Q-poll puts Romney up 3 in Ohio; Update: Romney up 7 in ARG; Update: Santorum up 1 in Rasmussen

posted at 10:25 am on March 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’ll be looking at polls most of the day in order to get a handle on what to expect from tomorrow’s Super Tuesday contests, and a new Quinnipiac poll shows a momentum swing in tomorrow’s most significant battleground.  Mitt Romney has taken a narrow lead from Rick Santorum in the final hours before the Ohio primary, which represents a ten-point shift in ten days from the Q-poll series:

The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is a 10-point shift from a February 27 Ohio survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Santorum with a 36 – 29 percent lead.

In this latest survey, men split with 33 percent for Santorum and 31 percent for Romney. Women back Romney 38 – 29 percent. Self-described conservatives, a strong base of Santorum support in earlier surveys, are split with 35 percent for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney.

“To borrow from the book of Berra, Yogi that is: It’s deja vu all over again for Gov. Mitt Romney. Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. “A week ago, Quinnipiac had Sen. Santorum ahead by seven points, now it’s Romney by three – a 10-point swing in seven days. The margin makes the Ohio race too close to call, but Romney is the one with the wind at his back.”

This corroborates most of the polling we saw over the last few days.  Santorum’s lead had been significant two weeks ago, and now it has dissipated entirely.  The race now hinges on the differentiation between the candidates and the impulse decisions that will get made on the way to the polling booth tomorrow.

Unfortunately, the Q-poll survey doesn’t dig into those questions as other pollsters do.  The only breakdowns in the report are on the candidate choice and favorability.  The latter doesn’t provide any clues, either, since both men are nearly tied on it; Romney has a 53/36 favorability and Santorum gets a 59/26 for a slight edge.  That edge is wider among self-described conservatives (64/23 for Santorum, 53/37 for Romney), but Santorum only gets a 44/35 among moderates while Romney gets a 56/29. The only demos in this poll that could be significant for predicting the outcome might be the age categories.  Younger voters tend to turn out less, and Santorum leads among 18-49 by nine points, 34/25.  Older voters tend to turn out better, and Romney leads among 50-64YOs by eight (38/30) and seniors by twelve (40/28).

Again, with Santorum’s delegate qualification problems in Ohio, he needs a pretty decisive popular-vote win to get a majority of delegates.  The data from the polls shows that Santorum doesn’t appear to be in position to get that, and may not win the popular vote at all — which would be a blow to his credibility after the Super Tuesday contests.

Update: ARG’s new poll in Ohio taken over the weekend has Romney up by seven:

Mitt Romney leads the Ohio Republican presidential primary with 35%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 28%, Newt Gingrich with 18%, and Ron Paul with 13%.

Romney leads Santorum 36% to 29% among Republicans, followed by Gingrich with 18% and Paul with 11%. Among independents, Romney leads with 33%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Paul with 20%, and Gingrich with 17%.

Santorum leads with 37% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 33%, Gingrich with 17%, and Paul with 10%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 38%, followed by Santorum and Gingrich with 19% each, and Paul with 16%.

Romney leads Santorum 32% to 27% among men, followed by Gingrich with 21% and Paul with 17%. Romney leads Santorum 39% to 30% among women, followed by Gingrich with 14% and Paul with 8%.

ARG has a dicey record on accurately predicting outcomes.  If Romney wins Ohio by seven points, though, it will be difficult for Santorum to make the sale with donors after Super Tuesday.  The Rust Belt is supposed to be Santorum’s strength.

Update IIRasmussen has Santorum up by only one point in Ohio based on polling from yesterday:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Ohio shows Santorum earning 32% support to Romney’s 31%. The survey was taken Sunday night. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul run far behind, each with 13% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  

Three days ago, it was Santorum 33%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15% and Paul 11%. Two weeks before that, Santorum posted an 18-point lead over Romney, but the race began tightening dramatically after Romney’s wins last Tuesday in the Arizonaand Michigan primaries. The former Massachusetts governor now leads Santorum 40% to 24% among Republican primary voters nationwide.

Santorum will be hoping that Rasmussen’s polling turns out to be the more predictive of the three.


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http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/oh/

ARG has Romney up 7.

joana on March 5, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Time for the Grinch and sweater vest to face reality.

hanzblinx on March 5, 2012 at 10:25 AM

If Romney wins Ohio it’s over and we have our nominee.

BobScuba on March 5, 2012 at 10:26 AM

We need to close ranks behind Romney and FINALLY START FOCUSING ON OBAMA.

