Santorum’s Ohio delegate problem

posted at 1:00 pm on March 3, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

As Ed already reported, the race in Ohio is looking like it will come down to the wire between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. The most recent momentum seems to be on Romney’s side, but Santorum could still pull it out at the 11th hour. But even if Rick Santorum manages to win in the Buckeye state, he may not win win. As it turns out, he could take the popular vote and still lose as many as 25% of the state’s delegates. The reason is that once again a campaign may have failed to field the required ground game needed to dot all the i’s and cross all the t’s.

Even if Rick Santorum wins Ohio on Super Tuesday, he won’t be able to claim all of its delegates. In fact, he is at risk of forfeiting more than one-quarter of them.

In three of the state’s 16 congressional districts, including two that are near Ohio’s border with Pennsylvania, Santorum will lose any delegates he might have won because his campaign failed to meet the state’s eligibility requirements months ago.

Those three districts alone take 9 delegates out of a total of 66 off the table for Santorum.

But it gets worse: Nine more Ohio delegates may also be in jeopardy.

Sources say that in six other congressional districts — the third, fourth, eighth, tenth, twelfth and sixteenth — Santorum submitted fewer names than required to be eligible for all three delegates up-for-grabs in each district.

That means even if he wins in those places, he might not be able to receive the full contingent of delegates.

Santorum, much like Newt, was struggling in the early going with a poorly funded and largely overlooked campaign. The national map for this election is vast and complex, with different rules applying in nearly every state in terms of election laws and requirements. We already saw how Virginia slipped away from everyone except Mitt and Ron Paul for precisely the same reason.

This is one area where experience really counts, and I’m not talking about experience in leadership, legislation or governing. The very act of running a political campaign requires an entirely separate set of skills and talent. Romney has been through this process once from beginning to end and his well funded team knew all the rules. The same can be said for Ron Paul. Santorum and Gingrich lacked that experience and depth of talent on the bench and seem to be paying the price for that lack of preparation over and over again.

More on this story from Outside the Beltway.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Sanctimonious never ran a business or an organization. He is just a professional politician and lobbyist. His incompetence in management is strikingly demonstrated by his slipshod campaign organization. And you trust him with managing the country and guiding it away the brink of economic collapse?

galtani on March 3, 2012 at 5:07 PM

@ galtani

District 18: 630

I left out district 18

He got 600 in district 5, 8, and 18.

All the other campaigns got more than 600 per district.

Santorum folks were saying they would challenge them getting more than 600 valid per district.

Santorum didn’t put in the effort of the other campaigns to get on the ballot.

He also missed the ballot in indiana and complained about redistricting in a district. He complained they had allowed petitions before redistricting in july. Redistricting shouldn’t have been a surprise as it is mandated.

ryandan on March 3, 2012 at 5:07 PM

And on Virginia at least perry and newt tried to get on the ballot. Newt hired a firm and they guy forged signatures and perry didn’t have 400 per district and neither did newt.

Santorum didn’t make any attempt at all in virginia and yet you hear that the establishment is keeping him off the ballot there when he made zero attempt to get any signatures in virginia.

ryandan on March 3, 2012 at 5:09 PM

OHIO Surge?

Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer
Ohio always looms large in presidential politics, especially among Republicans. Beginning with Abraham Lincoln, no GOP candidate has ever been elected president without Ohio’s electoral votes. In any Republican strategy to unseat President Barack Obama this November, Ohio is a must-win state. … Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is the only remaining Republican contender capable of that.

Romney Deserves Ohio’s support
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Republican voters can no longer ignore the obvious: There is only one GOP candidate for president who has the temperament, character and discipline to lead the nation. One candidate with the business experience and management skills befitting a chief executive. One candidate who can appeal to a broad enough spectrum of voters to win in November. That candidate is Mitt Romney.

http://mittromney.com/news/articles

g2825m on March 3, 2012 at 5:11 PM

It’s pretty much over. It will be Romney.

