Polar ice not melting as fast as you were told

posted at 7:20 pm on February 8, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

If you already put your beachfront property up for sale in anticipation of it being underwater soon due to global warming, you may want to hold off on taking bids. Why? Some more odd bits of climate data are acting in a pesky fashion and refusing to go along with the settled science.

Nearly 230 billion tons of ice is melting into the ocean from glaciers, ice caps, and mountaintops annually—which is actually less than previous estimates, according to new research by scientists at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

If the amount of ice lost between 2003 and 2010 covered the United States, the whole country would be under one-and-a-half feet of water, or it’d fill Lake Erie eight times, researchers say. Ocean levels worldwide are rising about six tenths of an inch per year, according to researcher John Wahr.

The team used data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite, which was launched as a joint project between NASA and Germany in 2002. The GRACE satellite measures gravity, which is related to mass, in 20 distinct regions worldwide. Wahr says that gives the team more accurate estimates, because previous teams had to measure ice loss at “a few easily accessible glaciers” and then extrapolate it to the 200,000 glaciers worldwide.

“It’s tough to get an estimate [with previous methods],” he says.

You know, a lot of things were “tough to get an estimate” on in science in every single generation. Then somebody comes along and figures out a way to do it a little better. And if you’re lucky, you get collectively smarter and work on the next advancement. After a sufficient period of time, you just might begin to get a handle on what’s actually happening. But today we might find somebody else saying exactly the opposite thing at the same time. Wait! WE DID!

Glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica are losing nearly 150 billion tons of ice each year, contributing to an annual 0.4 millimeter rise in sea levels globally, according to a study done by the University of Colorado at Boulder.

“The earth is losing an incredible amount of ice to the oceans annually, and these new results will help us answer important questions in terms of both sea-rise and how the planet’s cold regions are responding to global change,” CU-Boulder physics professor John Wahr, who led the study published in the journal Nature, said in a statement.

I’ve said it too many times before to go into the whole thing again. I’m not saying that I know exactly what the climate is going to do in 1,000 years or 100 years or 100 days. All I’m saying is that the planetary climate system is far more complex than we can currently model with the available data and computer power. And the people who say that they DO know what’s going to happen tend to annoy me, because we’re just not that smart yet. If we already knew for sure, there wouldn’t be a debate.

When you get to the point where you can tell me on Monday whether or not I’ll need my umbrella when I go shopping on Friday and get it right more than 70% of the time, maybe we can talk about what’s going to happen in 200 years. Until then, let’s just try to learn more and get better at the actual science without turning everything into politics, OK? Thanks.


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Looks very cold.

Bmore on February 8, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I got the heater cranked up over here.

Roymunson on February 8, 2012 at 7:22 PM

stop Global Whining

DHChron on February 8, 2012 at 7:24 PM

you mean i’ve been buying all these polar bear coke cans for nuthin’????

GhoulAid on February 8, 2012 at 7:25 PM

If anyone thinks that the Cult of AlGore will ever change remember the four tenets:

THE FIRST
If it is warmer than normal it is due to global warming.
If it is cooler than normal it is due to global warming
If it is the normal temperature it is due to global warming.

THE SECOND
If there are more hurricanes than last year it is due to global warming.
If there are fewer hurricanes than last year it is due to global warming.

THE THIRD
Warmer temperatures are global warming.
Record low temperatures are just weather.

THE FOURTH
Shut up and give me your money!

jukin3 on February 8, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Ocean levels worldwide are rising about six tenths of an inch per year, according to researcher John Wahr.

The oceans are still rising ?
He said he’d fix it 3 yrs ago ?
What happened ?

burrata on February 8, 2012 at 7:28 PM

My family is still freezing their bums off in Eastern Europe. Isn’t that where that picture was taken, Jazz?

JPeterman on February 8, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I’m not going to get concerned until the glaciers start growing. That has always been catastrophic for humans.

Rancher on February 8, 2012 at 7:36 PM

sea-rise and how the planet’s cold regions are responding to global change

So now it’s just “global change”? Seriously?

strictnein on February 8, 2012 at 7:36 PM

I’m guessing we DON”T need Cap n Tax anymore ?

burrata on February 8, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Does this mean that ALGore has finally put the global warming monster in a lockbox? Hurray! We’re all saved!!!!

ghostwalker1 on February 8, 2012 at 7:38 PM

To our resident trolls:
At what rate should the world’s glaciers be melting?

