!”

-Cruise Director Ken

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Rust Belt Ricky™ needs to drop out.

portlandon on March 9, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Gingrich should stay in this race for a while.

That’s true.

Santorum is too busy being a bible freak show to do anything else. He hurts everything.

Moesart on March 9, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Go Newt!

Gingrich was the only candidate who handled the Limbaugh episode the right way.

darwin on March 9, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I’m a Mitt supporter but he will not win Alabama. He will get some delegates

gerrym51 on March 9, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Well, Jeff Foxworth endorsed Romney. So there’s that. (Oh, also the Mississippi Governor…whatevs)

bluealice on March 9, 2012 at 11:07 AM

+1 portlandon

cmsinaz on March 9, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Still pretending that this is still a race I see.

rubberneck on March 9, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Newt needs to give it up already, and so does Rick. It’s time to start taking down obama.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Well, Jeff Foxworth endorsed Romney. So there’s that. (Oh, also the Mississippi Governor…whatevs)

I doubt Mitt even knows who Jeff Foxworthy is

lol

gerrym51 on March 9, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Bama girl for Santorum.

kringeesmom on March 9, 2012 at 11:11 AM

I don’t see Romney winning either Alabama or Mississippi, but if he does? Game over.

changer1701 on March 9, 2012 at 11:11 AM

I doubt Mitt even knows who Jeff Foxworthy is

gerrym51 on March 9, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Maybe. But his son does..he tweeted it.

bluealice on March 9, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Newt needs to give it up already, and so does Rick. It’s time to start taking down obama.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:08 AM

What’s the hurry? American Idol is still on. March Madness is about to start. MLB starts next month.

‘Moderates’ have a short attention span. No need to get them focused until they return from vacation in September.

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I knew those fly by night polls yesterday were bogus. That said though, I’m shocked Romney is this close. Once again, low information and bandwagon voters I guess….

davek70 on March 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Git R Done

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Git R Done

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

LOL Yup

bluealice on March 9, 2012 at 11:15 AM

I’d still take Alabama over Wisconsin, at least Alabamatonianites have teeth.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:15 AM

The only yard signs I see in my neck of the woods (West Mobile) are for Santorum… no Gingrich, no Romney… Bonner is fighting hard to keep his seat, being challenged by 2 new candidates including a Tea Party type.. I’ve already received 4 mailings from Bonner who would normally be a walk.

kringeesmom on March 9, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Sheesh..the nastiness here can give any lib anywhere a run for his money.

jeanie on March 9, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I’d still take Alabama over Wisconsin, at least Alabamatonianites have teeth.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:15 AM

It’s obvious you’ve never visited….

kringeesmom on March 9, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Mittens is doing himself no favors by calling the Southern round of primaries as his ‘away game’. Nice way to say they’re not part of the sensible part of the country, like Massachusetts or Vermont. His handlers better sit down and have a heart-to-heart with him, an intervention if you will, about his continuing tendency to insert foot in mouth.

Bob in VA on March 9, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Go Newt!

NbyNW on March 9, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Newt needs to give it up already, and so does Rick. It’s time to start taking down obama.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Is that you, Axelrod?

onlineanalyst on March 9, 2012 at 11:19 AM

The Death Star should be moving over the south any time now.

WashJeff on March 9, 2012 at 11:20 AM

…but…but…the Republican voters have decided that it’s Romney! He’s our only hope to beat Obama! Newt and Santorum should drop out now! This minute!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!

/Mittbot

JannyMae on March 9, 2012 at 11:20 AM

I’d still take Alabama over Wisconsin, at least Alabamatonianites have teeth.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:15 AM

???

Nothing against Alabama, but Wisconsin has been the center of the political universe this past year. Haven’t you noticed?

NbyNW on March 9, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I knew those fly by night polls yesterday were bogus. That said though, I’m shocked Romney is this close. Once again, low information and bandwagon voters I guess….

davek70 on March 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

That’s what it is: low-information voters and bandwagon

onlineanalyst on March 9, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Nothing against Alabama, but Wisconsin has been the center of the political universe this past year. Haven’t you noticed?

