Q-poll puts Romney up 3 in Ohio; Update: Romney up 7 in ARG; Update: Santorum up 1 in Rasmussen

posted at 10:25 am on March 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’ll be looking at polls most of the day in order to get a handle on what to expect from tomorrow’s Super Tuesday contests, and a new Quinnipiac poll shows a momentum swing in tomorrow’s most significant battleground.  Mitt Romney has taken a narrow lead from Rick Santorum in the final hours before the Ohio primary, which represents a ten-point shift in ten days from the Q-poll series:

The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is a 10-point shift from a February 27 Ohio survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Santorum with a 36 – 29 percent lead.

In this latest survey, men split with 33 percent for Santorum and 31 percent for Romney. Women back Romney 38 – 29 percent. Self-described conservatives, a strong base of Santorum support in earlier surveys, are split with 35 percent for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney.

“To borrow from the book of Berra, Yogi that is: It’s deja vu all over again for Gov. Mitt Romney. Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. “A week ago, Quinnipiac had Sen. Santorum ahead by seven points, now it’s Romney by three – a 10-point swing in seven days. The margin makes the Ohio race too close to call, but Romney is the one with the wind at his back.”

This corroborates most of the polling we saw over the last few days.  Santorum’s lead had been significant two weeks ago, and now it has dissipated entirely.  The race now hinges on the differentiation between the candidates and the impulse decisions that will get made on the way to the polling booth tomorrow.

Unfortunately, the Q-poll survey doesn’t dig into those questions as other pollsters do.  The only breakdowns in the report are on the candidate choice and favorability.  The latter doesn’t provide any clues, either, since both men are nearly tied on it; Romney has a 53/36 favorability and Santorum gets a 59/26 for a slight edge.  That edge is wider among self-described conservatives (64/23 for Santorum, 53/37 for Romney), but Santorum only gets a 44/35 among moderates while Romney gets a 56/29. The only demos in this poll that could be significant for predicting the outcome might be the age categories.  Younger voters tend to turn out less, and Santorum leads among 18-49 by nine points, 34/25.  Older voters tend to turn out better, and Romney leads among 50-64YOs by eight (38/30) and seniors by twelve (40/28).

Again, with Santorum’s delegate qualification problems in Ohio, he needs a pretty decisive popular-vote win to get a majority of delegates.  The data from the polls shows that Santorum doesn’t appear to be in position to get that, and may not win the popular vote at all — which would be a blow to his credibility after the Super Tuesday contests.

Update: ARG’s new poll in Ohio taken over the weekend has Romney up by seven:

Mitt Romney leads the Ohio Republican presidential primary with 35%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 28%, Newt Gingrich with 18%, and Ron Paul with 13%.

Romney leads Santorum 36% to 29% among Republicans, followed by Gingrich with 18% and Paul with 11%. Among independents, Romney leads with 33%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Paul with 20%, and Gingrich with 17%.

Santorum leads with 37% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 33%, Gingrich with 17%, and Paul with 10%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 38%, followed by Santorum and Gingrich with 19% each, and Paul with 16%.

Romney leads Santorum 32% to 27% among men, followed by Gingrich with 21% and Paul with 17%. Romney leads Santorum 39% to 30% among women, followed by Gingrich with 14% and Paul with 8%.

ARG has a dicey record on accurately predicting outcomes.  If Romney wins Ohio by seven points, though, it will be difficult for Santorum to make the sale with donors after Super Tuesday.  The Rust Belt is supposed to be Santorum’s strength.

Update IIRasmussen has Santorum up by only one point in Ohio based on polling from yesterday:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Ohio shows Santorum earning 32% support to Romney’s 31%. The survey was taken Sunday night. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul run far behind, each with 13% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  

Three days ago, it was Santorum 33%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15% and Paul 11%. Two weeks before that, Santorum posted an 18-point lead over Romney, but the race began tightening dramatically after Romney’s wins last Tuesday in the Arizonaand Michigan primaries. The former Massachusetts governor now leads Santorum 40% to 24% among Republican primary voters nationwide.

