Obama money advantage disappearing

posted at 10:25 am on February 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

For a year, Republicans have worried about having to face a billion-dollar Re-Elect Obama machine in the fall.  Most have just assumed that whoever wins the GOP nomination will have to contend with being outfunded and outgunned, even apart from the usual Democratic advantages of the news media and entertainment industry.  National Journal punctures this expectation by looking at the pace of fundraising for Barack Obama’s campaign and the outside groups expected to boost him into orbit:

This year, it’s the Republicans’ adept and aggressive use of super PACs to even the financial playing field, blunting the often-massive money advantages that an incumbent president has at his disposal. With the emergence of American Crossroads, Crossroads GPS and Restore Our Future, a well-stocked Romney super PAC, the Obama fundraising juggernaut no longer looks so imposing.  If Romney is the Republican nominee, he won’t be overwhelmed with a wave of negative advertising, and will have the resources to fight back.

Take a look at the end-of-year numbers.  The Obama campaign ended the year with $81.8 million cash-on hand – a very strong total.  But the outside Democratic groups, especially the party’s newly-created super PACs, haven’t given him much assistance in the way of reinforcements.  The Democratic National Committee has $12.6 million cash-on-hand to assist. But Priorities USA banked a meager $1.5 million, receiving money from just 42 individual donors in the last six months.   The party’s Congressional super PACs – Majority PAC and House Majority PAC — also didn’t bank much, $1.3 million and $1.17 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign ended the year with $19.9 million in the bank, far less than the president’s cash haul.  But when you add in the outside groups, he’s about at even strength.  Romney’s super PAC, Restore Our Future, banked $23.6 million at the end of the year, thanks to funding from venture capitalists aligned with Romney.   American Crossroads, which is poised to play an outsized role in the presidential race, ended the year with $15.6 million cash-on-hand.  And the RNC ended the year with more cash-on-hand than the DNC, banking $20 million.  All told, that adds up to $79.1 million – and it doesn’t include the cash-on-hand from Crossroads GPS, which doesn’t file with the Federal Election Commission.  But based on Crossroads’ announced fundraising totals, it’s logical to assume that they have around $15 million on-hand.

That brings the combined Obama + Democratic outside group totals to $98.3 million cash-on-hand, with the GOP groups tallying $94.1 million.  Take out the Democratic groups strictly devoted to Congressional activities, and it’s a virtual financial tie.  With labor and environmental groups poised to help Obama’s re-election, Democrats still could hold a narrow edge.  But it’s hardly the cash advantage that would allow Team Obama to run negative advertising uncontested against Romney, without an aggressive response.

The fundraising pace for Obama’s campaign itself, and not the total with the DNC, has actually lagged slightly behind that of George W. Bush in 2004.  The amounts  have also fallen a bit each time in the last two quarters.  I’ve noted that at each disclosure point in 2011 and projected the eventual total to somewhere around $250 million — a substantial number and certainly good enough for a three-month general election campaign, but the billion-dollar behemoth is as likely as a the Loch Ness monster giving an interview over the summer.

That’s not the only advantage disappearing, either.  Gallup released Obama’s job-approval ratings in 2011 by state yesterday, and he only tops 50% in ten plus the District of Columbia:

In 10 states plus the District of Columbia, a majority of residents approved of the job Barack Obama was doing as president last year, according to aggregated data from 2011. His greatest support came from District of Columbia, Maryland, and Hawaii residents, while Utah and Idaho residents gave him his lowest levels of support — below 30%. …

With the average state showing a 3.2-point drop in approval between 2010 and 2011, the number of states showing majority approval of Obama did not change much between the two years, moving from 12 states and the District of Columbia in 2010 to 10 states plus D.C. in 2011. Washington state and Rhode Island were the two states that dropped below 50% approval last year.

However, Obama was on pace to show an increase in majority approval states — to 16 plus the District of Columbia – midway through 2011. But his lower approval ratings in the third and fourth quarters of the year resulted in a net decline in the number of states above 50% approval by the time the year was complete.

The news was actually worse when comparing 2011 to 2010, which wasn’t exactly a banner year for Obama and Democrats anyway.  Obama’s job approval rose between 2010 and 2011 in only three states — Wyoming (where it could barely have gone lower anyway), Connecticut, and Maine.  In key states for the 2012 election in either the Presidential or Senate races, Obama dropped significantly:

  • Nebraska: -6.9%
  • New Mexico: -6.9%
  • Nevada: -5.7%
  • Montana: -5.3%
  • Ohio: -5.3%
  • Colorado: -4.8%
  • North Carolina: -3.2%
  • Florida: -2.2%

The two trends are probably not unrelated, either.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Hmm, good to know. It always did seem odd to me that Republicans hated the man, and that democrats were disappointed even if they were still minimally backing him, and yet he has a billion dollars to advertise with?

