CNN poll: Obama’s job approval back to 50%; Update: Obama leads all GOP candidates in swing states

posted at 6:38 pm on February 15, 2012 by Allahpundit

The economy’s looking up and, thanks to our … unfortunate field of GOP presidential candidates, Republican enthusiasm’s looking down.

This is the fourth national poll in two weeks in which O’s hit 50 percent. Dude, I’m nervous.

The president’s approval rating has edged up three points from last month and is up six points from November. The last time Obama’s approval rating was at 50% or above was last May, as a result of the killing of Osama bin Laden, and it stayed there for about a month before fading…

The survey suggests that the contentious Republican primary season has decreased enthusiasm among Republican voters, virtually erasing the “enthusiasm gap” that promised to provide the ultimate GOP presidential nominee with a major advantage in the fall. In October, 64% of Republicans said that they were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president, compared to only 43% of Democratic voters. GOP enthusiasm since that time has tumbled 13 points, to 51%, virtually the same as the Democrats’ level of enthusiasm.

Republicans actually outnumber Democrats in CNN’s sample of registered voters so there’s no obvious reason to suspect the data. The GOP enthusiasm trend (the columns represent “extremely,” “very,” “somewhat,” “not too,” and “not at all” enthusiastic):

Back in October, the field was still huge and we were proceeding apace through the “anyone can win” wheel o’ frontrunners. Three months later, when the January poll was taken, Romney had just won New Hampshire (and Iowa, we thought at the time) so the race suddenly felt like a foregone conclusion. A month later the race is unsettled again, but it’s nastier than ever and no one’s thrilled with their options. I wonder what the numbers look like next month if we get another good jobs report and if the vote splits three ways on Super Tuesday.

Beyond that, Ron Brownstein of National Journal noted yesterday that Obama’s numbers head to head against Romney across various demographics are starting to look a lot like his numbers against McCain four years ago, a sign that the disgruntled Hopenchange coalition might be piecing itself back together. Of special note: The One does six points better against Romney among white women voters than he did against McCain in 2008, and bear in mind that Romney is the stronger of the two top Republican candidates among women right now. He leads Santorum in that demographic by nine points, which is nothing new for RS: He lost women in his 2000 Senate victory and got clobbered among women in his landslide defeat to Bob Casey in 2006. Gonna be a lot of gender politics, starting with his old comments about contraception being “harmful to women,” in the general election if he’s the nominee.

On the other hand:

Romney and Gingrich are perceived as candidates of the rich whereas Santorum is seen as more blue-collar. But even as between Mitt and Newt, there’s a distinction. When tea partiers are asked whether Gingrich favors the rich or the middle class, they split 35/53. (Santorum’s split is 15/65.) When they’re asked about Romney, though, behold:

If even a majority of core conservative voters thinks one of the GOP’s candidates is biased towards the rich then Team Hopenchange clearly has very fertile populist ground on which to attack him in the general. For further reading on that, I’ll leave you with this Nate Silver piece provocatively titled, “Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent.” In key swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana, there are enough working-class white voters to make a big difference to Obama’s margin against Romney if he can exploit perceptions that Mitt’s in the pocket of the, ahem, “one percent.” Santorum would be much tougher for him to beat on that point — but of course, potentially much easier for him to beat among women. Who’s more electable ultimately?

Update: Meanwhile, Fox News says O is up against everyone in a broad regional poll of swing states. Dude, I’m nervous.

These swing states fall into three regional tiers. The Rocky Mountain tier includes Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. The Rust Belt tier includes Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the Dixie tier includes North Carolina, Florida and Virginia.

Across these states, Santorum performs about as well as Romney in matchups with the president.

The swing-state voters back Obama over Romney by 8 percentage points and Santorum by 9 points.

Note: Obama does trail in certain individual swing states. In Ohio, Romney leads him by six and Santorum leads him by three.

Update: Even Obama girl seems ready to vote for him again.


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listens2glenn on February 15, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Youre an idiot. So is Glenn Beck.
Jailbreak on February 15, 2012 at 8:52 PM

.
Jealousy it is.

listens2glenn on February 15, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Great. The election hasn’t even begun and already Allah’s giving us the “gulp” posts. It pissed me off in 2008 and no doubt it’ll piss me off again in 2012 :)

Sharke on February 15, 2012 at 9:01 PM

If Obama wins this country deserves all the ruin and destruction that happens to it because of his policies and agenda. If this country is THAT STUPID….

Nah. At this point with the awful alternatives we are offering the American people, I would not blame any moderate voter who choose the “lesser” of the evils.

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012 at 9:01 PM

And we should all just slit our throats now……. who listens to this cr@p????

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 8:53 PM
So does our party have an identity crisis or not?

Are we a Ficon party, a Socon party, a libertarian party, what are we, because if we lose to Obama in 2012, or look like we are going to, we need to figure out how to politically fight during his 2nd term.

