Poll: 50% now say Obama doesn’t deserve reelection

posted at 4:15 pm on February 23, 2012 by Allahpundit

After yesterday’s descent into hardcore eeyorism, I owe you this morale booster.

Don’t thank me. Thank Guy Benson for the pep talk.

American voters say 54 – 43 percent that the economy has begun to recover, a 51-point shift in opinion since September 1, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. This is a reversal from a September 1 survey in which voters said 68 – 28 percent the economy was not in recovery…

But the improved voter confidence does not help President Barack Obama who gets a negative 45 – 49 percent job approval rating, compared to negative 44 – 50 percent rating November 23. Voters say 50 – 45 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection, compared to 48 – 45 percent saying no in November.

The economy’s getting better but, after a big rebound in November, his reelection numbers are getting worse:

Not sure how to explain that. It could be that as we creep closer to the election and voters start to tune in, they’re taking stock of his presidency and giving thumbs down notwithstanding the growth in jobs last month. (Criticism of Obama at the GOP debates, which have drawn big audiences, has surely helped.) Corroborating evidence: When Gallup polled respondents on how successful Hopenchange has been, fully 50 percent deemed O a failure versus 44 percent who said he’s a success — numbers nearly identical to what Quinnipiac found when it asked whether he deserves reelection. If the election was a pure referendum on The One, we’d be sitting pretty.

But of course, it isn’t:

This is revealing too:

As you’d expect, O’s share of the blame is increasing the longer he’s in office, but that majority that blames Bush is awfully stubborn. In fact, per the crosstabs, 55 percent of independents still say Dubya is more culpable than Obama. Makes me wonder if the hype over last month’s jobless numbers might end up being a curse for O in the long run. It’s easier to blame Bush for high unemployment if the unemployment rate stays flat; the more it dips and then starts to inflate again, the more likely voters are to conclude that it’s reacting to O’s policies, which in turn means he’ll bear more of the blame politically. Remember, Gallup’s already predicted based on its mid-month data that the unemployment rate will rise next month. If it happens, I’ll be mighty curious to see what the Bush/Obama blame game numbers look like in March.

Lots more interesting data at the link, including rosy numbers for the left on O’s contraception mandate and Planned Parenthood, but since this is supposed to be a morale booster, I’ll leave you with this:

Note the numbers among Democrats and independents. Exit question via Philip Klein: Is it worth trying to forecast the election now knowing that the Supreme Court’s ObamaCare decision will drastically change the dynamics of the race one way or the other?


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By all that is holy what, exactly, are people basing this opinion (and, frankly, that’s all it can be) that the economy is improving??? What am I missing? There are no significant, accurate statistics pointing to that. Real unemployment is close to 11%. We’ve got the lowest labor participation rate in 40 years. We’re not adding enough jobs to even match population growth. More people are on government assistance than ever. Food and fuel prices are rising. Housing remains in the dumps with the backlog of foreclosures about to hit. Where is the improvement? Are people just so tired of this long slump that they are trying to convince themselves that things are better, even though they aren’t? Or (shudder) are there really enough stooges out there who are buying the media’s and the adminstration’s BS about our recovering non-recovery (never mind that it was supposed to have recovered during recovery summer two years ago).

natasha333 on February 23, 2012 at 5:39 PM

quantitatively ease this Bernanke! *foul gesture*

DHChron on February 23, 2012 at 5:39 PM

As much as I loved W., he did do some stupid sh!t. Bernanke, Paulson, Chrissy Todd, NCLB, MedD, Lehman bailout, etc.

Lanceman on February 23, 2012 at 5:45 PM

I would have liked to have seen a double blinded question on keystone. the first one was good but I am curious, as a Poli-sci major and having done these types of surveys, to have one other question for comparison: “create jobs many of them union“. The truckers are definitely unionized as are many in the oil industry refineries, the mechanics, etc. So with 4 more words added onto the end of that sentence, I’m wondering what the numbers would have been? Interesting to think about – having 2 sentences out there and seeing which one plays better even though both are 100% true, its just the populace is uneducated to that truth.

athenadelphi on February 23, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Lanceman on February 23, 2012 at 5:45 PM

stupid bullsh!t = compassionate conservatism

DHChron on February 23, 2012 at 5:50 PM

The American people have spoken! The science is settled! I hope this poll is put into a campaign ad ASAP.

Vigilante on February 23, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Oh, fercrissakes. The economy is NOT getting better.

Does anyone think for themselves anymore or do even “conservatives” just repeat the Valerie Jarrett talking point of the day?!

Please do yourselves a favor and read some financial/economic blogs once in a while. One cannot live on “culture war” dogma alone, you know.

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/

http://www.zerohedge.com/

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

mountainaires on February 23, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Oh, fercrissakes. The economy is NOT getting better.

Does anyone think for themselves anymore or do even “conservatives” just repeat the Valerie Jarrett talking point of the day?!

