Why isn’t Sarah running?

posted at 4:00 pm on February 12, 2012 by J.E. Dyer

I’ll take a crack at it.  Her CPAC speech today was a barn-burner, hitting every conservative, small-government point and pumping out soundbites that will no doubt resonate in the public dialogue for days to come.  Some of my favorites:

“Drain the Jacuzzi!”

“This government isn’t too big to fail, it’s too big to succeed.”

“We don’t want an economy built to last, we want an economy built to grow.”

“This is Obama’s Washington.”

I wonder, however, if one of the points she hammered throughout the speech really registered with her audience.  Her signature line in this speech was “The door is open.”  She meant that political conditions are becoming conducive to a renewed commitment to small government and liberty.  People’s mindsets are changing.  We are not governed by the “rules” of political seasons past; the door is open to choosing our candidates and charting our nation’s future on a different basis.  The door is open to not accepting a continuation of the false compromises of previous decades.

(As I go to press, I see that Tina Korbe picked up on this theme.)

I have referred to those false compromises – “compromises” in which the conservative, small-government side gave up virtually everything – as the “old consensus.”  I see it losing, bit by bit, in this primary season.  People are no longer obediently making their political choices within the parameters defined for them by the professional political class.

This doesn’t mean that the voters have ideal candidates with whom to make their statement against the old consensus.  Santorum and Gingrich both have their drawbacks, as Paul always has.  But a critical mass of voters has recognized that Romney is the old consensus, and they are rejecting it.  The CPAC vote was remarkable for Romney’s 38% — because it wasn’t bigger, because Santorum got 31%, and even Gingrich, in a conclave of the politically connected, got 15%.

Everyone outpolled Ron Paul at CPAC, even though he has regularly won the CPAC vote in the past.  This signals a change in the mindset of politically active conservatives – not merely a new perspective that it’s overwhelmingly important to defeat Obama, but a perspective that the core of the conservative movement is shifting, and we need a serious mainstream candidate because it is a life-or-death matter to be effective in the political process.

That obviously doesn’t mean the CPAC voters think we need a “moderate,” leadership- and media-approved candidate.  If it did, they would have gone for Romney, rather than voting 46% for the mainstream candidates who are not Romney – and who are perceived, in many if not all cases correctly, as less satisfied with and enthusiastically “managerial” about the matter of big government.

But the point to take away is that voter sentiment, as it relates to the meaning of different candidates and the basis of government, is changing.

And that, I think, is about half the reason why Sarah Palin didn’t throw her hat in the ring for this campaign cycle.  Her evaluation of political conditions is remarkably accurate and prescient:  she saw, long before most of the voters did, that the game of expectations itself needed to change, and that only we could do it.

What strategic value was there for Palin in participating in the Cynical Media Slime-fest and All-Out Kick-em-in-the-Nads, mud-slinging, business-as-usual, expectations-on-autopilot primary season?

Six or eight months ago, the sea change in the voters’ sentiments and propensities might have been foreseeable, but it hadn’t happened yet.  Those who think Palin could have won lots of primaries on the basis of pre-primary voter sentiments are wrong, I think.  After all, the business-as-usual approach – Karl Rove tells everyone how bad a candidate is, the media magnify his or her every quirk or mistake, the media and some (not all) of the other candidates pile on with allegations that range from hostile spin to outright falsehood – has so far felled our most conservative candidates.

But in the process, the voters have been changing.  That’s what Palin saw before others did.  Do I think she is counting the days to a brokered convention?  No.  There is no one who could reasonably adopt that as a “plan.”  She won’t run this year; that’s my rational assessment as well as my gut feeling.  (I could of course be wrong, although I think some big conditions will have to change more for that to be the case.)

But if she does run, it will not be because she has changed, but because we have.  There are political conditions in which she could run successfully, and conditions in which she couldn’t.  The latter have constituted our political environment up until the last couple of months.

If the conditions are changing now, I believe that is largely because voters are having to wise up to the flaws in our own thinking by going through this ugly spectacle.  We already knew that the media have no intention of giving our candidates a fair shake, and that many in the GOP leadership want to submarine the small-government conservatives.   What many voters didn’t understand is that if we want to select leaders of character, we have to graduate from high school, and overlook the vicissitudes of “presentation” that sometimes make good people look like buffoons to those who see without humility, mercy, or discrimination.  We have to see with better eyes.  We have to think independently of the jeers embedded in the media narrative.  We have to be wiser citizens, placing in political leadership only the hope that is appropriate to free men and women.

We can’t have a candidate who sounds like Mitt Romney, but will lead the way a small-government conservative would.  That’s not an option.  What we’re doing in this primary season is coming to grips with that reality.  I think Palin knew instinctively that we would have to, before it would make sense for her to jump back into the electoral fray.

But, as I said, I think that’s only about half the explanation.  The other half is that Palin is an evangelical Christian.  She believes God has a plan for her life, and that He gives her a certainty in her spirit about the big choices she has to make.  I suspect she has had a peaceful certainty that joining the campaign as a candidate for 2012 was not something she should do.  If she were to analyze it, she might say that God knows better than any of us how the voters’ concerns and expectations are going to change.

