Roller coaster continues: Mitt up by 9 in Florida

posted at 9:50 am on January 27, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

If it’s Tuesday, this must be Belgium. But it’s actually Friday, so it must still be Florida. And with another day we get another fresh round of polling showing one of two things: either the good citizens of Florida are prone to fits of multiple personality disorder or the pollsters are just having some fun with us. Close on the heels of Romney being up, then Newt being up, then it being essentially a tie, then trending back in Romney’s favor, Quinnipiac tells us that Mitt is surging back into the lead.

Just four days before the nation’s first big-state presidential primary,former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney opens up a 38 – 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll taken Wednesday and released today. Only 6 percent are undecided, but 32 percent say they might change their mind by Tuesday.

This compares to results of a January 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 36 percent of likely primary voters to Gingrich’s 34 percent. Wednesday’s survey showed Gingrich ahead 40 – 34 percent among voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary.

Ron Paul takes the bronze medal with 14% and Rick Santorum is bringing up the rear at 12. These results are looking more solid, though, given that the numbers match up pretty well with this poll from VSS which gives the nod to Mitt over Newt 40 to 31.

As previously noted, this does seem to be in keeping with the most recent trend, but the changes have been rapid. In the demographics department, the big shift here is along gender lines. Men, who were backing Newt 37 to 33 in a similar poll only 48 hours earlier, now line up in favor of Mitt 36 to 29 against Gingrich. Romney’s favorability numbers are back up also, rising to a 60 to 28 break point.

The first release didn’t include the full cross-tabs (though I’m sure Ed will get them before long) but since the two data points we’re looking at both come from the same polling firm, they’re probably similar. This is a rapid and rather dramatic shift, but it does continue the most recent trend. After dipping in the polls following Gingrich’s strong showing in South Carolina, Mitt seems to be clawing his way back up. Last night’s debate probably won’t change that much either, given most of the buzz I’m seeing about Newt mostly falling flat. Four days to go… hang on to your hats!


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Oh, and polls showing obama beating anyone right now is just ridiculous. Romney will get demolished by obama. Newt will at least give him a fight.

Hard Right on January 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Based on what? Romney has been taking to Gingrich the last two debates and has in previous ones.

I’ll also note that ONLY Romney has been going after Obama and Obama has been returning it in kind. Many of you from your comments I can tell, have not done any research on Romney and read or viewed his attacks on Obama. He just penned a fairly scathing letter to Obama as he did in FL, as he did in NV, etc whenever Obama heads to a certain State to make an appearance. Romney ALWAYS writes a letter “greeting” the POTUS and what his policies have done to that particular State.

So to say that Romney does not fight is just plain ignorant of the facts. go to mittromney.com and you can see for yourself.

g2825m on January 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

He just penned a fairly scathing letter to Obama as he visits Michigan…

that is what I meant to say above.

g2825m on January 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Don’t be silly. RINOS HATE those more Conservative then they are. If you’re to their left they are ok with that.

Hard Right on January 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Right on target!! Conservatives & Tea Party Members are trashed.

If you ever wonder if the D’s & R’s work together, you don’t need to wonder. They both are against the C’s & TP’s. Causes one to go, Hmmmmm

bluefox on January 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM

I just hope Mitt is as nasty n angry to Obama as he is right now towards Newt.

B Man on January 27, 2012 at 9:54 AM

If you define “nasty” as calm yet devastating presentation of evidence, then Mitt has already been at least as “nasty” toward Obama throughout the past several months.

Look at his YouTube videos for reassurance.

itsnotaboutme on January 27, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Oh, and polls showing obama beating anyone right now is just ridiculous. Romney will get demolished by obama. Newt will at least give him a fight.

Hard Right on January 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

..Newt — for all of his appeal to those who like angry retorts to the liberal press — may have gone to the well once too often:

The former U.S. House speaker’s runaway win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday was attributed in large part to the way he went after the mainstream media in general and debate moderators in particular.

But Gingrich’s jab at Thursday’s moderator, Wolf Blitzer of CNN, failed to stick as he, Romney, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Texas Representative Ron Paul took part in the final debate before Tuesday’s Republican primary.

“This is a nonsense question,” Gingrich huffed when Blitzer asked about Romney’s tax and financial disclosures. “How about if the four of us agree for the rest of the evening, we’ll actually talk about issues that relate to governing America?” Gingrich said.

The comment drew moderate applause but Blitzer did not back down.

