Gallup: Unemployment now up over 9%

posted at 12:10 pm on March 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official unemployment report for the month of February, but we have two previews this week to use as a gauge.  First, the ADP report predicts a net growth of 216,000 jobs in the private sector, improved from last month’s ADP report and about in line with the official January results from the BLS:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 216,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated advance in employment from December to January was revised slightly upwards to 173,000 from the initially reported 170,000.

Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 170,000 in February, and employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 46,000 in February.  Manufacturing employment increased 21,000.

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 20,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 88,000 in February. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 108,000 that same period. Of the 108,000 jobs created by small businesses, 18,000 jobs were created by the goods producing sector and 90,000 jobs were created by the service-producing sector.

Last month, ADP’s prediction got close to the official results for job growth.  That’s not an entirely normal event; ADP is frequently off in its predictions based on its payroll-service records.  Gallup has a little better track record, and their latest surveys predict a rise in unemployment:

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.1% in February from 8.6% in January and 8.5% in December.

The 0.5-percentage-point increase in February compared with January is the largest such month-to-month change Gallup has recorded in its not-seasonally adjusted measure since December 2010, when the rate rose 0.8 points to 9.6% from 8.8% in November. A year ago, Gallup recorded a February increase of 0.4 percentage points, to 10.3% from 9.9% in January 2011.

In addition to the 9.1% of U.S. workers who are unemployed, 10.0% are working part time but want full-time work. This percentage is similar to the 10.1% in January, but is higher than the 9.6% of February 2011.

Gallup’s surveys are similar in nature to those done by the BLS to determine its employment figures, although performed at different intervals.  This should result in a better predictive model than ADP’s, but strictly speaking, they measure two different if related trends.  Still, it’s difficult to net that many new jobs and still experience the spike shown in Gallup’s surveys over the last month, as seen in this chart:

I’ll predict that the jobless rate goes up to 8.6%, with 95,000 jobs added in tomorrow’s report.


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Bush’s fault.

ctmom on March 8, 2012 at 12:12 PM

But, but, butt…the MSM said his polocies are starting to make a CHANGE!

KOOLAID2 on March 8, 2012 at 12:12 PM

first? and obama sucks.

GhoulAid on March 8, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Only Republican presidents can be held responsible for things like unemployment and gasoline prices.

/MSM

mankai on March 8, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Unfortunately, the Gallup numbers get little or no play with the MSM.

matthew8787 on March 8, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Nonsense. We will create a massive 100,000 jobs – much better than the four trillion jobs lost during the Bush Administration while unemployment will plunge to 7.5 percent, just where it is necessary for reelection of our Fuhrer in chief. Just wait. Over the next eight months some 600,000 jobs will be created with a drop in unemployment down to 2 percent, a record for any president running for reelection.

Smedley on March 8, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Gallup may have unemployment at 9%, but the real umemployment rate is around 18%

then, tomorrow when the so called Bureau of Labor Fraudulent Stats comes up with the figure, they will say 8.1% not including the ones who left the labor force

never saw this fudging of numbers from Reagan to Bush 43….

nparga23 on March 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

The Hussein Regime’s number will be down from the current fabricated unemployment rate.

wildcat72 on March 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

85k new jobs and a jump of .3% to the UE rate would send the bond market hurtling upwards…so if you are thinking about refinancing your home, this would be really good news, and a good time to lock your interest rate.

DrW on March 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

“What ever you do…

… DO NOT MAKE A POLITICAL COMMERCIAL AGAINST OBOWMA!!!

NEVER… EVER…!

…. Carry on.” – Mittens

Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

“Minor setback for the recovery.” You will hear those words over and over and over again.

The Count on March 8, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Blame Bush in 3, 2, 1…

Philly on March 8, 2012 at 12:16 PM

When the economy starts to improve, people who have given up often get back into the job market, adding to the unemployment figures.

This phenomenon is also known as “schadenfreude”

Immolate on March 8, 2012 at 12:16 PM

They’ll drop the number tomorrow, make dear leader look good

cmsinaz on March 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

and I am sure Diane Sawyer will be sprinting to the anchor desk at ABC tonite to report the news /s

hillsoftx on March 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I just read in the legacy pop media that despite higher initial claims, it’s still Full Happy Days mode.