Santorum will be hoping that Rasmussen’s polling turns out to be the more predictive of the three.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

I think the answer to this depends entirely on whether Romney continues to allow himself to be dragged kicking and screaming toward the Right, or whether he pivots back to the Left during the general election. If it’s the former, I have no doubt that he will earn the support of most of his detractors. If it’s the latter – and I think it will be – he will not.

Just Sayin on March 5, 2012 at 12:03 PM

The painful choice will be do we want to continue this path of destruction with the current democrat president. Or, if God forbid we don’t get control of the Senate, we continue this path with the democrats pushing their agenda using a weak republican president to do their bidding. I’m not sure which is worse? It’s a win win scenario for the democrats with a Romney nomination.

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 12:06 PM

The internal polling number for Sanctimonious must not be encouraging for him to tell people to ignore the poll when he was campaigning today.

galtani on March 5, 2012 at 12:08 PM

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 12:06 PM

I agree with your analysis.

The only hope we will have is if we keep the House and take the Senate.

Just Sayin on March 5, 2012 at 12:21 PM

@mozalf

Ginsberg, Breyer, Kennedy, and Scalia could all leave the supreme court by 2016.

That would mean four more supreme court picks for obama giving him six supreme court justices for the next generation. Last second amendment case was 5-4.

One more liberal justice if kennedy retires and you have a whole host of new rulings and this liberal court would be more activist than the brennan court.

That is what this election should be about.

A second obama term would mean janet napalitano or kamela harris replacing kennedy and scalia.

ryandan on March 5, 2012 at 12:23 PM

I don’t want obama picking the next four supreme court justices. Having him have two was bad enough.

Having obama have an obama supreme court for the next generation and it being called the obama court for the next 30 years would be awful.

ryandan on March 5, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Ginsberg, Breyer, Kennedy, and Scalia could all leave the supreme court by 2016.

That would mean four more supreme court picks for obama giving him six supreme court justices for the next generation. Last second amendment case was 5-4.

One more liberal justice if kennedy retires and you have a whole host of new rulings and this liberal court would be more activist than the brennan court.

That is what this election should be about.

A second obama term would mean janet napalitano or kamela harris replacing kennedy and scalia.

ryandan on March 5, 2012 at 12:23 PM

This is also why quite a few of us are so adamant against Romney. If it doesn’t work out as hoped and we end up not getting republican majorities in the Congress, Romney will end up nominating more Harriet Myers and God knows who else to appease the democrats. And the Napolitano/Harris SCOTUS will be his and not Obama’s. I don’t care if Bork has endorsed Romney, Romney is an appeaser and will cave on SCOTUS nominees in a heart beat.

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Here are some good news for Ed: Suffolk has Santorum up 4 in Ohio. They see Romney with the momentum though.

http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/50649.html

joana on March 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Here are some good news for Ed: Suffolk has Santorum up 4 in Ohio. They see Romney with the momentum though.
http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/50649.html
joana on March 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Thanx, joana. Interesting Suffolk says 39% is the magic #. Whoever gets there wins Ohio.

gracie on March 5, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Hey Jailbreak read up on Mormonism and tell me again you want to vote for a Mormon.

Just you wait people the media do reporting on what Mormons believe. That will scare A lot of indep and moderates.

First they will probally report on stories on how Mormons baptize dead people that they Don’t KNOW. Then they will report on how Mormons came from a planet and that is why they have A LOT OF KIDS.

Then they will report on how Jesus and Satan are brothers.

Then they will report on how Sexist mormons are.

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I always knew Broncos fans were bigots. Raider Nation for life!

So the GOP is the anti religion party now? We criticize people for their faith like the Dems do now? None of the stuff you brought up abour Mormons bothers me in the least, It’s no different than talking in tongues, Flagrums, or selling Indulgences and none of it matters. It’s people’s personal faith and that’s it.

1984 in real life on March 5, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Romney up 7 in ARG is right.

Arg.

Bishop on March 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

If Romney wins Ohio and Tennessee — and he has a very good chance of doing so — Santorum will drop out. You heard it here first. He’ll be endorsing Romney by Friday or Saturday.

If Santorum wins Tennessee, he’ll stay in. If he wins both Ohio and Tennessee, he’ll be the talk of the town and we’ll here more about the Establishment looking towards Jeb Bush. That won’t happen.

