Q-Poll: Obama rebounding in Virginia?

posted at 11:35 am on February 8, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

A new poll from Quinnipiac University holds some news which may give Republicans pause while mapping out their fall strategy and it comes from Virginia. For the first time in this series for the 2012 election, President Barack Obama has pulled back into the lead at or outside the margin of error over all four of the remaining GOP contenders, including Mitt Romney, who had been leading Obama in the Old Dominion State up until now. The Hill breaks it down.

A new poll shows President Obama pulling ahead of Mitt Romney in the key state of Virginia.

Obama wins the support of 47 percent of registered voters surveyed to Romney’s 43 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The survey marks a turnaround for the president. A December 21 poll by Quinnipiac showed Romney edging Obama 44 percent to 42 percent.

“For the first time since Quinnipiac University began polling Virginia voters on the race, President Barack Obama holds a razor-thin lead over Gov. Mitt Romney,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Assistant Director Peter A. Brown in a release.

In addition to Romney, Obama leads Ron Paul 47-40, Santorum 49-41 and Newt by 51-37.

Until Obama carried the state in 2008, Virginia had been fairly solid in the pocket of the GOP for a while, with George W. Bush carrying the vote by significant margins in both 2000 and 2004, and even Bob Dole squeezing out a win over Bill Clinton in 96. (Significant still since Ross Perot took over six percent of the vote that year.) If any of Obama’s surprise 2008 wins are going to be flipped back to the Red column this year, Virginia was certainly a top contender.

Theories are already being floated as to what is driving the change, focusing largely on an increasing voter perception that the economy is beginning to turn around and improve. Two factors seem to be driving the most notable shifts giving Obama an edge, including an increase in support from independents, leading Romney there by a 45-41 margin. But the most worrisome factor, as Taegan Goddard notes, is that Obama is winning the battle with women voters over Mitt by a staggering 52-40.

As usual, though, the race has to ripen considerably more before these numbers can be seen as solid. The poll was done before Santorum’s Tuesday night, three state sweep, and his name recognition in Virginia is still the lowest of the four possible nominees.(In this poll, fully 1/3 of Virginia voters don’t know enough about Santorum to make up their minds.) He also hasn’t received the same level of vetting as the other three yet, so Virginians will have plenty of time to learn more and make up their minds if he winds up becoming the main non-Mitt candidate.

The polling for the head to head match-ups sampled 1,544 registered voters (not likely) which is not ideal, but still better than a survey of all adults, and Quinnipiac has developed a fairly solid reputation. The D/R/I breakdown has not yet been provided. The related primary poll (which shows Romney crushing Ron Paul 68-19 with neither Newt nor Rick Santorum on the ballot) was among 546 likely Republican voters.


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Each state will be the same…Mitt cannot hold onto any lead, unless he outspends the opponent by 3 or 4 times…and that ain’t go’in happen agin Obama…

right2bright on February 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

He’s rebounding because his jump-shot sucks.

Flange on February 8, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Premature ejaculation

Schadenfreude on February 8, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Come on Virginia, lets not let bho win your state! Thank you.
L

letget on February 8, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Gee, all these “Obama comeback!” stories in the same week, one after another, right after an allegedly positive employment report.

Coordinated? Do ya think so?

Missy on February 8, 2012 at 11:39 AM

…add that, Mitt is allowing the dems to control the debate on economics, and once the people are convinced it has turned around, they won’t be convinced the opposite.
Mitt’s personal attacks, his focus on the candidates, and not Obama is a tragic mistake, but a typical selfish one.

right2bright on February 8, 2012 at 11:39 AM

If he is rebounding, how about “Ole Dumbinion”…

hillsoftx on February 8, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Be more interesting to see how many of those polled were government employees…

BigWyo on February 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Drugereport will dispose of Santorum next week. Romney’s numbers should come up

liberal4life on February 8, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I live in liberal Northern Virginia. I don’t buy these results as meaningful in the least. There is no great excitement for four more years of the filthy jug-eared traitor, even here.

