Rasmussen: Obama job approval among uncommitted voters at 20%; Update: Obama 44, Santorum … 45?

posted at 9:45 am on February 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Some have suggested that Republicans could nominate a syphilitic camel in 2012 and still beat Barack Obama. (Hey, I’m willing to hear the camel out; what’s his position on taxes?) That sounded like hyperbole until Scott Rasmussen released this video today, discussing the internals of his head-to-head matchups in weekly tracking polls. Mitt Romney now ties Obama 45/45 in the latest three-day cycle, but the uncommitted voters — 420 respondents, 12% of their sample — have a distinctly sour take on the President:

Note that this doesn’t equate entirely to “independents,” although I’d guess that most of these respondents are unaffiliated. Some independents are committed to one candidate already, and independents make up more than 12% of the population, of course. This shows that most people are already engaged enough to make a choice — perhaps not a strong choice, but at least an interim choice. And even those who can’t pull the lever at the moment are very disinclined to vote for the incumbent they know, which is a very bad sign for Obama.

Don’t miss Scott’s new book, The Peoples’ Money, which just came out this week. Scott and I discussed the book and the race on Wednesday, which you can see here.

Update: Today’s update to the tracking poll shows Rick Santorum now a point ahead of Obama in head-to-head matchups:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 26% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14 (see trends).

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is at 45% while President Obama earns 44%. This is the first time in any poll that Santorum has led the president. Several other GOP challengers have led the president a single time in the polls including Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Each man briefly held the lead while they were surging in the polls, only to fall quickly. It remains to be seen what will happen to Santorum’s support.

Santorum gets 78% of the Republican vote and leads by ten among those not affiliated with either major party. President Obama get 83% of the Democratic vote in that matchup. Santorum leads by 16 points among men but trails by 12 among women. As is typically the case in all matchups, the president leads among those under 40 while the GOP hopeful leads among those who are over 40.

But how does Zeeba do head-to- … er … snout?


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Some have suggested that Republicans could nominate a syphilitic camel in 2012 and still beat Barack Obama.

That is out of line. I mean, listen, I don’t much care for flimflam Newt either, and I certainly understand your frustrations with his still being in the race and stinking things up something fierce, but I don’t think we need to go spreading rumors that he has syphilis.

VorDaj on February 4, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Time for Gingrich to drop out and support Rick Santorum, Yes indeed

DaMav on February 4, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Yes, I’m agreeing that it is time for Newt to drop out. He’s done what he could, but he is done.

Mirimichi on February 4, 2012 at 5:07 PM

I’m sick of these polls. I want to see this:

-Approve
-Disapprove
-Disapprove but will still vote for the SCOAMF anyway

And then just take out that middle number and there are the real poll numbers.

(Don’t know what SCOAMF is? Visit aceofspades)

tdpwells on February 4, 2012 at 5:30 PM

I’ll tell you Mittens, why those who only approve of JugEars by 20% are not jumping on board with you. It’s because there is not a whit’s worth of difference between you and JugEars

NOMOBO on February 4, 2012 at 6:00 PM

To all you Newt bashers:

Take a look at the rightscoop video of Newt on another thread here. Newt hits it right on the button, and there is truly no arguing with it. Newt needs to stay in, get his message to resonate, win the nomination and obliterate JugEars.

NOMOBO on February 4, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Santorum is only polling well against Obama now because Santorum hasn’t faced the kind of media scrutiny (and attacks from competitors) that Mitt and Newt have received. Most don’t know a whole lot about Santorum.

bluegill on February 4, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Time for Gingrich to drop out and support Rick Santorum, Yes indeed

DaMav on February 4, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Though I supported Newt at first, I sincerely wish that this would happen. Sadly, I don’t think it will. But I’ve been wrong before…

philwynk on February 4, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I guess I and my husband fall into that category. Santorum? yeah. we’d look at him seriously. In Arizona we’ll vote for him. Even if he’s still not running? We’ll vote for ron paul.

athenadelphi on February 4, 2012 at 8:54 PM

An auto-playing video is bad. And an auto-playing video with a non-skippable, non-mutable advertisement prefacing it is worse.