Mr. Speaker, you made an issue of this, this week, when you said that, ‘He lives in a world of Swiss bank and Cayman Island bank accounts.’ I didn’t say that. You did.

Gingrich said he was “perfectly happy to say that on an interview on some TV show. But this is a national debate.”

I think the liberal MSM may have Newt zeroed and will be firing for effect in future — even presidential debates. Aside from that, he’s got nothing. His on-stage tantrums will have a lessening impact on the audience and certainly not register will with moderates and disaffected Dems. (And, let’s face it, irrespective of how Newt arrives at the nomination, he WILL need those votes to beat Obama.)

The War Planner on January 27, 2012 at 11:54 AM

fight like a girl on January 27, 2012 at 11:42 AM

.
Newt became a Pariah back in the 90′s by terribly mismanaging his speakership and failed to put aside ego and work with others to achieve results. Not a resume highlight of leadership. Since then he has shifted from riding Reagan’s coattails, to marginalizing Reagan and adopting – as he states it- a more progressive TR-FDR approach to the world. He is not the conservative messiah he is trying to “morph” into. And he is the ultimate insider DC operative. Newt can rage at the “establishment- but he aint no Tea Party person either.

FlaMurph on January 27, 2012 at 11:56 AM

But Gingrich’s jab at Thursday’s moderator, Wolf Blitzer of CNN, failed to stick as he, Romney, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Texas Representative Ron Paul took part in the final debate before Tuesday’s Republican primary.

“This is a nonsense question,” Gingrich huffed when Blitzer asked about Romney’s tax and financial disclosures. “How about if the four of us agree for the rest of the evening, we’ll actually talk about issues that relate to governing America?” Gingrich said.

The comment drew moderate applause but Blitzer did not back down.

“Mr. Speaker, you made an issue of this, this week, when you said that, ‘He lives in a world of Swiss bank and Cayman Island bank accounts.’ I didn’t say that. You did.”

Newt is in trouble if folks simply anticipate his “This is a nonsense question” response and hold him to his own words. Romney also did a decent job on that front last night, which is a good sign, as he won’t get help from a moderator when Obama engages in similar doublespeak.

EconomicNeocon on January 27, 2012 at 12:05 PM

bluefox on January 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Could it just be that those that worked with him are telling us how REALLY is?

We all have had jobs before where the employer calls up the previous employer to find out about the employee. The members of Congress are speaking loud and clear BY NOT SAYING Anything with their support! The former members are giving us the BUYER BEWARE!

g2825m on January 27, 2012 at 11:35 AM

There are some that actually did work with Reagan & Newt. Most of the attack ads come from those that did not. To get a proper perspective, one must look at who is attacking and why. Then compare those statements to those that actually did work with Reagan & Newt.

This site has great info and within the article are many active links that can be read.

Criticism is fine, but lies and distortions are not.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/01/nancy-reagan-1995-ronnie-turned-that-torch-over-to-newt/

bluefox on January 27, 2012 at 12:08 PM

So to say that Romney does not fight is just plain ignorant of the facts. go to mittromney.com and you can see for yourself.

g2825m on January 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

That doesn’t fit the Tea Party approved narrative, in which Romney has never done anything but pen glowing love letters to Obama.

So you will be ignored.

Vyce on January 27, 2012 at 12:10 PM

What happens to this country has become secondary to a republican turf war where everyone is jockeying for position.

fight like a girl on January 27, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Yes, pretty much.

Don’t be silly. RINOS HATE those more Conservative then they are. If you’re to their left they are ok with that.

Hard Right on January 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I don’t hate you-all.

Although after 2010, when the “true con” wing took over the Tea Party and made it known that anyone who wasn’t hard-line ideological conservative, in both financial AND social philosophy, was no longer welcome within the conservative movement, us moderated certainly did become marginalized. That wasn’t such a big thing, until the purity purges began, in which case some of you decided to let us know that not only were we no longer welcome, but we were essentially evil people, as bad as the worst liberal activist, because we believe in things like, say, the rights of homosexuals to marry same-sex partners (to use an example).

After that, it just became hard to relate to any of you at all. Because despite your assertion, your side has no shortage of hatred in your hearts for people like me.