It’s over after tomorrow. Time to re-aim our fire.

Esoteric on March 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Margin of error? I’d call this too close to call. Just saying.

platypus on March 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Turn out the lights, the party’s over.

I’ll still be voting by conscience tomorrow anyway. Feel free to cancel it out.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Someone needs to drop out after tomorrow, yes?

cmsinaz on March 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Ohio: vote for Romney – the only standing candidate who can defeat Obama.

Why? Because the GOP does not elect senators to the White House. Every time we try, we LOSE (Goldwater, Dole, McCain). Conversely, when we nominate governors (Reagan, Bush 43) or vice presidents (Nixon, Bush 41), we WIN.

Part of the reason is that governors and vps have executive experience. A larger reason is that any senator has a congressional voting record that gets picked apart by the Dems and the MSM – we saw this on display with Santorum in the last debate. Santorum was stuttering and stammering to explain legislative procedure and how he reversed his position to take “one for the team.” David Axelrod would destroy Santorum in 72 hours.

The last GOP senator elected to the presidency was Warren Harding in 1920, nearly 100 years ago. Kinda tells ya something.

Want 4 more years of Obama? Vote Santorum.

Want to get rid of Obama? Vote Romney.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Esoteric on March 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Meh.

As the liberal Bill Cunningham has said, “This guy [Obama] can come out and give a speech in front of Greek columns, and women faint. Mitt Romney can’t even get a crowd in a phone booth.”

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Meh.

As the liberal Bill Cunningham has said, “This guy [Obama] can come out and give a speech in front of Greek columns, and women faint. Mitt Romney can’t even get a crowd in a phone booth.”

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Romney will get crowds. When everyone out there who’s sick of Obama understands he’s the alternative choice in November, they’ll start paying attention to what he’s saying. At that point the onus is on the electorate to vote him in and get Barry the hell out of there, because despite my many concerns over Romney, I’d much prefer him over 4 more years(well, 5 actually considering 2012 has just begun) of the current regime.

Doughboy on March 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Esoteric on March 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM

+1

Oil Can on March 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Margin of error? I’d call this too close to call. Just saying.
platypus on March 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Yup. Prospects look good for Romney in Ohio, but I wouldn’t suggest putting the farms on the bettin’ table just yet.

whatcat on March 5, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Margin of error? I’d call this too close to call. Just saying.
platypus on March 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM
Yup. Prospects look good for Romney in Ohio, but I wouldn’t suggest putting the farms on the bettin’ table just yet.

whatcat on March 5, 2012 at 10:33 AM

You are right, it is within the margin of error, but the momentum is with the Mitt. Buit I think it will steamroll him into major wins come tomorrow.

DuctTapeMyBrain on March 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Herding

james23 on March 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Romney cannot distinguish himself from obama – Rick Santorum is a much better choice.

Pork-Chop on March 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Santy somehow is letting a lead slip again.
…Hang in there Newt !!!!

KOOLAID2 on March 5, 2012 at 10:37 AM

“The President has run out of ideas. Now, he’s running out of excuses. And 2012 will be the year he runs out of time.” -Mitt Romney (Facebook)

pa-reach it!!

Zaggs on March 5, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Sanity is slowly creeping back with Republican voters.

Old Fritz on March 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Romney will get crowds.

Doughboy on March 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Yes, of course, better start reserving space in Stadiums for his events.

james23 on March 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

my work is done….

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Meh. Another lackluster big government establishmentarian to head the GOP ticket. Whoopee do. I do hope he chooses a “moderate” as Vice Presidential candidate to offset his severe conservatism.. That should really make him electible, especially to the Moderate Democrats and Independents.

Scriptor on March 5, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Doughboy on March 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I was quoting a wannabe conservative who came clean as a liberal Democrat last year in his opposition to Issue 2/Senate Bill 5.

Obama’s more likely to LOSE the election than Mitt will WIN it. Mitt is basically a placeholder President that we are throwing in for four years until a better one comes forth.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I don’t really believe this “10 point swing in 1 week” business. Nothing has happened in the last week. Romney made a few gaffes, nothing serious. Santorum made some strong statements that were said to help him, but may have hurt him. But again, nothing serious.

My suspicion is that either these polls don’t reflect reality or last week’s didn’t. But I don’t think sentiment could have changed that much over the last week.

And I believe that the current polling is probably closer to reality. Partly because I’m supporting Romney (full disclosure) but partly because the last poll taken is the one that makes a pollster’s reputation. They have to get the final poll right. They use the previous ones to shape opinion and the last poll to reflect it.

rogaineguy on March 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Scriptor on March 5, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Romney/Snowe 2012!