Malachi45 on March 3, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Virginia was bad; this is a tragedy, for the Santorum campaign.

It’s a major humiliation.

What other argument IS THERE to make for Rick Santorum? It’s basic:

If you can’t get on the ballot, you obviously do not rate serious consideration to be the party’s NOMINEE.

mountainaires on March 3, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Romney spent a month carpet bombing Santorum for earmarks and here he is in tape bragging about getting money from the feds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgYLBk_0t6w

karenhasfreedom on March 3, 2012 at 5:21 PM

In return for allowing Santorum the chance to get 44 delegates in illinios Santorum has accused Romney of rigging CPAC.
ryandan on March 3, 2012 at 4:39 PM

but why exactly are they doing this? Romney campaign that is..after all it’s a competition/contest, not charitable action…why do they let Santorum have a shot at the 44 delegates in IL? What’s the rational of Romney campaign? Not to mention that when you think about the dirty tricks Santorum resorted to in MI (and that backfired greatly, I have to admit), it’s mind boggling that they let this clown get away with his and his campaign crass incompetence? The least that one’d expect is that candidates get on to ballots on their merit…is this so much to ask? you didn’t make it on the ballots, you shouldn’t have a go at delegate votes in the respective area/county/state, it’s that simple…I thought that Romney campaign wants to get done and over with this all and wrap up the primaries sooner rather than later…

jimver on March 3, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Malachi45 on March 3, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Fair enough. I do think the entire issue was a clever political setup by the Dems to try and pull the election towards social issues, frame Repubs as crazies, and make it so Obama wouldn’t have to run on his awful record. Interestingly enough, Santorum took the bait and is sinking for it.

1984 in real life on March 3, 2012 at 5:27 PM

rationale, not rational…

jimver on March 3, 2012 at 5:30 PM

OHIO Surge?

Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer
Ohio always looms large in presidential politics, especially among Republicans. Beginning with Abraham Lincoln, no GOP candidate has ever been elected president without Ohio’s electoral votes. In any Republican strategy to unseat President Barack Obama this November, Ohio is a must-win state. … Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is the only remaining Republican contender capable of that.

Romney Deserves Ohio’s support
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Republican voters can no longer ignore the obvious: There is only one GOP candidate for president who has the temperament, character and discipline to lead the nation. One candidate with the business experience and management skills befitting a chief executive. One candidate who can appeal to a broad enough spectrum of voters to win in November. That candidate is Mitt Romney.

http://mittromney.com/news/articles

g2825m on March 3, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I despise the fact that the media keeps trying to push Romney on us. The Democrats want him nominated. The leftists want him nominated. Conservatives don’t want him. The constant repetition of the narrative that he is already the nominee (and, apparently, has been for the last five years) and that he is the only one who can beat Obama is laughable, wrong and insulting.

There is no way that I could vote for him in November. If he is the Republican nominee, then I will have to vote Libertarian (barring a major Perot style independent run cropping up).

Theophile on March 3, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Mitt has never had the courage to be a conservative when it mattered.

fight like a girl on March 3, 2012 at 1:18 PM

BINGO.

ddrintn on March 3, 2012 at 1:19 PM

I have never liked that Mitt Romney was basically quiet during the 2 years the Democrats had control of everything, and were throwing pooh. Sarah Palin was the only one shoveling the stuff back at them, and even Santy was trying on his Friday Morning in America stints. Did not hear much from Newt either, but I didn’t think he was a player then either. We all knew Romney was…and he was quiet.

KOOLAID2 on March 3, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Campaigning is different than governing, to be sure, but the skills are overlapping. Failure to even get on the ballot everywhere one needs to be in the primary season is not a strong argument for either success in the general or success in office.