Bluray on February 15, 2012 at 8:56 PM

No. It does not. We all understand the existential crisis O’bozo represents. None, NONE, of our candidates will destroy america. Santorum cannot repeal Roe v Wade. Romney cannot undo social security. This battle is joined where we overlap. Ignore the distractions. O’bozo is the enemy

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:02 PM

The pure “fiscally conservative/socially liberal” independent is largely a mythical creature created by the media. Probably about 90% of the population is committed to either the R’s or the D’s. There’s about 10% of the population who are truly up for grabs, and they span the ideological spectrum from Marxist nutters to Ron Paul goobers.

therightwinger on February 15, 2012 at 9:03 PM

They saw a party whose establishment is quite happy to tar and feather one of their own conservative “heroes” (Newt) just so “their guy” can win.

Why would the people want these slimeballs to run the country?

The GOP is dead.

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012

Way overdramatic here. Newt was never a “conservative hero” – except maybe in his own mind – and he revealed himself to be the biggest slimeball of the bunch.

On the other hand, I’d rather see him get the nomination than Santorum. I see no way that Santorum even makes it a race.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:03 PM

That’s why I think the Pub party is finished. Dems. will control us from now on if we don’t get a third party. Sorry, but that’s the future I see. I have many friends and relatives who are conservatives and who have now given up on politics. Many of them are not going to vote in November no matter who the candidate is.Before this crap started, they were eager to vote for a conservative. Now, not so much.

they lie on February 15, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Because we didn’t run any candidates that could/would catch the “wave”. We ran the same-old-same-old….Newt had it sorta-going for a while, but he wouldn’t shut up.

So, we might be scroomed. A lot Depends on what SCOTUS says in June.

Who is John Galt on February 15, 2012 at 9:03 PM

No. It does not. We all understand the existential crisis O’bozo represents. None, NONE, of our candidates will destroy america. Santorum cannot repeal Roe v Wade. Romney cannot undo social security. This battle is joined where we overlap. Ignore the distractions. O’bozo is the enemy

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Good post.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Well, since I specifically have said (over and over again, in fact) that I will vote for whoever the GOP nominee is, I don’t quite get your point. But, yeah, I say “meh” too – we can both say it ;)

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:58 PM

As many of us social cons have said as well. And yet you have referred to us as misguided etc.

melle1228 on February 15, 2012 at 9:04 PM

And this primary process has shown the people what kind of party the GOP is…

They saw a party whose establishment is quite happy to tar and feather one of their own conservative “heroes” (Newt) just so “their guy” can win.

Why would the people want these slimeballs to run the country?

The GOP is dead.

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012 at 8:57 PM

They PAY these people to do this.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:05 PM

The pure “fiscally conservative/socially liberal” independent is largely a mythical creature created by the media. Probably about 90% of the population is committed to either the R’s or the D’s. There’s about 10% of the population who are truly up for grabs, and they span the ideological spectrum from Marxist nutters to Ron Paul goobers.

therightwinger on February 15, 2012 at 9:03 PM

If they are Marxists or Paulistinians, they are not up for grabs by definition.

Good Lt on February 15, 2012 at 9:06 PM

And, as evidenced by many posts here, this is where the Obama-haters have landed. They must hope the worst for the country in order to see the President lose. They relish the thought that things will get worse for the middle class and the poor and that the suffering will translate into votes for whatever crappy candidate eventually runs against Obama.

Nice. Real nice.

chumpThreads on February 15, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Considering the poor and lower middle class have been decimated by Obama’s policies (does a family bringing in $160,000 a year really need the government to help them out with buying a Volt?), high energy prices, high gas prices, a healthcare overhaul which is causing health insurance to cost more, depreciating home values, handouts to his cronies in the green energy sectors, protection racket for the banking industry…. I could go on and on, but considering all this, you have the gall to say the people here want the country to suffer more because we hate Obama???

I know so many people like you where I live and I am simply amazed by the blatant hypocrisy that almost all of them demonstrate. I simply do not see how you can be so blind to the disaster that Obama has been for this country. Yes, we want him to lose desperately because he is a terrible leader with terrible ideas and is completely unable to see the unintended consequences of just about everything he does. The Ivory Tower might make you terribly intellectual, but it doesn’t necessarily translate to making you smart. Obama is proof of that.

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:06 PM

I’m just wondering if the Santorum-bots even realize that they are supporting a guy with his own definition in the urban dictionary.

Have any of them tried to Google “Santorum”?

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Romney has no charisma. He is a robot. Republicans will not be jumping up and down for him come November

liberal4life on February 15, 2012 at 8:14 PM

So who will they be jumping up and down for, Obama? He’s another robot without charisma.

What people crying about Romney’s lack of charisma fail to realize is that Obama doesn’t have any, either. Obama’s message
was charismatic, but Hope and Change are so 2008. The Teleprompter President who hasn’t given a decent speech in three years is not going to be wowing them on the stump this cycle. Hell, I fell asleep when he was announcing the death of Bin Laden, and that speech only lasted about ten minutes.