Gingerich will soldier on and in fact get a burst of poll value as some of the disaffected Santorum voters switch to him. But it will be too little, too late.

MaxMBJ on March 5, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Massachussetts doesn’t own her son.

Schadenfreude on March 5, 2012 at 1:28 PM

No more Bushes!

Go Rick or Newt or anyone but Romney or Paul!

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Limbaugh certainly didn’t help Saintorum as many will figure what Limbaugh said about defining “sluts and prostitutes” is what Saintorum believes.

VorDaj on March 5, 2012 at 1:33 PM

BroncosRock on March 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM
I always knew Broncos fans were bigots. Raider Nation for life!

So the GOP is the anti religion party now? We criticize people for their faith like the Dems do now? None of the stuff you brought up abour Mormons bothers me in the least, It’s no different than talking in tongues, Flagrums, or selling Indulgences and none of it matters. It’s people’s personal faith and that’s it.

1984 in real life on March 5, 2012 at 12:54 PM

HA HA. Amen to that. Raiders rule. Broncos suck. And this kid is an idiot.

Jailbreak on March 5, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Mitt Romney is not the ideal candidate, for sure.

I cannot believe though how BLIND the social conservatives are about how divisive a Santorum nomination would, or the Newtonians, that Gingrich is an unstable nut with terrible judgement.

Romney has flaws too, but not disqualifying ones like Rick or Newt. The choices suck, but Romney is the only candidate who has a prayer of winning..

Craig Nelson on March 5, 2012 at 1:46 PM

I am really curious to see what all the Romney haters are going to do when he wraps up the nom. Will they fight the good fight? Will they follow through on their promise to let Obama win to teach the Establishment a lesson? Any thoughts?

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Romney is a lying Democrat . . .the only ‘good fight’ will be the fight for for conservative Representatives and Senators. Romney will get no money, no positive spin, and no vote from me!

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 1:48 PM

How is el Rushbo doing today?

SparkPlug on March 5, 2012 at 1:53 PM

OBAMAROMNEYCARE 2012!!!

PappyD61 on March 5, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Romney is a lying Democrat . . .the only ‘good fight’ will be the fight for for conservative Representatives and Senators. Romney will get no money, no positive spin, and no vote from me!

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 1:48 PM

I’m already digging out my nose clip again if the outlook doesn’t improve. My nose hurts from holding it so much for Dole, Bushes, McCain, and here we’re about to go again possibly. I don’t know how I’m going to argue and fight for this putz when there’s not all that much difference between him and Obama. I’ll just shut up and pull the lever at the right time. But it’s looking pretty gloomy and I think George Will is absolutely right. If it’s Romney as the nominee, we better hope that we get the Congress instead because we are screwed either way!

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 1:57 PM

“I’m a Progressive”—Mitt Romney in his own words.

explain this one MittBots!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pu0zQRUCDlM

PappyD61 on March 5, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Just say no to Elmer Gantry for President.

Alpha_Male on March 5, 2012 at 1:59 PM

How is el Rushbo doing today?

SparkPlug on March 5, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Rushbo is on a roll! I love how he brushed off these advertising hacks cancelling – how he’s already turned down millions of dollars in advertisements because he doesn’t always agree with their endorsements so he’s definitely not hurting there. And it’s only political shenanigans anyway. Plus there’s already a movement underway to target the advertisers and hit them right back. He’s great!

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Rush Limbaugh is an idiot blowhard who gives a black eye to those who beleive liberty and limited government almost everytime he opens his big fat mouth.

As a free market libertarian who believes in limited government, low taxes, gay marriage, private K-12 schools, abolishing teacher’s and public employee unions and takes no position on social issues I’m GLAD Rush Limbaugh is getting heat. He does not and never has spoken in my name.

The face of the GOP needs to be Milton Friedman and Freiderich Hayek, not clowns like Rush Limbaugh or Jerry Falwell.

We’re up to 7 companies pulling ads, sounds like all his important ones too : Quicken Loans, Sleep Number, Sleep Train, Legal Zoom, Carbonite, Pro Flowers and Citrix..

My only unhappiness is that the Left joins me in my glee. When Nixon resigned in 1973, only 20% of the people polled supported him. I was one of those because of my hatred for the MSM and the Left.

