Poll: Romney on the rise in Arizona?

posted at 6:10 pm on February 22, 2012 by Tina Korbe

According to a new poll, Romney has a substantial 16-point lead over Rick Santorum in Arizona:

According to the NBC News/Marist survey, 43% of people likely to vote in Arizona’s GOP presidential contest say they are backing Romney, with 27% supporting Santorum, 16% backing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 11% behind Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.

The survey was conducted Sunday and Monday and its release came hours before a GOP presidential debate hosted by CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona at the Mesa Arts Center. The showdown is the first in nearly a month and is the last time the candidates will share a stage before primaries in Arizona and Michigan on Tuesday, before Washington state holds a contest on March 3, and before 10 more states hold primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday on March 6.

While Romney has been expected to win Arizona since Florida, polls last week showed a closer race in the Grand Canyon State. According to a CNN pollster, though, the trend since Sunday has been away from Santorum and towards Romney, suggesting something Santorum said or did this weekend might have cost him support in the Southwestern state. Plus, Santorum has spent very little time in the state.

Arizona appears to be the aberration, though: Santorum is still up over Romney nationally and, as Ed reported this morning, has a whopping lead over the former Massachusetts governor in Oklahoma.

Furthermore, Romney’s “electability” argument seems to be unraveling. A Quinnipiac poll puts both Romney and Santorum within a few points of Obama in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

Santorum seems unfazed by Romney’s recent rollout of his tax reform plan, too. In response to Romney’s plan, which is similar to Santorum’s, the former Pennsylvania senator quipped, “Welcome to the party, governor.”


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drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Abobo generally declines to indulge such juvenile threats as “answer me or you’re not a man”. But, just for you son, I will this time. Religion did indeed factor into the South Carolina primary, but you’re an ignorant fool to assert that it factored in as a form of evangelical or Baptist bigotry as you seem to be implying. So why is it that Mormons voting for one of their own is seen as harmless support in your eyes whereas evangelical support for one with whom the can resontae is seen as an underhanded display of intolerance? Might your own religion have a role to play in such a perception?

ANSWER ME NOW SON OR YOU’RE NOT A MAN !!!!

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Utah and Mississippi are the two most conservative states in the US according to Gallup.

Assuming GOP primary voters voted their conservative beliefs; Romney would be toast in both states. But he will likely win Utah with 70% of the vote.

Why? It’s not rocket science. Mormons tend to vote for their own kind.

Norwegian on February 22, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Anyway, seeing as neither abobo, portlandon or norweigan have the stones to answer a direct question, I’m out. Pity. Hot Gas used to be where all the cool kids hung out. I’m off to Ace’s- to quote the Angel of Death- None of you’ve got any balls.

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Abobo generally declines to indulge such juvenile threats as “answer me or you’re not a man”. But, just for you son, I will this time. Religion did indeed factor into the South Carolina primary, but you’re an ignorant fool to assert that it factored in as a form of evangelical or Baptist bigotry as you seem to be implying. So why is it that Mormons voting for one of their own is seen as harmless support in your eyes whereas evangelical support for one with whom the can resontae is seen as an underhanded display of intolerance? Might your own religion have a role to play in such a perception?

ANSWER ME NOW SON OR YOU’RE NOT A MAN !!!!

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:04 PM

First of all, Ging and Santorum are Catholic. Evangelicals do not like Catholics, because as chronicled in earlier threads, they “have not become born again as Hay-Seuss said.” Or something.

antisense on February 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I don’t think it’s bigotry across the board. I’m surprised, though, by the hyper-hatred of someone so many considered a good Conservative just a few years ago.

Slainte on February 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

abobo grows a pair! but a stupid pair at that! Hey abobo- which evagelical was running in SC?

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

antisense on February 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

True, but Newt and Santorum’s message resonates with evangelicals despite their differences, which is drballard is wrong to assert that Newt’s SC victory was due to religious intolerance s opposed to general resonance.

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

abobo grows a pair! but a stupid pair at that! Hey abobo- which evagelical was running in SC?

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Ron Paul?

Santorum & Gingrich are Catholics.