Romney, if he is the nominee, will not be running against Bill Clinton. His lack of charisma doesn’t matter.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:07 PM

This is not the only poll to suggest this. Rass says the same thing.

Good Lt on February 15, 2012 at 9:08 PM

urban dictionary.

Ironic. Defined itself right there. Don’t lose focus. Too much at stake. I only believe in the un-O’bozo.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:10 PM

$5 a gallon for gas, $300 for ONE basket of groceries at Wal-Mart etc, Obamacare, Unemployment still through the roof, and you people are worried?

Yeah, our candidates leave MUCH to be desired, but NONE of them even REMOTELY approach Obama’s level of suckdom!

Polls are crap. When it comes down to crunch time, people WILL vote with their wallets.

Ghostflames852 on February 15, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Think about it . . . how in the world could Obama be leading all of the GOP field after the contraception debacle??? He can’t. CNN wants you to believe he can, though.

Because nobody cares. It’s another Obama/Axelrod ruse to distract us from the real issues, and we Republicans have reflexively fallen for it, again.

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I fully expect that on election night 2012, they will be calling some states for obama early, states that he will be in fact losing, but they will call them for Obama in an attempt to influence and tarnish the elctions results.

Not that I expect it,, but imagine the the riots in the streets that will happen if Obama were to actually win the popular vote but lose the elctoral vote. I bet he would not concede power.

JellyToast on February 15, 2012 at 9:11 PM

This is not the only poll to suggest this. Rass says the same thing.

Good Lt on February 15, 2012 at 9:08 PM

And with the economy in FREEFALL McCain got 47%?? What me worry???

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:11 PM

How is it different and what were you doing at the Tea Parties? Were you taking down names so the Obama Truth Teams know who to target? I get bored with the loser talk, anyone telling me we will lose moderates and independants if we don’t choose so and so are the people responsible for getting Obama elected.

You can have your opinion, but you sound like the enemy! This coming from a guy who will support Mitt if he wins. Moderates and independants never seem to run from Democrats insane spending, corruption, lies or overreach. Why would they bother with Democrat-lite when they can have the real thing! I don’t even like Santorum, but if he wins, we fight for it tooth and nail.

If your not in the fight to win, sit on the bench and STFU!

Africanus on February 15, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Yay for the optimists!

I know a lot of people who have been taking a break, preparing for the summer and fall, keeping an eye on the news and paying attention to matters closer to home. The intensity will return.

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:12 PM

I fully expect that on election night 2012, they will be calling some states for obama early, states that he will be in fact losing, but they will call them for Obama in an attempt to influence and tarnish the elctions results.

Not that I expect it,, but imagine the the riots in the streets that will happen if Obama were to actually win the popular vote but lose the elctoral vote. I bet he would not concede power.

JellyToast on February 15, 2012 at 9:11 PM

You’re dating yourself.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:12 PM

I hear ya….I’m feeling pretty down about that too – but it’s too early to lose faith yet.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Don’t wory, we’ll Fix it. The 53% numbers are BS. The “1%” will bail. There won’t be much left.

Who is John Galt on February 15, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Obama leads all GOP candidates in swing states

Explains a lot that’s wrong with this country – too many rubes.

disa on February 15, 2012 at 9:13 PM

If your not in the fight to win, sit on the bench and STFU!

Africanus on February 15, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Right on Zama!!!!!

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:14 PM

And with the economy in FREEFALL McCain got 47%?? What me worry???

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:11 PM

In which election did McCain manage to get 47%?

AngusMc on February 15, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Romney, if he is the nominee, will not be running against Bill Clinton. His lack of charisma doesn’t matter.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Agreed. Plus, Romney is seen as extremely competent, decent and accomplished. I know that his haters think that these qualities pale in comparison to Romneycare! Romneycare!….but the fact is that the average voter feels that Romney would be a good president. They don’t fear him, they don’t think he’s going to go off the rails and wreck the country. It counts for a lot – maybe not to the purists, but to the general public? It counts for a lot.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:14 PM

So who will they be jumping up and down for, Obama? He’s another robot without charisma.

I really hope people aren’t this deluded. I know we all hate the guy, but come on, Obama sucks, but one thing he isn’t lacking in is charisma.

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012 at 9:14 PM

This is not the only poll to suggest this. Rass says the same thing.

Good Lt on February 15, 2012 at 9:08 PM

It very well could be that all the positive media coverage over the past couple of weeks wrt the economy has bumped his numbers up. They can only goose that throttle so much, though. I just don’t see people buying all the happy-clappy stuff for almost a full year.

I still am curious about internals.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:15 PM

The pure “fiscally conservative/socially liberal” independent is largely a mythical creature created by the media. Probably about 90% of the population is committed to either the R’s or the D’s. There’s about 10% of the population who are truly up for grabs, and they span the ideological spectrum from Marxist nutters to Ron Paul goobers.

therightwinger on February 15, 2012 at 9:03 PM

About 37% of Americans are registered as Independents. Registered Republicans are the minority. If the Republicans split and create a 3rd party they’ll wind up with about 14% of the vote. I can’t see that winning an election.
http://www.people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/

talkingpoints on February 15, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Actually, the “1%” have already bailed, it’s called “Globalism” and they got the memo a couple of decades ago.

