Three new MI polls show Santorum with lead

posted at 8:40 am on February 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

National pollsters have already released surveys showing Rick Santorum taking a lead over Mitt Romney in Romney’s native state of Michigan.  Today, three state-based polls concur, showing leads from just under four points to ten points in the key battleground state.  The Detroit News poll shows the tightest margin (via Politico’s Morning Blast e-mail):

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has a slim lead over Mitt Romney, an indication the Michigan native son has yet to convince state voters he should be the Republican nominee for president, a Detroit News poll shows.

Santorum leads Romney 34 percent to 30.4 percent among likely Republican primary voters, but the gap is within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had support from 11.6 percent of respondents, former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul had 8.9 percent and 12.4 percent was undecided.

USA Today reports on the other two polls, which show leads of nine and ten points:

The MRG Michigan Poll shows Santorum, a former U.S.senator from Pennsylvania, with 43% of the support to 33% for native son Mitt Romney, who has long been considered the front-runner in Michigan.

In the MRG poll, former House speaker Newt Gingrichcame in at 11% and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas had 8%. …

Mitchell Research, a polling firm in East Lansing, Mich., also has a new survey out showing Santorum with a 9-point lead over Romney in the Feb. 28 presidential primary in Michigan.

The Mitchell poll was done for MIRS, the Michigan Information & Research Service, and shows Santorum at 34% to Romney’s 25%. Less than two weeks ago, Romney was at 31%, with a 15-point lead over former Gingrich (16%), trailed by Santorum (15%) and Paul (15%).

In the new poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6-percentage points, Paul trails Santorum and Romney with 11% and Gingrich is behind them with 5% of the survey respondents.

The MRG poll was conducted among 800 Republican voters, which might be problematic if USA Today means registered Republicans only.  Independents can vote in the GOP primary in Michigan, and the wording implies that the poll was conducted among registered rather than likely Republicans without any independents.  The Mitchell poll, however, surveyed 455 likely voters in the primary, which is a better sample — and one that came up with essentially same result.   The Detroit News poll surveyed 500 likely voters, similar to the Mitchell poll, but with somewhat more divergent results.

Clearly, Santorum has momentum in Michigan, and as Tina noted yesterday, in Arizona too, although he still trails in the latter.  One question that arises is that of timing.  Both of these contests are still almost two weeks away, which is plenty of time for Romney to spend a lot of cash to slow Santorumentum down, and possibly reverse it.   The danger for Santorum is peaking too soon and raising expectations in Michigan before the Super Tuesday contests.  If Santorum ends up losing Michigan after getting leads across the board in all these polls, it will be difficult to regenerate momentum in a single week to take on Romney in ten states.

Santorum’s fundraising has picked up and he’s trying an attack strategy on Romney designed to undercut Romney’s credibility by painting him as a mudslinger, but the effectiveness of that strategy has yet to be tested.  The four candidates return for another debate on February 22nd, and Santorum can expect the hot-seat treatment from Romney and perhaps Gingrich as well, a new role for Santorum in these debates. Romney has already gone after Santorum as a big-government, big-spending Washington insider, but the Weekly Standard defends Santorum on those charges:

The National Taxpayers Union (NTU) has been rating members of Congress for 20 years.  NTU is an independent, non-partisan organization that — per its mission statement — “mobilizes elected officials and the general public on behalf of tax relief and reform, lower and less wasteful spending, individual liberty, and free enterprise.”  Steve Forbes serves on its board of directors.

For each session of Congress, NTU scores each member on an A-to-F scale.  NTU weights members’ votes based on those votes’ perceived effect on both the immediate and future size of the federal budget.  Those who get A’s are among “the strongest supporters of responsible tax and spending policies”; they receive NTU’s “Taxpayers’ Friend Award.”  B’s are “good” scores, C’s are “minimally acceptable” scores, D’s are “poor” scores, and F’s earn their recipients membership in the “Big Spender” category.  There is no grade inflation whatsoever, as we shall see.

NTU’s scoring paints a radically different picture of Santorum’s 12-year tenure in the Senate (1995 through 2006) than one would glean from the rhetoric of the Romney campaign.  Fifty senators served throughout Santorum’s two terms:  25 Republicans, 24 Democrats, and 1 Republican/Independent.  On a 4-point scale (awarding 4 for an A, 3.3 for a B+, 3 for a B, 2.7 for a B-, etc.), those 50 senators’ collective grade point average (GPA) across the 12 years was 1.69 — which amounts to a C-.  Meanwhile, Santorum’s GPA was 3.66 — or an A-.  Santorum’s GPA placed him in the top 10 percent of senators, as he ranked 5th out of 50.