Norwegian on February 22, 2012 at 7:10 PM

SparkPlug on February 22, 2012 at 7:03 PM

That’s close….just a bit louder you crybaby little 8itch.

csdeven on February 22, 2012 at 7:10 PM

And abobo, apart from calling me a fool (which I’m fairly sure your Boss said you shouldn’t do- something about hellfire), I didn’t say or imply it was bigotry in SC- you did. I asked if religion played a role. You came out with girlish screams of “I’m not a bigot!”

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM


abobo on February 22, 2012 at 6:57 PM

You are apparently not keeping up on current events. Not only does Arizona periodically elect Democrats to statewide office, it is actually on Obama’s target list for this election cycle. And are you equally unaware that MI has a Republican governor? If the economy’s in the tank, it’s a potential swing state. IA was a tie for first, so it’s a state that definitely liked Romney and is also a swing state. NH is definitely a swing state, and your argument that it allowed crossover voters in the primary is actually irrelevant…do you somehow think the crossover primary voters don’t get to vote in November? Finally, you never responded to FL, which is definitely a swing state, with a closed primary, where Romney’s win was HUGE.

Altogether, you don’t seem to know what you are talking about and, additionally, are filtering data to fit your preconceived notion of how this election is going. Good luck with that, *son*.

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Ron Paul won SC? Conspiracy indeed!

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

See my response on that to a serious commenter above. I already told you to run along son.

ps: posting comments full of self-congratulatory bravado before hitting the refresh button to see a response waiting for you = fail. Seriously, go home pussyboy before you get hurt feelings.

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:13 PM

See, abobo, why should i debate a sanctimonious turn that can’t even get facts straight and projects like there’s no tommorrow? And let’s not even talk about the hypocricy of lecturing me on manners then calling me a fool.

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

“A Quinnipiac poll puts both Romney and Santorum within a few points of Obama in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.”

Uh, 10 points is not “a few” dear. 5 points, the amount Romney is within might be “a few”. But 10, the amount Santorum would be down, is not “a few”.

Zaggs on February 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM

SparkPlug on February 22, 2012 at 7:03 PM

That’s close….just a bit louder you crybaby little 8itch.

csdeven on February 22, 2012 at 7:10 PM

LDS Bluegill Bigot shemale Mormon?

SparkPlug on February 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM

sorry, I meant to call u a “turd’, not “turn”. my mistake. I’m out.

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM


Anyway, seeing as neither abobo, portlandon or norweigan have the stones to answer a direct question, I’m out. Pity. Hot Gas used to be where all the cool kids hung out. I’m off to Ace’s- to quote the Angel of Death- None of you’ve got any balls.

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Don’t let them run you out. Opinions need to be expressed both in congenial and hostile environments. Here, just think of it as a rear-guard action.

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 7:16 PM

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM

A whole lotta words to say nothing. I already said, in an earlier post that Florida seemed to be a rule-proving exception. As for all this other nonsense, Obama also had field offices in Texas last go around and thought the Hispanics in the south of that state gave him a fighting chance, but that never made it a swing state. Nether does such democratic projection make AZ a swing state now. My original assertion was, and still is, that Romney can be expected to win or at least do well in states that are heavily Mormon and/or liberal. So far I’ve been right. I would assert that it those who disagree with such a common sense notion that are the ones who, as you’ve put it:

don’t seem to know what you are talking about and, additionally, are filtering data to fit your preconceived notion of how this election is going.

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:19 PM

drballard on February 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Alrighty then, good to see you taking my advice and running along like a good little boy. But I do believe it’s because your arguments were full of fail in addition to your getting hurt feelings. Blame it on others all you want, but that’s not what a conservative who believes in personal responsibility would do.

abobo on February 22, 2012 at 7:22 PM

SparkPlug on February 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM

More caps you whiny little troll 8itch!

hahahaha

csdeven on February 22, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Like a yeast infection!

astonerii on February 22, 2012 at 7:30 PM

I don’t think it’s bigotry across the board. I’m surprised, though, by the hyper-hatred of someone so many considered a good Conservative just a few years ago.

Slainte on February 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

No one with any sense should have “considered (Romney) a good Conservative” in 2008, given his actual record. Limbaugh was in his “Dr. Rush (principled defender of limited government) vs Mr. Limbaugh (bare-knuckled partisan of the R party)” modality when he made his retrospectively idiotic “three-legs” defense of Romney, and so was Levin. They were driven by the contempt that McCain showed for conservatives in that race, the same contempt that Romney and his seething band of cultists is showing to the Right in this election cycle. What I said about Romney last time is even more relevant now:

“ebrown2 I don’t think you know what you are talking about.”