Who is John Galt on February 15, 2012 at 9:16 PM

The ‘true cons’ are engaged in Operation Chaos v 2.0 right now, and it’s working. For Obama.

Good Lt on February 15, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Anyone who believes the media is a moron. In order to sway the vast majority and growing number of Americans who have finally faced up to the fact that Obama is purposefully trying to destroy the United States of America, the Obama Media have begun their side of the Obama syndicate’s overall strategy of lying to us. Polls now show 50% of voters would vote for Obama. Intelligent people—even those few on the Left—know this is a lie. But, it’s what all third-world countries have done since their inception.

DougDavis on February 15, 2012 at 9:17 PM

melle1228 on February 15, 2012 at 8:41 PM

A lot of really devout people don’t feel the need to discuss their faith, it actually use to be considered bad manners to talk religion or politics or sex lives. Now we not only talk about all of them ad nauseam but expect everyone to agree. We need a happy medium.

Cindy Munford on February 15, 2012 at 9:17 PM

45.7. Still not remotely concerned.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:18 PM

The pure “fiscally conservative/socially liberal” independent is largely a mythical creature created by the media. Probably about 90% of the population is committed to either the R’s or the D’s. There’s about 10% of the population who are truly up for grabs, and they span the ideological spectrum from Marxist nutters to Ron Paul goobers.

therightwinger on February 15, 2012 at 9:03 PM

I’m a mythological creature? Go figure. Albeit I wouldn’t call myself hardcore socially liberal but I’m defiantly left of center. Judging by the people I know there are 25% hardcore Ds and 25% hardcore Rs. The other 50% either votes for the lesser of 2 evils, goes 3rd party, or doesn’t vote at all because they despise both parties so much.

I’d also say that most conservatives under 30 are fiscally conservative/socially liberal or at least left of center like me. If the Republican party doesn’t start listening to the voices of the younger conservatives they will quickly find themselves a third party.

ManFromNowhere on February 15, 2012 at 9:18 PM

I really hope people aren’t this deluded. I know we all hate the guy, but come on, Obama sucks, but one thing he isn’t lacking in is charisma.

tkyang99 on February 15, 2012 at 9:14 PM

He has NO charisma. That’s why he needs stage props and teleprompters. get real. Think Mt. Olympus.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:20 PM

If the Republican party doesn’t start listening to the voices of the younger conservatives they will quickly find themselves a third party.

ManFromNowhere on February 15, 2012 at 9:18 PM

What would make you feel heard?

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:21 PM

. Perhaps devoted to the wrong religion in some peoples’ minds.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:41 PM

You can’t gripe about Sen. Santorum’s devotion to his faith and use Gov. Romney’s as a reason for him not being universally embraced.

Cindy Munford on February 15, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Ob

ama leads all GOP candidates in swing states

Explains a lot that’s wrong with this country – too many rubes.

disa on February 15, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Explains what’s wrong with the GOP. No credibility.

urban elitist on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

A lot of really devout people don’t feel the need to discuss their faith, it actually use to be considered bad manners to talk religion or politics or sex lives. Now we not only talk about all of them ad nauseam but expect everyone to agree. We need a happy medium.

Cindy Munford on February 15, 2012 at 9:17 PM

I understand that, but the sudden chicken little syndrome that everyone has with Santorum about contraception comes from a faith position not a policy position. Santorum has said over and over again that his position on contraception is one of faith and not law. And just like I don’t think Romney should be accused of being in a cult or wearing magic underwear(insert Mormon slur), I don’t think Santorum should be discounted because his faith believes that contraception is harmful to society.

melle1228 on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

I know a lot of people who have been taking a break, preparing for the summer and fall, keeping an eye on the news and paying attention to matters closer to home. The intensity will return.

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:12 PM

We’ll see.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

45.7 %. And it was McCain. That Charismatic GOD.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Odumbo is the anti-Christ come true……

ultracon on February 15, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Explains what’s wrong with the GOP. No credibility.

urban elitist on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

You put da lime in da coconut and drink it all up…

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Explains what’s wrong with the GOP. No credibility.

urban elitist on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

at 15 plus trillion and counting, that’s just D@mn funny.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Your point being that we can lose moderates, independents and fiscal cons, as long as the evangelical base is satisfied? Your point is not well taken. Romney has done everything he could to reassure the base…

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 8:26 PM

You are correct, Priscilla, and the base has repeatedly said, we don’t want you. It’s about time Romney listen. If he does, he can win.

The idea that a Party’s candidate needs the base to win only works in a two party system. For all the blathering about Romney being the establishment candidate, he is, in fact, the only anti-establishment candidate in the race. Romney’s money and organization belong to him. He, unlike Santorum and Gingrich, is not dependent on the party structure to fund and run a successful general campaign against Obama. If Santorum gets the Republican nomination, Romney can pack up his toys, leave the Republican Party, and run independent. And he won’t be running as a spoiler.

