WaPo/ABC ends sample transparency in national polling

posted at 9:50 am on February 6, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Washington Post and ABC News has a new national poll out today.  It purports to show that Barack Obama has a 50% approval rating and that he would beat Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup.  And heck, that might even be true, except for a couple of problems.  First, this is a poll of general population adults rather than registered or likely voters, so it’s not even a proper polling type for the predictive outcome they claim.

More importantly, though, the poll series has dropped its reporting of partisan identification within their samples.  It’s the second time that the poll has not included the D/R/I split in its sample report, and now it looks as though this will be policy from this point forward.  Since this is a poll series that has handed double-digit partisan advantages to Democrats in the past (for instance, this poll from April 2011 where the sample only had 22% Republicans), it’s not enough to just hear “trust us” on sample integrity from the Washington Post or ABC.

One cannot determine whether Obama’s improvement in this series is a result of the State of the Union speech, as Dan Balz and Jon Cohen suggest, or whether it’s due to shifting the sample to favor Democrats more so than in previous samples.  The same is true for the Post’s report that Obama “for the first time has a clear edge” over Romney head-to-head.  One would need a poll of registered or likely voters to actually make that claim (one has to register to cast a vote, after all), and one would need to see the difference in partisan splits between this and other surveys in the series to determine whether the movement actually exists or got manufactured by the pollster.

Essentially, the overall poll is worthless, and given the track record of this poll series, it’s easy to assume that the reason that the Post has ended its sample transparency is because they have something to hide.

Among the Republicans and independents the Post did survey, Romney has a big lead over the rest of the field, 39/23 over Gingrich, with Santorum coming in at 16% and Paul at 15%.  Since we don’t know the mix between Republicans and independents here, either, and we’re still dealing with adults in the middle of the primaries when the likely voter model should be used, this is also a worthless result.

Update: The description in their news reports show 879 registered voters as a subsample.  However, their sample report only mentions the 1,000 adults of the overall sample, from which Obama’s 50% approval rating is taken, as well as their approval rating for the GOP rhetoric, which is prominently mentioned in the news report.  They do, however, report on both general population and registered voters for the Obama-Romney head-to-head — but again without any indication of the sample composition at all.

And once again, why anyone is polling adults in the middle of an ongoing primary is a complete mystery.  That should be likely voters.


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He’s just a dreamy,groovy guy and everyone loves him.

The WashPo has turned into a high school newspaper.

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

They have to keep coming up with new ways to convince the public that Obama is going to get reelected.

ConservativeMom on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I’ll lend more credence to the poll that Obama below 50 in 40 of our states…from what I hear amongst my network, it was spot on..ABC and WaHo are merely Obama’s groomsmen…

hillsoftx on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

They’re gearing up for an all-hands-on-deck desperate spin effort to keep Obama in the white house.

What a joke.

thirtyandseven on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I was thinking Pravda.

WisRich on February 6, 2012 at 9:55 AM

This poll is not worthless, it shows Pres Obama in the lead, which is the point of the article, to convince people that Pres Obama will win a second term.
Now if you said the poll was valid

LincolntheHun on February 6, 2012 at 9:55 AM

WaPo…..nothing catches Paint Overspray better…..or bird poop….or fish wrap….or stuffing in a package…..or anything else but reading for information

SDarchitect on February 6, 2012 at 9:55 AM

And contrary to the headline post, The WaPost sampled adults instead of registered voters.

I would really like to know what my statistics instructors would think of this. My grades weren’t all that great because, I always showed how easy it was to play with the numbers. Using the accepted formulas. Man, I hated that class.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Source: This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 1 to 4, 2012, among a random sample of 1,000 adults, including 879 registered voters

Ed, I agree the poll is crap but they do claim to include registered voters.

fiatboomer on February 6, 2012 at 9:58 AM

As long as they normalize the numbers, it shouldn’t matter if more Democrats than Republicans are polled.

huckleberryfriend on February 6, 2012 at 9:59 AM

The WashPo has turned into a high school newspaper.
NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Maybe, instead of printing it, they should just get someone to read it out loud over the PA system along with morning announcements. It would save some trees.

bofh on February 6, 2012 at 9:59 AM

WaPo to change its name to Tiger Beat, and every cover from now until November will feature studly heartthrob Barry Obama.