Please do yourselves a favor and read some financial/economic blogs once in a while.

mountainaires on February 23, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Who you talking to, dawg? Certainly not any of us. We KNOW the economy ain’t getting better.

Lanceman on February 23, 2012 at 6:01 PM

mountainaires on February 23, 2012 at 5:55 PM

tru dat

DHChron on February 23, 2012 at 6:02 PM

I think he’s calling out Allah for saying this:

The economy’s getting better but, after a big rebound in November, his reelection numbers are getting worse:

DHChron on February 23, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Speaking for myself, if the economy is getting slightly better, it is despite Obama. I think there are a lot of others that think the same. They’re wondering why is it taking so long to rebound, and Obama gets the blame. That’s why the economy could improve and Obama’s approval stays low. Energy costs aren’t going to help him either.

moo on February 23, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Look, not only isn’t the media taking this administration to task it’s also helping cover for them. They keep repeating the same lies over and over again until a proportion of the population respond. People want to feel good so they choose to eat this tripe. They tore W a new one over gas prices but Dianne Sawyer was just on TV swearing that the current pres can do nothing about it. You see it’s all the evil oil companies and the republicans that prop them up. You see it’s W’s fault still. I can’t stand this. I’m going to take the blue pill and think what I want.

ghettogasman on February 23, 2012 at 6:15 PM

We KNOW the economy ain’t getting better.

Lanceman on February 23, 2012 at 6:01 PM

My daughter works in retail, and I work in food service. (Both of us are underemployed.)

Both industries have seen significant uptick in financial activity in both December and again in February. To the undiscerning eye, “the economy is better” because consumers are disposing of more income (though they don’t necessarily have more to dispose of.)

In December, retail sales were up because consumers admitted that they were tired of going without; they didn’t necessarily have more income to dispose of, but they had learned to live with lower expectations and added more debt for the first Christmas in several years. Retailers cooperated by lowering their prices 25-40% in order to convert inventory into cash without seeing any real profit that would provide for growth in the coming year.

By January life was back to normal. Belts were tight again as credit came due.

But February is here, and the 50% of Americans who pay no taxes have already filed their taxes and gotten their EIC check back. Those Americans have more disposable income right now than they will for the entire rest of the year. So they think the economy is better.

But the fundamentals of a growing economy–businesses making profit and expanding for future growth and hiring needed employees and expanding revenues and tax base–are not affected long-term by tax refund checks.

As gas prices continue to rise, the summertime will be truly miserable for anyone not getting a government check. Then all these people will inevitably change their tunes–again.

rwenger43 on February 23, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Note the numbers among Democrats and independents.

And this is KEY.

The “Bradley Effect” is strong with lib-tards and indies.

Tim_CA on February 23, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Barry’s fortune will rapidly bounce up after the country get to know his genius solution to the energy problem : algae.

galtani on February 23, 2012 at 6:26 PM

What amazes me is that you actually seriously quote AP polls. I mean my God, they have never believed more than 25% of the electorate is Republican in any poll they have ever done.

Ridiculous to even mention them seriously.

mitchellvii on February 23, 2012 at 6:27 PM

GULP!

OxyCon on February 23, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Obama is on the cusp right now.

Wigglesworth on February 23, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Media Matters For America + Valerie Jarrett + Anita Dunn + Axelrod + WH + MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN = Obama is toadally going to win in 2012.

/Not

Key West Reader on February 23, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Voters say 50 – 45 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection,

Who are the 45% who are complete idiots? They shouldn’t be allowed within 50 yards of any voting place.

To be fair, the economy is much bigger than any President can control but we’ve had three years of the jug-eared traitor telling us that socialism and massive spending is the way to improve the economy. That might have been true if the massive debt the bastard amassed actually encouraged the economy instead of paid big dividends to his cronies in the UAW, Solyndra and other sham organizations. Obama didn’t prime the economic pump with all that spending so much as he punched holes in the bottom of the boat.

And yet, despite these facts, there are 45% of respondants to a poll that would re-elect this filthy America-hating socialist traitor because he is black, demoncrat, or whatever. Very sad for America that more people can not see Obama for what he is. WE HEAR ABOUT THE GOP WANTING OTHER CHOICES THAN THE FOUR REMAINING CANDIDATES- WHERE THE HELL ARE DECENT DEMOCRATS WANTING SOME OTHER CHOICE THAN THEIR FILTHY (CORRUPT) INCUMBENT???? I am forced to conclude that there is no such thing as a decent Democrat. That they would suppport Obama no matter what makes them anti-American and traitors to all which this nation stands.

Happy Nomad on February 23, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Is it worth trying to forecast the election now knowing that the Supreme Court’s ObamaCare decision will drastically change the dynamics of the race one way or the other?