It’s a question of -fact.-

Romney got beaten like a rented mule by the rickety organization of the oldest man ever to run for President, a man absolutely detested by the conservative core of his party.

He barely kept ahead of the even more rickety and underfunded organization of a socially liberal character like the Huckster, despite having the advantages of higher name recognition and a vastly larger war-chest.

Romney hasn’t shown himself to be politically competent in a context that is reasonably favorable and knowledgeable about business, i.e. the Republican primaries. The press will have a field day with him in the general election, since he will not have the time or the media access to explain himself.

“They are the most positive “can do” people and spend their days thinking about making the world more efficient, more profitable, creating more jobs, and creating products & technology to help the world.”

Good on them. I’ll give them credit for knowing better than wasting $100 million on being Steve Forbes II, Electric Boogaloo in the current electoral climate.

You seem to have the insane delusion that I’m a Marxist/Populist. I’m quite the opposite, a pro-capitalist realist who knows what’s going to happen to a down-sizer dealing with an electorate that is NOT literate in economics.

ebrown2 on July 30, 2008 at 11:12 PM

ebrown2 on February 22, 2012 at 7:32 PM

More caps you whiny little troll 8itch!

hahahaha

csdeven on February 22, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Let me guess, you are a Mitt supporter. You sound like a typical unhinged Mitt supporter.

SparkPlug on February 22, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Let me guess, you are a Mitt supporter. You sound like a typical unhinged Mitt supporter.

SparkPlug on February 22, 2012 at 7:32 PM

You ain’t from around here, are you? Lol!

Mitt has no worries about losing AZ. It’s Mormon country. This poll is not news.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Let’s not forget about how important Oklahoma is! It’s totally a relevant state.

/

antisense on February 22, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Mitt has no worries about losing AZ. It’s Mormon country. This poll is not news.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Wow. 5.96% of the population makes it “Mormon Country”? So why is Mitt ahead by 16% in the latest poll? Do they get “multiple votes” just like they get “”multiple wives? Neat!

Next up: Hawaii, with a Mormon percentage of 5.06%!

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Mitt has no worries about losing AZ. It’s Mormon country. This poll is not news.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 7:37 PM

HAHAHAHAHA.

Lol at people acting like Arizona is heavily mormon. FOUR PERCENT. FOUR. 4%. That makes Arizona “mormon country” and explains why Flopney is polling 43% there!

You stupid idiots know NOTHING about Arizona. LOL!

Daikokuco on February 22, 2012 at 7:45 PM

You stupid idiots know NOTHING about Arizona. LOL!

Daikokuco on February 22, 2012 at 7:45 PM

We know the people there are retarded enough vote for McCain every 6 years.

astonerii on February 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Wow. 5.96% of the population makes it “Mormon Country”? So why is Mitt ahead by 16% in the latest poll? Do they get “multiple votes” just like they get “”multiple wives? Neat!

Next up: Hawaii, with a Mormon percentage of 5.06%!

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 7:45 PM

and next next next up: CALI with a Mormon population of 2% :-)..you bet they’ll argue that Sanitarium will lose my state huge number of delegate votes coz of the Mormoooons too :-)…what about Illinois and Virginia, oh and Washington DC? Mormons there too? oups, my bad, he is not even on the ballot there :-)…

jimver on February 22, 2012 at 7:57 PM

We know the people there are retarded enough vote for McCain every 6 years.

astonerii on February 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

aww, you mean the same mccain endorsed by the retard of alaska? hahaha :-)

jimver on February 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Lol at people acting like Arizona is heavily mormon. FOUR PERCENT. FOUR. 4%. That makes Arizona “mormon country” and explains why Flopney is polling 43% there!

You stupid idiots know NOTHING about Arizona. LOL!

Daikokuco on February 22, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Gee, that’s funny, the know-it-all above you, who posted first, says it’s 5.9%.

I guess since I live in Arizona that means I know nothing about the politics here. We are second only to Utah, when it comes to the number of Mormons in our state. There is certainly a significant number of mormon REPUBLICANS here, who VOTE, who will easily allow Romney to coast to victory in the primary. If he were to lose here, it would be VERY significant.