Meanwhile, the door is open.

J.E. Dyer’s articles have appeared at The Green Room, Commentary’s “contentions,Patheos, The Weekly Standard online, and her own blog, The Optimistic Conservative.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5 8

Neat, huh?

Jailbreak on February 12, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Neat, you want to see something neat? Here I brought this over from the other thread Hater.

Two reasons:

1) Her voice makes dogs howl. It is easier on the ears to hear fingernails on chalkboard.

2) She is pretty dumb. She jumped through 7 weak barely accreddited or non-accreddited schools to get a weak bachelors degree.

2) The Glenn Rick issue.

Jailbreak on February 11, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Math is hard ‘n’ s#!t.

Walter Sobchak on February 11, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Now that right there is neat, neat huh?

Bmore on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Gov. Palin is the most successful project of destruction ever taken on by the media.

Cindy Munford on February 12, 2012 at 4:56 PM

That she was.

But she also helped them out. One of her biggest missteps was an unforced error. Perky Katie asked her what magazines she reads? The Governor whiffed.

We need to avoid glossing over that error. It was a defining moment for her political future. The young kids don’t pay attention to much, but that resonated with them and anyone on the fence at all.

When she’s on message, she’s tremendous. She’s more polished now than she was 4 years ago, and maybe she could be rehabilitated over time to a point that she’s electable. But in an election this significant, putting Palin up against the One’s machine would be doomed to failure, and she’d be done in politics, damaged beyond any hope of return.

EconomicNeocon on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Two reasons:

1) Her voice makes dogs howl. It is easier on the ears to hear fingernails on chalkboard.

2) She is pretty dumb. She jumped through 7 weak barely accreddited or non-accreddited schools to get a weak bachelors degree.

2) The Glenn Rick issue.

Jailbreak on February 11, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Math is hard ‘n’ s#!t.

Walter Sobchak on February 11, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Bmore on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

She is a clown I’m a clown and her Mitt supporters are mostly clowns too.

Neat, huh?

Jailbreak on February 12, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Fixed for the biggest clown.

JPeterman on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Jailbreak on February 12, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Actually she already won 22 or 23 states in 2008 when Hope and Change was riding high and that economic collapse happened.

CoolChange80 on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

sheryl on February 12, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Why do you insist on showing your ignorance?

NoNails on February 12, 2012 at 4:41 PM

because she is sooooo good at it ???

conservative tarheel on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

J.E. makes some good points. It will be the times that choose Sarah Palin and they will.

CoolChange80 on February 12, 2012 at 5:07 PM

J.E. always makes good points :)

darwin on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Palin wouldnt run because

1 The base considers her a lightweight, and the polling reflected it. They honestly like her, they don’t think she’s up to it, and the polling reflected it.

2. Everyone knows she’s an amnesty supporter, and a “McCain light”, as she showed in 2008 and 2010 when she stumped for the awful old bastard yet again.

3. Then there was this, and it may have been the clincher. I believe it was. I think she was running until this came out. The rumored tryst with Glenn Rice back in the late 80s, which he confirms took place, and she denies, would have sunk her.

She realized it would, and decided at the last second not to force herself on the GOP, which didn’t want her, even though she intended to. It’s better for everyone that way.

That author that stalked her all those months is a sleazeball, and a tryst like that before marriage makes no difference to me, but it would have to the GOP base, which I am a reluctant member of. Anyway, she couldnt have come close to winning, and the aamnesty opponents would have been as demoralized as they were during 2008, anyway.

I’d never have voted for her under any circumstances, nor Perry, nor Gingrich.

As stands now, we have Santorum and Romney, and we’ll be fine. Bachmann would have been great, but she cracked under the pressure too.

Shame.

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Why isn’t Sarah running?
You mean she isn’t? Then what in the hell is she doing on TV all the time?

borntoraisehogs on February 12, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Hmmmm.. You know, that is a great question. So here is your answer:

To piss off the liberals. To spread the simple message of conservatism. But most of all? To give you some agida.

Key West Reader on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Why isn’t Sarah running?
You mean she isn’t? Then what in the hell is she doing on TV all the time?
borntoraisehogs on February 12, 2012 at 5:07 PM

What any good conservative politico with high visibility is doing during election season….firing up the base…..and diffentiating conservative ideals from that of a failed President’s marxist dictates.

I’m baffled by the question.

Tim_CA on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Could “Jailbreak” and “Liberal4Life” be any dumber?

Amjean on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

I truly believe she could stand toe to toe with Putin and not blink. We’ve seen how well our current President has done with him.

TugboatPhil on February 12, 2012 at 5:03 PM

epic, if this is not sheer, unadulterated entertainment, I don’t know what is :)…now this above should be made into the next conservative litmus test :-)…

jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

JPeterman on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM,

Nice work.

CoolChange80 on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Or maybe you prefer this kind of neat.

Two reasons:

1) Her voice makes dogs howl. It is easier on the ears to hear fingernails on chalkboard.