Craig Nelson on March 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

so, mozalf and pragmatic, who is your knight in shining armour? Jeb? Palin? Name some names.

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

so, mozalf and pragmatic, who is your knight in shining armour? Jeb? Palin? Name some names.

drballard on March 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I’m still am and have been a Santorum supporter from the beginning. He speaks and I feel like he’s speaking to me -he’s one of us. And he has a lot of the same political, religious, and social convictions that I do and feel we should be fighting for, not ridiculing and hiding from. I like his economic plan and, if we’d stop allowing the democrats and media to slant them, his social positions which we are in serious need of addressing before it’s too late. I’m also positive that he would fight as a republican President and not allow the democrats to roll over him. He’s an appealing guy and grounded politician – exactly what we need in the coming 4-8 years to turn things around. I’m not a political expert like a lot on here, I go with my gut.

mozalf on March 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

I just hope Mitt learns to talk like he is in a conversation with the people. If he learns to be himself in public, he will connect and attract the voters who look into the campaigns those last two months.

jimw on March 5, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Polls are nothing more than a propoganda tool for Romney… Wake up

apocalypse on March 5, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Defintely not Jeb Bush . . . .Jindal, Palin, Ryan, Rubio (at top of ticket and not as VP), West would all be good options . . .and I still like Rick Perry (although that horse has already left the barn).

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Palin has more chutzpah, smarts, and brains in her little finger than Romney could ever lie abou having (I don’t care if he is a Harvard grad. .. . .so is the current White House resident).

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 2:44 PM

I just hope Mitt learns to talk like he is in a conversation with the people. If he learns to be himself in public, he will connect and attract the voters who look into the campaigns those last two months.

jimw on March 5, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Mitt is a Democrat and a hopeless candidate for the Republican Party . . .he is truly a disaster . . . .we need to get rid of him asap and get serious about saving this country. . . .someone said it earlier on one of the threads on hotair . . . .if Romney is the Republican nominee, the Presidential election will be a win-win for Democrats in November . . .. this nomination process is a disgrace and Republican Party is suicidal to allow this travesty to continue . . . .

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Here’s a poll for ya: Conservative bloggers…

Buy Danish on March 5, 2012 at 2:56 PM

For the first time in a long time . . .I agree 100% with George Will.

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 2:56 PM

It’s the economy, stupid. That’s what people will want to talk about. Gas prices, drilling, food prices, jobs–not the morality of contraception.

writeblock on March 5, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Tell that to the MSM, who are purposefully obsessing on contraception.

Myron Falwell on March 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

That George Stephaloponis, isn’t it amazing the way he can set the political narrative? All the Sunday news shows yesterday were about Rush and Fluke.

slickwillie2001 on March 5, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Here’s a poll for ya: Conservative bloggers…

Buy Danish on March 5, 2012 at 2:56 PM

with all these bloggers? how many are guys in their underwear blogging from their mothers basemants.

sheesh

gerrym51 on March 5, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Fox sure has done a number on Gingrich. Same as Hot Air and Drudge.

Notice how Newt gets very little media, and when he does get airtime, he proves he is far superior in intellect, substance, and experience, than the other candidates.

It boggles my mind how stunningly ignorant people are, to be so played by the media and large blogs.

When a particular candidate is being shoved down your throat, anyone with any scintilla of a brain, would ask WHY!

Seems an inordinate number of voters are STUCK ON STUPID!

The GOP deserves another 4 years of Obama, if Romney gets the nod.

Sparky5253 on March 5, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Nice goin’, STUPID Party!?! You have infected 38% of the entire country with the dreaded LEMMING disease, MHIT-For-Brains!?! MHIT-For-Brains ROBS otherwise right-thinking people of all semblence of common sense, which causes them to vote for LIBERALS!?! You MHIT-For-Brains zombies just don’t realize what a complete and total whoopin’ the Dummycrats are gonna put on Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name). RINO Romney will be rendered UNelectable even before his acceptance speech!?! Thank you so much, STUPID Party for cutting a backroom deal with Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name) back in 2008!!! After four more years of Obastard, there will be no need for a STUPID Party, because Obastard will have accomplished his Cloward/Piven dream to single-handedly COLLAPSE this once-great country!?! NICE GOIN’, STUPID PARTY!!!!!

