Alabama State University poll puts Santorum in lead

posted at 12:45 pm on March 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Rick Santorum gets some much-needed good news from a newly-released Alabama State University poll, conducted one week ago.  The results show that the race remains close in the state as its primary approaches on Tuesday, but Santorum maintains a narrow lead over Mitt Romney — and a big lead over Newt Gingrich:

The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University’s Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.

Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.

The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8 remained undecided and 15 percent saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.

The poll was conducted March 1, prior to the Super Tuesday vote that helped establish Romney and Santorum as leaders in the race for the nomination, with Romney holding a total of 415 delegates and Santorum with 176.

Although the latest poll data has not been posted to Alabama State’s website, one can find the previous poll data and track the trend.  One month earlier, Gingrich led the poll with 27% against only 16% for Romney and 9% for “Santorium.” By February 23rd, Gingrich and Santorum had gone into a virtual tie at 18.9/18.3, respectively.  In between, Santorum had a mediocre debate performance and lost four contests to Romney — and yet Santorum’s support rose in Alabama while Gingrich’s dropped precipitously in this series.

The Birmingham News notes another poll that puts Romney way in front in Alabama, 31.2/21.6 over Santorum, with Gingrich coming in just behind at 21.2%.  However, that poll was conducted by the Alabama Education Association, an affiliate of the NEA, the teachers union, which has its own axes to grind.  However, in both polls, Gingrich occupies third place, which puts his Southern strategy in peril almost before it gets started.  If the Alabama State poll proves accurate, Gingrich won’t have much reason to continue his bid past next Tuesday.

Update: Gingrich’s team points me to a poll result released today from Capital Survey Research Center that shows Gingrich in a close second in Alabama to Mitt Romney, 30/25, with Santorum in third at 20%.  I’ve never heard of this pollster, but that’s not necessarily dispositive, either; there are plenty of regional pollsters that don’t get national attention until state contests become national stories.  The results look fairly counterintuitive, though, and they still show Gingrich trailing by five against Romney — in the South.  I would call that an improvement over the Alabama State poll, but not by much.


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Well the GOP and their Oromneycare pundit machine will squelch this with “dumb rebels” innuendo.

Don L on March 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Cue the trolls to tell us Santorum is an uneletable, theocratic, big-government bigot who wants to take away our birthdays.

Lost in Jersey on March 8, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Ed being accused of Santi-partiality in 3, 2, 1…

Schadenfreude on March 8, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Poll was conducted a week ago prior to Super Tuesday. My gut says if Romney was within striking distance then he is gonna be in the lead in short order. If I were him I’d spend some money in AL and finally put the nail in the coffin of the any one but Mitt crowd.

tpw on March 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

If Rick and Newt would put country before any self, Mitt w/b over, alas…don’t invest your 401k on it.

Schadenfreude on March 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Hopefully, this pressure from Santorum supplies a few of the teams of draft horses it takes to drag Mitt kicking a screaming to the right a few inches. Pushing Mitt to the right is hard work.

RBMN on March 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Oh yeah, small sample size, over a week ago, results within the margin of error. Totally relevant.

Zaggs on March 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM

However, in both polls, Gingrich occupies third place, which puts his Southern strategy in peril almost before it gets started. If the Alabama State poll proves accurate, Gingrich won’t have much reason to continue his bid past next Tuesday.

I sort of thought Gingrich’s Southern Stragedy was toast when he neither won nor placed in Tennessee or Oklahoma.

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

I’ll wait for some more recent, more reputable polls thank you. That said, if Newt lets sweater vest beat him in neighboring southern states to GA, he has no business continuing.

davek70 on March 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Romney will not be winning the South.

VA is a write-off

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Wow… Santorum is only leading by 4? He’s got problems. This poll was taken BEFORE super Tuesday… Will Rick let another state slip through his fingers?

Midwesterner on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Is Alabama State University even accredited? Who cares?

Romney is winning the credible RealClearPolitics tracking poll: 38.0 Romney, 27.3 Santorum, 14.7 Gingrich, 11.3 Paul

And Romney is absolutely owning in the betting markets…
Betfair: 85.8 Romney, 6.0 Santorum, 1.5 Paul, 1.0 Gingrich
Intrade: 84.3 Romney, 4.1 Santorum, 1.8 Gingrich, 1.6 Paul

The race is over and has been over for a while. Romney has it locked up.