Across the 12 years in question, only 6 of the 50 senators got A’s in more than half the years.  Santorum was one of them.  He was also one of only 7 senators who never got less than a B.  (Jim Talent served only during Santorum’s final four years, but he always got less than a B, earning a B- every year and a GPA of 2.7.)  Moreover, while much of the Republican party lost its fiscal footing after George W. Bush took office — although it would be erroneous to say that the Republicans were nearly as profligate as the Democrats — Santorum was the only senator who got A’s in every year of Bush’s first term.  None of the other 49 senators could match Santorum’s 4.0 GPA over that span.

I’ve been seeing a lot of comments and tweets about Santorum’s supposed profligacy as Senator, but that doesn’t match his record vis-a-vis the NTU scoring.  People have honest differences with Santorum on the emphasis of social issues (although Santorum himself has emphasized his economic plans in this campaign), and I wrote that I have a few disagreements with Santorum’s positions, DADT among them.  He’s not a perfect conservative, to be sure, and questions about how he would stack up against Barack Obama in the general election are legitimate concerns.  However, the alternatives are the person who signed an individual health-care mandate into law in Massachusetts, and the man who both backed individual mandates until 2010 and sat on a couch with Nancy Pelosi to push global-warming alarmism a few years before that, and both of whom also spent three or four weeks sounding more like an Occupier on Bain Capital and Freddie Mac work than a Republican.  Those issues occurred  more recently than any sins committed by Santorum while in the Senate, which is why I’m not buying the idea that Santorum is the big-government candidate about which I should be worried.


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THAT IS WHY MITT HAS ADS everywhere!

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 8:42 AM

It is like the Death Star is aimed right at Kolob!

tom daschle concerned on February 16, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Reverend Rick will get clobbered in MI.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 8:43 AM

TV, Radio, Newspapers…Michigan media is making money!

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Go Rick Go!

Pragmatic on February 16, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Hot Air better get it’s own prescription drug program or on staff therapist if this keeps up.

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Hang in there Newt!!

Electrongod on February 16, 2012 at 8:45 AM

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 8:43 AM

I’ve got a weird story, the anti Santorum ads are being played in Florida? You remember, the primary Gov. Romney already won!

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:44 AM

You’re right, ma’am. There could be so very dramatic on-line breakdowns/meltdowns/flame-outs. We saw a couple on the Santorum Thread yesterday.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:47 AM

“There can’t possibly be anything wrong with our preferred candidate, dammit! The fact that he remains — after six years, and two successive tries — bumblingly and demonstrably incapable of selling himself to the party’s conservative base means he’s actually the perfect candidate to take on a sitting incumbent with the entire MSM in his hip pocket! He shares no responsibility whatsoever for his own failures, plural, in winning conservatives over! The candidate is flawless; it’s the GOP base that needs to be rejected — !!!”
/Team Mittens

Kent18 on February 16, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Wow, very impressive for Santorum. Crushing Romney in Romney’s native born state without spending any money..

Norwegian on February 16, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Those issues occurred more recently than any sins committed by Santorum while in the Senate, which is why I’m not buying the idea that Santorum is the big-government candidate about which I should be worried.
excerpt: Ed Morrissey

.
Since I’m supporting Santorum, GREAT.
.
All of you “anybody BUT Santorum” folks, fire-away. (you know want to)

listens2glenn on February 16, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Americans (at least, Conservatives) are a stiff-necked people. You just can’t force us to do something that we don’t want to do.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:50 AM

I thought the Tea Party was dead?

faraway on February 16, 2012 at 8:50 AM

That debate in 6 days is gonna be huge. Santorum’s been very effective at going after Mittens on Romneycare, so it’ll be a doozy.

Doughboy on February 16, 2012 at 8:51 AM

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Ain’t it kool?!

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Writers here are still fleshing out Gingrich for some reason. Santorum? Not so much. Yesterday we were treated with the news that Gingrich was one of the most disliked politicians in the country which is literally 15 year old news.

RINO on February 16, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Ain’t it kool?!

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Yep. Quite spectacular. “Culling the herd”,as it were…

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:54 AM

It wasn’t more than two weeks ago I had read The Washington Post saying a defeat in Michigan for Mitt would be a “fatal blow”. I’m sure that thinking will change or be re-written. By The Washington Post.

Marcus on February 16, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Here in Michigan, Mittens is tanking. His attack ads directed at Santorum are not going over well at all with Republicans. It will be interesting to see by how much Santorum wins.

BTW … Whatever happened to that nice Mormon (never mentioned of course) boy that the occasional positive ad portrays? LOL He never existed, suckers!

Conservative talk radio is not so much pro Rick, but rather what a jerk is Mittens.