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Want 4 more years of Obama? Vote Santorum.

Want to get rid of Obama? Vote Romney.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Do you really need to be reminded that Romney hasn’t come close to wrapping this up yet?

Mr. Romney has the charisma of a potato, is indeed responsible for a virtually identical version of Obamacare that he weakly defends with a states’ rights argument, and is not exactly a champion of conservative causes. He needs to convince the base that there is some reason to support him other than the idea that he isn’t Obama.

Bottom line, it is pretty damned rude to be telling us to shut up and support your guy. It shows the same kind of disrespect that is the problem why there is such a huge enthusiasm gap between the base and Romney.

Happy Nomad on March 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

It appears to be over. Mitt will now be an heir to the Ford,Dole and Mc Cain successfull presidencys.

celtic warrior on March 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I am resigned to the idea that Mitt will be our nominee. Now I am just trying to figure out how we will be able to use Obamacare against the incumbent.

As a matter of fact, I’d rather talk about strategy against Obama with Mitt as our guy. I’m tired of the same old comments about all of the primary candidates.

Vince on March 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Mitt’s got Ohio.

People are tired of the in-fighting. Newt and Rick each got a fair shake and it showed they have their own set of problems.

It’s a simple question now – each candidate is flawed, so which set do you want to go into battle with?

Rick, as the lead, shows all we’ll talk about is social issues because he cannot control himself. As we’ve seen, it’s easy for the Dems to play three-card monte with social issues on top.

Newt reminds people of entrenched politics. He can’t really explain what he’s done for the past decade or why he got bumped off in the first place.

Mitt’s issues are with us, the base. And that’s an argument we can take up with him and his surrogates. For the middle, it’s a question of who are they more comfortable with – a stiff, corporate throwback or the kewl guy in office, who no one can really explain? Stiff vs Kewl. In chaotic times, my money is on stiff.

budfox on March 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

So we are going to elect someone who DOES NOT WANT TO DO ANYTHING ON SOCIAL SECURITY. In Aug Mitt said if anyone reforms Social Security they will throw Grandma and Grandpa off the cliff.

Mitt also wants to destroy small business. He will do it with his indexing min wage to inflation.

Mitt is also the father of Obamacare.

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Ok, it’s Romney already, let’s get on with smashing the Obama smear and lie machine.

kirkill on March 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Someone needs to drop out after tomorrow, yes?

cmsinaz on March 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

All of them?

Vince on March 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

What a major disappointment and it’s like watching the 2008 nightmare all over again and standing by helpless – snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by offering up another McCain against Obama. Mr. Dud sure makes me excited (not) and the democrats and independents will love him for sure much like McCain the last time. Still hope Ohio does the right thing, and if not, there are still plenty of states left and the objective can be a brokered convention. That would make the republican establishments’ collective heads explode and would definitely make it all the more worthwhile :-)

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

But, but, but, but, but, thats impossible. Erik Erikson of Redstate.com said, said, said that Romney can only get the support of NorthEasterners and transplanted NorthEasterns (i.e. Floridians) and states with Mormons. He also said that the good news about this election is that once Romney loses in the general, we will be rid of him and his supporters (which, one presumes means NorthEasterners and Mormons).

So, this poll must be wrong because Erik Erikson is never wrong and he is never a bigot either.

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Yes, of course, better start reserving space in Stadiums for his events.

james23 on March 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

If you want a candidate who can fill stadiums, you need look no further than the Marxist-in-chief we’ve already got. Although even he’d have trouble attracting crowds of that size these days given the record he’s running on.

Doughboy on March 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

As I have been saying for months, it’s Romney. He is our only chance this year.

echosyst on March 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Hey Jailbreak read up on Mormonism and tell me again you want to vote for a Mormon.

Just you wait people the media do reporting on what Mormons believe. That will scare A lot of indep and moderates.

First they will probally report on stories on how Mormons baptize dead people that they Don’t KNOW. Then they will report on how Mormons came from a planet and that is why they have A LOT OF KIDS.

Then they will report on how Jesus and Satan are brothers.

Then they will report on how Sexist mormons are.

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

natching defeat from the jaws of victory by offering up another McCain against Obama.

I’d agree, except that Mitt’s camp has shown they will go for the jugular.

If he doesn’t in the general, he’ll lose the grudging base support, which he needs to flip Mid-Western states.

Besides, I want Mitt so OWS can worked into a rabid lather. How they help Barry portray an image of a bright future is beyond me.