Bishop on February 6, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Is any one really surprised?

tinkerthinker on February 6, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Left wing propaganda

faraway on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Worthless or not the MSM will report it as gospel.

Kaffa on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

I’m shocked!

Tim Zank on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

They have to keep coming up with new ways to convince the public that Obama is going to get reelected.

ConservativeMom on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Washington Post, October 29, 2012:

10.5 million people leave the workforce

UNEMPLOYMENT AT 5%! AWWWW YEAH! HOPENCHANGE BABY!

fiatboomer on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

And this is surprising why? Wouldn’t it be more newsworthy if they actually ran a legitimate poll and accurately published all the data behind it?

climbnjump on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

I’ve never understood this line of thinking. Are they attempting to suppress GOP and Independent voter turnout by lying to everyone? They did this in 2010 right up until they lost the House by the largest margins in modern history… I just don’t get it.

gaius on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

ABC News marketing theme for Democratic National Convention coverage this year: Triumph of the Shill

forest on February 6, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Ed, I agree the poll is crap but they do claim to include registered voters.

fiatboomer on February 6, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Over 10% of the sample were not registered. It makes any claim of registered voters worthless and is disingenuous in making the statement in the first place.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:02 AM

And this is surprising why? Wouldn’t it be more newsworthy if they actually ran a legitimate poll and accurately published all the data behind it?

climbnjump on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

It’s the #1 story on their website (far above any Super Bowl news). The bots are eating it up. I dare you to look at the comments there.

The Washington Post. The nation’s leading left-wing blog.

fiatboomer on February 6, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Sadly, however, this is not a fail, any more than saying that Barky’s administration is a failure. Both have been successful in achieving their goals. The fact that a stronger, healthier United States is not one of them is beside the point.

bofh on February 6, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Yep, full court press from Izvestia and Pravda. The people will be very glad to have their esteemed leader re-established in his presidential palace the white house in 2013.

Given the condition of the economy and gas prices headed to the stratosphere, this stuff isn’t going to work very well. A few campaign commercials by the GOP (come on, there has to be at least one pair and a spine in the whole country) pointing out the energy failures of the president: Offshore drilling ban, Keystone pipeline rejection, throwing money away on crazy solar projects, etc. should pretty well torpedo the rainbows and unicorns mantra.

AZfederalist on February 6, 2012 at 10:04 AM

As long as they normalize the numbers, it shouldn’t matter if more Democrats than Republicans are polled.

huckleberryfriend on February 6, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Wait, what?

BuckeyeSam on February 6, 2012 at 10:04 AM

“Fake but accurate”

I agree, this is nothing more than propaganda, but now people have wised up to them. Things for The Zero must be getting really awful for these socialist outlets to admit they lie.

dogsoldier on February 6, 2012 at 10:04 AM

It’ll be this worthless crapola along with the race card until Nov

cmsinaz on February 6, 2012 at 10:04 AM

+1 bishop
:)

cmsinaz on February 6, 2012 at 10:05 AM

This is why Rasmussen is the only one I take seriously these days. He has an accurate sample and it’s of likely voters. He does show Obama to be hovering in the mid-to-high 40′s in approval(and even cracking 50% on occasion), but I think that comes down to people still liking the dude(don’t ask me why). If you ask them however whether or not they want him reelected, that’s when the numbers head south.

Every other pollster out there seems insistent on outsampling Dems over Republicans by margins even larger than they were in 2008 which is absurd given the current mood of the electorate, not to mention the midterm results in 2010. I know they’re just trying to manipulate the public into thinking Obama’s a heavy favorite for reelection, but when the time comes in the fall for them to start using a more accurate sample and their golden boy’s numbers suddenly drop by 10 points, that won’t do much for the credibility.

Doughboy on February 6, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Quick! Somebody get angryed a sedative! And a panty-wad-unbinder!

rogaineguy on February 6, 2012 at 10:06 AM

As long as they normalize the numbers, it shouldn’t matter if more Democrats than Republicans are polled.

huckleberryfriend on February 6, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Wow, lets manipulate the numbers even more! Hey I have an idea! Lets get the guys at the CRU to help them out!

