PPP: Santorum up by 10 among election-day voters in MI

How close will tonight’s contests in Arizona and Michigan be?  The Arizona primary looks so much like a blowout for Mitt Romney that the Arizona Republic didn’t bother to write a front-page story about it, only offering a not about checking the paper’s website for election results later tonight.  Michigan will be the battleground tonight, and Public Policy Polling says that Rick Santorum may have recaptured the momentum over the weekend — but with a twist:

It’s always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum’s direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn’t already voted, Santorum’s advantage was 41-31.

Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that’s actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum’s up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they’re only 8% of the likely electorate that’s enough to put him over the top. The big question now is whether those folks will actually bother to show up and vote tomorrow.

It’s not all due to Operation Chaos, or Insanity, or whatever it’s called.  Romney may have booted Michigan over the weekend:

Romney hasn’t made a good last impression on Michigan voters. His favorability in Sunday interviews was 57/36, but in Monday interviews it was only 47/48. Santorum saw little difference in his reviews between the two days: 54/39 on Sunday and 56/36 on Monday. If Romney does indeed end up losing tomorrow there’s not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.

It might also be that Santorum has been emphasizing economics the last few days in Michigan.  He took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to compare tax plans.  Santorum borrowed Newt Gingrich’s criticism that Romney only wants to tinker around the edges, and added a swipe at Romney’s “last-minute conversion” to tax reform as well as repeating the accusation of Romney being an “Occupy Wall Street” candidate:

Meanwhile, my opponent in the Republican primaries, Mitt Romney, had a last-minute conversion. Attempting to distract from his record of tax and fee increases as governor of Massachusetts, poor job creation, and aggressive pursuit of earmarks, he now says he wants to follow my lead and lower individual as well as corporate marginal tax rates.

It’s a good start. But it doesn’t go nearly far enough. He says his proposed tax cuts would be revenue neutral and, borrowing the language of Occupy Wall Street, promises the top 1% will pay for the cuts. No pro-growth tax policy there, just more Obama-style class warfare.

Will this be enough to carry Michigan over the lead Romney presumably has built in early voting?  Having a ten-point advantage on Election Day would be significant if it remains, especially since only 17% of PPP’s sample say they have voted early — but Romney has a 27-point lead among them, 56/29.  Assuming that the Monday-only numbers and the early voting figures from PPP are accurate and predictive, a turnout like the one in 2008 would result in a narrow victory for Santorum, 38.9% to 35.2%.  That would produce a nearly even split in delagates, but give Santorum a boost heading into Super Tuesday.  If he can’t close the deal in Michigan, then next week will be a very tough sell.

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