If Barry does nada about OWS, it’s tacit support. If he cracks down, it’s riot time.

budfox on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

So we are going to elect someone who DOES NOT WANT TO DO ANYTHING ON SOCIAL SECURITY. In Aug Mitt said if anyone reforms Social Security they will throw Grandma and Grandpa off the cliff.

Mitt also wants to destroy small business. He will do it with his indexing min wage to inflation.

Mitt is also the father of Obamacare.

BroncosRockSuck on March 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Yeah, sure he said that. Sure he is the father of ObamaCare.

Sure the Broncos rock!!

You are a genius.

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I don’t really believe this “10 point swing in 1 week” business. Nothing has happened in the last week.

rogaineguy on March 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Winning 5 states in a row (and CPAC) has just happened, guess you missed that part.

hanzblinx on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

2nd look at Ron Paul!?

nathor on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Someone needs to drop out after tomorrow, yes?

cmsinaz on March 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Let’s make it Santorum. I want Newt to get a few more jabs in at Romney.

Romney still reminds me of William Hurt’s character in Broadcast News. His knowledge of issue is pathetically thin.

BuckeyeSam on March 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Romney still reminds me of William Hurt’s character in Broadcast News. His knowledge of issue is pathetically thin.

BuckeyeSam on March 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Nobody ever says that. People always say he is the most prepared in the debates. Did you mean Perry or Cain or something? You sound stupid.

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Actually the reason for Romney’s surge is the way he’s campaigning. Watch his recent town hall in OH. It’s on c-span. He’s brilliant, dynamic, tough on Obama, inspiring, and everything he should be as a candidate. He relates to his audience with warmth and conviction. None of this fire comes across in 60 second responses during debates.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I noticed on Morning Joe this morning, that they are going to be sad when Santorum is out and the Left won’t have contraception to discuss.

Tater Salad on March 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Bottom line, it is pretty damned rude to be telling us to shut up and support your guy. It shows the same kind of disrespect that is the problem why there is such a huge enthusiasm gap between the base and Romney.

Happy Nomad on March 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Should Mitt lose this election, and it’s still a significant possibility, those same useful idiots will do the exact same thing. Refusing to take any responsibility for propping up a weak candidate with boorish behavior.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Romney, or Santorum…..guaranteed Obama 2nd term.

Obama-Lite or Pastor-in-Chief…..

Milquetoast or Loose Cannon…..

I’m sticking with Newt!

Sparky5253 on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Romney will get crowds. When everyone out there who’s sick of Obama understands he’s the alternative choice in November, they’ll start paying attention to what he’s saying. At that point the onus is on the electorate to vote him in and get Barry the hell out of there, because despite my many concerns over Romney, I’d much prefer him over 4 more years(well, 5 actually considering 2012 has just begun) of the current regime.

Doughboy on March 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

He won’t get crowds. People may reluctantly vote for him, but nobody will go spend hours in line to see him give his “I love America” speech.

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

2nd look at Ron Paul!?

nathor on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

3rd look at a Day-Old Ham Sandwich.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I am resigned to the idea that Mitt will be our nominee. Now I am just trying to figure out how we will be able to use Obamacare against the incumbent.

As a matter of fact, I’d rather talk about strategy against Obama with Mitt as our guy. I’m tired of the same old comments about all of the primary candidates.

Vince

Simple. Barry wants to make Mitt the architect of Obamacare. If your architect says your foundation is flawed who do you listen to? The architect or the realtor?

Zaggs on March 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I’ll still be voting by conscience tomorrow anyway. Feel free to cancel it out.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I’m voting in VA tomorrow for Romney. Good thing that doesn’t bother my conscience, cause I don’t have a lot of options on my ballot!

changer1701 on March 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Actually the reason for Romney’s surge is the way he’s campaigning. Watch his recent town hall in OH. It’s on c-span. He’s brilliant, dynamic, tough on Obama, inspiring, and everything he should be as a candidate. He relates to his audience with warmth and conviction. None of this fire comes across in 60 second responses during debates.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

LOL. Tought on Obama? You mean from the same guy who said the economy is improving and who called Obama a nice guy and who praised what Obama is doing on education?

Mittbots are funny people.

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Hey Jailbreak read up on Mormonism and tell me again you want to vote for a Mormon.

Just you wait people the media do reporting on what Mormons believe. That will scare A lot of indep and moderates.

First they will probally report on stories on how Mormons baptize dead people that they Don’t KNOW. Then they will report on how Mormons came from a planet and that is why they have A LOT OF KIDS.