Yes, given the possibility that the SCOTUS may elect to punt on reviewing ObamaCare in 2012…

Jeddite on February 23, 2012 at 4:20 PM

As irritating as it would be to see them punt, I wonder if that might actually be good for us… knowing that the fight over Obamacare will continue until after the election could invigorate those opposed to it. By contrast, having Obamacare shot down by the SCOTUS would invigorate those who support it, if they want to override the decision (to paraphrase That One during a SOTU address… “with all due respect to separation of powers, f*** separation of powers”). And of course having Obamacare upheld by the SCOTUS would invigorate our base, but at the terrible price of likely letting it take hold.

Mr. Prodigy on February 23, 2012 at 6:43 PM

rwenger43 on February 23, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Good reporting and analysis. Thanks.

davidk on February 23, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Obama is on the cusp right now.

Wigglesworth on February 23, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Balderdash. Which is a polite way of saying your comment is male cow excrement.

The filthy lying, Muslim-loving, military-hating, European socialist coward is not on the cusp right now. America is. Either we reject this traitor or give him four more years since his equally filthy (corrupt) party is in lockstep behind his agenda.

American will be destroyed if we have four more years of this jug-eared traitor in a position where he can poison our very society at the highest level.

Happy Nomad on February 23, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Wow. A USA Today poll. I wonder what an AP poll would show? So half the country does not believe that O does not DESERVE reelection. I believe that it is higher than that. I wonder how the question was worded. I wonder how the poll was taken (methodology). I wonder what the internals of the polling sample were. Nothing to see here, kids. Just more lies; damn lies; and statistics. It is amazing (but only too well known) the faith that mathematical laymen have in numbers.

The economy is not “getting better”; it is limping sadly along and all observant people know that. Obama’s policies have set us backwards. Employment is stagnant. The dependency class grows ever larger. Energy costs are going up up up. The government share of GDP continues to rise. The trade deficit continues to mount. The Middle East grows more unstable with every passing day. Federal spending remains completely out of control. Federal taxation and regulation of the private business sector shows no signs of abatement.

How could the economy POSSIBLY be doing better? How stupid do they think we are? (Yes, that would be a rhetorical question).

minnesoter on February 23, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Happy Nomad on February 23, 2012 at 6:41 PM

I was recently polled. I told them I was an independent who voted for Obama; loved the Dems, blah blah blah.

I lied, but why not make the fool feel like he’s going to win?

I want to see him packing up and moving on back to Chicago with Wheezy in a snit fit along with the MSM.

Satisfaction.

Key West Reader on February 23, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Sorry, the opener should read: So half the country does not believe that O DESERVES reelection.

minnesoter on February 23, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Just wait until Memorial Day gas prices hit $5/gallon.

WisCon on February 23, 2012 at 7:03 PM

He’s still popular in all 57 states.

search4truth on February 23, 2012 at 4:28 PM

…which includes part of Asia

Wigglesworth on February 23, 2012 at 8:01 PM

My daughter works in retail, and I work in food service. (Both of us are underemployed.)

Both industries have seen significant uptick in financial activity in both December and again in February. To the undiscerning eye, “the economy is better” because consumers are disposing of more income (though they don’t necessarily have more to dispose of.)

In December, retail sales were up because consumers admitted that they were tired of going without; they didn’t necessarily have more income to dispose of, but they had learned to live with lower expectations and added more debt for the first Christmas in several years. Retailers cooperated by lowering their prices 25-40% in order to convert inventory into cash without seeing any real profit that would provide for growth in the coming year.

By January life was back to normal. Belts were tight again as credit came due.

But February is here, and the 50% of Americans who pay no taxes have already filed their taxes and gotten their EIC check back. Those Americans have more disposable income right now than they will for the entire rest of the year. So they think the economy is better.

But the fundamentals of a growing economy–businesses making profit and expanding for future growth and hiring needed employees and expanding revenues and tax base–are not affected long-term by tax refund checks.

As gas prices continue to rise, the summertime will be truly miserable for anyone not getting a government check. Then all these people will inevitably change their tunes–again.

rwenger43 on February 23, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Wow, that’s an incredibly astute analysis. I knew the summer gas prices would turn people’s perceptions around, but I hadn’t thought about the impact of tax returns on the current mindset. You’re right — when that money runs out people are going to be hurting again.

Caiwyn on February 23, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Hmm, 50% for him and 50% against him.

So basically, nothing has changed since he was elected.

hatespam on February 23, 2012 at 8:22 PM

That’s generous, since when do hopeless incompetents get another year to keep screwing up?

We need to can this guy clown, not later. And Biden.

NoDonkey on February 23, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Bumper sticker seen in Oklahoma..

Pray for our President

Psalms 109, Verse 8

Tenwheeler on February 23, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Pray for our President
Psalms 109, Verse 8

That one i could pray for!

lonestar1 on February 23, 2012 at 10:53 PM

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