Lord on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

I’ll wait for some more recent, more reputable polls thank you. That said, if Newt lets sweater vest beat him in neighboring southern states to GA, he has no business continuing.

davek70 on March 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

If Newt gets out, It could get interesting.

Santorum will beat Willard in the south and Midwest one-on-one!!

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Southerners will break the doors down to get out and vote for Romney over Obama. Just wait and see.

Midwesterner on March 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.

O_O

JPeterman on March 8, 2012 at 12:55 PM

If Newt gets out, It could get interesting.

Santorum will beat Willard in the south and Midwest one-on-one!!

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Who is this and what have you done to the Commentariat’s favorite troll?

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:55 PM

If Newt gets out, It could get interesting.

Santorum will beat Willard in the south and Midwest one-on-one!!

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM
Who is this and what have you done to the Commentariat’s favorite troll?

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 12:55 PM

The mask dropped. Smell the coffee.

rhombus on March 8, 2012 at 12:58 PM

I would have thought it would be a much bigger lead in Alabama… looks like Romney has a chance even in the deep south.

BobScuba on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

March 8

Alabama Republican Presidential Primary

Alabama Education Assoc.

Romney 31
Santorum 22
Gingrich 21
Paul 7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

crash72 on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

crash72 on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

I believe Ed covered that already. Nice to see the actual liberals lining up for Robama (or is it Obamney; I get confused) as a bet hedge.

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

March 8

Alabama Republican Presidential Primary

Alabama Education Assoc.

Romney 31
Santorum 22
Gingrich 21
Paul 7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

crash72 on March 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Looks like that is only among teachers…

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/2012/03/08/mitt-romney-leads-rick-santorum-newt-gingrich-in-alabama-teachers-poll/

Midwesterner on March 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Ok, let’s play pretend with Ed that this isn’t over…keep it coming ed!

rubberneck on March 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

If the Alabama State poll proves accurate, Gingrich won’t have much reason to continue his bid past next Tuesday.

I agree but there is a very wealthy guy who will pay Newt to keep going until Romney is safely clear of a challenge from the right.

lexhamfox on March 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Hang in there Newt!

(did I do it right?)

Spannerhead on March 8, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Hang in there Newt…!!!

:)

Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Santorum and Gingrich cannot possibly win. By staying in and draining Romney’s resources and beating him up are they not aiding Obama?

Someone please explain to me the rationale for someone who simply cannot win staying in the race?

mitchellvii on March 8, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Good luck to Newt in Ala. and Miss. He needs those wins.

alwaysfiredup on March 8, 2012 at 1:03 PM

If Republicans in the south want an anti-gay bigot for POTUS who supports the criminalization of gay sex, to put it bluntly, then who are we to stop them? We’ll, I guess polls show that we’re the majority of people in American overall who are not homophobes.

It’s one thing to oppose special rights for gays but it’s over the line to make being gay illegal.

They say that it’s alright to outlaw gay sex on the grounds that there is no such thing as a ‘separation of church and state’, nor is there such a thing as a ‘right to privacy’, even in our bedrooms, and therefor it is perfectly constitutional for them to regulate bedroom behavior.

Santorum claims to be a champion of the Constitution, but when he speaks of liberty he means he wants the liberty to regulate what goes on between consenting adults in the privacy of their own bedroom.

FloatingRock on March 8, 2012 at 1:04 PM

conducted one week ago.

that’s all you need to know about this poll and the HA editorial staff’s decision to keep fluffing this race

gatorboy on March 8, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Lets look at the facts…

Romney lost Tennessee by 9 and South Carolina by 13…

Romney has no chance in the south, in fact his campaign has already admitted that…

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Looks like that is only among teachers…

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/2012/03/08/mitt-romney-leads-rick-santorum-newt-gingrich-in-alabama-teachers-poll/

Midwesterner on March 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

That is incorrect.