Vyce on January 27, 2012 at 12:19 PM

And your knowledge of what Newt did before is not accurate. During his time as Speaker, pork increased substantially. And Newt entered congress being worth 10,000 dollars and left being worth millions.

fight like a girl on January 27, 2012 at 11:42 AM

My knowledge of Newt comes from watching what he actually did starting in 1994. In addition, there are articles out now by those that were actually working with Newt & can vouch for what he did. Unlike many articles & videos doctored to put forth an agenda. I would recommend this site to get a better perspective.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/01/nancy-reagan-1995-ronnie-turned-that-torch-over-to-newt/

I research all Candidates, pros & cons. Then I look to see who is pro and why; then who is con and why. The ones speaking out for and against are subject to research also, to make sure their motive is correct. Then I make my decision on which Candidate I will vote for in the Primary. It takes a lot of time, but that is the best way I know to come to the best decision I can.

bluefox on January 27, 2012 at 12:21 PM

fight like a girl on January 27, 2012 at 11:33 AM

How you can say that Newt is an Establishment Candidate is mind boggling. It is the Establishment that are attacking him!! Where are all of these Establishment members singing his praises? No, they hate him.

You only have to read the comments here on HA to see that I am correct. Are the Romney supporters singing praises of Newt? Are the Newt supporters singing the praises of Romney? But you say the Establishment members are for Newt. Why are they backing Romney then and trashing Newt?

That makes no sense whatever. We’re done here. Continue to copy & paste your illogical opinions but those that can think will.

bluefox on January 27, 2012 at 12:29 PM

The above quote fits in with typical Gingrich voters who are anti-capitalist.

and some here on HA call themselves conservative for smacking down another person because of his success?

g2825m on January 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Where in this comment did I smack down another person because of his success?

So the filthy rich guy who was responsible for Romneycare will run against the class warfare guy who gave us Obamacare.

fogw on January 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

To be clear, I don’t have any qualms with Romney being rich, filthy rich or super rich. Anyone who posts on this site will tell you I am a capitalist and staunch conservative. Kudos to Romney. Just because I personally prefer Newt to Romney does not make me an anti-capitalist.

Now, you know who does have a problem with anyone who is filthy rich (with an R after their name)? Barack Obama. He has been giving the same campaign speech for over 6 months now, it’s class warfare, and it’s directed at the candidate he hopes to oppose, Mitt Romney. If you can’t see that you are blind. He wants the filthy rich guy. I don’t. He does. Understand my comment better now?

What else can we thank Obama for, and absolutely have to crush him on during the upcoming presidential debates? Obamacare. And who is the last candidate we want debating him on this crucial issue, this monster legislation that is, and will forever be dragging our economy into the abyss? That would be the guy who gave us Romneycare. Romney, will lose from the get go to Obama on this issue. He can’t fight it, he created it in his own state as governor.

Take another look at my comment, and next time don’t be so quick to judge. It meant nothing more than “Obama’s going to get the opponent he wants“.

I hope I have enlightened you grasshopper.

BTW, if Romney wins he gets my vote. I held my nose for McCain.

cheers,

fogw on January 27, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Although after 2010, when the “true con” wing took over the Tea Party and made it known that anyone who wasn’t hard-line ideological conservative, in both financial AND social philosophy, was no longer welcome within the conservative movement, us moderated certainly did become marginalized. That wasn’t such a big thing, until the purity purges began, in which case some of you decided to let us know that not only were we no longer welcome, but we were essentially evil people, as bad as the worst liberal activist, because we believe in things like, say, the rights of homosexuals to marry same-sex partners (to use an example).

After that, it just became hard to relate to any of you at all. Because despite your assertion, your side has no shortage of hatred in your hearts for people like me.

Vyce on January 27, 2012 at 12:19 PM

+1

haner on January 27, 2012 at 1:01 PM

agree from someone sitting in Afghanistan…

It has been amazing to me having spent 7 years in Iraq and this current year here in AFG that Iraqis and Afghanis take their vote a little more seriously than Americans do because we have become to comfortable. Many of these people risked literally their lives to go to the polls and yet, American Idol ranks of more importance than our Constitutional duty to vote.

g2825m on January 27, 2012 at 11:28 AM

What’s amazing to me, is the war you are fighting…and the time you spend Googling and posting on this site.
You spend more time on Romney threads than anyone else…more than anyone working.
I don’t post half of what you post, and I am semi-retired, with a lot of time on my hands.
You must sleep just 2 or 3 hours a day, serving our country and serving Romney…it’s hard to get my hands around how either you are obsessed…you aren’t doing what you say you are doing…or you have an incredible amount of time that just happens to be when their is a Romney thread.
CSdeven, I get, she has been doing this for years and doesn’t work…but you are new to HotAir, and you spend much more time than even her.
It will be interesting to see if you are still around after the elections…I put my money on that you won’t be…and so far, I have been 100% correct when I make those predictions…and I put my money on you are not who you claim to be…

right2bright on January 27, 2012 at 1:22 PM

You know, I’ve been saying for awhile now that those polls that showed Romney down 9 in Florida were largely illusory, and it looks like I was right. What happened is you had a series of polls that were mostly conducted when Gingrich was getting absurd amounts of free publicity. In that environment its not usual to see candidates get a bump, but because this bump usually comes among voters likely to change their minds, it doesn’t mean much. If said candidate cannot back up that publicity with a solid performance, that bump is just as likely as not to disappear.