I don’t expect most Ohio voters who will be affected even know about this. It won’t be good for Santorum when they find out, either ahead of time or in the voting booth. If pollsters are using usual methods, they won’t be accounting for it. Gingrich and Romney will do much better than expected in exit polls and results, and Santorum much worse. The unusual discrepancy will demand an explanation, with much attention to Santorum’s campaign and its multiple failures. If he admits fault, he looks bad, if he tries to shift the blame, he looks worse.

Confutus on March 3, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Theophile on March 3, 2012 at 5:36 PM

These are just newspaper endorsements. Nobody is forcing you to do anything. You probably like it when newpapers endorse your candidate. Right?

bluealice on March 3, 2012 at 5:40 PM

The state party says it has not faced this situation before, but it has been reviewing its bylaws and is prepared, if there is a challenge, to convene what it calls a “committee on contests.”

State Republican Chairman Kevin DeWine would appoint three party members to the committee, and they would make a recommendation to the state party’s central committee, which would rule.

If Santorum or another candidate did not like the ruling, he could appeal to the Republican National Committee.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/03/rick_santorum_faces_bigger_ohi.html

Are Kevin and Mike DeWine related?

mountainaires on March 3, 2012 at 5:43 PM

In return for allowing Santorum the chance to get 44 delegates in illinios Santorum has accused Romney of rigging CPAC.
ryandan on March 3, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Everybody gets a trophy..remember. Santorum wants a participation trophy.

bluealice on March 3, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Everybody gets a trophy..remember. Santorum wants a participation trophy.

bluealice on March 3, 2012 at 5:47 PM

yeah, but even said participation is not on merit…he’s pretty much tolerated in said contests due to Romney campaign’s magnanimity… he didn’t actually qualify on the ballots in those places…it is really pathetic…

jimver on March 3, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Malachi45 on March 3, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Fair enough. I do think the entire issue was a clever political setup by the Dems to try and pull the election towards social issues, frame Repubs as crazies, and make it so Obama wouldn’t have to run on his awful record. Interestingly enough, Santorum took the bait and is sinking for it.

1984 in real life on March 3, 2012 at 5:27 PM

I think that’s about right. I have to confess a little relief that it’s going to be Romney rather than Santorum. I still prefer Santorum, but we won’t have to fight this battle non-stop during the general. With Santorum it was going to be a non stop effort by the media/Dems to make it about religion and birth control. With Romney it’s going to be class warfare, he’s out of touch, rich guys suck. Both will be be frustrating. But my take on this is that the Republican doesn’t have to be great, just an acceptable alternative to Obama. It’s really going to be a referendum about Obama.

Now, as to how Romney will govern? That’s anyone’s guess.

Malachi45 on March 3, 2012 at 5:54 PM

I despise the fact that the media keeps trying to push Romney on us. The Democrats want him nominated. The leftists want him nominated. Conservatives don’t want him. The constant repetition of the narrative that he is already the nominee (and, apparently, has been for the last five years) and that he is the only one who can beat Obama is laughable, wrong and insulting.

There is no way that I could vote for him in November. If he is the Republican nominee, then I will have to vote Libertarian (barring a major Perot style independent run cropping up).

Theophile on March 3, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Are you really that clueless, or just willfully ignorant? Democrats PROVED they want to face Santorum in Michigan. They gave him and extra 3.5% of the vote. Did you watch any of the election analysis after? Santorum had full union backing, support from Michael Moore, and Obama spent money trying to hurt Romney in Michigan. Did you not read that Detroit Free press article linked on Drudge for days? oh right, Drudge is “in the tank” for Romney. Since when is MATT DRUDGE establishment? lol

Wake up. It has been reported in almost every media outlet, and openly talked about among Liberals. They want to face Santorum. The “establishment” (big social con media outlets) like Rush, Hannity, Levin etc. want Santorum to run, and lose so they have another 4 years of high ratings. This is all common sense, but some people still buy into the “Romney = RHINO ESTABLUSHMINT DERP” meme and it’s annoying.