The telephone poll by the Alabama Education Association’s Capital Survey Research Center was conducted March 1, 5-6, and included 510 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

rubberneck on March 8, 2012 at 1:05 PM

If Romney had brains that he’s attributed with, his PAC would be running general election ads already. He pretty much locked in the nomination, and if he didn’t, a flow of anti-Obama ads won’t hurt his image among Republicans; in fact, quite the opposite is true. Continuing to play nasty with one’s own base is a dangerous path.

Archivarix on March 8, 2012 at 1:05 PM

…So while I understand why people don’t like Romney and will not vote for him, (I won’t either), it is laughable to think that Santorum will ever be POTUS with his extremist views.

He criticized Rick Perry earlier in the race for not being expert at anti-sodomy case law.

FloatingRock on March 8, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I agree but there is a very wealthy guy who will pay Newt to keep going until Romney is safely clear of a challenge from the right and Gingrich is the 2016 nominee.

lexhamfox on March 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

ReWrite™ engaged.

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 1:07 PM

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Ok, he’s not good in the south…well cept he won Florida and Virginia. Yeah, i know Newt and Rick were not on the ballots there, but that’s an indictment of their poorly managed campaigns.

rubberneck on March 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM

I realize an NEA-related poll may be viewed with some suspicion about bias, but I’m not sure why that would favor Romney over Santorum.

I think (and, please, don’t flame me on this..it’s just a perception) that Romney is generally viewed as the more electable candidate.

bobs1196 on March 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Proof that “social issues” do matter, sorry MittBots.

http://www.wallbuilders.com/LIBissuesArticles.asp?id=106938

PappyD61 on March 8, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Ok, he’s not good in the south…well cept he won Florida and Virginia. Yeah, i know Newt and Rick were not on the ballots there, but that’s an indictment of their poorly managed campaigns

Florida is coastal state, and in Virgina there was no one else on the ballot…

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Poll was conducted a week ago prior to Super Tuesday.

tpw on March 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

why do you suppose it’s the one Hotair picked. Besides the fact Santi is losing the more recent polls.

Ed is beyond predicable shilling for his boy.

hanzblinx on March 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Romney will not be winning the South.

VA is a write-off

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

And if you’re wrong again?

If Newt gets out, It could get interesting.

Santorum will beat Willard in the south and Midwest one-on-one!!

liberal4life on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

You don’t listen to Newt do you?

KOOLAID2 on March 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Hang in there Get out da race Newt…!!!

:)

Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 1:02 PM

FIFY.

PappyD61 on March 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Someone please explain to me the rationale for someone who simply cannot win staying in the race?

mitchellvii on March 8, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Ask Huckabee. As the “real” Christian, he stopped Romney from beating McCain in 08 and got a television program out of it.

rhombus on March 8, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Mitt McCain says these polls don’t matter…

…..and no he’s not going to blame the President for these bad Unemployment numbers. “I mean he’s doing the best he can, these are tough economic times”…….in 5….4….3…..

PappyD61 on March 8, 2012 at 1:13 PM

why do you suppose it’s the one Hotair picked. Besides the fact Santi is losing the more recent polls.

Ed is beyond predicable shilling for his boy.

hanzblinx on March 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

The other poll was conducted before Tuesday as well…

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Hang in there Newt!

Spannerhead on March 8, 2012 at 1:02 PM
Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Maybe you should start selling scarecrow effigies with this slogan.

Archivarix on March 8, 2012 at 1:13 PM

We need to keep all the candidates in the race because it makes them all tougher and allows a through vetting. Competition makes for a stronger candidate in the general. A contested convention is nothing to worry about.
I heard this from a much loved GOP pundit on Fox the other night. A Newt supporter, I believe.

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Just like Ohio!

Mr. Arkadin on March 8, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Santorum and Gingrich cannot possibly win. By staying in and draining Romney’s resources and beating him up are they not aiding Obama?