42 percent of the American public may self-identify as conservative but, sorry guys, only about 20 percent of that is base. Obama’s liberal base is also only about 20 percent of the electorate. Give each of them another ten percent towards the middle, and that still leaves Romney with room to win with 40 percent of the vote in the center. He can peel off enough conservatives and right-leaning moderates disgusted at the thought of Santorum, and he can peel off left-moderates and centrists eager to abandon Obama but afraid to go completely right. Don’t think it can’t happen, and don’t think Romney hasn’t thought of it.

So Romney ends up as President, but now the base gets nothing, because Romney owes them nothing. Keep Romney in the Republican Party and put him in the White House and the base has influence. Run Santorum in a traditional two-party race and Obama wins and the base gets nothing.

Rather than crowing about how important it is, I think the base needs to ponder the possibility of its own irrelevency. It can happen. Ask the Whigs and the Federalists.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

They PAY these people to do this.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:05 PM

They do, and it didn’t help to have that last open enrollment here. We are getting beat up on every thread now.

wi farmgirl on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

We’ll see.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Cheer up, woman! :-)

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Nom de Boom

Nice to meet you.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Considering the poor and lower middle class have been decimated by Obama’s policies (does a family bringing in $160,000 a year really need the government to help them out with buying a Volt?), high energy prices, high gas prices, a healthcare overhaul which is causing health insurance to cost more, depreciating home values, handouts to his cronies in the green energy sectors, protection racket for the banking industry…. I could go on and on, but considering all this, you have the gall to say the people here want the country to suffer more because we hate Obama???

The economy is showing signs of turning around and it is the Obama-haters’ worst nightmare. It doesn’t take any gall on my part to read the comments in this thread and understand the obvious: good news for the economy is bad news for the Repubicans.

Obama took office with the country in recession and things look like they’re getting better. Deal.

I know so many people like you where I live and I am simply amazed by the blatant hypocrisy that almost all of them demonstrate. I simply do not see how you can be so blind to the disaster that Obama has been for this country. Yes, we want him to lose desperately because he is a terrible leader with terrible ideas and is completely unable to see the unintended consequences of just about everything he does. The Ivory Tower might make you terribly intellectual, but it doesn’t necessarily translate to making you smart. Obama is proof of that.

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:06 PM

You’re entitled to your opinion about the President’s performance. I think he’s done as good a job as possible with an opposition devoted to only one thing: defeating him. Notice how the Republicans in Congress have changed their tune and and decided not to cut their own throats on extending tax cuts and unemployment benefits. They may be dumb, but they’re not stupid.
Obama is proof of that.

chumpThreads on February 15, 2012 at 9:27 PM

wi farmgirl on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

I guess that means Hot Gas was effective. Type faster

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:27 PM

I don’t think Santorum should be discounted because his faith believes that contraception is harmful to society.

melle1228 on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

I agree with you…and I do not believe that Santorum wants to outlaw contraception. But that will be the meme – already it is out there, and Santorum had better be able to counter it, which I don’t know if he capable of doing.

For me, he needs to convince me that he is not a “compassionate” big-spending government guy and that he has at least a basic set of of executive skills. So far, I haven’t seen evidence.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:28 PM

melle1228 on February 15, 2012 at 9:22 PM

I agree. I don’t believe either gentlemen would push their beliefs on the nation but that they are simply what guide their lives. I am intrigued that for Sen. Santorum it is being pretzeled into a disqualifier but for Gov. Romney it is portrayed as a form of bigotry.

Cindy Munford on February 15, 2012 at 9:29 PM

So Romney ends up as President, but now the base gets nothing, because Romney owes them nothing. Keep Romney in the Republican Party and put him in the White House and the base has influence. Run Santorum in a traditional two-party race and Obama wins and the base gets nothing.

Rather than crowing about how important it is, I think the base needs to ponder the possibility of its own irrelevency. It can happen. Ask the Whigs and the Federalists.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

That’s an odd scenario to posit. It kind of sounds like you’re saying Romney isn’t a conservative, no?

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Cheer up, woman! :-)

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Haha – thanks, I needed that!

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:30 PM

I’d also say that most conservatives under 30 are fiscally conservative/socially liberal or at least left of center like me. If the Republican party doesn’t start listening to the voices of the younger conservatives they will quickly find themselves a third party.

ManFromNowhere on February 15, 2012 at 9:18 PM

And what makes you socially liberal? Gay marriage? Amnesty for illegals? Abortion??? The more I think about it, the harder it is for me to understand what socially liberal positions a conservative would take.

So reallyi then you’re a liberal who wants fiscal conservatism.