Yeah, glad to hear that was overblown.

WolvenOne on February 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

LOL. You don’t know me. Obviously.

Not that it matters, but LOL.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

By the way, how’s the old girlfriend? I was in the tank last night and was looking to discuss that with you. Head hurts this morning, however.

;-)

The War Planner on February 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

heh. She’s well actually…a medic in the Army. No word on whether her “skills” have improved :)

DHChron on February 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

But, please don’t plead a case for a white bread cucumber with Obamalise sammich. We swallowed a turdburger in 2008 with McCain; I’d rather just sit this one out.

Obama + Romney = DNC

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Not to worry. Mitt’s people were behind many of the nastiest attacks against my candidate of choice (Palin) so I won’t be pounding any pavement for him, but on November 6th it’s going to very difficult to not skip to the polls at 6 AM and cast a ballot for anyone that can rid us of the worst president in American history.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

If you’re happy with Obama, you are certainly welcome to go with the status quo. But then shouldn’t you really be at Kos or DU instead of here?

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

C’mon, Bud. Everyone who is less than thrilled with what looks like our ultimate choice is not automatically a screaming lib. Most Republicans will vote for the nominee, but as I glean from the other side my own family back in Sweet Home Chicago, they ain’t happy about their choice either.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on February 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Obama is giving a campaign speech in Fall Church VA, and he says his new REFI program is going to cost the government a fee.

Does anyone know how he can give away this program and charge a fee?

My mortgage, a 30 yr. fixed does not require a pre payment penalty.

All we need to do is end the mark to market immediate cash valuation of these homes in order to finance them. You could do this based on the fact that the home is not being sold, and value it at the price paid by the consumer.

Quick, easy.

Only for people current on their payments.

Look for the sneaky parts here in the Obama ReFI, I think he is not telling us enough.

For One thing, who is paying someone what for this? I can end the profits to the bank on my loan today, by forking over what I owe them, they are not actually entitled to 30 years of interest in addition to paying back the purchase price.

Waive the appraisal, let the bank decide if the mortgage is worth refinancing, based on up to date payments, and if you still have a job in the Obama New Normal.

So, where is the FEE money going? are we giving banks money to end loans that didn’t require a pre payment penalty? I can’t find it.

Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Obama + Romney = DNC

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Doubtful.

Bammie WILL lose (the similarities to Carter’s reelection bid are striking). It’s just a damned shame that we couldn’t replace his worthless, redistributionist libtard @ss with a true Conservative.

Tim_CA on February 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

But, please don’t plead a case for a white bread cucumber with Obamalise sammich. We swallowed a turdburger in 2008 with McCain; I’d rather just sit this one out.

Obama + Romney = DNC

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Don’t be a fool! Anyone other than Obama is the best choice!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

cast a ballot for anyone that can rid us of the worst president in American history.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Often, we are called upon to compare and contrast in an effort to draw a conclusion.

I invite all to compare and contrast Obama to Romney in terms of policy. There is no difference between the two. Even the money factor is even.

ThInK

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Okay, I haven’t used the quotes previously and blew it. Would someone explain how it is done properly.

Thanks!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 11:36 AM

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

LOL. You don’t know me. Obviously.
Not that it matters, but LOL.
Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Well, when somebody demands I “listen to the left” I tend to write him off. I’m just not as big on sitting through a lecture by Professor Obama. But to each his own.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Listen. To. The. Left.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

What sort of special insight do Kool Aid drinkers have on anything? According to these same Kool Aid drinkers the Tea Party is astroturf, Republicans would not win big in 2010 and banking deregulation somehow magically inflates home prices. Of course you can point to times when the Kool Aid driknkers were right, but every moron is sometimes right. And you are propping up the same Kool Aid drinker who likes to tell us we are a center, left nation.

NotCoach on February 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Waive the appraisal, let the bank decide if the mortgage is worth refinancing, based on up to date payments, and if you still have a job in the Obama New Normal.

So, where is the FEE money going? are we giving banks money to end loans that didn’t require a pre payment penalty? I can’t find it.
Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Better question:

What happens to the escrow accounts that have gone into default? Those are the Homeowner insurance companies and local tax authorities have not realized any revenue since the homeowner went into default, but managed to pay 3 months to the bank.