Someone please explain to me the rationale for someone who simply cannot win staying in the race?

mitchellvii on March 8, 2012 at 1:03 PM

That’s easy to explain. They get to draw very nice salaries and elevate their profile so that they can then get higher speaking fees, sometimes a nice cushy job with a lobbying or law firm, more time on news talk programs and maybe a nice gig on FOX etc. with their own half hour show. At some point it’s all about the ego and payola. I’ll say this much, the poll numbers do not look good for Newt especially more for Rick. The south is supposed to be Santorum’s strong hold. These polls were taken before Tuesday so it would be hard to imagine Santorum gainign ground, he might gain some from those who defect from Newt. But if Romney comes in a strong second in a state he is not expected to come close in, then it really is all over. Mathematically it already would be very hard for Rick or Newt to win anyway but it would be a final nail in an already shut coffin.

Minnfidel on March 8, 2012 at 1:15 PM

I realize an NEA-related poll may be viewed with some suspicion about bias, but I’m not sure why that would favor Romney over Santorum.

I think (and, please, don’t flame me on this..it’s just a perception) that Romney is generally viewed as the more electable candidate.

bobs1196 on March 8, 2012 at 1:08 PM

We should be skeptical of it but I think the reason for it will depend on the personal biases of the reader. If you think Mitt is awful it’s the NEA trying to make him look inevitable and depress anti-Mitt turnout next week. If you like Mitt then it’s the NEA trying to make him look strong before a primary he’s sure to lose so Santorum and/or Newt can have the kind of come from behind victory Mitt had in Ohio on Tuesday.

So pick which one of those explanations better fits for you and go with it.

alchemist19 on March 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM

If Newt gets out, I am not going Santorum, and I’m not alone. So STFU about how Newt should drop in favor of Santorum.

Sekhmet on March 8, 2012 at 1:17 PM

We need to keep all the candidates in the race because it makes them all tougher and allows a through vetting. Competition makes for a stronger candidate in the general. A contested convention is nothing to worry about.
I heard this from a much loved GOP pundit on Fox the other night. A Newt supporter, I believe.

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM

We need to keep the process going./

***snort***

JPeterman on March 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Lets look at the facts…

There are two polls, both with a small sample size, both taken before Super Tuesday, one says Romney and one says Santorum….

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Um…am I the only one who’s surprised to find that Romney actually HAS a chance of winning in Alabama? I thought this race was completely and utterly beyond him.

Wouldn’t it have to be considered a major upset if Romney were to win a Deep South primary?

Esoteric on March 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Newt~ I like you, man, but get the hell out and clear the playing field so that the annoying “the Republicans are a fractured party” narrative can go away, and we can get on with the business of bringing coherence to the message and the constituency, and vote out the current residents of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. You were awesome as Speaker of the House, and you’re wicked smart, but you don’t have a realistic chance of the nomination. (You would be a killer Chief-of-Staff.) So, let’s stop slogging through this endless primary process and get on with choosing a nominee so that we can produce a cogent conservative message of job creation, smaller government, and fiscal responsibility.

Sincerely,
A fellow academic

College Prof on March 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

A contested convention is nothing to worry about.

Actually it is. First of all any candidate who makes it to a brokered convention is so bloodied that they are inefective in the GE. More importantly in the last century the three times that there has been a brokered convention that party has lost. It’s a stupid thing to wish for a brokered convention. It’s a suicide pact.

Minnfidel on March 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

I don’t buy this the math doesn’t add up stuff, I think Romney folks are scared to face Santorum one on one…

THE FACT IS WHEN SANTORUM AND ROMNEY WENT 1 ON 1 ROMNEY LOST BY 30 POINTS…

These are facts, no spin…

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I heard this from a much loved GOP pundit on Fox the other night. A Newt supporter, I believe.

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM

.
Share the big boy pants perhaps?

FlaMurph on March 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Um…am I the only one who’s surprised to find that Romney actually HAS a chance of winning in Alabama? I thought this race was completely and utterly beyond him.

Wouldn’t it have to be considered a major upset if Romney were to win a Deep South primary?

Esoteric on March 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Wasn’t Romney trailing bad in Michigan and then Ohio too?

rhombus on March 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

FIFY. I have my head stuck up my a%%…!

PappyD61 on March 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Fixed if for ‘ya, skippy…

Seven Percent Solution on March 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Lets look at the facts…

There are two polls, both with a small sample size, both taken before Super Tuesday, one says Romney and one says Santorum….

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM

To paraphrase an old saying, spin makes it around the world twice before the dose of sanity gets its shoes tied.