2) She is pretty dumb. She jumped through 7 weak barely accreddited or non-accreddited schools to get a weak bachelors degree.

2) The Glenn Rick issue.

Jailbreak on February 11, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Stupidest post evah; devoid of anything resembling a point, and, you can’t count.

massrighty on February 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Pretty neat, huh?

Bmore on February 12, 2012 at 5:13 PM

But if she does run, it will not be because she has changed, but because we have.
================

January 21, 2011
Sarah Palin, Combat Veteran
******************************
******************************

A study commission chartered by Congress is poised to send up to Capitol Hill a recommendation that the last remaining barriers to women – those that formally exclude them from infantry, armor and special forces — be removed.

As far as I’m concerned, we already have our first female combat soldier, a breathtakingly brave warrior who suffers the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune for the sake of our freedom, every day.

Sarah Palin stands alone in America and the world. Name one other public figure anywhere on the globe today who symbolizes the uncompromising fight for liberty….Waiting…Waiting…

As for her Republican rivals, blogger Kevin DuJan of Hillbuzz has sure got their number: they’re not activist members of a political party; they’re lazy guests at a Cocktail Party.

While Sarah is putting her life at risk — staffers say that since the Tucson blood libel, she’s getting death threats at an “unprecedented rate”

— Mitt Romney can’t even bother to lead from the rear. He’s hanging around the country club, eating soggy cucumber-and-mayonnaise sandwiches, and waiting for Sarah to win the war.

Then he’ll gallop on to the battlefield, hair stylist in tow, and flash his Dudley Do Right grin. Naturally, conservative pundits will traipse along and dutifully applaud his “gravitas” and outstanding presidential “qualifications.” So much worthier than Sarah, don’t you know!

As for Newt Gingrich, he took time off from his busy schedule of cuddling up to Nancy Pelosi on global warming, to sneak onto the battlefield and lob grenades — at Sarah.

Hey, right back at ya, pal. Then there’s Mike Huckabee, who, when last heard from, was off somewhere exchanging diet tips with violent cons whose life sentences he had blithely commuted.

Tim Pawlenty, a ghostly presence at best, briefly materialized to murmur vague accusations against Sarah, and then faded into the woodwork once again. Wow! Leadership in action! All hail the mighty Tim!

You want leadership; you want steel spine; you want results? Helllooooo…What happened in Congress Wednesday? The House voted to repeal ObamaCare, 245 – 189, with the Republicans voting unanimously for repeal.

To whom do we owe this victory, more than anyone else, clearly and unequivocally? Sarah Palin. She showed us courage in real time, leading in every possible way: philosophically, strategically, tactically, and financially. Next to combat-hardened Sarah, every single Republican man is a trembling dwarf.

In case they haven’t noticed (they haven’t), we’re living through the most dangerously divided time in American history since the Civil War. As Abraham Lincoln once said,

“A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently, half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing or all the other.”

So it is in our time. Either we will quickly re-establish a government that fears the people, or the people will fear the government – permanently. Freedom is lethally hard to obtain, and frighteningly easy to lose. Right now, freedom is dying.

When America first met Sarah Palin, she praised her running mate, John McCain, with these words: “There’s only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you.” Well, there’s a new election starting now, and there’s not a single man in it who has ever bestirred himself to really fight for you.

There’s only a woman. The Republican establishment loathes Sarah Palin; the conservative commentariat needs smelling salts at the very mention of her name; and the ruling class took a blood oath to destroy not just her, but her family, too.

But none of that matters, because a ragtag army of freedom-loving Americans knows who’s got the guts of a real Commander-in-Chief. President Palin, we’ll see you on January 20, 2013
==================================================

http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/sarah_palin_combat_veteran.html#

canopfor on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Cause she can’t win. She just can’t carry the bulk of the independent vote necessary to win these days.

BacaDog on February 12, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Neither can Romney, as far as that goes. This “she can’t win blahblahblah” is and was nothing more than a fabrication meant to grease the skids for the unelectable Northeastern squish who’s going to get pummeled. Actually, I think it may be that Palin’s sitting this one out for the satisfaction of watching the feckless GOP implode.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Jailbreak on February 11, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Release Obama’s college records. Otherwise? They do not exist.

Key West Reader on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

She is a clown and her supporters are mostly clowns too.

Neat, huh?

Jailbreak on February 12, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Well I don’t mind spirited debate, but to go out of your way to call her supporters clowns, well that’s a might rude, hmmm?

I find Rep. Paul to also be a quitter (will not seek re-election), a fraud (Newsletters? What Newsletters?) and a clown (abandon Israel! Fortress America 2.0!)…but if you noticed, i don’t see a lot of bandwidth being spent on THAT huckster to be elected…Hell I’m trying to figure out how the hell he’s stayed around THIS long.

BlaxPac on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

She is not smart enough to debate Obama one on one. Thats why she chickened out.

liberal4life on February 12, 2012 at 4:54 PM

In 2008 O’bama won 70% of the high school dropout vote. No other candidate had ever gotten that percentage.