The poll is a complete lie and they are admitting they lied.

Dan Rather, please pick up the courtesy phone…

dogsoldier on February 6, 2012 at 10:07 AM

One cannot determine whether Obama’s improvement in this series is a result of the State of the Union speech, as Dan Balz and Jon Cohen suggest, or whether it’s due to shifting the sample to favor Democrats more so than in previous samples.

One may not be able to determine, but one can take a wild guess.

Kataklysmic on February 6, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Barack Obama has a 50% approval rating and that he would beat Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup.

Even here in “blue” Delaware, with our former US Senator pretending to be a VP, there’s no way 0bama has a 50% approval rating.

GM and Chrysler had assembly plants here at one time. The Chrysler plant closed its doors permanently in 2008 and is being dismantled as we speak. Biden is saying that the GM plant is going to reopen, but that is doubtful.

All those union people are hungry for jobs, and the jobs aren’t there.

UltimateBob on February 6, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Yep, full court press from Izvestia and Pravda. The people will be very glad to have their esteemed leader re-established in his presidential palace the white house in 2013.

Given the condition of the economy and gas prices headed to the stratosphere, this stuff isn’t going to work very well. A few campaign commercials by the GOP (come on, there has to be at least one pair and a spine in the whole country) pointing out the energy failures of the president: Offshore drilling ban, Keystone pipeline rejection, throwing money away on crazy solar projects, etc. should pretty well t.o.r.p.e.d.o the rainbows and unicorns mantra.

/I can’t use that “t” word? Really? Moderatorbot ate my first post

AZfederalist on February 6, 2012 at 10:08 AM

As I note in the Headlines thread, in the past the WaPo has embargoed the entire “poll” until 6 PM ET. That gives this particular “poll” 1 complete News Cycle to Brainwash the Gullible.

In fact, the internals show that Questions 9 thru 14 have been embargoed “until later”.

Questions 9-14 held for future release

So, obviously they are hiding something they didn’t want to release this morning.

Del Dolemonte on February 6, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Actually, if you read Pravda.ru (the English version) they have better reporting on the US election than WaPo.

Kaffa on February 6, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Bishop Tiger Beat AHHHHHHHHHHH Memories! Bobby Sherman! David Cassidy!

lisa fox on February 6, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Thanks for clarifing this Ed. Everytime I read something that barack might win (read: steal) a second term, I have a caniption fit and need to take more drugs.

DuctTapeMyBrain on February 6, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Saw George Stephanopoulos on GMA talking about this. He had more than a “Tingle.” He was so happy he must have wet his pants.
“Nuff to make ya sick.” to quote the late Dapper O’Neil.

RickinNH on February 6, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Goebbels would be proud. And with this regime, I am going to go there.

rbj on February 6, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Hoping. And changing.

faraway on February 6, 2012 at 10:10 AM

It’s a setup for the Big Cheat in November. No one will buy an Obama reelection victory if he is shown 5+ points behind the day before the election.

Either the GOP candidate wins with a Reagan/Mondale-like blowout or we don’t win at all.

troyriser_gopftw on February 6, 2012 at 10:11 AM

link fail.
270towin.com

LtGenRob on February 6, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Since we don’t know the mix between Republicans and independents here, either, and we’re still dealing with adults in the middle of the primaries when the likely voter model should be used, this is also a worthless result.

Poll of “likely voters”: Meaningful, but only if sample is fair and the likeliness to vote is carefully determined.

Poll of “registered voters”: Meh.

Poll of “adults”: Utterly useless.

Non-transparent poll: Shove it where the sun don’t shine.

TXUS on February 6, 2012 at 10:12 AM

More importantly, though, the poll series has dropped its reporting of partisan identification within their samples. It’s the second time that the poll has not included the D/R/I split in its sample report, and now it looks as though this will be policy from this point forward.

New Liberal Media Policy: “If you can’t produce the intended results using fair and balanced parameters, just eliminate the parameters and lie to the public. Credibility is no longer an issue if the desired intent is achieved.”