NbyNW on March 9, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Political action is irrelevant, Alabama is a beautiful state while Wisconsin is a giant cat box.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Oh sweet home Alabama.

celtic warrior on March 9, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Newt needs to get out.

Santorum will beat Romney one on one

liberal4life on March 9, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I like Newt but he should just drop out. It’s over for him. It’s probably over for Santroum too, but Romney is sure to win if one of these guys doesn’t leave.

JellyToast on March 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

What’s the hurry? American Idol is still on. March Madness is about to start. MLB starts next month.

‘Moderates’ have a short attention span. No need to get them focused until they return from vacation in September.

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I completely agree. McCain was known to be the nominee well before Obama was in ’08. Didn’t exactly help him.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

If Rick Santorum and his people were smart, they would help Newt win both of these states (AL and MS) because a Romney win will bury them both.

Look, it’s obvious that Newt is not dropping out before these primaries and Santorum isn’t at an advantage like he was in TN or OK… AL and MS are more like SC (State Newt will do well).

If the goal is to keep Romney winless in the South, Rick Santorum should clear the way for Newt in AL and MS…A Romney loss will help him far more than a Romney win.

Newt will march on win or lose…Newt will compete until Texas which he hopes to win (157 winner take all delegates) with the help of Perry. No amount of pressure will get Newt out (as long as he has Palin on his side)

jules on March 9, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Newt needs to get out.

Santorum will beat Romney one on one

liberal4life on March 9, 2012 at 11:25 AM

…go reincarnate yourself!

KOOLAID2 on March 9, 2012 at 11:27 AM

The big surprise here is Romney’s standing.

Not so much. I expect folks are giving the electability factor some serious thought as the weeks go by.

whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 11:27 AM

ARG poll:

Newt 35
Mitt 31
Rick 20
Paul 7

Looks like Newt is hanging in there! :)

Midwesterner on March 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Hang in there Newt
h/t seven percent.

angrymike on March 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Since 7% is not here yet…(:>)
…Hang in there Newt !!!

KOOLAID2 on March 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Newt will march on win or lose…Newt will compete until Texas which he hopes to win (157 winner take all delegates) with the help of Perry.

jules on March 9, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Texas is not winner take all.

Jon0815 on March 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

It’s obvious you’ve never visited….

kringeesmom on March 9, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Once took a motorcycle trip on the Lookout Mountain Parkway. We stopped at some little town in AL and had a gigantic breakfast that was one of the best I’ve ever eaten. Can’t remember if the waitress had all her teeth, but she called all the guys in our group “Sugar” and all the women “Honey”. I loved that drive and we met some fine people along the way.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

ARG poll:

Newt 35
Mitt 31
Rick 20
Paul 7

Looks like Newt is hanging in there! :)

Midwesterner on March 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Forgot to specify this is Mississippi

Midwesterner on March 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

angrymike on March 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

(…sorry!…wasn’t there a minute ago!)

KOOLAID2 on March 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I can’t take any more of Santorum’s election day speeches. Please, Rick, have mercy and drop out.

“We need to, you know, go back to, values, back to an America where, the people knew their values. I spent my kids’ tuition on this race because I know, what it’s like to have Alabama, uh, values.”

EddieC on March 9, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Well, Jeff Foxworth endorsed Romney. So there’s that. (Oh, also the Mississippi Governor…whatevs)

bluealice on March 9, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Ammendment. I’m a Romney supporter and actually think it’s pretty cool, snark aside

bluealice on March 9, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Faraway
that’s it, that’s my new one.
Git-r-done Newt!!!!!!

angrymike on March 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

If this holds up, and they all finish within a point or two of each other, the only one with something to lose is Gingrich. Romney & Santorum could both claim victories, and Gingrich would lose even if he won. For Gingrich to get any mo at all, he would have to win by a lot more than one or two points.

DRayRaven on March 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

ARG poll:

Newt 35
Mitt 31
Rick 20
Paul 7

Looks like Newt is hanging in there! :)

Midwesterner on March 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

That would be good news for Newt if the race weren’t already over.

EddieC on March 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

“Home of trailer parks and tornadoes, you NASCAR patriots!”