But an auto-playing video, with no way to skip or mute the ad before it, that’s nobbut a pile of horse manure claiming economic “growth” (!!!) since Barry Obama took office in support of his re-election campaign? Seriously?

Is HotAir trying to drive away long-time readers?

Blacksmith on February 4, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Blacksmith on February 4, 2012 at 9:07 PM

I don’t have problems with such things. Try a browser that is able to use AdBlock, Flashblock or else use a hosts file.

ddrintn on February 4, 2012 at 9:20 PM

If Romney wins the nomination, we’ve lost before a ballot was cast in the general election.

Paul is a crank, and Newt is a wildcard who could govern as that guy from ’94…or that guy from San Fran Nan’s couch.

So that leaves Santorum.

18-1 on February 4, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Polls like this are pointless until there’s a Republican nominee.
Ortzinator on February 4, 2012 at 4:29 PM

That is exactly right.

listens2glenn on February 4, 2012 at 9:41 PM

If Romney wins the nomination, we’ve lost before a ballot was cast in the general election.
So that leaves Santorum.
18-1 on February 4, 2012 at 9:27 PM

The Republican nominee IS going to win this election, no matter WHO the nominee is.
ALL of our candidates can beat Barack Obama.

BTW, I’ll be voting for Rick Santorum. : )

listens2glenn on February 4, 2012 at 9:48 PM

The Republican nominee IS going to win this election, no matter WHO the nominee is.
ALL of our candidates can beat Barack Obama.

BTW, I’ll be voting for Rick Santorum. : )

listens2glenn on February 4, 2012 at 9:48 PM

I lean this way too. There isn’t much fervor left for Obama. The most passionate voters are desperate to get him OUT.

OTOH, Obama supporters are sheepish. Their turnout will be low, especially given his young and inner-city demographic. Unless he can get them to buy into his vapid promises again, they won’t bother to vote.

That said, I think Romney and Santorum are the safest bets. More Obama voters might go to the polls to vote “no” on Gingrich than on Romney or Santorum.

Grace_is_sufficient on February 5, 2012 at 5:38 PM

The Republican nominee IS going to win this election, no matter WHO the nominee is.
ALL of our candidates can beat Barack Obama.

<>

listens2glenn on February 4, 2012 at 9:48 PM

I lean this way too. There isn’t much fervor left for Obama. The most passionate voters are desperate to get him OUT.

OTOH, Obama supporters are sheepish. Their turnout will be low, especially given his young and inner-city demographic. Unless he can get them to buy into his vapid promises again, they won’t bother to vote.

That said, I think Romney and Santorum are the safest bets. More Obama voters might go to the polls to vote “no” on Gingrich than on Romney or Santorum.

Grace_is_sufficient on February 5, 2012 at 5:38 PM

IMO that’s been the whole point of Romney’s campaign, not that I prefer him over other candidates in this cycle. However, it’s a bet I’m not willing to make.

When the chips are down, the Democrats will get their union troops and paid ACORN (or whatever they’re called now) in line to pull Obama over the finish line, by rigging and stealing the election.

The Republican establishment could have given a few inches and let the grassroots nominate someone the base could get exited about, to ensure intensity would be on the Right. It’ll be a wash with Romney at the top of the ticket, unless another conservative lightning-rod is selected for Vice President.

Jurisprudence on February 6, 2012 at 2:00 AM

…unless another conservative lightning-rod is selected for Vice President.

Jurisprudence on February 6, 2012 at 2:00 AM

I have a feeling it will be Romney/Huckabee. Seems crazy, especially given Huckabigot’s history from 2008. But you do what you have to do in order to win. Huckabee can turn on the charm, and he’d do well in the south where they seem to like preacher-like candidates.

bluegill on February 6, 2012 at 8:14 AM

“It’s not the people that vote that count: It’s the people who count the vote”
Stalin

Obama by 8 points come Nov.

acyl72 on February 6, 2012 at 11:21 AM

If 76% of uncommitted voters disapprove of Obama, why aren’t they choosing Romney? Romney needs to get up and tell these voters WHY he would be a better President than Obama–they’re waiting for a good reason!

Steve Z on February 6, 2012 at 12:13 PM

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