Colatteral Damage on March 5, 2012 at 3:22 PM

gerrym51 on March 5, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Are you out of country? I asked that the other day when you signed off at 5 pm at the East Coast, saying goodnight.

galtani on March 5, 2012 at 3:25 PM

I AM STILL GOING TO VOTE NEWT IN MY STATE!!! Baggage?? Baggage?? Don’t give a CRAP about no stinkin’ baggage!?!

Colatteral Damage on March 5, 2012 at 3:25 PM

RASMUSSEN:

The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

So, Santorum is +1 in that Rasumssen poll. That means Romney could still be several points ahead. It means Santorum could actually be several points behind Romney in this latest Rasumssen poll. It means there’s a wide range of possibility on the point spread.

mountainaires on March 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Yup, that’s why Santorum robocalled Dems and had Michael Moore’s backing

1984 in real life on March 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

joana on March 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Suffolk poll:

Romney was seen as the candidate who has the best chance of defeating President Barack Obama by 44 percent of respondents, while 18 percent chose Santorum; 15 percent, Gingrich; and 2 percent, Ron Paul.

mountainaires on March 5, 2012 at 4:15 PM

So, Santorum is +1 in that Rasumssen poll. That means Romney could still be several points ahead.

mountainaires on March 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Or, Santorum could be up +5.

imasoulman on March 5, 2012 at 4:30 PM

galtani on March 5, 2012 at 3:25 PM

i live in mass. I think you have me mixed up with someone else

gerrym51 on March 5, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Are you out of country? I asked that the other day when you signed off at 5 pm at the East Coast, saying goodnight.

galtani on March 5, 2012 at 3:25 PM

You may be thinking of g2825m who is serving on active duty in Afghanistan.

MJBrutus on March 5, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Of course since Santo was too incompetent to get on the ballot in so many districts, if he does manage to cling to a 50-50 popular vote in OH, he will come away with many fewer delegates than Romney.

MJBrutus on March 5, 2012 at 6:07 PM

But Romney is a Democrat . . .an immediate disqualifier.

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 6:27 PM

This ticks me off that the candidate is already selected way before the primary hits my state (California). Why can’t we have them all on one day?

Decoski on March 5, 2012 at 10:32 PM

The GOP deserves another 4 years of Obama, if Romney gets the nod.

Sparky5253 on March 5, 2012 at 3:12 PM

So you’re saying we don’t deserve 4 more years of Obama if we nominate Santorum, a man who wasn’t competent enough to get on the ballot in Virginia, Indiana, and 33% of Ohio?

I’m getting really tired of wild statements like yours here at Hot Air.

scotash on March 6, 2012 at 1:11 AM

Sparky5253 on March 5, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Excuse me, you said Gingrich. I forgot we Republicans are supposed to be the party of immoral politicians now. My bad. /

scotash on March 6, 2012 at 1:13 AM

But Romney is a Democrat . . .an immediate disqualifier.

Pragmatic on March 5, 2012 at 6:27 PM

True, and what about this story:

Romney taking huge donations from Climate Change lobbyists.

Granted it is a “Politico” story, but still it does raise eyebrows.

Here’s a little piece from the story:

“Julian Robertson, founder of the Tiger Management hedge fund, helped put cap-and-trade legislation on the map with $60 million in contributions …..

Now, Robertson has given $1.25 million to Romney’s Restore our Future super PAC, plus the maximum $2,500 to the Romney campaign.

Other green-minded financial backers may not be giving as much as Robertson, but they still share the view that climate-change science and a solid environmental agenda wouldn’t be a lost cause if Romney won the White House.

Vote for Newt, the smartest guy in the room.

JeffVader on March 6, 2012 at 1:39 AM

Politco reports that big money greens, expecting a “flip” from Mitt on global warming, are big contributors to Romney! Including $1.25 million (to PAC) from Julian Robertson, who has also donated $60 million to the Environmental Defense Fund, and “helped put cap-and-trade legislation on the map.”
Vote Not Romney

anotherJoe on March 6, 2012 at 1:54 AM

Comment pages: 1 2