ThInK

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Regardless of the nominee for the GOP, I keep wondering what states Bush won in 2004 that oloser can win in 2012. However all possible GOP nominees worry me.

karenhasfreedom on February 1, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Often, we are called upon to compare and contrast in an effort to draw a conclusion.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:35 AM

We were all hoping to not hold our noses and have to vote for the lesser of two evils this time around. The candidates who could have delivered that option for us either didn’t run or dropped out.

The difference between Mitt and Obama is this: Obama knows socialistic policies will bankrupt the United States and to him that’s a feature, not a bug. The only fig leaf we have is the hope that Mitt is telling the truth about his conservative converstion. If you choose not to buy that, I certainly understand but it necessarily means an immediate spiral into despair.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Okay, I haven’t used the quotes previously and blew it. Would someone explain how it is done properly.
Thanks!
jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Copy, paste the quote from another message. Then highlight the entire part you want to quote. Then click the “quote button” above the message box.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Well, when somebody demands I “listen to the left” I tend to write him off. I’m just not as big on sitting through a lecture by Professor Obama. But to each his own.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Listen to the left. They tell you what they think.

Then you get smarter, through studying their mindset, their motivations, their ideology.

What’s so hard to understand?

When you know your (I can’t say enemy) counterpart.

You can defeat them.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Romney can win, and if he goes negative in his ads as hard as he does against conservatives, then he can raise enough money to take obama to the woodshed. I wish it were practically anyone but Mitt, but I’ll vote for Donald Duck before doing anything that helps obama win.

If Mitt’s ads and attacks satisfy the need to utterly destroy Obama’s image in the public mind and push his approval ratings into the 30% range, I’ll even contribute money to the pac that’s producing them.

Obama must be defeated, no matter what, no matter how. If Romney takes ‘his turn’ in the big chair, Pubs will have to make sure we take the Senate back and strengthen our majority in the House, and then aggressively and relentlessly ride herd on Romney. If he fails to deliver for conservatives, 2016 is ripe for a 3rd-party uprising.

Harbingeing on February 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Not from what I hear…Obama raised 80 million in last quarter…coupled with DNC.

We must match him $ to $ to have a clear shot in November.

Redford on February 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

If he were smart, he wouldn’t need affirmative action to get into Harvard.

DHChron on February 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Yeah, we all know black men do not have the smartness to get into Harvard.

Salahuddin on February 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

If you choose not to buy that, I certainly understand but it necessarily means an immediate spiral into despair.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Look at it this way:

Hey! Great to see ya, would you like to buy this brown plastic guy, or the white plastic guy?

I know you’re really enthusiastic about buying your plastic guy, but come on! Which one looks better?

Choose, choose now!

/They both sing!

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Yeah, we all know black men do not have the smartness to get into Harvard.

Salahuddin on February 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

You’re a lying sack of Al Sharpton Courtesy of Your Black World dot com

/Weasel.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

There’s a lot of unaccounted for TARP money, overseas donors, and of course money washed through ‘green energy intiatives’.

He’ll get his billion.

CorporatePiggy on February 1, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Look at it this way: with Obama there is a 0% chance of anything conservative happening.

With Mitt there is a greater than 0% chance.

And we get the incredible bonus of watching Narcissist-in-Chief Barak, his lovely bride Moochelle, and co-president Valerie Jarret pack up their $hit and head back to Chicagoland in all the disgrace that accompanies being a one term president.

That’s the most attractive case I can make.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Key West,

I invite all to compare and contrast Obama to Romney in terms of policy.

Romney is a turn around artist and cut the Mass government severely enough for them to hate him with an insane jealousy.

A lot of the anti Romney rhetoric doesn’t acknowledge this and likes to pretend Romney is a Schwarzteneger type, but Romney actually changed and saved the MA government, and Schw. did not seem to have the argument to do it. Romney just asks, how you will pay for that?

A lot of people do funny things in revisionist history to say Romney was a liberal/moderate in MA, but think: his fellow Republicans at the time gave him the respect of electing him president of the Republican Governors Association, he was the Scott Walker or Chris Christie of his time. We have all evolved since then, for one thing in MA we have had 5 years of a very short liberal Obama Mini Me, and many of us have refined our views given the recession.