Signed—Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Rovin on February 6, 2012 at 10:12 AM

You know who likes this? Progressives and Gingrich.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:13 AM

They’re gearing up for an all-hands-on-deck desperate spin effort to keep Obama in the white house.

What a joke.

thirtyandseven on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

This will also be used to manipulate future Republican primaries. “Conservative candidate X has favorables of negative eleventy!!! Vote for the liberal!!”

Unfortunately, it will probably work.

I’ve never understood this line of thinking. Are they attempting to suppress GOP and Independent voter turnout by lying to everyone? They did this in 2010 right up until they lost the House by the largest margins in modern history… I just don’t get it.

gaius on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Yes they are. And negative campaigning works. In this case, the phony poll is designed to make the supporters of the person with the “bad score” give up and go home and give the supporters of the democrat (or liberal Republican) a talking point to attack their opponents with. As I said above, this is a smart move by the liberals and will probably work.

Doomberg on February 6, 2012 at 10:13 AM

“…given the track record of this poll series, it’s easy to assume that the reason that the Post has ended its sample transparency is because they have something to hide.”

No kidding! They rig their polls with absurd partisan samples, then hide the samples. It’s the equivalent of fraud.

WannabeAnglican on February 6, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Ed, I agree the poll is crap but they do claim to include registered voters.

fiatboomer on February 6, 2012 at 9:58 AM
Over 10% of the sample were not registered. It makes any claim of registered voters worthless and is disingenuous in making the statement in the first place.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Not only that but how tough is this:
QUESTION:
“Hi, I’m calling all the residents of the dorm this morning to ask them if they agree that our first black president, the one trying to clean up the mess those awful republicans led by Bush left this country in will beat that gazillionaire wall street white guy that wants to kill poor people and black people too? Soooo, do you agree and are you a registered voter?”
ANSWER:
“Uhh…what? uhh, oh yeah, yeah, sure, uhh, yeah I’m a registered voter” (giggle giggle giggle snort snort as bong smoke pours forth from the nostrils) and I’m behind our President man…”

Pollster:

“Thank You for participating, can you hand the phone to your room mate?”

Tim Zank on February 6, 2012 at 10:15 AM

The WashPo has turned into a high school newspaper.

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

What do you have against high school newspapers?

platypus on February 6, 2012 at 10:16 AM

1st rule of HotRomneyAir: If a poll come out that you don’t like (eg: Obama beats Romney), it must be biased.

2nd rule: If a poll comes out that you do like (eg Romney beats Gingrich), polling is a perfect science, never to be questioned.

angryed on February 6, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I guess I don’t understand how this works to the democrats advantage: if you have a false sense of complacency, won’t you be more likely to stay home?

foxforce91 on February 6, 2012 at 10:16 AM

You know who likes this? Progressives and Gingrich.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Yes indeed, the MSM just lurrrrves them some Gingrich. That’s why you see twenty negative stories about Romney per day in every newspaper while no one in America has ever heard of Gingrich’s ex-wife, his work for Fannie and Freddie, or his multitude of gaffes – they’re saving those for when Gingrich gets to the general.

/

Doomberg on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

There’s nothing wrong with the poll – except the fact that the results aren’t what we’d like to see. The methodology seems perfectly fine to me.

Ed’s thesis making a poll of likely voters 7 months before the elections is completely bizarre. And most pollsters don’t weight for party identification – IMO rightly so even though there’s some debate about this. Basically, all the whining in this post doesn’t make any sense and, with all due respect, Ed Morrissey generally has no clue whatsoever about polls.

What this poll shows is that this primary is hurting the GOP big time, as I’ve been saying for awhile – not only hurting Romney, but the entire party and down ticket candidates everywhere. It’s not the first poll showing this. And there are plenty of non-public polls showing the same thing. Too many dirty and over-the-top attacks and rhetoric.

This madness needs to be over quickly or else Obama will be re-elected by the end of this month – and Pelosi will be Speaker again.

Newt re-elected Clinton in 1996 and he’s on his way to do the same with Obama.

joana on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

You know who likes this? Progressives and Gingrich.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Had to get the Gingrich bash in, didn’t ya’.