You must be so proud of him.

Del Dolemonte on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Math is hard ‘n’ s#!t.

Walter Sobchak on February 11, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Now that right there is neat, neat huh?

Bmore on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

LMAO – witnessed that one live.

instant “HotAir Classic”

Tim_CA on February 12, 2012 at 5:15 PM

TugboatPhil on February 12, 2012 at 5:03 PM
jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Sarah Palin would stand up to Putin and Red China unlike Obama who would bow before them. Palin is tough. There are few women that are tough like Sarah.

CoolChange80 on February 12, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Look at the way Sarah Palin is treated and look at the way Romney is treated. The biggest difference, if Sarah Palin were in the running was Romney couldn’t pull the crap on her he did on Gingrich. Other than that, the media would be telling the world what a terrible candidate she’d be, the GOP establishment would be having the same fits about her they are about Gingrich, and the rest of the MSM would be digging up dirt on her family.

bflat879 on February 12, 2012 at 5:16 PM

She is not smart enough to debate Obama one on one. Thats why she chickened out.

liberal4life on February 12, 2012 at 4:54 PM

You must go to the same leftie school with Jailbreak.

Dummies, one and all!

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:16 PM

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Opinions are a dime a dozen, yours are just dumber than most….

idesign on February 12, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Palin and Gingrich have at least one thing in common: they are both poison to independents. Some of this has been self-inflicted, most of it due to the blatant, vicious bias of the MSM. But the reality is that neither will win a nationwide office.

I do hope Gov Palin enjoys her life, her new financial security, and her national standing, because she deserves the best given how shabbily she was treated. I don’t think Palin is a brilliant thinker, but her ideology is correct, her political intuition is excellent, and she has Reagan’s gift of being underestimated. And I believe she will be an enormous asset to Romney or Santorum in the general – in specific states and markets. She would be a great Energy or Interior Secretary.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:16 PM

https://twitter.com/#!/MedvedSHOW/status/168801842120232960

NoNails on February 12, 2012 at 4:24 PM

I’m honestly shocked by that. No one is a bigger rino than Michael Medved. The dude makes Mike Castle look like Jim DeMint. Good on him.

Kataklysmic on February 12, 2012 at 4:27 PM

excellent!

wi farmgirl on February 12, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Awl, come on out Jailbait, I’ve got a ton of these quotes of yours. Come on.

Bmore on February 12, 2012 at 5:17 PM

liberal4life on February 12, 2012 at 4:54 PM,
She would kick Obama’s A– in a debate. I bet she would be great.

CoolChange80 on February 12, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Sarah isn’t running because she went right up to the line, looked over it, and lost her nerve. The notion that God is leading her on a different path is silly – God doesn’t play with His chosen ones. He tells them what the path is that they are to walk. If they don’t walk it, then God has alternatives to compensate.

She was on God’s path for her and she turned from it. It doesn’t matter whether the signs were wrong for her – she lost faith and without faith you can do nothing. Peter needed faith to walk on the water. The minute he looked down and “knew” what was happening was impossible, he began to sink.

Paul warned about family distracting one from the mission of God. Christ Himself, in Matthew, told of children turning against parents, and of a man’s enemies being the members of his own family.

enemies of what? The enemies of the mission God has for that person. My guess is she let her love for family over-ride her faith in God, to the point where she did not believe God would protect all of them during her mission.

It is what it is. She will not be president. People need to grow up. And your article and insights are excellent.

platypus on February 12, 2012 at 5:17 PM

EconomicNeocon on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

One error shouldn’t be a career breaker unless you kill someone…oh, wait….

Cindy Munford on February 12, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Could “Jailbreak” and “Liberal4Life” be any dumber?

Amjean on February 12, 2012 at 5:12 PM

JarJarBreak is a mitt supporter and L4L is a liberal troll , but I repeat myself…

the_nile on February 12, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Look at the way Sarah Palin is treated and look at the way Romney is treated. The biggest difference, if Sarah Palin were in the running was Romney couldn’t pull the crap on her he did on Gingrich. Other than that, the media would be telling the world what a terrible candidate she’d be, the GOP establishment would be having the same fits about her they are about Gingrich, and the rest of the MSM would be digging up dirt on her family.

bflat879 on February 12, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Probably, but unlike Gingrich, Palin would have the presence, charisma and following to overcome it. Palin would be Romney’s worst nightmare. He’d be history.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:18 PM

But she also helped them out. One of her biggest missteps was an unforced error. Perky Katie asked her what magazines she reads? The Governor whiffed.

We need to avoid glossing over that error. It was a defining moment for her political future. The young kids don’t pay attention to much, but that resonated with them and anyone on the fence at all.

EconomicNeocon on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Indeed. And she had several other unforced errors as well. The problem is, so has everyone else. Just ask the severely conservative Mitt “Peacetime” Romney.

The left is never going to give any of our people a fair shake. Allowing the MSM to dance on any conservative’s political grave is to simply give up and forever cede to them the ability to influence the least informed voters into delivering the election results that the left wants. We cannot do that.