In 2008 we thought the budget was out of control, now it has been inflated by three years of phony stimulus budgets…YES three years they have used the stimulus numbers instead of writing a budget in the Obama Senate

Romney is fully aware of this and intends to roll every thing back ward. Where he differs from Newt, is that Newt can just proclaim that we can all have a 15% flat tax, or Cain can declare a 999. But Romney actually puts the numbers on paper…he is more like Paul Ryan in that regard. And with a Tea Party congress, he is the man to figure out how to make the numbers that REAL conservatives want work.

Who told you Obama and Romney have the same policies? you have to be more specific, it is simply not the case.

Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Thanks, whatcat!!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Disclaimer: Boyce Watkins is a permanently persecuted black guy, and is the author of the article above. Despite all of our progress, Dr. Watkins just can’t get off that Jesse Jackson wagon of persecution.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:54 AM

And we get the incredible bonus of watching Narcissist-in-Chief Barak, his lovely bride Moochelle, and co-president Valerie Jarret pack up their $hit and head back to Chicagoland in all the disgrace that accompanies being a one term president.

That’s the most attractive case I can make.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

..more than worth the price of admission, I’d say.

The War Planner on February 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Well, when somebody demands I “listen to the left” I tend to write him off. I’m just not as big on sitting through a lecture by Professor Obama. But to each his own.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Listen to the left. They tell you what they think.
Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I just don’t find desperate left-wing trolls as the honest deep thinkers as you would have them. It’s bizarre you would actually believe they are deeply concerned for Republicans and are only seeking to give helpful, honest advice. That should be a textbook definition of “gullible”.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Point taken. My brother in law is from Mass, he’s all Romney.

I just can’t see Mister Plastic Rich White Guy debating Mister Plastic Black Guy from the So Called Ghetto Now Living in Luxury getting it on in a debate.

Plastic. Ick.

/Sigh.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Thanks, whatcat!!
jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

You’re welcome – it should work the same for most devices/browsers.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:59 AM

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Argh. You’re right.

Again.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 12:01 PM

I’m sure plenty of black men can and do qualify to get into Harvard on actual merit. Too bad Obama obviously isn’t one of them.

Worse yet, Obama likely had taken his place from someone genuinely far more qualified. It’s his ill-gotten gains which have made Bambi so angry and destructive.

viking01 on February 1, 2012 at 12:02 PM

I just don’t find desperate left-wing trolls as the honest deep thinkers as you would have them. It’s bizarre you would actually believe they are deeply concerned for Republicans and are only seeking to give helpful, honest advice. That should be a textbook definition of “gullible”.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

In KWR’s defense, if you look at lib4life’s talking points, he lays out precisely what the attacks on Mitt are going to be–class warfare and Mormonism. It’s not anything we didn’t know months ago, but he at least confirms it.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Bad article.

Super PACs money isn’t nearly as effective as money on the hands of the candidate/party committee. They can’t coordinate.

Plus, lots of that Super PAC money will need to go to Senate/Congress/Governor races.

So, Obama still has a big lead and the longer the GOP Primary is, the larger will be his advantage.

joana on February 1, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Okay, I haven’t used the quotes previously and blew it. Would someone explain how it is done properly.

Thanks!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 11:36 AM

If you want to be “in with the in-crowd”, you’ll pick up what commenter Schadenfreude put down for me a couple or so months ago:

Type in the words you want to lead to whatever awesome link–articles/video/pictures you want to be seen. Highlight those words. Go (in a different window) straight to the piece you chose to display. Highlight & copy the web address. Return to the HA page where the words you chose are still highlited. Click “link” above. Hit *Caps Lock*, press Ctrl+V, then paste the web address you’ve copied. Press OK, and your link is good as gold!

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on February 1, 2012 at 12:07 PM

We can either concede defeat to Obama now, or we can amuse ourselves by indulging in the fantasy that Mitt can win and may not be a total disaster as potus. I choose the latter.