Simple question. There must be an acceptable natural melt rate. These things are not fixed and unchanging. So what is it?

strictnein on February 8, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Polar ice not melting as fast as you were told

No sh!t? I want my donations to the Save the Polar Bears fund back. Geez, just last week we were told this mild winter was because of AGW.

chewmeister on February 8, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Obama’s work is done, wingnuts.

faraway on February 8, 2012 at 7:40 PM

….hardest hit!
Al Gore!
Joining Weight Watchers!

KOOLAID2 on February 8, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Of course the ice is melting! How else could that woolly mammoth be wading in that stream in Siberia.

Oldnuke on February 8, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Much of the loss of ice has been shown to be caused primarily by particulates. Their presence makes the ice less reflective and the increased energy absorption is the real culprit.

MJBrutus on February 8, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Al Gore didn’t buy beach front property for his health.

Rovin on February 8, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Then somebody comes along and figures out a way to do it a little better.

Unless of course, the data doesn’t fit your theory. In that case you deactivate or ignore all the methods that you don’t like – a crappy method is preferred if it supports your agenda, don’t ya know.

peski on February 8, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Ocean levels worldwide are rising about six tenths of an inch per year, according to researcher John Wahr.

Then by all rights, the ocean at Daytona should be up to the seawall. Hmm. I’ll have to take a run over there.

Lanceman on February 8, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I’m not going to get concerned until the glaciers start growing. That has always been catastrophic for humans.

Rancher on February 8, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Exactly. I’d much prefer the problems associated with warming to cooling. I’d rather scuba dive than ice fish.

peski on February 8, 2012 at 7:48 PM

The liberal left had the rest of us duped good, for a long time. Now, with the CGate emails and Hide the Decline etc, their deceptive intent, and ideological motives, is clear as day. ALL their predictions of disaster, and ALL their models, have failed.

The wheels have fallen off their deception mobile. Yet these guys seem unfazed, moving apace like mindless automatons they roll out fresh baloney daily it seems, and new, but obviously (in advance) false predictions of doom. A joke.

anotherJoe on February 8, 2012 at 7:50 PM

It has taken me a while to fully understand the AGW movement but I think I have it now: greedy, industrialized nations have damaged the earth’s ecosystem with unbridled exploitation of it’s resources and, as a result, we must give all our money to the politicians (especially the ones in the greedy, industrialized nations) in order to save the planet and thus ourselves. Seems legit…

ghostwalker1 on February 8, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Global warming is a HOAX! Cap and Trade is a SCAM! There, I said it. Now I’m going to pat myself on the back for having stood firm against these crazy ideas. If this climate court wants to prosecute people for not complying, I demand to go first. Their madness doesn’t scare me one bit.

KillerKane on February 8, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Why were photos of cute polar bears not used to illustrate this post? :o(

TigerPaw on February 8, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Actually, sea level rise has been flat since Obama took office.

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

We’re saved! Well, the actual sea level rise before that was 1.31 ± 0.30 mm/yrmm per year. Even if the sea rises again, at that rate, we’ll have time to evacuate from, well, anywhere.

http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_4CE_SeaLevel.htm

The University of Colorado figure factors in sea floor spreading… controversial and impossible to accurately estimate.

theCork on February 8, 2012 at 8:10 PM

No sh!t? I want my donations to the Save the Polar Bears fund back. Geez, just last week we were told this mild winter was because of AGW.

chewmeister on February 8, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Mild in NA maybe, but from the UK across to Eastern Europe it’s a brutal Winter.

slickwillie2001 on February 8, 2012 at 8:10 PM

stop Global Whining
DHChron on February 8, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Now there’s a “bandwagon” I could get on. : )

listens2glenn on February 8, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The science is scuttled.

rogerb on February 8, 2012 at 8:12 PM

SO: WHATS THE LONG TERM TREND?

You need to look at a long period to get the real picture. Here is a link to a 150 year reconstruction. The rate of sea level rise hasn’t changed much in 150 years!

http://www.springerlink.com/content/h2575k28311g5146/fulltext.html

Other studies show it has since leveled off or declined.

So WHAT THE HELL! They create a model based on satellite measurements of glaciers, calculate the amount of meltwater, and don’t even check it with actual measurements? Really .6 inches per year?

The study I linked to, figure 3.2, shows sea level has risen less than 9.8 inches in 150 years, that’s only about .06 inches per year! The Rock Heads(tm) are off by a factor of 10!