Kataklysmic on February 12, 2012 at 5:19 PM

The Earth has shifted under the feet of both Left and Right since 2008, a thing that could jeopardize Romney’s 2012 chances. But with the organization, the money, the favors that Romney built up, Romney was bound and determined to be the 2012 nominee, all other considerations be damned. This included Romney’s actual general election chances.

Romney had it all built up to where he could take down and ruin all GOP challengers, Palin included. If Palin had run, Romney would have found a way to ruin her, even further alienating conservatives, and proceed to lose in the fall. Not only Romney, but 0bama has had years to prepare his counter-Palin strategy, were she even to make it past Romney. I figure Palin figured the best bet for Republicans in 2012 is to snipe from the sidelines and help take down Romney.

Sekhmet on February 12, 2012 at 5:19 PM

She is not smart enough to debate Obama one on one. Thats why she chickened out.

liberal4life on February 12, 2012 at 4:54 PM

She would shove a firecracker right up his leftist …. light it on fire and throw him through the roof.

And that is putting it mildly.

Key West Reader on February 12, 2012 at 5:19 PM

JarJarBreak is a mitt supporter and L4L is a liberal troll , but I repeat myself…

the_nile on February 12, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Both are the latter.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:19 PM

JarJarBreak is a mitt supporter and L4L is a liberal troll , but I repeat myself…

the_nile on February 12, 2012 at 5:18 PM

LOL…it’s awfully hard to distinguish the two, eh.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Press Release:
**************

The SarahCudian ReBellion Forces and Revolutionary Voter Guards,and the newly commissioned,Alaskan Moma Grizzly
Xtra-Sharp Claws Armor Divisions,and Northern Eagle Air
Squadrons,

are Standing Guard,awaiting Sarah’s Orders.

We stand at the ready.

The SarahCudian Northern Command.
(snark)

canopfor on February 12, 2012 at 5:20 PM

LOL…it’s awfully hard to distinguish the two, eh.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:20 PM

True, kind of, but they are both Obamabots.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I think jailbreak went to college yo…they’re smart and stuff

DHChron on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Q: Why isn’t Sarah Palin Running?

A: Because REAL America doesn’t get to pick who gets to be President (thankfully!).

A classic from the archives:

Couric: Have you ever been involved in any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

Palin: We have trade missions back and forth, we do. It’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

Sarah Palin – keeping America safe from the Russians for half a term.

KeninCT on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Key West Reader, I answered your question yesterday. Hope you found it.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Sarah Palin would stand up to Putin and Red China unlike Obama who would bow before them. Palin is tough. There are few women that are tough like Sarah.

CoolChange80 on February 12, 2012 at 5:15 PM

how do you stand up to China when they own you :-)…

jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Gov. Palin is the most successful project of destruction ever taken on by the media. I don’t believe she has any possible entrance back into the political arena unless she were to have a stunningly successful tenure as a cabinet member.

Cindy Munford on February 12, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I totally agree with the first sentence. However, should the voting public change, as J. E. Dyer puts it so well in this article, she may be more successful than anyone can imagine.

But the point to take away is that voter sentiment, as it relates to the meaning of different candidates and the basis of government, is changing.

And that, I think, is about half the reason why Sarah Palin didn’t throw her hat in the ring for this campaign cycle. Her evaluation of political conditions is remarkably accurate and prescient: she saw, long before most of the voters did, that the game of expectations itself needed to change, and that only we could do it.

kakypat on February 12, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Trolls work in shifts and in droves, the weasels.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Tarnsman on February 12, 2012 at 4:45 PM

great post …. think your right ….

conservative tarheel on February 12, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Romney had it all built up to where he could take down and ruin all GOP challengers, Palin included. If Palin had run, Romney would have found a way to ruin her, even further alienating conservatives, and proceed to lose in the fall. Not only Romney, but 0bama has had years to prepare his counter-Palin strategy, were she even to make it past Romney. I figure Palin figured the best bet for Republicans in 2012 is to snipe from the sidelines and help take down Romney.

Sekhmet on February 12, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Maybe, but you know, I think Palin may actually be thinking “You want ‘electability’? You got electability. Choke on it.” The ground is most DEFinitely going to be shifting after November. The squish contingent will either have to go deep underground, or there’ll be a Conservative Party.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:22 PM

In 2008 O’bama won 70% of the high school dropout vote. No other candidate had ever gotten that percentage.

You must be so proud of him.

Del Dolemonte on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

hahahahahahahahaha…HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

DHChron on February 12, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Both are the latter.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:19 PM

lol…..well the two posters are certainly indistinguishable.

Tim_CA on February 12, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Jailbreak has been demolished. Now KeninCT showed up.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Very interesting article J E Dyer..:)

PS..I don’t think her internal polling numbers showed that she could win..:)

Dire Straits on February 12, 2012 at 5:23 PM

In 2008 O’bama won 70% of the high school dropout vote. No other candidate had ever gotten that percentage.

You must be so proud of him.