~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on February 16, 2012 at 8:57 AM

At least If Rick wins.. the Romney voters can fall back on blaming the kos kids….

They could blame their own lack of social skillz… but..

mark81150 on February 16, 2012 at 8:57 AM

I’m not buying the idea that Santorum is the big-government candidate about which I should be worried.

Obama is the big government candidate you should be worried about, which is why you shouldn’t be supporing Santorum, who will lose to Obama in a landslide.

The American people are not on board with Rick’s extremist views, and that will show up in the polls big time once Obama and the MSM start playing clips and publishing a few of the Sweater Vest’s greatest hits.

I’m no Mitt/Gingrich/Paul fan, either…but nominating Santorum and expecting to defeat Obama is insane. Hell, we’d be lucky to hold onto the House with Santorum on the top of the ticket.

DRayRaven on February 16, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Jeebus …
Just as I posted the above, on came another Romney radio ad attacking Santorum.
You just keep doing what you do best, Willard!
LOL

~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on February 16, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Great job evangelicals, neo-cons and wing-nuts.

You’ll get Obama re-elected, and we’ll get four more years!!

Democrats are cheering you on!

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/daily-kos-to-make-mischief-in-republican-primary

mountainaires on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I saw a Romney attack ad down here in the NW corner of MS this morning. He doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in a MS summer, down here in Dixie.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Americans (at least, Conservatives) are a stiff-necked people. You just can’t force us to do something that we don’t want to do.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:50 AM

..respectfully, as long as it can be reliably be shown that Santorum can beat Obama in the general election, then this is fine with me.

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

It wasn’t more than two weeks ago I had read The Washington Post saying a defeat in Michigan for Mitt would be a “fatal blow”. I’m sure that thinking will change or be re-written. By The Washington Post.

Marcus on February 16, 2012 at 8:56 AM

They won’t be the only ones rewritting the rules of the game… Romney’s supporters will again, rant, rage, vent smoke from their ears, and explain how it’s all part of Mitt’s plan to draw us out for his master stroke..

or something like it.

mark81150 on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

The American people are not on board with Rick’s extremist views, and that will show up in the polls big time once Obama and the MSM start playing clips and publishing a few of the Sweater Vest’s greatest hits.

I’m no Mitt/Gingrich/Paul fan, either…but nominating Santorum and expecting to defeat Obama is insane. Hell, we’d be lucky to hold onto the House with Santorum on the top of the ticket.

DRayRaven on February 16, 2012 at 8:58 AM

And that, ladies and gents, is why the GOP needs a brokered convention with a dark-horse candidate who can actually beat Slappy.

~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Great job evangelicals.

mountainaires on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Thanks, Skippy.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Americans (at least, Conservatives) are a stiff-necked people. You just can’t force us to do something that we don’t want to do.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:50 AM

A large segment of American conservatives are of Scots-Irish descent, who are, historically speaking, among the most stiff-necked people on the planet. Before he was a senator, James Webb wrote a fascinating book on the subject: Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America.

In his first work of nonfiction, bestselling novelist James Webb tells the epic story of the Scots-Irish, a people whose lives and worldview were dictated by resistance, conflict, and struggle, and who, in turn, profoundly influenced the social, political, and cultural landscape of America from its beginnings through the present day.

More than 27 million Americans today can trace their lineage to the Scots, whose bloodline was stained by centuries of continuous warfare along the border between England and Scotland, and later in the bitter settlements of England’s Ulster Plantation in Northern Ireland. Between 250,000 and 400,000 Scots-Irish migrated to America in the eighteenth century, traveling in groups of families and bringing with them not only long experience as rebels and outcasts but also unparalleled skills as frontiersmen and guerrilla fighters. Their cultural identity reflected acute individualism, dislike of aristocracy and a military tradition, and, over time, the Scots-Irish defined the attitudes and values of the military, of working class America, and even of the peculiarly populist form of American democracy itself.
Born Fighting is the first book to chronicle the full journey of this remarkable cultural group, and the profound, but unrecognized, role it has played in the shaping of America. Written with the storytelling verve that has earned his works such acclaim as “captivating . . . unforgettable” (the Wall Street Journal on Lost Soliders), Scots-Irishman James Webb, Vietnam combat veteran and former Naval Secretary, traces the history of his people, beginning nearly two thousand years ago at Hadrian’s Wall, when the nation of Scotland was formed north of the Wall through armed conflict in contrast to England’s formation to the south through commerce and trade. Webb recounts the Scots’ odyssey—their clashes with the English in Scotland and then in Ulster, their retreat from one war-ravaged land to another. Through engrossing chronicles of the challenges the Scots-Irish faced, Webb vividly portrays how they developed the qualities that helped settle the American frontier and define the American character.
Born Fighting shows that the Scots-Irish were 40 percent of the Revolutionary War army; they included the pioneers Daniel Boone, Lewis and Clark, Davy Crockett, and Sam Houston; they were the writers Edgar Allan Poe and Mark Twain; and they have given America numerous great military leaders, including Stonewall Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant, Audie Murphy, and George S. Patton, as well as most of the soldiers of the Confederacy (only 5 percent of whom owned slaves, and who fought against what they viewed as an invading army). It illustrates how the Scots-Irish redefined American politics, creating the populist movement and giving the country a dozen presidents, including Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. And it explores how the Scots-Irish culture of isolation, hard luck, stubbornness, and mistrust of the nation’s elite formed and still dominates blue-collar America, the military services, the Bible Belt, and country music.