Plus this is only February. How can any of these polls be meaningful?

Happy Nomad on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I fear none of the Republican candidates are going to defeat this POS. The best possibilities to oust Obama never joined the race. Although, if Mitt is the nominee, who would help him more, Santorum or Rubio?

bopbottle on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

The polling for the head to head match-ups sampled 1,544 registered voters (not likely) which is not ideal, but still better than a survey of all adults, and Quinnipiac has developed a fairly solid reputation. The D/R/I breakdown has not yet been provided.

Until they provide a breakdown of the sample, they can take their poll and shove it. Nearly every one of them is oversampling Dems to an almost laughable degree.

Doughboy on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

It was bound to happen. The retarded independents (but then I repeat myself) are going to screw the rest of us and reelect Barry the Golfing Clown. It matters not to these half-wits that Barry is a SCOAMF. God help us.

WarEagle01 on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Stop hiring new federal workers that live and work in the dc government, because they will only vote to keep their jobs!

150,000 new Obama workers in three years.Hiring freeze NOW!

Fleuries on February 8, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Heart-ache.

KeninCT on February 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Meanwhile, Obama is up to 61% on InTrade. He was at or around 50% since the “bin laden bump” petered out.

Armin Tamzarian on February 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

There’s a poll for every occasion. Obama needs a comeback and BOOM! there it is on HA’s pages. The sound and the fury signifying nothing.

BetseyRoss on February 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

If he is rebounding, how about “Ole Dumbinion”…

hillsoftx on February 8, 2012 at 11:40 AM

That’s uncalled for. My guess is the poll had a high percentage of northern VA residents, many of whom are government employees.

zoyclem on February 8, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Since when can he rebound….I only thought he could pivot?

moves.

ted c on February 8, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Most of the results you are seeing, which is referred to as Weakening of Mitt Romney has to do with the MSM theme that he and Warren Buffet have paid less in taxes than Warren Buffets secretary, and class warfare ideas, like Santorum saying Romney doesn’t care about the poor. Gingrich and Santorum can fix that problem now, by stopping that self serving language. John Kerry ran for office, Pelosi too, and we don’t hear that They don’t pay enough taxes.

Fleuries on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

People’s Republic of Northern Virginia. That is all.

davek70 on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

With all due respect, it’s ridiculous that we’re even looking at any polling results for the general election at this point. The Republican field is hardly settled, and we need to let that play out before doing any hypothetical match-ups. Just my thoughts.

jfs756 on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

I fear none of the Republican candidates are going to defeat this POS. The best possibilities to oust Obama never joined the race. Although, if Mitt is the nominee, who would help him more, Santorum or Rubio?

bopbottle on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

There’s no way Rubio joins Romney’s ticket. He doesn’t need it, he’s already elevated enough to run for president and has stated repeatedly that he will not be on the ticket. Romney needs to pick Ryan. Romney is good at defending positions that are given to him, the Ryan plan is perfect for that. Plus, it could help Romney in the Midwest. If Romney wins Wisconsin and Michigan, the race is most likely over.

That being said, I’m beginning to think our only chance is to have a brokered convention.

cpaulus on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Jim Messina, President Barack Obama’s campaign manager, assured a group of Democratic donors from the financial services industry that Obama won’t demonize Wall Street

These days that sounds like a quid pro quo.

J_Crater on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

“The D/R/I breakdown has not yet been provided.”

And I’d bet money it won’t ever be provided, just like the (com)Post/ABC poll which stated they would no longer show internals. The poll internals would show insane amounts of lefty oversampling- anything to make the stuttering chump in the oval office look good.

Fake polls, to go with the phony named faux intellectual pretending to be a president.

You couldn’t be more on target, Missy.

GrassMudHorsey on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Meanwhile, Obama is up to 61% on InTrade. He was at or around 50% since the “bin laden bump” petered out.