-Cruise Director Ken

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Or in the words of Liberal Radio Host, Mike Malloy:

‘Little Grease Spots on the Pavement’ Killed by ‘Their God’

And oh yeah,

Hang in there Newt…!!!

h/t Seven Percent Solution

Flora Duh on March 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Newt leads in a tight race.

Story from Ed: It’s a tie, and Romney may win.

/sigh

Irritable Pundit on March 9, 2012 at 11:34 AM

The first candidate that promises to save Auburn’s oak trees will win.

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Go Newt!

conservador on March 9, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Is that you, Axelrod?

onlineanalyst on March 9, 2012 at 11:19 AM

No silly, if I was Axelrod still be telling all the Democrats to go out and vote for Santorum to give Obama an easy ride in November.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I just heard a clip on the radio of Santorum giving a crowd his version of a Paula Deen-esque “Hey ya’ll!”

Brat on March 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Did Newt promise to build a NASCAR track on the moon yet?

EddieC on March 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

That would be good news for Newt if the race weren’t already over.

EddieC on March 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Romney Really Might Not Have the Delegates by June

Flora Duh on March 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

So the supposed frontrunner, romneycare, who has outspent his competitors 100 to 1, has all the establishment paid off is being touted by romneycare news network AKA fox news as the inevitable nominee, will probably come in third in Alabama & missippi and lose kansas. Further, romneycare is having trouble topping 30% of the vote in the south.

God, we are f*cked w/romneycare the socialist!

Danielvito on March 9, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Mittens is doing himself no favors by calling the Southern round of primaries as his ‘away game’. Nice way to say they’re not part of the sensible part of the country, like Massachusetts or Vermont. His handlers better sit down and have a heart-to-heart with him, an intervention if you will, about his continuing tendency to insert foot in mouth.

Bob in VA on March 9, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Like his comments about Obama “just being in over his head” and “the President really has no control over gas prices”. He wants to play rough with the other GOP candidates, but can’t bring himself to be rough on Obama. If he gets the nomination, I think he has no clue just how nasty the Dems are going to be with him. This nice guy stuff will not cut it.

Bitter Clinger on March 9, 2012 at 11:39 AM

If Rick Santorum and his people were smart, they would help Newt win both of these states (AL and MS) because a Romney win will bury them both.

Look, it’s obvious that Newt is not dropping out before these primaries and Santorum isn’t at an advantage like he was in TN or OK… AL and MS are more like SC (State Newt will do well).

If the goal is to keep Romney winless in the South, Rick Santorum should clear the way for Newt in AL and MS…A Romney loss will help him far more than a Romney win.

Rick Santorum has won 8 states across the country and competed well in the others. Newt Gingrich has won 2 states, one his home and both in the southeast. He came in 3rd or 4th in the rest of the 10 Super Tuesday states. Rick Santorum should not be expected to get out of the way for Newt Gingrich to lose to Mitt Romney.

The voters planning to vote for Newt Gingrich should seriously consider whether they want this primary contest to continue or not. Gingrich can stay in but he’s not going to be competitive after losing TN and OK badly. Rick Santorum has a slim chance to make this contest competitive but if he loses next Tuesday that chance evaporates.

Jill1066 on March 9, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Once took a motorcycle trip on the Lookout Mountain Parkway. We stopped at some little town in AL and had a gigantic breakfast that was one of the best I’ve ever eaten. Can’t remember if the waitress had all her teeth, but she called all the guys in our group “Sugar” and all the women “Honey”. I loved that drive and we met some fine people along the way.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Vinny Gambini likes his grits ‘regla.’

fossten on March 9, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Once took a motorcycle trip on the Lookout Mountain Parkway. We stopped at some little town in AL and had a gigantic breakfast that was one of the best I’ve ever eaten. Can’t remember if the waitress had all her teeth, but she called all the guys in our group “Sugar” and all the women “Honey”. I loved that drive and we met some fine people along the way.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I’m a California transplant to Alabama, and I love it here!

kringeesmom on March 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Rust Belt Ricky™ needs to drop out.

portlandon on March 9, 2012 at 11:05 AM

.
No Fan of Richard…. but just what the hell is Ron Paul doing ? Really ? Can ANYONE explain the purpose for him to do what he’s doing?