Prediction. Unemployment rate down to 8.1% as another million just up and decided they didn’t want to work anyway.

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I expect more BS from the BLS tomorrow.

Remember Gallup polls 30,000 families every week, the BLS polls 60,000 families one week out of every month. Their polling data could miss a trend by as much as a whole month. With seasonal adjustments there are just too many ways to massage the numbers. No matter what the BLS says tomorrow, the glaring fact remains that the participation rate is the lowest in 30 years.

MJZZZ on March 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

+1 Mankai

cmsinaz on March 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

nparga23 on March 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Gotta be quicker to the punch typing out my posts! Great minds and all…

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Bush’s fault?

Nah….Rush’s fault.

BobMbx on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Over the next eight months some 600,000 jobs will be created with a drop in unemployment down to 2 percent, a record for any president running for reelection.

Smedley on March 8, 2012 at 12:14 PM

The trick is to count squirrels as “employed.”

Happy Nomad on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Foreshadowing?

I doubt it.

forest on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

The Obama administration has made several tactical errors recently and this cooking of the BLS numbers is one of them. They started too soon. They needed the poll bump, no doubt, but they’ll need it more in September and October. Unfortunately for them, you can only hold a basketball underwater for so long before it escapes your pressing hands. That basketball will erupt from the water in the coming months.

It’s a littler surprising, actually, that this much vaunted team of campaigners are making such an amateurish mistake. But it’s not the only one they’re making. The pushing of the Sandra Fluke/Rush Limbaugh/contraception story is going to cost them the senate seat in Massachusettes. Brown is up 9 and not in small part to his gaining Catholic support.

I always thought the Obama people got too much credit for brilliance in 2008. I think they’re going to get the opposite this time around.

MaxMBJ on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Matthew only when their polls favor dear leader, otherwise they are just crayons

cmsinaz on March 8, 2012 at 12:20 PM

If Gallup has it at 9.1%, in reality it must be way higher.

Count all the officially registered numbers and it’s at least 15%.

The lefties hate the laborers, while their looters, Obama on top of the hill, live like millio- and billionaires.

Same hypocrisy on the Keystone pipeline. Obama says he’s for it and then lobbies the seanators personally against it.

Liar, Liar, Liar…truest thing ever said about him.

Schadenfreude on March 8, 2012 at 12:20 PM

SQUIRREL!!

CurtZHP on March 8, 2012 at 12:20 PM

I’ll predict that the jobless rate goes up to 8.6%, with 95,000 jobs added in tomorrow’s report.

WRONG!!!

It will be down to 8.4%. By election time it will be around 7.8% or lower.

Of course, if we are looking at real unemployment and not Obama’s fantasy world, then we are much higher around 14-18%. But it would be racist for me to use the real numbers.

jeffn21 on March 8, 2012 at 12:21 PM

I don’t know about this new math. Or maybe I should say this nuanced math. Doesn’t unemployment include everyone who wants a job but can’t get one, whether they’ve stopped trying or not?

Let’s stop kidding ourselves and start beating up the administration on the real unemployment. 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 who want a job cannot get one. And of those, how many have jobs who are underemployed? How many middle management types do we have working at Sam’s and Walmart as greeters instead of doing the jobs they were trained to do?

This declaration of less than 10 percent unemployment is a farce, pure and simple.

Tennman on March 8, 2012 at 12:22 PM

I’ll predict that the jobless rate goes up to 8.6%, with 95,000 jobs added in tomorrow’s report.

I guess it falls on me to be the contrarian – thanks to an unprecedented number of February “early-retirements”, the unemployment rate will drop to 8.1%, with the same 95K jobs added. The ObamiNation will get to 7.5% unemployment by September by hook or by crook (but mostly by crook).

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Eh, they still have plenty of time to manipulate the numbers back down before November. The LSM will speak nothing of the number going back up anyway. They have to get their leader re-elected.

JennM111 on March 8, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Gallup’s numbers (gotten by actually polling actual people) are generally much more realistic (i.e. unfriendly to Obama) than the official BLS numbers.