Both a distinguished work of cultural history and a human drama that speaks straight to the heart of contemporary America, Born Fighting reintroduces America to its most powerful, patriotic, and individualistic cultural group—one too often ignored or taken for granted.

flyfisher on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Reverend Rick and his social conservatism mixed with big government spending is a recipe for a losing ticket.

ObamatheMessiah on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I saw a Romney attack ad down here in the NW corner of MS this morning. He doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in a MS summer, down here in Dixie.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

He’ll win MS in the general, that’s all that matters.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 8:43 AM
I’ve got a weird story, the anti Santorum ads are being played in Florida? You remember, the primary Gov. Romney already won!

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:47 AM

….and a thread yesterday questioned if Mitt was running out of money? I don’t think, they ‘give credit’ or low financing rates!
I was watching the local FOX station last night. Almost 1/2 the ads were Mitt (himself) ads, or anti-Santy PAC ads. I listen to numerous talk radio stations, switching back and forth and around based on topic…just one anti-Santy ad after another! Money! Money!

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Writers here are still fleshing out Gingrich for some reason. Santorum? Not so much. Yesterday we were treated with the news that Gingrich was one of the most disliked politicians in the country which is literally 15 year old news.

RINO on February 16, 2012 at 8:53 AM

There was a story in the headlines yesterday, can’t remember which one, that said the reporters following the campaigns said Newt’s speeches were the most interesting and he was the most likeable of the three. So there’s that.

Night Owl on February 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Not that anyone cares :) Just expressing myself Hotair, if they are even listening.

I can’t come here anymore. Romney might be a train wreck but so is Santorum. The love fest going on at Hotair has made me not only question your judgment but find your writing less entertaining.

The blog comments have been insulting and irritating, although I know blog commenting typically is emotional.

For all your writing about PEU reform, you are picking the most pro PEU GOP candidate ever. Other blogs are posting Santorum’s voting record, old quotes, problems ect…Hotair is silent.

It would not been as bad if a few writers here took opposite positions, but everyone has seemingly choreographed a Santorum apology tour.

I am just writing to tell you I have been put off too much, I am taking a majority of my traffic to ace.mu.nu, Blaze, and Breitbart’s media outlets, at least I get more “opinion” and a decidedly more conservative/libertarian feel.

*I will vote for the sweater vest wearing train wreck Santorum when the time comes, if it comes.

cya.

ConservativeLaw on February 16, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Great job evangelicals, neo-cons and wing-nuts.

You’ll get Obama re-elected, and we’ll get four more years!!

Democrats are cheering you on!

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/daily-kos-to-make-mischief-in-republican-primary

mountainaires on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Maybe caffiene isn’t the right beverage for you…

deep breaths..

mark81150 on February 16, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Great job evangelicals, neo-cons and wing-nuts.

You’ll get Obama re-elected, and we’ll get four more years!!

Democrats are cheering you on!

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/daily-kos-to-make-mischief-in-republican-primary

mountainaires on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

they call it operation hilarity, and I start to warm up to the hilarity prospects of it. indeed, it would be an hilarious way of cleaning up the social cons from the repub party.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:04 AM

..respectfully, as long as it can be reliably be shown that Santorum can beat Obama in the general election, then this is fine with me.

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Equally as respectfully, you are a reasonable man. A bunch of your fellow Mitt supporters, who have been ruining threads, are not.

Those Northeastern Corridor Power BRokers who have been pushing Mitt grossly underestimated the strength and conviction of average Conservative Americans, especially those who live in the Heartland.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I saw a Romney attack ad down here in the NW corner of MS this morning. He doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in a MS summer, down here in Dixie.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I haven’t seen one of his ads yet, but talk about throwing money away.

flyfisher on February 16, 2012 at 9:05 AM

He’ll win MS in the general, that’s all that matters.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

If he makes it to the General. You need a new Magic Eight-ball.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:06 AM

flyfisher on February 16, 2012 at 9:05 AM

It played during WREG News this morning, neighbor.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:07 AM

And that, ladies and gents, is why the GOP needs a brokered convention with a dark-horse candidate who can actually beat Slappy.