Steve Eggleston on March 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Sad to see such a great commenter fall so easily for a weasel.

Schadenfreude on March 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Santy is almost always in the lead lately…until the actual primary vote.

KOOLAID2 on March 8, 2012 at 1:23 PM

I’ll be surprised if Romney wins there. IF he does (a big if, I think), then I think this is well and truly over. He’d shatter the meme that he can’t win the South, with a state that ought to be Santy territory.

changer1701 on March 8, 2012 at 1:23 PM

I’d be surprised if Romney won Alabama but he’s positioned himself so that a “silver medal” will be devastating too.

rhombus on March 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Um…am I the only one who’s surprised to find that Romney actually HAS a chance of winning in Alabama? I thought this race was completely and utterly beyond him.

Wouldn’t it have to be considered a major upset if Romney were to win a Deep South primary?

Esoteric on March 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

I was shocked to see that he was even close or ahead in the other poll, even more shocking was that the polls were before Super Tuesday.

Minnfidel on March 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Minnfidel on March 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Well,..yeah. Makes me wonder about an agenda, IYKWIMAITYD.

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Hang in there Mitt…!!!

The Count on March 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Don’t worry about bias in the teachers union poll. If their bias were reflected, each Republican candidate would have received 0 percent.

MaxMBJ on March 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Is Alabama State University even accredited? Who cares?

Romney is winning the credible RealClearPolitics tracking poll: 38.0 Romney, 27.3 Santorum, 14.7 Gingrich, 11.3 Paul

And Romney is absolutely owning in the betting markets…
Betfair: 85.8 Romney, 6.0 Santorum, 1.5 Paul, 1.0 Gingrich
Intrade: 84.3 Romney, 4.1 Santorum, 1.8 Gingrich, 1.6 Paul

The race is over and has been over for a while. Romney has it locked up.

Lord on March 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Charming. No, why would anyone expect a state university to be accredited?

/sarc

Romney supporters showing their true colors again?

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Sad to see such a great commenter fall so easily for a weasel.

Schadenfreude on March 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

:)

a capella on March 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

I wish someone would comment on the issue of having a Convention, the last week in August without a candidate. It gives the nominee exactly 5 weeks to mount a campaign when you consider early voting in many states starts in October. It’s too late for those voters to change their minds. Danger abounds on this site without realization that Romney is the only candidate that can win the nomination before the convention. Why on earth would anyone see value in keeping this process going on to the convention, where if Romney is short 200 votes, he need only convince Ron Paul and perhaps Santorum (never Gingrich the egotistical bag of hot air) to give him the nomination anyway? However, by then it will be worthless. The sooner this thing is over the better and the candidate is Romney and he happens to be the only one that can beat Obama anyway. If he has a Republican Senate and House, he will most certainly carry on with conservative principals or he would end up fighting his own party. Stop worrying about him and worry about winning the election or have 4 more years of the current occupant which would be a disaster for the country.

jake22 on March 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

If Santorum is only leading Alabama by 4, he’s in trouble.

Even if Santorum narrowly wins Alabama, what is the net delegate haul over Romney if the top vote getter is only in the mid 30′s? 6 delegates total?

If Santorum takes both Mississippi and Alabama, it still comes nowhere near what Romney took in Virginia.

BradTank on March 8, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Santorum and Gingrich cannot possibly win. By staying in and draining Romney’s resources and beating him up are they not aiding Obama?

Someone please explain to me the rationale for someone who simply cannot win staying in the race?

mitchellvii on March 8, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Why not direct your question to someone who truly has no chance to win? I refer, of course, to Ron Paul. Why is he even running?

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:30 PM

If Republicans in the south want an anti-gay bigot for POTUS who supports the criminalization of gay sex, to put it bluntly, then who are we to stop them? We’ll, I guess polls show that we’re the majority of people in American overall who are not homophobes.

It’s one thing to oppose special rights for gays but it’s over the line to make being gay illegal.

They say that it’s alright to outlaw gay sex on the grounds that there is no such thing as a ‘separation of church and state’, nor is there such a thing as a ‘right to privacy’, even in our bedrooms, and therefor it is perfectly constitutional for them to regulate bedroom behavior.