Kataklysmic on February 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

+1

SomeCallMeJohn on February 1, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Type in the words you want to lead to whatever awesome link–articles/video/pictures you want to be seen. Highlight those words. Go (in a different window) straight to the piece you chose to display. Highlight & copy the web address. Return to the HA page where the words you chose are still highlited. Click “link” above. Hit *Caps Lock*, press Ctrl+V, then paste the web address you’ve copied. Press OK, and your link is good as gold!
Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on February 1, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I’m not sure the question was about linking – more how to quote. At any rate, that sounds like a long way to go about linking. I go with, instead:
1. Copy link
2. Click “link button” and paste link in the popup box, click OK.
3.Type in whatever name you want for the link
4. Click “link button” once more – and there’s your link, good to go.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Thanks, Ladysmith CulchaVulcha!!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 12:19 PM

whatcat, the question was about quotes, but I appreciate the additional info!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 12:20 PM

1. Copy link
2. Click “link button” and paste link in the popup box, click OK.
3.Type in whatever name you want for the link
4. Click “link button” once more – and there’s your link, good to go.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 12:16 PM

1. Type word or phrase or sentence or paragraph you want to associate with a hyperlink.
2. Copy link.
3. Highlight word or phrase or sentence or paragraph.
4. Click “link” button.
5. Paste copied link into link window.

Note: When I used to use Windows IE link button was blocked. Had to override every time I wanted to use it.

NotCoach on February 1, 2012 at 12:22 PM

whatcat, the question was about quotes, but I appreciate the additional info!

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Very welcome, m’dear. Pay it forward.
:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on February 1, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Obowma: “But, but, but…I, I, I, I, I won. let’s just deem that I get a billion dollars. Afterall, we are the ones we’ve been waiting for”.

dthorny on February 1, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Note: When I used to use Windows IE link button was blocked. Had to override every time I wanted to use it.
NotCoach on February 1, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Ah, yeah, you never know with IE. I only use it for the few sites that may not respond well to other browsers. Otherwise I use Firefox almost exclusively.

whatcat on February 1, 2012 at 12:33 PM

NotCoach, Thanks!

You guys have been great. I always try to help out when I can, Ladysmith.

jqc1970 on February 1, 2012 at 12:35 PM

OT:

ManLegManBoobs chokes on a beet

Ick. Can someone buy this woman some class? Who dresses her? Sheesh.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 12:43 PM

And Bambi loves the poor.

We know that because he’s created so many of them.

PackerBronco on February 1, 2012 at 11:16 AM

THIS!!!

Gunlock Bill on February 1, 2012 at 12:53 PM

No way Obama makes it to a billion. Thats bringing in 100 million a month for the next 9 months… This advantage was always overblown. It’s going to be Obama against Obama’s record. The Repubs could put anyone on the ballot and it wouldn’t matter. Obama has to run against the policies (Obamacare, stimulous, bailouts, fast and furious, Black Panther dismissals ect…) which most people find fault with. I don’t think money is going to be the factor most people are making it out to be. Some simple ads that highlight what Obama has done will do the trick.

buckeyerich on February 1, 2012 at 12:57 PM

How much does it cost to feed Big Mooch?
That’s gotta take a bite out of the fund.

justltl on February 1, 2012 at 1:03 PM

If ever there was an election where Mitt or Newt, or even Rick could win, this is it…if they blow this, it will be a disaster.

right2bright on February 1, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Hmm, good to know. It always did seem odd to me that Republicans hated the man, and that democrats were disappointed even if they were still minimally backing him, and yet he has a billion dollars to advertise with?

Yeah, glad to hear that was overblown.

WolvenOne on February 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Karl Rove made up that lie so we could send him for money. Hot air posted a vid where they said it was B.S.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on February 1, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Incidentally.

Before people get TOO excited about Obama’s poor state-to-state approval levels. The liberal spin on this is that Obama is still ahead of Romney in a couple of these states.

There are a few problems with this analysis however.

First, current numbers were taken in a climate in which not only were Republicans subject to very intense media scrutiny, but also when Republicans are very divided. Some people on the Republican side aren’t going to approve of a candidate they aren’t backing, or will say that they either won’t vote for said candidate in the general, or vote for Obama, or whatever.

Some of these people won’t disappear, that’s fine. There are always at least a few, and it is their right to stand on principal. However, by the time the general rolls around, most people will be on the same boat. The empirical data suggests that conservative turnout for McCain was actually pretty darn good, and McCain is substantially to the left of Romney. If McCain can get conservatives on-board, so can Romney.

The next problem with this analysis, is that every candidate that took part in the primary has low approval from Independents right now. Yes I know, Santorum is the exception, however Santorum was never in serious contention within the primary outside of Iowa. It’s easy to stay above negative attacks when people are leaving you alone.

The thing is, there there is going to be somewhat of a lull between when the primary wraps up, and when campaigns begin their blitz in the summer. The fact of the matter is that while both camps will be campaigning all year, neither side has the money to run a nationwide media blitz for nine months straight. Florida alone cost over ten million dollars for a single weeks media blitz. Candidates will not campaign in earnest until they have advertising on the air, and they won’t do that until they think they can sustain a media blitz until election day.