~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I’m not opposed to a brokered convention on-principle, but we can’t vote for it. We can hope that it happens, but I think it’d be even more of a hoot if “operation hilarity” resulted in Santorum clinching the nomination handily (which is definitely a possibility at this point).

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Where’s the atheist update????

FEEEEVAH????

Eph on February 16, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Go Rick Go!

Pragmatic on February 16, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Roll, Rick, Roll!

:-)

ITguy on February 16, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Those Northeastern Corridor Power BRokers who have been pushing Mitt grossly underestimated the strength and conviction of average Conservative Americans, especially those who live in the Heartland.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:05 AM

its not just about mitt supporters, santorum will be highly toxic to many other moderates that also hate the establishment.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Karl Magnus on February 16, 2012 at 8:58 AM

KM!…What do you think of the Nerd giving the Mitt the nod?
I think the Nerd is starting to repair the damage THE MOLE did to the lawn in our state…but, I think the nod may hurt Mitt!

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 9:09 AM

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:08 AM

There aren’t a whole lot of “Moderates” in the South.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Those Northeastern Corridor Power BRokers who have been pushing Mitt grossly underestimated the strength and conviction of average Conservative Americans, especially those who live in the Heartland.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:05 AM

..but will that be enough to beat Obama? Again, I am strictly a “3-day-old ham sammich ABOer” here. If Santorum can beat Obama then I am very happy that the grass roots conservatives are fired up.

But — and I do not mean to be flippant nor want to appear to be a concern troll — you break it, you own it. If Santorum takes us into the dumper, then there will be the obvious blame meted out however irresponsibily..

..here words get tangled, but you know what I mean, KJ.

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

its not just about mitt supporters, santorum will be highly toxic to many other moderates that also hate the establishment.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Then who are they going to turn to? Mandate Mitt? Newt “The Couch Sitter” Gingrich? Yeah, those guys sure are moderate.

/PBBBBBT

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

I’m praying for and voting for Santorum!

Pragmatic on February 16, 2012 at 9:11 AM

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:05 AM

its not just about mitt supporters, santorum will be highly toxic to many other moderates that also hate the establishment.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:08 AM

..this is what I fear as well, KJ.

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Then who are they going to turn to? Mandate Mitt? Newt “The Couch Sitter” Gingrich? Yeah, those guys sure are moderate.

/PBBBBBT

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

we still have paul.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:11 AM

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Understood. However, the “You will vote for Romney, and like it, because we’re smarter than you” Campaign, has backfired…Big Time.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:12 AM

/PBBBBBT

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

..heh!

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:12 AM

they call it operation hilarity, and I start to warm up to the hilarity prospects of it. indeed, it would be an hilarious way of cleaning up the social cons from the repub party.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:04 AM

uh huh,…

look chucky, we’ll be here long after you’ve moved on to the fresher hill’s of some Frum project or another, you mod’s have always said you’d go elswhere after you loose a fight with us Teh Crazy Wingnutz..

But the porch light’ll be on,.. once you find out no one is following you.

mark81150 on February 16, 2012 at 9:12 AM

flyfisher on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Thanks for that. I am Scots-Irish, so of course I found it very interesting. You’ve also given me another idea about where to go if everything goes horribly wrong and Obama is re-elected- LOL

Night Owl on February 16, 2012 at 9:13 AM

..but will that be enough to beat Obama? Again, I am strictly a “3-day-old ham sammich ABOer” here. If Santorum can beat Obama then I am very happy that the grass roots conservatives are fired up.

But — and I do not mean to be flippant nor want to appear to be a concern troll — you break it, you own it. If Santorum takes us into the dumper, then there will be the obvious blame meted out however irresponsibily..

..here words get tangled, but you know what I mean, KJ.

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:10 AM

If I could chime in here, Planner. I think the worst thing we can do is act out of fear. Self-interest, yes. A sincere and burning desire to get rid of Obama? Absolutely. But there can be a fine line between that burning desire and the abject cowardice that has led at least one of my friends to say “I don’t care if Romney follows the constitution! I just want Obama out of there!” Really? Really?! See, that’s my problem with the Santorum detractors, some of whom I realize aren’t necessarily Mitt supporters. They want us to believe that there are any better choices out there than Santorum when there really aren’t. And you can’t blame me and my fellow “so-cons” for that. My first choice of presidential candidates decided not to run at all six months ago.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Understood. However, the “You will vote for Romney, and like it, because we’re smarter than you” Campaign, has backfired…Big Time.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:12 AM

..agreed that it is satisfying. But aftetr the joy of that has worn off and we are faced with four years of The Pantload unleashed?