Then they will report on how Jesus and Satan are brothers.

Then they will report on how Sexist mormons are.

BroncosRock
Let me see if i get this straight-
At this point, pretty much everyone realizes Romney’s getting the nom. That means you
1) dont care that bullsh!t like this hurts our chances of winning, but you dont care cause you hate mormons so much
2) are really a lefty troll in your moms basement
Which is it?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Romney still reminds me of William Hurt’s character in Broadcast News. His knowledge of issue is pathetically thin.

This makes little sense. His understanding of how government interfaces with business is far greater than any other candidate’s –and far greater than Obama’s.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Vince, heh :)

Buckeye, I’m cool with that

cmsinaz on March 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I’m voting in VA tomorrow for Romney. Good thing that doesn’t bother my conscience, cause I don’t have a lot of options on my ballot!

changer1701 on March 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Leave it blank. Won’t matter anyway.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

As the liberal Bill Cunningham has said, “This guy [Obama] can come out and give a speech in front of Greek columns, and women faint. Mitt Romney can’t even get a crowd in a phone booth.”

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I was listening to that last night. I don’t know if Cunningham was just full of hyperbole or if he really believes what he was saying. But obama can’t fill a school auditorium. And he sure as hell ain’t getting a billion dollars.
If somehow he starts filling stadiums again, they’ll be bussed in or union members forced to attend. And then just look at the sour faces.

Lanceman on March 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

He won’t get crowds. People may reluctantly vote for him, but nobody will go spend hours in line to see him give his “I love America” speech.

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Do you want fainting, Greek columns, and the like?

changer1701 on March 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I’d rather have Ron Paul or Gingrich but if both are incapable of closing the deal I’m willing to stick with Romney. Those who plan to sit out in protest should have their water supply examined for contaminants. I may understand folks who refuse to support Santorum or Ron Paul: on certain positions, both can be seen by some (wrongly or not) as worse than even Obama. But Romney, he is either Obama-lite as some claim, or he isn’t. If he is we’re screwed anyway, but I’d rather be screwed by a 3″ limp noodle than a 12″ monster (and if you wouldn’t, GOProud is waiting for your application). And if he is not, we might be better off that we hoped for.

Archivarix on March 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

My sense is that the truth is that Romney is probably up by 2-4 points in Ohio. Rasmussen seems to be outlier when it comes to worst case scenario for Mitt, and ARG is the outlier for best case scenario. The most likely resule is somewhere in between.

Regardless, if Santorum losses tomorrow in Ohio, I hope he does the prudent thing and drops out and endorses Romney.

milcus on March 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

He won’t get crowds. People may reluctantly vote for him, but nobody will go spend hours in line to see him give his “I love America” speech.

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Do you want fainting, Greek columns, and the like?

changer1701 on March 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

No I want a guy that has a hint of passion in him and is not a plastic robot spewing nonsense about loving America and Americans. Obama will wipe the floor with him.

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

3rd look at a Day-Old Ham Sandwich.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

at this point, only Paul remains unvetted. he deserves is change as the ABR champion.

nathor on March 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

You could see it coming, after Mitt pulled even with Rick. Like watching a foot race or a horse race. He’s coming up on the outside, and he’s going to pass him. Duh.

Paul-Cincy on March 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Aside from AZ, has Romney won any state that DIDN’T vote for Obama in 2008?

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Lanceman on March 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

There IS a reason why Bill Cunningham is persona non gratia on Hannity’s radio and TV shows.

His WLW listeners still think he’s actually a conservative, but it’s very possible that Willie could endorse (and even campaign for) Obama. After the Issue 2 fiasco, he’s proven to have even less principles than Mitt.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

A party of whiners. That’s what we got.

rubberneck on March 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Hey Jailbreak read up on Mormonism and tell me again you want to vote for a Mormon.

Just you wait people the media do reporting on what Mormons believe. That will scare A lot of indep and moderates.

First they will probally report on stories on how Mormons baptize dead people that they Don’t KNOW. Then they will report on how Mormons came from a planet and that is why they have A LOT OF KIDS.

Then they will report on how Jesus and Satan are brothers.

Then they will report on how Sexist mormons are.

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

How do the baptize dead people? Do they dig them out of their graves? Do they baptize them before they get buried. I’m confused.

Just kidding, I am not confused. But you are a total idiot.

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Do you really need to be reminded that Romney hasn’t come close to wrapping this up yet?