1984 in real life on March 3, 2012 at 6:00 PM

The pollsters and establishment shills are in hyper overdrive to give us Romney which guarantees 4 more years of Obama.

See how easy this is to analyze?

fight like a girl on March 3, 2012 at 1:09 PM

fightgirl – I guess this is why the DNC and labor unions are doing their best to thwart a Romney nomination while pushing primary victories for Rick Santorum. In fact, Sen Santorum himself, asks for the democrats’ assistance. THAT is just too creepy for me.

If you review polling match-ups between Obama and each GOPer, Romney comes out as winner far more than RS, Newt or Paul
If you are pining for a Paul or a Newt nomination, then sadly nothing I can say will make any sort of sense to you.

BabysCatz on March 3, 2012 at 6:05 PM

BabysCatz on March 3, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Don’t bother trying to reason with the rabid, extra chromosome wing of the GOP. They’ll believe whatever they want to believe.

1984 in real life on March 3, 2012 at 6:07 PM

How many dang signatures to you need in a Ohio district? Seems cumbersome.

AshleyTKing on March 3, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Don’t bother trying to reason with the rabid, extra chromosome wing of the GOP. They’ll believe whatever they want to believe.

1984 in real life on March 3, 2012 at 6:07 PM

aww, wasn’t G.H.Bush skewered for his use of this terminology? :)…as correct as he might have been :-)…

jimver on March 3, 2012 at 6:15 PM

State Sen. Stacey Campfield, co-chairman of Newt Gingrich’s campaign in Tennessee, announced today he is quitting that position to support Rick Santorum in the Republican presidential race.

Jumping off the sinking ship, onto the one that’s leaking badly and headed for an iceberg?

Confutus on March 3, 2012 at 6:18 PM

If Romney, Gingrich and Paul are smart, they are running around Ohio (or have folks who are) telling people that Rick didn’t care enough about Ohioans to fill out the paperwork or do the legwork to earn their votes. Pretty poor effort. Thanks, Rick.

Kind of off-topic: I love this link on the Headlines section of the HA home page.

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=122670

For the folks who live in uberlib areas, such as large cities, print off the images and stick handbills all over town. I think I will use these in the university areas of Pittsburgh and pretty much every square inch of Philadelphia.

Cheers.

Philly on March 3, 2012 at 6:21 PM

In return for allowing Santorum the chance to get 44 delegates in illinios Santorum has accused Romney of rigging CPAC.
ryandan on March 3, 2012 at 4:39 PM

but why exactly are they doing this? Romney campaign that is..after all it’s a competition/contest, not charitable action…why do they let Santorum have a shot at the 44 delegates in IL? What’s the rational of Romney campaign? Not to mention that when you think about the dirty tricks Santorum resorted to in MI (and that backfired greatly, I have to admit), it’s mind boggling that they let this clown get away with his and his campaign crass incompetence? The least that one’d expect is that candidates get on to ballots on their merit…is this so much to ask? you didn’t make it on the ballots, you shouldn’t have a go at delegate votes in the respective area/county/state, it’s that simple…I thought that Romney campaign wants to get done and over with this all and wrap up the primaries sooner rather than later…

jimver on March 3, 2012 at 5:22 PM

My best guess as to why the Romney campaign allowed Santorum to have a shot at the 44 delegates in Illinois despite his inability to properly qualify is can you imagine the sh!t that would have been directed at Romney if he hadn’t? Already people are trying to excuse Santorum’s incompetence in properly qualifying for races (whether in delegate count or being on the ballot at all) based on funding, experience, or whatever b.s. excuse they can rationalize (despite Santorum being a lawyer & a former US Senator, thus knowing how elections work). Just imagine if the could somehow blame Romney — it would be a sh!t storm to end all sh!t storms.

Dark Star on March 3, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Turnout way up in Washington.

People being turned away from caucus places.

joana on March 3, 2012 at 6:42 PM

based on funding, experience, or whatever b.s. excuse they can rationalize (despite Santorum being a lawyer & a former US Senator, thus knowing how elections work). Just imagine if the could somehow blame Romney — it would be a sh!t storm to end all sh!t storms.