This was always going to be the problem Gingrich had. He does okay at debates, sometimes, but he is a horrible campaigner and gets angry when people scrutinize his record.

For such a fundamentally flawed candidate to sustain his success, his opponents would have to have been even more flawed. This simply wasn’t the case.

WolvenOne on January 27, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Although after 2010, when the “true con” wing took over the Tea Party and made it known that anyone who wasn’t hard-line ideological conservative, in both financial AND social philosophy, was no longer welcome within the conservative movement, us moderated certainly did become marginalized. That wasn’t such a big thing, until the purity purges began, in which case some of you decided to let us know that not only were we no longer welcome, but we were essentially evil people, as bad as the worst liberal activist, because we believe in things like, say, the rights of homosexuals to marry same-sex partners (to use an example).

After that, it just became hard to relate to any of you at all. Because despite your assertion, your side has no shortage of hatred in your hearts for people like me.

Vyce on January 27, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Well, since you detested the Tea Party long before the 2010 election and have been a mocking “moderate” towards ANY form of conservatism, pardon me if I fail to see the need to wipe away your crocodile tears.

ebrown2 on January 27, 2012 at 1:34 PM

This was always going to be the problem Gingrich had. He does okay at debates, sometimes, but he is a horrible campaigner and gets angry when people scrutinize his record.

For such a fundamentally flawed candidate to sustain his success, his opponents would have to have been even more flawed. This simply wasn’t the case.

WolvenOne on January 27, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Mittens, for all his manifestly fatal flaws, has the intellectual discipline that Newtie lacks.

ebrown2 on January 27, 2012 at 1:35 PM

I really don’t how Newtzilla survives the latest round of nukes. The Moderates look like they’re going to win this one.

TitularHead on January 27, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Commands from the Ruling Class Republican Establishment (with help from our pals: the d-cRAT socialists and their stooges/puppets in the socialist media):

There is nothing wrong with your mind. Do not attempt to think for yourself. We are controlling the information provided for the Republican primaries. If we wish to destroy a conservative, we will bring up the volume of attacks. If we wish to support a RINO, we will tune it to a pleasant sound. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image of a conservative, make it flutter. We can change the focus of a conservative to a soft blur or sharpen it for an establishment RINO to crystal clarity. For the remainder of the primary season, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your mind. You are about to participate in a great adventure – the approval of the RINO that we establishment clowns have selected to win the nomination. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to… ANOTHER RULING-CLASS ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE LOSER.

(FYI: each and every Ruling Class Establishment Repub candidate, like RINO romney(care) has LOST the election: mccain, dole, george h.w. bush, ford….)

TeaPartyNation on January 27, 2012 at 1:43 PM

I really don’t how Newtzilla survives the latest round of nukes. The Moderates look like they’re going to win this one.

TitularHead on January 27, 2012 at 1:41 PM

…and America loses, this time -permanently.-

ebrown2 on January 27, 2012 at 1:52 PM

FLORIDA!! The Republicrat establishment is infecting you with the dreaded LEMMING bacteria, MHIT-FOR-BRAINS!!! This dreaded LEMMING disease robs you of ANY sense of reason, and it steals your ability to exercise ANY form of common sense!?! The Republicrat establishment tried to infect South Carolina with the dreaded LEMMING disease, MHIT-FOR-BRAINS, but the TEA folks took the antidote at the very last minute!?! Florida, protect yourselves from the dreaded LEMMING disease MHIT-FOR-BRAINS now!?! Take the antidote before it’s too late!!!!!

Colatteral Damage on January 27, 2012 at 1:58 PM

…and America loses, this time -permanently.-

ebrown2 on January 27, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Maybe. It sure looks like we’re going to put one of our Squishes up against one of their Socialists again.

I don’t really put too much faith in any man (or woman). There may be a silver lining here somewhere, thought it’s hard to see.

You know, it took Jimmy Carter to give us Reagan; Clinton to give us the House back for the first time in 40 years; and 0bama to give us the Tea Party. Republican squishes (i.e. Ford, Dole, or McCain) wouldn’t have done that.