Paul_W on February 8, 2012 at 8:12 PM

slickwillie2001 on February 8, 2012 at 8:10 PM

That’s the point. We’re having a relatively mild winter, yet Europe is freezing their a$$es off.

chewmeister on February 8, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Ocean levels worldwide are rising about six tenths of an inch per year, according to researcher John Wahr.
excerpt: Jazz Shaw

The oceans are still rising ?
He said he’d fix it 3 yrs ago ?
What happened ?
burrata on February 8, 2012 at 7:28 PM

I want an explanation as to how ‘they’ (whoever ‘they’ is) know for sure that it’s NOT the land that’s sinking.

listens2glenn on February 8, 2012 at 8:15 PM

listens2glenn on February 8, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Good point.

chewmeister on February 8, 2012 at 8:17 PM

The HA clip is messed up:

Ocean levels worldwide are rising about six tenths of an inch per year, according to researcher John Wahr.

The article linked actually says this:

Ocean levels worldwide are rising about six hundredths of an inch per year, according to researcher John Wahr.

Big difference.

slickwillie2001 on February 8, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I want an explanation as to how ‘they’ (whoever ‘they’ is) know for sure that it’s NOT the land that’s sinking.
 
listens2glenn on February 8, 2012 at 8:15 PM

 
Hank Johnson has already commissioned a study.

rogerb on February 8, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Let’s see, .4mm = ~0.016 inches, so in ~63 years the seas will rise one inch.

SERIOUSLY?

WitchDoctor on February 8, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Meanwhile CA and Los Angeles still plan to necessarily skyrocket the price of electricity and hurt so many middle class (Villaraigosas homies pay nothing)families to go solar and wind that is 300% more expensive than coal and natural gas… Big Corparation figured out that buying off the politiciuans here get them access to the sheeples money… GE is selling many municipalities expensive Windmills that will never pay off for the consumer…

CCRWM on February 8, 2012 at 8:28 PM

i know whats going to happen it happened before. The planet was hot, trees ferns everywhere then a ice age where things got cold lots of snow and colder temps then (we are right here) the planet got hot. This all has to do with the earths orbit around the sun which is like some wobbly hula hoop getting slightly closer and slightly farther from the sun over the coarse of millions of years. I know its true, my dog told me.
Or my cats theory that the sun is slowly turning into a “Red giant” where it increases in size eventually cooking and engulfing the closest planets before it explodes or something. (she got distracted by a bird and lost her train of thought)

Greed on February 8, 2012 at 8:37 PM

The science is scuttled.

rogerb on February 8, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Dude, that’s awesome!

Right after I read it, I made it up!

Thanks!

massrighty on February 8, 2012 at 8:37 PM

I want an explanation as to how ‘they’ (whoever ‘they’ is) know for sure that it’s NOT the land that’s sinking.

listens2glenn on February 8, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Oh yes, that’s as good as any anti-global warming theory that’s been proposed. Land is sinking as opposed to the ocean levels rising!

bayam on February 8, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Got Global Warming here in Missouri. sarc/

Have yet to have a serious storm or any real amount of snow hit us this winter.

Logus on February 8, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Oh yes, that’s as good as any anti-global warming theory that’s been proposed. Land is sinking as opposed to the ocean levels rising!

bayam on February 8, 2012 at 8:38 PM

I think l2g was illustrating absurdity by being absurd.

massrighty on February 8, 2012 at 8:40 PM

The science is scuttled. ©
 
rogerb on February 8, 2012 at 8:12 PM

 
Dude, that’s awesome!
 
Right after I read it, I made it up!
 
Thanks!
 
massrighty on February 8, 2012 at 8:37 PM

 
There. :)

rogerb on February 8, 2012 at 8:43 PM

There. :)

rogerb on February 8, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Too late!

massrighty on February 8, 2012 at 8:45 PM

I want an explanation as to how ‘they’ (whoever ‘they’ is) know for sure that it’s NOT the land that’s sinking.

listens2glenn on February 8, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Oh yes, that’s as good as any anti-global warming theory that’s been proposed. Land is sinking as opposed to the ocean levels rising!

bayam on February 8, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Why not. I hear some elected and powerful liberals actually think islands can tip over. In all seriousness, tectonic plates shift and land does sink/rise.

LarryinLA on February 8, 2012 at 8:53 PM

“We will look back and say, today is the day when ocean levels stopped rising.”

B. Obama, 2008

mdenis39 on February 8, 2012 at 9:01 PM

A new peer-reviewed study has found that 20th century warming is within the range of natural variability. That of course means that it never warmed enough that any eyebrow should have ever been raised. Yet, it is estimated that the U.S. alone has poured about $78 BILLION dollars into this scam.

