PPP polls: Romney 14 up in Colorado, Santorum up two in Minnesota

posted at 2:00 pm on February 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Hot on the heels of Mitt Romney’s big win in Nevada come two more caucuses and another primary on Tuesday, in which no delegates will get directly assigned to any candidate.  However, both offer opportunities to shape the media coverage of the overall primary campaign, and for Rick Santorum, this might mean some good news.  PPP’s latest and final polls from Colorado and Minnesota give bad news to Newt Gingrich, however:

Last night’s results in Nevada were bad news for Newt Gingrich and PPP’s first day of polling in Colorado and Minnesota indicates things may only get worse for him in the coming days.

In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it’s much more abrupt.  We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he’s dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast.

Santorum’s good news comes from Missouri more than Minnesota, where he had an eleven-point lead over Romney in a poll taken last weekend.  A lot has happened since, and Romney’s momentum from Florida and now Nevada might prove decisive.  Santorum will be spending the day in Minnesota and the evening in Colorado, but I’d expect a bigger push to win the non-binding Missouri primary.  He needs another win, even one that produces no delegate assignments, to get the media to break out of the two-man-race paradigm that has dominated the last two weeks of coverage.

Minnesota may be another surprise in the making, although it’s too close to tell and an expected low turnout will complicate the outcome.  Santorum now leads among Tea Party voters in both Colorado and Minnesota, and he beats Gingrich among “very conservative” voters in Minnesota by 16 points, 41/25.  Santorum not only leads the first choice question in MN, he also wins the second-choice question by a wider margin of five points over Gingrich and six over Romney, 25/20/19, with Ron Paul at 9%.  He has by far the best favorability rating in the poll, with 72/18 giving him a +54, compared to a +7 for Paul, +8 for Gingrich, and +11 for Romney, the onlty other candidate to get to 50% favorable in MN.  Santorum’s votes here are second-most firm at 25%, behind Romney’s at 29%.

Let’s say lightning strikes twice on Tuesday and Santorum manages to win both Minnesota and Missouri, while Romney coasts to a win in Colorado.  Besides the Maine caucuses that go on all week (and which are also non-binding), does this give Santorum an edge on the argument for being the true conservative consolidation candidate?  And conversely, if Santorum can’t win anything on Tuesday and with big Romney leads looming in Arizona and Michigan, is there an argument for Santorum’s perserverance?


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Comment pages: 1 2

Remember that credibility you shot earlier? You just took it out back, covered it in gasoline, set it on fire and buried the ashes in a very deep hole.

alchemist19 on February 5, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Newt did that to himself. Read my Moon Colony reading of Newt. That did and should have destroyed him. It was insanely stupid. The first on the moon was very American but a Colony there makes no scientific sense at this point. No one would think anything other than Americans are Stupid if we did it. The Moon Shot was done as a cold war offense. There is no purpose of a Moon Colony. Muslims are our enemy and who we are at war with now. Newt seems to not really realize that. As a historian that is very bad. He should as a historian know why we went to the moon and who our enemy is now.

Santorum at least understands the basics of World War III. Someone needs to understand that we could unite the entire world by fighting this very real war. If we do not wake up they will win this war. Saw a documentary recently from Brittan. Putin (and China) understands the threat of Muslims far more than anyone in America seems to other than perhaps Santorum. Militant Islam is a politically correct obfuscation of the fact that Islam is militant if practiced correctly. It is Baal the same Baal as in the bible. Baal that God was constantly warning against.

82% of American Mosque have militant islamic brochures on display. All have them if you ask your Imam.
85% of Imams preach Sharia law and encourage the reading of these brochures.

Remember Muslims worldwide even in America at first cheered 9/11.

This is a war and we should start recognizing it as World War III. If we don’t then in the near future we will find ourselves ruled by Imams under Sharia law. To win it we will absolutely need the help of Russia and China. Unfortunately the bible does not give me hope on this. The bible indicates that Muslims will win this war. I truly fear we will live to see them win unless we wake up and stop Islam.

Steveangell on February 5, 2012 at 5:52 PM

4. Romney will be able to match Obama dollar-for-dollar and he has a tremendous grassroots organization in essentially all 50 states.

matthew8787 on February 5, 2012 at 5:33 PM

If you think that Romney will be able to match Obama in money your kidding yourself.

Sultanofsham on February 5, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Those who are referring to Santorum as a true conservative need to look into his spending record in PA; even voted for the bridge to nowhere. He also supported the biggest rino alive, Arlen Spector, who gave the key vote to Obamacare.

Belle on February 5, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Give your primary vote to a conservative.

Valiant on February 5, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Would love to do that, but a real one doesn’t exist in this current crop of candidates.

jazzuscounty on February 5, 2012 at 4:18 PM

All too sadly true.

trigon on February 6, 2012 at 12:36 AM

Sultanofsham on February 5, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Romney has friends in high places just like Obama does.

The power of the incumbency is strong, but a group of multi-billion dollar companies watching their potential revenue stream and stock prices get eviscerated by a hostile socialist president will match said president dollar for dollar. Don’t kid yourself. The business world will side with Romney.

scotash on February 6, 2012 at 2:35 AM

Those who are referring to Santorum as a true conservative need to look into his spending record in PA; even voted for the bridge to nowhere. He also supported the biggest rino alive, Arlen Spector, who gave the key vote to Obamacare.

Belle on February 5, 2012 at 9:07 PM

If that is the worst of this guys sins then he sounds like the best choice we have.

jones on February 6, 2012 at 2:35 AM

Decoski on February 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

We’ll try to save the country without you then.

Btw, we lose the Supreme Court if you help us lose this time.

scotash on February 6, 2012 at 3:13 AM

Dude, shut up, please. You’re comments are not helpful…

Buy Danish on February 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Don’t tell Jailbreak to shut up. I’m not sure what you mean by “helpful”, but I happen to find his comments entertaining. He’s just playing around, and who cares if his very mildly offensive comments might tweak a few people. Anyone who takes great personal umbrage at his comments are weak and pathetic, as far as I’m concerned. There are enough commenters here taking themselves so seriously and posting glum comments all the time.

bluegill on February 6, 2012 at 5:22 AM

I can understand the complaint about big government….

but the same crowd parsing every word said to make sure no one says anything bad about Mormons, are really going to all hate the religious guy on Rick?

Really?

When did he ever say he was going to install his religious views on you?

and how’s that attack any different than the Mormonism is a cult line?

mark81150 on February 5, 2012 at 3:19 PM

There is a BIG difference. Mitt Romney has been CRYSTAL CLEAR about not applying the tenets of his faith to governance.

On the other hand, Santorum is on record blasting contraception and saying that he is a-okay with certain kinds of private sex between consenting adults being banned.

bluegill on February 6, 2012 at 6:30 AM

bluegill on February 6, 2012 at 5:22 AM

I am not amused. Then again I’ve always hated slapstick routines.

Buy Danish on February 6, 2012 at 8:41 AM

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