That was my point. Too bad you chose to ignore it, in favor of name-calling.

What, exactly is YOUR point? Besides the one on top of your head, I mean.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Gee, that’s funny, the know-it-all above you, who posted first, says it’s 5.9%.

I guess since I live in Arizona that means I know nothing about the politics here. We are second only to Utah, when it comes to the number of Mormons in our state. There is certainly a significant number of mormon REPUBLICANS here, who VOTE, who will easily allow Romney to coast to victory in the primary. If he were to lose here, it would be VERY significant.

That was my point. Too bad you chose to ignore it, in favor of name-calling.

What, exactly is YOUR point? Besides the one on top of your head, I mean.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

LOL again.

1) HTL’s 6% number comes for propoganda published by the LDS themselves. My 4% number comes from census. Either way, 4 or 6% hardly makes AZ “mormon country”, you idiot.

2) California has the second most mormons of any state, not AZ. AZ isn’t 2nd in percentage either. Not even close.

3) Any more ignorant BS made-up-crap you want to attempt to put forth as fact, Janny?

Daikokuco on February 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

So-we all vote on the candidates, based on religion it seems.
Whens our American Spring?

KOOLAID2 on February 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

So-we all vote on the candidates, based on religion it seems.
Whens our American Spring?

KOOLAID2 on February 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

after the Syrian one :)

jimver on February 22, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Approximately 475,000 people voted in the AZ Republican presidential primary in 2008. 34% of them voted for Romney, even though McCain had already won the candidacy, and McCain is a senator from this state.

There are approximately 350,000 Mormons in this state. If you think Mormons will not be a factor in this primary, then you need your heads examined.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Whens our American Spring?

KOOLAID2 on February 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

oh, that depends on Soros’s timing :-)

jimver on February 22, 2012 at 8:13 PM

aww, you mean the same mccain endorsed by the retard of alaska? hahaha :-)

jimver on February 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Yeah, she felt obligated since he launched her to national prominence, I am willing to overlook a meaningless endorsement.

astonerii on February 22, 2012 at 8:13 PM

3) Any more ignorant BS made-up-crap you want to attempt to put forth as fact, Janny?

Daikokuco on February 22, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Please see my post above. Refute it if you can.

I was incorrect about Arizona being second in Mormon population. My bad.

Why are you assuming I’m making excuses for anything? Projecting your traits onto me?

My points stand. There are enough Mormon Republicans here to win the primary election for Romney, and if he lost here, it would be significant.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 8:18 PM


Gee, that’s funny, the know-it-all above you, who posted first, says it’s 5.9%.

I guess since I live in Arizona that means I know nothing about the politics here. We are second only to Utah, when it comes to the number of Mormons in our state.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 8:00 PM

As the “know-it-all” in question, I feel like I am entitled to chime in. I have to credit the Internet for my all-knowing state however; I just googled it. I had a vague sense that your information was baloney, and wanted to confirm it before responding. You should try that too. Because the Internet says that Arizona is a distant fifth in terms of LDS percentages, not # number 2:

Utah 72%
Idaho 27%
Wyoming 11.0%
Nevada 7.1%
Arizona 6.0%
Hawaii 5.1%
Montana 4.6%
Oregon 4.0%
Washington 3.9%

If you just go by raw numbers, you’re still #4, after UT, CA and ID.

Oddly enough, there’s also a heapin’ helpin’ of LDS folks in WA and OR. So why don’t they seem to be having the same outsized electoral impact up there? Are they just ascairt of the rain?

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Arizona voted John McCain back in…and it is the Governor that has the cajonies he lacks, so I don’t care about their polls. They can’t get their testosterone straight!

KOOLAID2 on February 22, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Oddly enough, there’s also a heapin’ helpin’ of LDS folks in WA and OR. So why don’t they seem to be having the same outsized electoral impact up there? Are they just ascairt of the rain?

HTL on February 22, 2012 at 8:26 PM

I live in Arizona. Mormons are very active in politics here. Jeff Flake is my congressman. He’s Mormon. I never mentioned percentages of Mormons. You did. And BTW, if you’re going to chastize people, then why don’t you chastize the other guy for being WRONG when he claimed we are 4% Mormon?