Del Dolemonte on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Liberal dummies are the perfect kind, you “uneducated hick”.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:24 PM

I like how you think only GOP supporters matter in elections. Unless you live in a deep red district, it helps to have candidates who appeal to moderates…. their votes count too.

Go RBNY on February 12, 2012 at 4:24 PM

The GOP tried that the last time around. How did that work for them?

chewmeister on February 12, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Look at the Dummy in Chief!

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:24 PM

A classic from the archives:

Couric: Have you ever been involved in any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

Palin: We have trade missions back and forth, we do. It’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

Sarah Palin – keeping America safe from the Russians for half a term.

KeninCT on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

And with nary a PalinCare in sight. Good for her.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:25 PM

LOL…it’s awfully hard to distinguish the two, eh.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:20 PM

lol

having a hard time keeping up.

well said.

Tim_CA on February 12, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

I did, and I thank you for it. I wish there was a way for HA to communicate in a non-public forum.

Key West Reader on February 12, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Sarah’s not running. She had no intention of running for 2012. She enjoyed playing her cat and mouse game of will she/won’t she with the media, but she had no ground game. No offices, no advisors, no infrastructure, nothing. She played the game till she could no longer play, then announced she was basically screwing with everyone, including her supporters (me included). She sure got a lot of money out of people who not only hoped, but expected her to run.

She’s shown that she no longer has the fortitude. It’s all a game. I hate to admit, but liberals were kinda right about her. She takes her little bus trip, which seemed more an exercise in playing with the media, then gives up halfway through with a lame excuse, and never restarts it.

She deserves a lot of credit for winning back the house, and now her time is done. There are too few people who would take her serious as a candidate.

William Teach on February 12, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Sarah Palin, all hat, no cattle….

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Release Obama’s college records. Otherwise? They do not exist.

Key West Reader on February 12, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Key West Reader:Those records me thinks have been Conceptionaly
Immaculated,er,wait,its vicey versey,…ah screw
it,……the whole thing is scrotched!:)
(sarc).

canopfor on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I like how you think only GOP supporters matter in elections. Unless you live in a deep red district, it helps to have candidates who appeal to moderates…. their votes count too.

Go RBNY on February 12, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Worked so well with McCain..

American Dream 246 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

KeninCT on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Hey Sparky…

Palin would do a hell of job defending America, unlike jug-ears who bows to our enemies.

idesign on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Whoever said Palin couldn’t handle Obama in a debate is wrong. Palin mopped the floor with Biden.

And good friends, Romney will defeat Obama. He has not spent 6 years of his life to roll over in the general. He hates what Obama is doing to this country, and is ready to lead. He will govern as a conservative, because he know that only conservative economic policies will solve our problems. Moreover, if he and the GOP House and Senate do not enact a huge set of fiscal reforms, including entitlement reform, then they are all gone in 2014 and 2016. They have a window of 2 years, and they know it.

You dance with those who brung ya in this business. Romney will not disappoint conservatives.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

OK, KWR.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:27 PM

I wouldn’t say she mopped the floor with Biden…she did well.

DHChron on February 12, 2012 at 5:27 PM

he’s not running because as J.E. said, she’s waiting for us to change.
darwin on February 12, 2012 at 5:06 PM

this sounds almost christic in its profundity…

jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:27 PM

She deserves a lot of credit for winning back the house, and now her time is done. There are too few people who would take her serious as a candidate.

William Teach on February 12, 2012 at 5:25 PM

LOL…delusional. You don’t think Romney would notice if she were to hop in the race tomorrow?

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Romney will not disappoint conservatives.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I’m sorry, but I have a hard time believing that.

Bush was much better than Romney, and he’s greatly disappointed me.

kakypat on February 12, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Palin has a great record on ethics and crony capitalism, but where in her record as Governor, or even Mayor, did she shrink or limit the scope of Government? Just like Santorum, Romney and Gingrich she is all rhetoric.

fed-nad on February 12, 2012 at 5:28 PM

She couldn’t run for Governor of Alaska again — and you ask why she isn’t running for President. She has too much baggage, is too dumb, and is only out for the money.

lhuffman34 on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Sarah Palin, all hat, no cattle….

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

rightwingyahoo:Except for the dead Moose bone trails…….!
(sarc)

canopfor on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

She would be a great Energy or Interior Secretary.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:16 PM

There’s no way she would she put herself through Senate confirmation hearings. What they did to Robert Bork and Clarence Thomas would look mild by comparison to what they would do to her. The corrupt self-serving careerist low-lifes in both parties would call everybody who as an axe to grind to testify against her, from Joe McGuiness to Levi Johnston to Andrew Sullivan, and everything they said would be reported as indisputable facts.

Walter Sobchak on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

how do you stand up to China when they own you :-)…

jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Through trade negotiations. Even though they are carrying most of our debt, they need us for their economy to survive.

chewmeister on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Sarah Palin, all hat, no cattle….

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I’m not even a SP fan any more, but she has more cattle than your boy could ever wish for.