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:30 PM

There is no one to blame but the American People. Don’t anyone get it yet? Americans love being raped and punished. They want to be told what to do, they want to give up their freedom. As gas prices rise so does Obama’s approval rating, Americans want to be slapped around because they can’t make it on their own. Face it this country is over, there are more parasites then producers and the American people like it that way

Conservative4ev on February 15, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Obama’s positives are rising and will continue to rise because the GOP isn’t and will not offer a compelling alternative. Period. End of story.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Nom de Boom

Nice to meet you.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Likewise, mang.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:31 PM

So Romney ends up as President, but now the base gets nothing, because Romney owes them nothing. Keep Romney in the Republican Party and put him in the White House and the base has influence. Run Santorum in a traditional two-party race and Obama wins and the base gets nothing.

Rather than crowing about how important it is, I think the base needs to ponder the possibility of its own irrelevency. It can happen. Ask the Whigs and the Federalists.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

You forget that Romney would want to be re-elected.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:31 PM

I might be channeling Allah, but face it…

Some times it’s dark just before it darker.

Bruno Strozek on February 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

I LOVE this lose the youth vote meme. I am sure they like their 24% jobless rate. Their parent’s house must look sweet.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

There is no one to blame but the American People. Don’t anyone get it yet? Americans love being raped and punished. They want to be told what to do, they want to give up their freedom. As gas prices rise so does Obama’s approval rating, Americans want to be slapped around because they can’t make it on their own. Face it this country is over, there are more parasites then producers and the American people like it that way I’m a whiny defeatist. Ignore me.

Conservative4ev on February 15, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

I agree. I don’t believe either gentlemen would push their beliefs on the nation but that they are simply what guide their lives. I am intrigued that for Sen. Santorum it is being pretzeled into a disqualifier but for Gov. Romney it is portrayed as a form of bigotry.

Cindy Munford on February 15, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Actually, I find it rather discriminatory. If you’re worried that Santorum’s theological stance against contraception means that he will outlaw condoms, then doesn’t Romney’s Mormon abstinence from alcohol mean we’re headed to another Prohibition?

People who can’t understand the difference between personal opinion and political position are the same sort of people who can’t understand the difference between tolerance and acceptance.

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:34 PM

If the election were in nine days, I’d be gulping, too. It’s still nine months away. Lot of things will happen between then and now.

Mr. D on February 15, 2012 at 9:34 PM

I LOVE this lose the youth vote meme. I am sure they like their 24% jobless rate. Their parent’s house must look sweet.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

They so totally have a foosball table in the basement.

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Rather than crowing about how important it is, I think the base needs to ponder the possibility of its own irrelevency. It can happen. Ask the Whigs and the Federalists.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

That whole “analysis” is so cockeyed it’s hard and tedious to pick it apart. But the GOP establishment is what is irrelevant and doomed to Whigdom, not the base. It was the base that powered the GOP takeover of the House last cycle, not the establishment. While Romney may himself not be “establishment”, he is most certainly the establishment favorite. The establishment’s only relevance lies in its skill in kneecapping and destroying members of its own party. Nothing else. If Romney’s the nominee, you’ll see beginning next November just how “irrelevant” the base is.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:36 PM

I might be channeling Allah, but face it…

Some times it’s dark just before it darker.

Bruno Strozek on February 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Wow. almost surrealistic.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:37 PM

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Comment that you aren’t convinced that Gov. Romney should be the nominee and you will find out all you need to know about tolerance and acceptance. Statistically the numbers are probably small but they make up for it in quantity and “quality”.

Cindy Munford on February 15, 2012 at 9:38 PM

They so totally have a foosball table in the basement.

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Yeah, but silicone lube costs money

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:38 PM

It was the base that powered the GOP takeover of the House last cycle, not the establishment. While Romney may himself not be “establishment”, he is most certainly the establishment favorite. The establishment’s only relevance lies in its skill in kneecapping and destroying members of its own party.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:36 PM

This. +100

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Not a defeatist but a realist

Conservative4ev on February 15, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Yeah, but silicone lube costs money

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:38 PM

I snorted.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Romney’s money and organization belong to him. He, unlike Santorum and Gingrich, is not dependent on the party structure to fund and run a successful general campaign against Obama. If Santorum gets the Republican nomination, Romney can pack up his toys, leave the Republican Party, and run independent. And he won’t be running as a spoiler.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Hilarious. After three years of being talked up by various GOP establishment flacks as a god of electability and the ONLY one who can beat Obama, the rubes are in revolt and Mr Inevitable is having trouble getting past some third-stringers. And we’re supposed to believe that a standalone Romney running as an independent would be something more than a sick joke? LOL Come. On.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:41 PM

Not a defeatist but a realist

Conservative4ev on February 15, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Come on, dude. Your whole comment was one extended S&M metaphor. I had to do it for your own good.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:41 PM

It was the base that powered the GOP takeover of the House last cycle, not the establishment. While Romney may himself not be “establishment”, he is most certainly the establishment favorite. The establishment’s only relevance lies in its skill in kneecapping and destroying members of its own party.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:36 PM
This. +100

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:39 PM

The tea party is not that stupid. Keep trying.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:41 PM

I snorted.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:40 PM

my space bar doesn’t work anymore

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Anyone have the Party ID breakdown of the CNN poll?