Mr. Romney has the charisma of a potato, is indeed responsible for a virtually identical version of Obamacare that he weakly defends with a states’ rights argument, and is not exactly a champion of conservative causes. He needs to convince the base that there is some reason to support him other than the idea that he isn’t Obama.

Bottom line, it is pretty damned rude to be telling us to shut up and support your guy. It shows the same kind of disrespect that is the problem why there is such a huge enthusiasm gap between the base and Romney.

Happy Nomad on March 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Well said!

Just Sayin on March 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Aside from AZ, has Romney won any state that DIDN’T vote for Obama in 2008?

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

So Arizona shouldn’t count? It’s not like Santorum or Newt are racking up the red state victories. The truth is we really haven’t had many non-Obama states in the mix thus far. Super Tuesday is the first chance we have to change that. But if the non-Romney candidates can’t parley the redder primaries and caucuses into more victories(and thus higher delegate totals) for themselves, then it’s hard for them to argue to the base that they’re better choices than Mittens.

Doughboy on March 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Bottom line, it is pretty damned rude to be telling us to shut up and support your guy. It shows the same kind of disrespect that is the problem why there is such a huge enthusiasm gap between the base and Romney.

Happy Nomad on March 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Just giving you my opinion. Vote for whom you please.

Romney will drive Obama crazy and, like Reagan, can run AGAINST DC. Santorum cannot.

We also saw Santorum’s “John Kerry” moment on display last week. If Santo’s the nominee, we are on defense the entire campaign.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I suppose Mitt can use the romneycare thing as something that was set up for the state of Mass. vs. the ENTIRE country. It can be viewed similarly to a state setting up it’s own health care plan and the people voting on it, unlike democracts SHOVING it down our throats against our will!

justonevictory on March 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Romney cannot distinguish himself from obama – Rick Santorum is a much better choice.

Pork-Chop on March 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I’m pretty sure any Republican politician out there, even comparatively moderate Northeastern Republicans like Romney and Christie, can differentiate themselves from President Obama, a not-so-closeted Marxist socialist and Saul Alinsky disciple.

Hyperbole doesn’t help your argument for Santorum. Santorum can or can’t take on Obama in the general election. I’m betting can’t.

troyriser_gopftw on March 5, 2012 at 11:07 AM

There IS a reason why Bill Cunningham is persona non gratia on Hannity’s radio and TV shows.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

What? I’ve seen Cunningham on Hannity. And I’m sure, on the odd time I pay attention to his radio show, that he’s been there as well.

Just kidding, I am not confused. But you are a total idiot.

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM

As opposed to just being a partial idiot.

Lanceman on March 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

What do the polls point to if Gingrich were to drop out on Wednesday? If a majority head to Santorum, then what?

Lord of the Wings on March 5, 2012 at 11:09 AM

I am resigned to the idea that Mitt will be our nominee. Now I am just trying to figure out how we will be able to use Obamacare against the incumbent.

Fair question.

1. If the Supremes knock down Obamacare, the job is done.

2. If the Supremes uphold Obamacare, Romney has two arguments. First, he can point to the difference between a state laboratory versus a federal monstrosity. More importantly, unlike every GOP nominee to date, the Left cannot accuse Romney of “not caring about people’s health care.”

Romney is sufficiently well-positioned on this issue. It is not the disaster that certain people are wringing their hands with. Romney can still strongly advocate a 50-state waiver on day one, followed by defunding the mandate, followed by full repeal.

At most this will be one or two questions at the televised debates. The economy, including the mounting debt, and foreign policy will be much larger issues.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

He won’t get crowds. People may reluctantly vote for him, but nobody will go spend hours in line to see him give his “I love America” speech.

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Talk about sour grapes! This pretty much sums up the attitude of the Romney-doubters–including Erick Erickson, Rush Limbaugh and George Will. Meanwhile Romney charges ahead doing what he has to do to win.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Aside from AZ, has Romney won any state that DIDN’T vote for Obama in 2008?

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Wyoming.

Jon0815 on March 5, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Simple. Barry wants to make Mitt the architect of Obamacare. If your architect says your foundation is flawed who do you listen to? The architect or the realtor?

Zaggs on March 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

So Mitt will have to disavow Romneycare? Or, are you saying that Mitt will say: “I drew up a great plan for my state and you didn’t follow my blurprint for a national plan,” ’cause then we’re really getting into the weeds.

Vince on March 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

What? I’ve seen Cunningham on Hannity. And I’m sure, on the odd time I pay attention to his radio show, that he’s been there as well.