Please be sure your elected official are for cutting 100% of all man-made Global Warming funds. This scam has gone on for more than 30 years, it’s time for the man-made Global Warming gravy train to be derailed.

And let the prosecutions begin.

Axion on February 8, 2012 at 9:32 PM

All I’m saying is that the planetary climate system is far more complex than we can currently model with the available data and computer power our present understanding.

NbyNW on February 8, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Why were photos of cute polar bears not used to illustrate this post? :o(

TigerPaw on February 8, 2012 at 8:05 PM

They all drowned.

OldEnglish on February 8, 2012 at 9:41 PM

But wait! THERE’S MORE!

On 9/24/2011, Damion Carrington, the climate change reporter from the left-leaning UK Guardian wrote an article titled: “Melting ice is Earth’s warning signal – and we cannot ignore it; From the Himalayas to the Arctic, the signs of danger are visible”

TODAY, he authored an article in the same paper titled: “The Himalayas and nearby peaks have lost no ice in past 10 years, study shows;meltwater from Asia’s peaks is much less then previously estimated, but lead scientist says the loss of ice caps and glaciers around the world remains a serious concern”

Here are the two articles back to back:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/sep/25/ice-melt-himalayas-climate-change

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains?intcmp=122

Opposite Day on February 8, 2012 at 9:58 PM

The AGW hoax is falling apart: German Media Destroys the Global Warming Scam

Today, not one, but two of Germany’s most widely read news media published comprehensive skeptical climate science articles in their print and online editions, coinciding with the release of a major climate skeptical book, Die kalte Sonne (The Cold Sun)…

slickwillie2001 on February 8, 2012 at 10:14 PM

I think we still need Cap-n-Tax, as it will only be a few years before someone discovers the ice caps are growing. Then, the Global Climate Change UN folks will propose to tax us for growing ice “caps” for research to warm the earth.

STL_Vet on February 8, 2012 at 10:27 PM

They all drowned froze.

OldEnglish on February 8, 2012 at 9:41 PM

It’s climate CHANGE now. Try to keep up with the lefty contortions.

Pattosensei on February 8, 2012 at 10:49 PM

you mean i’ve been buying all these polar bear coke cans for nuthin’????

GhoulAid on February 8, 2012

Don’t you know that everytime you open a Coke, you release CO2, and Polar Bears DIE?????

Wander on February 8, 2012 at 11:52 PM

Pattosensei on February 8, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Heh! Forgive me, I’m getting old. :)

OldEnglish on February 9, 2012 at 12:41 AM

The liberal left had the rest of us duped good, for a long time. Now, with the CGate emails and Hide the Decline etc, their deceptive intent, and ideological motives, is clear as day. ALL their predictions of disaster, and ALL their models, have failed.

The wheels have fallen off their deception mobile. Yet these guys seem unfazed, moving apace like mindless automatons they roll out fresh baloney daily it seems, and new, but obviously (in advance) false predictions of doom. A joke.

anotherJoe on February 8, 2012 at 7:50 PM

You mean all that money I spent on Ark #5 was a waste????????? Shiite!!!!!

WryTrvllr on February 9, 2012 at 1:04 AM

“We will look back and say, today is the day when ocean levels stopped rising.”

B. Obama, 2008

mdenis39 on February 8, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Hey, at least he got that part right.

WryTrvllr on February 9, 2012 at 1:06 AM

Oh yes, that’s as good as any anti-global warming theory that’s been proposed. Land is sinking as opposed to the ocean levels rising!

bayam on February 8, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Wow. It has to succk having even the University of East Anglia admit to no warming in over 13 years. And, no, I didn’t write the WSJ article. Did you?

WryTrvllr on February 9, 2012 at 1:57 AM

The sea is rising due to global warming?
Yeah, right!
That just means better sailing for me!
Now…tell me again where the edge of the Earth is…I don’t want to sail off the .
.
.
.
.
.

greataunty on February 9, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I’m not going to get concerned until the glaciers start growing. That has always been catastrophic for humans.

Rancher on February 8, 2012 at 7:36 PM

They have proven that man is responsible for the retreat of *some* of the glaciers, at least. Some guy in South America was chipping away at one to sell as ice cubes in bars………

GWB on February 9, 2012 at 11:02 AM

So when do we cut all the funding? Nothing matters about disproving the man-made Global Warming scam anymore, it’s already disproven a thousand times over. The science truly is settled at this point and the Warmists have lost.

These Warmists have been sucking up taxpayer dollars for more than 30 years, it needs to stop now. Make sure your elected officials are for cutting all funding for the climate scam.

Axion on February 9, 2012 at 1:36 PM