His inability to defend the First Amendment makes him unqualified to win anything.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

I, like most conservatives, hope for a smaller government, too.
But, I’m not sure I agree with:

But a critical mass of voters has recognized that Romney is the old consensus, and they are rejecting it. The CPAC vote was remarkable for Romney’s 38% — because it wasn’t bigger

I think you could say this only so long as you accept the “conventional wisdom” that Romney is/was the frontrunner.

The CPAC poll simply shows how divided the opinions of conservatives are, not that conservative thought is moving toward smaller government en masse (no matter how one wishes it were so).

After all, the business-as-usual approach – Karl Rove tells everyone how bad a candidate is, the media magnify his or her every quirk or mistake

I might be called an idiot for this (and have at it), but I see a focus on the CPAC poll results as the same business-as-usual. I don’t mean to be argumentative, and my mantra has and continues to be, “Anybody But Obama,” but interpreting the CPAC poll results as the start of some kind of sea change in conservative thought is hopeful, at best.

RedCrow on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Sarah Palin, all hat, no cattle….

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Send your complaints to governor.state.tx.us

darwin on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

PS..I don’t think her internal polling numbers showed that she could win..:)

Dire Straits on February 12, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Really?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/21/palin-trails-obama-by-just-5-points-in-new-poll/

idesign on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

I want some fried mittens on a stick with some honey bbq mittens dipping sauce. More mittens for me please!

DHChron on February 12, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Sarah Palin, all hat, no cattle….

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Well bless your insipid little heart.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 12, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Her jacuzzi analogy was superb. Her speech was as good as the one at the 2008 convention. I’m not crazy about her other speeches.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Who says she’s not running? I believe she IS running, in her own tactically brilliant way. I think she realized that if she got into the race last Sept. she would draw all the attention and it would give a free pass to all the pretend conservatives vying for the not-Romney position. By taking a pass she has enabled them to all be subjected to the same kind of gotcha “journalism” she was subjected to in ’08. The same vicious attacks from the left and even from each other. Almost every month now we have had one of these pretenders become the flavor of the month only to have them self destruct or be destroyed by the usual suspects.

Sarah has already been vetted more than any of them so why go through all this nasty nonsense again. Let those who would be king see if they can stand up to the heat in the kitchen. So far none has been able to for very long. Gingrich is now fork ready, Romney is increasingly being revealed as unwanted by the base and now the flavor of the month is Santorum but the skeletons are starting to come out of his closet as well. Her reception at CPAC was a strong indication of how the base feels about her – stronger than any other candidate or potential candidate.

She gave a speech to unite not divide, to fire up the troops with well aimed strikes against Obama. I love her line, “I’ve created more impersonators than Obama has created jobs.” I expect her to jump back in once Santorum has to fold his tent. They’re crying for her now to do that, this plea will only get stronger as time goes on till she thinks the time is right to make her move. Around the time Todd is finished with his Snow Machine race might be good. Meanwhile she is conserving her money. I don’t think she expects much help from the GOP establishment which is another reason for her to wait so she can conserve her resources. People think she has no organization but that’s not true. She has coordinators in all the important states and they’re not paid, we’re volunteers and donors. And where have you seen that lately?

Sarah/West 2012

shmendrick on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

And good friends, Romney will defeat Obama. He has not spent 6 years of his life to roll over in the general. He hates what Obama is doing to this country, and is ready to lead. He will govern as a conservative, because he know that only conservative economic policies will solve our problems. Moreover, if he and the GOP House and Senate do not enact a huge set of fiscal reforms, including entitlement reform, then they are all gone in 2014 and 2016. They have a window of 2 years, and they know it.

You dance with those who brung ya in this business. Romney will not disappoint conservatives.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

ATTENTION MITT SUPPORTERS: This is how you make the case for your candidate. Notice how matthew8787 didn’t trash any other conservatives or their supporters? Notice how he didn’t try to claim that Mitt is actually the one who conviced Reagan and Buckley to be conservative? He made the only case that can be made for Mitt: that he is smart, knows how much trouble the nation is in and has been awakened to the knowledge that only small government conservatism can get us back on track.

I’m not saying he is right, but it’s the best and only case to be made for Mitt.

Kataklysmic on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

That she was.

But she also helped them out. One of her biggest missteps was an unforced error. Perky Katie asked her what magazines she reads? The Governor whiffed.

We need to avoid glossing over that error. It was a defining moment for her political future. The young kids don’t pay attention to much, but that resonated with them and anyone on the fence at all.

EconomicNeocon on February 12, 2012 at 5:10 PM

I think you have completely missed the point of the article, and it’s thinking like yours that has us where we are. Sarah Palin whiffed an answer, who hasn’t? Please tell me. Bobby Jindal gave a boring speech, so he can never run for president. All this talk about the media destroying Sarah Palin, it wouldn’t have happened if we hadn’t let it. Same thing with Newt. I think he is still the best of the four remaining candidates to do what this country needs done, but he didn’t handle being slimed by Romney and the media perfectly so he’s dead in the water. The Romney vs. Santorum discussions devolve into religous wars, rather than what either of them will do to turn things around. We apparently deserve this.