Lets START with having him throw his support behind someone, get the hell out- and go from there. Allowing his distraction just takes away from any type of seriuos process. Is he on some kind of farewell tour here?

Ron Paul should go first.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Anyone who supports Santorum, are you really okay with his stated positions on social issues. Are you okay with his quotes about various social issues that others have posted and are easy to find?

The reality is most of America would not be okay with what he has said.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Newt leads in a tight race.
Story from Ed: It’s a tie, and Romney may win.
/sigh
Irritable Pundit on March 9, 2012 at 11:34 AM

While I’ve taken HA bloggers to task for missing the forest for the trees, I can’t fault Ed on this one, what with the numbers from Rasmussen being:
“Newt Gingrich barely ahead with 30% support to 29% for Rick Santorum and 28% for Mitt Romney”
That is a statistical tie. Easily within the margin of error. Given those numbers any of the three may win.

whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

No silly, if I was Axelrod still be telling all the Democrats to go out and vote for Santorum to give Obama an easy ride in November.

Swerve22 on March 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Nah, if you were Axelrod you’d be telling the DNC to make ads calling Romney a flip-flopper on the individual mandate.

Flora Duh on March 9, 2012 at 11:43 AM

but just what the hell is Ron Paul doing ? Really ? Can ANYONE explain the purpose for him to do what he’s doing?

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

To help Romney of course. There never was any other reason.

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Can ANYONE explain the purpose for him to do what he’s doing?
FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

RP wants to have delegates and influence at the convention in order to advance his political ideology. He’s not – as the saying goes – “in it to win it”, so I don’t expect him to leave the race.

whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

The big surprise here is Romney’s standing. Romney supposedly doesn’t play well in the South, and yet here he is within the margin of error for the lead.

Yup!

cicerone on March 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Romney Really Might Not Have the Delegates by June

Flora Duh on March 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Good article, but even under this scenario Romney would be so close that he’ll get the nom at convention.

Not to say I don’t want a brokered convention. I do. That’s why I built planb2012.org.

EddieC on March 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Gingrich’s campaign says he has to win both Mississippi and Alabama to stay in the race…

I think he knows the race for him is over though, the other day he referenced his campaign in the past tense…

I think Newt really wants to block Romney from winning, so if he loses either state, I suspect he will drop out and endorse Santorum…

OTOH, if he wins both states he will try and once again become the non Romney…

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

The big surprise here is Romney’s standing.

Ed, For the love of God?

Less than 3 in 10 want to vote for the obvious winner … yet you are surprised its SO HIGH? The news here is simple, one poll Rick and one poll Mitt yesterday … you highlighted the one that had Newt lowest. Even a snide “southern strategy” comment. Now Newt is in 1st … but the story is Mitt “surprisingly” in third place?

I can’t wait to have you back when this is over.

MarkCasper on March 9, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Anyone who supports Santorum, are you really okay with his stated positions on social issues. Are you okay with his quotes about various social issues that others have posted and are easy to find?

The reality is most of America would not be okay with what he has said.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

What did he say?

That he doesnt beleive in contaception???

Not sure if that is so out there, I mean the guy had eight children, so it s pretty obvious they were not using contraception.

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 11:49 AM

To help Romney of course. There never was any other reason.

faraway on March 9, 2012 at 11:43 AM

.
So you are saying Santorum and Gingrich are basically idiots because they can’t make the case for a single digit candidate like Paul to get the hell out of the race ?- as it is obvious he can’t win and is only serving as a distraction for a true search for the best candidate.

And wouldn’t getting more of thosse votes against Romney might be good thing for them too ?

What a cluster eff.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Hang in there Newt…!!!

:)

Seven Percent Solution on March 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

I doubt Mitt even knows who Jeff Foxworthy is

lol

gerrym51 on March 9, 2012 at 11:10 AM

He knows Kid Rock.

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Mitt Romney is still a Democrat. Obama will clean his clock.