Good for you. Your string of useless posts remains unbroken.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

“Thank You for participating, can you hand the phone to your room mate?”

Tim Zank on February 6, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Won’t do no good. He’s gaming.

platypus on February 6, 2012 at 10:18 AM

angryed on February 6, 2012 at 10:16 AM

This is a crap poll and pointing it out shows a bias towards no candidate.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Bishop Tiger Beat AHHHHHHHHHHH Memories! Bobby Sherman! David Cassidy!

lisa fox on February 6, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Not to mention Leif Garrett!

Yes, I’m a guy, I only know this because I have sisters who used to read all that stuff.

UltimateBob on February 6, 2012 at 10:21 AM

I’ve never understood this line of thinking. Are they attempting to suppress GOP and Independent voter turnout by lying to everyone? They did this in 2010 right up until they lost the House by the largest margins in modern history… I just don’t get it.

gaius on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Me either. If Obama is a shoe in that is not going to motivate his worshippers to get off their lazy butts and go vote for him. Conservatives on the other hand are more than a little motivated by this kind of “news”.

txhsmom on February 6, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Don’t believe any polls! They are always skewed with more socialist demorats then any other block of voters!

vietvet68 on February 6, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Whining about the polls is the first sign that the preferred candidate is going to get slaughtered. There is over 90% of registered voters in this poll, so it’s not great, but it’s certainly not just a poll of adults. The fact of the matter is that Romney is irreparably damaged, thanks to Gingrich’s attacks and his own overall lameness as a candidate. He has no chance of winning, much like Bob Dole was just a sacrificial lamb in 96, and the whole election cycle ended up being pointless.

gumbyandpokey on February 6, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Left wing propaganda

faraway on February 6, 2012 at 10:00 AM

The politburo is alive in America!
I’m just waiting to see JugEars reading the telepromter and pounding his shoe on the lectern up on the podium…while the media swoons!

KOOLAID2 on February 6, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Washington Compost as Levin would say, is filled with DNC approved talking points, and polling.

Raquel Pinkbullet on February 6, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Won’t do no good. He’s gaming.

platypus on February 6, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Pollster: “It’s ok, you know him really well right? You can just answer for him”

Tim Zank on February 6, 2012 at 10:29 AM

You know who likes this? Progressives and Gingrich.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:13 AM
Had to get the Gingrich bash in, didn’t ya’.

Good for you. Your string of useless posts remains unbroken.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

It’s ok!
Put on your raincoat cozmo (I have mine on…with a hood)…bluegill should be here shortly…so they can tag-team!

KOOLAID2 on February 6, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Good for you. Your string of useless posts remains unbroken.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Good gravy you whine like a little girl.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Since you pick apart a poll you disagree with anyway, regardless of transparency of sample, why should they bother?

freshface on February 6, 2012 at 10:31 AM

This is a crap poll and pointing it out shows a bias towards no candidate.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:19 AM

That’s my point. Every poll is crap if it doesn’t go your way.

(I mean your, collectively not you individually)

angryed on February 6, 2012 at 10:31 AM

And once again, why anyone is polling adults in the middle of an ongoing primary is a complete mystery.

That’s a charitable way of putting it.

forest on February 6, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The WashPo has turned into a high school newspaper.

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM

The WaPo would have to raise its journalistic standards for that to happen. They are nothing but printed media department of Obama’s reelection campaign.

One example, the WaPo decided that the Occupy DC crowd is a noble political movement. It was adamantly reported that the White House shooter that lived among them, the guy who abandoned his child, and the thug who threw a brick into the face of police officer were all “not part of the movement.” This weekend’s clearing out of the vermin (and also the rats) was reported as if it were the Kent State riots or the crackdown in Tiennamen Square instead of the police going in and doing what they should have done months ago. There is no pretense of fairness in the WaPo when it comes to Occupy DC. The Tea Party rallies were described as mobs of racist thugs but the Occupods were idolized despite the destruction of a public park, the filth, the rats, and the fecal and urine bombs thrown at police costing the taxpayer $30K/month.

Happy Nomad on February 6, 2012 at 10:34 AM

These two left wing propaganda machines are not going to explain their data or its true source. They are beginning their push for Obama and we should prepare ourselves for mush more of their “creative statistics” and false Obama positives.

rplat on February 6, 2012 at 10:34 AM

The WashPo has turned into a high school newspaper.