HitNRun on March 8, 2012 at 12:26 PM

It will be down to 8.4%. By election time it will be around 7.8% or lower.

Of course, if we are looking at real unemployment and not Obama’s fantasy world, then we are much higher around 14-18%. But it would be racist for me to use the real numbers.

jeffn21 on March 8, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Two points of order:

- There’s 5 a’s in “raaaaacist”.
- The Janary seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.3%.

Oh, and if one were to include everybody who wanted a job but were not counted as part of the labor force (not just those who last looked between 5 and 52 weeks prior to the middle of the month making up the U-5 number), unemployment would have been 11.9% last month, higher than any point from the start of the ability to calculate that in 1994 and March 2009.

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:28 PM

The OBAMA RECESSION, you BONE it you OWN it.

Chip on March 8, 2012 at 12:28 PM

They will cook the numbers right through November.

FruitedPlain on March 8, 2012 at 12:28 PM

but-but Dear Leader said everything is OK……………….Next thing you’ll tell me is the Seas didn’t fall!

vietvet68 on March 8, 2012 at 12:29 PM

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I swear I didn’t see your comment before I posted mine. HONEST!

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:29 PM

nparga23 on March 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

I guess 8.1% U-3 after thorough cooking is the Hot Air Commenter consensus.

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Bush’s fault?

Nah….Rush’s fault.

BobMbx on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Convenient for them to only have change one letter.

Chip on March 8, 2012 at 12:32 PM

But what about the Republican’s “War on Women!”…?

/

Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Time for Holder’s DOJ to pay a little visit to Gallup headquarters, I think. Explain the Chicago way of doing things to them. That knife-gun thingy.

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 12:33 PM

We need hearings about these radio hosts that call innocent people sluts!

KOOLAID2 on March 8, 2012 at 12:33 PM

For all you people blaming Bush, you couldn’t be more wrong! It’s all Scott Walker’s fault! Just ask the WI dimocrats.

roosterman on March 8, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Erick Erickson must be butthurt after realizing the economy isn’t fixing itself.

RINO on March 8, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Yeah, forget Gallup and the others. Check these sites for the real unemployment rate which is the U6.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

stukinIL4now on March 8, 2012 at 12:36 PM

If we’ve learned one thing during this downturn, it’s that our methodology for measuring unemployment sucks.

Dee2008 on March 8, 2012 at 12:36 PM

I swear I didn’t see your comment before I posted mine. HONEST!

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:29 PM

I swear I didn’t see the one before mine. ;-)

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Only Republican presidents can be held responsible for things like unemployment and gasoline prices.

/MSM

mankai on March 8, 2012 at 12:13 PM

/Romney

preallocated on March 8, 2012 at 12:37 PM

You guys didn’t get the memo?

In the age of Obama it’s “Funemployment”

Deafdog on March 8, 2012 at 12:38 PM

women, children, and owe’bama hardest hit…

Dr. Demento on March 8, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Man, that Obama sure is a nice guy isn’t he? – Romney

lorien1973 on March 8, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Yeah, but Rush called that bimbo a slut…so there…and shut up!

Oldnuke on March 8, 2012 at 12:42 PM

My only concern is that the unemployed have unfettered access to free birth control.

/

mankai on March 8, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Only Republican presidents can be held responsible for things like unemployment and gasoline prices.
/MSM Mitt Romney
mankai on March 8, 2012 at 12:13 PM

fify

besser tot als rot on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Employment-Population Ratio Correlated with Political Party of Majority Control

Now let’s use Obama’s car in the ditch analogy…

2007-2012: (D)emocrat majority (D)rives into ditch and stays there.

What do we need?

Election results so strong in November 2012 that we can start 2013 off right and…

… in 2013: (R)epublicans (R)everse to get back out of the ditch.

(R)everse and (R)epeal Obamacare.

(R)everse and (R)epeal Dodd-Frank.

(R)everse and (R)epeal the Community Reinvestment Act.

ITguy on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

And the right wing commenters here and all over the USA will rejoice to hear the rise in unemployment. All because they think it will help the used car salesman Romney.