Pragmatic on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

With a show of hands - how many of you Santorum supporters have been supporting him since the start? Well, who was your first choice, second choice, third choice > Palin, Trump, Cain, Newt, Perry, then Newt again? How many politicos did you rally for who weren’t even running? Is Santorum the bottom of the barrel now? Is your dislike for Mitt Romney really worth an Obama 2nd term?

BabysCatz on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Mitt Romney is still a Democrat. Obama will clean his clock.

Pragmatic on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I think you might be right, especially come to find out he has been lying about his support for a federal individual mandate…

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Less than 3 in 10 want to vote for the obvious winner … yet you are surprised its SO HIGH?

MarkCasper on March 9, 2012 at 11:47 AM

No. Ed is correct with these Rasmussen numbers there’s no spinning. To illustate it in terms of your “3 in 10″ example – divide 10 by 3.

whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 12:00 PM

No. Ed is correct with these Rasmussen numbers there’s no spinning. To illustate it in terms of your “3 in 10″ example – divide 10 by 3.

whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Heh?

MarkCasper on March 9, 2012 at 12:03 PM

My problem with Romney is his dishonesty. Especially this latest buzz about how he blatanly lied in the last debate about the contraception mandate in Romneycare. Something fishy happened back in 2006 where he vetoed then re-instated a mandate against all religious organizations. No exemptions, is that right? It’s no wonder his campaign and the establishment want to wrap this up before too many facts come out about him. Once we get stuck with him, there’s no way to dump him no matter what gets exposed. I feel I can trust Santorum and I like a lot of what he stands for. As a matter of fact, of all of them he’s the one that offers many contrasts and terrific alternatives to the other side. I’d be enthusiatic voting and campaining for him, which is not the same with the others.

mozalf on March 9, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Anyone who supports Santorum, are you really okay with his stated positions on social issues. Are you okay with his quotes about various social issues that others have posted and are easy to find?

The reality is most of America would not be okay with what he has said.

jazzmo on March 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

No, I don’t agree with him on his social positions for the most part, but I totally agree with him on federalism. Romney’s whole defense of Romneycare is based on federalism.

It is amazing what liberal indoctrination has done. As long as yall have bedroom freedom the masses are lulled to sleep. Apparently someone making you buy health insurance and making you pay for other’s health insurance on a state level is the “epitome of freedom.”

Don’t take away our contraception- all the while the thief is in your pocket taking your money.. UGH!

With a show of hands – how many of you Santorum supporters have been supporting him since the start? Well, who was your first choice, second choice, third choice > Palin, Trump, Cain, Newt, Perry, then Newt again? How many politicos did you rally for who weren’t even running? Is Santorum the bottom of the barrel now? Is your dislike for Mitt Romney really worth an Obama 2nd term?

I have been ABO since the beginning of the primary season. Romney has always been my last choice. Just because Mittwits are loyal doesn’t mean we all suddenly have to bow to the alter or Romney.

Besides as a conservative, I have been told by a lot of you Mittwits that you don’t need my vote. Romney is going to get independents and moderates in so many numbers; that my vote is inconsequential..

melle1228 on March 9, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Mitt Romney is still a Democrat. Obama will clean his clock.

Pragmatic on March 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I think you might be right, especially come to find out he has been lying about his support for a federal individual mandate…

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 11:59 AM

.

Don’t you fret none- SCOTUS will decide …what is and what should never be.

FlaMurph on March 9, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Oh, Bama girls.

Rusty Allen on March 9, 2012 at 12:05 PM

For political junkies, I would say this coming Tuesday is more important than Super Tuesday…

If Newt can win both states, he will stay in and this race will drag on…

If Newt loses either state, his campaign says he will not be a “credible candidate” IE drop out…

If Newt drops out this early, I don’t think Romney can beat Santorum 1 on 1 as shown by the Missouri beauty contest where Romney lost by 30 points…

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 12:06 PM

No. Ed is correct with these Rasmussen numbers there’s no spinning. To illustate it in terms of your “3 in 10″ example – divide 10 by 3.
whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Heh?
MarkCasper on March 9, 2012 at 12:03 PM

If you work out that equation you’ll find that you can’t get a much closer 3-way race – it’s “3 in 10″ for any candidate. i.e. the not-Mitts are statistically on par with Mitt.

whatcat on March 9, 2012 at 12:08 PM

I just heard a clip on the radio of Santorum giving a crowd his version of a Paula Deen-esque “Hey ya’ll!”