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 9:54 AM
What do you have against high school newspapers?

platypus on February 6, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I stand corrected.

High school papers have higher standards and better journalists.

Before they get all mucked up in j-school and find out “to make a difference” requires telling readers what to think and does not include actual reporting.

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 10:35 AM

angryed on February 6, 2012 at 10:31 AM

There is a difference between the nutballs loving, or hating, polls.

This one, for the time being, stands alone in its over the top crappiness. I will join with even the Romney nutballs in making fun of this poll.

Good for you. Your string of useless posts remains unbroken.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Good gravy you whine like a little girl.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Well, little girl, you would know. But, in this case you don’t even know that.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Would that Woodward and Berstein were rolling over in their graves.

Because they’re the ones who started all of this.

NoDonkey on February 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM

The Truth shall set you Free.
And conversely.

Kenosha Kid on February 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I haven’t heard anyone bother to defend Obama in ages, and I’m in freaking New Jersey. Obama’s true approval rating nationally is prob about 40% and wouldn’t even be that high if he was white.

Go RBNY on February 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Baghdad Bob-on-the-Potomic. They need to cover to keep proclaiming that American Republican Forces are not rolling (rhetorical) tanks into Baghdad Washington!

Of course, other, more honest polls will show a very different trend, which won’t faze WaPo/ABC, and when the predicted victory for 0 in November turns into a landslide for ABO, their polls will go down the memory hole and the demonization of the new Prez will begin.

Nothing much new under the sun.

iurockhead on February 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM

2 months before the election they will show Obama with a 12-15% lead in the polls and a 60% favorable rating.SOP for the WaPo/NY Slimes bunch.

jeffinsjvca on February 6, 2012 at 10:37 AM

And in other breaking news….Washington Post and ABC are reporting that everyone who has a job is employed so through the greatness of Barak Obama full employment has been achieved…you will need to trust us on this one…Washington Post and ABC

Across town NBC,CBS, MSNBC CNN and the NY Times are furious they were scooped on this important story.

DVPTexFla on February 6, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Since you pick apart a poll you disagree with anyway, regardless of transparency of sample, why should they bother?

freshface on February 6, 2012 at 10:31 AM

If you can pick apart a poll based on the fidelity of the data then it deserves to be picked apart. Only a fool would take a supposedly scientific poll at face value without looking at the numbers. Only an extreme fool would trust the WaPo to be honest.

Happy Nomad on February 6, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Here’s the bet:

ABC/CBS/NBC call the election for Obama 7 minutes after the first polls close. Remainder of evening broadcast shows the joyous celebration.

BobMbx on February 6, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Baghdad Bob-on-the-Potomic. They need to cover to keep proclaiming that American Republican Forces are not rolling (rhetorical) tanks into Baghdad Washington!

iurockhead on February 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM

There are no republicans getting re-elected…None! Not one! I double guarantee it. We are beating them with their shoes.

BobMbx on February 6, 2012 at 10:40 AM

This is the same “poll denial” that occured in 92, 96, and 08. Do lefties go bat**** nuts,too, and attack polls when they don’t like the results?

We’ve got MITT ROMNEY, one of the worst candidates in history, running for President. What did we think would happen?

gumbyandpokey on February 6, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I haven’t heard anyone bother to defend Obama in ages, and I’m in freaking New Jersey. Obama’s true approval rating nationally is prob about 40% and wouldn’t even be that high if he was white.

Go RBNY on February 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I saw somebody in the grocery store sporting Obama 2012 pins on his coat. He was an unkempt forty-something balding loser who looked like he was still living in his mom’s basement. Beyond that I live in a very liberal area of Northern Virginia and have yet to see much Obama love right now despite what the WaPo may be doing for their jug-eared idol.

Happy Nomad on February 6, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Fixed it.

Voter from WA State on February 6, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Whew, I was about to write something.