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

preallocated on March 8, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Beat me to it.

besser tot als rot on March 8, 2012 at 12:44 PM

(R)everse and (R)epeal Obamacare.
(R)everse and (R)epeal Dodd-Frank.
(R)everse and (R)epeal the Community Reinvestment Act.
ITguy on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Romney won’t do any of that.

besser tot als rot on March 8, 2012 at 12:46 PM

(R)everse and (R)epeal Obamacare.

(R)everse and (R)epeal Dodd-Frank.

(R)everse and (R)epeal the Community Reinvestment Act.

ITguy on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Good luck getting (R)onmey to follow through on these.

mankai on March 8, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Bush’s fault.

ctmom on March 8, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I know you’re just foreshadowing the left’s response, but let’s talk about it anyway…

People need to stop looking at the Presidential transition in January 2009 and focus on when the balance of power transitioned from majority Republican to majority Democrat in January 2007.

When you compare December 2006 (when Republicans last had majority control) to now, you see how much of a ditch the Democrats have driven us into.

ITguy on March 8, 2012 at 12:47 PM

And the right wing commenters here and all over the USA will rejoice to hear the rise in unemployment. All because they think it will help the used car salesman Romney.

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

D- Good spelling. Otherwise, needs lots of work. Try again next week.

Paul-Cincy on March 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Romney won’t do any of that.

besser tot als rot on March 8, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Good luck getting (R)onmey to follow through on these.

mankai on March 8, 2012 at 12:46 PM

I agree.
Which is why Romney can’t be our nominee.

ITguy on March 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

But, but but I get free raspberry flavored diaphram jelly!

eyedoc on March 8, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Obama will blame this on the “do nothing” Congress and will be ISD by the MSM in his efforts to do so.

Charlemagne on March 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

/

Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 12:33 PM

What about the Democrat’s War on liberty?

Chip on March 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Who cares? What really matters is that a radio host called a law student a bad name.

BadgerHawk on March 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

All the left winger commenters will be pleased because more people will be enslaved to the government.

lorien1973 on March 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Funemployment my arse. I need a JOB!

Going from having 2 jobs and being able to sock away maybe an extra 50-100 per month after all my bills (if that) to having NO JOBS in the space of 2 weeks stinks on ice.

Wish me luck on my interviews today!

SgtSVJones on March 8, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Great news for Real America. Keep hoping for bad news, Patriots!

/KeninCT

Nick_Angel on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

What about the Democrat’s War on liberty?

Chip on March 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Why do you hate the black man?

/sesquipedouchebag

Lanceman on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Great news for Real America. Keep hoping for bad news, Patriots!

/KeninCT

Nick_Angel on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Sorry, racefans. Heartache.

Lanceman on March 8, 2012 at 1:00 PM

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

True Independents, lolz.
Yes you’re all individuals no one tells you how to think. You independents are independent thinkers thinking independent thoughts in your own independent way.
It’s much easier to not consider the long term systemic effects of unemployment or the number manipulation that hides the real numbers by thinking independently.

batterup on March 8, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 20,000, and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 88,000 in February. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 108,000 that same period.

Look where the jobs are coming from.

Hey, let’s increase income taxes on small business owners, and let’s introduce all those Obamacare taxes increases, too.

Check out this chart of the taxes increases to come:

http://rubinontax.blogspot.com/2012/02/do-you-realize-how-much-federal-taxes.html

BuckeyeSam on March 8, 2012 at 1:07 PM

I’ll predict that the jobless rate goes up to 8.6%, with 95,000 jobs added in tomorrow’s report.

which only means it’ll get revised upward again in about two weeks and closer to gallup’s estimate. Again.

Speaking of which, I don’t recall any threads on mid-month revisions for January and February. Did they not get announced or too much other stuff?

AH_C on March 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I think leftist cowards who hide behind the independent label are, well, cowards. OK, I’ll agree and give you stupid, also.

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Nick_Angel on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Throw in something about web cam performances and eating the chicken while naked, and you could be downright scary!

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM

And the right wing commenters here and all over the USA will rejoice to hear the rise in unemployment. All because they think it will help the used car salesman Romney.

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

No, in truth, it’s a situation in which we have to stand by as we watch markets respond to inept policies. You comment as if the one and only different in the health of the economy is the party in the WH when, instead, it’s the difference in policies promoted and pursued.