This gives the party both time to unify, and it gives the candidates time to repair their approval ratings. Simply being in the spotlight a little less for a few months will repair Romneys favorables somewhat among independents. Conversely being on the stage alone when things are going wrong is likely to hurt Obama.

I mean, case in point, we’re likely to see more bad news coming out of Europe, California is gonna go broke again in March, the price of gas is likely to go up, and its likely that some people are likely to realize the economy isn’t actually improving.

Obama has been given cover for a lot of crap like this, because of the attention given to our primary. Now that the primary is wrapping up more people will look at Obama’s shortcomings, and that will hurt him.

WolvenOne on February 1, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Obama! He’s a shoe in in 2012

If above average means 43%, then yes.

Scroll down to the map.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 1:29 PM

A lot of people do funny things in revisionist history to say Romney was a liberal/moderate in MA, but think: his fellow Republicans at the time gave him the respect of electing him president of the Republican Governors Association, he was the Scott Walker or Chris Christie of his time. We have all evolved since then, for one thing in MA we have had 5 years of a very short liberal Obama Mini Me, and many of us have refined our views given the recession.

Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Silly. Don’t you know history began when this blog opened it’s doors.

Yes, Romney was a Republican coup when he succeeded in becoming the Gov of MA. RomneyCare was the result of a movement by the GOP to address the rising cost of health care and insurance that put the solution in the hands of the States. HillaryCare had been shot down and the House had flipped to the GOP. This is why the Heritage Foundation and Newt voiced support for the mandate in the MA law.

I can only assume that those who can not see the difference between RomneyCare and ObamaCare also do not support the 10th Amendment or limits to the Commerce Clause, because State-based solutions to the problems of health care cost will only strengthen State’s rights and restrict the federal government’s reach into State’s business.

ObamaCare=RomneyCare is the wrong strategy and IMO a stupid strategy. What happened to Repeal and Replace? The Replace should be State solutions. What is the solution now because if you don’t think there is a need for one, you’re wrong.

Texas Gal on February 1, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Money shmoney… he has the MSM.

Yakko77 on February 1, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Hi Texas Gal, this reply veers off the blog post topic, sorry…

State-based solutions to the problems of health care cost will only strengthen State’s rights and restrict the federal government’s reach into State’s business.

That is where we were before ObamaCare, and you know a lot of people in Tea Party happy states, were whining about their state health insurance laws, but not doing anything about it. They were whining that big insurance companies make the rules, and sounding a lot like Obama. In my own state they were whining that they didn’t have Single Payer. (And the were whining that if you bought a cheap Romney plan it maxed out at 30K coverage and was not cadillac plans.) Obama Care is $750K and requires waivers now. MA has trumped them somehow the legislature here has said something about plans having to be able to absorb $2 million. This is crazy.

I don’t care for the Mandate, the mandate answers only one question in MA and that is the repeated vote for Universal health care. Probably only people living in Berkley CA know what I am talking about.

I would be for reform that defines health insurance as only catastrophic hospitalization and critical needs. Every thing else is a Health Plan. Then I might be for people having a policy, maybe even connected to their home owners policy, for serious injury/catastrophic illness. You can only insure things that have a infrequent occurence not things that happen every year.

It should be no one’s business after the catastrophic care, what you have in your Health Plan. Spa. Cosmetic Surgery. Health Club. Yearly check ups. And health savings accounts sound good for that. That is not something we should be giving to our public sector employees as a matter of course.

For people in some states, who cannot buy insurance now, there is no transition to Obama Care, there is no way to get there from where they are now, and it is causing turmoil. In Massachusetts, the only thing we felt was the deductibles going away, and premiums out of pocket coming out of your paycheck rather than in the doctor’s office, and the anticipation that everyone on Romney’s subsidized private insurance being rolled by Duval Patrick onto free cadillac plans on Medicaid thanks to John Kerry and President Obama. We got a Corn Husker Kickback to pay for it…and your state didn’t.

Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 2:00 PM

When you know your (I can’t say enemy) counterpart.

You can defeat them.

Key West Reader on February 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Why not? That’s what they call us.

runawayyyy on February 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

CA TEA PARTY SCORES MAJOR VICTORY!No matter what the media meme is today, indicating that Romney’s primary win means a Tea Party loss, we are busy in all 57 states and are seeing successes! Our #1 goal: Defeating Obama in Nov. 2012.