We’ve got MITT ROMNEY, one of the worst candidates in history, running for President. What did we think would happen?

gumbyandpokey on February 6, 2012 at 10:40 AM

BS, and I ain’t supportin’ Romney.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Goebbels would be proud. And with this regime, I am going to go there.

rbj on February 6, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Stop stealing my material-I have been using the “G” word here on HA to describe the O’bama Democrat Media since 2009.

Del Dolemonte on February 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The ‘Whitehouse insider’ over at ‘The Ulsterman Report’ said to watch out for ‘misleading’ polls, if people have the ‘everyone else will be voting for him, then perhaps I should too’ mentality we’re in trouble but I honestly can’t see Americans falling for that.

keithofboston on February 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The partisan split isn’t static, and thus unless it is wildly off from previous polls, it doesn’t say much. What’s most important is that the other demographics are correct, and they tend to weight the results based on those demographics. They can’t adjust them by partisan split because that is not a static variable, so they don’t.

Maybe to save time/money on polling they stopped asking for partisan ID? I would, if I were doing the polling, as party ID on “adults” this far out from the election doesn’t particularly matter much.

Seixon on February 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Rush said they’d do this to demoralize us.

I figured they’d wait until at least April, but alas! Tis not to be. The king hath ordered his poll numbers to be served to the peasants early.

Key West Reader on February 6, 2012 at 10:46 AM

“And once again, why anyone is polling adults in the middle of an ongoing primary is a complete mystery. That should be likely voters.”

Maybe they have it on good authority, like the DNC chairman, as to the percentage of illegal voting to expect come Nov 2012.

Dusty on February 6, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Ed, and yet in the headlines section, you have posted the WaPo poll as if true and accurate. Something is fishy here, Ed.

Santorum love? Confuse the masses in one spot and rip the poll in another?

Please, please be judicious in your reporting.

As for Santorum, at least the spotlight will be on him finally. Maybe too late thanks to moneybags in Vegas who has a man crush on Gingrich. Anyways, before annointing Rick, I want him to play out in the media under the scrutiny before jumping on his bandwagon.

My choices all along were Romney and Santorum, though I did the rollercoaster run or waffle maker (flip-flop) with the previous front-runners like everyone else.

bumsteaddithers on February 6, 2012 at 10:48 AM

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:35 AM

You know, they do make meds to sooth your aching ovaries.

And go check out the “Nevada Final” thread. There you will find your fellow Romney haters touting this debunked poll as proof that Romney is unelectable.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:48 AM

There’s nothing wrong with the poll – except the fact that the results aren’t what we’d like to see. The methodology seems perfectly fine to me.

Ed’s thesis making a poll of likely voters 7 months before the elections is completely bizarre. And most pollsters don’t weight for party identification – IMO rightly so even though there’s some debate about this. Basically, all the whining in this post doesn’t make any sense and, with all due respect, Ed Morrissey generally has no clue whatsoever about polls.

joana on February 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

What “methodology”? They don’t tell us who they sampled, and also embargoed some of the poll results until later.

And yes, most pollsters do weight for Party ID. We’ve seen it here in the past, especially with WaPo and al-AP “polls”.

WaPo has in the past been busted for over-sampling Democrats by 14% or more (I even saw one where they oversampled Dems by 19%) and AP has run a couple of “polls” where they actually sampled twice as many Democrats as Republicans to get the result they desired.

Del Dolemonte on February 6, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Stop stealing my material-I have been using the “G” word here on HA to describe the O’bama Democrat Media since 2009.

Del Dolemonte on February 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The G-man is a piker compared to the Obama machine and its water carriers.

Kataklysmic on February 6, 2012 at 10:50 AM

And go check out the “Nevada Final” thread. There you will find your fellow Romney haters touting this debunked poll as proof that Romney is unelectable.

csdeven on February 6, 2012 at 10:48 AM

See, there ya’ go again. You are so batcrap nutball non-Romney hatin’ goofy, you don’t even see that I am defending Romney.

cozmo on February 6, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Who needs an actual election? Wapo says the Bamster’s got it all sewn up.

DHChron on February 6, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Ah, but Ed, the poll is NOT worthless. It is worth quite a bit – to the Leftists who are in the process of eliminating American liberty.

IronDioPriest on February 6, 2012 at 10:51 AM

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