Santorum claims to be a champion of the Constitution, but when he speaks of liberty he means he wants the liberty to regulate what goes on between consenting adults in the privacy of their own bedroom.

FloatingRock on March 8, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Since Santorum never said any such thing, your post is pointless except as an example of the Big Lie.

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Birmingham News, in reporting the AEA poll result , did not say it polled only teachers.

But even if we were to accept the poll result only from this selective thread Ed chose from a week ago before Romney took 6 out of 10 races, to spin a purported Santorum lead. It should give Santorum cold comfort that his lead was 4 points in a state where the delegates will be awarded proportionately.

galtani on March 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Hang in there Mitt…!!!

The Count on March 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

LOL

MGardner on March 8, 2012 at 1:32 PM

What a lot of you seem to be missing is that Santorum’s rise in the polls has come almost entirely from Gingrich supporters. Romney holds at a steady minority. This suggests that a) Gingrich supporters are beginning to give up on him and b) those Gingrich supporters who are giving up on him are swinging almost universally to Santorum.

Now, it’s possible that Gingrich’s win in Georgia will undercut this momentum. It’s also possible that people will look at Gingrich’s wins in Georgia and South Carolina, and decide that it’s just too late.

Neither scenario is good for Romney, but the second one is quite bad for Romney. If it comes down to a two-man (plus cranky-pants) race, then Romney’s path to the nomination will get much more complicated.

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:39 PM

jake22 on March 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

I remember thinking in ’08, that if the GOP convention had been pushed back to the end of July that Palin would have had more time to prepare herself. And if the VP pick had been announced prior to that, the onslaught of attacks against her could have been better addressed if the GOP had had more time and knowledge of her nomination.

So I agree with you that supporting a longer process or even a brokered convention seems to be illogical to me.

Texas Gal on March 8, 2012 at 1:45 PM

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:39 PM

.
Regional candidates are just that.
And the South is red red red and will go big ABO in November.

FlaMurph on March 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Guys, still plenty of time to avoid the Romney train wreck. Go, Rick!

mozalf on March 8, 2012 at 1:53 PM

If he has a Republican Senate and House, he will most certainly carry on with conservative principals or he would end up fighting his own party. Stop worrying about him and worry about winning the election or have 4 more years of the current occupant which would be a disaster for the country.

jake22 on March 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

I take it that you’ve blotted 2002-2006 from your memory. I don’t blame you, but the notion that Myrtle the Turtle and Speaker Crybaby will hold Mittens’ feet to the fire on conservative issues is clueless, at best.

ebrown2 on March 8, 2012 at 1:54 PM

This campaign season has shown some ugly truths about Hot Air writers. Ed and Tina have shown they can be every bit as manipulative and shady as your typical MSM figure.

AngusMc on March 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

This campaign season has shown some ugly truths about Hot Air writerscommentators. Ed and TinaMittbots have shown they can be every bit as manipulative and shady as your typical MSM figureObama Zombie.

AngusMc on March 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

FIFY

ebrown2 on March 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:39 PM

.
Regional candidates are just that.
And the South is red red red and will go big ABO in November.

FlaMurph on March 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Sounds like an excuse to cover up the fact that Romney has treated the Republican base with something very near to contempt. No Republican will win the general election unless they sweep the South. And if any Republican candidate has ever had a shot at losing the Southern states, it’s the Flipper.

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Since Santorum never said any such thing, your post is pointless except as an example of the Big Lie.

tom on March 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

You’re wrong, Santorum is on the record supporting anti-sodomy laws and criticized Rick Perry earlier in the race for not being an expert on a case in Texas in which two gays were arrested and prosecuted for sodomy.

Santorum supports laws outlawing sodomy; or put a more modern way, Santorum supports the criminalization of gay sex.

There’s no way he is viable nationally.

FloatingRock on March 8, 2012 at 2:04 PM

If Newt gets out, I am not going Santorum, and I’m not alone. So STFU about how Newt should drop in favor of Santorum.

Sekhmet on March 8, 2012 at 1:17 PM

All polling shows that the overwhelming majority of Newt’s supporters, 60 plus percent, would go to Santorum but only about a quarter of Santorum’s voters would go to Newt.