Armin Tamzarian on February 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

InTrade is worthless. Obviously Obama is up today because the alleged GOP frontrunner got his ass handed to him last night. So with the Republican primary up in the air, of course that’s gonna give the incumbent a boost. Once the Republicans have their nominee, that’s when the polls will start to actually mean something.

Doughboy on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Obama will never carry my beloved Virginia next November. Never.

BacaDog on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

there’s always 2016.

sesquipedalian on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Political irony here. Virginia is doing well because of it’s conservative, Republican governor. Northern VA is doing better because it’s Republican county people are chasing the illegals into Maryland, thus they’re able to fill pot holes and meet school budgets (Maryland’s wealthiest county can’t do either of those things).

And there are a LOT of limosine liberals in Northern VA…that cannot be overstated. And a LOT of those liberals get lotsa bucks from the federal government. However, when Obama starts tearing apart the Pentagon….

I do believe this is also an effect of Romney depressing ALL enthusiasm in the Republican Party. I think Dick Morris is absolutely correct: This is a direct reflection on Romney’s slash and burn campaign and his looking more and more like a teleprompter candidate who can’t be trusted in interviews.

Portia46 on February 8, 2012 at 11:49 AM

It is frightening to think that there is a constant 40+% of people that approve of JugEars!
(Ron Paul does better against JugEars in Virginia than Newt?..Wow)

KOOLAID2 on February 8, 2012 at 11:51 AM

there’s always 2016.

sesquipedalian on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

There won’t be a 2016 if Obama has four more years.

darwin on February 8, 2012 at 11:53 AM

If Obama wins Virginia, Obama wins the election.

It’s that simple.

If the GOP can’t even win a state like VA, they have no shot.

Abby Adams on February 8, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Unfortunately things are only going to get better for Obama. The economy will improve despite him, people have pretty much forgotten about Obamacare, the under-reported scandals will be completely forgotten, and the Republican candidates suck.

neuquenguy on February 8, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Okay, everyone, it’s high time for the GOP primary to come to a close. Stop pining for a non-Romney. None of them has a prayer. Too many conservatives have suffered this delusion that what America wants right now is a solid conservative. No poll supports this, only fantasies. America wants a competent centrist, and offering that would serve as a stark contrast to the incumbent, and the only contrast Americans care to see. You have to face that fact that you really only have two choices this year, Romney or Obama, and it otherwise makes no difference who the GOP nominee is. The sooner you accept that you only have two choices, the more likely you are to at least have those two, rather than ceding reelection to Obama outright.

EricW on February 8, 2012 at 11:57 AM

There won’t be a 2016 if Obama has four more years.

darwin on February 8, 2012 at 11:53 AM

we can’t just skip to 2017.

sesquipedalian on February 8, 2012 at 11:57 AM

With all due respect, it’s ridiculous that we’re even looking at any polling results for the general election at this point. The Republican field is hardly settled, and we need to let that play out before doing any hypothetical match-ups. Just my thoughts.

jfs756 on February 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Your thoughts are alot of our thoughts. These polls drive me nuts! What poll said Rick Santy would sweep 3 states in one night? What poll said silly Santy would take Iowa?

KOOLAID2 on February 8, 2012 at 11:58 AM

And now the cracks in the electability myth are really beginning to show. Romney’s relentless attacks on the party base are beginning to cause major damage to our prospects, first with the enthusiasm gap and now this.

This SHOULD be a wake-up call to the GOP, but it won’t be. Expect to see more polls in the coming weeks showing Obama gradually pulling into the lead in other swing states such as OH and PA.