There is a significant population of Mormons, particularly in MY area. When you get OUT of my area, then there is a significant portion of the state that votes Democrat. see here

We are in the same boat with most other states, when it comes to urban areas tending to be Democrat-dominated. Tucson is blue. The district to the west of them reelected Raul Grijalva, arguably the most militant La Raza politician you could find.

Our state is unique. We also have a significant number of “native Americans” here, and only 17.6 of our land is privately owned.

Currently, state trust land comprises about
12.7 percent of all land in Arizona, equaling
more than nine million acres. Nearly all state
trust lands are under one or more leases for
natural resource uses and commercial
development purposes. Additionally, federal
land comprises about 42.1 percent of the land in
Arizona, Indian Trust about 27.6 percent and
private land about 17.6 percent.

link here

The point is, it’s much more complicated than the percentage of Mormons in our population. That’s why the use of such a statistic was not too impressive to me, but thank you for being a lot more civil that the douchebag that mocked me. You have my respect. Him, not so much.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Arizona voted John McCain back in…and it is the Governor that has the cajonies he lacks, so I don’t care about their polls. They can’t get their testosterone straight!

KOOLAID2 on February 22, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Jan Brewer is not as conservative as I’d like her to be, in some ways, but considering that she replaced Janet Napolitano, and she’s stood up to Obama, bigtime, she’s got my support.

I didn’t vote for McCain. I voted for JD Hayworth, who was another ‘imperfect’ candidate, but he was annihilated by the McCain smear machine. That is another factor in the primary this year. Money. Romney is spending it on mailers about how wonderful he is, and television ads. Tons of television ads, smearing Santorum. They will work, and Santorum will lose. Romney will win. I’d love to be wrong about that, but I just don’t see it happening.

JannyMae on February 22, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Northern Arizona is Mormon country. No surprises here.

Will you people stop talking nonsense. Arizonan here and the idea that AZ is ‘heavily mormon’ is absurd. The only areas where Mormons have a substantial number in Az are in tiny tiny areas like Graham, Az, population 30,000. While large urban areas like Phoenix, population 4.5 million, have very small number of Mormons-less than 5%.

Romney will take Az just like I said in the thread about how Santorum was high in the polls here. And, not because he’s Mormon, for god’s sake, but because Santorum is a perceived loon and Arizonans will never vote a loon into higher office. They like their conservatives moderate on social issues. Comments about Satan and birth control will lose you Arizona in a heartbeat. This idea that Az is arch conservative is simply not true.

kit9 on February 22, 2012 at 10:15 PM

JannyMae, IIRC Daikookoo is a ron paul retard so he really has no room to mock anyone.
Kit9, I’ve been in AZ since 1982 and you don’t seem to know what you are talking about. Mormons will turn out in numbers and make the difference. GOP squishes and them = done deal. They will be the deciding factor. Period.
Your comments about Conservatives, social issues, and AZ is also clueless. Take a look at who is in charge of the state and then tell me they are moderates on social issues.

As for McCain, I have done what I could, but the idiots decided JD would be around too long after he won. So they decided to give McRino another go since he won’t possibly run again for another term. (roll eyes)

Hard Right on February 22, 2012 at 11:41 PM

It’s about time people started coming back to their senses. For a little while there I thought Republicans were hell-bent on re-electing Obama.

Whew.

crosspatch on February 23, 2012 at 6:24 AM

Hey Arizona and Michigan! Are you people really THAT STUPID that you would vote for a LIBERAL (who is just as electable as John Effing Kerry and your bud, Juan McLame)??? You all have already been infected by the RepublicRAT establishment with the deadly and dreaded LEMMING disease, MHIT-For-Brains. MHIT-For-Brains ROBS you of your conservative common sense, and causes you to vote unwillingly for LIBERALS, which is brain-dead STUPID, hence, MHIT-For-Brains!?!
Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name) will get his head handed to him by Axelrod and Cc. come November. What’s more likely though is that RINO Romney will be TOAST before his acceptance speech. Watch and Weep, all you MHIT-For-Brains folks, as you will be delivering four more years of Obastard II.

Colatteral Damage on February 23, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Any atate like Arizona who will elect a RINO like McCain over and over deserves what they get. If McCain’s b@lls were half as big as Governor Brewer’s they wouldn’t on the verge of becomng a third world country. Romney is a logical choice.

volsense on February 23, 2012 at 7:18 PM

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