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:14 AM

we still have paul.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:11 AM

And you can have him. I don’t consider Ron Paul a legit player.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:15 AM

’ve got a weird story, the anti Santorum ads are being played in Florida? You remember, the primary Gov. Romney already won!

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:47 AM

When Perry was on the race I saw Perry’s ads here in Pennsylvania-and I asked Ed why in the world that was happening. So far no ads. But when Perry was on the race, the ads posted here I already saw them on TV.

So when Romney said that he was busy building up his nationwide campaign I expected ads here, regardless of the type-that was not a concern, it was pre-Florida.

ProudPalinFan on February 16, 2012 at 9:15 AM

..agreed that it is satisfying. But aftetr the joy of that has worn off and we are faced with four years of The Pantload unleashed?

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:14 AM

You know that’s not set in stone yet. Be of good cheer and have courage, Planner. We need to worry about what happens AFTER Obama leaves office too, ya know.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I fully understand the ambivalence people feel toward Romney. I feel the same way. But for me, priority number one is to beat Obama. And in a thousand years, Rick Santorum could never do that. Too preachy. He’s not going to appeal to anyone outside his core supporters. I still think Republicans are going to come to their senses and vote with their heads, not their hearts. But I’m not as sure as I used to be when I was using my posts to taunt the supporters of all the other candidates.

rogaineguy on February 16, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Santorum 1990: I’m not a Reagan Republican

Neither is Romney or Paul.

Newt who the Romney SuperPAC said is not the heir to Reagan, is the most of a Reagan Republic

J_Crater on February 16, 2012 at 9:17 AM

And that, ladies and gents, is why the GOP needs a brokered convention with a dark-horse candidate who can actually beat Slappy.

Karl Magnus on February 16, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I’m afraid to ask, because I fear I know the answer, but … who would that be? I believe the only member of the GOP who’s polling favorably against The Won is Generic Republican.

Syzygy on February 16, 2012 at 9:17 AM

solid analysis Ed. nice work.

ted c on February 16, 2012 at 9:17 AM

KOOLAID2 on February 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

The ad they run in Florida is the PAC ad but from what I understand, it costs a lot of money to run ads here. Doesn’t seem to be the best bang for the buck. Unless it is aimed at snowbirds that will go up North to vote.

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Understood. However, the “You will vote for Romney, and like it, because we’re smarter than you” Campaign, has backfired…Big Time.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:12 AM

KJ,

We blog with WordPress so I thought I was following you. I wrote in the other thread to let you know I am following your blog right now and on Twitter, so pls follow me back! :)

-PPF

ProudPalinFan on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The assumption made, was that average Conservatives, not living in the NE, could not think for themselves, and had to be told whom they must vote for. This Sheeple assumption, as Obama is findout out with the Catholic backlash, is a product of the Establioshments own mythology. Santorum can win. American is 75% Christian.

…And Obama has overplayed his hand.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

ConservativeLaw on February 16, 2012 at 9:03 AM

One of the main goals of a successful site is to provoke reaction (see: endless Palin stories). It doesn’t mean the bloggers themselves are pulling for one team or the other. It’s just entertainment, or infotainment.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

ProudPalinFan on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

You betcha!

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

He’s not a perfect conservative, to be sure, and questions about how he would stack up against Barack Obama in the general election are legitimate concerns.

You should have stopped right there.

Santorum is not the “perfect” conservative he and others have represented (by the way, what does that mean and how does it translate into value for the voting electorate, Rhetorically is doesn’t- especially for the unemployed and people truly worried about the economy). He is a single issue, social conservative with little appeal beyond a core group (plus the DK kids) who believe Romney is the antichrist and would prefer to cast votes against him rather than defeat Obama.

Santorum will have little appeal beyond the historically small group of primary voters and online pundits. Period. Should he become the Republican candidate it will be the most lopsided incumbent victory since James Monroe.

Marcus Traianus on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

The non Reagan republican is winning.

rubberneck on February 16, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Santorum will have little appeal beyond the historically small group of primary voters and online pundits. Period. Should he become the Republican candidate it will be the most lopsided incumbent victory since James Monroe.

Marcus Traianus on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

And that’s why he’s leading by 12 nationally, according to Scott Rasmussen?

Try again.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:19 AM

And you can’t blame me and my fellow “so-cons” for that. My first choice of presidential candidates decided not to run at all six months ago.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:13 AM

..I understand. I “came to Jesus” a few weeks back after hurling insult after brickbat and i realized that those who disliked Romney were not unlike me who loathes The Pandload. So convincing them that Romney was the answer was like some libtard attempting to persuade me that El Presidente Turdbottom was competent.