Whether we can survive four more years of 0bama remains to be seen. The Founders did a great job setting up this system. I’ll admit though, the libs and the squishes sure seem determined to drive it over the cliff.

TitularHead on January 27, 2012 at 2:02 PM

One last thing.

I’m happy to see Newt go down flaming for a whole other reason than him being a horrible general election candidate. The whole reason he did so well in South Carolina, was because he became an tool in a turf war between the two biggest factions in the Republican party. The problem with this, is that while the Tea Party elevated him, Newt wasn’t a tea party candidate. If anything he is to the left of Romney on many fronts, and uses leftist attacks anytime he feels it suits his purposes.

This is the last candidate in the world the Tea Party should have backed. Electing him as the nominee would have de-legitimized the tea party. It would have shown them as a group of political hacks, more interested in jockeying for position rather then standing up for ideals.

Regardless of whether or not he won the Presidency, Newt would have effectively destroyed the tea-party, and that isn’t acceptable. The tea party and I may have our differences, but I adore the movement and support it entirely. It is vital to keep the tea party alive, so I’m glad to see its attempt at suicide prevented.

WolvenOne on January 27, 2012 at 2:06 PM

FINAL DRUDGE POLL RESULTS… READERS FROM FLORIDA ONLY: ROMNEY 34.78%… SANTORUM 24.61%… PAUL 22.7%… GINGRICH 17.92%…

haner on January 27, 2012 at 2:19 PM

One last thing.

I’m happy to see Newt go down flaming for a whole other reason than him being a horrible general election candidate. The whole reason he did so well in South Carolina, was because he became an tool in a turf war between the two biggest factions in the Republican party. The problem with this, is that while the Tea Party elevated him, Newt wasn’t a tea party candidate. If anything he is to the left of Romney on many fronts, and uses leftist attacks anytime he feels it suits his purposes.

This is the last candidate in the world the Tea Party should have backed. Electing him as the nominee would have de-legitimized the tea party. It would have shown them as a group of political hacks, more interested in jockeying for position rather then standing up for ideals.

Regardless of whether or not he won the Presidency, Newt would have effectively destroyed the tea-party, and that isn’t acceptable. The tea party and I may have our differences, but I adore the movement and support it entirely. It is vital to keep the tea party alive, so I’m glad to see its attempt at suicide prevented.

WolvenOne on January 27, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Bingo! Newt thinks government exists to do “neat things,” not fulfill an extremely restricted remit confined to national defense and enforcement of the Bill of Rights. He also completely lacks intellectual discipline and would be a terrible leader.

ebrown2 on January 27, 2012 at 2:25 PM

FINAL DRUDGE POLL RESULTS… READERS FROM FLORIDA ONLY: ROMNEY 34.78%… SANTORUM 24.61%… PAUL 22.7%… GINGRICH 17.92%…

haner on January 27, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I recall someone getting banned for that very activity you are partaking in.

astonerii on January 27, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Conservatives will make it a strong point to stay home for Mitt and Obama will do the rest to stop him.

M_J_S on January 27, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Hey folks, if you say you are against Wall Street bailouts, why is it that your boy, RINO Romney is already bought and paid for by Wall Street, Hmmmm??? $367,200 from Goldman alone!!! HEY DUMMIES< A VOTE FOR RINO Romney (aka Obama-Lite) IS A VOTE FOR MORE TAXPAYER BAILOUTS!!!!! Are you folks that naive???

Colatteral Damage on January 27, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Didn’t Newt’s downturn start right after he echoed Perry’s “heartless” comments while describing those Americans who favor law enforcement over amnesty for foreign invaders?

Maybe Newt should have read this poll before he wrote point 6 of his “immigration plan“. Sure is a plan for immigration — of the illegal kind. Point 6 would be a giant magnet for those considering illegally crossing the border.

And I used to think Newt was smart — hard to believe that any sane person thinks that rewarding criminals (illegal aliens) with their ill-gotten goods (residency in our country) will result in a decrease in that criminal activity. I wonder if Newt or anyone else espousing this crazy policy (Bush, McCain, Kennedy, Obama, et al) can point out a single area of human activity where this strategy has worked. Duh.

Attrition through enforcement is how you do it, and here is an illegal alien explaining why it works.

fred5678 on January 28, 2012 at 2:04 AM

http://www.mittsbloodmoney.com/

Mitt Romney will never be president

georgealbert on January 28, 2012 at 1:50 PM

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