Rick is the anti Mitt/Newt candidate.

fight like a girl on March 8, 2012 at 2:04 PM

He’d shatter the meme that he can’t win the South, with a state that ought to be Santy territory.

changer1701 on March 8, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Oddly enough, Alabama is not as evangelical as you’de think. A lot of Baptist, a lot of Protestants- and you know Rick kind of stuck his foot in his mouth with the Protestant crowd recently. I also think the Ohio “rural vs. city” scenario will come into effect. Romney might not win, but it’ll be a lot closer than you might think.

BettyRuth on March 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

FIFY

ebrown2 on March 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM

That was brilliant…ten years ago.

AngusMc on March 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

All polling shows that the overwhelming majority of Newt’s supporters, 60 plus percent, would go to Santorum but only about a quarter of Santorum’s voters would go to Newt.

Rick is the anti Mitt/Newt candidate.

fight like a girl on March 8, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Rasmussen has a poll out today that disputes that. Mitt still wins.

BettyRuth on March 8, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Given the updates, let’s look at how far gone into the MSM spin mode Ed has gone.

1) Old poll shows Santorum ahead
Response: Never heard of the pollster, but I like the result so I’ll make the story about that poll

2) Old poll shows Romney ahead
Response: Don’t like the organization that made the poll, so I’ll dismiss it out of hand

3) New poll shows Romney ahead
Response: Never heard of the pollster, but I don’t like the result so I’ll dismiss it out of hand

Conclusion: Hot Air, welcome to the ranks of the MSM establishment. You’ve proven your bona fides to all the journolisters.

AngusMc on March 8, 2012 at 2:11 PM

From Rasmussen:

While some have suggested that if Gingrich gets out of the race Santorum will move into the lead, the numbers still don’t bear that out. In a one-on-one matchup. Romney leads Santorum 50% to 39%, virtually identical to last week’s findings.

EddieC on March 8, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Is there any truth to the rumor that Ed is changing the name of the website to HotSantorum at least through August of 2012?

galtani on March 8, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Oddly enough, Alabama is not as evangelical as you’de think. A lot of Baptist, a lot of Protestants- and you know Rick kind of stuck his foot in his mouth with the Protestant crowd recently. I also think the Ohio “rural vs. city” scenario will come into effect. Romney might not win, but it’ll be a lot closer than you might think.

BettyRuth on March 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Yeah. I don’t think he will, though it’ll probably be turned into yet another must-win for him, to carry on the weak frontrunner narrative. Or, labeled yet another home state because it’s sorta on the same side of the country as MA, or whatever /

changer1701 on March 8, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Yeah. I don’t think he will, though it’ll probably be turned into yet another must-win for him, to carry on the weak frontrunner narrative. Or, labeled yet another home state because it’s sorta on the same side of the country as MA, or whatever /

changer1701 on March 8, 2012 at 2:21 PM

I heard Romney once spent the night in an Alabama hotel. That qualifies it as his home state, so therefore a must-win or else he’ll have to immediately drop out of the race.

AngusMc on March 8, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Like North Carolina, Alabama had a good number of people from the North moving in because of the increase in manufacturing and economic activities there.

galtani on March 8, 2012 at 2:26 PM

changer1701 on March 8, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Seriously. And if he DID win, it’s because he brainwashed all the Alabamians with his big money ads.

BettyRuth on March 8, 2012 at 2:27 PM

I don’t see where the criticism of the Alabama State poll or the Capital Survey Research Center poll is coming from. Is it their methodology? Their samples?

Those polls which don’t disclose any such information should be completely ignored. But Ed’s “reliability” test seems completely arbitrary.

Oddly enough, he gives greater credence to those which show Santorum in the lead. Perhaps it is coincidental.

Or perhaps it is the last gasping breath of dying credibility.

Adjoran on March 8, 2012 at 2:37 PM

AngusMc on March 8, 2012 at 2:26 PM
BettyRuth on March 8, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Well, he’s probably flown over the state, too, in his diamond-encrusted private jet (on the way to visit his money bins in the Caymans, no less), so that counts ;)

changer1701 on March 8, 2012 at 2:39 PM

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