Doomberg on February 8, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Depressing. Right now I’m Thinking of voting for SMOD.Until this race is “settled” we are going to get polls like this.Just a thought on Romney and his”electability”… Who left of this lot are closer to beating Obama in the polls? I thought so…

sandee on February 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Virgina is mostly rural, but the northern part, adjacent to DC, is densly popoulated. My county, Fairfax has about eight hundred thousand residents. Loudon, which is adjacent of Fairfax had the highest percentage growth of any large county in the country at least once in the last few years. A large percentage of the residents of this area work directly for the government or for government contractors. Democrats support big government, in case you haven’t noticed.

burt on February 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

If this poll is correct, the results only reflect our state’s citizens disgust with the ongoing negativeness of the primary process. Virginia will rally behind whoever the eventual nominee is and will go Republican in the general election. All of that talk years ago about Virginia going purple when Tim Kaine was elected governor was incorrect. Tim Kaine was only elected because the VA GOP nominated an extremely weak candidate. Granted, northern VA is heavily blue, but the state will be red in November.

rwisemanr on February 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

InTrade is worthless. Obviously Obama is up today because the alleged GOP frontrunner got his ass handed to him last night. So with the Republican primary up in the air, of course that’s gonna give the incumbent a boost. Once the Republicans have their nominee, that’s when the polls will start to actually mean something.

Doughboy on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Just to be clear, the difference between his numbers before Santorum’s triple-win and after isn’t that big. His current 61% isn’t the result of a sudden spike. He’s been steadily climbing for weeks now. Right after Florida, he was at 57 or 58.

Armin Tamzarian on February 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

“The D/R/I breakdown has not yet been provided”

I’LL PASS

Eph on February 8, 2012 at 12:01 PM

You’re all worrying over nothing. After Sweet Meteor of Death officially enters the race, casting votes will be the furthest thing from anyone’s mind.

#SMOD2012 Baby!!!!!!!!!

Jazz Shaw on February 8, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Where did all these libtards locusts come from?

lobotmyforlife, KendollinCT, sesqipedalain just a few Daily Kos locusts that have invaded this site.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 8, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Obama is winning the battle with women voters over Mitt by a staggering 52-40.

Just begs for a Blazing Saddles reference doesn’t it?

Tim Zank on February 8, 2012 at 12:04 PM

there’s always 2016.

sesquipedalian on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Go shoot yourself in the face.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 8, 2012 at 12:05 PM

You’re all worrying over nothing. After Sweet Meteor of Death officially enters the race, casting votes will be the furthest thing from anyone’s mind.

#SMOD2012 Baby!!!!!!!!!

Jazz Shaw on February 8, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Nobody is buying it. We all know you’re a Mittens shill.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 8, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Just to be clear, the difference between his numbers before Santorum’s triple-win and after isn’t that big. His current 61% isn’t the result of a sudden spike. He’s been steadily climbing for weeks now. Right after Florida, he was at 57 or 58.

Armin Tamzarian on February 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

He’s climbing for a variety of reasons. The economy’s alleged improvement, his SOTU address, the Republican candidates tearing each other apart, and Mittens’ gaffes for starters. But once the primary is over and the voters are presented with a clear choice, the polls will look a lot more realistic at that point. Remember, Virginia went heavily for the GOP in November 2009 when Bob McDonnell won. Don’t tell me that in just over 2 years the people in that state have suddenly warmed up to Obama and the Democrats.

Doughboy on February 8, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Go shoot yourself in the face.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 8, 2012 at 12:05 PM

you’re cute when you’re upset.

sesquipedalian on February 8, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Get back to me with a poll after the Republicans have settled on a candidate. The real race hasn’t even begun yet.

RebeccaH on February 8, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Drugereport will dispose of Santorum next week. Romney’s numbers should come up

liberal4life on February 8, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Santorum’s name isn’t spelled G-I-N-G-R-I-C-H, so I wouldn’t hold my breath.

fiatboomer on February 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Yeah…I don’t think so. In a state that just recently elected Republicans to all senior offices, and gained seats in the State Senate to make a even split, and has Republicans in control of the State House, I don’t see Obama winning here. Also, as a government worker from No VA (sort of) I will never vote for Obama regardless of the Republican nominee and the vast majority of active duty, government civilians and civilian contractors that I work with seem to feel the same way.

