Rasmussen: Romney within 2 in Ohio
posted at 11:00 am on March 2, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
Rasmussen corroborates the Q-poll from earlier today showing that Mitt Romney has made up significant ground on Rick Santorum in the key Super Tuesday state of Ohio. While Quinnipiac conducted its survey from Tuesday through Thursday this week, Rasmussen conducted its survey of 750 likely voters entirely yesterday. Two weeks after being 18 points behind Santorum in Ohio, Rasmussen now has him within two:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Primary Voters in Ohio, taken last night, shows former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum attracting 33% of the vote and Mitt Romney earning 31%. That’s a significant tightening of the race. Two weeks ago, Santorum led Romney by 18 percentage points.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is now in third place with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 11% support. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided.
Conventional wisdom is that the continuing candidacy of Newt Gingrich helps Romney, but Rasmussen finds that Romney does slightly better when Gingrich is taken out of the equation:
If it’s a two-man race, Santorum and Romney are tied at 43% each. That, too, represents a huge change. Two weeks ago, Santorum led Romney by 28 points in a head-to-head matchup in Ohio.
The crosstabs are similar to those in the Q-poll this morning. There is almost no difference between men and women and the overall margin, so Santorum has no “gender gap” in Ohio. Santorum does better among younger voters, while Romney has a 15-point edge among seniors. The split between “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative” are nearly mirror images again, 45/25 for Santorum among the former and 42/24 for Romney among the latter. Santorum wins Republicans by three, while Romney wins independents by three. The one interesting difference between the two is that Santorum was winning the highest income group in the Q-poll, while he trails Romney in Rasmussen by six among those who earn more than $100K.
The race is still obviously in flux, and it should be a nailbiter this weekend. Both men have about the same favorability rating in Rasmussen as well as Quinnipiac (66/31 Romney, 67/29 Santorum), so that won’t be a hinge for late-breaking deciders. The biggest factor that could come into play from the Rasmussen poll is the candidate strength question, which Romney wins 45/25 and gets a consensus double-digit lead across almost all demos (only a four-point lead among very conservative voters and two points among Tea Party voters, however). Santorum will have to make the case in Ohio that he’s better positioned to beat Barack Obama in the fall, especially since a plurality of 49% say that’s the most important quality in choosing a nominee.
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Now there’s a dusty old name…I haven’t seen that sketch for at least ten years. Still remember it was funny!
MelonCollie on March 16, 2013 at 7:35 AM
Cheers:)
There is some amazing irony in your commentary – someone who sounds remarkably like a spoiled child calling me “juvenile” and “deliberately obtuse” for not being able to make sense of your delusional fantasies. I’ll have to leave it to others to make sense of your blatherings – which begin with the false premise- that the narcissistic Marxist grifter Obama and Romney are like ideological fraternal twins. It then wanders off into something I can’t comprehend. I gather it has something to do with being pissed off that Sarah Palin didn’t run as a third party Tea Party candidate, and thus being left with no choice but to stomp your foot, pick up your ball, and stay home? Or maybe you had Ron Paul in mind? Who the hell knows. I’m not going to waste any more time trying to make sense of your nonsensical ‘analysis’.
Buy Danish on March 16, 2013 at 8:37 AM
Romney did not rise to the occasion in the election, so why expect him to do so here?
Sherman1864 on March 16, 2013 at 11:40 AM
He lost by 3%, not a blow out, but a loss is a loss. He is a good and accomplished man who would have been a far better president than Obama who had no real accomplishments before his political life began. Romney isn’t a conservative and maybe that is why he lost but he is a respectable and humble man.
Dollayo on March 17, 2013 at 2:05 AM
He should be sorry he lost because he passed on the opportunity to unseat the Liar of Benghazi (oh, yes, where is that report now? What has the admnistration discovered?).
In a sense, this lack of political judgment disqualified him. We should have known not to nominate a person unable to beat McCain.
virgo on March 17, 2013 at 3:55 PM
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