SandyK on February 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Actually, I find it rather discriminatory. If you’re worried that Santorum’s theological stance against contraception means that he will outlaw condoms, then doesn’t Romney’s Mormon abstinence from alcohol mean we’re headed to another Prohibition?

People who can’t understand the difference between personal opinion and political position are the same sort of people who can’t understand the difference between tolerance and acceptance.

AJsDaddie on February 15, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Just playing devil’s advocate here, but Romney hasn’t promised to start talking about the evils of alcohol and caffeine once he’s elected.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

You’re entitled to your opinion about the President’s performance. I think he’s done as good a job as possible with an opposition devoted to only one thing: defeating him. Notice how the Republicans in Congress have changed their tune and and decided not to cut their own throats on extending tax cuts and unemployment benefits. They may be dumb, but they’re not stupid.
Obama is proof of that.

chumpThreads on February 15, 2012 at 9:27 PM

And there is where I cry BS. After the 2008 election, Republicans were decimated. I remember my moderate Obama supporting friends telling me that he would be great, and thinking, well maybe I’m wrong, I’ll give him a chance.

He had no opposition – Democrats held the House and the Senate, mind you, and what have we gotten? An appalling stimulus package that did nothing to affect unemployment (“it will keep it under 8%” – remember?), then a health care overhaul bill so bad that Democrats had to be bribed to pass it even with majorities in both houses. The resulting Tea Party movement actually gave the outnumbered Republicans some spine to be real opposition, which is what the founding fathers intended, and 2010 gave them the majority in one wing of government.

Think about that as you tell yourself that he has done a pretty good job. He had big numbers in the House and the Senate and could have passed whatever he wanted and look what he chose to do. He has screwed the middle class for at least a generation and accepted lots of money from the banking guys that created this mess in the first place. Now, he’s begging them for money again. How do you square that?

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

^ I guess Romney’s base if he ran as an independent would be independent voters. The problem is that only about 20-some-odd percent of those voters have a favorable opinion of Romney.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM

That’s an odd scenario to posit. It kind of sounds like you’re saying Romney isn’t a conservative, no?

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:29 PM

No sir, not at all. I am saying that Romney is a conservative; he’s just not conservative enough for the base. Not only that, he’s never going to win over the base. So why not stop trying. Stay in the Republican party and he needs base votes. Run independent, and he doesn’t.

You forget that Romney would want to be re-elected.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Correct, sir, but he will be running to be elected by the same coalition that put him in power to begin with. And that coalition will not include the base.

If the Republicans put Romney in office, he is beholden to the base, and will have to give them enough to be reelected. The base will have power and influence. Let Romney be elected as an independent and he will be beholden to a much less conservative coalition.

Let me add this. If I were Romney, I would count on a lot of base voters being so afraid that he would split the conservative vote and hand a victory to Obama that plenty of them would abandon Santorum make sure Obama was defeated. Because there are only two viable options if Romney runs independent – Obama is President, or he is. Santorum can’t win in that scenario.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM

my space bar doesn’t work anymore

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

lol

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Correct, sir, but he will be running to be elected by the same coalition that put him in power to begin with. And that coalition will not include the base.

wrong. Incumbent’s advantage

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Obama leads all GOP candidates in swing states: CNN Poll.

Whew – don’t scare me like that again!! I nearly had a coronary, until I got to the “CNN Poll” part.

drunyan8315 on February 15, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Correct, sir, but he will be running to be elected by the same coalition that put him in power to begin with. And that coalition will not include the base.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Which is where your fantasy breaks down. Romney does NOT WIN WITHOUT THE BASE. Will not happen.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:48 PM

No sir, not at all. I am saying that Romney is a conservative; he’s just not conservative enough for the base. Not only that, he’s never going to win over the base. So why not stop trying. Stay in the Republican party and he needs base votes. Run independent, and he doesn’t.

SNIP

Let me add this. If I were Romney, I would count on a lot of base voters being so afraid that he would split the conservative vote and hand a victory to Obama that plenty of them would abandon Santorum make sure Obama was defeated. Because there are only two viable options if Romney runs independent – Obama is President, or he is. Santorum can’t win in that scenario.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Ok, got it. You really think Romney could peel off that many D-leaning independents, though, as opposed to just splitting the R vote?

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I know I’m late to the thread but putting Romney aside, conservatives will support either Newt or Santorum.

The game is the campaign – Carter led Reagan before Reagan crushed Carter. Polls this far out are not a good indicator of fall voting. Not to worry – gas prices will soon take care of Obama poll numbers. How long before Israel decides that they are not going to allow someone to exterminate them? The last group of people I would want to corner in the World are the Israeli’s. There’s a lot that will happen between now and Nov. Barack won’t be given the benefit of the doubt.