SoonerMarine on February 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Do the voters in this poor sick Republic have any idea what they are doing? I think most of them would sell their souls for much less than 30 pieces of silver.

rplat on February 8, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Fairfax County, Federal employees, I suspect.

Bmore on February 8, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Against Romney and Ron Paul, what a surprise! The Virginia republican party is a disaster anyway. And Bob McDonnell is a disappointment for allowing the state primary to be fixed for his boy, Romney. It’s an utter disgrace! It’s bad enough that the idiots we have here in the District of Columbia that are our republican party have disqualified Rick Santorum here so I have to vote for Gingrich to stop Romney. But in Virginia, Mark Levin is furious that his only choice is to vote for Romney in order to stop Paul?!? This is a farce and it’s no wonder Obama is ahead in Virginia.

mozalf on February 8, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Stop hiring new federal workers that live and work in the dc government, because they will only vote to keep their jobs!

150,000 new Obama workers in three years.Hiring freeze NOW!

Fleuries on February 8, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Exactly. All those damn leaches are destroying Virginia.

Daemonocracy on February 8, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The D/R/I breakdown has not yet been provided

and again, while I don’t doubt Romney and Obama are about even, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this poll oversampled Dems.

fiatboomer on February 8, 2012 at 12:25 PM

look back at Reagan’s 1980 win, same kind of fluff was being said about Jimmy Carter getting another 4 years.

47% of Virginians have either suspended their disbelief or they’re gay.

kirkill on February 8, 2012 at 12:25 PM

As usual, though, the race has to ripen considerably more before these numbers can be seen as solid. The poll was done before Santorum’s Tuesday night, three state sweep, and his name recognition in Virginia is still the lowest of the four possible nominees.(In this poll, fully 1/3 of Virginia voters don’t know enough about Santorum to make up their minds.) He also hasn’t received the same level of vetting as the other three yet, so Virginians will have plenty of time to learn more and make up their minds if he winds up becoming the main non-Mitt candidate.

If you think Virginias will fall in love with Santorum, you’re sadly mistaken.

Vyce on February 8, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Hmmmm…Rick is pulling up in the polls. And look where Mittens is….Mitt is losing his aura and it’s moving to Santorum.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:28 PM

As it has been difficult for the base to get excited if Romney is the nominee, but I think if Newt or even better Rick is the nominee, I think the base would be more apt to come out and support them.

ConservativePartyNow on February 8, 2012 at 12:31 PM

If you think Virginias will fall in love with Santorum, you’re sadly mistaken.

Vyce on February 8, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Bob McDonnell won Fairfax and Loudon Counties with pretty much the same stance on social issues as Santorum. I agree it will be tough for him, but if Santorum runs a disciplined campaign, he can do well. He’s not going to win California or New York, but he could definitely win Virginia. And I say this as an Alexandria native who knows what a left-wing wasteland the DC area is. I also know the rest of the Commonweath isn’t.

fiatboomer on February 8, 2012 at 12:33 PM

No way Obama takes VA this time around. But I’m not so sure for Allen’s chances. His campaign so far is pretty lackluster. So much for my Gov’s smooching around Romney as a VP hopeful, too!

Bob in VA on February 8, 2012 at 12:34 PM

In the general election, Rasmussen is showing Santorum beating out Obama 45 to 44 as of 2/3/12…this is the number to keep an eye on.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Jobs wise, the situation especially in Northern Virginia could not be better. Not just Govt but private/nonprofit businesses are hiring big time for the past 6 months. And I think the Defense and the military play a big part as well in other parts of Virginia. I don’t think Obama will win the presidential election as of now, but I could easily see the other republican candidates losing in the general election, unless Romney becomes very personable.

The Governor has also done a good job of balancing the state budget and has worked efficiently.

Republicans control the State house which ironically makes it more likely Obama will win the presidential election. Virginia usually likes to balance its tickets; if the majority of its voters vote for Republicans down ticket, they are usually more likely to vote for a Democratic President.

nyx on February 8, 2012 at 12:35 PM

The breakdown is linked on the q-poll page.