Dark Star on March 3, 2012 at 6:21 PM

he doesn’t have the funding, the experience or whatever B.S excuse, then he should stay the heck away of this race, he has no business being in the presidential run then…

jimver on March 3, 2012 at 6:48 PM

This is what I don’t understand about this whole contraception argument. Contraception, by definition lowers the amount of abortions every year by preventing unwanted or accidental pregnancies. To oppose it, seems like the antithesis of conservatism.

Because it also leads to the likes of Sandra “Subsidize my reproductive rights recreational sex” Fluke?
Contraception is a good thing for the government to stay out of entirely.

Confutus on March 3, 2012 at 6:59 PM

In Washington , with 7% of precincts reporting

Romney 31%
Paul 27%
Santorum 24%
Gingrich 14%

galtani on March 3, 2012 at 7:00 PM

In Washington , with 7% of precincts reporting
Romney 31%
Paul 27%
Santorum 24%
Gingrich 14%
galtani on March 3, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Odd that there’s no HA point re: WA.

whatcat on March 3, 2012 at 7:10 PM

HA post I mean. Oy.

whatcat on March 3, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Mitt is running away with it in WA with more than 30 percent of the precincts reporting. Paul in second.

Philly on March 3, 2012 at 8:31 PM

The unelectable bigot Rick Santorum’s campaign is a total joke.

The bigot Santorum has been unable to win a single primary that wasn’t merely a beauty contest. It is time for Rick Santorum to drop out of the race.

The theocrat bigot Rick Santorum’s campaign is so pathetic that they couldn’t even file the proper paperwork beforehand. Rick Santorum is a guy who would lose to Barack Obama in a landslide, and that is why you have Democrats right now cheering him on… they want an easy opponent for Obama.

Rick Santorum needs to go away! He’s nothing but a whiny, judgemental, embarrassing extreme social conservative.

bluegill on March 3, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Ed Morrissey, where is the separate post about Mitt Romney’s impressive win in Washington State tonight? It should have a stand alone post, please.

This is a significant victory for Americans who want to see their country put back on the right track and who want to see Barack Obama given the boot.

Romney is winning strong support from voters of a wide range of demographic and ideological categories.

Mitt Romney, a great man and a class act, is the strongest candidate, BY FAR.

Voters know that Mitt Romney is the guy who can and WILL defeat Barack Obama.

GO MITT!!

bluegill on March 3, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Remember how Santorum was whining that he “won” Michigan because he had 15 delegates and Romney had 15 delegates?!

of course, Romney had 30,000 more votes, but who cares about that. And then the Michigan GOP stated that their laws showed Romney won with 16 delegates to 14 delegates..

so if Santorum wins the popular vote but loses the delegate count to Romney in Ohio, will he remain consistent and congratulate Mitt on a hard victory?!

yeah right… I don’t think there will be enough liberal democrats voting for Ricky to pull him over the finish line this time!

AirForceCane on March 3, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Anyone care to explain how RS can win the nomination?

MeatHeadinCA on March 3, 2012 at 1:11 PM

He can’t.

AirForceCane on March 3, 2012 at 9:22 PM

1984 in real life on March 3, 2012 at 6:00 PM

-
To be fair to the ABRs – drudge- as well as Hewitt- may not be “establishment”-whatever the hell that is- but they are the pre-eminent media forces of the right- and yes probably have more influence than FOX

FlaMurph on March 3, 2012 at 10:18 PM

If the Plain Dealer supports Romney that means they think Obama can beat him. Nothing about the city of Cleveland or the Plain Dealer is Republican, and certainly not Conservative. And there is a lot of support for Ron Paul in the state. Hey, it gave us Dennis Kucinich.