Watching Obama push his green utopia and wealth redistribution is kind of like watching a 5-year-old learn how to tie his own shoe–it’s painful if you have some place you need to be, like economic recovery.

P.S. Thanks for the housing bubble created by the liberals in Congress and the White House over the years who just had to make sure that people who couldn’t pay debts got mortgages.

BuckeyeSam on March 8, 2012 at 1:15 PM

That’s it then. Gallup is racist and probably hates women too.

jukin3 on March 8, 2012 at 1:15 PM

I always thought the Obama people got too much credit for brilliance in 2008. I think they’re going to get the opposite this time around.

MaxMBJ on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

All President Obama needs to do is stay within 5 percentage points of the eventual GOP nominee in the weeks and days leading up to the election in order to make the theft of the election believable. That’s it, that’s all. I don’t for a moment believe President Obama and the cadre of hardcore radical socialists who plotted his acension to power will give up that power as the result of a free and fair election. The fix is in, in my view. The only thing for it is to catch them in the act.

troyriser_gopftw on March 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Whitewashing Obama

Schadenfreude on March 8, 2012 at 1:17 PM

And the right wing commenters here and all over the USA will rejoice to hear the rise in unemployment. All because they think it will help the used car salesman Romney.

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I wouldn’t say that at all. I would really dig it if the economy expanded and employment rose despite dear leader’s foolish policies. Then I may not give a crap about who won the presidential election…

…but then there’s the Marxist in him that wants to shred the Constitution, and that’s where I draw the line.

Turtle317 on March 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM

When does Obammy’s sock puppet, Jay Carney, hold a press conference to celebrate?

Polish Rifle on March 8, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Nick_Angel on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM
Throw in something about web cam performances and eating the chicken while naked, and you could be downright scary!

MNHawk on March 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM

You toothless bumpkins in flyover country are the heirs to George Washington, in that none of you had real teeth. Fly that flag high, Real America, but see a dentist once in a while!

/KeninCT

Nick_Angel on March 8, 2012 at 1:19 PM

I always thought the Obama people got too much credit for brilliance in 2008. I think they’re going to get the opposite this time around.
MaxMBJ on March 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

There was no brilliance.

Obama had the most favorable set of political circumstances of any out-party candidate for the presidency since 1932. Republicans had held the White House for eight years, Bush was deeply unpopular with ratings in the 20’s, and a perfectly timed pre-election financial crisis hit weeks before the election.

A circus tent full of incompetent buffoons could have won the election under those set of circumstances…..and they did.

Cavalry on March 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

No way Obama would allow a bad number. At worst the unemployment rate will stay the same.

Wigglesworth on March 8, 2012 at 1:23 PM

We’re looking for a good report tomorrow, possible +200K again in jobs created. Private sector number should be stronger, but the public sector is still losing jobs. The unemployment rate may tick up as more reenter the job hunt, but so far we have not seen that phenomenon. First-time claims bumped up slightly this week, but the 4-week average was basically flat. Markets are climbing based upon Greek debt swap deal and the possibility of a good jobs report tomorrow. Most of the economic reports we saw this month were good. We remain bullish.

TouchdownBuddha on March 8, 2012 at 1:23 PM

The big problem with the “improving” unemployment rate is that no one knows even ONE personal or OF even one person who has found a new, good job. And I live in the so-called “insulated against the economy” DC area. My recent college-degreed son is doing manual labor. His MBA friend is working part-time at a fish and bate shop. Everyone WITH a job can’t pay their bills and fill their tank and refrigerator (aren’t we just joyous that food and gas and electricity don’t count in the inflation rate? Otherwise, we’d really be in trouble.)

But Romney’s right. Obama is just a really nice guy who’s incompetent.

Portia46 on March 8, 2012 at 1:24 PM

You all must think the true independents are stupid.

Uppereastside on March 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I’ve found that most “independents” are hardly that. They are left-leaning Democrats who are ashamed to admit it. Progressives are pretty much the same. So yes, I think indepents are pretty stupid as a group. Otherwise it would be more than just Republicans and conservatives standing up and calling out this administration for all its failures. Where are those independent voices?