R/D/I/O

Unweighted: 483/450/474/137

Weighted; 29%/31%/30%/10%

http://tinyurl.com/7xu8roc

lymond on February 8, 2012 at 12:36 PM

mozalf on February 8, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Can they use write-in ballots in the VA primary? Not a great solution, I know.

Eren on February 8, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Go Team Santorum!!!

multiuseless on February 8, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Can they use write-in ballots in the VA primary? Not a great solution, I know.

Eren on February 8, 2012 at 12:37 PM

According to Mark Levin, any write-ins are disqualified in Virginia (they got it covered). Not sure about here in D.C., though. I gotta find out (hope, hope!).

mozalf on February 8, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Virginia usually likes to balance its tickets; if the majority of its voters vote for Republicans down ticket, they are usually more likely to vote for a Democratic President.

nyx on February 8, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Not true. The last time VA voted for a Dem (before Bam) was 1964. And at that time, VA’s Governor, Lt. Gov, and both Senators were all Dems.

fiatboomer on February 8, 2012 at 12:43 PM

I am also a resident of Northern Virginia, and I can assure everyone that the people I speak to say they wouldn’t vote for Obama no matter who he runs against. Yes, there are a lot of gov.’t employees here, but they all buy groceries, gas, energy, homes, etc., and are feeling the pinch just like everyone else. The ones who will vote for him are the very rich, and yes, there are a lot of those in Northern Va., but the rest of the state will, hopefully, cancel out their votes.

jintrabar on February 8, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Virginia is going for Obama because the size of government has swelled so large that everyone that works in DC has to live in Virginia. It is the northern section of Virginia. IMHO.

bbordwell on February 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Meh…dead cat bounce.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Perhaps, but I refuse to believe that anyone is stupid enough to vote for this guy a second time. They’ll talk. They’ll say how great he is…but then, of course, they voted for him. What do you expect them to say, “No, I admit it. I was an idiot to vote for the guy.” So they’ll say how great he is and come November, they’ll either vote for the other guy or not at all.

So good luck, Barry, but I think your term is up. And not soon enough.

PorchDawg on February 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Not sure about here in D.C., though. I gotta find out (hope, hope!).

mozalf on February 8, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Republican primary voting in the District of Columbia is as meaningless as it gets. Even more so than Republican primaries in Maryland and that takes some doing!

As for Virginia, we get to choose between Governor Electable and Dr. Nutjob. I suspect that if there were a write-in provision it would go for Santorum right now, not Speaker Happy Pants.

Happy Nomad on February 8, 2012 at 12:51 PM

It is the northern section of Virginia. IMHO.

bbordwell on February 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Sorry, I live in the People’s Republic of Arlington and I’m not seeing this push for Obama because the size of government grew nonsense that keeps showing up as a theme. May I remind you that federal employees are going into year two without a pay raise thanks to Congress deciding to use federal employees as a scapegoat for all their fiscal irresponsibility?

Happy Nomad on February 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I fear none of the Republican candidates are going to defeat this POS. The best possibilities to oust Obama never joined the race. Although, if Mitt is the nominee, who would help him more, Santorum or Rubio?

bopbottle on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Don’t think for a moment that Santorum will back Romney. Santorum hates Romney and constantly derides him as the white version of Obama.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Here’s why: they took a sample that leaned GOP and made it lean Dem.

REGISTERED VOTERS
Wgtd% UnWgtdN
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 29% 483
Democrat 31 450
Independent 30 474
Other/DK/NA 10 137

Those are 2008 numbers, not 2010 or 2012. Wishful thinking!

TallDave on February 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Don’t think for a moment that Santorum will back Romney. Santorum hates Romney and constantly derides him as the white version of Obama.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Complete BS

Priscilla on February 8, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Santorum hates Romney and constantly derides him as the white version of Obama.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM

The inconvenient truth for many is that Santorum doesn’t just deride Romney as identical to Obama. He happens to be making a compelling case that it is true.