So I decided that respectful dialog was probably in order, etc.

By the way, didja get the link I posted back up the road there? It’s a keeper and could be of use down the road.

;-)

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

He’ll win MS in the general, that’s all that matters.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 9:02 AM

If he makes it to the General. You need a new Magic Eight-ball.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:06 AM

I don’t need a magic 8-ball to know there is no other realistic choice. Mitt has already wont, you just don’t know it yet.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

The non Reagan republican is winning.

rubberneck on February 16, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Oh, bull. MItt’s not even a Conservative.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

I can’t come here anymore.

cya.

ConservativeLaw on February 16, 2012 at 9:03 AM

You wrote essentially the same thing yesterday. Yet, here you are.

cozmo on February 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Santorum will have little appeal beyond the historically small group of primary voters and online pundits. Period. Should he become the Republican candidate it will be the most lopsided incumbent victory since James Monroe.

Marcus Traianus on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

And assuming everything you said here is true (and I’m not sure that it is), we’ll deserve another four years of Obma. And we’ll get him good and hard. They’ll need to subsidize Preparation H nationally for all the butthurt.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

…And Obama has overplayed his hand.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM

..praying you’re right, KJ.

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

However, the alternatives are the person who signed an individual health-care mandate into law in Massachusetts, and the man who both backed individual mandates until 2010 and sat on a couch with Nancy Pelosi to push global-warming alarmism a few years before that, and both of whom also spent three or four weeks sounding more like an Occupier on Bain Capital and Freddie Mac work than a Republican.

Ed,
I’m supporting Rick Santorum, but I do think that it is unfair of you to completely ignore Ron Paul when talking about the alternatives to Santorum.

ITguy on February 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

will someone explain to me what it is that Mitt brings the table?running closer in blue states? (not winning just closer) I live in MA and Mitt will never carry MA. Isn’t it kinda important that your nominee carry his home state? (see Gore)

rik on February 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I don’t need a magic 8-ball to know there is no other realistic choice. Mitt has already wont, you just don’t know it yet.

Go RBNY on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

And that’s why he’s leading the Rasmussen poll by 12. Oh, wait…He isn’t, is he. Is that Charlie Sheen’s WINNING!#. you’re talking about?

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:22 AM

..I understand. I “came to Jesus” a few weeks back after hurling insult after brickbat and i realized that those who disliked Romney were not unlike me who loathes The Pandload. So convincing them that Romney was the answer was like some libtard attempting to persuade me that El Presidente Turdbottom was competent.

So I decided that respectful dialog was probably in order, etc.

By the way, didja get the link I posted back up the road there? It’s a keeper and could be of use down the road.

;-)

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

I dig respectful disagreement, though I’m only human. I’d be among the first to admit that I’m capable of tempermental douchbaggery from time to time.

And yeah, I got the link. It’s in my bookmarks.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:23 AM

uh huh,…

look chucky, we’ll be here long after you’ve moved on to the fresher hill’s of some Frum project or another, you mod’s have always said you’d go elswhere after you loose a fight with us Teh Crazy Wingnutz..

But the porch light’ll be on,.. once you find out no one is following you.

mark81150 on February 16, 2012 at 9:12 AM

that comment was in context of this:

This desire for unfettered access to sex is probably one of the greatest reasons for this country’s unfortunate descent into the realms of atheism and agnosticism. “A loving God would never be against___” — fill in the blank with “hookups” or any number of sexual deviations. After all, a creator who did not intend for our bodies to engage in rampant and random sex cannot really be worthy of worship, can he?

sure, go puritanic and see how many americans will follow you… you fanatics need to be taught a lesson, not by me, but by the american voters.
I sincerely hope that the majority of social cons are not extreme, but I have no problem in ditching atheist hating fanatics.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:23 AM

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Only Heaven knows why, other than the salubrious press he is getting from people who have really not dug deep into his background and capabilities.

They should talk to the people who defeated him for reelection in Pennsylvania by near historic margins.

Marcus Traianus on February 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

They should talk to the people who defeated him for reelection in Pennsylvania by near historic margins.

Marcus Traianus on February 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

What did Mitt accomplish in his 2nd term? Oh, wait…

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:26 AM

..I understand. I “came to Jesus” a few weeks back after hurling insult after brickbat and i realized that those who disliked Romney were not unlike me who loathes The Pandload. So convincing them that Romney was the answer was like some libtard attempting to persuade me that El Presidente Turdbottom was competent.

So I decided that respectful dialog was probably in order, etc.

By the way, didja get the link I posted back up the road there? It’s a keeper and could be of use down the road.

;-)

The War Planner on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Too bad that the only way to carry that around as a protest sign would be on an iPad on replay, with a snarky comment on the Obama administration.