Lanceman on March 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Willie hasn’t been invited back to either show after publicly attacking Ohio governor John Kasich and campaigning with Ohio public union employees Democrat operatives on the repeal of Senate Bill 5 (d/b/a Issue 2).

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

The economy, including the mounting debt, and foreign policy will be much larger issues.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

This is a much better argument for Romney’s nomination.

First, I hope the SC does rule against Obamacare and second, if Obama is made to talk about his record, he will lose.

Vince on March 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

That Mitt is running strong in states that voted for Obama in 2008 is a plus, not a minus.

Any GOP candidate is going to carry SC or Oklahoma etc etc.

The point is, Mitt plays on Blue field. No wonder Axelrod is terrified. We might not win all of those states, but we’ll make Obama go broke defending them. This is electoral chess, and it is a key reason why Romney has so much support from members of Congress.

Obama himself will be the magic that unites conservatives. Most of us would vote for a ham sandwich rather than face the prospect of a 2nd Obama term – especially with the Supreme Court at stake.

In the general election it will be much easier to get conservatives to vote for Romney than independents for Santorum.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:17 AM

It’s the economy, stupid. That’s what people will want to talk about. Gas prices, drilling, food prices, jobs–not the morality of contraception.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 11:20 AM

It’s the economy, stupid. That’s what people will want to talk about. Gas prices, drilling, food prices, jobs–not the morality of contraception.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Tell that to the MSM, who are purposefully obsessing on contraception.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Hey Jailbreak,

Mormons pray over dead people a lot so they can save them. Why am I an idiot for telling what Mormons believe.

A good bummer slogan for this year, Lets replace someone who believes he is a God right now with someone who believes HE WILL BE A GOD when he dies.(Mitt)

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Aside from AZ, has Romney won any state that DIDN’T vote for Obama in 2008?

angryed on March 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I don’t get the logic of this question. Why should we be worrying about red states that didn’t vote for Obama? They’re a given in the next election. The states that really matter are the swing states–or, even better, the blue states. Red states only matter in primaries. They are reliably GOP in any general election.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 11:28 AM

BroncosRock-
Are you sad God made u stupid?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I am really curious to see what all the Romney haters are going to do when he wraps up the nom. Will they fight the good fight? Will they follow through on their promise to let Obama win to teach the Establishment a lesson? Any thoughts?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

So we are going to elect someone who DOES NOT WANT TO DO ANYTHING ON SOCIAL SECURITY. In Aug Mitt said if anyone reforms Social Security they will throw Grandma and Grandpa off the cliff.

Romney has been the most overt of all the candidates in supporting the Ryan budget, which includes entitlement reform.

Romney favors raising the retirement age in increments to protect both Social Security and Medicare for future generations.

Romney has also advocated turning Medicaid back to the states, along with the funds to manage the program more efficiently.

Romney understands that the status quo is not going to work. We are at the edge of a cliff as far as our debt load. The next 2 years are going to be profound, and the 2014 midterms are going to be no picnic for the GOP because difficult choices will be made to get the nation back on track.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I think the cheating will be so rampant this time we wont know what hit us. We dont need a gentleman as a candidate we need a rabid dog. Nice doesn’t cut it, yet the truth does. All we need is Obama’s own words and failing ideas played over and over and over again. Wake people up with the TRUTH!

justonevictory on March 5, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Bronco, right2bright, portlandon- what are you planning on doing? Telling America to go to he!! because a mormon is running? Hide in your basement (if you’re not already there)? I really am interested in an honest answer. Hey, if Santy pulls out the nom, I’m voting for him. Can u say the same?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:35 AM

If the primaries is the period to vet the candidates, why are those pictures not being circulated by HA?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/photo-exclusive-when-george-romney-met-saul-alins

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on March 5, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I am really curious to see what all the Romney haters are going to do when he wraps up the nom. Will they fight the good fight? Will they follow through on their promise to let Obama win to teach the Establishment a lesson? Any thoughts?

It is up to Romney to close the sale with conservatives, and he will. Romney has made tremendous inroads with Tea Party types and now has work to do with evangelicals.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I think the cheating will be so rampant this time we wont know what hit us. We dont need a gentleman as a candidate we need a rabid dog.

I agree. But Mitt Romney, with all his material advantages, is not wasting 6 years of his life in seedy Holiday Inns to roll over in the fall. Romney is determined to be president. You are misled by his civilized veneer that he is a lightweight. He is not; he is a SHARK, politically and otherwise.

Say what you want about his tactics — they are at least demonstrating that his team will play rough with Obama this fall.