Happy Nomad on February 8, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Meanwhile, Obama is up to 61% on InTrade. He was at or around 50% since the “bin laden bump” petered out.

Armin Tamzarian on February 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

InTrade is worthless. Obviously Obama is up today because the alleged GOP frontrunner got his ass handed to him last night. So with the Republican primary up in the air, of course that’s gonna give the incumbent a boost. Once the Republicans have their nominee, that’s when the polls will start to actually mean something.

Doughboy on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

He was at 60% before last night’s results.

He was at 50% in December. The more Romney wins, the more electable Obama becomes.

Deal with it.

angryed on February 8, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Obama will never carry my beloved Virginia next November. Never.

BacaDog on February 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Pretty sure everyone thought that in 2008 too.

REGISTERED VOTERS
Wgtd% UnWgtdN
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 29% 483
Democrat 31 450
Independent 30 474
Other/DK/NA 10 137

Those are 2008 numbers, not 2010 or 2012. Wishful thinking!

TallDave on February 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

See the headlines post about the falling enthusiasm amongst GOP voters. This primary is killing Republicans’ excitement about November. Amazingly is that you can’t really blame the MSM for this one. You’re doing it to yourselves.

libfreeordie on February 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM

The more Romney wins, the more electable Obama becomes.
Deal with it.
angryed on February 8, 2012 at 1:12 PM

So then are Obama’s numbers going down because Romney lost 3 last night????

albill on February 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

I think many on here are missing the important number, and that is Obama’s failure to reach 50%. If he is under 50% he will lose as the undecideds always break big for the challenger, particularly in presidetial races. Also, you can take 3-4 points off Obama because this was a poll of “Adults” and not likely voters. He is probably in the 45% range-not good.

Ta111 on February 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

See the headlines post about the falling enthusiasm amongst GOP voters. This primary is killing Republicans’ excitement about November. Amazingly is that you can’t really blame the MSM for this one. You’re doing it to yourselves.

libfreeordie on February 8, 2012 at 1:16 PM

That’s party affiliation, not enthusiasm. Not at all the same thing.

Chuck Schick on February 8, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Here’s why: they took a sample that leaned GOP and made it lean Dem.

REGISTERED VOTERS
Wgtd% UnWgtdN
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 29% 483
Democrat 31 450
Independent 30 474
Other/DK/NA 10 137

TallDave on February 8, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Dave, not to dispute your reportage, but how can there be 29% (R) with 483 and 31% (D) with 450?

The War Planner on February 8, 2012 at 1:24 PM

I fear none of the Republican candidates are going to defeat this POS. The best possibilities to oust Obama never joined the race. Although, if Mitt is the nominee, who would help him more, Santorum or Rubio?

bopbottle on February 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Don’t think for a moment that Santorum will back Romney. Santorum hates Romney and constantly derides him as the white version of Obama.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Complete BS

Priscilla on February 8, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Pricilla, this was just my answer to bopbottle’s question. Actually, the question is will Romney back Santorum when Santorum wins the nomination?

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Go shoot yourself in the face.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 8, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Not to worry. She/he and hers/his will be the deserving fools.

Kimberlina on February 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Obama is a Democrat . . .Romney is Democrat . . .what’s the difference?

Pragmatic on February 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Go shoot yourself in the face.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 8, 2012 at 12:05 PM

I’d love to squeeze your cute little fluffy cheeks, you little dickins, you.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 1:30 PM

This is what happens when the only two candidates on the primary ballot are Mitt Romney & Ron Paul.

MissMagnolia on February 8, 2012 at 1:33 PM

For Obama to win Virginia again, it will have to be a really bad year for Republicans, and I’m talking 2008 bad. I don’t see it happening this year.

DRayRaven on February 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

lfod — Shrug, that often happens in the primary. Obama is still down double digits in the passion index, and has been ever since Obamacare — and 80% of undecideds disapprove of him. This is still a 2010 nation, not 2008.