El Presidente Turdbottom = that’s funny right there. *Larry, The Cable Guy*

ProudPalinFan on February 16, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Only Heaven knows why, other than the salubrious press he is getting from people who have really not dug deep into his background and capabilities.

They should talk to the people who defeated him for reelection in Pennsylvania by near historic margins.

Marcus Traianus on February 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Well how you could vet Mitt Romney superficially and determine that he is any kind of “conservative” is way the hell beyond me. And while I don’t find Newt’s couch sitting with Nancy Pelosi to be as odious as Romneycare, I have issues a-plenty with the corpulent college professor’s apparent lack of constitutional bearing.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

And you can have him. I don’t consider Ron Paul a legit player.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:15 AM

sure, but be warned, I will vote in the general for romney paul or newt. but if the nomination is for santorum, i will vote for obama.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

if the nomination is for santorum, i will vote for obama.
nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Not really a Conservative, are you?

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Rick Santorum is drawing upon two entire regions for his support and it has been interesting to see how this is playing out: the Bible Belt and the Rust Belt. Geographically PA is in the Rust Belt and borders just a bit on the Bible Belt and Santorum’s affinity draws from both.

MI is the buckle of the Rust Belt and if he is able to compete well or even win then the R-party may find itself with someone who can campaign from both ends of the Rust Belt (roughly NJ to MN) and then down through the Mississippi River States, possibly to the Gulf. It has outliers in CO and perhaps a few other places in the West that have stronger roots in the first wave of settlers.

From Blue Collar to Rednecks demographically the history of these States are very similar although ethnicity diverges culture has been shaped by history and experience. He is the first Republican in a generation who has even TRIED to speak the language across the region and it shows a fertile ground left untouched since Reagan. It is half of ‘flyover country’ and if you want to speak the language you need to drive through it, stop and visit at small towns or grow up in it. Some of it extends into Western NY State which is demographically different than downstate NY around NYC. This makes for an interesting set of internal ‘battleground States’ within the Republican Party for delegates…and almost each and every one of them is a ‘Swing State’.

Rick Santorum is far from perfect but he at least has listened to the Tea Party and is willing to learn about it and speak some of the language of it. If he can thread that needle of showing why economic and social conservatism MUST draw upon each other and how they can be fused into a single movement then, win or lose, he will have done a service to the Nation in breaking the stranglehold of the old Establishment as being necessary for success in the Republican Party and not need to be from a family of good fortune to make it.

It isn’t just about MI… it is just a single State that may just be the indicator of the death of the last of the 20th century form of politics. A State mired and destroyed by Progressivism. It and WI may just be points on the way out of this mess and do note that politics is only representative of the change in society, not its leader and if they seek to have government that merely governs, not rules, then it is the wind of death for Progressivism.

ajacksonian on February 16, 2012 at 9:29 AM

The Daily Paul gutted Santorum. Plus he’s scary retrograde. Why are we doing this, GOP?

John the Libertarian on February 16, 2012 at 9:29 AM

sure, but be warned, I will vote in the general for romney paul or newt. but if the nomination is for santorum, i will vote for obama.

nathor on February 16, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Well, y’all can criticize me all you want with the “A vote for Santorum is a vote for Obama” fallacy, but I guaran-damn-tee you, a vote for Obama really is a vote for Obama. Enjoy dying on that hill Nathor, ya douchebag.

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Oh, bull. MItt’s not even a Conservative.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:20 AM

No, I was referring to Santorum, who coined him self a progressive republican in 1990, and stated he was not a Reagan republican. Some conservative. LOL.

rubberneck on February 16, 2012 at 9:30 AM

ajacksonian on February 16, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Very nicely written. Excellent analysis.

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 9:30 AM

The Daily Paul gutted Santorum. Plus he’s scary retrograde. Why are we doing this, GOP?

John the Libertarian on February 16, 2012 at 9:29 AM

I’ll be interested in hearing how “scary retrograde” Santorum is when the Daily Caller guts the Republican Party for being “scary statist-progressive.”

gryphon202 on February 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Ain’t it kool?!

Cindy Munford on February 16, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Yep. Quite spectacular. “Culling the herd”,as it were…

kingsjester on February 16, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Who got banned?

Naturally Curly on February 16, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I don’t believe it. Romney will be the nominee

liberal4life on February 16, 2012 at 9:32 AM

You wrote essentially the same thing yesterday. Yet, here you are.

cozmo on February 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

He’s a pretty dramatic guy, from reading his comments lately.

Night Owl on February 16, 2012 at 9:32 AM

This nomination process will leave Romney BROKE

liberal4life on February 16, 2012 at 9:33 AM

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