And, the R presidential camnpaign will be run. So long as it’s not Mitt it will go better than the McCain campaign (low bar). Only Allah Pundit and the GOP see Obama as a winner. He’ll be beaten and beaten badly so long as Mitt is not on the top of the ticket; if that happens all bets are off…

For folks who complained about ‘Newt attacking from the left…’ I think complaining and condemning Newt was a mistake. People know the difference between an entrepreneur and a predator – predators they hate – that would be Romney; Bill Gates, Steve Jobs – both entrpreneuers – people respect them wether they like them or not. Same goes for Buffet who maintains company value vice extracting what’s left and shipping jobs overseas.

Pretending Mitt Romney is the Father of Capitalism and acting as if he earned the goofy defense made for him insulted the intelligence of many many people. NOT SMART. People can tell when someone succeeds because they gamed the system and used bailouts and PBGC vice true business people who actually created something of lasting value.

If Mitt is at the top – be prepared for another 2 years of a Dem Senate because we will lose in VA and in FL based on Romney’s ability to depress the vote – a v. desirable trait for the guy on the top of the ticket\sarc

NVA Patriot on February 15, 2012 at 9:49 PM

….but the fact is that the average voter feels that Romney would be a good president.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:14 PM

So why is he plummeting in the polls?

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:49 PM

“If the election were in nine days, I’d be gulping, too. It’s still nine months away. Lot of things will happen between then and now.

Mr. D on February 15, 2012 at 9:34 PM”

Why would you be worried, I have yet to hear all the glorious happenings that would result in an Obama re-election. Some of you people are so easy. The loon just subjected another budget with a trillion dollar deficit. People are still losing their jobs and homes. So far all I have heard from Obama is that if he didn’t spend trillions of dollars we would have fallen off the cliff, it would have been much worse Sorry that is not a winning message!

Africanus on February 15, 2012 at 9:50 PM

The economy is showing signs of turning around and it is the Obama-haters’ worst nightmare. It doesn’t take any gall on my part to read the comments in this thread and understand the obvious: good news for the economy is bad news for the Repubicans.

Obama took office with the country in recession and things look like they’re getting better. Deal.

I wish the economy was getting better. You need to take a look around. Underemployment is around 16%, gas prices which hit the middle and lower classes much harder than the affluent are going up again. That affects the cost of EVERYTHING.

Frankly, if I really wanted to see Obama fail, I would wish for his reelection because the s–t is about to hit the fan in the Middle East, we don’t know what’s going to happen with the Euro but it won’t be good, and his energy policies are going to drive energy prices through the roof. It would be better for Republicans if Obama was sitting in the Oval Office when the house of cards starts to fall.

But don’t mind me, I live in a college town surrounded by wishful thinkers like yourself. It’s hugely entertaining.

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Ok, got it. You really think Romney could peel off that many D-leaning independents, though, as opposed to just splitting the R vote?

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:49 PM

LOL, it’s Fantasyland.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:51 PM

How do you square that?

piglet on February 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Because racist.

Nom de Boom on February 15, 2012 at 9:51 PM

at 15 plus trillion and counting, that’s just D@mn funny.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:25 PM

And yet the Republicans can’t come up with a persuasive argument in favor of their dogma. Just how lame — and wrong — are they?

Oh, yeah. I forgot. It’s the meeeeeeedia.

urban elitist on February 15, 2012 at 9:51 PM

It was the base that powered the GOP takeover of the House last cycle, not the establishment. While Romney may himself not be “establishment”, he is most certainly the establishment favorite. The establishment’s only relevance lies in its skill in kneecapping and destroying members of its own party.

No it was not. It was a coalition, not unlike the Reagan revolution produced. The Tea Party elected Scott Brown, the ultimate Massachessetts RINO, and celebrated his victory, because it was a victory of a united GOP. Mitt Romney was first to endorse Marco Rubio against Charlie Crist – maybe because it was Crist who put the shiv in his back in 2008 – but it was an important endorsement for Rubio, because Romney,
the “establishment guy” was pulling for the “tea party guy”.

It’s conservatives that seek to tear the party apart into factions that are destroying it.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Correct, sir, but he will be running to be elected by the same coalition that put him in power to begin with. And that coalition will not include the base.

If the Republicans put Romney in office, he is beholden to the base, and will have to give them enough to be reelected. The base will have power and influence. Let Romney be elected as an independent and he will be beholden to a much less conservative coalition.

Let me add this. If I were Romney, I would count on a lot of base voters being so afraid that he would split the conservative vote and hand a victory to Obama that plenty of them would abandon Santorum make sure Obama was defeated. Because there are only two viable options if Romney runs independent – Obama is President, or he is. Santorum can’t win in that scenario.

Mr. Arkadin on February 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Sorry. I took a minute to reread all of that.

Mostly I agree. But the base willl either fall behind the nominee or face 4 more years of an Obama type. Where do you see it going? A republican nominee will always be beholden to the base, just as O’bozo nixed the keystone pipeline.

WryTrvllr on February 15, 2012 at 9:53 PM

No it was not.

Priscilla on February 15, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Yes. It. Was.

ddrintn on February 15, 2012 at 9:54 PM

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