Deanna on March 3, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Santorum (and Bachmann) DID attempt to qualify for the Virginia ballot. Neither campaign came close enough to the required number to have any chance, so neither turned in the signatures they did collect. This is very common practice – why bother turning in 9000 if 10K is required?

But there is little excuse for the Ohio glitch, and Virginia has been his home state since he was still representing PA in the Senate.

Isn’t the FIRST thing a competent candidate would do before jumping in the race be to hold a meeting and get the details on getting on all the state ballots – numbers, deadlines, special rules? It seems pretty basic – you can’t win if you aren’t on the ballot.

Minor candidates with less money and support have qualified for all these ballots in the past. The process isn’t onerous. But you do have to make the effort.

But don’t worry, even though he can’t run a competent campaign, he’ll do a grrrrrrrreat job as President because . . . his supporters say so?

Adjoran on March 3, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Mish Shedlock did “the math” for Ohio:

Ohio Prediction:

Santorum is not on the ballot in 3 of 13 districts.

See Family of three GOP delegates gets Santorum on ballot in an Ohio district for an explanation.

Ohio Predictions
Of the 15 at-large

Romney: 7
Santorum: 8

Of 16 Districts

Romney wins 3 by default and 6 contested for 27 delegates
Santorum wins 7 contested for 21 delegates

State Party Leaders give Romney 2, Santorum 1

Totals
Romney: 36
Santorum: 30

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/super-tuesday-delegate-rules-and.html
See also:

mountainaires on March 4, 2012 at 8:36 AM

Mitt Romney got twice as many votes in Washington as Rick Santorum.

It wasn’t even close. It was a one-man contest with Santorum and Ron Paul vying for 2nd place in the distance.

It’s pathetic that Ed can’t be bothered to notice.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73577.html

mountainaires on March 4, 2012 at 8:44 AM

If you can’t get on the ballot, you obviously do not rate serious consideration to be the party’s NOMINEE.

mountainaires on March 3, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Agreed. The failures show a lack of administrative ability — one of the reasons the current officeholder is so terrible. Sure, The One’s policies are awful, too, but they are magnified by his administrative failures.

Only one of the remaining candidates has the administrative experience to do the job.

EconomicNeocon on March 4, 2012 at 11:29 AM

While the “anyone but Romney” GOPers are arguing their points in “comments” sections of political/conservative websites across the blogosphere, everyday GOP voters with a “normal” interest in politics, spread across the 4 corners of this great country, are consolidating behind Mitt Romney. They have the common sense to see that Romney has the only viable road to the nomination and the only legitimate chance of beating Obama. They want this fight to start now. As each day passes and new issues arise for this country, they want to hear one unified voice against Obama and not four different opinions coming in all different directions. Super Tuesday needs to be the end to this madness, there is just too much at stake. “Anyone but Romney” GOPers – nice try though…….

BabysCatz on March 4, 2012 at 11:41 AM

This is basic campaigning. Nobody has no business running for the nomination if he’s too disorganized to get on the ballot in all states and precincts.

Screw ups of this order in a Presidential Campaign should be disqualifying, and if people weren’t so focused on stopping Romney, they’d admit that. You may not think Romney can win, but Santorum and Gingrich definitely can’t and neither one has shown the capacity for organization and control that running the government would take,

flataffect on March 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Santorum is not ready for prime time, never mind the Presidency!

Sparky5253 on March 4, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Why are people upset that Romney is trying to occupy the middle. Unless the Mark Levin lovers go home and pout the middle wins elections in this country.

aloysiusmiller on March 4, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Word out in the field is that Rick Santorum is bleeding support like crazy. Rick Santorum is losing supporters in droves.

Everyone is fleeing the sinking Rick Santorum ship!

bluegill on March 4, 2012 at 10:45 PM

I voted about an hour ago here in Ohio. In addition to the last 4 standing, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry were on my ballot. I wonder how many folks will waste a vote on one of them?

EconomicNeocon on March 6, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Comment pages: 1 2