Happy Nomad on March 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

But Romney’s right. Obama is just a really nice guy who’s incompetent.

Portia46 on March 8, 2012 at 1:24 PM

DC is hardly “insulated” from this recession. Federal pay has been frozen for two years and reduction of both federal and government contract positions is looming.

That being said, I am going to be very angry if Romney gets the nomination and he turns into a redeux of John McCain’s campaign. I want a pitbull to go out after Obama for all his failures.

Happy Nomad on March 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Expect unemployment to drop about 1% per month until it’s a negative number by November 6, which Baghdad Jay Carney will attribute to all the folks who are multiple counted because they have three or four part time jobs, according to the WH Czar of Fuzzy Math. When asked how the number could be negative, Carney will draw comparison to their being more registered voters in Philly than citizens, and the lamesteams will nod their heads in approval of the brilliant analogy. In the Friday night news dump on November 9, there will be an unexpected minor adjustment of plus 10% to the unemployment rate.

MrKleenexMuscles on March 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

which only means it’ll get revised upward again in about two weeks and closer to gallup’s estimate. Again.

Speaking of which, I don’t recall any threads on mid-month revisions for January and February. Did they not get announced or too much other stuff?

AH_C on March 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM

January’s numbers were released last month, and haven’t been revised yet. February’s numbers will be released tomorrow.

October’s rate was initially reported as 9.0% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11042011.htm), November’s rate was initially reported as 8.6% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12022011.htm), and December’s rate was initially reported as 8.5% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01062012.htm).

October’s was revised downward from 9.0 to 8.9%, November’s was revised revised upward from 8.6 to 8.7%, and December’s remained the same at 8.5%: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01062012.htm.

If anything, the trend has been that revisions of these numbers look better after the revision, not worse. This table shows the revisions in the number of people employed (higher is better): http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm. Some revisions are higher, and some are lower, but overall the average revision in 2009, 2010, and 2011 has been a little bit higher (better). In 2008 the average revision was lower (worse).

tneloms on March 8, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Dontcha know? They have to destroy the economy before they can rebuild it in their Marxist image.

kirkill on March 8, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Yeah, forget Gallup and the others. Check these sites for the real unemployment rate which is the U6.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

stukinIL4now on March 8, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Even the U6 is fake. They manipulate that too. Look at shadowstats and search for the youngstown state study of defacto unemployment. Youngstown includes a couple groups that I would not, but just look at what is reported there and think about it.

The reality is we have nearly 30 million people out of work, most of whom gave up because there is no work. The ministry of happy economic news just refuses to count them.

Unfortunately, the populations of Obamavilles around the country increase evey month.

dogsoldier on March 8, 2012 at 1:46 PM

The only thing that worked was hiring census workers. Lets apply best practices and do a census re-do!!

seven on March 8, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I’m new here. Been waiting to register for 2 years, and finally got in with the last batch.

My prediction for tomorrow: unemployment will drop to 7.9%, with 150k jobs created. The labour force will further shrink by 1-2 million, and there will be much rejoicing (yay). Chris Matthews will faint from rapture, and Obama will have a press conference, asking Republicans “How’s my **** taste?”. Mitt Romney will give a speech praising the leadership of POTUS.

We are boned.

I am a pessimist, though.

DopLar on March 8, 2012 at 1:50 PM

It will be down to 8.4%. By election time it will be around 7.8% or lower.

jeffn21 on March 8, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Talk about lowered expectations. 7.8% even if it were correct is atrocious. This guy does live in a dream world, where all his decisions are right and just and everyone adores him.

Tommy_G on March 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM

It’ll be reported to be 8.2% or lower.

SouthernGent on March 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Bush’s fault.

ctmom on March 8, 2012 at 12:12 PM

That doesn’t fly any more. It’s the Republicans’ fault.

Hey, it’s their fault that 0 is not raising much money, why not unemplyment?

iurockhead on March 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM

going to depend on the manipulation participation rate

John Kettlewell on March 8, 2012 at 2:02 PM

tneloms on March 8, 2012 at 1:38 PM

thanks.

AH_C on March 8, 2012 at 2:09 PM

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