TWP — One is weighted, the other is unweighted.

TallDave on February 8, 2012 at 1:41 PM

For Obama to win Virginia again, it will have to be a really bad year for Republicans, and I’m talking 2008 bad. I don’t see it happening this year.

DRayRaven on February 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Gird your loins . . . with the establishment pushing Romney, it’s already a bad year!

Pragmatic on February 8, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Actually, the question is will Romney back Santorum when Santorum wins the nomination?

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Of course he will. Romney is nothing if not a team player. He campaigned relentlessly for McCain, after losing the nomination. He endorsed Rubio very early in the Florida GOP primary, before Crist was out and long before most other so-called conservative politicians. He has never, unlike Paul implied that he would run as an independent, nor has he, like Gingrich, failed to congratulate his fellow candidates when they were victorious.

I think some people here need to get a grip. Politics is rough business, but good politicians know how to separate the personal from the political, and pull together in order to win.

Priscilla on February 8, 2012 at 1:44 PM

The polling for the head to head match-ups sampled 1,544 registered voters (not likely) which is not ideal, but still better than a survey of all adults, and Quinnipiac has developed a fairly solid reputation. The D/R/I breakdown has not yet been provided. The related primary poll (which shows Romney crushing Ron Paul 68-19 with neither Newt nor Rick Santorum on the ballot) was among 546 likely Republican voters.

The cross tabs will be important.

nukemhill on February 8, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Actually, the question is will Romney back Santorum when Santorum wins the nomination?

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 1:26 PM
Of course he will. Romney is nothing if not a team player. He campaigned relentlessly for McCain, after losing the nomination. He endorsed Rubio very early in the Florida GOP primary, before Crist was out and long before most other so-called conservative politicians. He has never, unlike Paul implied that he would run as an independent, nor has he, like Gingrich, failed to congratulate his fellow candidates when they were victorious.

I think some people here need to get a grip. Politics is rough business, but good politicians know how to separate the personal from the political, and pull together in order to win.

Priscilla on February 8, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Why doesn’t Romeny run as a Democrat (particularly, since he is a Democrat)? He might have a much better chance of beating Obama!

Pragmatic on February 8, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I hate to say this, and I know I’m gonna catch a lot of heat for this this, but if Mitt Romney is the GOP’s nominee, I am voting for BHO.

Two Reasons:

1) If it’s Romney, then the GOP deserves to lose and lose bad. It’s important for them to get the message that we as conservatives won’t sit back and eat whatever CRAP they decide to feed us. No more of “oh it’s just his time.” No More! If they don’t figure it out this cycle, then they’ll never get it.

So why vote Obama instead of simply sitting this one out? Well…

2) As an American, I can’t just stay home and not vote. To me, that is just simply offensive to the countless American soldiers who gave their all to preserve my right to vote. So I have to vote. The reason I would vote for BHO is…well…see Reason #1.

Please don’t shoot me.

MoreTeaPlease on February 8, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Can anyone explain to me how, with proportional assignment of delegates past Super Tuesday Romney is supposed to get to 1,144?

Romney isn’t going to win: Alaska, Wyomoing, North Carolina, Idaho, Kansas, West Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Texas, Indiana, Montana, South Dakota, Georiga, Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi.

That leaves him: Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, California, Guam, Illinois, New Jersey, American Samoa, Utah, Vermont, Hawaii, DC, Virginia, Puerto Rico, Wisconsin, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, Oregon, Delaware, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Virgin Islands.

If he got 100% of the delegates there he’s still short by 40 delegates and that’s without him losing a chunk from the proportional allotment on Super Tuesday.

cpaulus on February 8, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Why doesn’t Romeny run as a Democrat (particularly, since he is a Democrat)? He might have a much better chance of beating Obama!

Pragmatic on February 8, 2012 at 1:49 PM

You are so …..well…..um…..pragmatic.

timberline on February 8, 2012 at 1:56 PM

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