Brat on March 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Ouch. I hope you were in a bar when you heard it.

BettyRuth on March 9, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Equation?

Rusty Allen on March 9, 2012 at 12:09 PM

For political junkies, I would say this coming Tuesday is more important than Super Tuesday…

If Newt can win both states, he will stay in and this race will drag on…

If Newt loses either state, his campaign says he will not be a “credible candidate” IE drop out…

If Newt drops out this early, I don’t think Romney can beat Santorum 1 on 1 as shown by the Missouri beauty contest where Romney lost by 30 points…

That’s the Rick Santorum talking points.

Newt is not dropping out no matter what. He is in it until Texas. His campaign isn’t saying he will drop out if he does not win both states.

What if Newt lose and Romney win both? Does it mean that Santorum drop out too?

Santorum better be careful on his fight to flush Newt out…Romney may end up flushing them both

jules on March 9, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Even though I am a reluctant Romney supporter, I had to post this:

Everyone should see it. Kinda brutal. Mind it, Karl Denninger is not a politician by any measure.

Archivarix on March 9, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I doubt Mitt even knows who Jeff Foxworthy is

lol

gerrym51 on March 9, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Another reason to vote for Mitt.

You might be a hack comedian if you write more than twelve books on how you might be a redneck.

EricW on March 9, 2012 at 12:12 PM

A three way tie in a southern neighboring state? I dont see that as a great victory for Newt.

ldbgcoleman on March 9, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Please take the time to read and bookmark this l-o-n-g piece on Axelrod and his ties to the CPUSA, “progressives,” and front groups. It spells out, too, why Axelrod is so anxious to have Romney be the contender against Obama.

The piece is well-researched and compelling.
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/03/09/david-axelrod-lefty-lumberjack

onlineanalyst on March 9, 2012 at 12:14 PM

ARG poll for Mississippi:

Newt 35
Mitt 31
Rick 20
Paul 7

Looks like Newt is hanging in there! :)

Midwesterner on March 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Midwesterner on March 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

That is surprisingly close for Romney.

If Romney stayed close, he’ll come out with not that great a delegate differential from AL and MS.

galtani on March 9, 2012 at 12:15 PM

It will be funny to see Mitt standing at the podium Tuesday night with a baseball cap with the NASCAR logo and Lyrnyd Skynrd playing in the background as he enjoys the applause for winning Alabama….

Santy can claim a moral victory

Bradky on March 9, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Rick Santorum has won 8 states across the country and competed well in the others. Newt Gingrich has won 2 states, one his home and both in the southeast. He came in 3rd or 4th in the rest of the 10 Super Tuesday states. Rick Santorum should not be expected to get out of the way for Newt Gingrich to lose to Mitt Romney.

The voters planning to vote for Newt Gingrich should seriously consider whether they want this primary contest to continue or not. Gingrich can stay in but he’s not going to be competitive after losing TN and OK badly. Rick Santorum has a slim chance to make this contest competitive but if he loses next Tuesday that chance evaporates.

Newt has more allocated delegates according to the RNC delegate count (and MSNBC which only tally the allocate ddelegates, not those non binding from beauty contests).

Is it about delegates or wins? Newt is ahead of Santorum in delegates count….

jules on March 9, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I’d still take Alabama over Wisconsin, at least Alabamatonianites have teeth.

Bishop on March 9, 2012 at 11:15 AM

LOL, you know MC will be here soon:-)

bluefox on March 9, 2012 at 12:19 PM

MGardner on March 9, 2012 at 11:49 AM

This is what scares me. The people voting for Santorum really don’t know his history or what he stands for.

Major story here: Romney very competitive in the South. I wonder how much Newt would beat Santorum by if it was a 1 on 1 between the two…

1984 in real life on March 9, 2012 at 12:19 PM

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