Other critics are angry that Romney doesn’t call Obama every epithet that we have for the Empty Suit in the White House – socialist, communist, Black Panther, and so forth. The point is, if you want to reach independents, then it is better to argue that Obama is over his head and has mangled the job and made the economy worse. It is a much more winning message with the broad section of the electorate than calling Obama names, which only alienates independents and discerning Dems. Hyperbole is not going to win the election for the GOP; in fact, it creates a backlash that helps Obama. The demonstrably horrible Obama record is sufficient to win.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Hey Jailbreak,

Mormons pray over dead people a lot so they can save them. Why am I an idiot for telling what Mormons believe.

A good bummer slogan for this year, Lets replace someone who believes he is a God right now with someone who believes HE WILL BE A GOD when he dies.(Mitt)

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

CAtholics pray for dead people too. I guess they cant be president either, right President Kennedy?

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

exactly so. Romney, with few exceptions, has been campaigning for Nov. He won’t have any “let’s spend $1tril to build a moonbase” or “contraception is bad” to explain. The fact that the right bitches about saying his wife has ca couple of caddies is a HUGE gaffe is borderline retarded. If your wife was Ann Romney and you had $250mil, are you saying you wouldn’t get her anything she wants?!

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

I am resigned to the idea that Mitt will be our nominee. Now I am just trying to figure out how we will be able to use Obamacare against the incumbent.

As a matter of fact, I’d rather talk about strategy against Obama with Mitt as our guy. I’m tired of the same old comments about all of the primary candidates.

Vince on March 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Energy. Jobs. Deficit. Repeat as necessary.

Obamacare as secondary issue, particularly now that Obama, the Dems and the media have managed to take a question of religious liberty and frame it as Republicans want to ban contraception for women and treat them as property.

talkingpoints on March 5, 2012 at 11:53 AM

I am really curious to see what all the Romney haters are going to do when he wraps up the nom. Will they fight the good fight? Will they follow through on their promise to let Obama win to teach the Establishment a lesson? Any thoughts?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I think most will get on the Romney bandwagon. Again, its a lot like Hilary supporters in 2008. They too felt betrayed, but got on Obama’s bandwagon and helped him win.

The ones that dont simply need to realize that they will never teach the “Establishment” a lesson. The goal is winning, not pushing for a suicidal, yet ideologically pure, vision of the Republican party. If they cant figure that out, than they should just not vote. Plain and simple.

milcus on March 5, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Romney has also advocated turning Medicaid back to the states, along with the funds to manage the program more efficiently.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

This comment needs some explaining. Medicaid is already a state program with some Federal, matching funds. The problem is the states relying too much on the Federal dollars coming in.

What you are saying above is to supply Federal dollars but let the states run it without worry of getting cut off?

Vince on March 5, 2012 at 11:54 AM

If only I could believe that Mitt Romney will even attempt to do half of what he’s promising. If it’s any indication, I wish they would fight the democrats as hard as these moderate republicans are attacking Rush Limbaugh. No wonder the democrats are neutering the republicans left and right (pardon the pun). And Romney is as bad as the rest of them. Easy to pick on the conservatives to try to score points with democrats and independents. But that’s always a forumula for disaster. Romney and his ilk should learn who their real friends are and maybe stick up for social and religious convictions now and then. Instead, they let the democrats dig in harder and define the republicans and agree with them. I don’t trust Romney and he’ll cave at the first sign of trouble. No guts or gumption there.

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Dunno the particulars on the Medicaid proposal. My understanding is to turn the program back to the states along with the federal dollars. The states can administrate the program better at lower cost and help more people.

matthew8787 on March 5, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I am really curious to see what all the Romney haters are going to do when he wraps up the nom. Will they fight the good fight? Will they follow through on their promise to let Obama win to teach the Establishment a lesson? Any thoughts?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I think most will get on the Romney bandwagon. Again, its a lot like Hilary supporters in 2008. They too felt betrayed, but got on Obama’s bandwagon and helped him win.

The ones that dont simply need to realize that they will never teach the “Establishment” a lesson. The goal is winning, not pushing for a suicidal, yet ideologically pure, vision of the Republican party. If they cant figure that out, than they should just not vote. Plain and simple.

milcus on March 5, 2012 at 11:53 AM

I think the answer to this depends entirely on whether Romney continues to allow himself to be dragged kicking and screaming toward the Right, or whether he pivots back to the Left during the general election. If it’s the former, I have no doubt that he will earn the support of most of his detractors. If it’s the latter – and I think it will be – he will not.

Just Sayin on March 5, 2012 at 12:03 PM

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