Mutnodjmet on February 1, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Just who doesn’t believe that the Democrats aren’t stonewalling their independent superPAC contributors like Crossroads did in 2010.

J_Crater on February 1, 2012 at 2:21 PM

“Obama money advantage disappearing”~~Ed Morrissey

You got to check under the mattress.

HEY, DID ANYONE CHECK UNDER THE MATTRESS?

timberline on February 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Doubtful.

Bammie WILL lose (the similarities to Carter’s reelection bid are striking). It’s just a damned shame that we couldn’t replace his worthless, redistributionist libtard @ss with a true Conservative.

Tim_CA on February 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Obama will beat Romney. It is 1/2 Romney’s lousy record and 1/2 Conservatives that will not come out for him/voter excitement.

If Romney is the nominee, I vote for Obama to stop him from destroying the GOP

M_J_S on February 1, 2012 at 2:35 PM

I don’t care for the Mandate, the mandate answers only one question in MA and that is the repeated vote for Universal health care. Probably only people living in Berkley CA know what I am talking about.

I would be for reform that defines health insurance as only catastrophic hospitalization and critical needs. Every thing else is a Health Plan. Then I might be for people having a policy, maybe even connected to their home owners policy, for serious injury/catastrophic illness. You can only insure things that have a infrequent occurence not things that happen every year.

It should be no one’s business after the catastrophic care, what you have in your Health Plan. Spa. Cosmetic Surgery. Health Club. Yearly check ups. And health savings accounts sound good for that. That is not something we should be giving to our public sector employees as a matter of course.

Fleuries on February 1, 2012 at 2:00 PM

I totally agree with you, especially this part. I don’t like mandates either, however, I understand that at the time many were looking for a solution to solve the problem of those who were choose to be uninsured and could afford their own coverage rather that passing the cost of their care to those who do purchase their own coverage. It’s a complicated issue and you can’t ignore the history/evolution of the problem of rising cost and the actions that have contributed to the problem if we are going to fix it.

IMO the fix is at the State level. We’ve done a little here with TORT reform but not enough.

Yes, the Democrats took the MA plan and manipulated it to use it as a spring board into a single payer universal heath care plan. Obama’s reference to RomneyCare being the model was intended to be a selling point because it was a developed under a Republican governor … basically they wanted to use it as a Trojan Horse for ObamaCare. But the MA plan is not today what it was under Romney is it?

Too bad the GOP didn’t take the opportunity when they had the control under Bush 43. He put forth a good basic legislative plan that would have benefited the States with their own solutions. But Obama/Pelosi stopped that dead in it’s tracks by shoving ObamaCare down our throat. Now we need a Repeal and Replace plan and demagoguery of RomneyCare as created under Gov Romney is not going to achieve that. The lesson is in how the federal government under Obama and Pelosi was able to reach out and interfere .. IMO they basically saw the potential and stopped it.

Texas Gal on February 1, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Mutnodjmet on February 1, 2012 at 2:18 PM

While disheartened that we aren’t going to get a really solid conservative/Tea party candidate running for POTUS it’s the Congress and local offices we need to win. Just like in 2010 when the MSM was trying to dismiss the Tea party or accuse it senselessly of things like racism, the Tea party came out ahead in a pretty major way. Yes, they didn’t win back the Senate but they did take several seats back. In 2012, it’s time for the Tea Party to finish the job.

Yakko77 on February 1, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Not from what I hear…Obama raised 80 million in last quarter…coupled with DNC.

We must match him $ to $ to have a clear shot in November.

Redford on February 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I just read today that the Reps have 500 millions available for the nominee (and that’s just now), can’t link, am at work, but will look for it later and will link… I think it was NYT or WSJ, not sure…that included money raised by the PACs and other Rep groups, and I think there will be a lot more coming…

jimver on February 1, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Too bad the GOP didn’t take the opportunity when they had the control under Bush 43. He put forth a good basic legislative plan that would have benefited the States with their own solutions. But Obama/Pelosi stopped that dead in it’s tracks by shoving ObamaCare down our throat. Now we need a Repeal and Replace plan and demagoguery of RomneyCare as created under Gov Romney is not going to achieve that. The lesson is in how the federal government under Obama and Pelosi was able to reach out and interfere .. IMO they basically saw the potential and stopped it.