Night Owl on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

She couldn’t run for Governor of Alaska again — and you ask why she isn’t running for President. She has too much baggage, is too dumb, and is only out for the money.

lhuffman34 on February 12, 2012 at 5:29 PM

How can someone so dumb make so much money?

chewmeister on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

how do you stand up to China when they own you :-)…

jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Why you punish the Catholics!

/BHO

Key West Reader on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

And good friends, Romney will defeat Obama. He has not spent 6 years of his life to roll over in the general. He hates what Obama is doing to this country, and is ready to lead.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

ROFL…sorry, but that’s just too funny. Romney will do absolutely nothing against Obama for fear of alienating his base, which is squishes and indies and a smattering of Dems. In true moderate fashion he’ll unload on those in his own party and then roll over for the Dems in the general, even while being mercilessly Alinskyed. He’s hopeless.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Well bless your insipid little heart.

annoyinglittletwerp on February 12, 2012 at 5:30 PM

LoL. The comments that rattle your cage are fairly predictable. The words that you use to growl are not.

platypus on February 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Glenn Rice didn’t confirm it. All he confirmed was that she was nice. He was never asked the question. Why do you suppose that McGinnis didn’t ask him about it directly? By not asking, he could write that it happened based on his anonymous source. He didn’t want to take a chance on Rice telling him it didn’t happen.

NoNails on February 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Hey Sparky…

Palin would do a hell of job defending America, unlike jug-ears who bows to our enemies.

idesign on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

“Jug-ears” is busy cleaning up the mess that the cowardly male cheerleader left behind.

Mission Accomplished, REAL American!

KeninCT on February 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Palin, Perry and Gingrich, what a joke. Every bit as bad as Huckabee, who half the moronic GOP was quite prepared to support as well.

The GOP does not deserve their freedom and prosperity any more than the left does, because they are equally stupid enough to be tricked out of it.

This country will not recover, if Democrats and the Huckabee/Palin/Perry/Bush wing of the GOP are the only choices.

rightwingyahooo on February 12, 2012 at 5:33 PM

And good friends, Romney will defeat Obama. He has not spent 6 years of his life to roll over in the general. He hates what Obama is doing to this country, and is ready to lead.

matthew8787 on February 12, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Meh, Romney doesn’t even fight Obama now over the First Amendment.F

For this alone he doesn’t deserve the nomination.

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:33 PM

this sounds almost christic in its profundity…

jimver on February 12, 2012 at 5:27 PM

What the hell is christic?

darwin on February 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Glenn Rice didn’t confirm it. All he confirmed was that she was nice. He was never asked the question. Why do you suppose that McGinnis didn’t ask him about it directly? By not asking, he could write that it happened based on his anonymous source. He didn’t want to take a chance on Rice telling him it didn’t happen.

NoNails on February 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Do you think Todd lets her watch the NBA on tv?

KeninCT on February 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM

ATTENTION MITT SUPPORTERS: This is how you make the case for your candidate. Notice how matthew8787 didn’t trash any other conservatives or their supporters?

Kataklysmic on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Yeah, but it’s so hilarious that only the Mittbots can take it seriously. That’s why they end up having to rely on ad hominem attacks.

ddrintn on February 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM

“Jug-ears” is busy cleaning up the mess that the cowardly male cheerleader left behind.

Mission Accomplished, REAL American!

KeninCT on February 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

You mean the democrat Congress.

darwin on February 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM

But if she does run, it will not be because she has changed, but because we have. There are political conditions in which she could run successfully, and conditions in which she couldn’t. The latter have constituted our political environment up until the last couple of months.

It means that the average voter will have to get up off their fat *ss, turn off the TV and critically think on their own, which may mean having to be somewhat self sufficient and cognizant of what’s going on around them and fight for what they believe in and fight back.

Hard to see it happening. It’s a nice thought, though.

kim roy on February 12, 2012 at 5:35 PM

How can someone so dumb make so much money?

chewmeister on February 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

wrong argument ;) Kobe Bryant anyone? how about lady gaga?

DHChron on February 12, 2012 at 5:35 PM

What the hell is christic?

darwin on February 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Nothing English

Schadenfreude on February 12, 2012 at 5:35 PM

But, as I said, I think that’s only about half the explanation. The other half is that Palin is an evangelical Christian. She believes God has a plan for her life, and that He gives her a certainty in her spirit about the big choices she has to make. I suspect she has had a peaceful certainty that joining the campaign as a candidate for 2012 was not something she should do. by J.E. Dyer

This. Any Christian strong in the faith, will wait for an answer. She waited and received her answer and it was not yes. Sarah Palin cannot be explained or understood outside of her Christian faith.

The other issues whether true or not would not have mattered as this was the deciding factor, none other.

Those that have a strong faith or know those that do, know this to be true. This is what I believe and have for a very long time.

bluefox on February 12, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Can we all just agree to ignore the troll? That guy is the epitome of the word.

CW on February 12, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5 8