Texas Gal on February 1, 2012 at 2:36 PM

very correct analysis, couldn’t agree more…

jimver on February 1, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Hey Wolven, Hate to burst your bubble, but conservatives and independents,like myself, in America are SICK of holding their noses and voting for “the next guy in line,” that the RepublicRAT establishment keeps jamming down our throats. And don’t hand me that crap about RINO Romney being the most electable, HE IS NOT!!!
Soros and his OWS will beat Willard (from the RAT movie of the same name), the quintescential 1%er, senseless, Axelrod and the MSM will throw Willard under the bus with never-ending articles in print and segment after segment on the air about Racism in Mormonism/Cultism in Mormonism, and the J@ck@ss-In-Chief will silence Willard by thanking him for his most welcome inspiration on ObamneyCare.
Willard will be toast even before his acceptance speech!?! THANKS, STUPID Party!!!

Colatteral Damage on February 1, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Ed, You continue to repeat this mistake: “… even apart from the usual Democratic advantages of the news media…”

The correct term is, “Alleged news media” or “So-called news media”, or even “… news media stooges”.

Regards

Louis on February 1, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Can only hope the GOP/candidates start highlighting the next 2 years economic outlook provided by the “unbiased” CBO yesterday. Obama is no where near cratering in all states if the gloom/doom from that report gets well know.

chickasaw42 on February 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

I love the picture that accompanies this article. It looks like O’Bumbles is just about to start crying and call for his Mommy.

Moose Drool on February 1, 2012 at 5:15 PM

This post displays a sweet but very naive view toward campaign fundraising.

This would be very interesting if, indeed, the Democrats played by the reporting rules and followed the law.

But shown by the deliberate, purposeful decision by the Obama-Biden ’08 campaign to DISABLE the anti-fraud mechanisms that cross-checked ZIP codes of online credit-card donors — which cross-check would have weeded out many contributions made illegally through bogus identifications and by foreign contributors — the Dems don’t play by the rules.

The deep pockets behind Obama will find a way to donate and spend whatever it takes to out-spend the GOP, and if you think you’re seeing the true state of their campaign funding from the campaign’s own reports, even augmented by reporting done on behalf of PACs, you might still believe in “hope and change we can believe in” and six percent unemployment.

Beldar on February 1, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Shorter version: If you believe their numbers, you’re the sucker they’re hoping for.

Beldar on February 1, 2012 at 5:44 PM

C’mon, you know that Obama & Co will “accidentally” disable the address verification software for credit card transactions and get an unlimited flood of foreign money in between the last reporting period and the election.

Texastoast on February 1, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I can’t believe so many sites are talking about Gallup’s 2011 state approval numbers. The problem is that those are averages from the entire year. Obama was in the tank for much of 2011 but has rebounded and is over 50% approval (according to Rasmussen) now. I live in Wisconsin and there was a poll a few weeks ago that showed Obama crushing Romney by 8 pts, which takes WI out of swing state status. And if you think this was a liberal-slanted poll, it also showed Gov Walker defeating his challengers and his approval back over 50%. If the election was held last Nov, Romney might have won. If it was held today, Obama wins. With the approval ratings trajectory, in November, Obama wins in a cakewalk.

gumbyandpokey on February 1, 2012 at 6:56 PM

After the next couple scandals come out his money will dry up because the dems won’t throw their money away on a lost cause.

The only way they can push Hillary forward is to move the Zero out of the way. They see his chances growing slimmer by the day…

dogsoldier on February 2, 2012 at 6:46 AM

gumbyandpokey on February 1, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Its also been leaked that the Zero’s internal polls look horrific too. So this is not just one datapoint.

dogsoldier on February 2, 2012 at 6:48 AM

Money advantage? Just like American tax payer dollars….

easyt65 on February 2, 2012 at 8:35 AM

For a year, Republicans have worried about having to face a billion-dollar Re-Elect Obama machine in the fall.

Only proves my theory that the Presidency is a “bought & paid for commodity” by the loudest special interest group.

The majority have not ruled in decades.

askwhatif on February 2, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Washington state and Rhode Island were the two states that dropped below 50% approval last year.

Ah, remember when gubernatorial candidate Caprio – D, told Obutmunch to “stick his endorsement…” and “Stop using RI as your ATM machine?” ?
Soon after, O flew into Woonsocket for an hour, traveled to the East Side of Prov. for a $7,000/plate dinner, and spent 20 minutes. Then informed his guests that he would not be eating with them, as he had to go home and scoop poop.
He took $1,000,000 home that day.

True story.

askwhatif on February 2, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Comment pages: 1 2